黄金方面： 12月23日，美国公布了第三季度GDP数据，公布值为4.3%，较前值3.8%有显著增长。然而市场认为，若剔除季度数据的异常波 动，实际GDP增长率更接近2%。这一数据表现尚可但算不上出色，加之美国失业率持续攀升，经济增长并未创造更多的就业岗 位。 针对远超预期的GDP数据，华尔街认为，未来经济可能会出现过热的情况，市场关注的焦点从经济衰退的风险，开始转移至经 济过热、通胀回升的风险。 百利好特约智昇研究投资策略师麦东认为，GDP数据公布后，黄金市场短线下行，并没有改变黄金的上升趋势；受到多方因素 影响，黄金恐将进入高位震荡。 当下原油市场的主线逻辑逐渐清晰，2026年第一季度，OPEC+没有继续增产的计划，在地缘风险的支撑下，加之美国经济逐步 向好，可能会促进油价上涨。 技术面：昨日收小阳线。1小时级别，MACD显示多方仍占据市场优势，价格在60/120日均线上方运行，市场短期上升趋势延 续。今日下方关注57.70美元的支撑，上方关注59.20美元的压力。 美元指数： 美国第三季度实际GDP数据惊艳录得4.3%，远远超出市场预期。同时，个人消费支出数据，也明显强于市场预期。受此影响， 美联储1月降 ...

光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 12 月 24 日） 光大期货能化商品日报 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二油价重心继续上移，其中 WTI 2 月合约收盘上涨 0.37 美元至 | | | | 58.38 美元/桶，涨幅 0.64%。布伦特 2 月合约收盘上涨 0.31 美元 | | | | 至 62.38 美元/桶，涨幅 0.50%。SC2602 以 442.3 元/桶收盘，上涨 | | | | 0.6 元/桶，涨幅为 0.14%。受圣诞假期影响，贝克休斯本周提前三 | | | | 天发布钻机数量报告。数据显示，截至 12 月 23 日当周，作为未 | | | | 来产量先行指标的油气钻机总数增加 3 座，至 545 座，但仍较上 | | | | 年同期减少 44 座，降幅为 7.5%。贝克休斯表示，本周美国石油钻 | | | 原油 | 机数增加 3 座，至 409 座；天然气钻井数持平于 127 座。美国商 | 震荡 | | | 务部经济分析局公布的首次预估数据显示，今年第三季度美国 | | | | GDP 环比按年率计算增长 4.3 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical tensions around Venezuela and Ukraine have caused a pulse - like "risk premium" in the oil market, but the substantial global supply tightening due to Venezuela's supply disruption is expected to be limited. Geopolitical premiums tend to provide short - term rebound momentum for oil prices [1]. - The strong GDP data in the US third - quarter initially caused a decline in precious metals, but geopolitical risks have strengthened the upward trend of precious metals, and attention should be paid to capital movements [2]. - Most commodities are in a state of complex supply - demand and market sentiment, with many showing range - bound oscillations. Some commodities are affected by geopolitical factors, while others are influenced by seasonal demand, cost changes, and policy expectations. Summaries by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical tensions drive price rebounds, but supply tightening is limited. US shale oil production remains high despite reduced drilling and fracturing activities [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil demand lacks upward drivers, and the trading focus is on supply disruptions. High - sulfur fuel oil is supported by geopolitical factors in the short - term but faces a supply - surplus situation in the medium - term. Low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be weak due to refinery device changes [19]. - **Asphalt**: Weekly shipments are at a low level, and inventories are accumulating. Geopolitical factors may provide short - term cost - side support, but the price will eventually be pressured by supply - demand looseness [20]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold has reached a new high, and geopolitical risks have strengthened the upward trend of precious metals. Attention should be paid to capital movements during the Christmas holiday [2]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The price has reached a new high. In the first quarter of next year, the market is pricing in the tight supply at the mine end in advance. There may be short - term adjustments, but the long - position demand for the first - quarter contract remains strong [3]. - **Aluminum**: The fundamentals are not prominent, and it mainly follows the upward trend of other metals. Long - positions can be held with the 40 - day moving average as support [4]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It has difficulty following the upward trend at high levels, and the price difference with Shanghai aluminum remains around 1,000 yuan [5]. - **Alumina**: The production capacity is at a historical high, the supply - surplus pattern is hard to change, and the inventory is rising [6]. - **Zinc**: The price is in a rebound trend, and it is expected to oscillate between 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [7]. - **Lead**: The price is expected to oscillate between 16,700 - 17,300 yuan/ton, and inventory pressure needs to be monitored [8]. - **Tin**: The price has declined. The supply is expected to turn around in the first quarter of 2026, and high prices are suppressing consumption. Attention should be paid to the risk at high levels [9]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is oscillating strongly due to the expected production cuts at the end of the month, but the demand is under pressure, and the upward space is limited [10]. - **Ferroalloys** - **Manganese Silicon**: The price is oscillating. Manganese ore prices have increased slightly, and it is recommended to buy on dips [16]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price is rising. Supply has decreased significantly, and demand remains resilient. It is recommended to buy on dips [17]. Building Materials - **Steel Products** - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The price has declined at night. Rebar demand has recovered slightly, and inventory is decreasing. Hot - rolled coil supply and demand are both decreasing, and inventory reduction is accelerating. The overall market is in range - bound oscillations [12]. - **Iron Ore**: The price has declined. Supply is expected to be strong, and demand is weak. The market is expected to oscillate in the short - term [13]. - **Coke**: The price is oscillating strongly. The third - round price cut has been implemented, and the price is likely to oscillate [14]. - **Coking Coal**: The price is oscillating widely. Production has decreased slightly, and the price is likely to oscillate after repairing the discount [15]. - **Glass**: The price is oscillating. Inventory is increasing, and demand is insufficient. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [30]. Chemicals - **Polyolefins** - **Polypropylene & Plastic & Propylene**: The supply is relatively abundant, and demand is weak. The market is cautious, and the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to improve in the short - term [25]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is oscillating strongly, with supply pressure easing and demand remaining low. Caustic soda is also oscillating strongly, with high supply pressure and limited demand growth [26]. - **Aromatics** - **Pure Benzene**: The price is oscillating weakly. Supply and demand pressure may ease, and it is recommended to consider long - short spreads in the medium - term [23]. - **Styrene**: Supply and demand are expected to increase, but supply may increase more than demand. The support from pure benzene is limited [24]. - **Others** - **PX & PTA**: PX prices have risen due to supply reduction expectations. PTA supply may increase, and downstream demand is expected to decline [27]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price has declined significantly. Supply is expected to increase in the long - term, and the price is under pressure [28]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle Chip**: Raw material prices are squeezing profits. Short - fiber supply - demand is relatively good in the long - term, and bottle - chip has over - capacity problems [29]. - **Urea**: The market is affected by export quota rumors, and the supply - surplus pattern continues. The price is oscillating in a range [21]. - **Methanol**: The short - term price may oscillate weakly, and there is an upward driver in the long - term. Attention should be paid to the 5 - 9 spread [22]. Agricultural Products - **Oilseeds and Oils** - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The开机率 of domestic oil mills has increased, and soybean meal inventory is expected to rise. The trading logic focuses on US soybean exports and South American weather [33]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Palm oil is rebounding, and soybean oil has declined after rising. Attention should be paid to fundamental changes [34]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic oil mill is not operating, and imports have been announced. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [35]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The price is stable and strong due to the premium in the auction [36]. - **Grains** - **Corn**: The price is slowly declining. Supply - demand mismatch has eased, and the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [37]. - **Egg**: The futures market shows a near - weak and far - strong pattern. It is recommended to consider the 2 - 4 or 2 - 5 spread strategy [39]. - **Cotton**: The price is rising. US cotton sales data is good, and domestic cotton inventory is relatively low. It is recommended to buy on dips [40]. - **Sugar**: International supply is sufficient, and domestic production progress and expectations vary by region. Attention should be paid to subsequent production [41]. - **Apple**: The price is oscillating. Demand is in the off - season, and the market is bearish [42]. - **Timber**: The price is at a low level. Supply is decreasing, demand in the off - season is okay, and inventory is low. It is recommended to wait and see [43]. - **Pulp**: The price is oscillating. Port inventory is decreasing, and the price is supported. It is recommended to wait and see or trade short - term [44]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: A - share indexes rose, and the risk appetite of equity assets has been supported. Attention should be paid to the rotation and repair opportunities of low - level sectors [45]. - **Treasury Bond**: Treasury futures rose. The long - term interest rate has risen significantly, and the yield curve is likely to steepen [46]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The spot market is in a game between strong expectations and weak reality. Near - month contracts are expected to oscillate around the spot price [18].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 原油2602： 1.基本面：美国对联合国表示，将实施与执行"最大限度的"制裁，以剥夺委内瑞拉总统马杜罗的资源， 与此同时，俄罗斯警告其他拉美国家可能成为下一个被制裁的对象；美国商务部经济分析局公布的首 次预估数据显示，今年第三季度美国国内生产总值（GDP）环比按年率计算增长4.3%，高于第二季度 3.8%的增速和市场预期；俄美两国外交官就消除两国关系中的 "障碍因素 "举行了会谈，但主要问题仍 未得到解决；中性 2.基差：12月22日，阿曼原油现货价为61.75美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为60.33美元/桶，基差 25.36元/桶，现货升水期货；偏多 3.库存：美国截至12月19日当周API原油库存增加239.1万桶，前值减少932.2万桶；美国至12月12日当 周EIA库存减少127.4万桶，预期减少106.6万桶；库欣地区库存至12月12日当周减少74.2万桶，前值增加 30.8万桶；截止至12月22日，上海原油期货库存为346.4万桶，不变；偏空 4.盘面：20日均线偏平，价格在均线附近；中性 5.主力持仓：截至12月9日，WTI原油主力持仓多单，多 ...

Group 1: Natural Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned in the report. Core View Supply - side, geopolitical tensions in Thailand and Cambodia have not eased, affecting local raw material supply, and domestic production areas are accelerating the suspension of production, so there is still support at the bottom of rubber prices. Demand - side, the resumption of work of maintenance enterprises will support overall capacity utilization, but enterprises will maintain production control in the short - term due to rising production and sales pressure. Market - side, considering the achievement of annual tasks, some agents still have moderate replenishment behavior, but it is the seasonal off - season, and actual market transactions are mainly for just - in - time needs. The market will continue to run weakly. Overall, rising port inventories and the off - season will limit the upside of rubber prices, and rubber prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 15,000 - 15,500 [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On December 23, the price of Yunnan Guofu whole - latex (SCRWF) in Shanghai increased by 50 yuan/ton to 14,850 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 0.34%. The basis of whole - latex decreased by 35 yuan/ton to - 440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.64%. Other spot prices also had corresponding changes [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 65 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30.00%. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 15 yuan/ton to 35 yuan/ton, an increase of 75.00% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, Thailand's production decreased by 1.40 to 478.60, a decrease of 0.29%; Indonesia's production decreased by 2.90 to 186.10, a decrease of 1.53%; India's production increased by 4.40 to 89.40, an increase of 5.18%; China's production decreased by 7.70 to 113.50. The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires for automobile tires decreased by 0.18 to 71.39%, and that of all - steel tires increased by 0.07 to 64.14%. In November, domestic tire production increased by 387.70 to 10,182.80 million pieces, an increase of 3.96%, and tire export volume increased by 484.00 to 5,657.00, an increase of 9.36% [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: On December 23, the bonded area inventory increased by 16,339 to 515,227 tons, an increase of 3.28%. The warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased by 605 to 58,968 tons, a decrease of 1.02% [1]. Group 2: Polyolefin Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned in the report. Core View The market is trading the situation of high production in 2026 and weak reality. Polyolefins are being short - sold with increased positions. In 2026, the polyolefin market is expected to see a decline in costs and a compression of profits, and the price center will further decline. For PP, supply increases while demand decreases, the valuation of marginal devices remains low, and inventory decreases slightly. For PE, both supply and demand are weak, some full - density devices are switching from LLDPE to HDPE production, the marginal supply of standard products is decreasing, but prices are continuously falling, there is no speculative demand in the industry chain, and inventory has increased this week [4]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Closing Price and Spread**: On December 23, the closing price of L2601 increased by 60 to 6,246 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 0.97%. The L15 spread increased by 4 to - 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.41% [4]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of East China PP raffia increased by 20 to 6,020 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 0.33%. The North China LL basis decreased by 20 to - 60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50.00% [4]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rate of PE devices decreased by 0.25 to 83.9%, a decrease of 0.30%. The weighted operating rate of PE downstream decreased by 0.55 to 42.5%, a decrease of 1.28% [4]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory increased by 1.72 to 48.8 tons, an increase of 3.65%. PP enterprise inventory decreased by 53.71 to 0.0 tons, a decrease of 100.00% [4]. Group 3: Methanol Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned in the report. Core View On December 23, methanol futures fluctuated narrowly. In the port area, although the arrival volume in December is still high, due to gas restrictions and device failures in Iran, the import volume in the far - term is expected to decrease significantly. Although there is still inventory accumulation pressure in December, the supply - demand balance sheet is expected to turn to inventory reduction in the first quarter of next year. In the inland area, the transfer price in Inner Mongolia has decreased. The supply side will maintain production due to the recovery of enterprise profits from falling coal prices. The demand side will see a slight recovery in traditional downstream operating rates and new MTO capacity put into operation. The inland supply - demand pattern is expected to stabilize, and prices will mainly fluctuate narrowly [6][7]. Summary by Directory - **Methanol Price and Spread**: On December 23, the closing price of MA2601 increased by 14 to 2,130 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 0.66%. The MA15 spread increased by 13 to - 26 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33.33% [6]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 3.83 to 39.114 tons, an increase of 10.86%. Methanol port inventory decreased by 1.56 to 121.9 tons, a decrease of 1.26% [6]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rate of domestic upstream enterprises increased by 0.99 to 77.63%, an increase of 1.29%. The operating rate of externally - purchased MTO devices increased by 1.51 to 86%, an increase of 1.79% [6]. Group 4: PX - PTA - MEG - Polyester Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned in the report. Core View - **PX**: In the short - term, without obvious negatives and with the support of geopolitics, PX may continue to be strong unless there is substantial production reduction in the polyester sector. - **PTA**: The supply - demand pattern was tight from November to December, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in the first quarter. Strategies include reducing positions on rallies, not chasing high prices, taking a long - position in the medium - term at low prices, and a positive spread for TA5 - 9 at low levels. - **MEG**: Supply is still abundant, and the supply - demand outlook is weak. It is expected to run weakly in the short - term. Strategies include a bearish spread for EG5 - 9 and holding the seller of EG2605 - C - 4100. - **Short - fiber**: Supply remains high, demand is seasonally weak, and prices are driven by raw materials. Strategies are the same as PTA, and short - fiber processing fees should be shorted on rallies [8]. Summary by Directory - **PX - related Prices and Spreads**: On December 23, the spot price of PX in RMB increased by 19 to 7,363 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 0.3%. The PX03 - PX05 spread decreased by 22 to 20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52.4% [8]. - **PTA - related Prices and Spreads**: The PTA spot price increased by 70 to 4,955 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 1.4%. The PTA05 - PTA09 spread increased by 4 to 80 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.3% [8]. - **MEG - related Prices and Spreads**: The EG2605 futures price decreased by 112 to 3,623 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.0%. The EG05 - EG09 spread decreased by 16 to - 81 yuan/ton, an increase of 24.6% [8]. - **Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: The price of polyester chips increased by 15 to 5,630 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 0.3%. The cash flow of POY150/48 increased by 7 to - 274 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.4% [8]. Group 5: Glass - Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned in the report. Core View - **Soda Ash**: Supply is stable, demand has shrunk overall, and the supply - demand pattern is bearish. Prices will continue to fluctuate downward, and it is recommended to short on rallies after the technical rebound of the futures. - **Glass**: Spot prices are under pressure, demand in the north has weakened significantly, and there are concerns about future demand. The futures market is also under pressure. The 01 contract will continue the delivery logic in December, and the 05 contract is expected to be weak before positive drivers appear [9]. Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: On December 23, the North China glass quotation decreased by 10 to 1,020 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.97%. The 01 basis of glass decreased by 17 to 82 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17.17% [9]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: The North China soda ash quotation remained unchanged at 1,300 yuan/ton. The 01 basis of soda ash decreased by 8 to 183 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.19% [9]. - **Supply and Inventory**: The operating rate of soda ash decreased by 1.91 to 82.74%. Soda ash plant inventory increased by 0.5 to 149.93 tons, an increase of 0.33% [9]. Group 6: PVC - Caustic Soda Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned in the report. Core View - **Caustic Soda**: There is still pressure on supply and demand. Although some regions have inventory reduction and downstream procurement enthusiasm, inventory levels are still high. Prices are expected to be bearish next week, especially in the East China region where supply is expected to increase. - **PVC**: The futures market is boosted by the macro - environment, but demand is weak. It is in the traditional off - season, and both domestic and export demand are poor. The supply - demand pattern is oversupplied, and price rebounds are limited [10]. Summary by Directory - **PVC and Caustic Soda Spot & Futures**: On December 23, the market price of East China calcium carbide - based PVC increased by 80 to 4,420 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 1.8%. The SH2605 futures price increased by 35 to 2,324 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 1.5% [10]. - **Caustic Soda Overseas Quotation & Export Profit**: The FOB price of East China ports remained unchanged at 370 US dollars/ton. The export profit increased by 76.2 to 251.6 US dollars/ton, an increase of 43.4% [10]. - **Supply and Demand**: The operating rate of the caustic soda industry decreased by 1.4 to 88.5%. The operating rate of PVC downstream products such as profiles decreased by 3.7 to 31.4%, a decrease of 10.5% [10]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of liquid caustic soda in East China factories decreased by 1.4 to 22.7 tons, a decrease of 5.7%. PVC total social inventory decreased by 0.7 to 51.1 tons, a decrease of 1.3% [10]. Group 7: Crude Oil Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned in the report. Core View On December 23, international crude oil continued to rise. Tensions between the US and Venezuela may escalate, and the Russia - Ukraine situation remains uncertain, which will continue to affect crude oil prices. Although inventory data has not improved, the demand for refined oil products is expected to pick up during the Western holidays. Overall, crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the range of 60 - 65 US dollars/barrel, and attention should be paid to geopolitical developments [11]. Summary by Directory - **Crude Oil Price and Spread**: On December 23, Brent crude oil increased by 0.31 to 62.38 US dollars/barrel, a growth rate of 0.50%. The Brent M1 - M3 spread increased by 0.06 to 0.84 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 7.69% [11]. - **Refined Oil Price and Spread**: The NYM RBOB price increased by 0.10 to 174.32 US cents/gallon, a growth rate of 0.06%. The RBOB M1 - M3 spread decreased by 0.34 to - 3.15 US cents/gallon, a decrease of 12.10% [11]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spread**: The US gasoline crack spread decreased by 0.33 to 14.83 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 2.16%. The US diesel crack spread increased by 0.99 to 33.63 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 3.05% [11]. Group 8: Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned in the report. Core View - **Pure Benzene**: The short - term supply - demand pattern is weak, but there is an expectation of improvement in the future. Spring maintenance plans are being introduced, and with the support of rising oil prices, the downside space is limited. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5,300 - 5,600 yuan/ton. - **Styrene**: As industry profits recover, supply has increased. But demand is weakening as downstream industries are in the off - season and losses are expanding. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival, and the upside of prices is limited. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 6,300 - 6,700 yuan/ton [13]. Summary by Directory - **Upstream Price and Spread**: On December 23, the price of Brent crude oil (February) increased by 1.91 to 62.38 US dollars/barrel, a growth rate of 3.2%. The pure benzene - naphtha spread decreased by 2 to 124 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.6% [13]. - **Styrene - related Price and Spread**: The spot price of styrene in East China decreased by 60 to 6,560 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.9%. The EB02 - EB03 spread increased by 1 to - 57 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.7% [13]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports increased by 1.3 to 27.30 tons, an increase of 5.0%. The operating rate of styrene increased by 1.0 to 69.1%, an increase of 1.5% [13]. Group 9: Urea Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned in the report. Core View Urea futures prices are rising, but spot prices are stable, and the market is mainly fulfilling previous orders. On the supply side, although the operating rate has decreased slightly due to some gas - based device shutdowns, daily production remains at a relatively high level, and supply pressure will increase after the resumption of some devices. On the demand side, agricultural demand is in the off - season, and industrial demand is weakening. Coal prices support urea prices from the cost side. In the short - term, the futures rebound is mainly driven by export expectations, and in the medium - term, the supply - demand weakness will dominate prices. Urea prices are expected to fluctuate in a range, and attention should be paid to whether the futures main contract can hold above 1,730 yuan/ton, as well as device resumption and downstream demand [14]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Closing Price and Spread**: On December 23, the 01 contract of urea futures increased by 10 to 1,649 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 0.61%. The 01 contract - 0

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 | | | | | | No. of the Real Pro- | | of the first of the results of | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 | 上证50期货 | 3025.6 | 0.24% | 0.64% | 2.25% | 1.22% | 12.98 | | | 中证500期货 | 7133.2 | 0.14% | 110% | 4.88% | -2.16% | 25.30 | | | 中证1000期货 | 7197.4 | -0.09% | 0.78% | 2.44% | -2.82% | 23.06 | | 国债 | 2年期国债期货 | 102.526 | 0.06% | 0.04% | 0.14% | 0.23% | -0.44 | | | 5年期国债期货 | 106.025 | 0.16% | 0.05% | 0.26% | 0.48% | -0.48 | | | 10年期国债期货 | 108.22 | 0.22% | 0.06% | 0.2 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-12-24 美国再次扣押油轮扰动原油市场，化⼯ 分化格局延续 国际原油期货近期延续强势，美国打压委内瑞拉原油出口是主要的利 好提振。美国已登检一艘油轮、扣押另一艘，并在委内瑞拉附近追截第三 艘，以此对马杜罗政府施压；特朗普表示，美国将保留从被扣油轮上获得 的原油。俄罗斯原油交付仍不顺畅，印度官员表示，本月俄罗斯原油进口 量将降至日均80万桶。因受到有韧性的消费者与企业支出以及更为稳定的 贸易政策支撑，美国经济在第三季度以两年来的最快速度扩张，增速高达 4.3%，这对所有风险资产都带来提振。 板块逻辑： 化工的分化仍在延续，05合约据当前较长的时限，预期无法证伪。周 二乙二醇期价再创近年新低，因供应压力持续增加。继周度乙二醇开工率 环比上升2%后，华南又有40万吨装置重启，乙二醇开工率将环比再升1. 3%，虽然油制EG生产亏损，陆续开车重启表明企业的停车积极性并不大， 叠加周初港口库存再度攀升，EG持续走弱。价格新低后我们依旧未看到产 业链有明显的利好。于此类似也有聚烯烃，PP和和PE近几日的基差仍在持 续走弱，生产企业于 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The US economy grew by 4.3% in Q3 2025, with the US API crude oil inventory rising. Market risk appetite has rebounded, and various asset classes show different trends [1][6]. - A-shares are in a narrow - range consolidation with increasing trading volume, potentially accumulating momentum for a cross - year market [23]. - The bond market is approaching a critical point, with a higher probability of short - term adjustment than direct upward movement [25]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US Q3 GDP exceeded expectations, and gold prices first declined and then rose. Gold and silver are still in an upward trend, but attention should be paid to the risks and increased volatility caused by short - term profit - taking of long positions [11]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US economy grew by 4.3% in Q3 2025. The market risk appetite has rebounded, and the US dollar will fluctuate in the short term [12][14]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US Q3 GDP growth was the fastest in two years. The market risk appetite remains high, and the US stock market is expected to be in a volatile and slightly upward trend [19][20]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - A - shares had a narrow - range consolidation with increasing trading volume on December 23. It is recommended to evenly allocate long positions in various stock indices [21][23][24]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 59.3 billion yuan, with a net withdrawal of 76 billion yuan on the day. The long - term varieties are bottom - building. It is recommended that allocation investors buy when interest rates rise, and trading investors buy at low prices and exit quickly [25][26]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal prices in the Changzhi market showed mixed trends. Currently, coking coal supply and demand are both weak. It is necessary to pay attention to downstream restocking [27][28]. 2.2 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Turkey imposed anti - dumping duties on Chinese tin - plated coils. The global crude steel output in November decreased by 4.6% year - on - year. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to adopt a volatile trading strategy [29][31][33]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - A major shareholder of Juxing Agriculture pledged 18.5 million shares. In the short and medium term, the supply pressure remains unchanged. It is recommended to short at high prices for the 03 contract and consider long positions for far - month contracts at low prices [34]. 2.4 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The trading limit of polysilicon futures contracts was adjusted. The polysilicon inventory is still accumulating, and demand is weak. It is expected that the spot price may be difficult to fall, but it depends on whether the price increase can be passed on to downstream industries. It is recommended that investors hold positions cautiously [35][36][38]. 2.5 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The designated delivery warehouse and quality inspection institution of industrial silicon futures were adjusted. The supply and demand of industrial silicon depend on the production reduction rhythm of enterprises. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices [38][41][42]. 2.6 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead had a large - scale backwardation. The supply and demand of lead are both weak, and it is recommended to trade with a volatile strategy [43]. 2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc had a backwardation. The short - term fundamentals of zinc are not highly contradictory, and it is recommended to buy on dips and hold positive spreads and conduct reverse arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets [44][45]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Exar applied for incentives for capacity expansion. The short - term sentiment is supported, but there is a callback risk after the resumption of production by large enterprises. It is recommended to go long on dips in the medium and long term [47][48]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - China's refined nickel imports in November increased significantly. Indonesia plans to reduce nickel ore production in 2026. It is recommended to go long on dips if cobalt pricing is implemented, and short at high prices if the production quota expectations are not met [49][50][52]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The LME tin had a contango. The supply of tin ore is uncertain, and demand is weak. Inventory accumulation is a short - term pressure on prices. It is necessary to be vigilant against price drops [53][54][57]. 2.11 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US API crude oil inventory increased. Oil prices rebounded due to increased market risk appetite and geopolitical risks. Short - term oil prices will be disturbed by geopolitical conflicts [58][59]. 2.12 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price rose on December 23. The short - term market risk is high [60][61]. 2.13 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - ZIM rejected the management's acquisition offer. The freight rate increase was not realized, and it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices [62][63].

Group 1: Precious Metals and Geopolitical Risks - International gold and silver futures prices have reached historical highs, driven by geopolitical tensions, particularly the U.S. seizure of a Venezuelan oil tanker, adding uncertainty to an already strained geopolitical landscape [1] - Despite the current high prices, analysts express skepticism about the sustainability of these levels, suggesting that expectations for Venezuelan safe-haven flows to push gold higher may be overly optimistic [1] Group 2: Currency and Fiscal Policies - Japanese authorities may struggle to support the yen through foreign exchange interventions unless fiscal policy risks are effectively managed, as concerns grow over potential excessive spending in the upcoming 2026 budget [2] - The U.S. dollar is expected to weaken further in 2026, with a projected decline of about 5%, as the Federal Reserve is anticipated to implement several rate cuts, contrasting with the European Central Bank's likely stable rates [3] Group 3: Automotive and Technology Investments - The approval of L3 autonomous driving models in China marks a significant step towards commercialization, highlighting investment opportunities in automotive intelligence and technology [3] - The global liquid cooling market is projected to reach $21.8 billion by 2027, driven by the increasing demand for energy-efficient data center solutions amid rising AI server power consumption [4][5] Group 4: Market Trends and Investment Strategies - The A-share market is entering a critical window for "spring excitement" as external uncertainties diminish, with a focus on technology growth sectors such as AI, commercial aerospace, and robotics [6] - The ongoing power capacity shortage in the electricity system is expected to support long-term development in energy storage solutions [7] Group 5: International Trade and Tariffs - The EU's decision to delay anti-dumping duties on Chinese semi-steel tires does not change the trend of Chinese tire manufacturers seeking stable overseas production capacity to fulfill EU orders [9] - Liquid cooling solutions are becoming increasingly important in addressing the "power shortage" issues faced by AI data centers, with significant advantages over traditional cooling methods [10][11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot - spot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logics [1]. - It presents the closing prices and weekly price changes of different asset classes including commodities, A - shares, overseas stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange as of December 19, 2025. - It summarizes the mainstream strategy views and investment logics of institutions for different commodity sectors, including both bullish and bearish factors [3][4][5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Commodities**: From December 15 to December 19, 2025, commodities like coking coal, PTA, and polysilicon had significant price increases, with coking coal rising 9.00% to 1108.00, PTA rising 5.81% to 4882.00, and polysilicon rising 5.34% to 60245.00. While some commodities such as copper, soybean meal, and corn had price drops, with copper dropping 1.05% to 93180.00, soybean meal dropping 1.26% to 2735.00, and corn dropping 1.84% to 2192.00 [2]. - **A - shares**: The Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 index dropped 0.28% to 4568.18, while the SSE 50 index rose 0.32% to 3004.34, and the CSI 500 index remained unchanged at 7169.55 [2]. - **Overseas Stocks**: The FTSE 100 index rose 2.57% to 9897.42, the French CAC40 index rose 1.03% to 8151.38, while the Hang Seng Index dropped 1.10% to 25690.53, and the Nikkei 225 index dropped 2.61% to 49507.21 [2]. - **Bonds**: The 2 - year Chinese government bond yield increased by 0.38bp to 1.39, the 5 - year yield increased by 0.24bp to 1.61, and the 10 - year yield decreased by 0.44bp to 1.83 [2]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index rose 0.32% to 98.71, the US dollar central parity rate dropped 0.12% to 7.06, and the euro - US dollar exchange rate dropped 0.28% to 1.17 [2]. 3.2 Commodity Views 3.2.1 Macro - financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 7 are neutral. Bullish factors include overseas central bank policies, increased long - term capital allocation after index correction, market attention on tech stocks, and expected policy dividends in 2026. Bearish factors are the decline in M1 growth rate, weakening policy motivation, weak economic momentum, and time - consuming policy implementation [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 7 institutions' views, 3 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 4 are neutral. Bullish factors are weak fundamentals, central bank liquidity injection, attractive 30 - year bond yields, and potential market repair. Bearish factors are low probability of short - term interest rate cuts, increased influence of trading desks, and concerns about ultra - long bond supply and demand [3]. 3.2.2 Energy - **Crude Oil**: Among 8 institutions' views, 0 are bullish, 5 are bearish, and 3 are neutral. Bullish factors are supply disruptions in Venezuela, decreased US crude and Cushing inventories, increased refinery capacity utilization in China and the US, and strong local refined oil demand. Bearish factors are limited impact of Venezuelan supply disruptions, increasing non - OPEC production, rising floating storage, and expected slowdown in major economies' demand [4]. 3.2.3 Agriculture - **Soybean Meal**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 are neutral. Bullish factors are high US soybean import costs, pre - holiday stocking demand, increased trader restocking, and signs of short - position reduction in futures. Bearish factors are the expected high - yield in South American soybeans, poor performance of domestic soybean auctions, high oil - mill soybean meal inventories, and weak feed - enterprise purchasing [4]. 3.2.4 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Among 8 institutions' views, 4 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 4 are neutral. Bullish factors are zero long - term processing fees in 2026, low spot refining fees, rising copper foil production rates, decreased domestic copper concentrate port inventories, and high market attention. Bearish factors are year - end capital shortages, increased social inventories, weak terminal demand in the off - season, and low copper rod production rates [5]. 3.2.5 Chemicals - **Glass**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 7 are neutral. Bullish factors are potential cold - repair plans in late December, low near - month valuations and high positions, and expected real - estate policy support. Bearish factors are decreased deep - processing order days, slow sales in North and East China, high inventories, and off - season pressure [5]. 3.2.6 Precious Metals - **Gold**: Among 7 institutions' views, 3 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 4 are neutral. Bullish factors are the rising US unemployment rate in November, lower - than - expected US CPI in November, increased non - commercial net long positions in gold futures, and long - term central - bank gold purchases. Bearish factors are the rapid adjustment of the gold - silver ratio, approaching key resistance levels, and market divergence on the Fed's interest - rate cut schedule [6]. 3.2.7 Black Metals - **Coking Coal**: Among 8 institutions' views, 3 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 5 are neutral. Bullish factors are the release of supply - side pressure, low valuations, production cuts by some coal mines, increased steel - mill winter - stocking demand, and improved spot - market trading. Bearish factors are high imports from Ganqimaodu Port, decreased steel - mill iron - water production, lower demand from coking plants, and increased total coking - coal inventories [6].