北京商报讯（记者 宋亦桐 周义力）12月23日早盘，伦敦现货黄金再创新高，首次站上4480美元/盎司关 口，盘中最高触及4486.684美元/盎司。国内沪金期货主力连续合约也持续拉升，突破1000元/克整数关 口，盘中最高报1016.86元/克，日内涨幅超2%。 ...

A股小幅高开，沪指涨0.04%，创业板涨0.14%。海南自贸区概念股持续发酵，乳业、光伏、黄金、网络安全题材活跃。稳定币、核聚变、算力硬 件概念股调整。 港股指数高开，恒指上涨0.29%，恒生科技指数涨0.14%。大型科技股多数飘红，美团、百度、京东、阿里巴巴涨幅在1%以内，快手跌3.3%，此 前快手称遭到灰黑产攻击，已报警；金属狂欢！金银铜同创新高，铂钯金全线大涨，黄金股、铜业股等有色金属股继续强势。另外，消费电子概 念股、海运股、电力股走低。 消息面，隔夜美股三大指数收涨，特斯拉、美光科技创新高。 国债期货开盘表现分化，30年期主力合约涨0.08%报111.930元，10年期主力合约涨0.05%报107.990元，5年期主力合约持平于105.840元，2年期主 力合约持平于102.462元。 国内商品期市开盘多数上涨，铂金涨8.30%，钯金涨5.99%，沪金涨2.44%，沪银涨3.21%。，沪镍涨3.06%，集运指数(欧线)涨2.69%，燃油涨 2.06%，焦煤涨1.58%，碳酸锂涨1.05%。 消息面，隔夜国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX黄金期货涨2.13%报4480.60美元/盎司，COMEX白银期 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In 2026, the bull market in precious metals will continue to advance, driven by the dual engines of "financial attributes + industrial demand", with significant differentiation among varieties. Gold will maintain a volatile upward trend, while silver will show a strong pattern driven by both "industry + finance" [2][115][116]. - Gold is expected to have a high of around $5000 per ounce in 2026. It is recommended to use gold as the core strategic defensive variety in the 2026 asset portfolio to achieve risk hedging and value preservation [2][115]. - Silver's price increase space will be more prominent in 2026, with greater room for imagination. Its high - volatility characteristics are expected to continue [2][116]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Gold: Multifaceted Hedge and Long - Term Allocation Value Remains - **Global "Broad Fiscal" Cycle Resonance**: In 2026, major global economies are expected to continue the broad fiscal cycle, with the US, Europe, and Japan showing different fiscal expansion patterns. The US's "Big and Beautiful Act" will increase the deficit, and the deficit rate is expected to rise to about 7.0% in 2026. Germany will drive the mild expansion of the euro - zone's fiscal policy, and Japan will see a moderate increase in the deficit rate. The broad fiscal cycle has intensified concerns about fiscal sustainability, pushing up long - term bond yields and eroding the credit of major currencies, highlighting the value of gold as a "ballast stone" [7][9][10][11]. - **Fed's Interest Rate Cut Cycle**: The Fed will continue the interest rate cut cycle in 2026, with a "stable at first, then rapid" rhythm. Economic and debt pressures will drive the need for a low - interest - rate environment. The change of the Fed chairman will be a key variable, with a dovish new chairman expected to accelerate the interest rate cut process. The Fed's technical balance - sheet expansion and its combination with the US Treasury's debt issuance strategy will inject liquidity and reduce the financing and holding costs of precious metals. However, concerns about the Fed's policy independence remain [24][33][43][44]. - **US Mid - term Elections**: The "pendulum effect" of the 2026 US mid - term elections will reduce trade and geopolitical fluctuations. Although the overall tariff risk is lower, short - term attention should be paid to potential tariff increases in key industries, and the risk of sudden outbreaks in Sino - US trade conflicts still exists [48][52][54]. - **Central Bank Gold Purchases**: Global central banks are continuing to increase their gold reserves, which is a long - term strategic adjustment of the currency reserve structure. Emerging market central banks, as the main buyers, still have room to increase their gold reserves. In 2026, central bank net purchases are expected to remain above 800 tons, providing strong support for the gold market [56][61][62]. - **Gold Investment Scale**: In 2025, gold investment demand was strong, but the current proportion of gold in global asset management is still low, and there is still a large space for growth in gold investment scale [63][64][67]. Silver: Dual - Engine Drive of "Industry + Finance" and Strategic Resource Value Highlights - **Supply Constraints**: Global silver supply growth is sluggish. Structural factors such as the decline in mine grade, the lack of new large - scale silver mines, and the fact that silver is mostly a by - product of other metals limit production growth. In 2026, the production of associated silver may be affected by the smelting restrictions of copper, lead, and zinc [70][72][75]. - **Diversified Demand**: - **Industrial Demand**: The demand for silver in the photovoltaic, automotive, and data center and artificial intelligence industries is expected to continue to grow. The photovoltaic industry will drive silver consumption due to the increase in installed capacity, the automotive industry will see increased demand due to electrification, and the development of data centers and artificial intelligence will also boost silver demand [82][86][87]. - **Investment Demand**: In 2025, the investment demand for silver increased significantly, and the position of the world's largest silver ETF, SLV, continued to rise. There is still room for the position to return to the historical high, which will provide upward momentum for the silver price [96]. - **Supply - Demand Gap**: Since 2021, the global silver market has been in a supply shortage pattern, and this situation is expected to continue in 2026, providing upward momentum for the silver price [69][101][102]. - **Low Inventory**: In 2025, the inventories of major silver markets were at multi - year lows. Low inventory will amplify price fluctuations and may trigger a squeeze - out market [103][105][108]. - **Strategic Resource Attribute**: Major countries around the world have introduced policies to manage silver as a strategic resource, which will have a complex impact on the silver price and supply - demand structure in the short and long term [109][110][111]. 2026 Precious Metals Market Outlook - Gold will maintain a volatile upward trend, and it is recommended to use it as a core strategic defensive variety in the asset portfolio. Silver will show a strong pattern driven by both "industry + finance", with greater price increase potential and high - volatility characteristics [115][116].

Core Insights - The A-share market saw collective gains on Monday, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.69%, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.47%, and the ChiNext Index up by 2.23%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.8617 trillion yuan [2][7] - The banking sector announced a one-time credit repair policy for small personal overdue information under 10,000 yuan, applicable to credit cards, home loans, and consumer loans, emphasizing that full repayment of overdue debts is required for eligibility [3][7] - Precious metals experienced a significant surge, with spot gold surpassing 4,440 USD/oz and spot silver breaking 69 USD/oz, both reaching historical highs. Analysts expect gold prices to rise further to 4,900 USD/oz next year [3][8] Industry Overview - The domestic gaming market is projected to reach new highs in revenue and user scale in 2025, with actual sales revenue expected to be 350.789 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.68%, and a user base of 683 million, growing by 1.35% [9][10] - The mobile gaming sector remains dominant, with actual sales revenue of 257.076 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a 7.92% year-on-year growth, accounting for 72.39% of the total market [10] - The client-side gaming market is expected to see a significant revenue increase of 14.97%, reaching 78.16 billion yuan, driven by popular titles and cross-platform products [11] - The mini-program gaming market is anticipated to grow by 34.39%, with revenue reaching 53.535 billion yuan, highlighting the trend of "APP games miniaturization" [12] - Self-developed games in the overseas market have consistently generated over 100 billion yuan for six consecutive years, with actual sales revenue of 20.455 billion USD in 2025, marking a 10.23% increase [12]

Market Overview - A-shares opened collectively higher with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.04%, Shenzhen Component Index up 0.05%, and ChiNext Index up 0.14% [1] - Sectors such as Hainan, dairy powder, and precious metals showed significant gains [1] Institutional Insights - Huatai Securities suggests a left-side layout focusing on the spring market rally, indicating that uncertainties from U.S. economic data and interest rate hikes have diminished, leading to improved global liquidity and risk appetite [2] - The overall market showed a contraction in trading volume, with a cautious sentiment among institutional investors as the year-end assessment approaches [2] - Recommended sectors include precious metals, automotive, computing, media, and real estate, while favoring small-cap stocks and avoiding high-priced large-cap stocks [2] Industry Developments - CITIC Construction indicates that space photovoltaic technology is transitioning from experimental to commercial acceleration, with P-type HJT batteries expected to gain market penetration post-2026 due to their radiation resistance and lightweight advantages [3] - Perovskite and tandem batteries are anticipated to take on low-orbit constellations and deep space exploration tasks after 2028, owing to their high power-to-weight ratio and radiation resistance [3] - Companies leading in materials and equipment for these technologies are worth monitoring [3] Banking Sector Outlook - Galaxy Securities maintains a positive outlook on the banking sector, highlighting the continued dividend attributes and increased long-term investments from insurance funds, which enhance pricing efficiency and valuation restructuring [4]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices surged to a historic high due to a combination of risk aversion and dovish signals from Federal Reserve officials, with COMEX gold futures rising by 2.13% to $4480.60 per ounce [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - As of the close, the China Gold ETF (518850) increased by 2.08%, while the Gold Stock ETF (159562) rose by 3.78% [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Signals - Federal Reserve Governor Milan indicated that failing to continue interest rate cuts next year could risk triggering an economic recession [1] - He also noted that while a downturn is not expected in the short term, rising unemployment rates should prompt the Fed to maintain a dovish stance, with recent employment data suggesting that unemployment may exceed previous market expectations [1] Group 3: Analyst Insights - Gu Fongda, Chief Analyst at Guosen Futures, stated that the current gold price is primarily supported by expectations of Fed policy and geopolitical uncertainties [1] - There is ongoing divergence within the Fed regarding policy direction, reinforcing market expectations for a prolonged easing cycle [1] - The potential escalation of the Middle East situation and evolving geopolitical dynamics in Europe continue to inject risk premiums into the market, solidifying the investment value of precious metals [1]

Group 1: Precious Metals Market - The spot silver price increased by 2.79% to $69.0304 per ounce, reaching a historical high of $69.4549 during trading [1] - The spot gold price rose by 2.48% to a new record of $4449.18 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures climbed 2.16% to $4482.30 per ounce, also a historical high [1] - The rise in precious metals prices is attributed to heightened geopolitical tensions and market expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2: Oil Market - Light crude oil futures for February 2026 increased by $1.49 per barrel, closing at $58.01, a rise of 2.64% [1] - Brent crude oil futures for February 2026 rose by $1.60 per barrel, closing at $62.07, marking a 2.65% increase [1] Group 3: Economic Policy and Federal Reserve - Federal Reserve Governor Milan warned that without further interest rate cuts next year, the U.S. economy could face recession risks, highlighting a divide within the Fed regarding interest rate policy [2] - Milan emphasized that rising unemployment rates should prompt a shift towards a more dovish stance among Fed decision-makers [2] Group 4: European Union Sanctions on Russia - The EU has decided to extend economic sanctions against Russia for an additional six months, until July 31, 2026 [8] - Sanctions include prohibiting imports of Russian oil and certain petroleum products, as well as excluding several Russian banks from the SWIFT system [8][9] - The EU continues to provide various forms of support to Ukraine and is prepared to impose additional sanctions if necessary [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recent performance of precious metals and energy commodities, noting that gold, silver, and copper have reached historical highs, while oil prices have also increased due to geopolitical tensions and supply dynamics [1][2][3]. Precious Metals - International gold and silver prices have reached historical highs, with gold rising over 2% and silver increasing by more than 3% [1][2]. - The U.S. November CPI was reported at 2.7%, lower than the expected 3.1%, and the core CPI at 2.6%, below the anticipated 3%, which raises questions about inflation but provides room for potential interest rate cuts [2][20]. - The U.S. non-farm payroll data showed an increase of 64,000 jobs, better than the expected 50,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, supporting the expectation of continued monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, which is bullish for precious metals [2][20]. Energy Commodities - Oil prices have seen a significant increase, with the SC night market rising by 2.01%. Saudi Arabia's average daily crude oil exports reached 7.1 million barrels in October, the highest in two and a half years, up from 6.46 million barrels in September [3][14]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding potential sanctions on Russia's energy sector, are influencing oil prices, although the overall trend remains uncertain [3][14]. Agricultural Products - The palm oil market is experiencing upward pressure due to Malaysia's reduction of export tax rates, although inventory levels remain high, and a significant improvement in the supply-demand balance is not expected until December [29]. - The soybean market is under pressure from slow export sales and strong production expectations in South America, leading to a bearish outlook for soybean prices [28]. Financial Markets - The U.S. stock indices have shown an upward trend, with significant market activity and a financing balance increase, indicating a potential long-term bullish trend supported by favorable policies and liquidity [11]. - The bond market is experiencing a general decline, with the 10-year government bond yield rising to 1.845%, reflecting a mixed economic outlook and expectations of future monetary policy adjustments [12][13]. Shipping Index - The European shipping index has shown a strong upward movement, with a reported increase of 8.77% in the EC contract, reflecting positive market sentiment and expectations for price stability in the near future [32][33].

周一（12月22日）纽约时段， 现货黄金价格加速上涨，日内涨幅扩大至2%，有望与现货白银一同录得逾四十年来最强劲的年度表现。 与此同时，地缘政治风险也强化了黄金和白银的避险属性。 据央视新闻，美国上周末在靠近委内瑞拉海岸的国际水域对一艘受制裁船只实 施拦截行动。 央视新闻报道还提到，据乌克兰国家安全局消息人士称，其特种部队无人机首次在地中海打击了俄油轮，油轮受损严重。 现货黄金5分钟图 现货黄金日线图 分析认为，最新一波上涨源于交易员押注美联储将在2026年降息两次，美国总统特朗普也公开主张较宽松的货币政策，利率下行通常会给 不用支付利息的贵金属提供支撑。 具体行情显示，现货黄金日内一度涨超2.3%报每盎司4442.22美元，现货白银一度涨3.3%报每盎司69.46美元， 双双刷新历史纪录，年内 金银分别累涨69%和137% ，势将创下1979年以来的最大年度涨幅。 Pepperstone Group Ltd.策略师Dilin Wu表示："今日的上涨，主要由围绕美联储降息预期的提前布局所推动，并在年底流动性偏薄的背景 下被放大。" 她指出，美国就业增长放缓以及11月通胀数据低于预期，均支撑了美联储进一步降息的 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that recent economic data from the US and key events such as interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan have alleviated previous market uncertainties, leading to improved global liquidity expectations and a recovery in risk appetite [1] - Global stock markets have shown a recovery trend after an initial decline, with notable performance in metal commodities [1] - Despite the year-end assessment approaching, institutional investor sentiment remains cautious, resulting in a contraction in trading volume in the AH market, with a prevailing judgment of market volatility from timing models [1] Group 2 - The recommendation is to maintain a strategy of "light index, heavy structure," suggesting to look for opportunities in low-position sectors while preparing for the spring market rally [1] - Industry recommendations include precious metals, automotive, computing, media, and real estate sectors [1] - On the style front, there is a positive outlook for small-cap stocks, with advice to avoid high-position large-cap stocks and prioritize opportunities in lower-position sectors [1]