Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Precious Metals and Base Metals" dated November 21, 2025, covering gold, silver, copper, zinc, lead, tin, aluminum, alumina, cast aluminum alloy, nickel, and stainless steel [1]. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Gold: Expectations of interest rate cuts are rising [2]. - Silver: Undergoing a volatile adjustment [2]. - Copper: Risk sentiment remains weak, and prices are oscillating [2]. - Zinc: Subject to macro - level disturbances [2]. - Lead: Reduced inventory restricts price decline [2]. - Tin: Prices are falling from high levels [2]. - Aluminum: Affected by macro - level disturbances [2]. - Alumina: Trading within a range [2]. - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Nickel: Nickel prices have broken through support and are under pressure to move in a volatile manner [2]. - Stainless steel: Weak market realities are suppressing steel prices, but the downside is limited [2]. Summary by Commodity Gold and Silver Gold - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2512 yesterday was 932.56, with a daily decline of 0.47%. The night - session closing price was 933.90, down 0.66%. SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 4 to 1,039.43. Comex gold inventory (the day before yesterday) decreased by 255,568 to 36,969,176 troy ounces [4]. - **News**: In September, the US non - farm payrolls added 119,000 jobs, far exceeding expectations. The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4%, a four - year high [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [4]. Silver - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2512 yesterday was 12,046, down 0.81%. The night - session closing price was 11,967, down 1.34%. SLV Silver ETF holdings (the day before yesterday) increased by 20 to 15,246.63. Comex silver inventory (the day before yesterday) decreased by 3,005,099 to 462,530,023 troy ounces [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [4]. Copper - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of Shanghai Copper's main contract yesterday was 86,130, up 0.02%. The night - session closing price was 85,920, down 0.24%. Peru's copper production in September increased by 3.7% year - on - year to 240,995 tons. China's refined copper imports in October decreased by 13.62% month - on - month [8][10]. - **News**: The US non - farm payrolls in September and unemployment rate data had an impact on the market. The Dutch government suspended intervention in Nexperia [8]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [10]. Lead - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of Shanghai Lead's main contract was 17,220, down 0.17%. Shanghai Lead's futures inventory decreased by 650 tons to 30,556 tons [14]. - **News**: Similar to other commodities, affected by US employment data [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [15]. Tin - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of Shanghai Tin's main contract was 292,030, down 0.46%. The SMM 1 tin ingot price increased by 1,500 to 282,800 [18]. - **News**: Affected by macro - level news such as US employment and AI - related policies [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [20]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy Aluminum - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract was 21,530, down 40. The electrolytic aluminum enterprise's profit was 5,489.26, up 24.58 [21]. - **News**: As of the week ending November 15, the number of initial jobless claims decreased, but the number of continued claims reached a new high since October 2021. The Fed's internal hawkish - dovish divergence reappeared [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [23]. Alumina - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of Shanghai Alumina's main contract was 2,732, down 8 [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [23]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy's main contract was 20,780, down 35 [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [23]. Nickel and Stainless Steel Nickel - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 115,380, down 270. The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 895, down 3 [25]. - **News**: The Indonesian forestry working group took over a nickel mine area, and China suspended a non - official subsidy for imports of copper and nickel from Russia [25][26]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [29]. Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,285, down 50 [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 (neutral) [29].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Expectations of interest rate cuts are rising [2][4]. - Silver: Reached a new high [2][4]. - Copper: A decrease in LME inventory supports prices [2][8]. - Zinc: Trading within a range [2][11]. - Lead: An increase in domestic inventory is pressuring prices [2][14]. - Tin: Pulled back from high levels [2][17]. - Aluminum: Under short - term pressure [2][23]. - Alumina: Fundamental pressure persists [2][23]. - Cast aluminum alloy: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][23]. - Nickel: Nickel prices broke through support levels and are under pressure, moving in a volatile manner [2][26]. - Stainless steel: Weak market realities are suppressing steel prices, but there is limited downside [2][27]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Price and Trading Volume**: Yesterday, the closing prices of various gold and silver contracts showed declines, with significant drops in night - trading sessions. Trading volumes and positions of some contracts changed, and ETF holdings also had corresponding adjustments. For example, the closing price of Comex gold 2512 was 4084.40, down 2.16% [4]. - **Inventory**: Inventories of gold and silver in different markets decreased to varying degrees. For instance, Comex silver inventory (in ounces) decreased by 1,876,069 [4]. - **News**: There were important macro and industry news, such as the publication of important articles in Qiushi Journal, the convening of the State Council executive meeting, and the determination of the schedule for important US data releases [4][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold and silver trend intensities are both 1, indicating a relatively positive outlook [6]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing prices of copper contracts decreased, and trading volumes and positions also changed. For example, the closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 86,900, down 0.74% [8]. - **Inventory**: LME copper inventory decreased by 450 tons, which supported prices [8]. - **News**: There were macro and industry news, including the convening of the State Council executive meeting, the inclusion of copper in the new US critical minerals list, and the reopening of the border between Tanzania and Zambia [8][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [10]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: Zinc prices decreased, and trading volumes and positions changed. For example, the closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 22425, down 1.39% [11]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai zinc futures inventory decreased by 399 tons, while LME zinc inventory increased by 1175 tons [11]. - **News**: There were news about the schedule of important US data releases and the division within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts [12]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [13]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: Lead prices decreased, and trading volumes and positions changed. For example, the closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 17505, down 0.93% [14]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai lead futures inventory increased by 5203 tons, while LME lead inventory decreased by 1500 tons [14]. - **News**: There were news about the convening of the State Council executive meeting and the division within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [15]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: Tin prices decreased, and trading volumes and positions changed. For example, the closing price of the Shanghai tin main contract was 291,450, down 2.24% [19]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai tin inventory increased by 234 tons, and LME tin inventory increased by 10 tons [19]. - **News**: There were important macro and industry news, such as the publication of important articles in Qiushi Journal, the convening of the State Council executive meeting, and the determination of the schedule for important US data releases [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin trend intensity is 1, indicating a relatively positive outlook [22]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy prices showed different degrees of decline, and trading volumes and positions also changed. For example, the closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 21840, down 210 [23]. - **Inventory**: Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory remained unchanged, LME aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.08 million tons [23]. - **News**: There were news about the convening of the State Council executive meeting and the implementation of active fiscal policies [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy are all 0, indicating a neutral outlook [25]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: Nickel and stainless steel prices decreased, and trading volumes and positions changed. For example, the closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 117,080, down 1,850 [27]. - **Industry News**: There were news about the takeover of a nickel mine in Indonesia, the suspension of a non - official subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia, and sanctions on mining companies in Indonesia [27][28]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of nickel and stainless steel are both 0, indicating a neutral outlook [31].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongwu Securities indicates that the A-share market is entering a new bull market, with growth style leading the way and small-cap indices outperforming large-cap indices. A potential shift from "growth to value" is expected around June 2026, influenced by industry trends and liquidity conditions [1][2]. Industry Trends - The absence of blockbuster AI applications in the first half of the year, combined with liquidity pressure from a strengthening dollar in the second half, may lead to a cautious market sentiment and a mid-term adjustment for AI stocks [3]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" starting in 2026 is expected to reinforce policies centered on technological innovation and modern industrial systems, becoming a focal point for the market in the first half of the year [3]. Market Dynamics - The transition from growth to value style is closely tied to industry and liquidity turning points. A weak dollar trend may attract previously overseas capital back to the domestic market, creating a multiplier effect that supports the economy [2]. - The report anticipates that the dollar may weaken in the first half of 2026, with a potential turning point around June, as global liquidity conditions remain favorable [2]. Profitability Analysis - A rebound in overall revenue and profit growth for A-shares is expected, ending a four-year decline since 2021. This is attributed to improved supply-demand dynamics and the deepening of market reforms [4]. - The stabilization of Return on Equity (ROE) is linked to the rebalancing of supply and demand, with expectations of improved corporate profits as anti-involution policies take effect [4]. Investment Strategy - The investment strategy emphasizes "technology and security" and "reform and growth." Key areas include AI technology, resource security, and sectors benefiting from geopolitical dynamics [5][6]. - The report highlights the importance of focusing on sectors with improving supply-demand structures, such as lithium battery materials and traditional industries with price recovery potential [6][7]. Consumer Trends - There is an increasing necessity for policy support for service consumption and non-durable goods, with a focus on sectors like travel, hospitality, and essential consumer products expected to see improved sentiment in 2026 [7].

Core Viewpoint - London base metals experienced a decline across the board on November 13, with significant drops in lead, tin, and nickel prices [1] Group 1: Price Movements - LME lead fell by 0.98%, closing at $2,075.00 per ton [1] - LME tin decreased by 0.89%, ending at $37,065.00 per ton [1] - LME nickel dropped by 0.65%, settling at $14,955.00 per ton [1]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Nomura expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates in December, citing resilient employment indicators despite government shutdown impacts [1] - The firm believes that recent strong rhetoric from Fed Chair Powell supports the view that the Fed may pause rate cuts after two consecutive reductions [1] Group 2: Commodity Prices - UBS analysts indicate that gold prices are in an upward trend, with expectations for a stable period before further increases [2] - Citi forecasts copper prices to rise to an average of $12,000 per ton by Q2 2026, driven by a bullish outlook despite current weak physical demand [3] Group 3: Stock Market Predictions - Goldman Sachs predicts that U.S. stocks will underperform compared to emerging markets over the next decade, with a projected annual return of 6.5% for the S&P 500 [4] - Emerging markets are expected to yield a stronger annual return of 10.9%, driven by robust earnings growth in China and India [4] Group 4: Currency and Reserve Management - Standard Chartered notes a gradual reduction in global reserve managers' reliance on the U.S. dollar, with a shift towards a broader range of currencies [5] - The bank suggests that this diversification indicates a weakening structural demand for U.S. assets, although short-term pressure on the dollar remains limited [5] Group 5: Bond Market Insights - Deutsche Bank analysts predict that increased bond issuance in the U.S. and Europe will lead to higher risk premiums and steeper yield curves [6] - The bank forecasts that by the end of 2026, the yield on 10-year German bonds will reach 3%, while U.S. 10-year bonds will hit 4.5% [6] Group 6: Currency Outlook - ING analysts expect the dollar to decline next year due to lower hedging costs from anticipated Fed rate cuts, which may increase the hedging ratio for U.S. assets [7] - The euro is projected to rise to 1.22 by Q4 2026, supported by expectations of accelerated economic growth in the Eurozone [7] Group 7: Domestic Industry Insights - CITIC Securities highlights the competitive advantage of the domestic energy storage industry, predicting significant growth in global energy storage installations by 2025 [8] - The firm recommends focusing on leading companies in the energy storage supply chain, particularly in battery cells and system integration [8] Group 8: Pharmaceutical Sector - CITIC Securities continues to favor the pharmaceutical sector, suggesting investment in companies driven by innovation and international expansion [9] - The report emphasizes the importance of self-sufficiency in core components and the impact of new policies on the sector [9] Group 9: New Materials Sector - CITIC Securities identifies potential trading opportunities in the new materials sector, particularly in AI materials and hydrogen energy, driven by policy and performance catalysts [10] - The firm encourages active investment in high-growth industries and quality segments within the new materials space [10] Group 10: Banking Sector Performance - Galaxy Securities notes that banks are maintaining strong mid-term dividend payouts, with stable earnings supported by net interest income improvements [11] - The report highlights the positive impact of policy measures on credit structure optimization and the long-term transformation of the banking industry [11]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. It gives individual outlooks for various commodities, including bullish, bearish, and neutral views [2][5]. 2. Core Views - **Precious Metals**: Gold shows a rising trend due to increased expectations of interest rate cuts, while silver hits a new high. Both have a trend strength of 1 [2][6]. - **Base Metals**: Copper prices rise as market sentiment improves; zinc shows minor fluctuations; lead prices are supported by decreasing overseas inventories; tin prices exceed 300,000 yuan; aluminum is expected to be volatile and bullish; nickel is in a low - level oscillation due to high inventory and risks in Indonesia; stainless steel lacks upward momentum [2][10][13]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Iron ore prices decline from high levels due to inventory accumulation; coke follows the downward trend; coking coal's valuation drops due to fluctuating supply expectations; LPG has limited demand improvement and high - valued futures; PTA and p - xylene are in a high - level oscillation; MEG is bearish due to large supply pressure [2][20][38]. - **Agricultural Products**: Palm oil's rebound is limited, and there is a risk of a second dip; soybean oil spreads continue to widen; corn is short - term bullish; sugar requires attention on India's sugar - crushing situation; cotton lacks upward drivers and its price slightly drops [2][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold's Shanghai futures contract 2512 closed at 945.76 yuan with a daily decline of 0.33%, and the overnight session closed at 963.32 yuan with a 1.78% increase. Silver's Shanghai futures contract 2512 closed at 12,073 yuan with a 1.65% increase, and the overnight session closed at 12,508 yuan with a 4.81% increase. The trend strength for both is 1 [6]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The Shanghai copper main contract closed at 86,840 yuan with a 0.24% increase, and the overnight session closed at 87,430 yuan with a 0.68% increase. The trend strength is 1 [10]. - **Zinc**: The Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 22,680 yuan with a 0.02% increase. The trend strength is 0 [13]. - **Lead**: The Shanghai lead main contract closed at 17,660 yuan with a 1.26% increase. Overseas inventory reduction supports the price. The trend strength is 0 [16]. - **Tin**: The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 292,440 yuan with a 1.48% increase. The price has exceeded 300,000 yuan. The trend strength is 1 [19]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum is expected to be volatile and bullish, alumina is in a range - bound oscillation, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum. The trend strengths are 1 for aluminum, 0 for alumina, and 1 for aluminum alloy [23]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel is in a low - level oscillation due to high inventory and risks in Indonesia, and stainless steel lacks upward drivers. The trend strengths are 0 for both [25]. Energy and Chemicals - **Iron Ore**: The futures price closed at 774 yuan with a 1.44% increase. Due to inventory accumulation, the price has declined from high levels. The trend strength is 0 [38]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke follows the downward trend, and coking coal's valuation drops due to fluctuating supply expectations. The trend strengths are - 1 for both [50]. - **LPG, PTA, p - Xylene, and MEG**: LPG has limited demand improvement and high - valued futures; PTA and p - xylene are in a high - level oscillation; MEG is bearish due to large supply pressure [2][56]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: Palm oil's rebound is limited, and there is a risk of a second dip; soybean oil spreads continue to widen [5]. - **Corn, Sugar, and Cotton**: Corn is short - term bullish; sugar requires attention on India's sugar - crushing situation; cotton lacks upward drivers and its price slightly drops [2][5].

Core Viewpoint - The prices of base metals are rising due to the anticipated reopening of the U.S. federal government and expectations of further interest rate cuts this year [1] Summary by Category Price Movements - Copper futures on the London Metal Exchange increased by 1.1% to $10,959 per metric ton [1] - Aluminum futures rose by 0.8% to $2,901 per ton [1] Analyst Predictions - Analysts at Deutsche Bank raised their year-end forecast for copper from $9,600 per ton to $10,500 per ton [1] - The aluminum price forecast was adjusted from $2,600 per ton to $2,900 per ton [1] Market Commentary - The recent price increases are seen as a response to the sharp rise in prices over the past few weeks [1] - Despite the upward trend, analysts caution that the rise in copper prices may be premature given the favorable supply conditions, suggesting a potential for slight corrections in the short term [1]

Core Insights - The recent fluctuations in the commodity market, particularly oil and gold prices, are driven by various factors including supply concerns and economic indicators [1] Oil Market - WTI crude oil has seen a three-day increase, currently around $61, driven by strong refined fuel prices, concerns over potential supply issues due to U.S. sanctions on Russian energy, and technical buying as it tested the $60 mark without breaking [3] - Despite the recent price increase, concerns about oversupply remain, with upcoming OPEC and IEA reports expected to influence future price movements [3] Gold Market - Gold prices have increased but the growth rate has slowed, influenced by the potential end of the U.S. government shutdown, which reduces gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, and weak employment data indicating economic softness [4] - Morgan Stanley predicts gold prices could exceed $5,000 next year due to continued purchases by emerging market central banks, but the long-term investment rationale for gold remains strong as a hedge against inflation and uncertainty [4] Base Metals - Copper prices have risen slightly, with LME copper at approximately $10,827 per ton, influenced by a 0.2% drop in the U.S. dollar index, which typically boosts dollar-denominated metal prices [5] - The performance of base metals is closely tied to the pace of global economic recovery, which is currently unstable, leading to expected volatility in metal prices [5] Investment Strategy - For oil, investors are advised to wait for a pullback to key support levels before considering positions, especially in light of the upcoming OPEC and IEA reports [5] - In gold, a gradual accumulation strategy is recommended, particularly if economic data continues to show weakness or geopolitical tensions arise [5] - For base metals, focus should be on those linked to renewable energy and manufacturing recovery, as clearer signals of global economic recovery are needed before making long-term investments [5]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the non-ferrous metals industry and its outlook for 2026, indicating a potential bull market driven by monetary policy, demand, and supply dynamics [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve is expected to restart interest rate cuts, which, combined with a strengthening trend of de-dollarization, will enhance global liquidity and increase demand for physical assets like non-ferrous metals [1]. Demand Dynamics - The adjustment of U.S. tariff policies is reshaping global supply chains, leading to accelerated demand for non-ferrous metals, particularly from emerging industries such as AI, electricity, new energy, and high-end equipment manufacturing [1]. - The report highlights the importance of strategic resource stockpiling due to rising geopolitical risks, which is expected to further boost demand [1]. Supply Challenges - The non-ferrous mining sector is facing low supply elasticity due to insufficient capital expenditure over the past decade, which is expected to continue affecting supply [1]. - Resource-rich countries are increasingly controlling strategic minerals, adding uncertainty to supply chains [1]. Specific Metal Insights Precious Metals - A decline in real interest rates and de-dollarization are expected to drive gold prices higher, with silver also benefiting from this trend [2]. - The report anticipates strong performance for base metals like copper, aluminum, and tin due to emerging demand and supply constraints [2]. Copper - The copper market is expected to face a supply shortage, with significant disruptions from natural disasters and safety incidents affecting production [9][10]. - Demand from clean energy and global grid investments is projected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13% for copper used in clean energy from 2024 to 2026 [10]. Aluminum - The aluminum sector is poised for a bull market, driven by improving demand from traditional sectors and new energy vehicles [12][14]. - Supply constraints are expected to persist, with domestic production reaching capacity limits [12]. Tin - Tin prices are expected to rise due to increased demand from the semiconductor industry and supply disruptions from illegal mining crackdowns in Indonesia [15][23]. Cobalt - Cobalt prices are projected to remain bullish due to export quota management in the Democratic Republic of Congo and increasing demand from high-performance batteries [17][18]. Lithium - The lithium market is expected to experience a downward trend in prices due to oversupply, despite short-term demand support from seasonal peaks [19][20]. Uranium - Uranium prices are recovering due to limited supply and increased strategic interest from funds, with a focus on high-quality resources in Kazakhstan [21][22]. Tungsten - The tungsten market is characterized by tight supply and strong demand growth, particularly in manufacturing and infrastructure projects [23][25]. Rare Earth Elements - The demand for rare earth elements is expected to grow significantly due to the rise of electric vehicles and high-performance magnets, with supply constraints pushing prices higher [26][27]. Important but Overlooked Content - The report emphasizes the strategic importance of non-ferrous metals in the context of global economic shifts and the need for investors to focus on companies with strong cash flow, resource potential, and acquisition capabilities [2][11][12]. - Risks such as potential obstacles to Federal Reserve rate cuts, lower-than-expected demand, and supply disruptions are highlighted as critical factors that could impact the market [3].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the precious metals market is experiencing fluctuations, with a recommendation to hold positions and wait for the next upward wave. Gold is suggested to be bought around $3950 per ounce, as the market may face a 2-3 month adjustment period due to previous rapid price increases [3] - For copper, supply disruptions are expected to elevate price levels, with a recommendation to buy on dips as the market adjusts. The report notes a 1.80% decline in LME copper prices this week, but anticipates a tightening supply-demand situation in 2026 [4] - The aluminum sector is transitioning from peak to off-peak demand, with a reported 61.6% operating rate among domestic processing enterprises. Despite a slight decrease in demand, long-term price stability is expected due to overseas electricity supply risks [4] - Tungsten prices have seen a slight increase due to ongoing supply constraints, with a stable production forecast from key provinces [5] - Lithium prices are expected to rise due to optimistic demand forecasts driven by AI and energy storage needs, with significant growth anticipated in the coming months [5] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is at 7592.23, with a weekly high of 7807.9 and a low of 4280.14 [1] Price Movements - Basic metals saw LME copper down by 1.80%, aluminum down by 0.90%, zinc up by 0.54%, and lead up by 0.99%. Precious metals experienced a slight decline, with COMEX gold down by 0.14% and silver down by 0.05% [18] Inventory Changes - Global visible copper inventories increased by 18,668 tons, while aluminum inventories decreased by 9,448 tons. Zinc inventories rose by 1,094 tons, and lead inventories decreased by 16,342 tons [31][33]