Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) has seen significant increases in industrial metal prices, with copper reaching a record high and nickel prices surging due to supply concerns [1][3]. Group 1: Price Movements - On January 6, LME three-month copper rose by $246.5, or 1.9%, closing at $13,238.0 per ton, having earlier peaked at $13,387.50, a record high [1][2]. - LME three-month nickel increased by $1,521, or 8.95%, closing at $18,524.0 per ton, with an earlier high of $18,785, the highest since June 5, 2024 [1][2]. - Other metals also saw price increases, with three-month aluminum up by $43.5 (1.41%), zinc up by $56 (1.75%), lead up by $52.5 (2.59%), and tin up by $2,060 (4.85%) [2][4]. Group 2: Supply Concerns - Copper prices have risen approximately 6.5% in 2026, driven by structural supply tightness and increased demand from electrification and data center investments [3]. - A strike at Capstone Copper's Mantoverde copper-gold mine in northern Chile has exacerbated supply concerns [3]. - The delay in the second phase of the Mirador copper mine project by China Copper has further intensified supply pressures [3]. Group 3: Market Predictions - Citigroup has raised its first-quarter copper price target from $12,000 to $14,000, while maintaining a baseline forecast of $13,000 for the remainder of the year [3]. - Analysts suggest that while current supply restrictions may boost prices in the short term, a significant surplus is expected by 2026 unless supply constraints deepen or demand improves meaningfully [4].

Core Insights - The A-share market continued its strong performance on January 6, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.5% to close at 4083.67 points, marking a new 10-year high and achieving a record 13 consecutive daily gains [1][7] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.4%, and the ChiNext Index rose by 0.75%, with total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reaching 2.81 trillion yuan [1][7] - In terms of industry performance, sectors such as non-ferrous metals, non-bank financials, and basic chemicals led the gains, while the communications sector experienced a decline [1][7] - Concept sectors like brain-computer interfaces, hyperbaric oxygen chambers, and titanium dioxide saw increases, whereas the F5G concept faced a downturn [1][7] - The Hong Kong market also saw positive movement, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.38% to 26710.45 points and the Hang Seng Tech Index up by 1.46% [1][7] - Internationally, all three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up by 0.99% to 49462.08 points, the S&P 500 rising by 0.62% to 6944.82 points, and the Nasdaq increasing by 0.65% to 23547.17 points [1][7] Important News - The People's Bank of China announced that it will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, utilizing various tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions to maintain ample liquidity [2][8] - The emotional consumption market in China is rapidly growing, with its scale expected to rise from 1.63 trillion yuan in 2022 to 2.31 trillion yuan in 2024, reaching 2.72 trillion yuan in 2025, and surpassing 4.5 trillion yuan by 2029 [2][8] - Over 90% of young people recognize "emotional value," and nearly 60% are willing to pay for it, indicating a significant shift in consumer behavior towards emotional consumption [2][8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided in the given content Core Views - The global geopolitical risk is potentially rising due to Trump's consideration of using force to seize Greenland, leading to short - term volatility in the US dollar index [1][15] - Gold prices continue to rise, and there is an increased willingness to go long on commodities. However, there are risks of short - term market fluctuations and precious metal corrections [2][12][13] - A - shares are extremely strong at the beginning of the year, and the market has entered a bullish phase. It is recommended to hold long positions in the short term [3][22][23] - The steel market is expected to continue its range - bound pattern in the short term due to insufficient accumulation of contradictions [4][29][30] - The overall market sentiment for lithium carbonate is more sensitive to bullish information, and the price is expected to remain strong, but caution is needed when chasing long positions [5][46][47] - Oil prices have fallen, with a decline in US API crude oil inventory but a significant increase in gasoline and diesel inventories [6][58][59] Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump and his team are discussing plans to acquire Greenland, and Fed official Milan expects data to support further interest rate cuts [11][12] - Gold prices continue to rise, and there is increased enthusiasm for short - term market speculation. The probability of a January interest rate cut is low, and attention should be paid to the next Fed chair selection and the adjustment of the Bloomberg commodity index weights [12] - It is recommended to be aware of the risk of precious metal corrections in the short term and consider going long on the gold - silver ratio [13] 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US will support Ukraine if it is attacked by Russia again, and Trump warns of potential impeachment if he loses the mid - term elections. Trump is considering using the military to seize Greenland [14][15] - The global geopolitical risk is potentially rising, and the US dollar index will fluctuate in the short term [15] - It is expected that the US dollar will fluctuate in the short term [16] 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Trump's government is discussing plans to acquire Greenland, and there are differences among Fed officials regarding future interest rate cuts [17][18][19] - Short - term geopolitical risks remain, and the market reaction is limited. Future Fed decisions will mainly depend on data trends [19] - It is expected that the US stock market will fluctuate strongly, and a bullish approach should be maintained [20] 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and A - shares are extremely strong at the beginning of the year [21][22] - The market has entered a bullish phase, and trading volume is the key indicator. It is recommended to hold long positions in the short term [22][23] 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank carried out a 162 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2963 billion yuan on the day [25] - The bond market is in a headwind situation, and it is recommended not to bet on oversold rebounds. Short - selling opportunities can be considered if there is a rebound [26][27] 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Handan lifted the emergency response to heavy pollution weather [28] - Steel prices are expected to continue their range - bound pattern in the short term due to insufficient accumulation of contradictions and potential pressure on finished product inventories [29] - A range - bound approach is recommended for steel prices in the short term [30] 2.2 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in the northern port market was stable with a slight upward trend on January 6 [31] - Short - term coal prices are expected to continue their weak and volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to daily consumption and pre - holiday start - up changes [31] 2.3 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - Fenix Resources' quarterly iron ore shipments reached a new high [31] - The iron ore price is expected to have strong short - term support but limited upside [32] 2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 31.12% from January 1 - 5, while production decreased by 34.48% [33][34] - There are preliminary signs of supply pressure relief, but there is still high uncertainty. It is recommended to lightly position long on the 05 contract in advance and add positions gradually after clear bullish signals [34] 2.5 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Sugar production data from different regions in China shows a mixed picture, with overall weak demand [35][36][37] - The Zhengzhou sugar futures main contract is expected to be range - bound. Attention should be paid to the start of pre - holiday stocking demand and sugar mill production and sales progress [38] 2.6 Non - Ferrous Metal (Lead) - On January 5, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $45.52 per ton [39] - Lead prices are expected to maintain a volatile and slightly bullish pattern, and it is recommended to wait and see both for single - side and arbitrage strategies [39][40] 2.7 Non - Ferrous Metal (Zinc) - On January 5, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a discount of $36.3 per ton, and Vedanta's fourth - quarter zinc concentrate production increased by 8% year - on - year [41] - Zinc prices are expected to maintain a volatile and slightly bullish pattern in the short term. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing long positions and to take partial profits on previous long positions [43][44] 2.8 Non - Ferrous Metal (Lithium Carbonate) - The first batch of price negotiations for lithium iron phosphate in the new year has landed [45] - The lithium carbonate price is expected to remain strong, but caution is needed when chasing long positions [46][47] 2.9 Non - Ferrous Metal (Copper) - Ukraine will ban the export of metal scrap starting from 2026, and Codelco's 2025 copper production increased slightly [48][49] - Macro factors support copper price increases, but short - term fundamentals are weakening. It is recommended to buy on dips for single - side trading and wait and see for arbitrage [50][51] 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metal (Nickel) - Indonesian mining companies can produce 25% of their 2026 planned output in Q1 [52] - It is recommended to pay attention to buying opportunities on dips for single - side trading and continue to hold previously recommended option strategies [54][55] 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metal (Tin) - On January 5, the LME 0 - 3 tin was at a discount of $30.01 per ton [56] - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and demand is weak. Attention should be paid to supply recovery and demand improvement, and beware of price drops due to the fading of capital enthusiasm [57][58] 2.12 Energy Chemical (Crude Oil) - US API crude oil inventory decreased, but refined product inventories increased significantly [58] - Attention should be paid to geopolitical risk disturbances [60] 2.13 Energy Chemical (Carbon Emissions) - On January 6, the CEA closing price was 74.63 yuan per ton [61] - The CEA price is expected to remain volatile [62]

Group 1 - The performance of the global commodity market is characterized by three distinct trends: oil prices are declining, nickel prices are surging, and gold is steadily increasing [3][4] - Oil prices have dropped by 2% to around $57 per barrel, as traders reassess the potential for a resolution to the Ukraine conflict, which could alleviate energy security concerns in Europe and highlight the oversupply in the oil market [3][4] - Nickel prices have surged over 10%, marking the largest single-day increase in over three years, driven by supply risks from Indonesia and strong market interest in the metal, reflecting expectations for continued growth in the electric vehicle sector [3][4] Group 2 - Gold has shown a moderate increase, remaining above $4,490 per ounce, as investors shift focus from geopolitical events to macroeconomic indicators, particularly upcoming U.S. economic data [4][5] - The current commodity market is experiencing a "logical differentiation," with oil reflecting geopolitical risk and oversupply, nickel driven by strong demand for green technologies, and gold responding to macroeconomic uncertainties [4][5] - Investors are advised to adopt targeted strategies based on their focus areas: caution in oil, opportunities in nickel, and the continued value of gold for asset allocation and risk hedging [5]

Market Performance - The overall market rose on January 6, 2026, with the CSI 500 index performing well, increasing by 2.13%. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.50%, and the Shenzhen Composite Index increased by 1.40% [1][6] - Among sectors, non-ferrous metals, non-bank financials, defense and military industry, oil and petrochemicals, and basic chemicals showed strong performance with returns of 4.25%, 3.82%, 3.30%, 2.85%, and 2.69% respectively. In contrast, communication, food and beverage, home appliances, banking, and consumer services sectors performed poorly with returns of -0.87%, 0.45%, 0.48%, 0.50%, and 0.61% respectively [1][8] - Concept themes such as stock trading software, titanium dioxide, vanadium-titanium, PTA, and rare metals performed well with returns of 9.18%, 6.09%, 6.02%, 5.81%, and 5.75% respectively, while concepts like optical modules, base stations, optical communication, Google supply chain, and Shein partners performed poorly with returns of -1.85%, -1.13%, -0.92%, -0.91%, and -0.85% respectively [1][11] Market Sentiment - Market sentiment was high on January 6, 2026, with 141 stocks hitting the daily limit up and 2 stocks hitting the limit down. Stocks that were limit up the previous day opened higher and closed with a return of 5.76%, while limit down stocks had a return of 0.26% [2][15][18] - The sealing rate was 83%, up 7% from the previous day, and the consecutive sealing rate was 41%, up 11% from the previous day, indicating a strong market sentiment and a new high for the consecutive sealing rate in nearly a month [2][20] Market Capital Flow - As of January 5, 2026, the margin trading balance was 25,606 billion yuan, with a financing balance of 25,434 billion yuan and a securities lending balance of 172 billion yuan. The margin trading balance accounted for 2.6% of the circulating market value, and margin trading accounted for 11.4% of the market transaction volume [3][25] Premium and Discount - On January 5, 2026, the bank AH preferred ETF had the highest premium at 2.19%, while the Hong Kong-Shenzhen 300 ETF had the highest discount at 1.11%. The average discount rate for block trades over the past six months was 6.66%, with a discount rate of 9.01% on that day [4][30][32] - The annualized discount rates for the main contracts of the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index futures were 0.85%, 3.79%, 11.15%, and 13.61% respectively. On January 6, 2026, the annualized premium rate for the SSE 50 index futures was 0.51%, while the CSI 300 and CSI 500 index futures had annualized discount rates of 1.41% and 1.89% respectively [4][36] Institutional Attention and Rankings - In the past week, the stocks with the most institutional research were Guangliwei, Tianyang Technology, Dingtong Technology, Liugong, Zhumi Group, Puris, Zhongke Jiangnan, and Hengyi Petrochemical, with Guangliwei being researched by 96 institutions [5][37] - On January 6, 2026, the top ten stocks with net inflow from institutional special seats included Liou Shares, Haige Communication, Daoshi Technology, and others, while the top ten stocks with net outflow included Tongyu Communication, Yingliu Shares, and others [5][41][44]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs downgraded Baosteel and China Aluminum while upgrading Yanzhou Coal and China Coal Energy [1] - ByteDance's "Doubao" AI glasses are rumored to be released, but the company clarified there are no concrete sales plans [1][3] - The market's reaction to news is often driven by underlying capital movements rather than the news itself [1][4] Group 2 - Shareholders of various companies, including Pioneer Technology and Baichuan Energy, plan to reduce their holdings by up to 3% [3] - Significant share unlocks are occurring, with Baichuan Energy's unlock amount estimated at 96.319 billion yuan, accounting for 72.20% of total shares [3] - The electric vehicle market is expected to see only a 13% growth in global sales by 2026, influenced by various regulatory changes [3] Group 3 - The perception of stock price movements can be misleading; declines may indicate institutional accumulation rather than weakness [4][9] - Data analysis reveals that stocks experiencing "capital grabbing" often show signs of future price increases [5][6] - Institutions may use price declines as opportunities to accumulate shares, contrary to public sentiment [8][10]

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market remains strong at the beginning of 2026, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a 10-year high and achieving a record 13 consecutive days of gains [1] Group 2: Sector Analysis - In January 2026, the electronic sector has the highest weight in the brokers' "golden stocks," accounting for 13.6%, followed by non-ferrous metals at 10.0%, and power equipment and basic chemicals at 9.0% and 8.0% respectively [3] - Non-ferrous metals saw the most significant increase in allocation among sectors, with a rise of 3.13% compared to December 2025 [3] - The food and beverage and media sectors experienced the largest reductions in allocation, with decreases of 2.67% and 1.95% respectively [4] Group 3: Individual Stock Recommendations - Zijin Mining (601899) is the most recommended stock in January 2026, with a total of 12 recommendations [5] - Other notable stocks include Zhongji Xuchuang (300308) with 11 recommendations and Ping An Insurance (601318) with 7 recommendations [6] - New stocks entering the recommendation list include Tianshan Aluminum (002532) and WuXi AppTec (603259), each receiving 4 recommendations [11] Group 4: Industry-Specific Highlights - In the electronics sector, the most recommended stocks are Zhongji Xuchuang and Haiguang Information, each with 3 recommendations [12] - In the non-ferrous metals sector, Zijin Mining leads with 12 recommendations, while in the power equipment sector, Ningde Times (300750) is the most recommended with 5 [12] - The basic chemicals sector's top stock is Wanhua Chemical (600309), also with 5 recommendations [12]

Core Viewpoint - The improvement in market risk appetite in December suggests a continuation of the spring market trend, with a focus on growth-oriented stocks as liquidity conditions remain favorable [1] Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market saw an increase in risk appetite, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising for eleven consecutive trading days, indicating the start of a year-end rally [1] - The central economic work conference has made positive statements regarding expanding domestic demand and stabilizing the real estate market, which is expected to improve earnings expectations for A-share listed companies [1] Group 2: Industry Performance 1) Energy and Basic Materials - Demand expectations weakened for thermal coal, leading to a price drop of 17%, while prices for coking coal and coke rose by 4% and 8% respectively [2] - Prices for various metals showed significant increases, with lithium carbonate up 26% month-on-month and 58% year-on-year, driven by supply tightness and demand expansion in high-end manufacturing [2][13] 2) Industrial Products - Domestic demand for excavators grew by 19% year-on-year, while automotive sales increased by 3%, with new energy vehicle sales rising by 21% [3] - The wind and solar power sectors saw substantial growth, with installed capacity increasing by 59% and 33% year-on-year respectively [3] 3) Consumer Products - Traditional consumer sectors are struggling, with home appliance sales declining significantly, such as washing machines and refrigerators down by 13% and 25% respectively [4] - The central economic work conference emphasized the importance of domestic demand, proposing plans to increase residents' income and optimize supply of quality goods and services [4] 4) Technology - The AI application sector continues to innovate, with significant growth in semiconductor sales, which increased by 25% globally and 15% in China year-on-year [5] - The gaming industry saw a record number of domestic game licenses issued, indicating a robust recovery in entertainment spending [5] 5) Financial Sector - Bank stocks are attracting long-term capital due to stable earnings and high dividend yields, with insurance premiums growing by 7.6% year-on-year [6] - The stock market's trading volume improved, with an average daily turnover of 1.88 trillion yuan in December [6] 6) Real Estate - Real estate sales in major cities fell by 27% year-on-year, with housing prices also declining, prompting the central government to focus on stabilizing the market and addressing risks [6] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Focus on growth sectors such as AI technology, cloud computing infrastructure, and robotics, while also considering cyclical stocks in the real estate and consumer sectors [7] - Long-term investment in high-dividend companies is recommended, as market risk appetite improves, particularly in the non-bank financial sector [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Natural Resources reports significant achievements in China's mineral exploration strategy during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a focus on key mineral types and the discovery of new large oil and gas fields [1] Group 1: Mineral Discovery Achievements - During the 14th Five-Year Plan, China discovered 10 large oil fields and 19 large gas fields, with substantial increases in uranium, copper, gold, lithium, and potassium salt resources [1] - The Dadonggou gold mine in Liaoning has a proven resource of 1,444.49 tons [1] Group 2: Future Plans and Regulations - In 2026, China will continue a new round of mineral exploration strategy actions and implement a special rectification for "circle but not explore" practices, cracking down on illegal mining of strategic mineral resources [1] - The 15th Five-Year Plan will focus on improving the coordination of exploration, production, supply, reserve, and sales of strategic mineral resources, enhancing safety risk monitoring and early warning systems [1] Group 3: Market Performance - Since the end of the New Year holiday, the non-ferrous metal sector has seen a significant rise, with the industry index increasing by 6.98% over two trading days [1] - 16 stocks, including Tianli Composite, Hunan Silver, and China Aluminum, have recorded cumulative gains of over 10% [1] - As of December 2025, the non-ferrous metal industry has seen a net financing inflow of 10.97 billion yuan, ranking fourth among all industries [1] - Major companies such as Zijin Mining, Ganfeng Lithium, Western Materials, China Uranium, Tianqi Lithium, and Xingye Silver Tin have each received net financing inflows exceeding 500 million yuan [1]

截止收盘，伦铜报13254.5美元涨167美元，涨幅1.28%；伦铝报3133.5美元涨43.5美元，涨幅1.41%；伦 锌报3245.5美元涨37.5美元，涨幅1.17%；伦铅报2071美元涨41.5美元，涨幅2.04%；伦锡报44500美元涨 1940美元，涨幅4.56%；伦镍报18430美元涨1140美元，涨幅6.59%。 长江有色网1月7日早讯：周发给晚间LME金属期货全线续涨。伦铜屡刷新高；伦镍暴涨超6%收自2024 年6月初以来最高水平。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 ...