Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas: The US December S&P Global Services PMI was 52.5, lower than the expected and previous value of 52.9, indicating a marginal decline in the US economy. The overnight market no longer followed the rate - cut logic, but the concepts of risk and stagflation continued. The US Supreme Court will rule on the tariff issue this Friday [2]. - Domestic: On Tuesday, the domestic market continued a major rebound. The broader market rose 1.5%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.4%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.75%. The brokerage sector drove up sentiment, and themes remained active. The convening of the central bank's work meeting implies that interest - rate and reserve - requirement ratio cuts are approaching, which is the main reason for the sharp rise in the financial sector. Sectors such as non - ferrous metals, non - bank finance, chemicals, military industry, and petroleum and petrochemicals led the gains, while only the communication sector declined slightly. A total of 4,101 stocks rose and 1,218 stocks fell in the entire market. Nine departments issued a document to implement a green consumption promotion action [2]. - Overall: The overnight overseas market basically continued the trend of rising US stocks and commodities. Physical assets were more in focus under geopolitical uncertainties. The domestic A - share market continued to rise sharply, achieving a record 13 - day consecutive gain. It is unlikely that the index will continue to rise in the future. The spring market should focus more on individual stocks. After an inertial rise, the index is expected to experience fluctuations. Attention can be paid to the ChiNext Index [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Important Information - Venezuela: Venezuela is negotiating with the US on exporting oil to the US. In the early days of Maduro's administration, Venezuela shipped $5.2 billion worth of gold to Switzerland. Shipping data shows that in the past five days, Venezuela's main oil terminals have only transported crude oil to Chevron in the US and not to any other destinations for export [5]. - International Relations: The UK, France, and Ukraine signed an intention statement to send troops to Ukraine after the cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The US will provide support including intelligence and logistics and "commit to support the troops if Russia launches an attack." Trump is planning a scheme to acquire Greenland, and using the US military as a vanguard is a feasible option [5][6]. - Monetary Policy: Fed Governor Milan said that more than 100 basis points of interest - rate cuts are needed in 2026. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy and strengthen supervision of various financial markets [7][10]. - Trade Policy: The G7 finance ministers will discuss key mineral issues such as the lower limit of rare - earth prices. China is considering tightening the export - license review of medium and heavy rare - earth related items listed on April 4, 2025, and the Ministry of Commerce has banned the export of all dual - use items to Japanese military users [8][9]. - A - share New Accounts: In December 2025, the number of new A - share accounts was 2.5967 million, and the cumulative number of new accounts in 2025 was 27.4369 million [11] 2. Futures Market Tracking - **Performance**: The report provides the closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, price - change percentages, basis, premium/discount rates, annualized premium/discount rates, contract delivery dates, and remaining times of various stock - index futures contracts such as the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 [13]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: It shows the trading volume, trading - volume changes, trading value, trading - value changes, open interest, open - interest changes, weekly position increases, net positions, net - position changes, short - position changes, and long - position changes of various stock - index futures contracts and their total data [14] 3. Spot Market Tracking - **Market Performance**: It presents the trading value, price - earnings ratio, year - to - date change, current points, daily change, weekly change, monthly change, average, percentile, etc. of various major indexes and sectors. For example, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.50%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.40%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.75% [38]. - **Market Style Impact**: It analyzes the impact of different market styles (cyclical, consumer, growth, financial, and stable) on major indexes such as the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 in terms of quantity, weight, daily contribution, weekly contribution, monthly contribution, and annual contribution [39][40]. - **Valuation**: It shows the current valuations and historical percentiles of major indexes and Shenwan sectors [42][45] - **Other Market Indicators**: It includes market Sunday - average trading volume, Sunday - average turnover rate, the ratio of rising to falling stocks in the two markets, index trading - value changes, stock - bond relative returns, Hong Kong Stock Connect, margin trading balance, and margin trading net purchase amount and its proportion in A - share trading value [47][49][51] 4. Liquidity Tracking - It presents data on the central bank's open - market operations (including currency injection, currency withdrawal, and net currency injection) and the Shibor interest - rate level [53][54][55]

Macro - The People's Bank of China plans to implement a moderately loose monetary policy by 2026, establishing a mechanism to provide liquidity to non-bank institutions under specific scenarios to support capital markets [1] Satellite Internet - The first commercial rocket company in China, Kegong Rocket, is set to change ownership with an overall valuation of approximately 11.2 billion yuan [2] Semiconductor - NVIDIA's BlueField-4 is expected to reconstruct the AI storage hierarchy, potentially opening up new demand for NAND [3] - NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang announced at CES that the era of "physical AI" has arrived [7] Pricing Strategies - Seagate plans to increase product prices by 10% each quarter [4] Non-ferrous Metals - China has announced a ban on all dual-use items for military purposes to Japan, affecting critical metal materials such as rare earths, tungsten, molybdenum, indium, lithium, and titanium alloys [5] Artificial Intelligence - Market discussions regarding NVIDIA's next-generation Rubin platform specifications indicate no issues with downgrading [6] Robotics - Tesla's official recruitment platform has posted job openings related to "covering materials and soft products" for the Optimus robot [8] New Energy - A meeting for the power and energy storage battery industry is scheduled for January 7 [9] - Feedback from the industry indicates extremely low inventory levels of lithium carbonate and strong demand, with two listed companies in lithium iron phosphate confirming price increases [10] - Australia has significantly increased subsidies for home battery systems [11] - The organic silicon industry plans to intensify production cuts [12] Brain-Computer Interface - The brain-computer interface "unicorn" Qiangna Technology has completed a financing round of 2 billion yuan [13] Intelligent Driving - NVIDIA has released an open-source model family for autonomous driving, aimed at addressing long-tail issues and accelerating the implementation of intelligent driving [14] Market Dynamics - Guosheng Technology and Jiamei Packaging are under suspension for verification; Fenglong Co. has issued a warning about stock fluctuations; several commercial aerospace and brain-computer interface companies have released announcements regarding stock movements [15] - In December 2025, the number of new A-share accounts opened on the Shanghai Stock Exchange increased by approximately 9% month-on-month and surged by 30.55% year-on-year [15] Strategy Observation - On Tuesday, trading volume reached 2.81 trillion yuan, with a significant increase in market sentiment; however, rapid gains and the activation of financial sectors may raise concerns about the "healthy bull" rhythm [16] - The regulatory authorities have released signals of concern through suspensions and announcements, which may provide divergence opportunities for the market, but substantial cooling requires sustained measures [16] - Sectors such as non-ferrous metals, non-bank financials, and chemicals led the gains, indicating active institutional investment [16] - The thematic sectors, particularly those related to Musk's industries (intelligent driving and robotics), performed actively; while the semiconductor sector (e.g., storage) has solid logic, it has not yet become a focal point, with potential for future attention [16] - Currently, large funds tend to operate around mainline capacity varieties [16]

Core Insights - A total of 57 companies have announced their annual performance forecasts for 2025, with 47 companies expecting profit increases, representing 82.46% of the total [1] - The overall proportion of companies forecasting positive performance is 87.72%, with 3 companies expecting profits and 3 companies expecting losses [1] - Among the companies predicting profit increases, 10 are expected to see net profit growth exceeding 100%, while 12 companies anticipate growth between 50% and 100% [1] Company Performance Highlights - The company with the highest expected net profit growth is Zhongtai Co., with a median increase of 677.22% [2] - Chuanhua Zhihui and Bai'ao Saitu are projected to have median net profit growth of 308.82% and 303.57%, ranking second and third respectively [2] - Other notable companies with significant expected profit increases include Yinglian Co. (193.27%), Tianci Materials (178.97%), and Guangku Technology (162.00%) [2] Industry and Sector Analysis - Companies expecting to double their profits are primarily concentrated in the machinery, public utilities, and steel industries, with one representative from each sector [1] - The main board, ChiNext, and STAR Market have 7, 2, and 1 companies respectively among those forecasting profit increases [1] - The average increase in stock prices for companies expecting profit doubling this year is 6.27%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [1] Stock Performance - Nanjing Xingsheng has seen the highest stock price increase this year, with a cumulative rise of 21.01% [1] - Other companies with notable stock performance include Whirlpool (12.45%) and Chuanhua Zhihui (6.71%) [1]

Group 1 - As of January 6, the margin trading balance in A-shares reached 25,799 billion yuan, an increase of 192.52 billion yuan from the previous trading day, accounting for 2.53% of the A-share circulating market value [1] - The trading volume for margin transactions on the same day was 3,289.06 billion yuan, which is an increase of 373.81 billion yuan from the previous trading day, representing 11.6% of the total A-share trading volume [1] - Among the 31 primary industries in the Shenwan index, 23 industries experienced net financing inflows, with the electronics industry leading at a net inflow of 4.398 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - A total of 74 individual stocks had net financing inflows exceeding 1 billion yuan, with Dongfang Caifu leading at a net inflow of 955 million yuan [1] - Other notable stocks with significant net financing inflows include Aerospace Electronics, Xunwei Communication, Zhongji Xuchuang, Goldwind Technology, New China Insurance, China Merchants Bank, CATL, Shenghong Technology, and TCL Technology [1] - In 2026, the application of AI in terminal devices is expected to accelerate, integrating deeply into various hardware products and industrial scenarios [2] - AI technology is anticipated to enhance traditional consumer electronics such as computers, display devices, and home appliances, while new AI hardware categories like AI glasses and AI headphones are expected to see significant breakthroughs [2] - The ongoing development of physical AI is gradually being applied in industrial, robotics, and intelligent driving scenarios [2]

Group 1 - As of January 6, the A-share margin balance reached 25,799 billion yuan, an increase of 192.52 billion yuan from the previous trading day, accounting for 2.53% of the A-share circulating market value [1] - The margin trading volume on the same day was 3,289.06 billion yuan, up by 373.81 billion yuan from the previous trading day, representing 11.6% of the total A-share trading volume [1] - Among the 31 primary industries, 23 experienced net financing inflows, with the electronics sector leading at a net inflow of 4.398 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - A total of 74 stocks had net financing inflows exceeding 1 billion yuan, with Dongfang Caifu leading at a net inflow of 955 million yuan [1] - Other notable stocks with significant net financing inflows include Aerospace Electronics, Xinwei Communication, Zhongji Xuchuang, Goldwind Technology, New China Life Insurance, China Merchants Bank, CATL, Shenghong Technology, and TCL Technology [1][2] - In 2026, the application of AI in terminal devices is expected to accelerate, integrating deeply into various hardware products and industrial scenarios [2] - AI technology is anticipated to enhance traditional consumer electronics such as computers, display devices, and home appliances, while new AI hardware categories like AI glasses and AI headphones are expected to see significant breakthroughs [2]

Group 1: Interest Rate Adjustments - The three-year fixed deposit product with an interest rate of 2.2% was officially removed on January 5, with all deposit rates decreasing by 20 basis points [1] - Multiple small and medium-sized banks, including Wuding Xingfu Village Bank and Xuwen Rural Commercial Bank, have recently announced adjustments to their deposit rates, indicating a trend of flexible management based on individual bank conditions [1] Group 2: Currency and Asset Trends - The offshore RMB exchange rate against the USD rose again on January 6, remaining above the 7 yuan mark, continuing a trend of appreciation that has lasted nearly nine months [1] - Analysts believe that the strengthening of the RMB is beneficial for foreign capital inflow, improving liquidity and risk appetite in the A-share market, with three asset categories highlighted for investment: aviation, paper manufacturing, and high-growth sectors like computing and electronics [1] Group 3: Company Performance Forecasts - Eleven companies are expected to achieve their highest net profits in the past decade by 2025, with Zijin Mining and Luxshare Precision leading with lower limits of 51 billion yuan and over 16.5 billion yuan, respectively [2] - The performance of the non-ferrous metals sector is expected to be strong due to supply constraints and structural demand growth, with companies like China Uranium Industry also anticipated to reach peak profits [2] Group 4: Lithium Carbonate Price Surge - Lithium carbonate prices have surged significantly, with a 7.74% increase on January 5 and an 8.99% increase on January 6, reaching 137,900 yuan per ton, driven by tightening supply expectations and rising demand [3] - The price increase is linked to uncertainties in lithium supply and growing demand for energy storage, with market analysts suggesting limited downside potential for lithium prices [3] Group 5: Corporate Developments - Yunnan Metallurgical Group is publicly offering a 3.18% stake in Cheng Tai Insurance for a base price of 184 million yuan, marking the third attempt to transfer this stake [6] - Four companies, including Suzhou Shangshun Technology, have initiated listing counseling as of January 6, indicating ongoing activity in the capital markets [6] Group 6: Stock Market Movements - The three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.99%, driven by AI-related demand, while the S&P 500 and Dow reached historical highs [17] - Commodity prices, particularly metals, have seen significant increases, with copper and nickel reaching record highs, reflecting strong market conditions [17]

昨日（1月6日）有色金属板块领涨两市，紫金矿业盘中总市值首次站上1万亿元大关，洛阳钼业创历史 新高，中国铝业再创15年新高，有色金属板块热门ETF——有色ETF华宝（159876）场内价格猛拉 4.21%续创历史新高！ ETF放量突破上市高点，或为资金买点信号！深交所数据显示，有色ETF华宝（159876）近5日连续获 资金净流入，合计金额9749万元，拉长时间来看，近20日狂揽1.26亿元，伴随火热的行情，资金火速进 场布局！ 值得关注的是，截至1月6日，有色ETF华宝（159876）最新规模9.56亿元，再创历史新高！ 消息面上，周二，美联储理事米兰在最新的讲话中表示，预计后续经济数据趋势可能支持美联储进一步 降息，美联储今年应降息超过100个基点。 中信建投证券认为，只要美联储还处于降息通道，有色金属价格仍有上涨动力。东方证券指出，美联储 降息周期里，供需偏紧的实物资产，即使是较小的供需缺口也有望产生较大的价格弹性。本轮降息周期 下，以铜、铝为代表的工业金属超级周期或已来临。 细分方向来看，亦有密集利好分化： 1、铝方面，中信建投证券指出，莫桑比克Mozal铝厂将于2026年3月15日转入无限期停产的消 ...

2026年01月07日 2026 年 1 月 7 日 镍：现实压力背负与周期转变叙事博弈，宽幅震荡 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：现实压力背负与周期转变叙事博弈，宽幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：现实基本面拖累，盘面博弈印尼政策为主 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：铁锂加工费提涨，市场情绪偏强 | 4 | | 工业硅：消息面扰动，盘面表现偏强 | 6 | | 多晶硅：关注今日市场消息影响 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 不锈钢：现实基本面拖累，盘面博弈印尼政策为主 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 139,800 | 5,700 | 7,410 | 16 ...

>>>>> ETF早知道 >>>>> ETF早知道 ETFEFR道 WP bao <<<< >>>>> HIFT 2026 41 目早知道 Jan ETF早知演 <<<< 市场温度计 >>>>> ETFOF CE 中长期信号 · 投资看温度 --- 75% --- 75% 75% -- + 25% -- + 25% -- > 25% ETF 早知道 <<<< 0.75% 1.5% → → 1.4% ↑ 上证指数 深证成指 创业板指 注:温度计水银条由对应指数的近十年市盈率分位数表示,总值为100%。数据来源:iFind,截至 2026.1.6,上证指数、深证成指、创业板指的近十年市盈率分位数分别为99.34%、90.41%、46.48% ETFEFAX e 0 2 6 板块热力图 ETFEFRi <<<< 短期轮动走向·观九宫热力值 +4.26% +3.12% +3.73% 基础化工 有色金庫 非银金融 +3.08% +2.89% +0.50% 综合 食品饮料 国防军工 -0.77% +0.48% +0.20% 通信 银行 EZ 相关 (4) 数据来源:iFind,截至2026.1.6,以申万一级行业区分,分 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - On January 6, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 616.8 yuan/gram, with a 6.02% increase; the palladium main contract was 471.9 yuan/gram, with a 5.16% increase [1] - Due to weak US dollar and geopolitical risks, platinum is expected to maintain a strong trend, while palladium may continue to rise due to geopolitical risks and spot shortages [1][2] - The platinum market is in a structural expansion phase, with stable demand in the automotive catalyst field, and the hydrogen energy industry is an important growth point in the future [1] - Although the long - term supply - demand of palladium tends to be loose, the short - term spot shortage makes the price firm, and the bottom of the palladium price has certain support [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Platinum Main Logic - Trump may announce the next Fed Chair candidate in January, and the future interest - rate cut path is still optimistic; the geopolitical risk has fermented again after the US military raid in Venezuela on January 3, which may further intensify price fluctuations [1] - By the close on January 6, the premium of the domestic closing time of the GFEX platinum main contract over the NYMEX platinum (tax - included) was 26.6 yuan/gram, and the internal - external price difference has significantly converged [1] - South Africa, the main supplier of platinum - group metals, still faces risks of power supply and extreme weather in the future [1] - The platinum market is in a structural expansion phase. The demand in the automotive catalyst field remains relatively stable, the hydrogen energy industry is an important future growth point, and the demand for jewelry and investment is expanding. The combination of "interest - rate cut + soft landing" will further amplify the long - term price elasticity [1] Outlook - With a healthy supply - demand fundamental and positive macro expectations, the platinum price is expected to fluctuate strongly. In the short term, the price may continue to have wide - range fluctuations, and investors should trade cautiously. They can pay attention to the opportunity of low - buying after sufficient adjustment [2] - Regarding arbitrage strategies, wait for the price difference to widen again and then continue to pay attention to the internal - external positive arbitrage opportunity; when the price difference between platinum and palladium converges, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on platinum and shorting on palladium [2] Palladium Main Logic - The geopolitical issue in Russia is the key factor affecting supply. The US Department of Commerce is investigating the import of unforged palladium from Russia, and the report is not yet released, resulting in a temporary tightening of palladium supply in other regions [2] - Palladium shows significant structural pressure in demand. Although the long - term supply - demand of palladium tends to be loose, the short - term spot shortage makes the price firm, and the Fed's re - entry into the interest - rate cut cycle provides support for the bottom of the palladium price [2] Outlook - With spot shortages and a favorable macro - environment, the palladium price is expected to fluctuate strongly. However, in the short term, the price fluctuations intensify, and investors should trade cautiously [2] - For arbitrage strategies, take profit on the internal - external positive arbitrage temporarily and participate in going long on platinum and shorting on palladium opportunistically [2] Commodity Index - The comprehensive index is not detailed. The special indices include the Commodity Index (2387.24, +2.43%), the Commodity 20 Index (2730.32, +2.47%), and the Industrial Products Index (2317.00, +2.19%) [47] Non - ferrous Metals Index - On January 6, 2026, the non - ferrous metals index was 2838.75, with a daily increase of 5.69%, a 5 - day increase of 6.06%, a 1 - month increase of 10.36%, and a year - to - date increase of 5.69% [49]