Group 1 - International crude oil prices saw a significant increase, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) closing at $58.25 per ton, up 3.48%, and Brent crude at $62.68 per ton, up 3.93% [1] - Precious metal prices continued to decline, with gold priced at $4478.4 per ounce, up 0.49%, while silver dropped to $76.35 per ounce, down 2.35% [3] - Base metals experienced notable declines, with nickel falling to $17,065 per ton, down 3.31%, and tin at $43,435 per ton, down 2.04% [3] Group 2 - Uranium (U3O8) prices increased slightly to $81.95 per pound, up 0.18% [2] - Iron ore prices showed mixed results, with 62% grade iron ore at $107.95 per ton, down 0.92%, while 58% grade iron ore remained stable around $95 per ton [3] - Copper futures on the London Metal Exchange (LME) decreased to $12,687.20 per ton, down 1.38%, while aluminum rose slightly to $3,087.50 per ton, up 0.16% [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a significant increase in the non-ferrous metal industry index and specific stocks, driven by a major mineral discovery in Xinjiang, which is expected to impact the market positively [1][2] - The non-ferrous metal industry index (399395) rose by 2.32%, with notable stock performances including Xiamen Tungsten (up 8.97%), Hailiang Co. (up 7.75%), and Chihong Zn & Ge (up 6.81%) [1] - The discovery of the Salt Lake 27 mineral group, with an average grade of 30.73%, marks the largest mineral find in the region in nearly 40 years, particularly for chromium ore, which is crucial for various high-tech industries [1] Group 2 - Tianfeng Securities indicates that the tightening supply-demand dynamics will lead to higher price elasticity for aluminum, with expectations for stable price increases and sustained high profits in the electrolytic aluminum sector [2] - The electrolytic aluminum companies have passed their peak capital expenditure phase, suggesting a favorable environment for increased dividends and overall investment optimization in the sector [2] - The copper supply is projected to grow at 2% in 2026, with challenges in the smelting sector due to historically low TC/RC levels, which may limit production capacity [2] Group 3 - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the non-ferrous metal industry index account for 51.65% of the index, including major companies like Zijin Mining and China Aluminum [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market volume remains high, but large funds control the market rhythm well. This round of the market does not follow the "crazy bull" pattern. The narrowing short - term gains do not affect the long - bull situation, and investors can actively seize investment opportunities in stock index futures [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - **Macro - economic Information**: In China, the Deputy Minister of Finance, Liao Min, met with the CEO of the London Stock Exchange Group, indicating that China's economy will be stable and improving in 2025. In the United States, the number of initial jobless claims last week rose to 208,000, slightly lower than market expectations. The number of layoffs in December last year was 35,553, the lowest in 17 months. The trade deficit in October 2025 narrowed by 39% month - on - month to $29.4 billion, the lowest since June 2009 [1] - **Spot Market**: A - share indexes fluctuated. The Shanghai Composite Index had 15 consecutive positive lines but fell 0.07% to close at 4082.98 points on the day. The ChiNext Index fell 0.82%. Most sector indexes declined, with National Defense and Military Industry, Media, Building Decoration, and Real Estate leading the gains, while Non - Banking Finance, Non - ferrous Metals, and Communication leading the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets remained at 2.8 trillion yuan. Overseas, the three major US stock indexes closed mixed, with the Dow Jones rising 0.55% to 49,266.11 points and the Nasdaq falling 0.44% to 23,480.02 points [1] - **Futures Market**: In the futures market, the basis of stock index futures rebounded. The trading volume and open interest of IF and IM increased simultaneously [2] 3.2 Strategy - Although the short - term gains are narrowing, it does not affect the long - bull pattern. Investors can actively seize investment opportunities in stock index futures [3] 3.3 Charts 3.3.1 Macro - economic Charts - Include charts showing the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, US Treasury yields and A - share trends, RMB exchange rates and A - share trends, and US Treasury yields and A - share style trends [6][7][9] 3.3.2 Spot Market Tracking Charts - **Stock Index Performance**: The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4082.98, down 0.07%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13,959.48, down 0.51%; the ChiNext Index closed at 3302.31, down 0.82%; the CSI 300 Index closed at 4737.65, down 0.82%; the SSE 50 Index closed at 3122.06, down 0.73%; the CSI 500 Index closed at 7894.54, up 0.25%; the CSI 1000 Index closed at 7971.59, up 0.82% [12] - Also include charts of the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and margin trading balances [6][13] 3.3.3 Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of IF was 119,688, an increase of 6990; the open interest was 288,744, an increase of 5981. The trading volume of IH was 44,844, a decrease of 2701; the open interest was 91,182, an increase of 937. The trading volume of IC was 147,847, a decrease of 1682; the open interest was 294,237, a decrease of 8269. The trading volume of IM was 196,014, an increase of 18,492; the open interest was 374,177, an increase of 2896 [14] - **Basis**: The basis of each contract of IF, IH, IC, and IM showed different changes. For example, the basis of IF's current - month contract was 0.15, an increase of 4.02 [40] - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM also showed different changes. For example, the spread between the next - month and current - month contracts of IF was - 11.60, an increase of 0.20 [45]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the precious and industrial metals sector is experiencing a significant bullish trend, driven by increased investment and favorable market conditions [1][3][4] - The Huabao ETF (159876) saw a price increase of 3.33%, reaching a historical high, with a net subscription of 52.8 million units and a total inflow of 279 million yuan over the past 10 days [1][8] - Key stocks in the sector, particularly those related to commercial aerospace, have shown strong performance, with Yunnan Zhenye hitting the daily limit, and other companies like Xiamen Tungsten and Chihong Zn & Ge also experiencing significant gains [1][8] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for the 14th consecutive month, indicating a stable foundation for a gold bull market that is expected to extend to related non-ferrous and strategic metals [3][10] - Analysts predict that the U.S. Federal Reserve's dovish monetary policy will likely lead to gradual interest rate cuts, creating a favorable environment for the non-ferrous metals market [3][10] - The ongoing U.S. rate-cutting cycle and liquidity easing are expected to benefit non-ferrous metal prices, with supply constraints and increased demand from traditional and emerging sectors, such as AI and energy storage, contributing to a potential price surge [3][10] Group 3 - The Huabao ETF and its linked funds cover a wide range of metals, including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, allowing investors to capture the overall sector's beta performance across different economic cycles [4][11] - The current market conditions suggest that the industrial metal supercycle may have already begun, particularly for metals like copper and aluminum [3][10] - The demand for non-ferrous metals is expected to rise significantly due to the resilience of traditional industries and the emergence of new sectors, indicating a potential upward shift in price levels [3][10]

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2026年01月09日 (原油) 经历多日承压后夜盘油价迎来显著反弹，布伦特最高接近63美元/桶。市场对地缘风险的反应虽推动 短期回升,但其持续性仍待观察。地缘局势的反复可能加剧油价波动、影响短期节奏,但并未扭转 库存累积带来的下行压力。当前供需格局显示，第一季度全球石油库存压力依然突出，供应过剩仍 是压制油价中枢下行的主要因素。需要警惕的是,若伊朗等地缘风险急剧升级,不排除引发油价短 期脉冲式上涨行情。 【贵金属】 隔夜贵金属先抑后扬，跌势缓和。美国周度初请失业金人数20.8万人，维持在低位水平。开年全球 她缘乱局延续，资金情绪主导剧烈波动，彭博大宗商品指数年度调仓影响不具备持续性，贵金属高 位震荡后仍有望测试前高阻力，考虑参与突破行情或等待波动率下降后寻找再入场机会。聚焦今晚 美国非农就业数据。 【铜】 隔夜铜价走低，高盛上调上半年铜价目标12750美元。市场关注美国高法对特朗普对等关税的裁 决，不过涉铜多走行业关税。沪铜主力换月至2603合约，市场关注2601合约期货仓单变动。昨日上 海铜贴水125元，SMM社库增至27.38万吨。前期 ...

12月份，扩内需促消费政策措施继续显效，叠加元旦临近，居民消费需求增加，居民消费价格指数 （CPI）环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨0.8%，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%。受国际大宗商 品价格传导拉动以及国内重点行业产能治理相关政策持续显效等因素影响，工业生产者出厂价格指数 （PPI）环比上涨0.2%，同比下降1.9%。 一、CPI环比由降转涨，同比涨幅继续扩大，核心CPI上涨1.2% CPI环比由上月下降0.1%转为上涨0.2%，环比上涨主要受除能源外的工业消费品价格上涨影响。扣除能 源的工业消费品价格上涨0.6%，影响CPI环比上涨约0.16个百分点。 其中，提振消费政策效果持续显现，叠加元旦临近，居民购物娱乐需求增加，通信工具、母婴用品、文 娱耐用消费品、家用器具价格均有上涨，涨幅在1.4%-3.0%之间；受国际金价上行影响，国内金饰品价 格上涨5.6%。能源价格下降0.5%，其中受国际油价变动影响，国内汽油价格下降1.2%，影响CPI环比下 降约0.04个百分点。食品价格上涨0.3%，影响CPI环比上涨约0.05个百分点。其中，节前消费需求增 加，鲜果和虾蟹类价格分别上涨2.6%和2.5% ...

Group 1 - The consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.8% year-on-year, with core CPI rising by 1.2% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in consumer demand as the New Year approaches [1][3] - The increase in CPI was primarily driven by rising prices in non-energy industrial consumer goods, which rose by 0.6%, contributing approximately 0.16 percentage points to the month-on-month CPI increase [1] - Food prices rose by 1.1% year-on-year, with significant increases in fresh vegetables (18.2%) and fresh fruits (4.4%), contributing to the overall CPI increase [3] Group 2 - The producer price index (PPI) rose by 0.2% month-on-month, marking the third consecutive month of increases, with the growth rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [4] - Key industries such as coal mining and lithium-ion battery manufacturing saw price increases due to improved supply-demand dynamics, with coal prices rising for five consecutive months [4] - Year-on-year, PPI decreased by 1.9%, but the decline rate narrowed by 0.3 percentage points, indicating positive changes in certain sectors due to ongoing macroeconomic policies [5]

商 品 研 究 2026年01月09日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：避险情绪回升 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：高位回调 | 2 | | 铜：LME库存减少，价格回落受限 | 4 | | 锌：高位回落 | 6 | | 铅：LME库存减少，限制价格回落 | 8 | | 锡：高位松动 | 9 | | 铝：市场情绪降温 | 10 | | 氧化铝：供应过剩未改 | 10 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 10 | | 铂：ETF持仓流出，存在抛压 | 12 | | 钯：整体跟随铂，略微偏强 | 12 | | 镍：现实压力背负与周期转变叙事博弈，宽幅震荡 | 14 | | 不锈钢：现实基本面拖累，盘面博弈印尼政策为主 | 14 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 9 日 黄金：避险情绪回升 白银：高位回调 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | 贵金属基本面数据 | | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding industry investment ratings. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock index continues to show a differentiated pattern, with CSI 500 and CSI 1000 stock index futures expected to remain strong [19][20]. - The narrative of "re - inflation" in the domestic bond market has slightly changed, and there may be short - term long - trading opportunities in the bond market [23]. - In the agricultural products market, protein meal is expected to fluctuate, sugar prices are likely to oscillate, and the overall trend of the oil and fat sector is to move in a range [27][30][34]. - In the black metal market, steel prices will continue to oscillate, the coking coal and coke market should be cautious about callback risks, and iron ore prices are considered bearish at high levels [56][59][63]. - In the non - ferrous metal market, precious metals are experiencing wide - range fluctuations, copper prices are expected to rise in the long - term with short - term fluctuations, and the prices of other non - ferrous metals have their own characteristics and trends [69][78]. - In the shipping sector, the peak of spot freight rates for container shipping is gradually being established, and attention should be paid to the decline rate of spot prices [113]. - In the energy and chemical market, crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate widely, asphalt prices will oscillate at high levels, and the prices of other energy and chemical products also have their own trends [118][123]. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - **Core Viewpoint**: The stock index continues to be differentiated. The small - cap index performs prominently, and the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 stock index futures are expected to maintain a strong trend [19][20]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on IC and IM on dips; wait for the discount to widen for the cash - and - carry arbitrage of IM/IC long 2603 + short ETF; use a bull spread for options [20][21]. Bond Futures - **Core Viewpoint**: The narrative of "re - inflation" in the domestic bond market has slightly changed. Although there are factors restricting the strengthening of the bond market, there may be short - term long - trading opportunities [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on TF and T contracts on dips; stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [24]. Agricultural Products Protein Meal - **Core Viewpoint**: There is still supply pressure, and the overall price of the contract has declined. It is expected to move in a range [26][27]. - **Trading Strategy**: Stay on the sidelines for single - side trading; narrow the MRM spread for arbitrage; sell a wide - straddle strategy for options [27]. Sugar - **Core Viewpoint**: Commodity price fluctuations have increased, and both domestic and international sugar prices are oscillating. International sugar prices are expected to bottom - out and move in a range in the short term, while domestic sugar prices will face pressure near the upper oscillation platform [30]. - **Trading Strategy**: International sugar prices are expected to bottom - out and move in a range in the short term, and domestic sugar prices will oscillate. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage; sell put options for options [31]. Oil and Fat Sector - **Core Viewpoint**: The overall trend is to move in a range. The inventory of palm oil is at a relatively high level, the inventory of soybean oil is gradually decreasing, and rapeseed oil is still greatly affected by policies [34]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, the oil and fat market will move in a range with increased volatility. For palm oil, consider shorting at the upper edge of the range after a rebound, and soybean oil may follow the overall trend of the oil and fat market. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [34][35]. Corn/Corn Starch - **Core Viewpoint**: Wheat and corn are continuously being auctioned, and the spot price is stable. The U.S. corn price is at the bottom and oscillating, and the domestic corn price will face pressure in the later stage [38]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the foreign market, go long on the 03 corn contract on dips and stay on the sidelines for the 07 corn contract. Expand the spread between the 05 corn and starch contracts for arbitrage; stay on the sidelines for options [38]. Live Pigs - **Core Viewpoint**: There is still supply pressure, and the spot price is oscillating. The overall inventory of live pigs is relatively high, and the price is expected to face pressure [40]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a short - selling strategy for single - side trading; stay on the sidelines for arbitrage; sell a wide - straddle strategy for options [40]. Peanuts - **Core Viewpoint**: The spot price of peanuts is stable, and the futures price is oscillating at the bottom. The supply of peanut kernels for oil is abundant, but the price is supported by factors such as cost [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: The 05 peanut contract is oscillating at the bottom. Go long on dips without chasing the rise. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage; sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option for options [43][44]. Eggs - **Core Viewpoint**: Demand has improved, and the egg price has increased steadily. The supply pressure has been relieved, but the demand is average in the short term. The near - month contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the May contract can be considered for long - position building on dips [47]. - **Trading Strategy**: The February contract is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term. Consider going long on the May contract on dips. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [47]. Apples - **Core Viewpoint**: The cold - storage inventory is low, and the fruit price is oscillating at a high level. The cost of apple warehouse receipts is high, and the demand is acceptable. If the demand remains normal, the May contract price is likely to rise [50]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold the long position of the May contract and go short on the October contract on rallies. Long the May contract and short the October contract for arbitrage; stay on the sidelines for options [51]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **Core Viewpoint**: The planting area in the new year is expected to decline, and the cotton price is oscillating strongly. The sales progress of cotton is fast, and there are positive factors such as the expected expansion of textile factory capacity in Xinjiang [53]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected that the U.S. cotton will move in a range in the short term. Consider taking profits on the long position of the recent main contract of Zhengzhou cotton. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [54]. Black Metals Steel - **Core Viewpoint**: Steel has started to accumulate inventory, and the steel price will continue to oscillate. The supply of the five major steel products has increased, the inventory has started to accumulate, and the demand has weakened seasonally [56]. - **Trading Strategy**: Follow the coal and coke market and oscillate. Stay on the sidelines for single - side trading; short the hot - rolled coil to coal ratio on rallies and hold the short position of the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread; stay on the sidelines for options [57]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Core Viewpoint**: Market sentiment has cooled down, and attention should be paid to callback risks. The current supply and demand of coking coal are relatively balanced, and the price is mainly driven by macro - sentiment and funds [59]. - **Trading Strategy**: Be cautious about callback risks for single - side trading; stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [60]. Iron Ore - **Core Viewpoint**: Market expectations are fluctuating, and the iron ore price at a high level should be treated bearishly. The supply is abundant, and the domestic steel demand is expected to decline, limiting the upward space of the iron ore price [63]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go short on the iron ore contract at a high level with a light position [63]. Ferroalloys - **Core Viewpoint**: Market sentiment has generally cooled down, and it will move in a range in the short term. The supply and demand of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese silicon have their own characteristics, and the cost has a certain impact on the price [65][66]. - **Trading Strategy**: Move in a range in the short term for single - side trading; stay on the sidelines for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money straddles for options [66]. Non - Ferrous Metals Gold and Silver - **Core Viewpoint**: The Bloomberg Index has started to adjust, and gold and silver are fluctuating widely. The adjustment of the Bloomberg Commodity Index has brought selling pressure to the gold and silver markets, and the impact on silver is more significant [69]. - **Trading Strategy**: Stay on the sidelines temporarily and wait for the market to stabilize. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [70]. Platinum and Palladium - **Core Viewpoint**: The BCOM has adjusted the weights, and precious metals are fluctuating widely. The supply and demand fundamentals of platinum and palladium are different, and the price is affected by factors such as index adjustment and macro - environment [73]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider going long on platinum and short on palladium for arbitrage; stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and options [74]. Copper - **Core Viewpoint**: Short - term fluctuations have intensified. Buy after the price stabilizes after a callback. Trump's policies and factors such as supply - demand mismatch and financial attributes support the long - term rise of the copper price, but short - term fluctuations are affected by funds and sentiment [78]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the support at 98000 - 99000 yuan/ton and buy in batches while controlling the position [78]. Alumina - **Core Viewpoint**: The expectation of an increase in warehouse receipts has led to a price callback. After the price increase, the import window has opened, and the expectation of an increase in warehouse receipts has put pressure on the price [81]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price will be under pressure [81]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Core Viewpoint**: There is a short - term risk of a callback. After the price approaches the previous high, funds have taken profits, and the price has followed the sector to correct. However, the fundamentals still have support [83][86]. - **Trading Strategy**: After the price corrects due to capital outflows, maintain a bullish view after the price stabilizes. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [86]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Core Viewpoint**: It has corrected with the sector. The price has corrected with the non - ferrous metal sector, and the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, which supports the price, but the demand is weakening [87]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price will correct in the short term due to capital outflows and move with the sector. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [88]. Zinc - **Core Viewpoint**: Pay attention to the impact of the capital side. The shortage pattern of zinc ore is difficult to reverse, the supply of refined zinc may increase slightly, and the consumption has resilience. The price may be affected by capital withdrawal and inventory changes [91]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go short on the zinc contract at a high level with a light position and be vigilant about the pull - up of the zinc price by long - position funds. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [91]. Lead - **Core Viewpoint**: Buy on dips after the price stabilizes. The supply of lead ingots is difficult to increase significantly, the consumption has resilience, and low inventory and other factors may attract long - position funds [95]. - **Trading Strategy**: Maintain the idea of going long on dips after the price corrects. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage; buy out - of - the - money call options in a timely manner for options [95]. Nickel - **Core Viewpoint**: After an over - rise and correction, it is ready to rise again. The supply of nickel is in surplus, but the price has risen due to factors such as geopolitical conflicts and inflation expectations. It is recommended to control the position and operate cautiously [97]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider going long on dips after the price corrects and stabilizes. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [97][98]. Stainless Steel - **Core Viewpoint**: It moves following the nickel price. The price is supported by factors such as the expected reduction of nickel ore RKAB quotas, but the upward drive is weaker than that of nickel [100]. - **Trading Strategy**: Move following the nickel price. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [100]. Industrial Silicon - **Core Viewpoint**: Be bearish. The production of industrial silicon is difficult to reduce, the downstream demand may decline, and the inventory may continue to accumulate, so the price may fall [101]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold existing short positions and go short on rallies for new strategies. There is no arbitrage opportunity; sell out - of - the - money call options for options [102]. Polysilicon - **Core Viewpoint**: The market trading of industry self - regulation falls short of expectations, and the futures price is weak. The futures price has fallen due to market rumors, and the industry needs to reach a new balance between "anti - involution" and "anti - monopoly" [104]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is weak. Participate cautiously and control risks. There is no arbitrage and option strategy [105]. Lithium Carbonate - **Core Viewpoint**: A strong variety has corrected but is still running at a high level. Although there is a callback risk due to factors such as industry meetings, the long - term trend is good, and the price center will move up [107]. - **Trading Strategy**: Control the position and operate cautiously. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [107]. Tin - **Core Viewpoint**: Short - term fluctuations have intensified. Pay attention to the tariff ruling and non - farm payroll data. The import of tin concentrate has increased, the inventory has decreased, and the demand is in the off - season [109][110]. - **Trading Strategy**: Correct with the non - ferrous metal sector in the short term and pay attention to the non - farm payroll data on Friday. Stay on the sidelines for options [110]. Shipping Sector Container Shipping - **Core Viewpoint**: The peak of spot freight rates is gradually being established, and attention should be paid to the decline rate of spot prices. The demand growth has slowed down, and some shipping companies have started to lower their spot quotes [113]. - **Trading Strategy**: Stay on the sidelines and pay attention to the rate of shipping companies' price cuts. Look for opportunities to go long on the 6 - 10 spread on dips for arbitrage [114][115]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - **Core Viewpoint**: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have increased, and the oil price has rebounded significantly. The situation in Venezuela remains unchanged, and geopolitical risks in the Middle East have increased, leading to a significant rebound in the oil price. The oil price is expected to fluctuate widely [118]. - **Trading Strategy**: Fluctuate widely for single - side trading; the domestic gasoline is strong, the diesel is weak, and the crude oil calendar spread is strong for arbitrage; stay on the sidelines for options [118]. Asphalt - **Core Viewpoint**: The sharp rise in the crude oil price provides strong cost support. The cost support is obvious due to the rise in the crude oil price, and the asphalt price is expected to oscillate at a high level [123]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate at a high level for single - side trading; stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [123]. Fuel Oil - **Core Viewpoint**: Geopolitical disturbances are frequent, and price fluctuations have intensified. The situation in Venezuela has an impact on fuel oil exports and production, and the supply and demand of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil have their own characteristics [127]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate strongly in the short term and be vigilant about geopolitical risks for single - side trading; look for opportunities for the FU59 spread for arbitrage; stay on the sidelines for options [127]. Natural Gas - **Core Viewpoint**: TTF/JKM is oscillating at a low level, and HH is oscillating weakly. The demand in Europe and Asia is weak, and the supply in the United States is relatively loose. The price is expected to decline in the long term [130][131]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions in the third - quarter TTF or JKM contracts. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [131]. LPG - **Core Viewpoint**: There is a short - term geopolitical premium, but the expectation is still under pressure. The increase in the Saudi CP price provides support, but the continuous loss of PDH profits may lead to a decrease in the operating rate [135]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the follow - up of the Iranian incident. Be bearish on the far - month contracts in the long term. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [135]. PX&PTA - **Core Viewpoint**: The news of polyester production cuts has fermented. The PX supply is relatively abundant, the PTA production rate has not changed much, and the downstream polyester production cuts have increased, but the cost is supported by the rise in the oil price [137]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate

Core Insights - The analysis by Tian Yaxiong from CITIC Futures indicates that the commodity market in 2026 will be driven by the combination of "U.S. fiscal expansion" and "AI capital expenditure growth," which are crucial for supporting economic growth [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - U.S. fiscal expansion is playing a vital role as a "counter-cyclical support" in the current economic cycle, with a series of legislative measures becoming core variables for economic growth [1] - Major tech companies like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon are projected to invest hundreds of billions to over a trillion dollars in AI-related capital expenditures, creating new demand for non-ferrous metals like copper and aluminum [1] - The power density of AI data centers significantly exceeds that of traditional facilities, leading to increased reliance on copper and aluminum for power distribution and cooling systems, which shapes the future commodity market [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - Domestic economic recovery is expected to continue, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) likely turning positive after the third quarter of 2026 [1] - The significant increase in export value added indicates resilience in industrial upgrades, while the monetary credit cycle has shown signs of a turning point [1] - The M1-M2 indicators are expected to support a moderate recovery in prices, leading PPI by approximately six months [1] Group 3: Cognitive Discrepancies - Four key cognitive discrepancies were highlighted: 1. The paradox of capacity clearance, where industries like electrolytic aluminum and lithium processing face a "loss-expansion" dilemma, with leading firms expanding despite losses [2] 2. The need to validate whether current massive capital expenditures in AI are overextending future investment potential and if global labor productivity can significantly improve due to AI [2] 3. The U.S. designating copper and silver as critical minerals, leading to increased trade barriers and supply tensions [2] 4. The potential slowdown in the "de-coal" process among emerging Asian economies due to energy security and economic considerations, impacting demand for related commodities [2] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The historical combination of "fiscal expansion + de-globalization" since 1970 suggests that commodities could enter a significant bull market under similar conditions [2] - Investors are advised to focus on structural opportunities in the non-ferrous and precious metals sectors, closely tied to AI and fiscal policies, while remaining cautious of monetary policy shifts and geopolitical events that may cause market volatility [2]