Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The steel market shows increased prices and better spot trading volume. The "15th Five-Year Plan" may issue a proposal for clearer guidance, and the Sino-US economic and trade negotiations and APEC meeting may boost market risk appetite. The steel inventory is back in the destocking phase, and the high - production dilemma needs time to resolve. In the medium - term of the fourth quarter, carbon elements may outperform iron elements [2]. - The rebound space of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is limited, and the prices tend to fluctuate. The overall black - sector is under pressure due to weak downstream demand. Although there are factors supporting the rebound, the oversupply situation restricts price increases [3][5]. - The coking coal and coke futures continue to challenge the "anti - involution" trading high. The second round of spot price increases has been fully implemented. However, considering the approaching off - season of steel demand, the decline in steel mill profitability, and environmental protection restrictions, the tight supply - demand situation of coal and coke may ease [6]. - For iron ore, industrial contradictions are gradually accumulating. The supply side has no major problems, but high iron - making water production may lead to oversupply in the fourth quarter. The expected increase in shipments from Simandou restricts the price ceiling [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - On October 27, the far - month contract closing prices of RB2605, JM2605, HC2605, J2605 were 3312.00, 400, 4000, 1910.00 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding price increases of 45.00, 45.00, 13.00, 15.00 yuan and increases of 1.45%, 1.73%, 1.38%, 0.79%. The near - month contract closing prices of HC2601, RB2601, J2601, JM2601 were 3299.00, 3100.00, 786.50, 1263.50 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding price increases of 15.00, 47.00, 47.00 yuan and increases of - 0.96%, 1.45%, 0.79%, 1.54% [1]. - The spot trading volume has recovered to 120,000 tons, which is at a relatively high level this year. The overall steel inventory is back in the destocking phase, in line with the seasonality. The "Silver October" still has a peak - season demand release, but the demand has no strong explosive power, and the high - production dilemma needs time to resolve [2]. - Suggestions: Adopt a wait - and - see or fluctuating approach for single - side trading; observe the opportunity to go long on the spread between rebar and hot - rolled coil when the spread of the 01 contract is below 150. For futures - spot reverse arbitrage, take rolling profit - taking and wait for positive arbitrage [7]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - The rebound space is limited, and the prices tend to fluctuate. The overall black - sector is under pressure due to weak downstream demand. Although there are factors such as good supply - demand, cost support, low valuation, and a positive macro - environment, the oversupply situation restricts price increases [3][5]. - Suggestions: Gradually take profit on previous long positions [7]. Coking Coal and Coke - On October 27, the spot prices of coking coal and coke showed certain changes. The second round of spot price increases for coke has been fully implemented. The coking coal auction prices are mostly rising, but the market for Mongolian coal is cold [1][6]. - The coking coal supply is low due to frequent supply - side disturbances, and the steel mills' high - level iron - making water results in strong demand for coking coal. However, considering the approaching off - season of steel demand, the decline in steel mill profitability, and environmental protection restrictions, the tight supply - demand situation may ease [6]. - Suggestions: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. For industrial customers with a premium on the coke futures market, consider selling some spot goods on the futures market when the price rises [6][7]. Iron Ore - The supply side of iron ore has no major problems. The BHP's current shipment is down 10.4 tons/day compared to the previous period, still within a reasonable range. High iron - making water production may lead to oversupply in the fourth quarter, and the expected increase in shipments from Simandou restricts the price ceiling [7]. - Suggestions: Adopt a wait - and - see approach, and pay attention to the overall sentiment of commodities and the results of Sino - US trade negotiations [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Iron Ore**: Expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][5] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: In the off - season, focus on the expected rebound opportunities of steel prices [2][6] - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: The spot market trading sentiment is average, with wide - range fluctuations [2][10] - **Coke**: Expected to fluctuate strongly [2][13] - **Coking Coal**: Supported by fundamentals, expected to fluctuate strongly [2][14] - **Logs**: Expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][16] 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The futures closed at 786.5 yuan/ton, up 15.5 yuan or 2.01%. The position decreased by 6,796 lots to 558,846 lots. Imported ore prices generally rose, while domestic ore prices declined. The basis and spreads showed different changes [4] - **News**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations were held in Kuala Lumpur from October 25th to 26th, and preliminary consensus was reached on multiple important economic and trade issues [4] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [4] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Price and Position Data**: Rebar RB2601 closed at 3,100 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan or 1.54%. Hot - rolled coil HC2601 closed at 3,299 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan or 1.45%. Spot prices in various regions showed an upward trend. The basis and spreads also changed [6] - **News**: In the week of October 23rd, rebar production increased by 5.91 tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 0.62 tons, and the total inventory of five major varieties decreased by 27.41 tons. In September 2025, national steel production data showed different trends [7][8] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [9] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price and Position Data**: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased. Spot prices also showed a downward trend. The basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads changed [10] - **News**: On October 27th, silicon - iron prices in different regions were reported, and NMT announced the November 2025 manganese ore shipment price to China [10] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [12] Coke and Coking Coal - **Price and Position Data**: Coking coal JM2601 closed at 1,263.5 yuan/ton, up 1.2%. Coke J2601 closed at 1,779.5 yuan/ton, up 1.3%. Spot prices of coking coal and coke showed different changes. The basis and spreads also had corresponding changes [14] - **News**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations were held in Kuala Lumpur from October 25th to 26th, and preliminary consensus was reached on multiple important economic and trade issues [15] - **Trend Intensity**: 1 for both, indicating a relatively strong trend [15] Logs - **Price and Position Data**: The closing prices of different contracts decreased, with daily and weekly declines. The trading volume and position of some contracts changed significantly [17] - **News**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations were held in Kuala Lumpur from October 25th to 26th, and preliminary consensus was reached on multiple important economic and trade issues [19] - **Trend Intensity**: 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [19]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ★☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Manganese Silicon: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The steel market is expected to continue its short - term rebound, with attention on demand changes and domestic demand stimulus policies [1] - Iron ore is expected to mainly fluctuate at a high level [2] - Coke and coking coal prices may be more likely to rise than fall [3][5] - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices mainly follow the trend of steel [6][7] Summary by Related Categories Steel - The futures market rebounded significantly today. Thread apparent demand continued to pick up but was still weak year - on - year, production increased, and inventory continued to decline. Hot - rolled demand continued to rise, production was basically flat, and inventory declined [1] - Iron - making water production remained high overall, downstream carrying capacity was insufficient, and the negative feedback pressure in the industrial chain needed to be alleviated [1] - From September data, real estate investment continued to decline significantly, infrastructure and manufacturing investment growth rates continued to fall, domestic demand was still weak overall, and steel exports remained high [1] - Positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade consultations and increased environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan improved market sentiment [1] Iron Ore - On the supply side, global shipments increased at a high level and were stronger than the same period last year. Brazilian shipments increased significantly, Australian shipments to China decreased, and domestic arrivals fell below the annual average [2] - On the demand side, iron - making water production gradually declined from a high level, the steel mill profitability rate shrank to a low level for the year, and there was still pressure for production cuts due to factors such as Tangshan's production restrictions [2] - Positive progress in the new round of Sino - US economic and trade consultations and the convening of important domestic meetings led to some policy - friendly expectations and improved market sentiment [2] Coke - The price rose during the day. The second round of coke price increases was fully implemented. Coking coal prices rose faster, resulting in average coking profits and a slight decrease in daily production [3] - Coke inventory hardly changed. Downstream buyers made small - scale on - demand purchases and mainly consumed inventory, and traders' purchasing willingness was average [3] - Overall, the supply of carbon elements was abundant, steel profit levels were average, and there was strong pressure to reduce raw material prices [3] Coking Coal - The price rose during the day. Tangshan carried out about 4 days of strict environmental protection - related production restrictions this week, and there was still some room for a decline in iron - making water production, but the impact duration was short [5] - Coking coal mine production decreased slightly, spot auction transactions improved, transaction prices rose, and terminal inventory increased [5] - Total coking coal inventory increased slightly month - on - month, production - end inventory decreased slightly, and production cuts due to self - inspections by coking coal mines increased slightly as safety inspections approached in major coal - producing areas [5] Manganese Silicon - The price fluctuated during the day. On the demand side, iron - making water production remained above 239, but Tangshan's production restrictions this week might lead to a further decline [6] - Weekly manganese silicon production decreased slightly, production remained at a high level, inventory decreased slightly, and both futures and spot demand were still good [6] - The forward quotation of manganese ore increased slightly month - on - month, and spot ore was boosted by the futures market. Manganese ore inventory decreased slightly, and the contradiction was not prominent [6] Ferrosilicon - The price fluctuated during the day. On the demand side, iron - making water production remained above 239, but Tangshan's production restrictions this week might lead to a further decline [7] - Export demand remained at about 30,000 tons, with a small marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increased slightly month - on - month, and secondary demand increased marginally. Overall demand was acceptable [7] - Ferrosilicon supply remained at a high level, and on - balance - sheet inventory continued to decline [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - The stock market is expected to be boosted by the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee and Sino-US trade negotiations, with short - term strength and small - cap stocks relatively stronger [3][4]. - The RMB exchange rate is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate meeting. Export enterprises can lock in forward exchange settlement at around 7.15, while import enterprises can adopt a rolling purchase strategy at around 7.10 [2][3]. - The shipping index (European Line) futures are expected to fluctuate within a range with a slightly upward shift, and a long - biased strategy can be considered [6][7][10]. - Precious metals are in a short - term adjustment phase but will continue to rise in the medium term. Attention should be paid to mid - term buying opportunities [12][15]. - Copper prices are expected to be volatile in the first half of the week and show a clear direction in the second half, with the uncertainty lying in Sino - US trade negotiations [16][17]. - Aluminum is expected to be in high - level oscillation, alumina in weak operation, and cast aluminum alloy in high - level oscillation [20]. - Zinc is expected to be in a relatively strong oscillation [21]. - Nickel and stainless steel are expected to be in a state of oscillation, waiting for clear signals [22]. - Tin is expected to be in high - level oscillation [23]. - Carbonate lithium futures are expected to be in a range of 74,000 - 83,000 yuan/ton with a slightly upward - biased oscillation [23][24][25]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and investors should be cautious [25][26][27]. - Lead is expected to be in high - level oscillation, and option double - selling can be considered to earn premiums [27][28]. - Steel prices are expected to rebound slightly, and iron ore prices are under pressure [30][31]. - Coking coal and coke are expected to be relatively strong in the short term, but the potential negative feedback from steel mills may limit the upside [32]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese have limited upside space [32][33]. - Crude oil prices have rebounded but face the risk of a pull - back, and attention should be paid to the situation in Venezuela [35][36]. - LPG prices are expected to be strong in the short term [37][38]. - PTA - PX prices are expected to be in a strong - biased oscillation following the macro trend [39][40][41]. - MEG - bottle chips are expected to be in a wide - range oscillation, and a short - selling strategy can be considered at high prices [42][43]. - Urea prices are expected to rise with the improvement of the macro situation [43][44]. - PP has an over - supply situation and limited fluctuation space [45][46]. - PE is mainly driven by the macro and cost factors, with a weak self - driving force [47][48]. - Pure benzene and styrene should pay attention to macro trends and crude oil prices, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [49][50]. - Fuel oil's cracking upside is limited, and low - sulfur fuel oil has weak upward driving force [50][51]. - Asphalt prices are affected by cost increases, and short - term waiting or short - selling at pressure levels is recommended [52]. - Soda ash is mainly priced by cost, with limited upward valuation elasticity; glass is in a situation of high - level inventory and weak sales, and the game will continue until close to delivery; caustic soda's short - term maintenance may support prices [52][53][54]. - Pulp and offset paper prices are expected to rise with the improvement of the macro situation [55]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Key events include Sino - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, the speech of Takaichi Sanae, and the slowdown of the US core CPI growth rate in September [1][2]. - The GDP growth rate in the third quarter declined as expected, and the GDP deflator showed a recovery trend. Fiscal policies are being implemented to support the economy, and attention should be paid to Sino - US economic and trade consultations, the "14th Five - Year Plan" draft, and the RMB exchange rate [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1230 on the previous trading day, down 9 basis points. The central parity rate was 7.0928, down 10 basis points [2]. - The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has increased, and the US dollar index has fluctuated. Attention should be paid to the Fed's interest rate meeting [2]. Stock Index - The stock index oscillated upward in the previous trading day, with small - cap stocks performing strongly. The trading volume of the two markets increased by 3303.00 billion yuan [3]. - Affected by the policies of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee and Sino - US trade negotiations, the stock index is expected to be strong in the short term, and small - cap stocks are relatively stronger [4]. Treasury Bonds - The bond market fluctuated and declined last week, and the capital market was loose [5]. - Affected by the "14th Five - Year Plan" goals, the A - share market rose, and the bond market was under pressure. Attention should be paid to low - level layout opportunities [5]. Shipping Index (European Line) - The shipping index (European Line) futures rebounded on October 24, with the main contract EC2512 rising 3.14% [6]. - There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include Sino - US economic and trade consultations, shipping companies' price - support strategies, and port operation disruptions. Negative factors include the expected resumption of shipping in the Red Sea, weak supply - demand fundamentals, and macro risks [7][8][9]. Precious Metals - Precious metals were adjusted last week, but the medium - term upward trend remains unchanged. Silver's short - term squeeze has ended, and the short - term safe - haven sentiment has weakened [12]. - The inventory of gold and silver ETFs decreased last week, and the COMEX and SHFE inventories also changed [13]. Copper - The domestic copper price rose last week, with the Shanghai copper weighted index trading volume and open interest increasing. The external copper price was weaker than the domestic price [16]. - The production and sales of Freeport - McMoRan decreased in the third quarter, and China's anode copper imports were at a low level in 2025. The operating rate of domestic copper rod enterprises decreased, and consumption was weak [17]. - Copper prices are expected to be volatile in the first half of the week and show a clear direction in the second half, with the uncertainty lying in Sino - US trade negotiations [17]. Aluminum and Related Products - The Shanghai aluminum price was strong last week, and the alumina price was weak. The cast aluminum alloy price followed the Shanghai aluminum price [20]. - The macro policy affects the Shanghai aluminum price, and the overseas supply of aluminum has been disturbed. Alumina is in a situation of over - supply, and the cost support is not stable [20]. Zinc - The zinc price was in high - level oscillation last trading day. The external zinc price was supported by low inventory, and the Shanghai zinc price was driven up [21]. - The supply of domestic smelting is stable, and the overseas supply has decreased. The price difference has widened, and the LME zinc price is rising. Attention should be paid to the opening of the export window [21]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The Shanghai nickel and stainless steel prices rose slightly last trading day [22]. - The fundamentals of nickel and stainless steel have not changed significantly. The new regulations on nickel ore quotas in Indonesia are stricter, and the demand for new energy is strong. The price of nickel iron has declined, and the stainless steel price is expected to be in wide - range oscillation [22]. Tin - The Shanghai tin price was in high - level oscillation last trading day, and the fundamentals have not changed. The supply of tin is weaker than the demand, and the short - term support is around 276,000 yuan [23]. Carbonate Lithium - The carbonate lithium futures price rose last week, with the trading volume and open interest increasing [23]. - The spot market of the lithium - battery industry was active last week. The supply of lithium salt is expected to increase in October, and the demand for downstream lithium - battery materials is expected to increase by the end of the year [24][25]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The industrial silicon futures price rose slightly last week, while the polysilicon futures price fell [25][26]. - The supply of industrial silicon is under pressure, and the downstream operating rate is declining. The polysilicon industry is in a situation of production reduction and inventory accumulation [26][27]. Lead - The Shanghai lead price was in high - level oscillation last trading day. The environmental protection policy in Hebei has affected the transportation of lead, and the supply of lead is in a tight - balance situation [27][28]. Black Metals - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil rebounded slightly last week. The profit of steel mills decreased, and the production of crude steel is expected to decline slightly. The price of iron ore is under pressure due to over - supply [30][31]. - The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to be strong in the short term, but the potential negative feedback from steel mills may limit the upside. Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese have limited upside space [32][33]. Crude Oil - The Brent and WTI crude oil futures prices rose last week [35]. - The crude oil market is boosted by geopolitical and macro factors, but there is a risk of over - shooting. Attention should be paid to the situation in Venezuela [36]. LPG - The LPG futures price rose last week. The supply of LPG decreased slightly, and the demand was stable. The port inventory decreased [37]. - The LPG price is expected to be strong in the short term, driven by geopolitical and macro factors [38]. PTA - PX - The PX supply is expected to be high in the fourth quarter, and the PTA supply is expected to increase. The polyester demand is stable, and the terminal demand has improved marginally [39][40]. - The PTA - PX price is expected to be in a strong - biased oscillation following the macro trend [41]. MEG - Bottle Chips - The inventory of MEG in East China ports increased. The supply of MEG decreased slightly, and the demand was stable. The bottle - chip processing fee has been repaired [42][43]. - The MEG price is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation, and a short - selling strategy can be considered at high prices [43]. Urea - The urea futures price rose last week, and the spot price was firm. The inventory of urea enterprises increased slightly, and the port inventory decreased significantly [43][44]. - The urea price is expected to rise with the improvement of the macro situation [44]. PP - The PP futures price fell slightly last week. The supply of PP decreased slightly, and the demand had some elasticity. The inventory decreased [45][46]. - The PP has an over - supply situation and limited fluctuation space [46]. PE - The PE futures price fell slightly last week. The supply of PE is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The inventory increased slightly [47][48]. - PE is mainly driven by the macro and cost factors, with a weak self - driving force [48]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The pure benzene price is expected to be weak due to over - supply and weak demand. The benzene - ethylene supply is expected to increase, and the de - stocking pressure is large [49][50]. - Pure benzene and styrene should pay attention to macro trends and crude oil prices, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [50]. Fuel Oil - The cracking upside of high - sulfur fuel oil is limited, and the low - sulfur fuel oil has weak upward driving force [50][51]. Asphalt - The asphalt price increased last week. The supply of asphalt decreased, and the demand was flat. The inventory structure improved [52]. - Asphalt prices are affected by cost increases, and short - term waiting or short - selling at pressure levels is recommended [52]. Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - Soda ash is mainly priced by cost, with limited upward valuation elasticity. Glass is in a situation of high - level inventory and weak sales, and the game will continue until close to delivery. Caustic soda's short - term maintenance may support prices [52][53][54]. Pulp and Offset Paper - The prices of pulp and offset paper futures rose last week. The spot price of pulp was stable [55]. - Pulp and offset paper prices are expected to rise with the improvement of the macro situation [55].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The steel industry maintains a weak - stable state with dual growth in supply and demand, but price elasticity is limited. It is recommended not to participate in directional speculative trading for now [3]. - For silicon - iron and manganese - silicon, they have low valuations and cost support. It is advisable to go long on silicon - iron on dips [3]. - Regarding coking coal and coke, the expectation of the second round of coke price increase is strengthening, but it is not recommended to chase the rise. Industrial clients can consider selling hedging on part of the spot when the price soars [3]. - For iron ore, it is relatively weak compared to other commodities. Short - term observation is recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Weekly industrial data shows improvement, with social inventory reduction and a weak - stable supply - demand balance. The inventory level is similar to 2023 and higher than last year, suppressing price elasticity. "Silver October" may see a peak in demand, but the market is cautious. Cost - end differentiation may squeeze steel mill profits. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see or oscillatory approach for single - side trading, and look for opportunities to go long on the coil - to - rebar spread below 150 for the 01 contract in arbitrage trading [3]. Silicon - Iron and Manganese - Silicon - They have low production profits, limited supply growth, and cost support due to rising coal prices. High iron - water production drives strong demand. Current silicon - iron inventory is normal, and the futures valuation is not high. With a warm macro - environment, it is advisable to go long on silicon - iron on dips [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - The probability of the second round of coke price increase is high next week. The coking coal spot market is strong, with most prices hitting new highs this year due to supply disruptions and high iron - water demand. However, the high price may face uncertainty in breaking through previous highs, and it may be difficult to implement the coke price increase due to weak downstream demand. It is not recommended to chase the rise, and industrial clients can consider selling hedging [3]. Iron Ore - Commodities are generally rising, but iron ore is relatively weak due to the marginal weakening of supply - demand. Iron - water production is gradually decreasing, and there is a risk of supply - demand surplus in the fourth quarter. The expected shipment from Simandou still restricts the price ceiling. Short - term observation is recommended [3]. 4. Key Data on October 23 Futures Market - **Far - month Contracts**: RB2605 closed at 3128 yuan/ton, up 0.55%; HC2605 at 3271 yuan/ton, up 0.62%; I2605 at 756 yuan/ton, up 0.33%; J2605 at 1896 yuan/ton, up 3.02%; JM2605 at 1325 yuan/ton, up 4.17% [1]. - **Near - month Contracts (Main Contracts)**: RB2601 closed at 3071 yuan/ton, up 0.43%; HC2601 at 3256 yuan/ton, up 0.65%; I2601 at 777 yuan/ton, up 0.39%; J2601 at 1768 yuan/ton, up 4.21%; JM2601 at 1258.5 yuan/ton, up 5.14% [1]. - **Cross - month Spreads**: RB2601 - 2605 was - 57 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; HC2601 - 2605 was - 15 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; I2601 - 2605 was 21 yuan/ton, unchanged; J2601 - 2605 was - 128 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan; JM2601 - 2605 was - 66.5 yuan/ton, up 8.5 yuan [1]. - **Spreads/Ratios/Profits**: The coil - to - rebar spread was 185 yuan/ton; the rebar - to - ore ratio was 3.95; the coal - to - coke ratio was 1.40; the rebar's on - paper profit was - 152.8 yuan/ton; the coking on - paper profit was 94.2 yuan/ton [1]. Spot Market - **Steel Products**: Shanghai rebar was 3230 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; Tianjin rebar was 3130 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; Guangzhou rebar was 3300 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; Tangshan billet was 2950 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3310 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3350 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; Guangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3290 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [1]. - **Others**: Super - special powder at Qingdao Port was 708 yuan/ton, unchanged; PB powder at Rizhao Port was 783 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; Coking coal at Ganqimao Port was 1310 yuan/ton, unchanged; Quasi - first - grade coke at Qingdao Port was 1480 yuan/ton, unchanged; PB powder at Qingdao Port was 782 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [1]. - **Basis**: HC main contract basis was 54 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; RB main contract basis was 159 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; I main contract basis was 38 yuan/ton, unchanged; J main contract basis was - 141.6 yuan/ton, down 58.5 yuan; JM main contract basis was 81.5 yuan/ton, down 49 yuan [1].

Report Overview - Report Date: October 24, 2025 [1][7][13][16][19] - Report Source: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - The overall trend of the black - series commodities in the futures market is characterized by wide - range fluctuations. Different commodities have specific influencing factors, such as demand changes, cost fluctuations, and policy expectations [2][6][8][9][13][16][19] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Trend**: Oscillating repeatedly [2][6] - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of iron ore (12601) closed at 777.0 yuan/ton, up 3.0 yuan or 0.39%. The trading volume and open interest both increased. Among the spot prices, the prices of some imported ores such as Carajás fines (65%) and PB fines (61.5%) rose slightly, while some domestic ores remained stable. The basis and some spreads changed slightly [4] - **News**: The Fourth Plenary Session of the Central Committee released a communiqué, setting the main goals for economic and social development during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period [5] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [5] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Trend**: The apparent demand improved month - on - month, with wide - range fluctuations [2][8][9] - **Fundamentals**: For rebar (RB2601), the closing price was 3,068 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan or 0.59%. For hot - rolled coil (HC2601), the closing price was 3,247 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan or 0.81%. The inventory of the five major steel products decreased, and the apparent demand increased. In September 2025, the production of crude steel decreased year - on - year, while the production of steel products increased year - on - year [9][10][11] - **News**: According to the weekly data of Steel Union on October 23, the production of rebar increased by 5.91 tons, and that of hot - rolled coil increased by 0.62 tons. The total inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 27.41 tons, and the apparent demand increased [10] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil [12] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Trend**: The cost bottom has risen, with wide - range fluctuations [2][13] - **Fundamentals**: The futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese showed different changes. The spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions were also different, and some steel mills' procurement prices changed. The basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads all changed [13] - **News**: According to Iron Alloy Online, on October 23, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions and specifications changed, and some steel mills determined their procurement prices [13] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [15] Coke and Coking Coal - **Trend**: Expectations are fluctuating, with wide - range fluctuations [2][16][17] - **Fundamentals**: The futures prices of coking coal (JM2601) and coke (J2601) both increased. The spot prices of coking coal and coke in some regions changed, and the basis and spreads also changed [17] - **News**: The Fourth Plenary Session of the Central Committee released a communiqué, setting the main goals for economic and social development during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period [17] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal [17] Logs - **Trend**: Oscillating repeatedly [2][19] - **Fundamentals**: The data source is from Wood Union Data, Dongcai Choice, and Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute, but no specific data is provided [20] - **News**: The Fourth Plenary Session of the Central Committee released a communiqué, setting the main goals for economic and social development during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period [22] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [22]

Core Insights - The monitoring of market prices for 50 important production materials across nine categories shows a mixed trend, with 17 products experiencing price increases, 30 seeing declines, and 3 remaining stable in mid-October 2025 compared to late September 2025 [2][3]. Group 1: Price Changes in Major Categories - In the black metal category, significant price declines were observed, with rebar (Φ20mm, HRB400E) dropping by 73.6 yuan to 3110.5 yuan per ton, a decrease of 2.3% [4]. - The non-ferrous metals category saw an increase in electrolytic copper (1), which rose by 4220.0 yuan to 85430.0 yuan per ton, marking a 5.2% increase [4]. - Chemical products experienced varied changes, with sulfuric acid (98%) increasing by 10.1 yuan to 654.7 yuan per ton, a rise of 1.6%, while pure benzene (industrial grade) fell by 290.0 yuan to 5589.3 yuan per ton, a decrease of 4.9% [4]. Group 2: Specific Product Price Movements - In the petroleum and natural gas sector, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) decreased by 113.8 yuan to 4370.9 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.5% [4]. - The coal category showed mixed results, with anthracite coal (washed lump) falling by 43.0 yuan to 874.0 yuan per ton, a decrease of 4.7%, while Shanxi mixed coal (5000 kcal) increased by 18.4 yuan to 635.3 yuan per ton, a rise of 3.0% [4]. - Agricultural products also displayed fluctuations, with yellow corn (second grade) dropping by 145.7 yuan to 2154.3 yuan per ton, a decrease of 6.3%, while soybean meal (with crude protein content ≥43%) increased slightly by 6.0 yuan to 2972.0 yuan per ton, a rise of 0.2% [5]. Group 3: Monitoring Methodology and Scope - The monitoring encompasses a wide range of products, covering 31 provinces and over 300 trading markets, involving nearly 2000 wholesalers, agents, and distributors [8]. - The price monitoring methods include on-site price collection, telephone inquiries, and electronic communications [9]. - The report indicates that the price changes reflect wholesale and sales prices, which include circulation costs, profits, and taxes, differentiating them from factory prices [6].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no explicit industry investment rating provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For steel products, the short - term rebar futures market is expected to trade in a narrow range. The improvement in construction site fund availability is positive for rebar demand. For iron ore, the price will show a range - bound oscillation in the short term, with high demand providing support but overall weak sentiment in the black commodities market. For coking coal and coke, both are expected to have wide - range oscillations in the short term due to supply and demand factors and the poor profitability of the steel industry. For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, they are expected to trade sideways in the short term, lacking clear directional guidance [1][3]. Group 3: Summary by Categories 1. Research Views - **Steel (Rebar)**: The rebar 2601 contract closed at 3068 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton (0.69%) from the previous trading day, with a decrease in positions. Spot prices rose slightly, and trading volume increased. This week, national building materials production decreased by 2.45 tons to 399.58 tons, social inventory decreased by 9.97 tons to 654.01 tons, factory inventory decreased by 0.64 tons to 363.88 tons, and apparent demand increased by 41.43 tons to 410.19 tons. Construction site fund availability reached the highest level since the Spring Festival this year [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The main iron ore futures contract i2601 closed at 774 yuan/ton, up 4.5 yuan/ton (0.6%) from the previous day, with a decrease in positions. Port spot prices rose. Australian and Brazilian shipments increased slightly, and iron - making water production decreased. Steel mills' profitability declined, and 47 port inventories continued to accumulate [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal 2601 contract closed at 1209.5 yuan/ton, up 32.5 yuan/ton (2.76%), with an increase in positions. Spot prices in some areas changed. Supply was tightened due to environmental protection, safety inspections, and accidents. Demand remained high, but the profitability of the steel and coking industries was poor [1]. - **Coke**: The coke 2601 contract closed at 1709.5 yuan/ton, up 37.5 yuan/ton (2.24%), with a decrease in positions. Spot prices at ports rose. Coke production was stable, but profit margins decreased, and some enterprises reduced production. Demand was supported by high iron - making water production, but the weak steel prices affected the market [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: On Wednesday, the manganese silicon futures price strengthened, with the main contract closing at 5810 yuan/ton, up 0.97%. The main contract positions decreased. Market prices in some regions increased. Production stopped falling and rebounded, but downstream demand was low, and inventory reached a new high [3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: On Wednesday, the ferrosilicon futures price strengthened, with the main contract closing at 5538 yuan/ton, up 1.06%. The main contract positions decreased. Market prices in some regions increased. Production decreased slightly, demand was weak, and inventory was at a high level [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads and Basis**: Data on contract spreads (such as 1 - 5 months, 5 - 9 months) and basis for various commodities (rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon) are provided, along with their daily changes. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of rebar was - 52.0, up 5.0 [4]. - **Profit and Price Ratios**: Information on profits (such as rebar's futures profit, long - process profit, short - process profit) and price ratios (such as hot - rolled coil to rebar ratio, rebar to iron ore ratio) and their daily changes are presented. For example, the rebar futures profit was - 106.9, down 5.2 [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - **3.1 Main Contract Prices**: Charts show the closing prices of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][8][9][11][14]. - **3.2 Main Contract Basis**: Charts display the basis of main contracts for various commodities over different time periods, such as the basis of rebar from 2022 - 2026 [16][18][21][23]. - **3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts present the spreads between different contracts (e.g., 10 - 01, 01 - 05) for various commodities over multiple years, like the 01 - 05 spread of rebar from 2001 - 2025 [26][28][29][30][31][33][34][35][37][39]. - **3.4 Inter - commodity Contract Spreads**: Charts show the spreads between different commodities, such as the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread, rebar to iron ore ratio, etc., from 2020 - 2025 [41][42][43][44]. - **3.5 Rebar Profits**: Charts illustrate the futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of rebar from 2020 - 2025 [46][47][49][50]. 4. Black Research Team - The team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, with detailed information about their positions, work experience, and professional qualifications provided [52][53].

Group 1: PPI Overview - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is primarily influenced by production materials, which account for approximately 75% of its weight, compared to 25% for living materials[6][22] - The internal structure of production materials shows that the price changes in extraction, raw materials, and processing industries generally align, with extraction industries exhibiting the highest volatility[8][9] - Living materials display a more diversified price trend across four categories, with food prices often moving contrary to upstream prices[9][10] Group 2: Industry Impact on PPI - The "Three Black and One Color" industries (black metals, petrochemicals, coal, and non-ferrous metals) significantly dominate PPI trends[17][22] - The highest industry weightings affecting PPI include computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing at 10.84%, followed by automotive manufacturing at 7.43%[16][20] - The correlation between crude oil prices and PPI is strong, with a coefficient of 0.86 since 2014, indicating that oil prices are a core factor influencing PPI trends[18][21] Group 3: Risk Factors - Key risk factors include geopolitical risks and unexpected increases in international oil prices, which could further impact PPI trends[25]

大宗商品研究所 黑色研发报告 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DCE01 | 774.0 | 769.5 | 4.5 | I01-I05 | 21.0 | 20.0 | 1.0 | | DCE05 | 753.0 | 749.5 | 3.5 | I05-I09 | 22.0 | 20.0 | 2.0 | | DCE09 | 731.0 | 729.5 | 1.5 | I09-I01 | -43.0 | -40.0 | -3.0 | | 现货 | 昨天 | 前天 | 涨跌 | 折标准品 | 01厂库基差 | 05厂库基差 | 09厂库基差 | | PB粉(60.8%) | 773 | 772 | 1 | 842 | 64 | 84 | 104 | | 纽曼粉 | 777 | 777 | 0 | 842 | 64 | 84 | 104 | | 麦克粉 | 777 | 777 | 0 | 843 | 66 | 86 | 106 | | 金布巴粉(60.5%) | 747 | ...