Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices are expected to have a long - term upward trend, with short - term adjustments. Alumina prices are likely to maintain a weak and volatile bottom - grinding market. Aluminum prices are expected to be weak in the short - term and strengthen in the medium - term. Nickel prices are expected to have increased volatility and a lower oscillation center. Stainless steel prices are expected to weaken. Tin prices will be in a short - term high - level oscillation. Industrial silicon prices may oscillate in the medium - term and be strong in the short - term. Polysilicon prices may have a limited short - term callback. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to continue to reduce inventory and support the price [6][14][20][46][53][60][64][71][76] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: On October 13, the Shanghai Copper 2511 contract closed at 85,120 yuan/ton, down 2.06%, and the Shanghai Copper Index reduced positions by 12,125 lots to 566,100 lots. The spot market trading improved with price drops, and the premium in Shanghai rose [2] - **Important Information**: As of October 13, the national copper inventory increased by 0.57 million tons to 17.2 million tons. In September, China imported 2.587 million tons of copper ore and concentrates, and the cumulative import from January to September was 22.634 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.7%. The export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in September was 521,000 tons, and the cumulative export from January to September was 4.516 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.1% [3][4] - **Logic Analysis**: Trump's tariff remarks and supply - side problems have affected copper prices. Mine supply tension has intensified, and consumption shows "not prosperous in the peak season", but there may be an increase in demand after price adjustments [6] - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a long - on - dips strategy for single - side trading, continue to hold cross - market positive spreads, and arrange cross - period positive spreads after domestic inventory decline. Keep options on hold [7][8][9] Alumina - **Market Review**: On October 13, the Alumina 2601 contract decreased by 57 yuan to 2,820 yuan/ton. Spot prices in most regions declined [10] - **Related Information**: An aluminum plant in Xinjiang purchased 10,000 tons of alumina on October 13. As of last Friday, the national alumina production capacity was 114.62 million tons, with 98.55 million tons in operation. In September, the actual production of alumina was 8.06 million tons, the net export was about 80,000 tons, and the demand was 7.552 million tons [11][12] - **Logic Analysis**: Affected by market sentiment, alumina prices fell. Although the static surplus has been absorbed, the surplus trend remains. The price is expected to be weak and volatile [14] - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading shows a weak and volatile trend. Keep arbitrage and options on hold [15][16] Aluminum - **Market Review**: On October 13, the Shanghai Aluminum 2511 contract decreased by 205 yuan to 20,885 yuan/ton. Spot prices in various regions declined [17] - **Related Information**: Trump's tariff policy was upgraded. In September, the national electrolytic aluminum weighted average full - cost was 15,977 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 4,798 yuan/ton. On October 13, the national aluminum ingot spot inventory was 642,000 tons, an increase of 80,000 tons [17] - **Trading Logic**: The tariff policy upgrade led to a decline in aluminum prices, but the medium - term upward trend remains. The market may have large - amplitude fluctuations [20] - **Trading Strategy**: Be on the sidelines in the short - term for single - side trading, and the medium - term trend is upward. Keep arbitrage and options on hold [21][22][23] Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: On October 13, the Casting Aluminum Alloy 2511 contract decreased by 225 yuan to 20,335 yuan/ton. Spot prices in various regions declined [25] - **Related Information**: Trump's tariff policy was upgraded. On October 13, the social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi decreased by 703 tons, and the casting aluminum alloy warehouse receipts increased by 2,503 tons [25][26] - **Trading Logic**: The tariff policy upgrade led to a decline in prices. Before the implementation of tariffs is clear, the negative impact of macro - sentiment on aluminum products is significant. The price will be weak, and scrap aluminum prices may support the spot price [27] - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to tariff policy developments for single - side trading. Keep arbitrage and options on hold [28][29][31] Zinc - **Market Review**: On October 13, Shanghai Zinc 2511 dropped 0.58% to 22,255 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai Zinc Index reduced positions by 2,771 lots to 212,600 lots. The spot market trading was light [32] - **Related Information**: As of October 13, the national zinc ingot inventory was 163,100 tons, an increase of 21,700 tons from September 29 [33] - **Logic Analysis**: In October, domestic zinc smelters increased production, and consumption did not improve significantly. The domestic price was under pressure, while the LME price was strong. The pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic may continue [34] - **Trading Strategy**: Close profitable short positions and wait for the export window to open to short again. Keep arbitrage on hold and close out the sold out - of - the - money call options [35][37] Lead - **Market Review**: On October 13, Shanghai Lead 2511 dropped 0.18% to 17,095 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai Lead Index increased positions by 5,004 lots to 82,700 lots. Part of the downstream replenished inventory, and the spot market had different purchasing attitudes [36] - **Related Information**: As of October 13, the national lead ingot social inventory was 36,000 tons, a decrease of 6,100 tons from September 29. The electric bicycle trade - in policy in Changsha and Shaoyang will be suspended on October 20 [39] - **Logic Analysis**: From September to mid - October, domestic lead production was relatively low. The inventory decreased during the National Day. The supply is weaker than demand currently, but the supply may increase in the second half of October, and the price may fall after rising [40] - **Trading Strategy**: The price may rise in the short - term but fall after rising. Keep arbitrage on hold and sell out - of - the - money call options [41] Nickel - **Market Review**: On October 13, the main contract of Shanghai Nickel NI2511 decreased by 2,080 yuan to 121,410 yuan/ton, and the index increased positions by 1,785 lots. Spot premiums changed [43] - **Related Information**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the trading margin and daily price limit for nickel futures on October 14. Some Indonesian mining companies resumed production. Goldman Sachs predicted that nickel prices would drop by 6% by December 2026 [44][46] - **Logic Analysis**: Due to the lack of profit - taking and Trump's remarks, the decline was relatively mild. The "de - globalization" trend and the surplus pattern will lead to increased volatility and a lower center of oscillation [46] - **Trading Strategy**: Short a small amount of the main contract. Keep arbitrage and options on hold [47][48][49] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: On October 13, the main contract of stainless steel SS2512 decreased by 205 yuan to 12,655 yuan/ton, and the index increased positions by 28,538 lots. The spot price range was given [51] - **Important Information**: Indonesia won the stainless - steel anti - dumping lawsuit against the EU, which is expected to boost exports. The national stainless - steel social inventory increased during the holiday [51][53] - **Logic Analysis**: The escalation of the Sino - US trade war affected external demand, and the inventory increased. The price was under pressure, and the market was waiting to see the inventory digestion this week [53] - **Trading Strategy**: The price will weaken. Keep arbitrage on hold [54][55] Tin - **Market Review**: On October 13, the main contract of Shanghai Tin 2511 closed at 282,110 yuan/ton, down 2.19%. The spot price dropped, and the trading was mainly for rigid demand [57] - **Related Information**: The US postponed the release of CPI data. As of October 10, the national tin ingot inventory decreased by 568 tons compared with September 26 [58][59] - **Logic Analysis**: Trump's tariff remarks led to a price drop. The supply of tin ore is still tight, and the demand is slowly recovering. Pay attention to Myanmar's resumption of production and electronic consumption recovery [60] - **Trading Strategy**: The price will oscillate at a high level in the short - term. Keep options on hold [61][62] Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: The US cancelled a solar project and planned to impose tariffs on Chinese goods. The production capacity in Xinjiang decreased, and the production capacity in the east increased. The southwest may reduce production in November [63][64] - **Logic Analysis**: The production decreased in Xinjiang and increased in the east. The southwest will reduce production in November. The demand is strong in the short - term, and the price may oscillate in the medium - term and be strong in the short - term [64] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Hold long positions. There is no arbitrage and option strategy currently [67][68] Polysilicon - **Important Information**: The US cancelled a solar project and planned to impose tariffs on Chinese goods. The production increased in October, and the silicon wafer production decreased [70][71] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply increased and the demand decreased in October. The concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts in November is the core driver of the price callback. The rumored state - purchase may limit the callback space [71] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Try to go long near the low point of the PS2512 contract in August. Hold the reverse arbitrage of 2511 and 2512 contracts. Buy both out - of - the - money call and put options [72] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: On October 13, the Lithium Carbonate 2511 contract decreased by 780 yuan to 72,500 yuan/ton, and the index increased positions by 1,306 lots. The spot price dropped [74] - **Important Information**: A lithium project in Jiangxi had major changes. In September, the sales of new - energy vehicles and the production of ternary materials increased [76] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply growth rate is lower than the demand in October, and the inventory is expected to continue to decrease, supporting the price. Consider closing short positions and going long if the price falls below 70,000 yuan [76] - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds and close short positions if the price falls below 70,000 yuan. Keep arbitrage and options on hold [77][78][79]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a daily morning observation of various commodities, including agricultural products, black metals, non-ferrous metals, and energy chemicals. The market trends of each commodity are analyzed based on factors such as supply and demand, macroeconomic conditions, and trade policies. The report suggests corresponding trading strategies for each commodity, including unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options trading. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Macro influences increase, and the volatility of meal products widens. The CBOT soybean and soybean meal indices decline. South American soybean exports to China offset the decrease in US soybean exports. It is recommended to short the soybean meal 05 contract at high points, hold long positions in rapeseed meal, and conduct M11 - 1 positive spreads [15][16][17]. - **Sugar**: Typhoon weather is favorable for the market. ICE and London sugar prices decline. Brazilian sugar production may increase, and the domestic sugar market is affected by the typhoon. It is expected that the international sugar price will fluctuate within a range, and the domestic sugar price will also show a short - term oscillatory trend [17][18][20]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: Sino - US tariffs resurface, and the market maintains a short - term oscillatory trend. The Malaysian palm oil inventory increases in September, and domestic soybean oil may gradually reduce inventory. It is recommended to wait and see first and consider lightly going long on dips [21][22][23]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: New grain is concentrated on the market, and the price oscillates at the bottom. The US corn price is weak, and domestic new - crop corn is abundant. It is recommended to go long on the 12 - month corn contract on dips, and gradually establish long - term long positions in the 05 and 07 corn contracts [24][25][27]. - **Hogs**: The pressure of slaughter continues to be reflected, and the spot price continues to decline. Hog prices fall in various regions, and the overall supply is sufficient. It is recommended to short at high points and conduct LH15 reverse spreads [27][28][29]. - **Peanuts**: Harvest is affected by rainfall, and peanuts are short - term bullish. The average price of peanuts declines slightly, and the inventory of peanut oil manufacturers changes. It is recommended to go long on the 01 and 05 peanut contracts lightly [30][31][32]. - **Eggs**: Oscillate weakly. Egg prices decline, and the inventory of laying hens is high. It is recommended to short near - month contracts at high points [33][34][36]. - **Apples**: Oscillate slightly bullishly. Apple inventory decreases, and new - crop apples are affected by rainfall. It is expected that the price will oscillate slightly bullishly in the short term [37][38][42]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: Oscillate slightly bearishly. ICE cotton prices decline. The Sino - US trade war affects cotton consumption. It is expected that the US cotton price will oscillate, and the Zhengzhou cotton price will oscillate slightly bearishly [43][44][46]. Black Metals - **Steel**: US tariff increases put slight pressure on steel prices. The black sector oscillates weakly, and steel inventories accumulate. It is recommended to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend and go long on the spread between hot - rolled and rebar at low points [48][49][50]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Long positions can be lightly established on dips. The market may be affected by macro - market sentiment, but the impact is expected to be small. It is recommended to go long on dips [50][51][53]. - **Iron Ore**: Adopt a bearish approach at high levels. Global iron ore shipments increase, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to hedge at high levels in the spot market and conduct reverse cash - and - carry arbitrage [53][54][56]. - **Ferroalloys**: The valuation is not high, and short positions can be reduced during macro - shocks. The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are stable to weak. It is recommended to reduce short positions during macro - shocks [56][57][58]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Precious Metals**: Trade disputes resurface, and they are driven by short - term risk - aversion sentiment. Gold and silver prices rise, and the US dollar index and bond yields decline. It is recommended to go long at low points [59][60][62]. - **Copper**: Tariffs cause a short - term setback in copper prices, but the long - term trend remains unchanged. Copper prices decline, and the supply is tight while consumption is weak. It is recommended to go long on dips [64][65][67]. - **Alumina**: The weak trend due to supply - demand surplus remains unchanged. The price of alumina declines, and the supply exceeds demand. It is expected to maintain a weak - oscillating and bottom - grinding trend [69][70][71]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Weakens with the increase in tariff policies, but the scrap aluminum price may be relatively firm. The futures price of cast aluminum alloy declines. The impact of tariffs is expected to be less severe than in April. It is necessary to pay attention to subsequent policies [74][75]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The short - term volatility increases due to panic sentiment, and the medium - term bullish trend remains unchanged. The price of electrolytic aluminum declines. The impact of tariffs is limited, and the medium - term price may strengthen [75][76][78]. - **Zinc**: There is obvious support below, and the zinc price may rebound. The domestic zinc price is under pressure, and the overseas price is strong. It is recommended to close out profitable short positions and go short again at high points [79][80][82]. - **Lead**: Supply and demand are both weak, and be wary of the lead price falling after rising. The lead price rises, and the supply may increase in the second half of October. It is recommended to be cautious as the price may fall after rising [83][84][87]. - **Nickel**: Volatility increases, and the price center moves down. The LME nickel price declines, and the inventory increases. The nickel market is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to decline [88][89][91]. - **Stainless Steel**: Oscillates downward. The stainless steel inventory increases, and the price is affected by tariffs. It is expected to oscillate weakly [92][93][95]. Energy and Chemicals - **Industrial Silicon**: Go long at the lower end of the range. Some silicon plants experience production disruptions, and the demand is strong in the short term. It is recommended to go long near the low point of the September disk [95][96][97]. - **Polysilicon**: The supply - side expectations are intertwined with weak reality. The US government cancels some energy projects. The polysilicon market is affected by production increases and potential cuts [97][98].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content was found in the provided reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - Near the Sino - US tariff extension deadline, tariff negotiation rhythm may drive short - term trading. The weak US employment data leads to expectations of further monetary easing by the Fed. The widening COMEX - LME spread attracts non - US copper to the US. In the long - term, copper supply shortage will support the price bottom, but short - term price is affected by demand changes and tariff negotiations [1]. Aluminum - After the holiday, the alumina futures price is under pressure, and the aluminum price fluctuates. The alumina supply is in excess, and the demand is weak. The aluminum market is in a tight balance, with high - price suppressing procurement and low inventory levels. The short - term prices of alumina and aluminum are expected to be range - bound [3]. Aluminum Alloy - After the holiday, the casting aluminum alloy futures price strengthens. The cost is supported, but the supply is restricted by raw materials and policies. The demand recovers moderately, and the inventory increase slows down. The short - term ADC12 price is expected to remain high and volatile [5]. Zinc - The supply of zinc is loose, and the demand is not outstanding. The short - term zinc price may be driven by the macro - environment, but the upward elasticity is limited. It may maintain a range - bound movement unless there are significant changes in demand or supply [8]. Tin - The supply of tin is tight, and the demand is weak. After the sharp decline of the outer - plate metal, the tin price may fall, but considering the strong fundamentals, it can be considered to buy at low prices after the risk is released. The future price depends on the supply recovery in Myanmar [10]. Nickel - The nickel price fluctuates widely. The macro - environment is uncertain, and the policy expectations of the Indonesian ore end are increasing. The cost is supported, but the medium - term supply is loose. The short - term price is expected to be range - bound [12]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel price fluctuates narrowly. The macro - environment is uncertain, the raw material price is firm, and the supply pressure is increasing. The demand improvement is not obvious, and the inventory reduction is slow. The short - term price is expected to be range - bound [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price fluctuates. The supply path is becoming clear, but the news may bring variables. The demand is optimistic, and the inventory is decreasing. The short - term price is expected to be range - bound [14]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 86,680 yuan/ton, up 1.10% [1]. - SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is 20 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [1]. Fundamental Data - September electrolytic copper production is 112.10 million tons, down 4.31% [1]. - August electrolytic copper import is 26.43 million tons, down 10.99% [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,980 yuan/ton, up 0.10% [3]. - SMM A00 aluminum premium is - 50 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [3]. Fundamental Data - September alumina production is 760.37 million tons, down 1.74% [3]. - September electrolytic aluminum production is 361.48 million tons, down 3.16% [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 21,100 yuan/ton, unchanged [5]. - The scrap - refined price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum is 1,524 yuan/ton, up 1.33% [5]. Fundamental Data - August recycled aluminum alloy ingot production is 66.10 million tons, up 7.48% [5]. - August primary aluminum alloy ingot production is 27.10 million tons, up 1.88% [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,300 yuan/ton, up 0.72% [8]. - The import profit and loss is - 3,968 yuan/ton, up 199.94 yuan [8]. Fundamental Data - September refined zinc production is 60.01 million tons, down 4.17% [8]. - August refined zinc import is 2.57 million tons, up 43.30% [8]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price is 287,400 yuan/ton, up 1.13% [10]. - SMM 1 tin premium is 300 yuan/ton, unchanged [10]. Fundamental Data - August tin ore import is 10,267 tons, down 0.11% [10]. - September SMM refined tin production is 10,510 tons, down 31.71% [10]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 123,850 yuan/ton, up 0.20% [12]. - 1 Jinchuan nickel premium is 2,300 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [12]. Supply and Inventory - China's refined nickel production is 32,200 tons, up 1.26% [12]. - Refined nickel import is 17,010 tons, down 3.00% [12]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price is 13,050 yuan/ton, down 0.38% [13]. - The spot - futures price difference is 13,220 yuan/ton, up 2597.96% [13]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 companies) is 187.48 million tons, up 4.42% [13]. - Stainless steel import is 11.72 million tons, up 60.48% [13]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 73,550 yuan/ton, unchanged [14]. - SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 71,300 yuan/ton, unchanged [14]. Fundamental Data - September lithium carbonate production is 87,260 tons, up 2.37% [14]. - September lithium carbonate demand is 116,801 tons, up 12.28% [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For nickel, the global nickel surplus pattern remains difficult to change, with increasing inventory, and prices will mainly oscillate within a platform range. For stainless steel, after the destocking ends, cost support weakens, and downstream demand is weak, so prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillating state [4][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Market Analysis - **Price**: This week, the main contract of Shanghai nickel showed a trend of rising first and then falling, with prices fluctuating between 121,220 - 124,880 yuan/ton and finally closing at 121,800 yuan/ton, a 0.49% increase from last week. Due to the overall strength of the non - ferrous sector during the National Day and the impact of Indonesia's new nickel ore policy, the price of Shanghai nickel opened higher and moved higher on October 9th, but the spot market trading was light, and the price quickly fell on October 10th. After the decline, downstream enterprises increased their purchases and the transaction improved. The latest offer of Jinchuan nickel's premium to the mainstream of Shanghai nickel 2511 decreased by 50 yuan/ton compared with last week, while the real - time converted premium in the Shanghai area increased by 1,100 yuan/ton compared with last week [1]. - **Macro**: The US federal government shutdown on October 1st increased the uncertainty of the global economic outlook. The cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation in October led to the strengthening of the US dollar index to 106.5 and the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate to 7.35, which put downward pressure on prices. During the National Day, China introduced new policies on culture, tourism, and infrastructure, strengthening the medium - and long - term demand expectation of new energy and high - end manufacturing for key metals. Coupled with the market's expectation of more "steady - growth" policies in the fourth quarter, the risk preference of the basic metals sector significantly increased [1]. Supply - The nickel ore market was relatively calm this week, and the price remained stable. In the Philippines, the rainy season is approaching in mining areas such as Surigao, and mines have gradually stopped shipping. Iron plants' profits have been hit, and they have maintained a cautious attitude towards purchasing nickel ore. In Indonesia, the supply of the nickel ore market remains in a loose pattern. However, the Indonesian government has shortened the mining license period from 3 years to 1 year, which has short - term concerns about the supply stability in 2026 and later. Although the 2025 quota is still valid, the policy adjustment has added variables to the medium - and long - term production capacity release [2]. Consumption - In September, the demand for stainless steel and battery materials remained basically stable, and the nickel consumption of alloys and special steels increased to some extent. However, considering that "Golden September and Silver October" is the traditional consumption peak season, the overall consumption growth was lower than expected [2]. Cost and Profit - The cost of producing electrowon nickel from integrated MHP is 116,448 yuan/ton, with a profit of 4.40%; the cost of producing electrowon nickel from integrated high - matte nickel is 124,802 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 2.60%; the cost of producing electrowon nickel from externally purchased nickel sulfate is 137,134 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 10.50%; the cost of producing electrowon nickel from externally purchased MHP is 137,839 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 10.90%; the cost of producing electrowon nickel from externally purchased high - matte nickel is 132,859 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 7.60% [2]. Inventory - This week, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's nickel inventory was 33,119 tons, a decrease of 504 tons from last week; the LME nickel inventory was 237,378 tons, a decrease of 204 tons from last week; the nickel inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 3,700 tons, remaining unchanged from last week; the refined nickel inventory in China (including the free - trade zone) was 45,630 tons, a decrease of 1,371 tons from last week [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: None; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None; Spot - futures: Maintain the idea of selling hedging on rallies in the medium - and long - term; Options: None [4]. Stainless Steel Market Analysis - **Price**: This week, the main contract of stainless steel futures showed a trend of rising first and then falling, closing at 12,805 yuan/ton on Friday, a 55 - yuan increase from last week's 12,750 yuan/ton. In the first week after the festival, the spot market continued the pre - festival light situation, with poor transaction conditions and small fluctuations in overall quotes [4]. - **Macro**: During the festival, the US government shutdown increased the capital's risk - aversion demand, pushing up the overall price of commodity futures. Coupled with the expectation of two more Fed interest - rate cuts this year, it was generally positive for commodity prices. The cultural and tourism consumption stimulus policies and infrastructure investment plans introduced during the National Day enhanced the market's confidence in the economic recovery in the fourth quarter. The collective strength of the basic metals sector drove the stainless steel futures to rise [4]. Supply - As "Golden September and Silver October" is coming to an end, the stainless steel operating rate remains at a high level. Some steel mills are still operating at full capacity to complete their annual production plans. At the same time, due to the low inventory of steel mills, some shut - down steel mills have adjusted and resumed production. It is expected that the output will continue to increase in October [5]. Consumption - In the new energy sector, the demand for battery cases and photovoltaic brackets has increased to some extent, but the overall downstream demand is weak. The main downstream industries such as home appliances, machinery, and construction have a low willingness to purchase stainless steel. Especially the home appliance industry, affected by the continuous downturn of the real estate market, the sales growth of kitchen appliances, sanitary equipment and other products is slow, reducing the demand for stainless steel sheets [5]. Cost and Profit - This week, the purchase prices of high - nickel ferrochrome and high - carbon ferrochrome both decreased, driving down the cost of stainless steel. As of October 10th, the cost of smelting 304 cold - rolled stainless steel by the short - process was 13,078 yuan/ton, a - 0.66% month - on - month change; the cost of smelting 304 cold - rolled stainless steel by the process of purchasing high - nickel ferrochrome externally was 14,258 yuan/ton, a - 0.52% month - on - month change; the cost of smelting 304 cold - rolled stainless steel by the integrated process was 13,783 yuan/ton, a 0.00% month - on - month change [5]. Inventory - On August 29th, the total social inventory of stainless steel in 89 warehouses in the national mainstream market was 1,053,646 tons, a + 7.97% week - on - week change. The total inventory of cold - rolled stainless steel was 624,731 tons, a + 6.14% week - on - week change. The total inventory of hot - rolled stainless steel was 428,915 tons, a + 10.74% week - on - week change. The stainless steel inventory has continued to decline for eight consecutive weeks and has basically returned to the beginning - of - year level [6]. Strategy - Unilateral: None; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel price is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate mainly due to the resonance of macro - sentiment and refined nickel inventory build - up, along with potential uncertainties from Indonesian news [1]. - The stainless - steel price is likely to fluctuate weakly next week as macro and real - world factors exert pressure, and while cost restricts its elasticity, the cost marginally declines [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Market Analysis - **Fundamentals**: Macro - sentiment and refined nickel inventory build - up put pressure on the nickel market. Trade war escalation and expected new pure - nickel production in the second half of the year increase supply, while alloy use of nickel - iron instead of nickel plates suppresses demand. Although non - standard nickel fundamentals improve marginally, the inventory build - up problem in refined nickel remains. Indonesian news may increase market concerns about nickel - ore supply governance, and the nickel - ore premium shows signs of stabilization and a slight increase [1]. - **Inventory**: China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 5,190 tons to 45,630 tons. LME nickel inventory increased by 7,254 tons to 237,378 tons [5]. Stainless - Steel Market Analysis - **Fundamentals**: The demand for stainless steel is suppressed by tariffs and weak post - real - estate cycle consumption. The overall apparent demand growth rate has converged. The trade - war resurgence may pressure long - term demand. Supply is expected to increase slightly, but actual production may fall short of expectations. The real - world fundamentals lack upward drivers due to significant holiday inventory build - up, high upstream inventory, and weak peak - season demand. Cost provides a bottom - support, but short - term nickel - iron price drops may lead to cost adjustments [2]. - **Inventory**: In September, SMM stainless - steel factory inventory was 1.532 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 4% and a month - on - month decrease of 1%. Steel Union's stainless - steel social inventory was 1.054 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 8% [5]. New Energy Market Inventory - On October 10, the inventory days of SMM nickel sulfate upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines changed by +1, - 1, and 0 months - on - month to 5, 9, and 7 days respectively. On September 26, the precursor inventory changed by - 0.6 months - on - month to 14.0 days. On October 9, the ternary material inventory changed by - 0.1 months - on - month to 7.1 days [5]. Market News - In September, due to violations of forestry license regulations, the Indonesian forestry working group took over part of the PT WedaBav Nickel mine. The Indonesian government also sanctioned 190 mining companies for non - payment of reclamation deposits. The Indonesian government requires companies to resubmit the 2026 RKAB budget online from October 1 to November 15 [6][7]. - Trump announced on October 10 that he may impose an additional 100% tariff on China starting from November 1 and implement export controls on "all key software" [7]. Futures Research Data - **Prices and Volumes**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 122,180, down 2,300; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,780, down 80. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 159,070, an increase of 28,206; the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract was 160,027, a decrease of 17,063 [9]. - **Industry Chain Data**: Data such as the price of 1 imported nickel, Russian nickel premium, nickel - bean premium, and various product price spreads and import profits are provided [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The copper market is affected by supply disruptions and consumption trends, with short - term price pressure at $11,000 per ton and a need for consolidation [2][4][5]. - The alumina market is in an oversupply situation, and prices are expected to be in a low - level oscillating bottom - grinding pattern before large - scale production cuts [9][12]. - The aluminum market shows some resilience, with domestic prices mainly driven by overseas monetary policy expectations, and short - term seasonal inventory accumulation having a relatively low impact on prices [15][17][19]. - The casting aluminum alloy market's ADC12 spot price is expected to be supported by cost, and prices are expected to be positive after a pull - back [23][24][25]. - The zinc market is supported by overseas inventory reduction, but there is a risk of price decline if there is large - scale warehousing in LME after the export window opens [29][30][31]. - The lead market has a tight balance in lead concentrate supply, and prices may rise and then fall due to supply increases and lackluster consumption growth [34][36][37]. - The nickel market is expected to fluctuate widely within the range formed by oversupply and cost support [40][42][43]. - The stainless steel market is expected to fluctuate widely, with overseas policy relaxation potentially boosting exports and domestic demand remaining stable [47][49][50]. - The tin market is in a short - term high - level oscillation, and future trends depend on the resumption of production in Myanmar and the recovery of electronic consumption [53][58][59]. - The industrial silicon market is expected to oscillate within a range, with a possible slight oversupply in November [61][65][66]. - The polysilicon market has a complex situation, with supply - demand factors and warehouse receipt cancellation affecting prices, and it is recommended to pay attention to warehouse receipt cancellation before participating [67][69][70]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to fluctuate widely, with limited upward and downward drivers in the near term [73][76][79]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Copper 2511 contract closed at 85,910 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous settlement price, and the spot premium stabilized. The LME copper price premium was $315 [2]. - **Important Information**: Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts, and Zambia is expected to set a new record for copper production [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply disruptions from mines increase, and consumption shows a "peak season without peak" situation [2][4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term prices may need to consolidate at the $11,000/ton resistance level. Consider long positions on dips and be cautious about chasing high prices. Hold cross - market positive spreads and arrange cross - period positive spreads after domestic inventory starts to decline. Keep options on hold [5][6][7]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2601 contract fell by 15 yuan to 2,856 yuan/ton, and spot prices in different regions showed varying degrees of decline [8]. - **Important Information**: Inventory increased, supply was in excess, and the industry's average profit decreased [9][10]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply increase leads to an oversupply pattern, and prices are expected to oscillate at a low level before large - scale production cuts [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be weak and oscillating. Keep options and spreads on hold [13][14]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2511 contract fell by 25 yuan to 20,980 yuan/ton, and spot prices in different regions changed slightly [15]. - **Important Information**: The US government shutdown and Fed officials' differences in interest rate cuts affected the market. Production costs decreased, and inventory increased slightly [15][16]. - **Logic Analysis**: The London aluminum price is under pressure at the upper edge of the wide - range oscillation range. Domestic prices are mainly driven by overseas monetary policy expectations [17][19]. - **Trading Strategy**: Be bullish after a pull - back. Keep options and spreads on hold [20][21]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell by 20 yuan to 20,465 yuan/ton, and spot prices in different regions changed slightly [23]. - **Important Information**: After the National Day holiday, many enterprises increased inventory, and the warehouse receipt of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased [23]. - **Logic Analysis**: The high price of scrap aluminum and cost support are expected to support the ADC12 spot price [24]. - **Trading Strategy**: Be bullish after a pull - back. Keep options and spreads on hold [25][26]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Zinc 2511 rose 0.32% to 22,270 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Shanghai increased due to supply shortages [29]. - **Important Information**: Domestic zinc concentrate processing fees continued to decline, and the Kipushi concentrator set a new production record [30]. - **Logic Analysis**: Overseas inventory reduction supports prices, but there is a risk of price decline if there is large - scale warehousing in LME after the export window opens [31]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term prices are supported by the external market. Consider short positions on rallies. Keep options and spreads on hold [32]. Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Lead 2511 rose 0.59% to 17,140 yuan/ton, and the spot price increased, but downstream buying willingness declined [34]. - **Important Information**: Some lead smelters in Anhui resumed production or were about to resume production [36]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of lead concentrate is in a tight balance, and the production of secondary lead may increase, while consumption in the peak season is not as expected [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices may rise and then fall. Keep options and spreads on hold [38]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Nickel NI2511 fell by 940 to 122,180 yuan/ton, and the premium of Jinchuan nickel decreased [40]. - **Important Information**: Indonesian nickel - mining policies and export controls on some products affected the market [42]. - **Logic Analysis**: LME inventory increased, and the impact of export controls was small. Prices are expected to fluctuate widely [42][43]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Keep options and spreads on hold [43][44][45]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main contract of stainless steel SS2511 fell by 20 to 12,780 yuan/ton, and spot prices remained stable [47]. - **Important Information**: Overseas policies are expected to boost exports, and the WTO ruled that the EU's anti - dumping measures against Indonesian stainless steel products were illegal [48][49]. - **Logic Analysis**: Overseas policy relaxation may boost exports, and domestic demand is stable. Prices are expected to fluctuate widely [49][50]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Keep spreads on hold [50][51]. Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Tin 2511 rose by 1,280 to 286,350 yuan/ton, and the spot price increased. The market expected a short - term weak situation to continue [53]. - **Important Information**: The US may release CPI data, and Indonesia adjusted the tin procurement price and strengthened industry governance [54][57]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of tin concentrate is still tight, and demand is sluggish. Pay attention to the resumption of production in Myanmar and the recovery of electronic consumption [58]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term high - level oscillation. Keep options on hold and pay attention to the resumption of production in Myanmar [59][60]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of industrial silicon futures rose 0.46% to 8,685 yuan/ton, and the spot price was stable [61][62]. - **Important Information**: The National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on price governance [63]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply and demand may lead to a slight oversupply in November, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [65]. - **Trading Strategy**: Operate within the range of (8,200, 9,300) for the near - month contract. Keep options and spreads on hold [66]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of polysilicon futures fell 2.43% to 48,965 yuan/ton, and the spot price was stable [67]. - **Important Information**: The National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on price governance [68]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply - demand factors are bearish on prices in October, and warehouse receipt cancellation will be the main logic in November. The market is in a state of high - level game [69]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to warehouse receipt cancellation before participating. Hold reverse spreads for the 2511 and 2512 contracts, and buy both out - of - the - money call and put options [69][70][72]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The lithium carbonate 2511 contract fell by 960 to 72,740 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged [73]. - **Important Information**: Zangge Mining obtained mining rights, and export controls on some products were implemented [74]. - **Logic Analysis**: Inventory decreased during the holiday, and the impact of export controls was limited. Prices are expected to fluctuate widely [76]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Keep options and spreads on hold [79].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For the nickel market, macro - impacts are limited, and nickel prices will return to the fundamental logic. With high inventories and a persistent supply - surplus situation, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. For the stainless - steel market, due to the lower - than - expected consumption in the peak season, high operating rates of stainless - steel enterprises, and the re - entry into the inventory - accumulation phase, stainless - steel prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On October 9, 2025, the main contract 2511 of Shanghai nickel opened at 121,300 yuan/ton and closed at 124,480 yuan/ton, a 2.39% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 130,864 (+3,674) lots, and the open interest was 86,038 (9,898) lots. Domestic new policies on culture, tourism, and infrastructure during the National Day holiday strengthened the medium - to - long - term demand expectations for key metals in new energy and high - end manufacturing. Overseas, after the Fed cut interest rates by 25BP in September, the market's bet on further easing at the late - October FOMC meeting increased, and the US dollar index slightly declined [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: After the holiday, the nickel - ore market was mainly in a wait - and - see mode with stable prices. In the Philippines, Surigao mines are about to enter the rainy season, and mine quotes remain firm. In Indonesia, the nickel - ore market supply is in a continuous loose pattern, and the 10 - month (first - phase) domestic trade benchmark price is expected to rise by 0.16 - 0.28 dollars. The new RKAB policy in Indonesia has increased the uncertainty of medium - to - long - term production capacity release [2]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 125,100 yuan/ton, up 1,700 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Driven by the collective rise of the non - ferrous sector and post - holiday restocking demand, the trading of refined nickel was fair, and the premiums of some brands increased slightly but remained stable overall [3]. - **Strategy** - The macro - impact on nickel prices is limited, and prices will return to the fundamental logic. With high inventories and a supply - surplus situation, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. The recommended strategy is mainly range - trading for single - side operations, and there are no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or option operations [4]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On October 9, 2025, the main contract 2511 of stainless steel opened at 12,770 yuan/ton and closed at 12,860 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 88,195 (-39,957) lots, and the open interest was 60,514 (-4,171) lots. On the first trading day after the holiday, although LME nickel rose sharply during the holiday, the stainless - steel contract opened lower due to the decline of the black - metal sector. It then rose in the afternoon driven by the increase in Shanghai nickel but failed to break through the resistance near 12,900 yuan/ton [5]. - **Spot**: On the first day of resuming work after the holiday, the spot market remained sluggish as before the holiday, and downstream buyers remained on the sidelines. Affected by the rise in the Shanghai nickel futures price in the afternoon, the spot price of stainless steel increased slightly, but the downstream acceptance of high prices was still limited [5]. - **Strategy** - Due to the lower - than - expected consumption in the peak season, high operating rates of stainless - steel enterprises, and the re - entry into the inventory - accumulation phase, stainless - steel prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation. The recommended single - side strategy is neutral, and there are no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or option operations [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After continuous gains, high - flying sectors like AI have shown divergence recently, while sectors such as nuclear fusion, chips, and non - ferrous metals have emerged. Although short - term index fluctuations have increased, the long - term strategy is to go long on dips due to policy support for the capital market [4]. - In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand pattern of the bond market may improve. The market is likely to remain volatile under the intertwined bull - bear background of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations. Pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. - With the weakening of the US dollar credit and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, maintain a medium - term bullish view on precious metals. However, there is a significant risk of price correction in the short term [9]. - For most metals, factors such as supply - demand changes, cost fluctuations, and market sentiment affect their prices. For example, copper is supported by supply tightening and Fed rate - cut expectations; aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong; zinc is expected to be strong in the short term; and nickel may have a short - term downward exploration but is supported in the long term [12][14][16][18]. - For black building materials, although the current real - world demand for steel is weak, the market's expectation of demand recovery is rising. The price of iron ore may adjust if the downstream situation weakens. Glass is recommended to be treated bullishly in the short term, and soda ash is expected to be range - bound [31][33][35]. - For energy and chemical products, rubber is recommended to go long on dips; for crude oil, wait and see in the short term; methanol and urea can be considered for short - term long positions after a decline; and for some chemical products like PVC and ethylene glycol, the supply - demand situation is weak, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [53][55][56][58]. - For agricultural products, the prices of live pigs and eggs are expected to be weak in the short term; soybean meal is expected to be weak and volatile; oils are expected to be strong; sugar is recommended to be shorted on rallies; and cotton is likely to be weak in the short term [77][79][82][84][87][89]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Category Stock Index - **Market News**: The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs have imposed export controls on certain items; some foreign entities have been included in the unreliable entity list; some securities firms have adjusted the margin conversion ratios of certain stocks; and the price of spot gold remains high, with some banks adjusting their related businesses [2]. - **Basis Ratio of Stock Index Futures**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH in different contract periods are provided [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the previous continuous rise, the high - flying sectors have shown divergence, and the short - term index fluctuations have increased. However, the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market News**: The prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts have changed; the daily average sales revenue of the national consumption - related industries during the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays has increased year - on - year; and export controls have been imposed on some medium - heavy rare earth - related items [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 6120 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 14513 billion yuan on the day [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The manufacturing PMI has rebounded, but the follow - up social financing and money growth may be under pressure. The bond market is expected to be volatile, and pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. Precious Metals - **Market News**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver have declined, while the prices of COMEX gold and silver have increased. The US government shutdown has affected the release of economic data, and the Fed's meeting minutes show differences in the outlook for interest rates [8][9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Maintain a medium - term bullish view on precious metals, but pay attention to short - term price corrections [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market News**: After the National Day, the copper price continued to be strong. The LME copper inventory increased, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory also increased. The spot import loss expanded, and the scrap copper substitution advantage increased [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supply tightening and Fed rate - cut expectations support the copper price, but the short - term upward pace may slow down [12]. Aluminum - **Market News**: On the first day after the National Day, non - ferrous metals generally strengthened. The LME aluminum price rose, and the domestic aluminum inventory increased. The market atmosphere was warm, but the trade situation was still volatile [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The aluminum price is expected to be volatile and strong [14]. Zinc - **Market News**: The Shanghai zinc index rose, and the LME zinc price fell. The domestic social inventory increased slightly, and the zinc export window opened [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Shanghai zinc is expected to be strong in the short term [16]. Lead - **Market News**: The Shanghai lead index rose, and the LME lead price also rose. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Shanghai lead is expected to be in a wide - range low - level shock in the short term [17]. Nickel - **Market News**: The nickel price rose significantly. The nickel ore price was stable, the nickel iron price was stable, and the MHP coefficient price increased slightly [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term nickel price may decline, but it is supported in the long term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go long on dips [18]. Tin - **Market News**: The tin price was strong. The supply was expected to increase slightly, and the demand in the traditional consumer electronics and home appliance sectors was still weak [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tin price is expected to be high - level volatile in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [21]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market News**: The carbonate lithium price was stable. The social inventory decreased, and a company obtained mining rights [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand mismatch has led to a decrease in inventory. Pay attention to the supply and demand situation and the market atmosphere [22]. Alumina - **Market News**: The alumina index rose. The domestic and overseas prices changed, and the import window opened [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The alumina market is expected to be volatile. Wait and see for the macro - mood resonance [24]. Stainless Steel - **Market News**: The stainless steel price rose. The raw material prices were stable, and the social inventory decreased slightly [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The stainless steel price is expected to be range - bound. Pay attention to the RKAB approval progress [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market News**: The cast aluminum alloy price rose. The trading volume increased, and the inventory increased slightly [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The downstream consumption is in the peak season, but the delivery pressure of the near - term contract is large, and the upside space is limited [28]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market News**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil rose. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil remained unchanged [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current real - world demand for steel is weak, but the market's expectation of demand recovery is rising. Pay attention to policy signals [31]. Iron Ore - **Market News**: The iron ore price rose. The overseas shipment decreased, and the domestic arrival increased. The steel mill's profit rate continued to decline [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The iron ore price may adjust if the downstream situation weakens. Pay attention to the "Silver October" performance after restocking [33]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market News**: The glass price rose, and the inventory increased. The soda ash price fell, and the inventory decreased [34][36]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Glass is recommended to be treated bullishly in the short term, and soda ash is expected to be range - bound [35][37]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market News**: The manganese silicon price rose slightly, and the ferrosilicon price fell slightly. The prices are in a shock range [38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The black sector may first decline and then rise. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black sector's trend [39][40][41]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market News**: The industrial silicon price was stable, and the polysilicon price fell. The supply and demand of industrial silicon changed little, and the polysilicon inventory was limited [42][44]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon is expected to be range - bound in the short term, and polysilicon may improve if the leading enterprises conduct maintenance [43][46]. Energy and Chemical Category Rubber - **Market News**: The rubber price stabilized. The tire production rate decreased, and the inventory decreased slightly. The spot price changed [48][50][52]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Go long on dips and partially build a hedging position [53]. Crude Oil - **Market News**: The crude oil price fell, and the inventories of related products changed. The US EIA data showed inventory changes [54]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term and verify the OPEC's export - price - support intention [55]. Methanol - **Market News**: The methanol price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Consider short - term long positions after a decline [56]. Urea - **Market News**: The urea price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [57]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Consider long positions at a low price [58]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market News**: The pure benzene price was stable, and the styrene price fell. The supply and demand changed, and the inventory increased [59]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The styrene price may stop falling due to the seasonal peak season [60]. PVC - **Market News**: The PVC price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was strong, and the demand was weak [61]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PVC market is bearish in the medium term. Consider short positions [63]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: The ethylene glycol price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [64]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term [65]. PTA - **Market News**: The PTA price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was affected by maintenance, and the demand was stable [66]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term [67]. Para - Xylene - **Market News**: The para - xylene price rose, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was affected by PTA maintenance [68]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the terminal and PTA valuation [69]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market News**: The PE price fell, and the inventory decreased. The supply was limited, and the demand was expected to increase [70]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE price may rise in the long term [71]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market News**: The PP price fell, and the inventory was high. The supply was large, and the demand was weak [72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PP market is in a weak supply - demand situation, and the inventory pressure is high [74]. Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - **Market News**: The live pig price continued to fall. The slaughtering and sales situation was not good [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The live pig price is expected to be weak in the short term. Short the near - term contract and conduct reverse hedging [77]. Eggs - **Market News**: The egg price generally fell. The supply was greater than the demand, and the market confidence was low [78]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The egg price is expected to be weak in the short term. Wait for the bottom - building [79]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market News**: The CBOT soybean price fell slightly. The domestic soybean meal price was stable, and the import cost was affected by multiple factors [80][81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic soybean meal supply pressure is large. It is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [82]. Oils - **Market News**: Indonesia is promoting the B50 biodiesel plan. The domestic oil price rose, and the inventory may decrease [83]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oil price is expected to be strong. Go long on dips [84]. Sugar - **Market News**: The sugar price rebounded slightly. The Brazilian sugar production data was released, and the port waiting quantity increased [85][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The sugar price is expected to be bearish in the long term. Short on rallies in the fourth quarter [87]. Cotton - **Market News**: The cotton price rebounded slightly. The spot price fell, and the acquisition price was lower than last year [88]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cotton price is likely to be weak in the short term. There is cost support at the bottom [89].

Report Overview - Report Date: October 9, 2025 - Report Type: Daily Morning Observation of Non - ferrous and Precious Metals - Report Sector: Non - ferrous metals and precious metals 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes the market conditions, important information, logical reasoning, and provides trading strategies for various non - ferrous metals and precious metals. Overall, the precious metals market is in an upward trend, while different non - ferrous metals have different market trends and challenges, such as supply shortages, demand fluctuations, and policy impacts [2][4][7]. 3. Summary by Metal Type Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold broke through the $4000/oz mark, closing up 1.4% at $4040.745/oz; London silver rose 2.36% to $48.88/oz. The US dollar index rose 0.15% to 98.767, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield weakened to 4.11% [2]. - **Important Information**: The US Senate rejected the bipartisan appropriation bill, the Fed is divided on interest rate cuts, and the probability of interest rate cuts is high. Trump announced a peace plan between Israel and Hamas [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: Uncertainties such as the US government shutdown, global political turmoil, and China's increase in gold reserves have increased investors' demand for gold as a hedge, pushing up gold prices. Silver prices have also risen due to expectations of interest rate cuts [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for opportunities to go long on the dips for single - sided trading; wait and see for arbitrage; take profit on out - of - the - money call options and collar call options bought before the holiday [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: LME copper closed at $10701/ton, down 0.23%. LME inventory decreased by 225 tons to 139,200 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 1947 tons to 335,500 tons [6]. - **Important Information**: The US government shutdown continued, QB mine cut copper production guidance, Aurubis raised the price of refined copper, and Australia provided financial support to copper smelters [6][7]. - **Logic Analysis**: Copper mine supply is tight, and the transfer from the mine end to the smelting end may be faster. Consumption is weak, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a long - on - dips strategy for single - sided trading; hold cross - market positive spreads and arrange cross - period positive spreads after domestic inventory decreases; wait and see for options [8]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2601 contract fell to 2868 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions showed a narrow - range decline [10][11]. - **Important Information**: Overseas alumina was traded at different prices, Inalum planned to expand production, and the supply of alumina was estimated to be in surplus in September [11][12]. - **Logic Analysis**: Alumina supply is in an excess pattern, and prices are expected to be in a low - level oscillating pattern before large - scale production cuts [13]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect alumina to maintain a weak trend for single - sided trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell to 20160 yuan/ton, and the spot price was stable [16]. - **Important Information**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange's aluminum alloy warehouse receipts increased, and most aluminum die - casting enterprises extended their holidays [16]. - **Logic Analysis**: The demand for raw material inventory in recycled aluminum plants is restricted, and the holiday of downstream die - casting enterprises is extended. The spot price is expected to be firm, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of cash - and - carry arbitrage [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the aluminum alloy futures price to open higher and then weaken slightly for single - sided trading; pay attention to cash - and - carry arbitrage if the futures price opens higher; wait and see for options [17]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The SHFE aluminum 2511 contract fell to 20680 yuan/ton, and the LME aluminum price rose 3.22% during the holiday. The spot price increased [20]. - **Important Information**: The US government shutdown and the Fed's internal differences in interest rate cuts. The domestic aluminum rod production capacity expanded, and some enterprises increased production during the holiday [20][21]. - **Logic Analysis**: Affected by interest rate cut expectations and the resonance of the non - ferrous metal sector, the LME aluminum price rose during the holiday. The domestic demand is slowly recovering, and there may be short - term inventory accumulation after the holiday [21][22]. - **Trading Strategy**: Be cautious about chasing high prices and wait and see for single - sided trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [23]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The LME zinc price fell 1.53% to $2995/ton, and the spot price was stable. The LME zinc inventory decreased [25][26]. - **Important Information**: Kipushi mine increased production, Golden Grove mine postponed high - grade zinc ore mining, and the LME zinc inventory decreased [25][26]. - **Logic Analysis**: The non - ferrous metal sector was strong during the holiday, and the LME zinc inventory decreased to a two - year low. The domestic market is in surplus, and the pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic is expected to continue [26][28]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the SHFE zinc price to be strong in the short term and go short on the high for single - sided trading; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options for options [28]. Lead - **Market Review**: The LME lead price fell 0.02% to $2005.5/ton, and the spot price was stable. The LME lead inventory was high [30]. - **Important Information**: A lead - zinc mine in Fujian postponed production [30]. - **Logic Analysis**: The demand for lead concentrate is large, and the supply is in a tight balance. The primary lead smelter is in a small loss, and the secondary lead smelter may increase production. The consumption season is not as expected [32]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the lead price to fall; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options for options [33]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The LME nickel price fell to $15390/ton, and the inventory increased. The spot premium decreased [34]. - **Important Information**: Global nickel demand and production are expected to increase in 2026, and Indonesia adjusted the RKAB approval system [34][36]. - **Logic Analysis**: The global primary nickel supply is expected to be in excess, and the nickel price is expected to fluctuate within a range [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for options [37]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The stainless steel SS2511 contract closed at 12730 yuan/ton, and the spot price was stable [39]. - **Important Information**: The EU tightened steel import policies, and a South Korean buyer cancelled an order from a Taiwanese supplier [40]. - **Logic Analysis**: The terminal demand for stainless steel is differentiated, and the supply is high. Without production - capacity reduction policies, the trend is weak [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect a weak oscillation for single - sided trading; wait and see for arbitrage [42]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures price fell before the holiday, and the spot price was at a premium [44][45]. - **Important Information**: Industrial silicon exports increased in August, and imports decreased [45]. - **Logic Analysis**: The output increased, and the demand was strong in the short term. It is recommended to buy on the dips [45]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on the dips for single - sided trading; buy out - of - the - money put options for options; no strategy for arbitrage [46]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures price oscillated narrowly before the holiday, and the spot price was stable [48]. - **Important Information**: India imposed anti - dumping duties on Chinese polysilicon products [48]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase in October, demand is weakening, and there may be a callback in November. It is recommended to buy on the dips after the callback [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on the dips after a full callback for single - sided trading; conduct reverse spreads for the 2511 and 2512 contracts for arbitrage; buy deep out - of - the - money call and put options for options [49]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The lithium carbonate 2511 contract closed at 72800 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased [52]. - **Important Information**: Chile's lithium exports increased in September, the US terminated energy projects, and a Chinese research team made a breakthrough in solid - state lithium batteries [53]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are tight in October and may return to balance in November. October may be a turning point [54]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect a wide - range oscillation for single - sided trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [56]. Tin - **Market Review**: The LME tin price fell to $36250/ton, and the spot price rose. The LME tin inventory increased [57][58]. - **Important Information**: The US government shutdown continued, and the global AI infrastructure expenditure is expected to reach $2 trillion in 2026 [57][58]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is weak. Pay attention to the resumption of production in Myanmar and the recovery of electronic consumption [58]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect a short - term weak oscillation and pay attention to the resumption of production in Myanmar for single - sided trading; wait and see for options [58][61].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The copper market is affected by supply disruptions and production cuts, with supply expected to increase and consumption remaining weak next week. The overall trend is a bullish one, but caution is needed when chasing high prices [3][7][8]. - The alumina market remains in an oversupply situation, and prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillating pattern before large - scale production cuts [15]. - The aluminum market is influenced by overseas monetary policy expectations, and prices are expected to rise with the external market, despite short - term seasonal inventory accumulation [20][21]. - The casting aluminum alloy market is supported by cost, and futures prices are expected to be relatively strong [26][27]. - The zinc market may be supported by overseas de - stocking, but there is a risk of price decline if there is large - scale overseas warehousing. Short - term prices may be strong, but short positions can be lightly tested at high prices [32][33][34]. - The lead market has a tight balance in the raw material end and uncertain production at the smelting end. Consumption is not as expected in the peak season. Prices may rise in the short term but have a risk of falling back [39][40][41]. - The nickel market is expected to remain in a wide - range oscillation due to a large surplus in the next two years and limited impact from policy changes [44][46][47]. - The stainless steel market has a differentiated terminal demand, and prices are expected to oscillate widely, following the macro - sentiment and nickel prices [53][54][55]. - The tin market has a tight supply at the mine end, and short - term prices may oscillate with limited space. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar [59][62][63]. - The industrial silicon market has strong short - term demand, and the strategy is to buy on dips [67][68][70]. - The polysilicon market is affected by supply - demand imbalance, and the optimal strategy is to buy low after a callback [73][74][75]. - The lithium carbonate market is in a tight supply - demand situation in October, but may return to balance in November. Prices are expected to oscillate widely [77][79][80]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Copper 2511 contract closed at 86,750 yuan/ton, up 4.19%, and the Shanghai Copper Index increased its positions by 31,427 lots to 564,600 lots [2]. - Spot: After the holiday, copper prices soared, and spot trading was sluggish. Premiums varied in different regions [2]. Important Information - As of October 9, the national mainstream copper inventory increased, and it is expected to increase next week due to supply increase and consumption weakness [3]. - On October 8, the Canadian mining company Hudbay Minerals resumed operations at its Peruvian copper mine [4]. Logic Analysis - Supply disruptions and production cuts intensify the tightness of copper mines, and the transfer from the mine end to the smelting end may be faster. Consumption is weak, and prices are mainly affected by rigid demand [5][7]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Adopt a long - on - dips strategy and be cautious when chasing high prices [8]. - Arbitrage: Hold cross - market positive spreads and arrange cross - period positive spreads after domestic inventory starts to decline [9]. - Options: Wait and see [10]. Alumina Market Review - Futures: The Alumina 2601 contract decreased by 8 yuan to 2,875 yuan/ton, and positions increased by 11,316 lots to 387,800 lots [11]. - Spot: Prices in different regions showed a downward trend [11]. Related Information - An electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang tendered for alumina, and the price decreased. National inventory increased, and there was a monthly supply surplus [12]. - The weighted average full cost of alumina decreased in September, and the industry's average profit decreased [13]. Logic Analysis - Supply continues to increase, resulting in an oversupply situation. Production cuts may occur in October or November, and prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [14][15]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Prices are expected to be weak [16]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [17]. - Options: Wait and see [17]. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Aluminum 2511 contract increased by 335 yuan to 21,090 yuan/ton, and positions increased by 38,408 lots to 500,500 lots [18]. - Spot: Aluminum ingot prices in different regions increased [18]. Related Information - The US government shut down, and economic data release was delayed. Domestic aluminum rod production capacity expanded, and inventory increased after the holiday [18][19]. Trading Logic - Affected by overseas monetary policy expectations, aluminum prices are expected to rise with the external market, despite short - term inventory accumulation [20][21]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Prices are expected to rise in an oscillating manner [22]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [22]. - Options: Wait and see [23]. Casting Aluminum Alloy Market Review - Futures: The Casting Aluminum Alloy 2511 contract increased by 300 yuan to 20,550 yuan/ton, and positions increased by 1,259 lots to 21,433 lots [25]. - Spot: Prices remained stable in different regions [25]. Related Information - The warehouse - receipt of aluminum alloy on the SHFE increased, and most aluminum die - casting enterprises had extended holidays [25]. Trading Logic - The high price of scrap aluminum and cost support are expected to drive the price of ADC12 spot [26]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Futures prices are expected to be relatively strong [27]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [28]. - Options: Wait and see [30]. Zinc Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Zinc 2511 increased by 1.73% to 22,315 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai Zinc Index decreased its positions by 13,700 lots to 221,200 lots [31]. - Spot: Trading was mainly among traders, and downstream enterprises had low willingness to receive goods [31]. Related Information - Domestic zinc ingot inventory increased after the holiday, and the Kipushi mine in Congo (Kinshasa) increased production [32]. Logic Analysis - Overseas de - stocking may support prices, but there is a risk of price decline if there is large - scale overseas warehousing [33]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term prices may be strong, and short positions can be lightly tested at high prices [34]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [34]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [34]. Lead Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Lead 2511 increased by 1.09% to 17,115 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai Lead Index decreased its positions by 991 lots to 71,900 lots [36]. - Spot: The market was in a wait - and - see mood, and trading was light [36][38]. Related Information - Lead ingot inventory decreased, and the resumption of a lead - zinc mine in Fujian was postponed [39]. Logic Analysis - The raw material end is in a tight balance, and the smelting end has uncertain production. Consumption is not as expected in the peak season [40]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Prices may rise in the short term but have a risk of falling back [41]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [41]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [41]. Nickel Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Nickel 2511 contract increased by 2,900 to 124,480 yuan/ton [43]. - Spot: Premiums of different brands of nickel remained stable or slightly increased [43]. Related Information - Global nickel demand and production are expected to increase in 2026. Indonesia adjusted the RKAB quota approval system, and Antam invested in a nickel project [44][46]. Logic Analysis - The nickel market has a large surplus in the next two years, and policy changes have limited impact. Prices are expected to oscillate widely [46]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Prices are expected to oscillate widely [47]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [48]. - Options: Wait and see [49]. Stainless Steel Market Review - Futures: The Stainless Steel SS2511 contract increased by 75 to 12,860 yuan/ton [51]. - Spot: Spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel were in a certain range [52]. Important Information - The EU tightened steel import policies, a South Korean buyer cancelled an order from Taiwan, and an Indian stainless steel company put a new plant into operation [53][54]. Logic Analysis - Terminal demand is differentiated, and prices are expected to oscillate widely, following the macro - sentiment and nickel prices [54]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Prices are expected to oscillate widely [55]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [56]. Tin Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Tin 2511 contract closed at 287,070 yuan/ton, up 2.99%, and positions increased by 13,345 lots to 70,056 lots [58]. - Spot: The market was inactive, and downstream replenishment willingness was low [58]. Related Information - PT Timah in Indonesia adjusted the tin sand purchase price and payment method, and the government cracked down on illegal mining [59]. Logic Analysis - The US government shutdown and Indonesian mining crackdown have limited impact on supply. The mine end is still tight, and short - term supply shows improvement signs [62]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term prices may oscillate with limited space, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar [63]. - Options: Wait and see [64]. Industrial Silicon Market Review - Futures: The Industrial Silicon 2511 contract oscillated and closed at 8,640 yuan/ton [65]. - Spot: Spot prices were at a premium to futures [66]. Related Information - Industrial silicon exports increased in August, and imports decreased [67]. Comprehensive Analysis - Affected little by the external market, with strong short - term demand, the strategy is to buy on dips [68]. Strategy - Unilateral: Buy on dips [70]. - Options: Buy out - of - the - money put options [70]. - Arbitrage: None [70]. Polysilicon Market Review - Futures: The Polysilicon 2511 contract first fell and then rose, closing at 50,765 yuan/ton, the same as the previous trading day's settlement price [72]. - Spot: Spot prices were stable [72]. Related Information - India imposed anti - dumping duties on Chinese solar cells [73]. Comprehensive Analysis - Supply - demand is bearish for the market, and the optimal strategy is to buy low after a callback [74]. Strategy - Unilateral: Buy low after a sufficient callback [75]. - Arbitrage: Reverse spread between 2511 and 2512 contracts [75]. - Options: Buy deep out - of - the - money call and put options [75]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review - Futures: The Lithium Carbonate 2511 contract increased by 200 to 73,340 yuan/ton, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts increased by 670 to 42,379 tons [76]. - Spot: Spot prices remained stable [76]. Important Information - Chile's lithium exports in September, the US terminated energy projects, a Chinese research team made a breakthrough in solid - state batteries, and a large lithium deposit was discovered in Germany [77][78]. Logic Analysis - Supply - demand is tight in October but may return to balance in November. October may be a critical turning point [79]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Prices are expected to oscillate widely [80]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [80]. - Options: Wait and see [81].