Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a mixed performance in the domestic glass futures market, with significant declines in prices due to weak demand and ongoing supply adjustments [1][2] Group 2 - On the supply side, glass production lines are undergoing maintenance, with daily melting capacity stabilizing around 150,000 tons, and some lines still scheduled for repairs before the Spring Festival [1] - The inventory of glass companies recorded 55.518 million heavy boxes as of January 9, showing a decrease of 1.348 million heavy boxes from the previous trading day [2] - Demand remains weak, with real estate development investment and construction data continuing to show poor performance, leading to a lack of improvement in architectural glass demand [1][2] Group 3 - The processing orders for glass are in a prolonged low state, with both month-on-month and year-on-year figures remaining low, indicating insufficient demand [2] - The cancellation of export tax rebates for tempered and hollow glass has had a limited impact due to overall low export volumes [2] - Despite the reduction in glass supply, the overall supply-demand pressure is easing, suggesting potential low-buy opportunities after a long-term correction [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Medium-term outlook: Sideways [5] Core Viewpoints - In the off-season, the fundamentals are lackluster. Before the Spring Festival, continue to monitor the downstream restocking intensity. In January, the resumption of production by steel enterprises is expected to further boost the restocking expectation. The prices of furnace materials are still expected to rise from the low level, but the upside is limited by the steel mills' profits [5]. Summary by Directory Iron Element - Iron ore: Port inventory is continuously accumulating, with supply-side disturbance expectations. The resumption of hot metal production and pre-festival restocking support the ore price, but the high inventory restricts the upside. The supply and demand at both ends in reality remain to be verified, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The supply and demand of scrap steel are both weak, the steel mills' inventory is relatively high, and restocking has slowed down. However, the profits of electric furnaces are acceptable, and the daily consumption is at a high level, supporting the demand. Overall, the fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the price is expected to fluctuate mainly [1]. Carbon Element - Coke: The cost side of coke has shown signs of stabilization, and the expectation of steel mills' resumption of production still exists. As the mid - and downstream winter restocking gradually begins, and the sharp rise in the futures market may drive the entry of spot - futures and speculative demand for procurement, the supply - demand structure of coke may gradually tighten, the spot price increase is expected to be implemented, and the futures market is expected to follow the trend of coking coal [2]. - Coking coal: As the New Year approaches, the winter restocking intensity gradually increases, and the behavior of over - importing coking coal from Mongolia has improved. The overall supply pressure will be relieved, the fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and there is still upward momentum in the futures and spot prices [2]. Alloys - Manganese silicon: The pattern of loose supply and demand of manganese silicon continues, the upstream de - stocking pressure is relatively large, and it is difficult to transmit the cost downward. When the futures price rises to a high level, it will face selling pressure from hedging. In the medium term, the futures price is still expected to gradually fall back to the cost valuation level [2]. - Ferrosilicon: Currently, the supply and demand in the ferrosilicon market are both weak, and the fundamental contradictions are relatively limited. In the short term, it is expected that the futures price will mainly follow the trend of the sector [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. From a fundamental perspective, the current supply and demand are still in excess. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly. Otherwise, the price will rise [2]. - Soda ash: The overall supply and demand of soda ash are still in excess. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term. In the long run, the pattern of oversupply will further intensify, the price center will continue to decline, and capacity reduction will be promoted [2][5]. Steel - The pressure of inventory accumulation is becoming more prominent, but the cost support is relatively strong. The spot market transactions are average. As some steel mills end their maintenance, the hot metal output continues to rise, and the output of rebar and hot - rolled coils continues to increase. The demand is seasonally weakening, and the overall steel inventory has stopped falling and started to rise. The fundamental contradictions are gradually accumulating. However, with the resumption of production by steel mills and winter restocking, the cost side still has support, and the futures market will fluctuate widely [6]. Iron Ore - The overseas mine shipments have decreased month - on - month, and the arrivals are operating at a high level. The supply side has disturbance expectations, and the demand side has increased due to the resumption of production of blast furnaces and the increase in restocking demand. However, the steel mills' inventory accumulation speed is slow. The port inventory continues to accumulate significantly. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [6][7]. Scrap Steel - The supply and demand of scrap steel are both weak. The steel mills' inventory is relatively high, and restocking has slowed down. However, the profits of electric furnaces are acceptable, and the daily consumption is at a high level, supporting the demand. The overall fundamental contradictions are not prominent. The leading steel enterprises in East China have announced a price increase, and the spot price is expected to follow suit [8]. Glass - The production and sales have weakened month - on - month, and the processing factories are approaching the holiday. The supply may decline in the long run, but it is difficult to have a large number of cold repairs in the short term. The downstream demand is weak, and the large inventory in the middle - reaches always suppresses the glass valuation. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress the price, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly. Otherwise, the price will rise [12]. Soda Ash - The fundamental situation of oversupply remains unchanged, and there is still pressure on the upper price. The supply and demand fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the industry is still in the stage of clearing at the bottom of the cycle. The downstream demand is showing a downward trend, and the dynamic oversupply expectation is further intensifying. The short - term price increase is mainly driven by market sentiment. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term and decline in the long run [12][14]. Manganese Silicon - The trend of the black sector is relatively warm, but there is still pressure on the upper limit of the futures price. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon remains loose, the upstream de - stocking pressure is large, and it is difficult to transmit the cost downward. In the medium term, the futures price is expected to gradually fall back to the cost valuation level [14][15]. Ferrosilicon - The supply and demand in the market are both weak in the off - season, and it mainly follows the trend of the sector. The fundamental contradictions are relatively limited. In the short term, it is expected that the futures price will follow the trend of the sector, and attention should be paid to the adjustment of prices and the control of production in the main producing areas [16].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillatory [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillatory with a Weakening Tendency [2] - Silicomanganese: Oscillatory [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillatory [4] Core Views - The resumption of production and restocking support the upward oscillation of coking coal and coke; the speculative demand for glass and soda ash increases, leading to oscillatory movements [1] - Market sentiment for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese has improved, with alloy prices rising slightly [3] Market Analysis Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The main contract oscillated yesterday, with the spot price slightly adjusted by some manufacturers. The supply - demand contradiction has eased due to production line cold - repairs and increased consumer and speculative demand. The progress of cold - repairs and the sustainability of speculative demand should be monitored [1] - **Soda Ash**: The main contract oscillated and ended up rising. Short - term inventory reduction eases supply pressure, but long - term supply pressure remains due to increasing production capacity and limited demand from cold - repaired float glass production lines. Speculative demand provides short - term price support [1] Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon - **Silicomanganese**: Geopolitical instability and coal news have boosted market sentiment, driving up alloy futures prices. The fundamentals have improved, but inventory pressure is still high. Demand is expected to improve with steel mill复产 and winter storage. Manganese ore prices support the silicomanganese price [3] - **Ferrosilicon**: Market sentiment has improved, and the futures perform well. The spot market is stable with strong cautious sentiment. Fundamentals are controllable, but inventory has increased due to slowed downstream procurement. Demand is expected to improve with steel mill复产 and winter storage. The impact of differential electricity price policies is limited [3] Strategy - **Glass**: Oscillatory [2] - **Soda Ash**: Oscillatory with a weakening tendency [2] - **Silicomanganese**: Oscillatory [4] - **Ferrosilicon**: Oscillatory [4] - **Inter - period**: None [2] - **Inter - variety**: None [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction materials industry [1]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the CPI and PPI are better than expected, reflecting a gradual recovery in the real estate chain prices, suggesting that 2026 may mark a turning point for the industry's performance [2]. - Short-term market conditions remain volatile, with a focus on high-dividend stocks and sectors such as exports and home improvement [2]. - The report highlights the importance of technological self-reliance during the 14th Five-Year Plan, particularly in the semiconductor sector, which is expected to benefit cleanroom engineering and related companies [2]. - The real estate sector continues to face challenges, but signs of recovery are emerging as companies reduce personnel and expenses [2]. - The report emphasizes the potential for structural growth in the glass fiber and cement sectors, driven by demand from wind power and new applications [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Bulk Construction Materials Fundamentals and High-Frequency Data - Cement prices have shown a slight decline, with the national average at 352.5 RMB/ton, down 0.3 RMB/ton from the previous week and down 51.7 RMB/ton year-on-year [7][18]. - The average cement inventory ratio is 60.3%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous week but an increase of 2.8 percentage points year-on-year [25]. - The average daily cement shipment rate is 38.7%, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous week but up 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [25]. 2. Industry Dynamics Tracking - The report notes that the glass fiber industry is expected to see stable growth in demand, with effective production capacity projected to reach 759.2 million tons in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 6.9% [11]. - The cement industry is undergoing supply-side adjustments, with a focus on eliminating outdated capacity, which is expected to support profitability in 2026 [11]. - The glass market is experiencing a supply contraction, which may provide price elasticity in 2026, although current demand remains weak [11]. 3. Weekly Market Review and Sector Valuation - The construction materials sector saw a weekly increase of 3.68%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 0.90% [7]. - The report suggests that the valuation of leading companies in the construction materials sector is at historical lows, indicating potential for recovery as industry dynamics improve [11]. - Recommendations include companies like China National Building Material and Conch Cement, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing industry consolidation and recovery [11].

Group 1: Industrial Production - The operating rate of blast furnaces has improved slightly, with a week-on-week increase of 0.4% and a year-on-year rise of 1.3 percentage points to 2.2% [1][4] - Apparent steel consumption has decreased, with a week-on-week decline of 0.6% and a year-on-year drop of 1.5 percentage points to 0.6% [1][6] - Steel social inventory continues to decline, with a week-on-week decrease of 2.5% [1] Group 2: Chemical and Automotive Industries - In the chemical sector, the operating rate of soda ash has significantly increased, with a week-on-week rise of 4.4% and a year-on-year increase of 0.2 percentage points to -2.2% [10][11] - The operating rate of PTA has also improved, with a week-on-week increase of 3.2% and a year-on-year rise of 4.1 percentage points to -4.2% [10][14] - The automotive sector shows weaker performance, with the operating rate of semi-steel tires declining by 2.4% week-on-week and a year-on-year drop of 2.8 percentage points to -13% [10] Group 3: Construction Industry - The cement production and demand have marginally improved, with a week-on-week increase in grinding operating rate of 2.1% and a year-on-year rise of 5.2 percentage points to 9.9% [22][23] - Cement shipment rates have slightly decreased, with a week-on-week decline of 1.5% and a year-on-year increase of 1.9 percentage points to 0.5% [22][26] - Cement inventory continues to decline, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.5% and a year-on-year increase of 0.9 percentage points to 1.3% [22][29] Group 4: Demand Tracking - The average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities has decreased by 47.4% week-on-week and a year-on-year drop of 13.6 percentage points to 38.4% [44][45] - The transaction volume in first-tier and second-tier cities remains weak, with week-on-week declines of 30.8% and 61.9% respectively [44][48][51] - Port cargo throughput has also declined, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.6 percentage points to -0.4% [56][63] Group 5: Price Tracking - Agricultural product prices show differentiation, with vegetable and fruit prices decreasing by 0.9% and 0.2% respectively, while egg prices increased by 1.4% [98][99] - The industrial product price index has risen by 1.7% week-on-week, with the energy and chemical price index increasing by 0.7% and the metal price index rising by 3.9% [110][111]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core Viewpoints - In December 2025, China's prices recovered. CPI rose 0.8% year-on-year, reaching a new high since March 2023, with food prices playing a significant role, and core CPI remaining stable. PPI's year-on-year decline narrowed to -1.9%, with three consecutive months of positive month-on-month growth, and prices in upstream and new-quality productivity-related industries were well-supported. In 2026, the central bank may continue its moderately loose monetary policy, with a new focus on "optimizing supply." It may focus on price recovery, keeping financing costs low, strengthening the prevention and control of financing platform debt risks, and promoting financial opening-up. In the US, the December non-farm payrolls were lower than expected, but the unemployment rate decreased. Traders postponed the first interest rate cut in 2026 to June, with an expected total cut of 50BP for the year [2][4][118]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro News - **CPI and PPI Trends**: In December 2025, CPI rose 0.8% year-on-year, with food prices rising 1.1% and contributing significantly. Core CPI was stable at 1.2%. PPI's year-on-year decline narrowed to -1.9%, and it had three consecutive months of positive month-on-month growth [4][13][29]. - **Factors Affecting CPI**: Food prices, especially fresh vegetables and fruits, drove CPI growth, while energy prices, affected by international oil prices, restricted CPI growth [19]. - **Factors Affecting PPI**: Domestic policies, seasonal demand, input factors, and new-quality productivity all influenced PPI trends. Upstream prices were supported by policies and seasonal demand, and new-quality productivity-related industries contributed to price increases [33][38]. - **Central Bank Policy**: The 2026 central bank work conference added "optimizing supply" as a policy focus, emphasizing balanced credit supply, reasonable price recovery, and support for financing platform debt risk resolution [43]. - **US Non-farm Payrolls**: In December 2025, US non-farm payrolls increased by 50,000, lower than expected, and the unemployment rate decreased to 4.4%. Traders postponed the first interest rate cut to June, with an expected 50BP cut for the year [4][48]. 3.2 Meso-level High-frequency Data - **Consumption**: Passenger car retail and wholesale volumes increased year-on-year, but movie box office revenue decreased. Three major household appliances' retail volume and revenue showed mixed trends [4][9][54]. - **Transportation**: Passenger transportation activities were relatively high, with increases in migration, flight numbers, and subway ridership. However, freight transportation, including postal, railway, and highway, decreased [4][9][59]. - **Industry**: Most industrial indicators showed a year-on-year decline, including steel production, coal consumption, and factory operating rates [4][9][64]. - **Real Estate**: The real estate market continued to decline, with decreases in housing sales area and land transactions [9][76][80]. - **Prices**: Food prices showed mixed trends, with pork prices down and vegetable prices up. Industrial product prices also varied, with some rising and some falling [4][9][90]. 3.3 Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets - **Bond Yields**: Most government bond yields increased, with significant adjustments at the long end. The yields of national debt, policy bank bonds, local government bonds, and interbank certificates of deposit all changed to varying degrees [4][104][109]. - **Foreign Exchange Rates**: The US dollar to RMB exchange rate decreased, and the yields of ten-year government bonds in the US, Japan, the UK, and Germany also changed [113][117]. 3.4 Investment Recommendations - The bond market in 2026 may perform better than expected. Attention should be paid to the potential rebound of long-term bonds. It is recommended to focus on long-term bond trading opportunities, allocate 3 - 5Y capital bonds for coupon income, and explore multi-asset investment opportunities [4].

Group 1: Industrial Production - The operating rate of blast furnaces improved slightly, with a week-on-week increase of 0.4% and a year-on-year rise of 1.3 percentage points to 2.2% [1][4] - Apparent steel consumption decreased by 0.6% week-on-week and fell by 1.5 percentage points year-on-year to 0.6% [1][6] - Steel social inventory continued to decline, down 2.5% week-on-week [1] Group 2: Chemical and Automotive Industries - In the chemical sector, the operating rate of soda ash increased significantly by 4.4% week-on-week and rose by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year to -2.2% [10][11] - The operating rate of PTA rose by 3.2% week-on-week and increased by 4.1 percentage points year-on-year to -4.2% [10][14] - The operating rate of polyester filament increased by 0.4% week-on-week and rose by 3 percentage points year-on-year to 4.8%, while the operating rate of automotive semi-steel tires showed weakness, down 2.4% week-on-week and falling by 2.8 percentage points year-on-year to -13% [10][18] Group 3: Construction Industry - The cement production and demand showed marginal improvement, with the national grinding operating rate increasing by 2.1% week-on-week and rising by 5.2 percentage points year-on-year to 9.9% [22][23] - Cement shipment rate decreased by 1.5% week-on-week but increased by 1.9 percentage points year-on-year to 0.5% [22][26] - The cement inventory ratio continued to decline, down 0.5% week-on-week and up 0.9 percentage points year-on-year to 1.3% [22][30] Group 4: Demand Tracking - The average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities decreased by 47.4% week-on-week and fell by 13.6 percentage points year-on-year to 38.4% [44][45] - The transaction volume in first-tier and second-tier cities was significantly weaker than the previous year, with first-tier cities down 30.8% week-on-week and 12.7 percentage points year-on-year to 44.5%, and second-tier cities down 61.9% week-on-week and 15.8 percentage points year-on-year to 29.8% [44][48][51] - The freight volume related to domestic demand showed a decline, with railway freight volume down 5.9 percentage points year-on-year to -10.3% and highway freight traffic down 8.4 percentage points year-on-year to -9.7% [56][58] Group 5: Price Tracking - Agricultural product prices showed differentiation, with vegetable and fruit prices decreasing by 0.9% and 0.2% respectively, while egg prices increased by 1.4% [98] - The industrial product price index rose by 1.7% week-on-week, with the energy and chemical price index increasing by 0.7% and the metal price index rising by 3.9% [110][114]

Group 1: Electronic Yarn - The price of electronic yarn has increased, with G75 average price in China maintaining at 9377 yuan/ton, a nearly 1% increase month-on-month and an 11.31% increase year-on-year, driven by tight supply-demand dynamics in mid-to-high-end products [1] - The demand for high-end PCB is expected to support further price increases in the future [1] - Companies to watch include China Jushi (600176.SH) and China National Materials (002080.SZ) [1] Group 2: Cement Industry - The national cement market is entering a seasonal downturn, with overall demand showing a downward trend, particularly in the housing market, while infrastructure demand is regionally differentiated [2] - Mid-term capacity in the cement industry is expected to decline under production restriction policies, leading to increased capacity utilization and profit elasticity [2] - Companies to focus on include Conch Cement (600585.SH) and Huaxin Cement (600801.SH) [2] Group 3: Glass Industry - The glass industry is experiencing a continuous decline in demand due to the impact of real estate, with traditional peak season orders under pressure and high inventory levels among intermediaries [2] - Despite some production lines undergoing maintenance, the overall supply-demand pressure remains, and prices are expected to stay low in the short term [2] - Flagship companies to monitor include Qibin Group (601636.SH) [2] Group 4: Glass Fiber Industry - Demand in the glass fiber sector is stable in wind power and thermoplastic fields, while traditional demand is slowing down [2] - The electronic yarn segment is performing well, driven by demand from the AI industry, with expectations for significant growth in low-dielectric products [2] - Companies to watch include China Jushi and China National Materials [2] Group 5: Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials sector has reached a profitability bottom, with no further downward price space due to years of competition [3] - The industry is strongly advocating for price increases and profit improvements, with multiple categories like waterproofing, coatings, and gypsum boards expected to issue price increase notices [3] - Companies to focus on include Oriental Yuhong (002271.SZ), Sankeshu (603737.SH), Beixin Building Materials (000786.SZ), and Tubao (002043.SZ) [3]

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the building materials industry is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the electronic yarn prices have increased, with the average price of domestic G75 remaining at 9377 RMB/ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of nearly 1% and a year-on-year increase of 11.31%. This price increase is supported by the growing demand in the high-end PCB sector, indicating further price increase expectations [3][4] - The cement market is entering a seasonal downturn, with overall demand showing a downward trend. The construction market remains weak, but there is a rigid demand in the civil market. The report anticipates that cement production capacity will continue to decline under policies limiting overproduction, which will significantly enhance profit elasticity [3][4] - The glass industry is experiencing a continuous decline in demand due to real estate impacts, with short-term price expectations remaining low due to high inventory levels among intermediaries. The report predicts that prices will remain under pressure despite some production lines undergoing maintenance [4][15] - The fiberglass sector is seeing stable demand in wind power and thermoplastic fields, with the electronic yarn segment benefiting from AI industry demand, leading to a potential explosive growth in demand [4] - The consumer building materials sector has reached a profitability bottom, with no further downward price space. The report notes a strong demand for price increases across various categories, indicating potential profitability improvements for leading companies in 2026 [4] Summary by Sections Cement - National cement production in November 2025 was 154 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.2%. The report emphasizes the need for policy-driven demand improvements [8] Glass - The report indicates that the glass market is under pressure, with traditional peak season orders showing limited improvement. The supply side has seen some production line maintenance, but overall supply-demand pressure remains [15] Fiberglass - The fiberglass sector is expected to see a demand surge driven by AI-related applications, with a clear upgrade in product structure leading to simultaneous volume and price increases [4] Consumer Building Materials - The report suggests that the consumer building materials industry is poised for profitability recovery, with leading companies expected to improve earnings in 2026 due to strong pricing power [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The glass industry is currently experiencing a situation where supply has decreased significantly, demand is weak, and inventory shows differentiation. The pressure on inventory after the Spring Festival is relatively high, and more supply clearance is needed. For the纯碱 industry, the pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand continues, and attention should be paid to changes on the supply - side [28][38] Summary by Directory 01 Glass Supply - Recently, there have been many production cuts in the glass industry. Multiple glass production lines in different regions such as Central China, South China, and East China are scheduled for cold repair from the end of 2025 to early 2026, with a total reduction in daily melting capacity. As of December 5, 2025, the total daily melting capacity was 155,965 tons, a 3% decrease compared to the beginning of the year, with a reduction of 4,300 tons [4][7] Demand - There is an expected difference in demand. Downstream customers adopt a back - to - back purchasing model without stockpiling. Demand has declined, with fewer orders. The deep - processing order level is also affected [13] Inventory - Inventory shows differentiation. After the reduction in supply, manufacturers' inventory has shown differences. The inventory decreased last week and is expected to continue to decline next week. However, the upstream inventory reduction is mainly driven by speculative demand from the middle - stream. Continued attention should be paid to the inventory reduction situation [17] Month - to - Month and Basis - The increase in the futures market has strengthened basis trading and driven up upstream prices. The downstream in Shahe has started to participate, but the sustainability is limited. The month - to - month spread remains weak, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [24][26] Market Outlook - Based on a 6% decline in apparent demand, if the current supply remains unchanged, the inventory can be maintained at a reasonably high level. However, considering the relatively high middle - stream inventory, the pattern of squeezing profits will not change. There is an expected seasonal inventory build - up during the Spring Festival, and there is little opportunity for profit. If the profit squeeze continues, the post - festival pressure will not be too great. Theoretically, as long as the supply continues to decrease, there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the second half of this year [29] 02纯碱 Supply - The production of soda ash has increased, mainly due to the increased production of the second - phase project in Alxa. Several enterprises and projects are expected to be put into production in the future, including Hubei Xindu Chemical, Hubei Jinjiang New Materials, etc., which will further increase the supply [32][35] Demand - The pattern of downstream customers squeezing profits in the soda ash industry remains unchanged [36] Market Situation - The pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand in the soda ash industry continues. The spot price remains low, and the month - to - month spread remains weak. Attention should also be paid to the production reduction situation in the future [38][39]