截至日间收盘，内盘基本金属普涨，仅沪铅和沪锌一同下跌，沪铅跌0.83%，沪锌跌0.73%。沪锡、沪 镍一同涨逾1%，沪锡涨1.73%，沪镍涨1.04%，其余内盘基本金属涨幅均在1%以内。氧化铝主连涨 0.95%，铸造铝主连涨0.62%。 来源：上海有色网 金属市场： 此外，碳酸锂主连大涨7.61%，工业硅主连涨1.56%，多晶硅主连涨4.36%，多晶硅主连盘中最高冲至 61985元/吨，刷新其上市以来的历史新高。欧线集运主连跌0.68%报1699.8。 | 初始 代码 | | 名城 | ●米 | 最新 | 涨幅% | 派式失 | 总量 | 到面 | 製入价 | 英出价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 | | 欧线集运主连 | 4 | 1699.8 | -0.68 | -11.7 | 2.42 万 | 2 | 1699.8 | 1700.3 | | | ecm | | | | | | | | | | | 8 | CLOOY | NYMEX原油 | 中 | 55.89 | 1.38 | 0.76 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The short - term steel futures market is expected to be in a narrow - range consolidation, and the iron ore, coking coal, coke, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon futures markets are expected to fluctuate in the short term [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures market was in a narrow - range oscillation. The rebar 2605 contract closed at 3081 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton or 0.23% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 12,500 lots in positions. Spot prices were stable with a slight decline, and trading volume decreased. The market has expectations for the anti - involution theme, which boosts market confidence. In November, investment data continued to weaken, and crude steel and pig iron production were at low levels. The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the short - term rebar futures market is expected to be in a narrow - range consolidation [1] - **Iron Ore**: The main contract i2605 of iron ore futures rose to 761 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton or 1% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 240,000 lots and an increase of 10,000 lots in positions. Port spot prices increased. Supply from Australia and Brazil increased, while supply from other countries decreased. Iron - making water production decreased, and port inventories continued to increase while steel mill inventories decreased. In the short term, iron ore prices will fluctuate [1] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures market rose. The coking coal 2605 contract closed at 1067.5 yuan/ton, up 6.5 yuan/ton or 0.61%, with an increase of 16,355 lots in positions. Some spot prices decreased, while some increased. Coal mines mainly focus on safety production, supply remains stable, and there is a strong wait - and - see sentiment. Downstream demand is weakening, and the short - term coking coal futures market is expected to fluctuate widely [1] - **Coke**: The coke futures market rose. The coke 2601 contract closed at 1514.5 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton or 0.73%, with a decrease of 2120 lots in positions. Spot prices were stable. Due to heavy pollution warnings, coke production decreased, and supply tightened. Steel mill procurement slowed down, and coke demand decreased. The short - term coke futures market is expected to fluctuate widely [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: On Tuesday, the manganese silicon futures price fluctuated weakly. The main contract closed at 5736 yuan/ton, down 0.69%, with an increase of 5134 lots in positions. Some regional prices decreased. The production cost is still high, but the production reduction rate has slowed down. Steel tenders are ongoing, but terminal steel demand for manganese has decreased, and inventories are at a high level. The short - term manganese silicon futures market is expected to fluctuate [1][3] - **Ferrosilicon**: On Tuesday, the ferrosilicon futures price fluctuated weakly. The main contract closed at 5482 yuan/ton, down 1.01%, with an increase of 716 lots in positions. Some regional prices decreased. The production cost has decreased slightly, and production is gradually decreasing. Steel tenders are ongoing, but terminal steel demand is weak, and inventories are at a high level. The short - term ferrosilicon futures market is expected to fluctuate [3] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads**: Different contracts of various varieties have different spreads and their changes, such as the 1 - 5 month spread of rebar is 9.0 (unchanged), and the 5 - 10 month spread is - 31.0 (down 2.0) [4] - **Basis**: The basis of different contracts of various varieties and their changes are provided, for example, the basis of the 01 contract of rebar is 190.0 (up 3.0) [4] - **Spot Prices**: The latest spot prices and their changes in different regions are given, like the Shanghai spot price of rebar is 3280.0 (up 10.0) [4] - **Profits and Spreads**: Information on profits and spreads of different varieties is presented, such as the rebar futures market profit is 25.1 (down 11.7), and the coil - rebar spread is 165.0 (up 6.0) [4] 3. Chart Analysis - **3.1 Main Contract Prices**: It shows the closing price trends of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][8][9][11][14] - **3.2 Main Contract Basis**: It presents the basis trends of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [16][17][19][20][22] - **3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It shows the spread trends of different inter - period contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [24][26][30][32][33][36][37] - **3.4 Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: It presents the spread trends of different inter - variety contracts, including the coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, coke - iron ore ratio, coal - coke ratio, and double - silicon spread [41][43][45] - **3.5 Rebar Profits**: It shows the profit trends of rebar main contracts, including futures market profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [47][50] 4. Black Research Team Member Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng is the assistant director of the Everbright Futures Research Institute and the director of the black research department, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [53] - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of the resource product research department of the Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in the field of power coal [53] - Liu Xi is a black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [53] - Zhang Chunjie is a black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures operations [54]

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Metal Market - Domestic metal prices fell, with Shanghai tin leading the decline at 3.15%, followed by nickel down 2.36%, and both lead and zinc dropping over 1% [1] - In the black metal sector, all except stainless steel saw price increases, with iron ore rising 1.06% and both coking coal and coke increasing by over 1% [1] - On the international front, basic metals mostly declined, with London aluminum and lead showing slight gains of 0.45% and 0.15% respectively [1] Precious Metals - As of 15:03, COMEX gold fell by 0.46% and silver by 0.96%, while domestic gold and silver prices dropped by 0.6% and 0.3% respectively [1] Macro Environment - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the need to accelerate the establishment of a system to expand domestic demand, including removing unreasonable restrictions on consumption in sectors like automotive and housing [4] - The People's Bank of China conducted a net injection of 18 billion yuan through reverse repos, maintaining the operation rate at 1.40% [5] - Shenzhen's financial office is pushing for high-quality development in the capital market, supporting reforms in the ChiNext board and promoting venture capital initiatives [6] Currency and Economic Indicators - The central parity rate for the RMB against the USD was set at 7.0602, with the USD index stable at 98.28 as investors await key employment and inflation data from the US [7] - Upcoming economic data releases include China's electricity consumption and various manufacturing PMIs from Europe and the US [7][8] Oil Market - As of 15:03, both US and Brent crude oil prices fell by 0.65% and 0.61% respectively, influenced by improved prospects for peace between Russia and Ukraine [9] - Preliminary surveys indicated a potential decline in US crude oil inventories, while distillate and gasoline stocks may have increased [10]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Steel prices opened low and rebounded slightly. The market's pricing of the outbound license policy was relatively neutral. Spot prices rose slightly with the support of stable futures prices. The supply - demand structure was still weak on a weekly basis, and furnace materials were under pressure. There may be some inventory replenishment later, and the current futures price valuation is relatively low, not recommended to chase short [2] - The fundamentals of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are under pressure, with strong upward resistance. Steel prices are under pressure, direct demand is weakening, and there is a large negative feedback pressure. The alloy plants have poor profits but high production, with a large supply - surplus pressure in the medium term. Recently, the supply - demand of silicomanganese is weaker than that of ferrosilicon [2] - The coking coal and coke futures rebounded, but the spot market sentiment was still weak. The third round of price cuts is expected this week. The market is waiting for the improvement of the spot market and the possible start of winter storage replenishment. Indonesia's plan to levy an export tax on coal will have a limited impact on China [4] - Iron ore prices are hard to improve due to rising port inventories. Iron water is expected to stabilize at the end of the month and rebound in January. Steel mills may replenish iron ore inventory before resuming production, and the decline of iron ore prices may slow down. Hold previous short positions and consider taking profits at the lower limit of the range [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On December 15, the closing prices, price changes, and price change rates of far - month and near - month contracts of various varieties such as RB2610, HC2610, etc. were provided. The cross - month spreads, spreads/ratios/profits, and basis of relevant varieties were also given [1] Spot Market - On December 15, the spot prices and price changes of various varieties in different regions were provided, including Shanghai and Tianjin for steel, and different ports for iron ore, coking coal, and coke [1] Steel - The futures price opened low and rebounded slightly. Spot prices rose slightly, and the supply - demand was weak. There may be inventory replenishment later. The current futures price valuation is relatively low [2] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - The fundamentals are under pressure, with strong upward resistance. Steel price pressure leads to weak direct demand, and there is a large negative - feedback pressure. The alloy plants' production is high, and the supply - surplus pressure in the medium term is large. Recently, the supply - demand of silicomanganese is weaker than that of ferrosilicon [2] Coking Coal and Coke - The spot market is weak, with the third - round price cuts expected this week. The futures rebounded after pricing in the 6 - round price - cut expectation but then oscillated. The market is waiting for the improvement of the spot market and the possible winter - storage replenishment [4] Iron Ore - Iron water is still falling and is expected to stabilize at the end of the month and rebound in January. Port inventories are rising, and prices are hard to improve. Steel mills may replenish inventory before resuming production, and the decline of iron ore prices may slow down [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Global crude oil supply and demand are becoming more relaxed, and the progress of the peace talks led by the US has increased concerns about the release of Russian oil supply, causing oil prices to drop to their lowest level this year [1] - Precious metals continued to be strong overnight. The loose trading continued after the Fed meeting, and gold is approaching its historical high. If it breaks through, the strong performance of precious metals is expected to continue [2] - The prices of various metals and commodities are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy changes, and cost factors, showing different trends of rise, fall, or shock [3][4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: EU sanctions on Russia and US sanctions on Venezuela have affected the global oil market. Under the background of loose supply and demand, the potential release of Russian oil supply after the peace talks has put pressure on oil prices [1] - **Natural Gas**: No relevant content provided. - **Coal**: No relevant content provided. - **Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)**: No relevant content provided. - **Carbon Emission Rights**: No relevant content provided. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold is approaching its historical high, and platinum and palladium are at high levels. The relatively low - valued platinum and palladium are favored by long - position funds. The long - term allocation rhythm is clear [2] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper rose and then gave back some gains. The high position volume in the Shanghai copper market suggests that long - position investors should temporarily reduce their positions and wait and see [3] - **Aluminum**: The medium - term upward trend of Shanghai aluminum remains unchanged. Long - position investors can hold their positions based on certain support levels and leave the market if they break [4] - **Zinc**: The LME's position limit plan is expected to end the soft squeeze on the outer market. The internal and external price difference is likely to converge, and it is a good time for cross - market reverse arbitrage. Shanghai zinc is in a short - term rebound [7] Chemicals - **Synthetic Materials** - **Polyethylene (PE)**: The supply of polyethylene is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, with low downstream inventory - building enthusiasm [25] - **Polypropylene (PP)**: The production of polypropylene is expected to increase slightly, and the short - term demand is weak [25] - **Basic Chemicals** - **Methanol**: The methanol market is in a narrow - range fluctuation. The supply - demand situation is difficult to improve significantly in the short term, and it is expected to be weak [22] - **Urea**: The supply - demand pattern of urea remains loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [21] Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils** - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: The weather in South America has improved, and the US soybean data has not been adjusted. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories have decreased. The strategy is to wait for the weather changes in South America and go long on the main contract at low prices [33] - **Palm Oil**: The palm oil market is facing high - inventory pressure and is expected to be neutral or weak in the short term [34] - **Livestock and Poultry Products** - **Pigs**: The supply of pigs is still abundant, and the price is expected to be weak in the short term. The medium - to - long - term price may have a second bottom [38] - **Eggs**: The egg futures price of the 01 contract is leading the market, but the price is still in the previous range. The far - month contract needs to pay attention to chick replenishment and old - hen culling [39] - **Cash Crops** - **Cotton**: The Zhengzhou cotton price has risen significantly. There are rumors that the planting area in Xinjiang will decrease next year. The sales progress is fast, and the demand is stable. The industry can consider hedging opportunities [40] - **Sugar**: The international sugar market supply is sufficient, and the US sugar faces pressure. The production progress in Guangxi is slow, but the production forecast for the 25/26 season is good [41] Others - **Shipping**: The SCFIS European route index has been released, and the 12 - contract is expected to fluctuate. The spot price is expected to rise, but there are risks such as additional supply pressure. The far - month 04 contract is recommended to be shorted on rallies [19] - **Financial Futures** - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market and stock index futures fell yesterday. The market is expected to be in a volatile and slightly upward pattern in the short term, depending on the implementation of domestic economic policies [45] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market is in a warm - up and volatile state. In the short term, it is difficult to break through the volatile adjustment pattern, and attention should be paid to the previous interest rate high points [46]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, with a more dovish tone than expected. The subsequent non - farm data will affect the direction of interest rate cut expectations. Domestically, the government will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, with expanding domestic demand as the primary task for next year [2]. - In the short term, the RMB is likely to be moderately strong against the US dollar, with low - volatility trading. The stock index is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term, and the bond market sentiment is weak, but the downside of the index is limited. The container shipping market for the European route will continue to see a tug - of - war between bulls and bears [5][8][9]. - For commodities, precious metals are expected to be bullish in the medium - long term and volatile in the short term; base metals have different trends, such as copper showing an internal - weak and external - strong pattern, aluminum being oscillatingly strong, and zinc having short - term wide - range fluctuations; energy and chemical products also have diverse trends, like crude oil being weakly volatile, and LPG being oscillating; agricultural products have different outlooks, for example, the supply - demand situation of pigs in the peak season needs verification, and the oil market is weakly operating [16][19][20][23][43][44][83] Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: Pay attention to the release of the US non - farm payroll report. The Fed's interest rate cut decision and domestic economic data, such as the industrial production in November showing resilience while consumption and investment facing pressure, are important factors affecting the market [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: It continues the callback trend. The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose on the previous trading day. In the short term, it is likely to be moderately strong against the US dollar, supported by policy, seasonal factors, and the external environment [3][5]. - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day's stock index closed down, and the trading volume decreased. The fundamentals are still weak, and the market sentiment is cautious. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [6][8]. - **Treasury Bond**: The bond market closed down on Monday, and the market sentiment is weak. The economic data in November shows weakening economic momentum, but the market focus is not on the fundamentals. The policy focus on expanding domestic demand has not yet formed a clear impact on the bond market [8][9]. - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The price increase is less than expected. The market is in a tug - of - war between the support of spot prices and the expectation of future capacity release. In the short term, the market will continue this situation, and different contracts need to pay attention to different factors [9][10][12] Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Platinum & Palladium**: The prices rose sharply at night. The Fed's expected loose monetary policy and the EU's relaxation of the fuel - vehicle ban are beneficial to the demand for platinum and palladium in automobile catalysts. It is recommended to pay attention to the internal - external price difference of platinum [14][16]. - **Gold & Silver**: The prices are in a high - level shock. Focus on the release of the US non - farm payroll report tonight. In the short term, it is expected to be in a high - level shock, and bullish in the medium - long term [17][18][19]. - **Copper**: The fixed - asset investment growth rate declined, and the copper price shows an internal - weak and external - strong pattern. Pay attention to the high - level adjustment risk and support at 90,000 [20][21][22]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The trends are different. Aluminum is expected to be oscillatingly strong in the medium term; alumina is weakly operating; cast aluminum alloy is oscillatingly strong [22][23][24]. - **Zinc**: It is in short - term wide - range fluctuations. The macro environment is favorable, and the fundamentals show tight supply at the mine end and support from inventory de - stocking [25][26]. - **Tin**: It is in a technical correction. Although the supply at the mine end is tight, the downstream demand has not increased significantly. It is expected to enter a wide - range shock stage [26]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is oscillatingly strong. In the short term, it is driven by market sentiment, and in the medium - long term, it has a long - value support from the demand side [27][28]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has limited downside space in the medium - long term; polysilicon is in a wait - and - see situation, with the trading logic mainly based on technical aspects [29][30]. - **Lead**: The inventory accumulation exerts pressure. The price is in a weak shock, and it is expected to oscillate between 16,700 - 17,500 in the short term [31]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: They are oscillatingly weak. After the central economic work conference, the market pricing returns to the fundamentals. The supply may slow down in the reduction, and the demand is seasonally weak. The prices are expected to oscillate within a certain range [32][33]. - **Iron Ore**: The price first fell and then rose. The trading logic returns to the fundamentals. The supply is relatively stable, the demand is in a bottom - grinding stage, and the price is expected to have limited downside space [34]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: They are in a weak consolidation. The supply of coking coal has limited marginal changes, and the demand is weak, resulting in a marginal oversupply. The supply of coke may increase in the future, and the price is likely to continue to decline [36][37]. - **Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese**: They face a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, with limited upside space. The supply and demand are both weak, and the inventory is at a high level [37][38]. Energy and Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The pulp price is in an oscillating state. The high - price pulp has poor sales, and the demand is weak. The offset paper is affected by the pulp price and supply factors. It is recommended to wait and see [40][41]. - **Crude Oil**: The price hit a new low this year due to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks. It is weakly oscillating in the short term, and attention should be paid to the potential support of Brent crude oil at $60 per barrel [42][43]. - **LPG**: It is oscillating. The supply has increased slightly, and the demand is relatively stable. The external market is in an oscillating pattern, and the domestic spot is relatively strong [44][45]. - **PTA - PX**: There is no obvious driving force, and it fluctuates with the cost side. The supply of PX is expected to be high in the fourth quarter, and the demand for polyester will decline in the later stage. The PTA processing fee has limited repair space [46][49]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: The supply negative feedback appears, but it is difficult to reverse the situation. The demand is declining, and the supply has some support signals. The short - term downward driving force is weakened, but the long - term oversupply situation remains [50][52]. - **Methanol**: Maintain the reverse - spread view. The 1 - 5 spread shows a positive - spread pattern, mainly due to market trends and unloading problems. It is recommended to add positions in the 1 - 5 reverse - spread [53][54]. - **PP**: The cost side still has strong support. The supply pressure may be alleviated in January, and the demand has some support. It is necessary to pay attention to the spot situation [56][57]. - **PE**: Pay attention to the spot situation. It shows a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand. The supply pressure is large, and it is difficult to form strong support [58][59]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Styrene's inventory decreased on Monday. Pure benzene shows a near - weak and far - strong pattern, while styrene shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern [60][61][62]. - **Fuel Oil**: The cracking is weak. The supply is stable, the demand is weak, and the high - sulfur cracking is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [63]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The cracking is rising. The supply is tightening, and the cracking has an upward driving force. It is recommended to wait and see [64][65]. - **Asphalt**: The bottom - space is limited, and the winter - storage policies are gradually introduced. The supply is slightly reduced, the demand is weakening, and the cost side is weakly oscillating. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [65][66]. - **Rubber**: The macro atmosphere is warm, but the fundamental benefits are limited. The supply of natural rubber is slightly tightened, the downstream demand support is weakening, and the inventory is still accumulating. It is expected to oscillate [68][70]. - **Urea**: The futures and spot prices tend to converge. The supply is high, and the price is under pressure, but the export policy weakens the downward driving force. It is expected to oscillate [71][72]. - **Soda Ash & Caustic Soda**: They fluctuate at a low level. Soda ash has an increasing over - supply expectation, and glass may have some production - line cold - repairs in the future. Caustic soda has weak fundamentals and is expected to decline weakly [73][74][75]. - **Log**: The short positions left the market intensively, and the price rose and then fell. The price is in a game state, with limited trading value [76][78][79]. - **Propylene**: It is weakly oscillating. The cost pressure is increasing, the supply is relatively loose, and the demand is not strong. It will remain in a weak state before more maintenance [79][80]. Agricultural Products - **Pigs**: The supply - demand situation in the peak season needs verification. The policy may affect the long - term supply, and the short - term is mainly based on fundamentals. The near - month has an over - supply pressure, and the far - month is stronger [82][83]. - **Oilseeds**: The customs - clearance time is extended. The import soybean buying sentiment is reduced, and the domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal have different supply - demand situations. The external market of soybeans is weakly oscillating, and the domestic soybean meal is in a positive - spread trend in the short term [84][85][86]. - **Oils**: They are weakly operating. Palm oil is under supply pressure, soybean oil is affected by soybean auctions, and rapeseed oil is affected by market news. The short - term price center of gravity is moving down [87][88]. - **Cotton**: Pay attention to downstream orders. The domestic cotton supply - demand is expected to be tight in the long term, and the price is relatively strong, but there is short - term pressure. It is recommended to buy on dips [89]. - **Sugar**: The price hits a new low. Affected by the high - supply situation in major producing countries, the sugar price is in a weak state [90][91][92]. - **Eggs**: The chicken culling is in progress. The long - term egg - laying hen capacity is still excessive, but there is a turning point. It is recommended to participate in long positions lightly if betting on a rebound [93]. - **Apples**: The price has a large retracement. The consumption is not smooth, and the inventory is slowly decreasing. It is recommended to buy on dips [94][95]. - **Jujubes**: The new - product supply is sufficient. The new - season jujube production is expected to decrease slightly, and the short - term price has limited downside space. Pay attention to downstream pre - holiday purchases [96][97].

2025年12月15日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：下游需求空间有限，估值偏高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：市场讯息扰动，低位震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：市场讯息扰动，低位震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：主产区工厂检修，价格走势坚挺 | 5 | | 锰硅：港口矿报价坚挺，盘面宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 原木：低位震荡 | 9 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 15 日 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | | | 782. 5 | 2. 5 | 0. 32% | | | 12601 | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | | | 125. 074 | -11.810 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) ...

Report Information - Report Type: Black Metal Weekly Report [1] - Date: December 12, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Variety Research Team [4] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [4] Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Views - The steel market is in a state of weak supply and demand, with prices expected to fluctuate weakly. Suggest considering selling hedging or investment strategies on rebounds [8][33][37]. - The coke and coking coal markets are under pressure from both supply guarantee and imports, with prices likely to continue their downward trend. Investors should prepare for prices to return to levels before mid - July [10][55]. - The iron ore market has an expected increase in supply and weak demand, with prices expected to continue weak and fluctuate. Consider shorting coke and coking coal while going long on iron ore for arbitrage [13][83][84]. Summary by Directory Steel Fundamental Analysis - **Price**: The prices of major rebar and hot - rolled coil spot markets declined significantly in the week of December 12 [14]. - **Blast Furnace and Crude Steel**: The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills decreased for 4 consecutive weeks, and the average daily crude steel output of key enterprises decreased in late November [15]. - **Hot Metal and EAF**: The national average daily hot metal output decreased for 4 consecutive weeks, and the capacity utilization rate of 87 independent EAF steel mills declined [19]. - **Output and Inventory**: The weekly output of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased, the rebar inventory in major steel mills decreased, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased [20]. - **Social Inventory**: The social inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil continued to decline [23]. - **Downstream Demand**: The real estate investment decreased year - on - year, while the output of automobiles, metal - cutting machine tools, and some home appliances increased [23]. - **Apparent Consumption and Margin**: The apparent consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased, and the rebar 2605 contract margin showed an expanded loss [27]. - **Spot Rebar Margin**: The long - process rebar spot margin loss expanded, while the short - process margin turned profitable and increased slightly [32]. Conclusion and Suggestions - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Expected to fluctuate weakly. Consider selling hedging or investment strategies on rebounds. Monitor the impact on steel mill profits, port iron ore inventory, and the decline cycle of the coke and coking coal markets [33][37]. - **Basis**: The rebar basis is expected to narrow with a range of 120 - 240 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil basis is expected to fluctuate in the range of - 40 - 50 yuan/ton [37][39]. Coke and Coking Coal Fundamental Analysis - **Price**: The prices of major coke and coking coal spot markets declined [40]. - **Output and Capacity Utilization**: The daily output and capacity utilization rate of independent coking plants and steel enterprises' coke production decreased after rising [40][41]. - **Inventory and Profit**: The port coke inventory decreased, while the steel enterprises' and coking plants' coke inventories increased. Independent coking enterprises had continuous profits [45]. - **Mine Output and Inventory**: The daily output and开工 rate of 523 sample mines decreased, and the inventory increased [46]. - **Import and Inventory**: The import of coking coal decreased from January to October, and the port and coking plants' coking coal inventories increased, while the steel enterprises' inventory decreased [50]. - **Output**: The national coal and coke production increased from January to October [50]. Conclusion and Suggestions - Expected to continue the downward trend. Investors should prepare for prices to return to levels before mid - July [55]. Iron Ore Fundamental Analysis - **Price and Spread**: The 62% Platts iron ore index and the price of 61.5% PB powder in Qingdao Port decreased. The spreads between different ore grades changed [56]. - **Inventory and Unloading**: The port iron ore inventory increased to a new high since April 2022, and the unloading volume increased. The steel mills' inventory days increased [60]. - **Shipping and Arrival**: The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil changed, and the arrival volume decreased. It is expected that the shipping volume will increase later [64]. - **Domestic Output and Operation**: The domestic iron ore output decreased from January to October, and the capacity utilization rate of mines decreased [68]. - **Port Volume and Cost**: The 5 - day moving average of port iron ore trading volume decreased, and the average hot metal cost remained unchanged [70]. - **Hot Metal Output and Utilization**: The average daily hot metal output decreased to a new low since March, and the demand for iron ore is expected to remain weak [72]. - **Steel Output and Inventory**: The actual weekly output of five major steel products decreased, the consumption decreased, the steel mill inventory increased, and the social inventory decreased [74][75]. - **Transportation Cost**: The main iron ore freight rates mostly decreased, and the Baltic Dry Index declined [77]. Conclusion and Suggestions - **Iron Ore**: Supply is expected to increase, demand remains weak, and prices are expected to continue weak and fluctuate. Consider shorting coke and coking coal while going long on iron ore for arbitrage [83][84]. - **Basis**: The basis between Qingdao Port iron ore spot and the 2605 contract is expected to narrow, with a range of 50 - 110 yuan/ton [84].

【钢材】供需两弱,偏弱震荡 周四钢联周度数据延续供需两弱,铁水产量本周跌至228+,炉料短期依旧承压。日内期现价格下跌,有关于钢材出口的未 经证实的小作文,看后续会否实锤,但在当前敏感的市场环境里,只要没有被辟谣,可能都会带来一波情绪波动的交易 最近板材的去库压力也偏大,总体还是要关注板材的压力释放。当前铁水产量快速下降触发阶段性负反馈,成本支撑弱 12月先测试铁水产量压力,再看冬储补库节点启动。重要会议先后召开,增量亮点不多,新驱动不清晰。 | | | | | | | | | - FAR ANTERN | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 2025/12/12 | | | 国贸期货出品 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | | | | | | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 | F ...