浙商证券（601878）指出，展望"十五五"，全球焦煤供弱需强，供需格局逆转，产量下降，需求向上， 价格有望抬升，叠加成本下行，预计业绩显著改善；焦煤产能刚性，若价格上涨供给难增，价格弹性较 大。年初至今，焦煤价格较2025年一季度均价高269元/吨，焦煤企业成本逐步下行至低位，预计一季度 业绩显著改善。优质主焦煤公司单位产品净利润远低于动力煤公司，未体现焦煤资源的稀缺性。 煤炭股午后走强，截至发稿，中国秦发(00866)涨11.68%，报4.11港元；力量发展(01277)涨8.18%，报 1.72港元；兖矿能源（600188）(01171)涨4.25%，报11.52港元；中国神华（601088）(01088)涨3.62%， 报43.54港元；中煤能源（601898）(01898)涨3.27%，报11.38港元。 华源证券发布研报称，2023年以来，煤价呈现季度阶梯性中枢下行走势，2025Q3是除2023Q4之外，少 有的煤炭均价环比回升(基于秦港5500大卡动力煤平仓价)财报季，在煤价中枢上行背景下，预计2025Q4 板块有望实现业绩延续环比回升，2026Q1煤炭板块有望走出春季行情。供需上，2026年1 ...

Group 1 - Coal stocks showed strong performance in the afternoon, with notable increases in share prices for companies such as Qinfa (up 11.68% to HKD 4.11), Power Development (up 8.18% to HKD 1.72), and Yanzhou Coal (up 4.25% to HKD 11.52) [1] - Huayuan Securities reported that coal prices have shown a quarterly downward trend since 2023, with a potential price rebound expected in Q4 2025, leading to improved performance in the coal sector [1] - By early January 2026, some provinces are pushing for the exit of certain coal supply capacities, which could significantly improve coal supply-demand dynamics and reduce coal inventories [1] Group 2 - Zheshang Securities highlighted a reversal in the global coking coal supply-demand balance, with declining production and increasing demand, which is expected to drive prices up [2] - Coking coal prices have increased by CNY 269 per ton compared to the average price in Q1 2025, while production costs for coking coal companies are gradually decreasing [2] - The net profit per unit of high-quality coking coal companies is significantly lower than that of thermal coal companies, indicating an underappreciation of the scarcity of coking coal resources [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a collective strength in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and coal, leading to an upward movement in related indices [1] - As of the midday close, the Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index increased by 2.5%, the Guozheng Value 100 Index rose by 1%, and the Guozheng Growth 100 Index saw a rise of 0.4% [1] Group 2 - The Growth ETF managed by E Fund tracks the Guozheng Growth 100 Index, which consists of 100 stocks with a strong growth style in the A-share market, with over 65% of its composition in the information technology and materials sectors, particularly with a high proportion in information technology [3] - The Value ETF also managed by E Fund tracks the Guozheng Value 100 Index, which is composed of 100 stocks with a strong value style in the A-share market, focusing on consumer discretionary and financial sectors [3]

【报告导读】在AI投资宏观风险较低、降息周期下全球制造业景气度向上的背景下，会有更多行业的景气度出现改善，投资者可能还是会更加关注增长 率而非股息率。因此在红利策略内部，行业选择上可以更多地向基本面要弹性。跨市场比较来看，港股红利依旧具备性价比，但对于个人投资者而言考虑 到红利税之后可能就没那么明显。 Summary 摘要 1一问红利：2026年是否会有超额？ 2025年红利策略大幅跑输市场，最核心的原因在于市场找到了新的能够突破宏观趋势的成长性：以AI产业投资为代表，以及景气度也开始逐步扩散到与 AI强相关的"泛AI"领域。所以市场的定价驱动力从2022年至2024年上半年的股息率d逐步开始重新转向增长率g。展望2026年，红利策略是否会有相较于全 A的超额收益，核心判断还是在于市场是否依旧以基本面的边际变化作为核心驱动力？基于我们年度策略《世界的中国》对于2026年的基本面展望，在AI 投资宏观风险较低、降息周期下全球制造业景气度向上的背景下，2026年中国的企业盈利修复可能是股票市场的核心驱动力，会有更多的行业景气度出现 改善。在这种宏观背景下，我们认为投资者可能还是会更加关注基本面的边际变化（增长率） ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The scale of stock - type ETFs in the domestic market continues to decline, with a significant reduction of 15 billion shares in broad - based ETFs in a single day. Large - cap index is dragged down by large - order pressing on multiple weight stocks at the end of the session. Meanwhile, the CSI 500 index rebounds after filling the gap, and long opportunities in IH and IC should be continuously monitored [2]. - Enterprises' profits are recovering. In 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China reached 7.4 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%, reversing the three - year decline trend. In December, the profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size changed from a 13.1% decline in November to a 5.3% increase [1]. - A - share major indices closed up in the spot market, with sector indices mostly falling. In the futures market, the basis of stock index futures rebounded, and the current - month contracts were all at a premium. The trading volume of stock index futures decreased, while the IM position increased [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - **Macro - economy**: In 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China was 7.4 trillion yuan, up 0.6% year - on - year. In December, the profit changed from a 13.1% decline in November to a 5.3% increase. Trump plans to raise the tariff on South Korean products from 15% to 25%. The US consumer confidence index in January dropped to 84.5, the lowest since 2014 [1]. - **Spot market**: A - share major indices closed up, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.18% to 4139.9 points and the ChiNext Index rising 0.71%. Sector indices mostly fell, with electronics, communication, and national defense and military industries leading the gains, and coal, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and steel industries leading the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets decreased to 2.9 trillion yuan. US major indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 0.83% and the Nasdaq rising 0.91% [1]. - **Futures market**: The basis of stock index futures rebounded, and the current - month contracts were at a premium. The trading volume of stock index futures decreased, and the IM position increased [1]. Strategy - The scale of stock - type ETFs in the domestic market continues to decline. The share of broad - based ETFs decreased by 15 billion shares in a single day. Pay attention to long opportunities in IH and IC [2]. Charts - **Macro - economic charts**: Include relationships between the US dollar index, US Treasury yields, RMB exchange rate and A - share trends and styles [5][10][12][13]. - **Spot market tracking charts**: Show the daily performance of major domestic stock indices on January 27, 2026, including the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, etc. [12]. - **Stock index futures tracking charts**: Provide information on the trading volume, position, basis, and inter - period spreads of stock index futures such as IF, IH, IC, and IM [14][37][41].

银河期货研究所 2026 年 1 月 28 日 0 / 49 期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货：压力有所减轻 4 | | --- | | 国债期货：股债跷跷板 5 | | 蛋白粕：供应仍有压力 | 盘面走势偏强 6 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：外盘走势现分歧，郑糖底部震荡 6 | | | 油脂板块：油脂有所分化 7 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：北港现货稳定，盘面偏弱震荡 8 | | | 生猪：出栏压力增加 | 现货震荡运行 9 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面底部震荡 10 | | | 鸡蛋：临近节前备货，蛋价有所上涨 10 | | | 苹果：节前走货尚可，苹果价格坚挺 11 | | | 棉花-棉纱：整体变化不大 | 棉价有所支撑 12 | | 钢材：需求边际转弱，钢价延续震荡 14 | | --- | | 双焦：基本面乏善可陈，关注资金扰动 14 | | 铁矿：终端需求低位，矿价震荡运行 15 | | 铁合金：估值偏低存在修复需求，短期震荡偏强 16 | | 金银：特朗普"暗示"弱美元，金银维持强势 17 | | --- | | 铂钯：美元信任危机 贵 ...

根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年12月中国原煤产量为4.4亿吨，同比下降1%；2025年中国原煤累计产 量为48.3亿吨，累计增长1.2%。 上市企业：中国神华（601088）,中煤能源（601898）,山西焦煤（000983）,潞安环能（601699）,淮北矿 业（600985）,平煤股份（601666）,山煤国际（600546）,冀中能源（000937）,陕西煤业（601225）,华 阳股份（600348） 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《中国煤炭产业全景调研及未来发展趋势研判报告（2026版）》 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 2020-2025年中国原煤产量统计图 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the strong performance of coal stocks in the Hong Kong market, with China Qinfa experiencing a significant increase of over 10%, reaching a historical high, and achieving a nine-day consecutive rise [1] - According to Guosheng Securities, the combination of cold waves and short covering has led to a rapid increase in U.S. natural gas futures prices, which may stimulate coal consumption as power plants shift to coal to control fuel costs [1] - The report emphasizes that with the upcoming annual performance disclosures, companies with strong performance are expected to see their stocks perform well, recommending key coal companies such as China Shenhua, Yanzhou Coal Energy, and China Coal Energy [1] Group 2 - Xinda Securities indicates that the overall energy inflation context suggests that the supply-demand balance for coal will remain tight over the next 3-5 years, with high-quality coal companies maintaining high barriers, cash flow, dividends, and yield attributes [1] - The report notes that the recent bottoming of coal prices is likely to drive a revaluation of the sector, presenting both defensive and offensive investment opportunities, and highlights the increased investment value of coal stocks after recent market corrections [1] - The stock performance table shows notable increases in coal-related stocks, with China Tai Fa up 10.05%, Power Development up 4.4%, and China Shenhua up 2.24%, among others [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoint - Recently, the overall supply of coal and coke has increased month-on-month, and the downstream replenishment is nearing the end, so the driving force for coal price increase is not strong. It is expected that the short-term market will fluctuate, and cautious operation is recommended [3] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - Yesterday, the ferrous metal sector generally declined, with coal and coke leading the decline, and the night session continued to be weak. In the spot market, the price of domestic medium and low sulfur coking coal increased by 20 - 100 yuan/ton last week and remained weakly stable this week. The price of imported Mongolian No. 5 raw coal decreased by 50 yuan/ton last week, while the forward price of Australian coal increased by 18 US dollars/ton. The increase of coke price is still under game [3] Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: This month, coal mines have increased production to cope with the output contraction caused by the Spring Festival holiday, which is in line with the seasonal pattern of previous years. It is expected that private coal mines will gradually stop production next week. Last week, the output of raw coal and clean coal in coking coal mines increased to 1.994 million tons and 770,000 tons respectively. The raw coal inventory at the mine end continued to increase, and the clean coal inventory changed from decreasing to slightly increasing. The import volume of Mongolian coal decreased last week, and the port inventory remained at a relatively high level. The overall arrival volume of seaborne coal in January decreased compared with that in December last year [3] - **Demand**: The profitability rate of steel mills is acceptable, currently about 40%. Affected by a steel mill accident, the growth of daily average pig iron output has slowed down. Last week, it was 2.281 million tons, a slight increase of 0.09 million tons compared with the previous week and an increase of 2.65 million tons compared with the same period last year. The procurement of raw materials by downstream coking and steel enterprises is still slow, and the available days of in-plant raw material inventory are generally lower than the same period of previous years. The auction failure rate in the market has increased significantly this week [3]

国内焦煤供给下降，供需健康反转蓄势待发。供给端，焦煤产量下滑，进口难增，企业利润下滑，资本 开支、安全投入或不足;需求端，钢铁、焦炭价差支撑出口，春节后进入3月旺季，需求确定性向上，当 前供需基本面健康;库存上，焦煤库存处于同期低位，中间环节库存低。 全球：预计2025-2030年粗钢产量CAGR为0.9%，焦煤需求平稳提升。印度：预计2025-2030年粗钢产量 CAGR为6.3%，冶金煤消费量CAGR为5.5%，冶金煤进口量CAGR为6.3%。东盟：预计2025-2030年粗钢 产量CAGR为8.8%，冶金煤消费量CAGR为10.7%，冶金煤进口量CAGR为11.5%。中东：预计2025-2030 年粗钢产量CAGR为4%，冶金煤消费量CAGR为4%，冶金煤进口量CAGR为14.8%。非洲：预计2025- 2030年粗钢产量CAGR为2.3%，冶金煤消费量CAGR为2.3%，冶金煤进口量CAGR为0.7%。 投资要点 全球焦煤供弱需强，产能刚性支撑价格弹性。供给端，重点产煤国难有增量，供给整体下滑;需求端， 全球钢铁需求反弹，增量来自发展中国家的长流程炼钢，焦煤是必要原料，海外国家吨钢耗煤量高于中 国，钢 ...