宏观 股指 市场分析：当日沪深两市成交额 1.45 万亿元，较前日放量 10.57%。银行、创新药等防御性 板块领涨，而半导体、航天航空等高波动板块承压。上证 50 主力合约 IH2506 持仓量环比下 降 2.82%，短期多空分歧加剧。中证 1000 收盘价接近压力位 6226 左右，若突破需成交量配 合；沪深 300 收盘价接近支撑位 3514 左右，短期反弹动能不足。 参考观点：中证 1000 波动率较高，建议关注 6227 附近压力位突破情况；上证 50 建议结合 持仓量变化判断趋势持续性；沪深 300 波动率处于低位，但成交额占比稳定，可作为中长期 配置参考；中证 1000 与沪深 300 的波动率比值（1.56）接近 2024 年均值（1.62），可关注 均值回归机会。 原油 宏观与地缘：上周五美国非农数据超预期，削弱美联储降息紧迫性，同时中美第二轮谈判， 市场对经贸缓和有一定预期，原油价格或偏强震荡，关注 WTI 主力 65 美元/桶关键位置。 市场分析：基本面看，OPEC 大幅调降未来两年全球需求增速，美国贸易战升级，特朗普政 府政策多变，引发市场对全球需求担忧。库存方面，美原油库存虽然下滑， ...

Report Overview - Industry: Eggs [1] - Date: June 10, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The spot price of eggs is expected to remain weak in the short - to - medium term. Futures should be treated bearishly or sell out - of - the - money call options. Monitor the situation of culled hens. If the spot price stabilizes in mid - to - late June, short positions should exit; if the spot price continues to decline during the rainy season in June, short positions can be held cautiously [8]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: For egg contracts 2507, 2508, and 2509, prices decreased, with declines of 1.18%, 1.35%, and 1.08% respectively. The trading volume of 2507 was 139,636, 2508 was 129,143, and 2509 was 58,582. The change in open interest of 2507 was - 5,506, 2508 was 7,737, and 2509 was 6,453 [7]. - **Spot Price**: The average price in the main producing areas was 2.77 yuan/jin, down 0.02 yuan/jin from the previous day; in the main selling areas, it was 2.99 yuan/jin, down 0.04 yuan/jin [8]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Given the expected long and rainy plum - rain season, futures are bearish in the short - to - medium term. Watch the culling of hens. If the spot price stabilizes in mid - to - late June, short positions should exit; if it continues to fall during the plum - rain season, short positions can be held [8]. 3.2 Industry News - **In - production Laying Hens**: As of the end of May, the monthly存栏量 was about 1.334 billion, a 0.4% month - on - month increase and a 7.2% year - on - year increase [9]. - **Chick Hatchlings**: In April, the monthly hatchling volume of sample enterprises was about 46.99 million, an increase from March and the same period in 2024 [9]. - **Culled Hens**: The culling volume increased in May, with an average culling age of 521 days as of May 29, 11 days earlier than the previous week and 15 days earlier than the previous month [9]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents data on the monthly存栏量 of laying hens, egg - farming profits, the average price in the main producing areas, the seasonal trend of the 06 contract, the basis of the 06 contract, and the 08 - 09 spread [10][16][20]

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Eggs [1] - Report date: June 9, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review | Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | High Price | Low Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Egg 2507 | 2877 | 2875 | 2895 | 2856 | 2859 | -18 | -0.63% | 148312 | 124880 | 7559 | | Egg 2508 | 3571 | 3577 | 3587 | 3546 | 3553 | -18 | -0.50% | 75025 | 187355 | 5832 | | Egg 2509 | 3721 | 3721 | 3728 | 3706 | 3709 | -12 | -0.32% | 22391 | 104612 | 3437 | [7] Core View The national egg price is weak today. The average price in the main production areas is 2.79 yuan/jin, down 0.08 yuan/jin from yesterday; the average price in the main sales areas is 3.03 yuan/jin, down 0.02 yuan/jin from yesterday. The 08 contract fell 0.50%. The spot price has remained weak and stable this week. After the Dragon Boat Festival, the sales situation has improved to some extent compared with the previous period, but on the one hand, the supply of small-sized eggs is still large, and on the other hand, the plum rain season is approaching, so all parties are still cautious in purchasing. From the perspective of the spot market, it is expected to remain weak and stable for some time. According to the 2025 weather forecast and traditional calendar calculations, it is expected to enter the plum rain season on June 6 and last until July 13 or 18, with a relatively long duration and more precipitation. Under this expectation, it is difficult for the spot price to rebound in the short term, and the medium- and short-term futures should be treated bearishly or sell out-of-the-money call options. Continuously monitor the situation of culled hens in the future. The culling of hens has accelerated significantly in the past two weeks, but more continuous over-culling is needed to reduce the increase in supply. If the spot price remains stable in mid-to-late June, short sellers should leave the market in time and not be greedy. Under the bearish fundamental situation, there is a possibility of slow decline and sharp rise. If the spot price continues to bottom out during the plum rain season in June, the previous short positions can be held cautiously [8] Group 3: Industry News - The inventory of laying hens in production is on the rise. As of the end of May, the monthly inventory of laying hens in production nationwide was about 1.334 billion, compared with 1.329 billion at the end of April and 1.318 billion at the end of March, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, showing a certain degree of growth for five consecutive months. Compared with 1.244 billion in the same period last year, the year-on-year increase was 7.2% [9] - In April, the monthly output of layer chicks from sample enterprises was about 46.99 million, an increase from 46.33 million in March. Compared with 45.82 million in the same period in 2024, it also increased, ranking as the third-highest monthly replenishment volume in April in the past eight years [9] - In the three weeks up to May 30, the national culling volume of hens was 21.02 million, 19.53 million, and 18.56 million respectively. The culling volume gradually recovered after May, with a month-on-month increase for three consecutive weeks, and the absolute value was slightly higher than the levels of the previous three years. As of May 29, the average age of culled hens was 521 days, 11 days earlier than the previous week and 15 days earlier than the previous month [9] Group 4: Data Overview - Figures include China's monthly inventory of laying hens in production (in billions), egg farming profit (yuan per hen), average price of eggs in the main production areas (yuan per jin), seasonal trend of Egg 06 (yuan per 500 kg), basis of Egg 06 contract (yuan per 500 kg), and price difference between Egg 08 and 09 (yuan per 500 kg) [10][16][20]

文字早评 2025/06/03 星期二 宏观金融类 股指 前一交易日沪指-0.47%，创指-0.96%，科创 50-0.94%，北证 50-0.51%，上证 50-0.45%，沪深 300-0.48%， 中证 500-0.85%，中证 1000-1.03%，中证 2000-1.75%，万得微盘-1.16%。两市合计成交 11392 亿，较上 一日-462 亿。 宏观消息面： 1、美方称中方违反中美日内瓦经贸会谈共识，中国商务部新闻发言人：中方坚决拒绝无理指责。 2、中国 5 月官方制造业 PMI 回升至 49.5，符合预期。 3、工信部：加大汽车行业"内卷式"竞争整治力度。中汽协：无序"价格战"加剧恶性竞争，挤压企 业利润空间，影响产品质量和售后服务保障。 4、特朗普宣布自周三起上调钢铝关税一倍至 50%。欧盟：表示遗憾，准备反击美国。 资金面：融资额-11.29 亿；隔夜 Shibor 利率+6.00bp 至 1.4710%，流动性较为宽松；3 年期企业债 AA- 级别利率-1.23bp 至 3.0414%，十年期国债利率-1.90bp 至 1.6762%，信用利差+0.67bp 至 137bp；美国 10 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall market shows a mixed picture with different commodities experiencing various trends such as震荡 (side - ways movement), decline, or potential for price adjustments. Different trading strategies are recommended for each commodity based on their specific market conditions [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Indexes have stable lower support but face high upper - breakthrough pressure. Trading volume is low, and there is no clear trend. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: In the short - term, 10 - year Treasury bond rates may fluctuate between 1.65% - 1.7%, and 30 - year rates between 1.85% - 1.95%. The market is in a narrow - range震荡, waiting for fundamental guidance. Unilateral strategies suggest waiting and observing, while paying attention to high - frequency economic data and fund - flow dynamics. For the 2509 contract, a positive arbitrage strategy is recommended [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold fails to continue its upward trend due to a lack of clear drivers and may maintain a震荡 pattern. A strategy of selling out - of - the - money gold option straddles can be used to earn time value. Silver follows gold's fluctuations, and it is recommended to sell relatively out - of - the - money call options [2]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. Attention should be paid to the decline in apparent demand. Steel mill maintenance is increasing, and hot metal production is falling from its peak. For the RB2510 contract, unilateral operations are on hold, and attention is given to the strategy of going long on materials and short on raw materials [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Attention is paid to the support around 670 - 680 [2]. - **Coke**: The second round of coke price cuts by major steel mills was implemented on the 28th. There is still a possibility of further price cuts, and it is recommended to short the J2509 contract at an appropriate time [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The market auction is continuously cold, coal mine production is at a high level, and inventory is high. There is still a possibility of price decline, and it is recommended to short the JM2509 contract [2]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The macro - situation and supply - increase expectations are in a stalemate, and the market is waiting for the implementation of OPEC's production - increase policy. The WTI is expected to fluctuate between [59, 69], Brent between [61, 71], and SC between [440, 500]. For arbitrage, attention is paid to the INE month - spread rebound opportunities [2]. - **Urea**: Under high - supply pressure, the market is searching for a bottom in a震荡 pattern. It is recommended to use a medium - to - long - term band trading strategy and a short - term unilateral bearish strategy. The main contract's fluctuation range is adjusted to around [1800, 1900] [2]. - **PX**: Supply - demand conditions are marginally weakening, but the spot market is tight, so there is support at low levels. In the short - term, it will震荡 between 6500 - 6800. A light - position reverse arbitrage for PX9 - 1 can be tried, and the PX - SC spread can be shorted when it is high [2]. - **PTA**: Supply - demand conditions are marginally weakening, but raw - material support is strong. In the short - term, it will震荡 between 4600 - 4800, and a reverse arbitrage for TA9 - 1 is recommended [2]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: Supported by pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking, attention is paid to the support at 13500 [2]. - **Corn**: The market price will震荡 around 2320 in the short - term [2]. - **Oils and Fats**: There are both bullish and bearish factors, and oils and fats are in a narrow - range震荡. Palm oil may reach 8100 in the short - term [2]. - **Sugar**: Overseas supply is expected to be loose. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct bearish trading on rebounds [2]. - **Cotton**: The downstream market remains weak, and bearish trading on rebounds is recommended [2]. Special Commodities - **Glass**: Market sentiment has weakened again. Attention is paid to the support at the 1000 - point level for the FG2509 contract [2]. - **Rubber**: With a weak fundamental outlook, the RU contract has increased positions and declined. Short positions should be held, and attention is paid to the support around 13000 [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon futures are still falling under high - supply pressure, and the fundamentals remain bearish [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Polysilicon futures have stabilized and are in a震荡 pattern. If there are long positions, hold them cautiously [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is in a weak震荡 adjustment, and the main contract is expected to trade between 58,000 - 62,000 [2].

Group 1: Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings were provided in the reports. Group 2: Core Views Oils and Fats - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures have stopped falling and stabilized around 3,800 ringgit, facing resistance at the annual line near 8,100. Domestic palm oil futures have rebounded, but still face resistance. For soybeans, the sideways movement of NYMEX crude oil has affected US soybean prices. With the approaching Dragon Boat Festival, domestic demand is weak, and the basis price is expected to decline. Overall, palm oil may rebound, while domestic soybean oil prices are under pressure [1]. Meal - US soybean planting is progressing smoothly, and the supply pressure from Brazil continues. China has suspended imports from the US, and the domestic soybean supply will be abundant in the later period. Although the current inventory of soybean meal in oil mills is low and the basis is expected to stabilize, the two meals are expected to maintain a volatile structure, and soybean meal may face short - term callback risks [2]. Corn - The supply and price of corn depend on traders' selling rhythm. Currently, prices are stable with strong bottom support. In the short term, the market is affected by wheat listing and price changes, and the corn market is in a narrow - range oscillation. In the long term, supply tightening and increased demand will support price increases [4]. Pigs - The spot price of pigs fluctuates slightly. Supply is abundant, and demand improvement is limited. Although there is some support before the Dragon Boat Festival, prices are difficult to rise. The market does not have a basis for a sharp decline, but the upward drive is also weak [7]. Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures have fallen to a four - year low due to improved global production prospects. Although the current lack of large - scale imports supports domestic sugar prices, future supply increases will suppress prices, and sugar prices are expected to be weakly volatile [11]. Cotton - The downstream demand for cotton has resilience, and the basis of cotton spot is strong, providing support for cotton prices. However, the long - term demand outlook is not strong, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [13]. Eggs - The supply of eggs in the country is relatively sufficient, which has a negative impact on prices. Demand may first decrease and then increase, and egg prices are expected to first fall and then rise slightly this week [14]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Prices**: On May 28, the spot price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil was 8,100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the futures price of Y2509 was 7,492 yuan/ton, down 0.24%. The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,600 yuan/ton, up 0.58%; the futures price of P2509 was 8,000 yuan/ton, up 0.25%. The spot price of Jiangsu fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9,600 yuan/ton, up 0.21%; the futures price of OI509 was 9,073 yuan/ton, down 0.40% [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of Y2509 increased by 3.05%, the basis of P2509 increased by 5.26%, and the basis of OI509 increased by 11.89%. The 09 - 01 spread of soybean oil decreased by 35.71%, the 09 - 01 spread of palm oil decreased by 37.5%, and the 09 - 01 spread of rapeseed oil decreased by 7.14% [1]. Meal - **Prices**: On May 29, the spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal was 2,940 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures price of M2509 was 2,961 yuan/ton, down 0.17%. The spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal was 2,530 yuan/ton, up 0.40%; the futures price of RM2509 was 2,604 yuan/ton, up 0.19% [2]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of M2509 increased by 19.23%, the basis of RM2509 increased by 6.33%. The 09 - 01 spread of soybean meal increased by 7.14%, the 09 - 01 spread of rapeseed meal increased by 1.98% [2]. Corn - **Prices**: On May 29, the futures price of corn 2507 was 2,325 yuan/ton, up 0.04%. The spot price of corn in Jinzhou Port was 2,320 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 5 yuan/ton [4]. - **Spreads and Profits**: The 7 - 9 spread of corn was - 24 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import profit was 347 yuan/ton, up 4.75%. The 7 - 9 spread of corn starch was - 60 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the starch - corn spread increased by 3.05% [4]. Pigs - **Prices**: On May 29, the futures price of live pigs 2507 was 13,260 yuan/ton, up 0.08%; the futures price of 2509 was 13,560 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price in Henan was 14,530 yuan/ton, unchanged [7]. - **Spreads and Indicators**: The 7 - 9 spread of live pigs decreased by 3.23%. The slaughter rate increased by 0.83%, and the self - breeding profit decreased by 40.23% [7]. Sugar - **Prices**: On May 29, the futures price of sugar 2601 was 5,674 yuan/ton, down 0.60%; the futures price of 2509 was 5,795 yuan/ton, down 0.79%. The ICE raw sugar futures price was 16.91 cents/pound, down 1.97% [10]. - **Basis and Inventory**: The basis in Nanning increased by 14.65%, and the basis in Kunming increased by 38.66%. The national industrial inventory decreased by 8.20%, and the industrial inventory in Guangxi decreased by 10.41% [10][12]. Cotton - **Prices**: On May 29, the futures price of cotton 2509 was 13,330 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures price of 2601 was 13,375 yuan/ton, down 0.07%. The ICE cotton futures price was 65.33 cents/pound, down 0.38% [13]. - **Inventory and Indicators**: Commercial inventory decreased by 7.7%, industrial inventory decreased by 2.6%, and imports decreased by 14.3%. The export volume of textile yarns and fabrics increased by 4.4% [13]. Eggs - **Prices**: On May 29, the futures price of egg 09 contract was 3,722 yuan/500KG, up 0.24%; the futures price of 06 contract was 2,662 yuan/500KG, down 1.26% [14]. - **Indicators**: The price of egg - laying chicks was unchanged, the price of culled chickens decreased by 1.92%, and the breeding profit increased by 7.32% [14].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views - The market is affected by various factors, leading to different trends in different varieties. For example, the stock index shows a pattern of stable lower - support and high upper - breakthrough pressure; the bond market is in a narrow - range shock waiting for fundamental guidance; precious metals are affected by multiple factors and show a shock or upward - potential trend; and different industrial and agricultural products have their own supply - demand and price trends [2]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - IF2506, IH2506, IC2506, IM2506: The index has stable lower support and high upper - breakthrough pressure. TMT is warming up, and A - shares are in a shrinking shock. It is recommended to sell put options near the previous low support level to earn the premium [2]. Bond Futures - T2506, TF2506, TS2506, TL2506: In the short - term information window period, the bond futures are in a narrow - range shock. The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate in the range of 1.65% - 1.7%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate in the range of 1.85% - 1.95%. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to high - frequency economic data and capital - market dynamics [2]. Precious Metals - AU2508, AG2508: Gold may break through $3400 (795 yuan) or maintain a shock trend. Silver follows gold's fluctuations, and the resistance near the previous high of $33.5 (8300 yuan) is strengthened [2]. Shipping Index - EC2508 (European Line): Airlines are reducing prices, and the main contract is falling. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously [2]. Steel - RB2510: Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. It is recommended to pay attention to the long - hot - rolled - coil and short - coke and long - hot - rolled - coil and short - coking - coal arbitrage operations [2]. Iron Ore - I2509: It is in a range - bound shock, with the range referring to 700 - 745 [2]. Coke - J2509: Mainstream steel mills are initiating the second round of coke price cuts, which are expected to be implemented on the 28th. Coke prices may still be cut. It is recommended to consider long - hot - rolled - coil and short - coke operations [2]. Coking Coal - JM2509: The market auction is cold, coal mine production and inventory are at high levels, and prices are still likely to fall. It is recommended to consider long - hot - rolled - coil and short - coking - coal operations [2]. Silicon Iron - SF507: Supply - demand is marginally improving, and costs are moving down. It is in a range - bound shock, with the range referring to 5500 - 5800. It is recommended to try shorting at high levels, with the upper pressure referring to around 5900 [2]. Copper - CU2507: There are sudden disturbances in the copper mine supply. Pay attention to the sustainability of the "strong reality". The main contract pays attention to the pressure level of 78000 - 79000 [2]. Zinc - ZN2507: Social inventory is decreasing again, and the fundamentals change little. The market is in a shock [2]. Nickel - NI2506: The market is in a narrow - range shock, with cost support and supply - demand contradictions still existing. The main contract refers to 122000 - 128000 [2]. Stainless Steel - SS2507: The main contract refers to 12600 - 13200. It is recommended to try shorting lightly in the range of 265000 - 270000 [2]. Tin - SN2506: In the medium - to - long - term, it is recommended to adopt a band - trading strategy. In the short - term, observe opportunities for shorting on rebounds [2]. Crude Oil - SC2508: The macro - situation and supply - increase expectations are in a stalemate. The market is in a shock, waiting for the implementation of OPEC's production - increase policy. The WTI fluctuates in the range of [59, 69], Brent in [61, 71], and SC in [440, 500]. It is recommended to pay attention to the INE monthly - spread rebound opportunities [2]. Urea - UR2509: Agricultural demand needs time, and under high - supply pressure, the market is looking for a bottom in a shock. The main - contract fluctuation is adjusted to around [1800, 1900] [2]. PX - PX2509: Supply - demand is marginally weakening, and oil - price support is limited. PX is under short - term pressure. Pay attention to the support at 6500 - 6600, try a light - position reverse - spread operation for PX9 - 1, and shrink the PX - SC spread when it is high [2]. PTA - TA2509: Supply - demand is marginally weakening, and oil - price support is limited. PTA is under short - term pressure. Pay attention to the support near 4600 and treat TA9 - 1 as a reverse - spread operation [2]. Short - Fiber - PF2507: The short - term driving force is weak, and the price follows the raw materials. The unilateral operation is the same as PTA, and it is mainly to expand the processing fee on the PF disk at a low level [2]. Bottle Chip - PR2507: Supply and demand are both increasing, and short - term contradictions are not prominent. The absolute price follows the cost. The unilateral operation is the same as PTA. The main - contract processing fee on the PR disk is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 550 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the opportunity to expand at the lower edge of the range [2]. Ethanol - EG2509: Supply and demand are both decreasing, but MEG has a large destocking in the near - month. Pay attention to the positive - spread opportunity. Unilaterally wait and see, and go for a positive - spread operation for EG9 - 1 when the price is low [2]. Styrene - EB2507: Inventory has stopped decreasing and started to accumulate, and supply - demand is under pressure. The market is in a weak shock. It is medium - term bearish, with a resistance of 7800 for the near - month. Pay attention to the opportunity for the EB - BZ spread to widen [2]. Caustic Soda - 60952HB: The increase in the alumina purchase price drives the near - month price. Pay attention to the warehouse receipts. Unilaterally wait and see, and maintain a positive - spread operation for the near - month [2]. PVC - V2509: The medium - to - long - term contradiction still exists, and the near - end spot is weak. The market has turned down again. It is recommended to short on the medium - to - long - term on rallies, with the resistance level for 09 at around 5100 [2]. Synthetic Rubber - BR2507: The supply - demand pattern of loose remains unchanged, and BR has fallen sharply. Hold short positions [2]. LLDPE - L2509: The spot price follows the disk decline, and the transaction has deteriorated significantly. The market is in a shock [2]. PP - PP2509: Supply and demand are both weak. Pay attention to the subsequent marginal - device restart situation. The market is in a weak shock [2]. Methanol - MA2509: The inventory inflection point has appeared, and the port and inland markets are weakening. The market is in a weak shock [2]. Grains and Oils - M2509: The pressure near 2950 is increasing [2]. - RM509: CBOT is closed, and the market is in a shock [2]. - LH2509: At the end of the month, the volume is shrinking, and downstream Dragon Boat Festival stocking is increasing. The futures and spot prices are rebounding slightly. Pay attention to the support at 13500 [2]. - C2507: The market fluctuates with the shipment rhythm. It fluctuates around 2320 in the short - term [2]. - P2509/Y25: Palm oil may run around 8000 [2]. - SR2509: The overseas supply outlook is relatively loose. Unilaterally wait and see or short on rebounds [2]. - CF2509: The downstream market remains weak. Short on rebounds [2]. - JD2507: The spot price may weaken again. Short on rebounds for the 07 contract [2]. - AP2510: The trading is market - based. The main contract runs around 7500 [2]. - CJ2509: The fundamentals change little, and red dates continue to fluctuate. It runs around 9000 in the short - term [2]. - PK2510: The market price fluctuates. The main contract runs around 8200 [2]. Special Commodities - SA2509: There are many maintenance expectations from May to June. Consider positive - spread participation in the monthly spread. Short on rebounds and go for a positive - spread operation for the 7 - 9 monthly spread [2]. - FG2509: The market sentiment is pessimistic. Pay attention to the support at the 1000 - point level [2]. - RU2509: The fundamentals are weak, and the rubber price is falling. Hold the previous short positions and pay attention to the performance at the 14000 - line [2]. - Si2507: The industrial - silicon futures are increasing positions and falling under the expectation of supply increase. The fundamentals are still bearish [2]. New - Energy Commodities - PS2507: The raw - material price is falling, and the supply is expected to increase. The polysilicon futures are increasing positions and falling, and the price is still under pressure [2]. - LC2507: The market has rebounded, but the fundamental logic has not reversed. The main contract runs in the range of 58,000 - 63,000 [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats - Palm oil: SPPOMA's significant decline in the first 25 - day production increase and the increase in the first 25 - day exports announced by shipping agencies will limit the downside of the market. However, the domestic Dalian palm oil futures market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend due to the weak performance of Malaysian palm oil and the increase in domestic port inventories [1]. - Soybean oil: The fundamentals of domestic soybean oil are deteriorating. Spot soybean oil will continue to be weaker than futures, and the basis quote is expected to decline. Although CBOT soybean oil is supported by the US biodiesel policy and the promotion of green energy, it is also affected by the possible tariff increase on EU goods by Trump and the decline of CBOT soybeans [1]. Meal - The two - meal futures in the domestic market are expected to maintain a volatile structure. The spring sowing of US soybeans is progressing smoothly, and the supply pressure from Brazil is still being realized. The abundant arrival of soybeans in the domestic market will suppress the cost of domestic soybean meal, but the low inventory of oil mills and the low basis limit the downside [2]. Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs has rebounded slightly. Although the improvement in supply - demand is limited, the reduction in the supply of breeding groups at the end of the month and the pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking demand have contributed to the rebound. The 09 contract has also rebounded, and the market is expected to neither decline significantly nor have strong upward momentum. Attention should be paid to the support around 13,500 [4][5]. Corn - In the short term, the corn market will maintain a narrow - range volatile trend. The supply and price are affected by traders' selling rhythm. The downstream deep - processing industry's continuous losses and the substitution expectation of wheat put pressure on corn. In the long term, the tightening supply, reduced imports and substitution, and increased breeding demand will support the upward movement of corn prices [7]. Sugar - The supply outlook for the 25/26 sugar season is optimistic, with smooth harvesting in Brazil's central - southern region and a good start of the monsoon season in Thailand. The raw sugar is expected to be weak and volatile, with a risk of falling below 17 cents per pound. The domestic sugar price is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend due to the future import rhythm and the increasing long - term supply [10]. Cotton - The downstream demand for cotton has resilience, and the basis of cotton spot is firm, providing strong support for cotton prices. However, the weak long - term demand expectation limits the upward movement of cotton prices. In the short term, the domestic cotton market is expected to fluctuate within a range [12]. Eggs - The national egg supply is relatively sufficient, which has a negative impact on egg prices. The demand is expected to first decrease and then increase, and the egg price is expected to first fall and then rise slightly this week [13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Prices and Changes**: For soybeans, the spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.61% to 8,120 yuan, and the futures price of Y2509 decreased by 0.53% to 7,530 yuan. For palm oil, the spot price in Guangdong decreased by 0.93% to 8,520 yuan, and the futures price of P2509 decreased by 0.43% to 7,920 yuan. For rapeseed oil, the spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 9,610 yuan, and the futures price of 01509 decreased by 0.44% to 9,026 yuan [1]. - **Spreads**: The soybean - palm oil spread and the rapeseed - soybean oil spread have changed to varying degrees. For example, the 2509 soybean - palm oil spread decreased by 7.76% to - 250 yuan [1]. Meal - **Prices and Changes**: The spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal decreased by 0.68% to 2,940 yuan, and the futures price of M2509 decreased by 0.07% to 2,950 yuan. The spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal increased by 0.40% to 2,510 yuan, and the futures price of RM2509 increased by 0.39% to 2,566 yuan [2]. - **Spreads**: The 09 - 01 spread of soybean meal decreased by 1.96% to - 52 yuan, and the 09 - 01 spread of rapeseed meal increased by 6.85% to 234 yuan [2]. Live Pigs - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The futures prices of the main contract and the 2507 and 2509 contracts of live pigs have all increased. The spot prices in various regions have also rebounded to varying degrees, with the largest increase of 550 yuan in Liaoning [4]. - **Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample points increased by 1.42%, the weekly white - strip price decreased by 100%, and the self - breeding and外购 breeding profits decreased by 40.23% and 133.32% respectively [4]. Corn - **Prices and Changes**: The futures price of corn 2507 decreased by 0.39% to 2,318 yuan, and the futures price of corn starch 2507 decreased by 0.38% to 2,653 yuan. The basis of corn and corn starch has changed, with the corn basis increasing by 128.57% [7]. - **Indicators**: The number of remaining vehicles in Shandong's deep - processing industry in the morning increased by 15.67%, and the import profit of corn increased by 2.80% [7]. Sugar - **Prices and Changes**: The futures price of sugar 2601 increased by 0.11%, and the futures price of sugar 2509 increased by 0.03%. The spot prices in Nanning and Kunming remained stable or decreased slightly [10]. - **Industry Indicators**: The national cumulative sugar production and sales have increased, and the industrial inventory has decreased. The cumulative national and Guangxi sugar sales rates have increased [10]. Cotton - **Prices and Changes**: The futures price of cotton 2509 decreased by 0.19%, and the futures price of cotton 2601 decreased by 0.19%. The spot prices in Xinjiang and other regions have changed slightly [12]. - **Industry Indicators**: The commercial and industrial inventories of cotton have decreased, and the cotton outbound shipment volume has increased by 22.6%. The export volume of textile yarns, fabrics and products, and clothing and accessories has changed to varying degrees [12]. Eggs - **Prices and Changes**: The futures prices of the 09 and 06 contracts of eggs have increased slightly. The egg - laying hen chick price remained unchanged, and the淘汰 chicken price decreased by 1.92% [13]. - **Indicators**: The basis of eggs increased by 42.40%, and the breeding profit increased by 7.32% [13].

Report Information - Report Date: May 22, 2025 [2] - Industry: Egg [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Product Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The current supply of eggs remains high, and the spot price has weakened again after a short - term rebound. The futures market is also showing a weak trend. The 07 contract has a relatively small decline, while the 08 contract is weaker. The near - month basis is at a normal level, with limited future drivers. The 08 contract is in a trend of squeezing out the premium and may show a slight decline in the short term. However, the 08 and 09 contracts are at historically low levels, and investors should wait for the梅雨 season expectations to be realized before entering the market [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - **Market Review**: The national egg price was stable today. The average price in the main production areas was 3.12 yuan/jin, down 0.02 yuan/jin from yesterday; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.18 yuan/jin, unchanged from yesterday. The 07 contract rose 0.20%. The 2506 contract closed at 2838, down 27 or 0.94%; the 2507 contract closed at 2959, up 6 or 0.20%; the 2508 contract closed at 3581, down 29 or 0.80% [7] - **Operation Suggestion**: The near - month basis is at a normal level in the same period of previous years, with limited future drivers. The 08 contract is in a trend of squeezing out the premium. In the short term, without holiday support, it may show a slight decline. But from an absolute price perspective, the 08 and 09 contracts are at historically low levels. Long - position investors should wait for the梅雨 season expectations to be realized before entering the market [8] 3.2行业要闻 - **Laying Hens Inventory**: As of the end of April, the national monthly inventory of laying hens was about 1.329 billion, a month - on - month increase of 0.8% and a year - on - year increase of 7.2% [9] - **Chick Hatchling Volume**: In April, the monthly hatchling volume of sample enterprises was about 46.99 million, an increase compared to March and the same period in 2024, ranking third in the past eight years [9] - **Chicken Culling Volume**: In the three weeks up to May 16, the national chicken culling volumes were 18.56 million, 17.25 million, and 16.58 million respectively. The culling volume has gradually recovered after the Spring Festival, and the absolute value is slightly higher than the previous two years. The average culling age as of May 15 was 534 days, 1 day earlier than last week and 2 days earlier than last month [9][10] 3.3数据概览 - The report provides multiple data charts, including the monthly inventory of laying hens in China, egg - chicken farming profit, the average price of eggs in the main production areas, the seasonal trend of the 06 contract, the basis of the 06 contract, and the 08 - 09 spread, with data sources from Wind,卓创资讯, and交易法门 [12][14][17]

行业 鸡蛋 日期 2025 年 5 月 20 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究中心 今日全国鸡蛋价格下跌。主产区平均价格 3.18 元/斤，较昨日下跌 0.1 元/ 斤；主销区平均价格 3.23 元/斤，较昨日下跌 0.13 元/斤。06 合约下跌 1.14%。 从上周末开始， ...