肖宇(中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院副研究员) 在经过10月底和11月初的短暂回调后，全球黄金价格再创新高。12月23日，COMEX黄金价格突破4500 美元/盎司，相较年初上涨约70%。 分析此次黄金价格的走势，可以从长短期两个角度入手。随着美国最新非农就业数据出炉，市场普遍预 期明年美联储将会延续宽松的货币政策。而在美国国内，由于美国财政纪律受到冲击正在成为既定事 实，这放大了黄金作为终极避险资产的价值。 看涨者有充足的理由，因为从全球支付结算和储备货币角度来看，短期内美元仍将占据一定主导地位。 随着美国财政收入与支出缺口不可调和的内生矛盾逐渐被市场所定价，美债全球资产定价之锚的属性正 在丧失，购买黄金就成为了当前国际金融体系剧烈变革下为数不多的可选项。 在别人恐惧时贪婪，在别人贪婪时恐惧，经济分析史告诉我们，大宗商品价格涨跌很难有持续单一的趋 势。在市场一片看涨声中，这些"与众不同"的声音，或许值得被听见。 作为世界货币，美元在全球央行外汇储备中占比一度超过70%。截至2025年第二季度末，这一数据仍然 高达56.32%。保持本国币值和外汇储备的安全性，是各国央行的重要职责。面对债务赤字货币化的操 ...

【导读】美股震荡，黄金、白银、铜都创下了历史新高 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好，今晚继续关注海外市场表现。 货币市场下调了对2026年降息的押注：市场预计美联储在1月降息的概率只有17%。但CME"FedWatch"工具显示，市 场整体仍大体计入了到明年年底累计两次降息的预期。 黄金、白银、铜，盘中创历史新高 23日晚间，市场另一个关注点，就是大宗商品的表现。 美股震荡上涨 12月23日晚间，美股三大指数震荡微涨。 美股走势反复，美国商务部公布数据显示，美国第三季度经济增速按年化计算为4.3%，显著好于道琼斯调查经济学家预 期的3.2%。报告显示，美国经济以两年来最快速度扩张，令交易员更加相信美联储在1月将暂停本轮宽松周期。 这份报告原定于10月30日发布，但由于创纪录的美国政府停摆而延期。数据"意外强劲"可能让市场担心：美联储在 2026年初降息的可能性变小。 分析师表示："如果经济持续以这样的水平增长，就没那么需要担心经济放缓，市场的焦点反而可能重新回到'价格稳 定'这个约束上来。" 其中，黄金和白银双双大涨并刷新历史新高。现货白银一度上涨2.4%，首次突破每盎司70美元；黄金则逼近每盎司 4,500美元 ...

在地缘政治紧张局势升级、以及美国可能进一步降息的预期推动下，黄金和白银价格双双上涨，刷新历史新高。 纽约时间周二上午，现货白银一度上涨2.4%，首次突破每盎司70美元。 黄金接近每盎司4500美元，在此前录得一个多月来最大单日涨幅后继续走高。铂金和钯金价格也同步上涨。 分析称，美国总统特朗普今年早些时候采取的一系列激进措施，意在重塑全球贸易体系，同时他对美联储独立性的威胁，也为这轮牛市火上浇油。投资者还 受到所谓"货币贬值交易"的推动，即因担忧债务规模不断膨胀会侵蚀长期价值，而撤离主权债券及其计价货币。 ETF的强劲买盘是推动金价大幅上涨的主要动力之一。今年以来，全球最大贵金属ETF——道富集团旗下的SPDR Gold Trust持仓量已增长超过五分之一。 交易员押注，美联储在已经连续三次降息之后，明年还将再次降息，这将对不产生利息收益的贵金属形成利好。 此外，过去一周，地缘政治紧张局势上升也进一步强化了黄金的避险吸引力，尤其是在委内瑞拉。美国已对该国油轮实施封锁，并持续加大对总统尼古拉斯 ·马杜罗政府的施压。 媒体报道，Pepperstone Group策略师Ahmad Assiri表示，地缘政治摩擦重新回 ...

来自Citadel的Scott Rubner补充认为，市场在进入2026年时拥有稳固的宏观基础。创纪录的家庭财富、不断扩大的股权持有比例以及充裕的现金余 额，共同为市场提供了结构性支撑，使得零售投资者的参与度在更高水平上得以维持。 贵金属迎来历史性牛市 与此同时，美股市场呈现出明显的结构性分化。Pasquariello强调，当前股市的定价隐含了对经济周期性加速的预期，但这尚未在宏观经济数据中 得到普遍验证。与之形成鲜明对比的是，债券市场所反映的经济叙事则更为谨慎，股债两大市场的信号分歧已达到近年来的罕见水平。 他指出，美股市场内部六个月实现相关性持续下降，显示出极高的分散度，预计这种低相关性、高分散度的特征将在下一阶段得以延续。 2025年无疑是贵金属与工业金属市场的里程碑年份。黄金价格全年飙升68%，创下1979年以来的最佳年度表现。高盛的Tony Pasquariello分析认 为，这背后可能交织着多重叙事：既可能是对全球财政主导格局的定价，或反映了市场对法定货币体系日益增长的担忧，也可能仅是源于央行需 求的空前强劲。 高盛资深交易员Tony Pasquariello在年终回顾中指出，2025年全球大宗商 ...

这份报告原定于10月30日发布，但由于创纪录的美国政府停摆而延期。数据"意外强劲"可能让市场担 心：美联储在2026年初降息的可能性变小。 【导读】美股震荡，黄金、白银、铜都创下了历史新高 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好，今晚继续关注海外市场表现。 美股震荡上涨 12月23日晚间，美股三大指数震荡微涨。 美股走势反复，美国商务部公布数据显示，美国第三季度经济增速按年化计算为4.3%，显著好于道琼 斯调查经济学家预期的3.2%。报告显示，美国经济以两年来最快速度扩张，令交易员更加相信美联储 在1月将暂停本轮宽松周期。 今年以来金价已上涨超过三分之二，有望创下自1979年以来最佳年度表现。 分析师表示："如果经济持续以这样的水平增长，就没那么需要担心经济放缓，市场的焦点反而可能重 新回到'价格稳定'这个约束上来。" 货币市场下调了对2026年降息的押注：市场预计美联储在1月降息的概率只有17%。但 CME"FedWatch"工具显示，市场整体仍大体计入了到明年年底累计两次降息的预期。 黄金、白银、铜，盘中创历史新高 23日晚间，市场另一个关注点，就是大宗商品的表现。 其中，黄金和白银双双大涨并刷新历史新高。现货白银 ...

金价"狂飙"。 二是美元信用担忧与央行战略性购金。2022年俄罗斯外汇储备遭遇冻结后，黄金作为"非主权信用风险 资产"的储备价值凸显。在美国政府债务规模持续膨胀的背景下，全球央行基于外汇储备多元化和资产 安全性的长期战略，持续增持黄金并减少在伦敦等传统金融中心的托管规模，结构性购金潮为金价提供 了坚实支撑。 受国际金价大涨影响，国内首饰金价今日出现明显上涨。多家黄金品牌隔夜齐涨，每克上调35至36元， 部分饰品金价首破1400元/克，再刷国内纪录。 同日，上海黄金交易所发布《关于继续加强近期市场风险控制工作的通知》。公告指出，近期影响市场 不稳定的因素较多，贵金属价格波动剧烈。请各会员提高风险防范意识，要继续做好风险应急预案，维 护市场平稳运行。同时，提示投资者做好风险防范工作，合理控制仓位，理性投资。 对于本轮金价大涨，市场人士认为这是多重因素共振的结果。中安鼎盛投资合伙人陈伯仲分析指出， 2025年美国关税政策引发的避险情绪、全球央行持续增持黄金的趋势、美联储降息预期带来的流动性支 撑，以及资金对美国债务担忧的避险需求等多方面力量共同推动金价走高。 海通期货研究所顾佳男将今年贵金属市场的核心交易逻辑归纳为 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold and silver prices have reached historical highs, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions and expectations of further interest rate cuts in the U.S. [2][7] Geopolitical Factors - The recent increase in gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset is attributed to heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Venezuela, where the U.S. has intensified pressure on President Nicolás Maduro's government [2][7] - Ahmad Assiri from Pepperstone Group noted that while these developments have not triggered complete risk-off sentiment, they have certainly increased the potential demand for gold as a necessary safe-haven asset [2][7] Market Performance - Gold prices have surged by 70% this year, potentially marking the best annual performance since 1979, largely due to increased purchases by central banks and significant inflows into gold ETFs [2][8] - The world's largest precious metals ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, has seen its holdings increase by over 20% this year [8] Investor Behavior - Recent price surges have been primarily driven by retail investors rather than institutional ones, with concerns over rising debt levels leading to a sell-off of sovereign bonds and their currencies [8] - The influx of retail investor funds into gold ETFs is noted to be less sticky, suggesting continued price volatility [8] Price Trends - Gold and silver have not experienced sell-offs despite entering overbought territory, as indicated by their relative strength index (RSI) readings above 80 for gold and close to 80 for silver [9] - Current price levels of $4,500 for gold and $70 for silver are viewed as reference points rather than hard resistance levels, indicating solid support for both metals [9] Future Projections - Several banks, including Goldman Sachs, predict that gold prices will continue to rise, with a base case scenario of $4,900 per ounce by 2026, while also highlighting potential upside risks [8]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in platinum and palladium prices is attributed to a combination of macroeconomic liquidity conditions, stable industrial demand, and increased market speculation, with significant price increases observed both domestically and internationally [2][3]. Price Trends - As of December 23, domestic platinum prices reached 555 CNY per gram, and palladium prices reached 466 CNY per gram, marking year-to-date increases of 144.50% and 86.77% respectively [2]. - Internationally, platinum and palladium prices in London rose to 2083 USD per ounce and 1773 USD per ounce, reflecting year-to-date increases of 126.17% and 92.51% respectively [2]. Futures Market Development - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange launched platinum and palladium futures and options contracts on November 27, 2023, marking a significant milestone in China's risk management system for these metals [2][3]. - The trading activity of platinum and palladium futures has steadily increased since their launch, with growing open interest and active participation from physical enterprises, indicating market recognition of their pricing and hedging functions [2][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global platinum market is experiencing a structural shortage for the third consecutive year, exacerbated by supply chain disruptions and geopolitical factors, particularly affecting supply from Russia and South Africa [3]. - Forecasts indicate a 3% year-on-year reduction in platinum supply to 219 tons in 2025, primarily due to weak mining output, while palladium supply is expected to decrease by 2% to 293 tons [3]. Corporate Participation in Futures Market - Companies like Haotong Technology and Yueyang Xingchang are actively engaging in the futures market to hedge against price volatility, with Haotong being approved as a designated delivery warehouse for platinum and palladium futures [5]. - Yueyang Xingchang plans to utilize up to 10 million CNY in trading margin for hedging through futures contracts, highlighting the importance of platinum and palladium in their cost structure [5]. Risk Management and Delivery System - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has established a comprehensive delivery system for platinum and palladium futures, with a list of registered brands and warehouses to facilitate effective risk management for the industry [7][10]. - The exchange is preparing for the commencement of delivery operations in May 2026, ensuring that the necessary training and operational simulations are conducted beforehand [9][10].

黄金与白银双双再创历史新高，现货白银周二晚间历史性地站上了70美元/盎司——远远超过了每桶原 油的价格。 尽管白银此前已开启上涨态势——年内涨幅超140%——但今年两个关键触发点让其涨势驶入快车道。 现代经济的稳定性依赖于公众对货币价值的信任，这一点无论如何强调都不为过。而如今，这种信任正 逐渐动摇。虽尚未陷入危机，但各国央行已收到警告：若在金银暴涨之际仍保持自满，那么市场可能会 抛弃它们。 值得注意的是，上一次白银价格如此高于原油，还是在上世纪80年代初。随后发生的是恶性通胀、利率 飙升、市场暴跌以及经济衰退。这一未来并非注定到来，但类似的财政危机如今已成为极现实的可能。 其一，是美联储主席鲍威尔8月在杰克逊霍尔的讲话，该讲话释放出央行将转向宽松货币政策的信号； 其二，是纽约联储主席威廉姆斯11月的讲话，为美联储12月降息奠定了基础。在两人讲话间隔期间，白 银上涨25%；而在威廉姆斯讲话后的短时间内，白银又飙升40%。 本文观点来自剑桥大学的政治经济学家、约翰内斯堡高级研究所的高级研究员约翰 · 拉普利（ John Rapley ），其著作包括《帝国为何衰落：罗马、美国与西方的未来》以及《货币诸神的黄昏：作 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that after reaching the monthly target of 4018, the market is not expected to accelerate quickly but rather enter a consolidation phase to digest overheating and rebuild order through time and turnover [1] - The monthly strategy focuses on avoiding emotional trading and prioritizing discipline, with the goal of managing overheating rather than seeking continuous upward movement [1] Group 2 - The weekly analysis indicates that different indices are in varying stages of consolidation, with the Shenzhen Composite and ChiNext leading the recovery after completing their respective digestion phases, while the Shanghai Composite is in a typical topping structure [2] - The strategy for the week highlights that effective risk control is based on following structural trends rather than making predictions, allowing for fluctuations as long as key support levels are maintained [2] Group 3 - The daily analysis identifies 3918 as a critical resistance level and 3888 as a significant support level, with the market transitioning from a repair phase to a topping phase after stabilizing above 3888 [3][4] - The analysis suggests that the optimal strategy is to monitor the market's behavior around these key levels rather than chasing breakouts, focusing on maintaining strength above 3888 [4] Group 4 - The hourly analysis describes a typical healthy pullback pattern during the upward trend, confirming support levels while digesting short-term profit-taking [5] - It is noted that during strong market conditions, the focus should be on confirmation points rather than emotional trading [5] Group 5 - The rotation of market hotspots is centered around two main lines of attack, particularly in technology hardware and metals, indicating a clear trend in sector performance [6] - The strategy emphasizes understanding the rhythm of sector rotation and selectively investing in strong directions while being patient with underperforming sectors [6] Group 6 - The operational strategy advises focusing on sector trends before individual stock trends, with specific guidelines for managing positions based on moving averages [6] - The mindset should prioritize discipline and adherence to rules, emphasizing that the essence of a slow bull market is not daily gains but consistent adherence to a repeatable strategy [6]