投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-06-19 化⼯产业链下游和终端跟涨不⼒，负反 馈可能将慢慢显现 伊以之间的冲突当前仍未有定论，伊朗最高领袖表示，他不会向以色 列屈服，无视美国总统唐纳德·特朗普要求该国"无条件投降"的呼吁， 令外界进一步猜测美国可能加入以色列对伊朗的袭击。17日原油价格绝对 值的上涨也有月差的同步走高，柴油裂解价差也维持强势。原油的动荡格 局可能仍将延续。 板块逻辑： 18日化工品价格大幅走高，原油上涨的带动因素较大，同时产业上也 有一些新的利多。表现在PX工厂有检修，伊朗甲醇装置有更多关停；在原 料价格上涨的过程中，我们也发现了产业链下游和终端的跟涨不力。 例如，聚酯瓶片的加工费跌至数月低点，甲醇多个下游亏损达到五年同期 最大，苯乙烯下游PS上涨乏力，等等。极端行情下，这种上下游的背离可 能还会延续，但是当前已经传递出一些信号，即原油再度上涨，化工开始 有些被动了。 原油：地缘风险加剧，油价波动放大 LPG：成本端支撑增加，PG跟随原油反弹 沥青：地缘升级，沥青地缘溢价来袭 高硫燃油：地缘升级，高硫燃油地缘溢价来袭 低硫燃油：低硫燃 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the polyolefin industry, oil price surges suppress the cost - end, profits are compressed to the lowest level of the year, and inventories are differentiated. PE is recommended for positive spreads, while PP is recommended for short - positions in the medium - term [21]. - In the methanol industry, due to geopolitical conflicts, the market has a strong long - position sentiment. Short - term strategies are recommended for positive spreads, and it is necessary to track the situation in Iran and MTO dynamics [30]. - In the PVC and caustic soda industry, caustic soda supply still exerts pressure, demand is weak, and there are inventory risks. PVC has short - term price increases but long - term supply - demand contradictions. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and take short - positions in the medium - term [32][35]. - In the urea industry, the short - term futures market is affected by rising Middle - East FOB prices and domestic factory export orders. The market is expected to be in high - level oscillations, with a bullish bias [38]. - In the styrene industry, short - term geopolitical factors drive prices up, but there is a possibility of supply - demand weakening. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and look for short - position opportunities in the medium - term [43]. - In the polyester industry, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, and bottle - chip have different supply - demand situations. Strategies vary from short - term strength to long - term supply - demand balance adjustments [47]. - In the crude oil industry, geopolitical premiums have declined, and the market is likely to continue high - level oscillations in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see on the spot side and capture volatility - narrowing opportunities on the options side [52]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Prices**: L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 closing prices all increased on June 18 compared to June 17, with increases ranging from 1.25% to 1.38% [21]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory decreased by 1.83%, and social inventory decreased by 4.56%. PP enterprise inventory increased by 4.52%, and trader inventory increased by 5.31% [21]. - **Operation Rate**: PE device operation rate increased by 2.27%, and downstream weighted operation rate decreased by 1.00%. PP device operation rate increased by 2.1%, and powder operation rate decreased by 1.3% [21]. Methanol Industry - **Prices**: MA2601 and MA2509 closing prices increased on June 18 compared to June 17, with increases of 1.83% and 2.53% respectively. Port prices increased significantly [30]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 3.10%, port inventory decreased by 10.09%, and social inventory decreased by 7.52% [30]. - **Operation Rate**: Upstream domestic enterprise operation rate increased by 0.83%, and downstream external - procurement MTO device operation rate increased by 0.85% [30]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Prices**: PVC and caustic soda futures and spot prices had different changes on June 18 compared to June 17. Caustic soda export profit increased significantly, while PVC export profit decreased [32]. - **Supply**: Caustic soda industry operation rate decreased by 2.6%, and PVC total operation rate data was unavailable. PVC external - procurement calcium carbide method profit increased by 5.5% [33]. - **Demand**: Alumina industry operation rate increased by 2.0%, and PVC downstream product operation rates generally decreased [34][35]. - **Inventory**: Caustic soda had inventory differentiation, with East China de - stocking and Shandong stocking. PVC upstream factory inventory decreased by 0.4%, and total social inventory decreased by 1.8% [35]. Urea Industry - **Prices**: Urea futures prices had different changes on June 18 compared to June 17. Spot prices in different regions also had slight fluctuations [38]. - **Supply**: Domestic urea daily output increased by 1.00%, and production factory operation rate increased by 1.00% [38]. - **Inventory**: Domestic urea factory inventory decreased by 3.49%, and port inventory remained unchanged [38]. Styrene Industry - **Raw Material Prices**: Prices of Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, CFR Northeast Asia ethylene, and CFR China pure benzene all increased on June 18 compared to June 17 [40]. - **Styrene Prices**: Styrene East China spot price and futures prices increased on June 18 compared to June 17 [41]. - **Operation Rate and Inventory**: Domestic pure benzene comprehensive operation rate increased by 2.9%, styrene operation rate increased by 2.1%. Port inventories of pure benzene and styrene decreased [43]. Polyester Industry - **Prices**: Prices of polyester products such as POY, FDY, DTY, and polyester chips increased on June 18 compared to June 17. PX, PTA, and MEG prices also had different changes [47]. - **Operation Rate**: Asian and Chinese PX operation rates, PTA operation rate, and MEG comprehensive operation rate had different changes [47]. - **Inventory**: MEG port inventory decreased, and PTA and MEG inventories had different trends [47]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices**: Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil prices had different changes on June 19 compared to June 18. Product oil prices and cracking spreads also had fluctuations [52]. - **Inventory**: EIA data showed that last week's US crude oil inventory unexpectedly decreased, far exceeding market expectations [52]. - **Market Outlook**: Geopolitical premiums have declined, and the market is expected to continue high - level oscillations in the short - term [52].

美联储在 6 月会议仍然按兵不动，鲍威尔在记者会上表示，目前美国经济形势稳固，贸易政策和财政政 策的调整仍然不确定，而加征关税可能会推高美国的价格，关税对通胀的影响可能会更加顽固，预计未 来数月将出现一定幅度的通胀压力上升。据新华社报道，多家美媒周二称，特朗普正考虑一系列选项， 包括加入以色列对伊朗的空袭。潘功胜重磅发声，涉及货币政策框架转型，首次提及稳定币，宣布设立 银行间市场交易报告库、设立数字人民币国际运营中心、设立个人征信机构等 8 项重磅金融政策。 重点品种： 原油、黄金、股指 原油： SC 夜盘上涨 3.52% 。周三，以色列和伊朗继续相互发动袭击，这两个中东大国之间的敌对行动 几乎没有缓和的迹象。特朗普 18 日在白宫就以色列与伊朗的军事冲突对媒体说，伊朗想要谈判并已表 示愿意到白宫来谈。受此影响，国际油价盘中继续上涨后回跌。美国劳工部周三公布，截止到 6 月 14 日当周，美国初请失业金人数减少 5000 人，经季节调整后为 24.5 万人 , 符合市场预期，当前的初请人 数处于今年以来的高位区间 , 且可能会持续在这一水平附近。美国能源信息署数据显示，截止到 6 月 13 日当周，包括战略储 ...

2025 年 6 月 19 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【宏观】耐用品消费转弱，美国消费显著降温——2025 年 5 月美国零售数据点评 对等关税生效前，3 月美国消费者抢先大量采购，透支未来的消费需求，导致 5 月零 售环比增速降至-0.9%。分项看，前期抢购较多的汽车、建材、家电等耐用品消费环 比增速降幅更为明显，也指向关税扰动下，美国家庭选择减少非必需品的支出。从降 息节奏看，5 月零售数据超预期转弱，增加了美联储降息紧迫性，但短期内美国的通 胀压力依然制约美联储货币政策空间，6 月美联储降息概率仍有限。 行业研究 【石化】IEA 下调原油需求预期，伊以、俄乌地缘政治冲突加剧——石化化工行业动 态跟踪第 81 期(增持) IEA 预计 2025 年全球原油需求增长 72 万桶/日，2026 年增长 74 万桶/日，25、26 年预测值较上月下调 2 万桶/日。欧盟委员会 17 日提出一项立法提案，欧盟将在 2027 年底前逐步停止进口俄罗斯的天然气和石油。油价有望在地缘政治前景的不确定性影 响下震荡上行。风险分析：地缘政治风险，上游资本开支增速不及预期，原油和天然 气价格大幅波动。 公 ...

Market Overview - The recent market volatility has left many investors confused, particularly new traders who often buy high and sell low, leading to significant losses [1] - It is advised that traders should avoid frequent operations and adhere to a strict trading plan to mitigate losses [1] Gold Market Analysis - The latest unemployment claims data from the U.S. showed a decrease of 5,000 to 245,000, aligning with market expectations, indicating a mild slowdown in the labor market [2] - The potential for continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025 is supporting gold prices, as the dollar struggles to attract strong buying interest [3] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between Israel and Iran, are contributing to bullish sentiment for gold, despite a recent pullback in prices [3] - Technically, gold has shown a strong support level at 3,365, with potential upward targets at 3,430 and 3,450, while a break above 3,450 could lead to further gains towards 3,500 [4][6] Oil Market Analysis - Oil prices have stabilized after a significant rise, with Brent crude previously increasing by 4.4% to over $76 per barrel, influenced by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [7] - The market is closely monitoring U.S. inventory data and diplomatic developments, as the stability of the Hormuz Strait is crucial for oil prices [7] - From a technical perspective, oil prices are in an upward trend, with a focus on testing resistance levels around $75.30, while support is seen at $73.5 to $72.5 [8]

行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 19 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员 ...

行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 18 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员 ...

Market Focus - The Federal Reserve is set to announce its June interest rate decision, with the "dot plot" reflecting officials' expectations for rate changes being a key focus for market participants [1] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine situation and the Israel-Iran dynamics, are influencing market volatility [2] Gold Market Analysis - Gold has experienced significant fluctuations, with a daily high of 3403 and a low of 3366, indicating a volatile trading environment [2] - The resistance level for gold has shifted from the 3403-3405 range to 3396, with further upward movement expected to face resistance at 3417-3420 and 3430-3433 [4] - Key support levels for gold are identified at 3383, 3375-3373, and 3360, with a potential downward move towards 3340 and 3320 if these levels are breached [4] Silver Market Analysis - Silver continues to rise, breaking through the 37 level, with attention on resistance at 37.5 and 38.2 for potential short positions [5] - Support levels for silver are noted at 35.5 and 34.6, indicating areas for potential long positions [5] Crude Oil Market Analysis - Crude oil is experiencing significant volatility, with recent fluctuations comparable to the past two months, driven by geopolitical factors [6] - Following a substantial drop of over 7 dollars, crude oil has shown signs of recovery, with a focus on resistance levels for potential short positions and support levels at 73.0, 69, and 71 [8]

宏观 股指 市场分析：美联储降息预期升温，美元走弱利好新兴市场风险偏好。国内经济呈现"稳中有 进"态势，消费对 GDP 增长的贡献率显著提升，科技制造投资加速，出口结构向中高端市场 倾斜，货币政策保持灵活适度，流动性充裕为市场提供支撑。 参考观点：关注 6 月 18 日陆家嘴论坛政策信号，中东局势或引发波动率放大。IH 与 IF 建 议采取中性策略，持有卖出虚值期权或轻仓多头。IC 与 IM 可布局跨期价差套利，或逢低配 置远期合约对冲波动。 原油 宏观与地缘：高度关注以伊冲突发展，是近期油价关键影响因素。目前，市场开始观望，波 动率大幅增加。 市场分析：基本面看，原油夏季旺季即将到来，同时美库存连续三周下滑，一定程度上在基 本面也支撑油价的上涨。但同时中期看，需要密切关注中东局势特别是伊朗对以色列袭击的 反击，中东局势若持续升级，则原油价格易涨难跌。多家机构预测称，若地区冲突进一步扩 大，不排除油价重新回到高油价区间。需密切关注该影响因素。同时，若该驱动逐渐淡化， 或冲突降级，原油的风险溢价也将快速回落。近期波动率将大幅增加。 参考观点：WTI 主力关注 78 美元/桶附近压力。 黄金 宏观与地缘：地缘冲突 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 6 月 18 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | | 动力煤（元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/06/17 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/16 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/13 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/12 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/11 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 950 动力煤基差 基差（右） 动力煤现货价:秦皇岛 期货结算价(活跃合约) :动力煤 www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南 ...