银河有色 有色研发报告 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 2025 年 4 月 28 日星期一 | 研究所副所长、有色及贵 | 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 | | --- | --- | | 金属板块负责人：车红云 | | | 期货从业证号：F03088215 | 贵金属 | | 投资咨询号：Z0017510 | 【市场回顾】 | | | 1. 贵金属市场：上周五，贵金属回吐前日涨幅。鉴于避险情绪降温和美元坚挺 | | 研究员：王伟 | 伦敦金收跌 0.9%，报 3318.62 美元/盎司。伦敦银在 33 美元关口波动，最终收跌 | | 期货从业证号：F03143400 | 1.53%，报 33.1 元/盎司。受外盘驱动，沪金主力合约收跌 0.77%，报 785.34 元/克，沪 | | 投资咨询从业证号： Z0022141 | 银主力合约收跌 0.93%，报 8217 元/千克。 | | | 2.美元指数：美元指数横向盘整，最终收涨 0.09%，报 99.47。 | | 研究员：王露晨 CFA | 3.美债收益率：10 年期美债收益率回落，收报 4.26%。 | | 期货从业证号：F03110758 | 4.人民币汇 ...

光期研究 镍 & 不 锈 钢 月 度 策 略 报 告 2 0 2 5 年 5 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 镍&不锈钢：压力渐显 p 2 p 3 镍&不锈钢：压力渐显 总 结 1、供给：周度印尼红土镍矿1.2%下跌0.4美元/湿吨至24美元/湿吨，1.6%上涨1.5美元/吨至52.5美元/湿吨；印尼镍矿升贴水维持25美元/湿吨，菲律宾镍矿低品位矿升水 维持。一级镍，期货价格窄幅震荡，现货升水小幅下降。镍铁市场镍铁成交价格重心下移。中间品受到印尼生产受阻影响，短期供应相对偏紧，硫酸镍原料价格相对 较强，理论利润转向亏损。 2、需求：不锈钢方面，成品价格不温不火，原料价格涨跌分化；供应端，据钢联统计，本月有两家300系钢厂已进行不同程度的减产，预计影响4月产量共4万吨左右； 库存端，仓单库存环比减少11979吨至16.8万吨；全国主流市场不锈钢89仓库口径社会总库存周环比减少8481吨至107.8万吨，其中300系环比减少21476吨至701470吨； 消费端，据产业在线最新发布的三大白电排产报告显示，2024年 ...

镍不锈钢产业链周报 2025/04/28 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观 点、结论和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在 不发出通知的情形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不 能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许 可，任何机构或个人不得以翻版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东 亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追 ...

Core Insights - Ningde City is focusing on maintaining strong development momentum by enhancing its "432" industrial system, which includes four major industries and three emerging products, while also planning for future industries [2][5] Group 1: Industrial Development - The "432" industrial system consists of four main industries: lithium battery new energy, new energy vehicles, stainless steel new materials, and copper materials, along with three emerging products: electric health care, electric ships, and electric aviation [2] - In the first quarter, Ningde's GDP grew by 6.7% year-on-year, ranking first in Fujian Province, while the industrial added value increased by 10%, also leading among Fujian's cities [2][6] Group 2: Economic Performance - The four major industries in Ningde achieved an output value of 1,404 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 13.15%, supporting the city's economic foundation [6] - The county of Pingnan has seen significant growth, with companies like Pingnan Times New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. and Pingnan Times Electronics Co., Ltd. reporting over 120% growth in output value, contributing to a 33.9% increase in industrial output [5] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - Ningde City is implementing a strategy of developing industrial clusters around leading enterprises, such as Ningde Times and Qingtou Group, to attract upstream and downstream companies in the lithium battery and stainless steel sectors [5] - The city aims to enhance project construction efforts to achieve its annual goals and contribute to the overall economic development of the region [6]

2025年04月27日 国泰君安期货研究周报-绿色金融与新能源 | 观点与策略 | | --- | | 镍：上下方空间收敛，镍价或窄幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：现货补跌修基差，成本与负反馈盘面博弈 | 2 | | 工业硅：下游减产，现货弱势，盘面亦偏弱 | 11 | | 多晶硅：现货价格下跌，盘面继续回落 | 11 | | 碳酸锂：需求疲软，挤压上游利润，偏弱震荡 | 21 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 4 月 27 日 镍：上下方空间收敛，镍价或窄幅震荡 不锈钢：现货补跌修基差，成本与负反馈盘面博弈 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 报告导读： 沪镍基本面逻辑：上下方估值空间有所收敛，镍价或转为窄幅区间震荡。短线宏观情绪影响价格边际， 但是就基本面而言，镍价的上下弹性或有一定的收敛。首先，前期报告中我们提及，镍价长线平衡估值或 在火法冶炼一体化生产成本位置。短线印尼高品位镍矿偏紧导致溢价坚挺，边际再提升 1 至 2 ...

Core Insights - The 137th Canton Fair has attracted nearly 200,000 overseas buyers from 218 countries and regions, serving as a barometer for China's foreign trade and a platform for Guangdong's regional economic breakthroughs [1] - Guangdong's county-level industrial clusters have rapidly developed under the "Hundred Thousand Project," with traditional industries like ceramics and clothing undergoing transformation and upgrades driven by emerging sectors such as artificial intelligence and electronic information [1][3] - The Canton Fair acts as a catalyst for international orders and the flow of technology and capital into county-level industries, enabling them to actively participate in the global industrial value chain [1][3] Industry Development - Companies like Lingfeng Home have successfully automated their production lines, leading to significant export growth, with annual exports reaching $300 million and a market share of 45% in high-end stainless steel kitchenware in Europe and the U.S. [2] - The modernization of production lines has allowed companies like Songfa Ceramics to enhance their market competitiveness, with plans to exceed 10 billion RMB in export value by 2024 [4] - The Canton Fair has become a strategic point for county-level industries to expand into global markets, facilitating the transition from traditional manufacturing to intelligent manufacturing [4][5] Regional Economic Impact - The Canton Fair has fostered cross-regional industrial collaboration, promoting resource flow between the Greater Bay Area and less developed regions in Guangdong [5][6] - The "reverse enclave" model is being utilized to attract investments in industries such as biomedicine, with significant projects being established in areas like Fogang County [6][7] - The fair's "long-tail effect" continues to drive innovation in local industries, with initiatives like the "Old Brand Entering Canton Fair" enhancing cultural experiences and boosting consumer interest [7]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5][8]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a low-cost leader in mica lithium extraction, driven by dual engines of lithium battery and special steel businesses. The successful expansion of mining rights and anticipated growth in lithium salt production capacity are expected to enhance profitability as lithium prices stabilize and recover [7][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company, established in 2000, has evolved from a stainless steel manufacturer to a leader in the lithium battery materials sector, maintaining a top-three market share in stainless steel long products. A strategic shift began in 2017 towards lithium battery materials, leading to significant growth in both stainless steel and lithium salt revenues [7][14]. 2. Lithium Sector - The company has secured two major mica lithium mines, achieving complete self-sufficiency in lithium resources. The mining rights for the Huashan mica mine have been expanded, increasing the production capacity from 3 million tons/year to 9 million tons/year, enhancing resource security [7][47][51]. - The current lithium carbonate production capacity stands at 30,000 tons, with plans for expansion as mining and processing projects are completed. The production cost of lithium carbonate is projected to be significantly lower than industry averages, with a forecasted cost of 47,000 RMB/ton in 2024 [7][52][53]. - The lithium market is expected to experience a bottoming phase in 2025, with a potential recovery in 2026 as supply-demand dynamics shift. The average selling prices for lithium products are projected to be 66,000 RMB/ton in 2025, increasing to 71,000 RMB/ton in 2026 [7][58]. 3. Special Steel Sector - The company is a leading player in the stainless steel long products market, with stable production and sales volumes around 300,000 tons annually. The gross profit per ton of stainless steel has increased from 1,961 RMB/ton in 2021 to 2,809 RMB/ton in 2023, reflecting improved product mix and market positioning [7][35][39]. 4. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 890 million RMB, 1.23 billion RMB, and 1.64 billion RMB for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of -14.3%, +37.1%, and +34.0%. The current price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 18, 13, and 10 for the same years [6][8].

2025 年 4 月 27 日 镍：上下方空间收敛，镍价或窄幅震荡 不锈钢：现货补跌修基差，成本与负反馈盘面博弈 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 报告导读： 沪镍基本面逻辑：上下方估值空间有所收敛，镍价或转为窄幅区间震荡。短线宏观情绪影响价格边际， 但是就基本面而言，镍价的上下弹性或有一定的收敛。首先，前期报告中我们提及，镍价长线平衡估值或 在火法冶炼一体化生产成本位置。短线印尼高品位镍矿偏紧导致溢价坚挺，边际再提升 1 至 25 美金/湿吨， 且印尼总统于 4 月 11 日正式签署镍产品特许权使用费新政，表示该政策将于 4 月 26 日正式实施，或对火 法成本再抬升 1%左右。若宏观没有出现衰退交易的情况下，火法一体化现金成本 12 万元/吨以上或对底部 形成支撑。此外，加拿大安大略省省长提出禁止向美国出口镍的可能，市场存在对美国"抢进口"担忧。 但要注意，由于镍铁的基本面转向负反馈的承压，镍铁成交由 1035 回落至 990 元/镍以下，头部企业招标 价为 970 元/镍，从转产经济性的角度考虑，或难以再次触及前高，镍价的上方空间或收敛至 12.8 万 ...

/ 国信期货研究 Page1 国信期货有色（镍、不锈钢）月报 镍 黑天鹅灰犀牛齐舞有色仍在强势风口 低位盘整 沪镍有望探底回升 2021 年 4 月 25 日 2025 年 4 月 27 日 ⚫ 主要结论： 行情方面，沪镍主力合约 2506，2025 年 4 月 24 日收于 125770 元/吨，本月 镍价整体呈先下跌后震荡回升的走势。 宏观层面，美国方面，标普全球周三发布的调查显示，4 月美国商业活动降 至 16 个月低点，而企业产品和服务价格却大幅上涨，在关税冲击下，企业对未来 产出的预期恶化，价格压力上升。4 月制造业与服务业综合产出指数初值下降 2.3 点至 51.2。这一矛盾现象强化了市场对滞胀的担忧，可能让美联储决策艰难。调 查还指出，特朗普的保护主义贸易政策和移民限制措施正在损害商品出口和旅游 业。目前，市场预期美联储下一次降息可能在 6 月，具体将取决于美国的就业数 据和通胀情况。 我国方面，国家统计局近期公布的数据显示，初步核算，一季度国内生产总 值 318758 亿元，按不变价格计算，同比增长 5.4%，比上年四季度环比增长 1.2%。 社会消费品零售总额 124671 亿元，同比增长 ...

当机车引擎的轰鸣声在沂蒙大地回响，临沂汽摩文旅活动周不仅点燃了一座城市的激情，更让一家本土企业的名字与这场盛会同频共振——山东盛阳控股 集团。作为活动的主要协办单位，这家从焦炭厂转型而来的不锈钢产业领军企业，以沂蒙精神护航产业转型，用工业力量托举文旅盛事，其董事长徐明华 的创业故事，恰似一部沂蒙企业家精神的时代注脚。 在"工业+文旅"中拓展企业发展新场景 在担当社会责任中达成发展愿景 走进盛阳集团循环经济产业园，不锈钢生产线的科技冷峻与文旅展区的热情似火形成鲜明对比。作为协办方，盛阳不仅提供主会场场地，更将工业展厅变 身文旅融合试验场：非遗扎染与不锈钢展架对话，机车特技在钢铁森林中上演。这种"工业+文旅"的跨界场景，正是徐明华提出的"产业共生"理念的生动 实践。"我们不仅要让盛阳成为工业标杆，更要让工业力量赋能城市文化。"徐明华在活动启动仪式上如是说。 徐明华的企业家情怀，是沂蒙精神在当代企业的生动投射。每一次关停，他都会带领集团骨干重走孟良崮等红色圣地，追寻先烈足迹，坚定发展信心。主 动承接"退城入园"重任，损失数十亿资产毫无怨言；投资百万元建设职工文体中心，连续二十多年举办春节联欢晚会；作为临沂市摩托车文 ...