Group 1 - The A-share market is expected to continue its spring rally in 2026, driven by policy guidance and industry trends, with a focus on technology and resource sectors [1][3] - The market sentiment is currently strong, with limited adjustment pressure, and the potential for a rebound in market indices post-Spring Festival [2][3] - The AI sector is highlighted as a key investment opportunity, with expectations for significant advancements and commercialization in 2026 [3][4] Group 2 - Resource sectors, including chemicals and precious metals, are gaining attention from institutions, particularly due to rising international prices for gold and oil [4][5] - The geopolitical situation may provide a short-term boost to oil prices, while precious metals are seen as a safe haven for investors [5][6] - The upcoming peak season for industrial production and construction in March and April is expected to validate price increases and influence market trends [6]

格隆汇2月24日｜美国总统特朗普的关税政策前景不确定性，令金融市场避险情绪升温，美股周一大幅 滑落，美元汇价受压，国际金价显著攀升，现货金价在纽约交易时段触及日内高位，一度高见每盎斯 5218.71美元，攀升2.24%。现货银价最多曾涨4%，每盎斯报88.0315美元。美元指数日内一度下挫 0.45%，低见97.36，纽约时段一度轻微倒升至97.85，最新仍跌0.2%，报97.6。 在美国最高法院推翻所谓"对等关税"后，特朗普在刚过去的周末宣布，将全球关税税率从上周五公布的 10%，立即上调至15%，他周一发出警告称，玩花招的国家将面临更高的关税，尤其是那些多年来甚至 几十年来"敲诈"美国的国家，都将面临比他们最近同意的更高关税，而且情况会更糟，他这番言论令外 界忧虑，关税前景不明朗恐将令全球贸易重新陷入混乱。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that there is a divergence in behavior between central banks and individual investors regarding gold, with central banks increasing reserves while some individuals are liquidating their holdings [2][4][10] - Central banks, including China's, have been increasing gold reserves for 15 consecutive months, with a total of 74.19 million ounces, indicating a strategic allocation rather than an emotional response [4][5] - The global trend shows that emerging market countries are the primary buyers of gold, reflecting a broader trend in reserve management rather than isolated actions by individual nations [5] Group 2 - Gold serves three main purposes for central banks: it is free from sovereign credit risk, provides liquidity in extreme conditions, and aids in diversifying reserve assets [6][7][8] - Individual investors selling gold at high prices is a rational asset management decision, as it allows for profit-taking and risk management, especially when gold constitutes a large portion of their assets [10][11] - The difference in behavior between central banks and individuals stems from their distinct objectives: individuals focus on liquidity and wealth management, while central banks prioritize stability and financial security [12][13] Group 3 - For those considering investing in gold now, it is essential to evaluate the purpose of the investment, the proportion of gold in their asset allocation, and their tolerance for price volatility [15][16][17] - Recent trends indicate that banks are moving away from promoting high-leverage gold trading, suggesting a shift towards more responsible investment practices that align with investors' risk capacities [17] - The overarching theme is that both central banks and individuals are engaged in long-term risk management and asset rebalancing, emphasizing the importance of a rational asset structure over price speculation [19]

策略研究 · 全球大类资产配置观察 海外市场有何异动？ ——全球大类资产配置观察 2026 年 2 月 22 日 核心观点 分析师 杨超 ：010-8092-7696 ：yangchao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522030004 孔玥 ：kongyue_yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130525100001 相关研究 2025-11-22，变局蕴机遇，聚势盈未来——2026 年 A 股 市场投资展望 2025-11-06，A 股三季报业绩有哪些看点？2025-10-23， 划重点：二十届四中全会公报对 A 股投资的启示 2025-10-26，布局消费主题投资机遇— "十五五"规划展 望系列 2025-08-20，反内卷中寻投资机会—— "十五五"规划展 望系列 2025-08-06，七部门剑指新型工业化，金融活水锚定新 质生产力 2025-07-31，8 月投资组合报告：政策预期+业绩护航 2025-07-31，7 月决议偏鹰，9 月降息窗口还在吗？ 2025-07-30，7 月政治局会议对 A 股市场的投资指引 2025-07- ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the recent fluctuations in global commodity markets driven by geopolitical tensions, policy changes, and economic data, particularly focusing on the impact of U.S. military actions in the Middle East and adjustments in U.S. tariff policies. Geopolitical Factors - The U.S. military presence in the Middle East, particularly the deployment of the USS Ford, is exerting pressure on Iran amid negotiations, with predictions of increased likelihood of military action by the end of March 2026 [5][18]. - The oil market has partially priced in the potential for conflict, which could lead to sharp price increases if tensions escalate, followed by a potential price drop once the situation stabilizes [6][19]. Policy Factors - The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not grant the president the authority to impose tariffs without congressional approval, affecting the legality of previously imposed tariffs [22]. - The Trump administration's response includes raising tariffs under a different legal framework, but the overall impact of these changes on the market may be limited due to existing exemptions and the temporary nature of the new tariffs [22]. Economic Data - The U.S. economy is showing signs of "stagflation," with Q4 2025 GDP growth at approximately 1.4% and core PCE inflation at 3% year-over-year, indicating economic weakness [11][23]. - The Federal Reserve's future monetary policy direction remains uncertain, influenced by the balance of dovish and hawkish members in upcoming appointments, which could lead to shifts in market expectations [12][24]. Commodity Market Performance - During the holiday period, commodities such as gold, silver, and oil saw significant price increases, with WTI crude oil rising from $62.83 to $66.31, a 5.54% increase, and Brent crude oil increasing by 5.46% [17]. - The report notes that various commodities are experiencing upward price movements, reflecting the complex interplay of geopolitical and economic factors [4][20].

Group 1 - The core narrative during the holiday period was influenced by macroeconomic factors, with precious metals driven by interest rate cut expectations and risk aversion sentiment [3][19] - Initial pressure on precious metals was due to a strong US dollar and adjustments in equity markets, but later rebounds in tech stocks and calming statements from Federal Reserve officials supported precious metal prices [3][19] - The US Supreme Court's ruling against Trump's previous tariff policies led to a weakening of the dollar, which in turn drove precious metals higher [3][19] Group 2 - Key economic data during the holiday included the US GDP growth rate of 1.4% for Q4 2025, significantly below the expected 2.5%, indicating a slowdown primarily due to government shutdowns and reduced consumer spending [4][20] - The US inflation rate remained stubborn, with the PCE price index rising to 2.9% in Q4, while the core CPI fell to 2.5%, the lowest in five years, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [4][20] - The Federal Reserve's statements regarding potential interest rate cuts were tempered by meeting minutes suggesting a willingness to consider rate hikes if inflation remains high, creating uncertainty in the interest rate path [5][21] Group 3 - Concerns over the impact of artificial intelligence on profits across various sectors led to a decline in equity markets prior to the holiday, but the market stabilized during the holiday period with tech stocks rebounding [5][21] - The Supreme Court's decision to overturn Trump's global tariffs fundamentally changed market pricing frameworks, leading to immediate increases in both stock and precious metal prices [6][22] - The geopolitical landscape remains uncertain, particularly with ongoing tensions in the Middle East and the lack of progress in US-Iran negotiations, which has implications for oil prices and market stability [7][23] Group 4 - The overall macro environment during the holiday was characterized by a lack of clear direction, influenced by narratives around interest rates, AI, geopolitical tensions, and trade tariffs, leading to volatility in the dollar and bond yields [8][24] - The market's focus on Trump's tariff narrative and its implications for pricing dynamics contributed to a stronger performance in precious metals, while the overall market remained sensitive to these narratives [8][24] - Upcoming events to watch include market reactions to the global tariff situation, Nvidia's earnings report, and statements from Federal Reserve officials, all of which could impact volatility [8][24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform" for the industry [6] Core Views - Precious Metals: The core of gold trading remains focused on hedging and stagflation, with long-term allocation value unchanged [1][12] - Industrial Metals: The expectation of interest rate cuts leads to fluctuations in industrial metal prices, with a tight supply-demand balance supporting copper prices [2][14] - New Energy Metals: Lithium carbonate prices have adjusted, and downstream inventory replenishment is sufficient, with potential for price increases if electric vehicle and energy storage sectors maintain high growth [3][19] - Other Minor Metals: The market activity for rare earth products has decreased due to the upcoming Spring Festival, with overall market performance expected to change post-holiday [4][21] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The U.S. macroeconomic data and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials have weakened market expectations for interest rate cuts, pushing the anticipated first cut from June to July [12] - Key stocks to watch include Zijin Mining, Zhongjin Lingnan, and others in both A-shares and H-shares [13] Industrial Metals - Short-term copper prices are supported by a tight supply-demand balance, while long-term expectations are bolstered by potential interest rate cuts and strong demand from the new energy sector [2][18] - Key stocks to monitor include Zijin Mining, Jiangxi Copper, and others [18] New Energy Metals - Lithium prices are expected to rise if the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors continue to grow, despite recent price adjustments [3][19] - Key stocks include Ganfeng Lithium and others in the lithium sector [20] Other Minor Metals - The rare earth market is experiencing lower inquiry activity as the Spring Festival approaches, with price fluctuations expected to increase post-holiday [4][21] - Key stocks to consider include China Rare Earth and others in the rare earth sector [24]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the strong performance of the Hong Kong stock market's non-ferrous metal sector, driven by rising prices of precious and industrial metals amid increasing global risk aversion and domestic economic recovery expectations [1][2] - International gold and silver prices are rising, supported by heightened global risk aversion, which has led to increased market attention on companies with gold resources and smelting advantages [1] - The overall non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a simultaneous increase in volume and price, becoming a standout segment in the cyclical recovery of the Hong Kong market [1] Group 2 - According to a report from Zhongyin Securities, the market is expected to enter a second phase of a bull market by 2026, characterized by profit-driven price increases, with the strong cyclical nature of non-ferrous metals likely to be fully realized [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts that central bank gold purchases and increased allocations by private investors betting on Federal Reserve rate cuts will drive gold prices to $5,400 per ounce by the end of 2026, indicating a clear long-term upward trajectory [2] - The current rally in non-ferrous metals is driven by three main factors: expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, central bank gold purchases, and increased demand for safe-haven assets, suggesting sustained upward momentum for the sector [2]

来源：每日经济新闻 马年，我们都在祝亲朋好友"马上有福"。 那么这一次，A股哪些方向有望"马上就涨"？ 本文将大致以热点板块为脉络，先结合春节假期的消息面带大家梳理。 （1）贵金属 2月22日，国际金价重新站上5100美元/盎司关口，2月23日交易时段继续逼近5200美元关口。 经过多日休整，明天（2月24日），A股即将开启农历马年行情。 截至2月13日，万得全A周K线 和过去的多个长假一样，A股休市期间，宏观、外围乃至各个行业的消息面依然爆棚。不论乐观还是悲 观，节前参与"埋伏"的资金终于盼来了开奖时刻。 | | F9 不复权 超级叠加 画线 工具 안 | 伦敦金现 | | SPTAUUSDOZ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2025/07/14-2026/02/23(159日)▼ | 5160.760 | | +49.635 +0.97% | | 5598.750-> | | IDC USD 9:48:22 | | 1 . . + | | | | | 5161.970 | | | | 5500.000 | 武 | 5160.760 | | | | | 总量 | ...

编辑：[加油] 黄金和白银价格突然出现断崖式下跌，沪银主力合约直接封死跌停，六大国有银行紧急上调了黄金投资 的门槛。 这场在28分钟内，黄金价格狂泻380美元的踩踏事故，彻底打破了市场对黄金持续上涨的疯狂幻想。算 法收割、政策反转和债务危机交织在一起，让很多投资者陷入困境。 随后，金价在不到半小时内暴跌380美元，白银价格也跟着大幅下跌。三天后，伦敦金累计下跌超过900 美元，跌到了4700美元左右；白银跌幅更严重，三天内下跌超过30%。 2月2日国内市场开盘后，沪银期货主力合约直接跌停，沪金期货跌幅超过10%，A股多只黄金相关股票 也触及跌停。 面对黄金投资里的贪婪与恐惧，我们需要认清金价剧烈波动背后的真实原因，守住普通人的资产底线。 2026年1月29日北京时间凌晨，伦敦金价涨到了5598美元/盎司，创下了历史新高。但没人想到，这个峰 值只维持了28分钟。 这个决定本身不算意外，但美联储主席鲍威尔随后的一句话，彻底改变了市场预期。他说"通胀回落速 度不及预期，不急于继续降息"，就是这句话，让市场原本期待的3月份降息彻底落空。 黄金本身是不产生利息的资产，不像债券那样能拿利息，也不像股票那样能分红。当市场利 ...