Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **coal industry** in China, focusing on supply-demand dynamics, pricing trends, and the impact of government policies on coal and energy production [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Coal Consumption and Demand Forecast**: - Daily coal consumption is expected to exceed **2.3 million tons** this year, with peak demand in July and August likely to surpass expectations due to rising temperatures [1][3]. 2. **Coal Price Trends**: - Coal prices have declined to **640-650 CNY/ton**, influenced by increased imports and domestic supply from Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang, alongside low electricity demand during a warm winter [1][4][7]. - The price is projected to rebound to **670-680 CNY/ton** as temperatures rise, with a stable bottom expected between **610-650 CNY/ton** [1][8]. 3. **Future of Thermal Power and New Energy Installations**: - New energy installations are expected to peak in **2024** at approximately **350 GW**, but policy changes and subsidy withdrawals may suppress future growth [5]. - The most significant pressure on thermal power is anticipated in **2025**, with a gradual easing of pressure expected by **2026** and potential growth in **2027** [5]. 4. **Impact of Leadership Changes in Xinjiang**: - Recent leadership changes in Xinjiang may affect coal production capacity expansion, potentially leading to a reduction in new coal capacity in the medium to long term [6]. 5. **Supply and Import Dynamics**: - Domestic coal supply is stabilizing but slightly declining, with imports expected to total **450-460 million tons** for the year, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of **8-9 million tons** [7]. 6. **Market Supply-Demand Situation**: - The coal market is characterized by stable supply and rising demand, with a price bottom forming in early **2025** [8]. 7. **Government Policies on Market Competition**: - The Central Financial Committee's recent discussions emphasize the need to combat low-price competition and promote orderly market conditions, marking a shift towards market-driven adjustments rather than strict regulatory measures [2][9]. 8. **Lessons from the Cement Industry**: - The cement industry has successfully implemented collaborative production strategies to enhance profitability, which could serve as a model for other cyclical industries facing similar challenges [10][11]. Additional Important Insights - The coal industry is experiencing a **prisoner's dilemma** scenario, where companies continue production despite losses to maintain market share, complicating efforts to reduce supply and stabilize prices [12][13][14]. - The unique characteristics of the cement industry, such as lower transportation costs and easier production adjustments, contrast sharply with the complexities faced by the coal and other heavy industries [15]. - The steel market is currently viewed as the most favorable among commodity sectors, while the coking coal market faces significant challenges, with over **90%** of companies reporting losses in the second quarter [16][17]. Investment Recommendations - Short-term investment strategies should focus on leading companies in the coal sector, such as **Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry**, **China Shenhua Energy**, **China Coal Energy**, and **Jin控煤业**, as they align with current market trends and investment logic [18].

Macro Analysis - The recovery in U.S. non-farm employment in June 2025 shows concerns as government jobs contributed nearly half of the new jobs, raising doubts about sustainability [1] - Private sector employment weakened, with service sector job additions dropping from 141,000 to 68,000, indicating potential economic pressure from tariffs [1] - The probability of the Federal Reserve restarting interest rate cuts in the second half of the year remains significant [1] Tax Policy Impact - The successful implementation of the tax reduction bill may partially offset economic pressures from tariffs, but its limited impact suggests it will not provide strong stimulus [2] - The tax bill is expected to increase the U.S. government deficit by approximately $4 trillion over the next decade, exacerbating supply-demand mismatches in U.S. Treasury bonds [2] Trade Agreements - The U.S. is focusing on negotiating 10 trade agreements with Asian countries, with preliminary agreements reached with Vietnam and potential agreements with India, Malaysia, and Indonesia [3] - The deadline for negotiations has been extended to September 1, indicating a flexible approach from the U.S. government [3] REITs Market - As of June 30, 2025, the number of public REITs in China reached 68, with a total issuance scale of 177.06 billion yuan [4] - The secondary market for public REITs experienced a price correction but still achieved a positive return of 1.95% for the month [4] Credit Bonds - The total outstanding credit bonds in China reached 29.96 trillion yuan by the end of June 2025, with a monthly issuance of 1,316.36 billion yuan, reflecting a 62.65% increase month-on-month [5] - Credit spreads for various levels of local government bonds widened slightly compared to the previous month [5] Automotive Industry - In Q2 2025, Tesla's global delivery volume showed a recovery, while domestic competitors like Li Auto and NIO stabilized [12] - The Xiaomi YU7 has seen a surge in orders, prompting new energy vehicle companies to enhance their purchasing incentives [12] Chemical Industry - MXD6, a special nylon, exhibits high gas barrier properties and rigidity, with significant application potential in food packaging and automotive sectors [13] - The increasing production capacity of domestic manufacturers is expected to enhance the cost-effectiveness of MXD6 composite materials, expanding its market applications [13] Company Analysis - The report highlights the investment value of YUEJIANG (2432.HK), a leading global collaborative robot manufacturer, emphasizing its strong market position and technological advantages [14] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 500 million, 670 million, and 890 million yuan from 2024 to 2027, respectively, with an "accumulate" rating assigned [14]

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2025/07/07 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 玻璃期货还可以继续做多吗？ 玻璃期货冲高之后连续两日下跌，回调的做多的好机会。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 减产预期成为价格上涨的关键动力。有消息称国内头部光伏玻璃企业计划自7月开始集体减产30%，预计7 月供应量将下降至45GW左右 ，此前玻璃行业供应过剩严重，价格跌超70%，行业处于亏损状态，减产将 缓解供需失衡，加速产能出清，利于价格复苏，受此消息影响，期货价格上涨。此外，三峡新材7月1日晚 间公告拟对浮法玻璃生产一线进行停产冷修，期限约1年，供应端的这些减产动作对价格形成支撑。 政策因素也为玻璃期货价格上涨提供助力。中央财经委员会提出要依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，引导 企业提升产品品质，推动落后产能有序退出。对于产能过剩的玻璃行业来说，一方面企业提升产品品质会 使成本提高，另一方面落后产能退出会减少供应，因此 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 玻璃纯碱周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·张驰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011243 日期：2025年7月6日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 纯碱：供应、 库存 05 纯碱：价格、 利润 06 01 玻璃：供应 端情况介绍 02 玻璃：价格 与利润 03 玻璃：库存 及下游开工 光伏玻璃： 价格与利润、 04 CONTENTS 产能与库存 玻璃观点：中期震荡市 第三、轻重碱价差偏低、今年出口较好、库存集中度较高等因素目前只能认为是潜在支撑。需要有玻璃好转带动纯碱好转 因素支撑，潜在利多因素才能发酵。 第一，短期现货成交稳定，反内卷、反通缩等政策提议以及旺季预期因素等助推反弹。但湖北仓单定价对盘 面压制因素，高库存因素，暂不宜对玻璃过度高看，当然低位下跌空间也有限。未来需要看到房地产市场好 转，玻璃价格或能阶段性反弹； 第二、趋势上多头交易的核心支撑主要在政策端未来可能因地产收储、政府财政支持，政策资金保障加强后 保交 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the building materials industry, particularly highlighting the recovery potential in the consumption building materials sector and the cement industry [2][4]. Core Insights - The building materials industry has seen a resurgence in attention since July 1, driven by expectations of supply-side improvements and demand upgrades, particularly in the cement and glass sectors [2][4]. - The cement industry is expected to benefit from policies aimed at limiting overproduction, while the glass industry is experiencing changes due to reductions in production capacity and demand fluctuations [2][9]. - The waterproofing sector has seen unprecedented price increases among leading companies, indicating a potential recovery in profitability [3][5]. - AI demand is reshaping market expectations, particularly in the low dielectric cloth segment, which is expected to see continued product premium during the upgrade process [3][26]. Summary by Sections Consumption Building Materials - The logic of improving market dynamics is beginning to materialize, with price communication among companies becoming more favorable [5]. - The waterproofing industry has seen a significant price increase among leading firms, indicating a recovery in profitability [5][6]. - The report anticipates that profitability recovery will outpace revenue growth in 2025, driven by cost reductions and stabilized pricing [5]. Cement - The cement industry is experiencing a "reverse involution" with policies aimed at limiting overproduction, which is expected to stabilize prices [9][11]. - Demand remains weak, with a notable decline in production and sales, but the industry is expected to see a recovery in profitability as supply-side adjustments take effect [11][12]. - The report likens the supply-demand dynamics in the cement industry to a "tortoise and hare" race, where supply adjustments may lead to improved profitability despite weak demand [12][14]. Glass - The float glass market is currently facing pressure with prices remaining low and demand weak, leading to cash flow challenges for many companies [17][24]. - The report highlights that the photovoltaic glass sector is entering a cash loss zone, prompting accelerated cold repairs among manufacturers [24][25]. - The automotive glass segment is expected to maintain stable profitability due to product structure improvements and cost optimization [21][22]. Fiberglass - The demand for low dielectric cloth is expected to increase due to the AI industry's growth, with companies positioned well for product upgrades [26][27]. - The report notes that mainstream electronic cloth products are performing steadily, with potential price increases anticipated in the future [27][28]. Carbon Fiber - The wind power sector is seeing a recovery in demand, which is expected to lead to improved profitability in Q2 [32].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 07 06 年 月 日 建筑材料 供给侧改革预期升温，关注水泥、玻璃积极变化 2025 年 6 月 30 日至 7 月 4 日建筑材料板块（SW）上涨 3.50%，其中水 泥（SW）上涨 2.57%，玻璃制造（SW）上涨 7.52%，玻纤制造（SW） 上涨 11.14%，装修建材（SW）上涨 0.38%，本周建材板块相对沪深 300 超额收益+2.33%。本期建筑材料板块（SW）资金净流入额为+0.96 亿元。 【周数据总结和观点】 本周中央财经委员会第六次会议强调"纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，要 聚焦重点难点，依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品品质， 推动落后产能有序退出"，同时本周住建部调研组表示，"促进房地产市场 平稳、健康、高质量发展具有重要意义"，"持续巩固房地产市场稳定态势"， "要多管齐下稳定预期、激活需求、优化供给、化解风险，更大力度推动 房地产市场止跌回稳"。根据 wind 统计，2025 年 6 月地方政府债总发行 量 11753.22 亿元，发行金额环比 2025 年 5 月增长 50.8%，同比 2024 年 ...

Research on Ferrous and Construction Commodities 华泰期货研究院钢铁煤炭与建材研究 本期分析研究员 华泰期货研究 2025 年期货市场展望 下半年房地产竣工端的玻璃消费仍将进一步走弱，其中家装散单消费也将继续下滑，汽车玻璃消费有望继续保持正增长，预计全年玻璃消 费下降约 7.1%。供应端，当前浮法玻璃利润均已大幅收窄，部分制法出现明显亏损，若全行业继续出现大幅亏损，不排除部分产线有下 滑可能...... 玻璃需求持续走弱，关注供应端变化 钢铁煤炭与建材研究 王海涛 从业资格号：F3057899 投资咨询号：Z0016256 余彩云 从业资格号：F03096767 投资咨询号：Z0020310 玻璃需求持续走弱，关注供应端变化 研究院 黑色建材组 2025 年 07 月 06 日 邝志鹏 从业资格号：F3056360 投资咨询号：Z0016171 刘国梁 从业资格号：F03108558 投资咨询号：Z0021505 期货研究报告 | 玻璃半年报 2025-07-06 研究员 王海涛 邮箱：wanghaitao@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3057899 投资咨 ...

Group 1: Industry Overview - The construction materials industry has seen a significant increase in attention since July 1, driven by unexpected changes on the supply side and a focus on demand upgrades for the end of 2024 [1][2] - The cement industry is experiencing a "de-involution" policy expectation, with a focus on limiting overproduction and improving regulatory oversight [2][10] - The demand side is shifting, with AI-related demand expected to accelerate, positively impacting various segments of the industry [3][27] Group 2: Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials sector is witnessing a rare price increase in the waterproofing industry, indicating a potential recovery in profitability [4][5] - Companies like Sanke Tree and Dongfang Yuhong are showing improved profitability through cost reduction and price increases, validating earlier industry reports [4][5] - The outlook for 2025 suggests that profitability recovery will outpace revenue growth, with expectations of reduced price competition and improved cost management [4][5] Group 3: Cement Industry - The cement industry is expected to see a recovery in profitability as supply-side adjustments take effect, with a focus on limiting production and improving cash flow [10][12] - Major companies like Conch Cement and Huaxin Cement are expected to maintain strong cash flow and dividend policies, indicating long-term investment value [11][16][17] - The industry's overall profitability is anticipated to improve as demand stabilizes and production constraints are implemented [12][15] Group 4: Glass Industry - The float glass market is experiencing price fluctuations due to supply-demand imbalances, with expectations of cash losses for many companies [19][20] - Companies like Xinyi Glass and Qibin Group are facing challenges but are expected to maintain stable profitability in their automotive glass segments [21][22] - The photovoltaic glass sector is entering a cash loss phase, prompting accelerated cold repairs and production adjustments [25][26] Group 5: Fiber Industry - The fiberglass sector is seeing stable demand for mainstream electronic yarns, with a focus on high-end products like low-dielectric cloth [27][28] - Companies like China Jushi are expanding production capacity overseas to mitigate trade risks and maintain growth [29][30] - The carbon fiber market is showing signs of recovery in wind power demand, with expectations of improved profitability in Q2 [32]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the PCB upstream new materials, particularly in the fields of electronic cloth and copper foil [2][14]. Core Insights - The report highlights the shift in Nvidia's GB200NVLink design to high-layer, high-frequency low-dielectric PCBs, which is expected to catalyze demand for upstream new materials in AI applications [2][14]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing price increases in the waterproof industry, with major companies like Keshun and Dongfang Yuhong announcing price hikes, reflecting a consensus among industry leaders to combat excessive competition [3][15]. - The report notes the potential for local manufacturing growth in Africa, particularly through companies like Keda Manufacturing, which is integrating into local economies by producing tiles and sanitary ware [4][16]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Discussion - The report continues to explore the potential of PCB upstream new materials, focusing on electronic cloth and copper foil, with a significant gap in expectations for high-end copper foil materials [2][14]. 2. Industry Price Changes - The report details the recent price adjustments in the waterproof sector, with companies implementing price increases ranging from 2% to 13% across various product categories [3][15]. - It also provides insights into the cement sector, noting a national average price of 349 RMB/t, a year-on-year decrease of 41 RMB, and an average shipment rate of 43.2% [5][17]. 3. Market Performance - The report indicates that the construction materials index increased by 3.91% this week, with notable performances in glass manufacturing and fiberglass sectors [23][27]. - It highlights the average price of float glass at 1201.02 RMB/ton, with a slight increase of 0.13% compared to the previous week [5][17]. 4. National Subsidy Tracking - The report discusses the government's initiatives to boost consumption, including the organization of new energy vehicle promotions and the issuance of funds for trade-in programs [6][18]. 5. Important Changes - The report notes significant developments, including the central government's emphasis on regulating low-price competition and the announcement of price adjustments by leading waterproof companies [7][22].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The ongoing "anti-involution" initiative is expected to improve the fundamentals of the construction materials industry, with a focus on enhancing product quality and phasing out outdated production capacity [3] - The report highlights specific companies to watch, including SanKeTree, Dongfang Yuhong, Weixing New Materials, and Jianlang Hardware, as well as beneficiaries like Beixin Building Materials [3] - The cement sector is projected to benefit from energy-saving and carbon reduction initiatives, with a target to control cement clinker capacity to around 1.8 billion tons by the end of 2025 [3] Market Performance - The construction materials index increased by 3.96% in the week from June 30 to July 4, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.42 percentage points [4][13] - Over the past three months, the CSI 300 index rose by 8.01%, while the construction materials index only increased by 2.47%, indicating a lag of 5.55 percentage points [4][13] - In the past year, the CSI 300 index has risen by 16.06%, compared to an 11.69% increase in the construction materials index, resulting in a 4.38 percentage point underperformance [4][13] Cement Sector - As of July 4, 2025, the average price of P.O42.5 bulk cement was 293.11 RMB/ton, reflecting a 1.97% decrease from the previous period [6][24] - The clinker inventory ratio nationwide was 68.18%, down by 1.18 percentage points [6][25] - Regional price variations were noted, with the Northeast region remaining stable, while other regions like North China and Southwest saw declines of 4.13% and 6.58%, respectively [6][24] Glass Sector - The average price of float glass was 1201.35 RMB/ton as of July 4, 2025, showing a slight increase of 0.07% [6][74] - The inventory of float glass decreased by 1.17%, with a total of 58.31 million weight boxes reported [6][76] - The price of photovoltaic glass fell by 3.88%, with an average price of 116.02 RMB/weight box [6][81] Fiberglass Sector - The price of non-alkali 2400tex direct yarn ranged from 3400 to 4100 RMB/ton, with variations based on specific product types [6] - The fiberglass sector is expected to benefit from favorable tariffs for companies with overseas production bases [3] Consumer Building Materials - The report indicates that raw material prices for consumer building materials have remained relatively stable with slight fluctuations [6][5]