Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) regarding the inclusion of 14 new futures and options products for foreign traders marks a significant step in the opening of China's futures market, enhancing its international influence and pricing power [1][2]. Group 1: Futures Market Expansion - The CSRC has added 14 new futures and options products, increasing the total number of designated products for foreign traders to 38 [1]. - The newly included products focus on sectors where China has a strong consumption market or complete industrial chain advantages, such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and new energy materials [2]. - The inclusion of nickel futures and options is particularly noteworthy as it is the first directly open non-ferrous metal futures product, indicating a key step in the internationalization of the Shanghai Futures Exchange [2][3]. Group 2: Nickel Futures and Options - Nickel is a critical strategic material for emerging industries, and China, being the largest consumer and importer of nickel, provides a solid foundation for the futures market's opening [2]. - The opening of the nickel futures and options market is expected to enhance risk management capabilities for the non-ferrous metal industry and attract more participants for price formation and risk management [2]. Group 3: Polyester Industry Collaboration - The newly added products in the chemical sector include core polyester industry futures and options, which are essential for China's leading position in the global polyester industry [4][5]. - By 2025, China's polyester production capacity is projected to reach 89.035 million tons, accounting for 60% to 70% of the global total, indicating a robust market structure [4]. - The internationalization of the polyester sector is expected to improve the global pricing system and meet the diverse risk management needs of domestic and foreign enterprises [5]. Group 4: Lithium Carbonate Futures - The inclusion of lithium carbonate futures and options in the designated products is significant for the lithium battery industry, which is crucial for energy storage and electric vehicles [6][7]. - The introduction of these products is anticipated to provide transparent pricing and enhance China's influence in international lithium resource trade [6]. - The ability for domestic and foreign enterprises to engage in futures trading will facilitate risk management and stabilize operational profits amid price volatility [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market sentiment has warmed up, and the market is operating strongly. The pace of steel mill复产 is slow, and the high shipping volume and high inventory of iron ore still pose pressure. The pre - holiday inventory replenishment on the demand side supports the ore price. The first round of coke price increase has been implemented, and there are disturbances on the coking coal supply side, leading to a rebound in the market at a low level. In the off - season, the inventory accumulation pressure of steel products is becoming more obvious, and the fundamentals lack highlights, but there is no negative feedback expectation for the time being, and the market follows the cost to strengthen. Glass and soda ash follow the sector to strengthen, but the oversupply continues to limit the upside space of the market [1] - In general, the fundamentals in the off - season are lackluster. Before the Spring Festival, continue to pay attention to the downstream inventory replenishment intensity. At the same time, the resumption of production of steel enterprises in January is expected to further boost the inventory replenishment expectation. At that time, the furnace material prices still have the expectation of a low - level rebound. Pay attention to the disturbance of macro - policies [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - The arrival volume of iron ore has decreased, and the short - term supply pressure has eased slightly, but the inventory pressure is still increasing. The commodity sentiment is strong, and the pre - holiday inventory replenishment on the demand side supports the ore price. The supply and demand on both sides in reality still need to be verified. The scrap steel supply is stable, and the daily consumption is expected to decline seasonally. The overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, but the recent warming of the commodity market sentiment is expected to drive the spot price to follow the finished products [1] 3.2 Carbon Element - The possibility of a significant increase in coke supply is low, while the expectation of downstream steel mill复产 still exists. The coke supply - demand structure will continue to be healthy, but the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is also limited. After the spot price increase is implemented, it may remain stable for the time being, and the market is expected to follow the coking coal on the cost side. The output of domestic coal mines will gradually decline approaching the holiday, and the coking coal fundamentals will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is also limited. The spot price may remain oscillating before the Spring Festival, and the sustainability of the current warm sentiment in the market remains to be observed, and it is expected to oscillate [2] 3.3 Alloys - The manganese - silicon market continues to be in a state of loose supply and demand, and the upstream inventory reduction pressure is large. When the market rises to a high level, it may face selling pressure from hedging. The futures price of the main contract is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation. The silicon - iron market has weak supply and demand, and the fundamental driving force is limited. The low trading activity restricts the upside space of the market. It is difficult for the futures price of the main contract to maintain a high level. In the long - term, the futures price may still oscillate around the cost valuation [2] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of supply disturbances for glass, but the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is moderately high. From the perspective of fundamentals, the current supply and demand are still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise. The overall supply and demand of soda ash are still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term. In the long - term, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [2] 3.5 Specific Product Analysis 3.5.1 Steel - The cost support is strengthening, and the market is rising from a low level. The spot market trading is average. The profitability of steel mills has shrunk slightly, the molten iron output has remained stable month - on - month, and the output of the five major steel products has increased slightly. In the off - season, the demand for building materials continues to weaken seasonally, and the steel export shows a sign of a high - level decline, but the demand for hot - rolled coils still has some resilience. The inventory accumulation pressure of steel products is becoming more obvious, and the overall inventory level is still moderately high. The market is expected to oscillate widely [8] 3.5.2 Iron Ore - The molten iron output has decreased slightly month - on - month, and the downstream inventory is accumulating rapidly. Overseas mine shipping has increased, and the arrival volume has continued to weaken. The demand side has a stable rigid demand, and the steel mill inventory is increasing rapidly. The port inventory is still accumulating. The short - term supply pressure has eased slightly, and the inventory pressure is still increasing. The pre - holiday inventory replenishment on the demand side supports the ore price. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [8] 3.5.3 Scrap Steel - The arrival volume this week has decreased, and the daily consumption of electric furnaces is expected to decline seasonally. The supply of scrap steel is stable, and the daily consumption is expected to decline seasonally. The overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, but the recent warming of the commodity market sentiment is expected to drive the spot price to follow the finished products [9] 3.5.4 Coke - The first round of price increase has been implemented, and the market sentiment is warm. The supply of coke has decreased month - on - month, the demand is supported by rigid demand, and the inventory of steel mills is increasing steadily. The supply - demand structure will continue to be healthy, but the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is also limited. The spot price may remain stable after the price increase is implemented, and the market is expected to follow the coking coal on the cost side [12] 3.5.5 Coking Coal - The spot price is oscillating weakly and stably, and the market is operating strongly. The domestic supply is stable, the import volume is still high, and the inventory of upstream coal mines is being continuously digested. The fundamentals have limited changes. The spot price may remain oscillating before the Spring Festival, and the sustainability of the current warm sentiment in the market remains to be observed, and it is expected to oscillate [13] 3.5.6 Glass - The downstream is approaching the holiday, and the production and sales are weakening month - on - month. The supply may be disturbed, the demand is weak, and the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is moderately high. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [14] 3.5.7 Soda Ash - Driven by the macro - sentiment, the price is oscillating. The supply has increased slightly, the demand is weakening, and the overall supply and demand are still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term. In the long - term, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [14][17] 3.5.8 Manganese - Silicon - Driven by the macro - sentiment, the market is rising, and attention should be paid to the selling pressure at the upper level. The cost is expected to increase, the demand support is weakening, and the supply is difficult to digest the high - level inventory. The market continues to be in a state of loose supply and demand, and the upstream inventory reduction pressure is large. The futures price of the main contract is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation [17] 3.5.9 Silicon - Iron - The supply - demand driving force is limited, and it is difficult for the market to maintain a high level. The cost support still exists, the demand support is weakening, and the daily output is at a low level. The market has weak supply and demand, and the fundamental driving force is limited. It is difficult for the futures price of the main contract to maintain a high level. In the long - term, the futures price may still oscillate around the cost valuation [19]

首席点评：贵金属巨震 当地时间 1 月 29 日，美国总统特朗普表示，他将在下周公布美国联邦储备委员会下一任主席的提名人选。特 朗普当天早些时候在社交媒体上批评美联储主席鲍威尔 " 再次拒绝降息 " ，并声称美国利率应该在世界上处于 最低水平。特朗普还称，美联储下一任主席将 " 干得不错 " ，美联储目前利率 " 高得不可接受 " 。 1 月 29 日，国务院办公厅发布《加快培育服务消费新增长点工作方案》，提出聚焦交通服务、家政服务、网络视听服 务、旅居服务、汽车后市场服务、入境消费 6 个重点领域，以及演出服务，体育赛事服务，情绪式、体验式服 务 3 个潜力领域，加快培育服务消费新增长点，促进服务消费提质惠民，为经济高质量发展提供有力支撑。国 际贵金属期货普遍收涨， COMEX 黄金期货涨 1.32% 报 5410.80 美元 / 盎司， COMEX 白银期货涨 1.98% 报 115.78 美元 / 盎司。 重点品种：贵金属、原油、铝 贵金属： 贵金属一度大幅下挫，随后震荡回升。近期国际金价持续飙升并迭创历史新高，这是地缘政治格局剧 烈动荡、全球政治经济秩序动摇与流动性环境持续宽松共同作用的必然结果。今年 ...

钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 在美联储人事方面，特朗普宣布计划下周公布接替联储主席鲍威尔的人选，且他认为当前利率 应当下降 2-3 个百分点。 本次联储议息会议决定维持利率在 3.50%-3.75% 区间不变，未进行降息，货币政策表态谨慎， 符合市场预期。但投票结果中沃勒投下反对票支持降息 25bps 超市场预期鸽派，贝森特表明 将在一周左右公布新任联储主席提名，沃勒此举渴望得到特朗普的关注，会议后 Kalshi 显示 市场对沃勒被提名新任联储主席的概率预测由 8% 上升至 15%，这再度冲击美联储货币政策独 立性，叠加此前特朗普关于美元汇率的"悠悠球"言论和贝森特昨晚与之矛盾的"奉行强美元 政策"言论，美元信用再度弱化，金价表现极为强势，再创历史新高。 贵金属日报 2026-01-30 贵金属 【行情资讯】 沪金跌 1.38 %，报 1202.00 元/克，沪银涨 2.10 %，报 30358.00 元/千克；COMEX 金报 5453.00 美元/盎司，COMEX 银报 ...

2026年开年以来，金银价格一路暴涨，贵金属市场看似一片火热，实则暗流涌动。期货日报记者走访市 场发现，从下游金店到中游加工企业和贸易商，贵金属产业链中下游均陷入经营承压的困境。火热的投 资需求背后，有非法私盘伺机作乱。 金价暴涨，中下游普遍承压 "别看外面总有人排队买黄金，生意可比金价三四百元一克的时候差太多了。"一家加盟金店的店主李女 士直言，当下消费者的购买偏好彻底转变，以往受追捧的高工艺、一口价产品遇冷，大家更看重性价 比，纷纷转向克重类产品，整个市场的品牌也都跟着向克重产品倾斜。 "原料价格翻了好多倍，我们的订单量减少了大约40%。" "别看都是排队买黄金的，我们金店的利润却越来越少。" "小程序充值买黄金，我完全没意识到这是个私盘。" "现在黄金回收很火爆，很多没有资质的都在偷偷做。有不少人是因为黄金回收才了解到'杰我睿'，然 后才掉坑里的。" "以上海期货交易所、上海黄金交易所为代表的国家级正规市场，与任何声称'高收益、低门槛'的私 盘、黑平台有本质区别。"国信期货首席分析师顾冯达表示，前者是投资布局的"高速公路"，规则透 明、监管严格、资金安全；后者则是布满陷阱的"地雷阵"，随时可能血本无归。 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals Market - Gold and silver prices experienced a sharp decline after reaching high levels, with London gold dropping over 5% intraday and closing down 0.7%, while London silver fell over 8% intraday and closed down 1.11% [3][12] - Despite the recent drop, the long-term upward trend for gold prices remains intact, with expectations for further increases in the medium term, although short-term pullback risks should be monitored [3][12] - Analysts suggest that the ongoing global central bank easing cycle, led by the Federal Reserve, is likely to support gold prices, with potential for a new round of increases in the metals market around June 2026 [3][13] Group 2: Stock Market Performance - The U.S. stock market saw significant declines, with the Nasdaq Composite dropping over 2.5% at one point, and closing down 0.72%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose slightly by 0.11% [4][12] - Concerns regarding the sustainability of demand for artificial intelligence have led to a notable drop in technology stocks, with Microsoft experiencing a 12% decline [4][12] Group 3: Oil Market Dynamics - International oil prices surged, with ICE Brent crude rising nearly 4% and surpassing $70 per barrel for the first time since September of the previous year, while WTI crude closed at $65.59 per barrel [5][12] - Recent U.S. trade data indicated a significant increase in the trade deficit, which may impact economic conditions and oil demand [5][14] Group 4: Economic Indicators - The latest U.S. jobless claims data showed an increase to 209,000, slightly above expectations, indicating potential labor market challenges [5][14] - The U.S. trade deficit for November 2025 was reported at $56.8 billion, a substantial increase from the previous month, reflecting a decline in exports and an increase in imports [5][14]

每经AI快讯，1月29日，正在交易中的沪金、沪银期货夜盘出现短时大幅跳水行情，一度分别下探6%、 4%。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Core Viewpoint - The acquisition of 100% equity of Yingda Futures by Zhongyou Capital for 1.129 billion yuan marks a significant step in the collaboration between China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and State Grid Corporation of China, enhancing Zhongyou Capital's financial capabilities and aligning with the broader energy transition goals of both companies [1][2]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - Zhongyou Capital announced plans to acquire 100% equity of Yingda Futures for 1.129 billion yuan, with the transaction approved by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission [1]. - The acquisition price represents an 8.3% premium over Yingda Futures' net asset value of approximately 1.043 billion yuan as of March 2025 [1]. - The transfer of 3.79 million A-shares (3.00% of total shares) from CNPC to State Grid Yingda Group is also part of this transaction, pending regulatory approval [1]. Group 2: Strategic Implications - For State Grid Yingda, divesting the non-core asset Yingda Futures aligns with its strategy to streamline operations [2]. - The acquisition allows Zhongyou Capital to complete its financial license portfolio, enhancing its capabilities in hedging and risk management related to its core oil and gas business [2]. - Zhongyou Capital's diverse financial interests include stakes in various financial institutions, which will be bolstered by this acquisition [2]. Group 3: Industry Context - The collaboration between CNPC and State Grid has intensified since last year, with significant investments aimed at developing a new energy system [3]. - Predictions indicate that China's oil consumption may peak around 2025, prompting CNPC to transition towards a comprehensive energy supplier model that includes oil, gas, and renewable energy [3]. - CNPC aims to achieve a balanced energy portfolio by 2035, with a focus on clean energy generation exceeding 20 billion kilowatt-hours in 2025 [4].

1月29日，国际金价继续大涨。继1月26日突破每盎司5000美元后，现货与期货黄金价格一路狂飙，1月 29日早盘双双站上5500美元/盎司。 在金价拉升的过程中，公募基金领域的相关产品也迎来"黄金时刻"。黄金主题ETF规模迅速增长。然 而，在"金光灿灿"的净值曲线背后，是机构对后市判断的分歧，以及投资者"既怕卖飞又怕接盘"的复杂 心态。有投资者表示："车里的人和没上车的人都很难受"。 金价飙升下的投资群像 谁推高了金价 对于普通投资者而言，这轮行情带来的更多是煎熬。投资者小朱的经历颇具代表性："我观察黄金许久 了不敢买，现在买不进去了。太疯狂了，现在就没有上车的机会。" 这种焦虑感在踏空者中弥漫。王女士向记者坦言，去年朋友推荐黄金股时，她因谨慎未入手，如今只能 看着别人赚得"盆满钵满"。今天早上，她还在纠结是否要买入。 已持仓的投资者同样面临抉择困境。一直坚信长期主义的小刘，在本周金价突破5500美元后反而"心里 不踏实"了，他在"赶紧下车"和"怕卖飞"的焦虑中反复挣扎。 罗女士则已清仓离场。她戏称自己是"买在无人问津时，卖在人声鼎沸处"。当被问及原因时，她给出了 一个简单而深刻的回答："赚够了要去买更便宜的 ...

全球市场，正在为黄金而"沸腾"。 1月29日，世界黄金协会发布的报告显示，2025年全球黄金总需求首次突破5000吨大关，创历史新高；全球黄 金需求总值飙升至前所未有的5550亿美元，同比增长45%。 在避险情绪与资产重估浪潮的推动下，黄金正在成为全球资本市场最耀眼的资产之一，金价持续刷新纪录。当 日，黄金现货、期货价格双双站上5500美元/盎司关口，伦敦金本月涨幅高达28%。 金价的凌厉上涨，也迅速传导至终端消费市场。多家黄金珠宝品牌当日公布的足金饰品价格普遍突破1700元/ 克，再创历史新高。 突破5000吨！黄金需求创纪录 1月29日（周四），世界黄金协会发布的2025年全年《全球黄金需求趋势报告》显示，2025年全球黄金总需求 达5002吨，创历史新高。 从结构看，投资需求成为推动2025年全球黄金需求创纪录的核心力量。 报告显示，2025年全球黄金投资需求攀升至2175吨，首次站上2000吨以上的里程碑水平。其中，全球黄金ETF 全年净增持801吨，创下历史第二高年度增量。持续的地缘政治风险、全球经济不确定性以及主要经济体政策 博弈，使得大量资金涌入黄金ETF，寻求避险与资产多元化配置。 中国央行方 ...