Group 1: Glass Market Dynamics - The glass market is currently facing challenges with a slowdown in supply-demand recovery, despite the typical demand-driven period in summer and autumn and the effectiveness of domestic consumption support policies [1] - Short-term inventory rebound is putting pressure on supply-demand digestion, making market trends more complex due to intertwining policy expectations and short-term consumption drivers [1] - In July and August, domestic glass prices showed a trend of rising first and then falling, with July's rapid price rebound driven by policy expectations not translating into significant improvements in the actual fundamentals [5] Group 2: Soda Ash Market Dynamics - The soda ash market is showing positive signs with a trend towards recovery after short-term adjustments from both supply and demand sides, as indicated by a two-week decline in inventory [3] - In August, the market shifted focus from expectations to reality, with spot prices falling leading to a contraction in supply, increased factory maintenance, and a decrease in industry operating rates [3][5] - As of last week, soda ash production enterprise inventory decreased by approximately 150,000 tons compared to peak levels, laying a good foundation for the consumption season in September [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The short - term index faces adjustment pressure, but the long - term trend is to go long on dips. The bond market is expected to be volatile in the short term, and interest rates may decline in the long term. For most commodities, the market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and macro - economic conditions, and different trading strategies are recommended for different commodities [3][5]. Summaries by Categories Macro - Financial Stock Index - **News**: The State Council aims to boost the sports industry, the central bank conducts a 10000 - billion - yuan reverse repurchase, US Treasury yields decline, and Goldman Sachs predicts a potential rise in gold prices [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH in different periods are provided, showing negative values [3]. - **Trading Logic**: After the previous rise, high - level sectors like AI are adjusting, and trading volume is shrinking. However, policy support for the capital market remains, so the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market**: On Thursday, the main contracts of TL, T, and TF rose, while TS declined. The central bank conducts a 10000 - billion - yuan reverse repurchase, and the State Council promotes sports consumption. The central bank conducts a 2126 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase with a net withdrawal of 2035 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy**: The manufacturing PMI improved in August but is still below the boom - bust line. The central bank maintains a loose monetary policy. Interest rates may decline in the long term, but the bond market may be volatile in the short term [5]. Precious Metals - **Market**: Shanghai gold and silver, and COMEX gold and silver all declined. The US 10 - year Treasury yield is 4.17%, and the US dollar index is 98.29 [6]. - **Outlook**: US employment data is weak, and Fed officials are dovish. The labor market has weakened. Gold and silver prices are supported at high levels. It is recommended to go long on dips, with reference price ranges provided [6][7]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market**: Copper prices declined. LME copper inventory decreased, while domestic social inventory increased. The price is supported by tight supply and approaching peak season. Reference price ranges for Shanghai and LME copper are provided [9]. Aluminum - **Market**: Aluminum prices declined. Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory is relatively low, and demand is improving. The price is expected to be volatile, with reference price ranges provided [10]. Zinc - **Market**: Zinc prices declined. Zinc ore is in the seasonal inventory - building stage, and the market is in an oversupply situation. The price is expected to be in a low - level volatile pattern [11][12]. Lead - **Market**: Lead prices declined slightly. The supply of lead is expected to decrease marginally, and the price is expected to strengthen [13]. Nickel - **Market**: Nickel prices oscillated. The short - term macro - environment is positive, and the price is supported by various factors. It is recommended to go long on dips, with reference price ranges provided [14]. Tin - **Market**: Tin prices oscillated narrowly. Supply is tight due to slow复产 and planned maintenance, while demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be volatile [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market**: The price of lithium carbonate contracts adjusted weakly, but the A - share lithium battery sector strengthened. Supply and demand are improving. It is recommended to pay attention to overseas raw material supply, with a reference price range provided [16]. Alumina - **Market**: Alumina prices declined. Supply and demand are in an oversupply situation, but the price decline space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference price range provided [17]. Stainless Steel - **Market**: Stainless steel prices declined. The market is in a consolidation pattern due to factors such as the decline in nickel prices and weak demand [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market**: Cast aluminum alloy prices declined. The market is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and the price is expected to be high - level due to cost support and increased market activity [20][21]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market**: Steel prices showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend but were under pressure. Demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. If demand does not improve, prices may decline further [23][24]. Iron Ore - **Market**: Iron ore prices rose. Overseas shipments increased, and demand decreased. The price is expected to be volatile in the short term, and the focus is on the recovery of demand in the peak season [25][26]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Prices are stable, and the market is generally stable. Supply is high, and inventory pressure is increasing. The price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term and may follow the macro - environment in the long term [27]. - **Soda Ash**: Prices are stable, and inventory pressure is slightly increasing. The price is expected to be volatile in the short term and may gradually rise in the long term, but the upward space is limited [28]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices declined. The "anti - involution" sentiment has faded, and prices are moving towards fundamentals. Manganese silicon may remain weak, and ferrosilicon depends on downstream demand. It is recommended to wait and see for speculative trading [29][30][31]. Industrial Silicon - **Market**: Industrial silicon prices rose slightly. Supply is increasing, and demand is insufficient. The price is expected to be weakly volatile, with a reference price range provided [32][33]. Polysilicon - **Market**: Polysilicon prices rose slightly. The market is in a "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern. The price is expected to be highly volatile, and it may rise further if positive news emerges [34][35]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market**: Rubber prices oscillated strongly. The price is affected by weather and supply - demand expectations. It is recommended to have a long - term bullish view and a short - term bullish strategy, with specific trading suggestions provided [37][40]. Crude Oil - **Market**: Crude oil and related product prices declined. Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and the macro - environment is bearish, the price is undervalued, and it is a good time for left - hand side layout [41]. Methanol - **Market**: Methanol prices declined. Supply is in an oversupply situation, but the downward space is limited due to potential factors. It is recommended to wait and see [42]. Urea - **Market**: Urea prices were stable. Supply pressure has eased, but demand is weak. The price is expected to be in a range, and it is recommended to consider long positions on dips [43]. Styrene - **Market**: Styrene spot prices rose, and futures prices declined. The BZN spread is expected to repair, and the price may rebound after the inventory - reduction inflection point [44]. PVC - **Market**: PVC prices rose slightly. Supply is strong, demand is weak, and the export outlook is weak. It is recommended to consider short positions [46]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market**: Ethylene glycol prices rose. Supply is still in an oversupply situation, and the port inventory is expected to increase in the medium term. The price may decline in the medium term [47]. PTA - **Market**: PTA prices declined. Supply has changed from inventory - building to inventory - reduction, and demand is improving. It is recommended to consider long positions on dips following PX [48][49]. Para - Xylene - **Market**: Para - xylene prices declined. The load is high, and the price is supported by low inventory and improving downstream data. It is recommended to consider long positions on dips following crude oil [50]. Polyethylene - **Market**: Polyethylene prices declined. Supply is limited, and demand may increase in the peak season. The price is expected to oscillate upward [51]. Polypropylene - **Market**: Polypropylene prices declined. Supply pressure is high, and demand is in a seasonal rebound. The market has no prominent contradictions in the short term [52]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market**: Pig prices generally declined. Supply is expected to be weak in September, but demand and other factors may support the price. It is recommended to wait and see and consider far - month reverse spreads [56]. Eggs - **Market**: Egg prices were stable or rose. Supply is stable, and demand is increasing due to festival stocking. The price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term, but there may be pressure in the medium term [57]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market**: US soybeans rose slightly, and domestic soybean meal prices rebounded. The supply of global protein raw materials is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to be in a range. It is recommended to consider long positions on dips at the low - cost range [58][59]. Oils and Fats - **Market**: Oils and fats oscillated. Palm oil exports in Malaysia increased, and production decreased. The price is supported by various factors and is expected to be strongly volatile. It is recommended to be bullish on palm oil in the fourth quarter [60][61]. Sugar - **Market**: Sugar prices declined. Domestic sugar imports increased, and there is an expectation of increased production in Guangxi. The long - term view is bearish, and the price trend depends on the international market [62][64]. Cotton - **Market**: Cotton prices oscillated. Global cotton production and inventory are expected to decline. The price is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term due to potential improvement in fundamentals [65][66].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The commodity market is generally weak. Although steel product prices show a slightly stronger oscillation, they are under overall pressure. With the end of the parade, steel mills in Tangshan have resumed production, and the export volume increased slightly last week but remains in a weak oscillation pattern. The demand for steel is weak in the peak season, and the profits of steel mills are gradually shrinking. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively restored, prices may decline further. The raw material end is more stable than the finished product end, and attention should be paid to the potential impact of safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions. It is recommended to focus on the recovery rhythm of terminal demand and the support of the cost end for the prices of finished products [4]. - The price of iron ore is expected to oscillate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the subsequent shipping pressure and the recovery speed of molten iron after the important nodes. The price of ferroalloys continues to squeeze out the over - estimated value. The market is gradually shifting from trading on expectations to trading on the real - world situation, and the prices will move closer to the fundamentals. For manganese silicon, the oversupply situation remains unchanged, and the price is expected to remain weak before mid - October. For silicon iron, attention should be paid to changes in downstream terminal demand and relevant policies [7][11][12]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with the supply pressure exceeding the demand support. The price of polysilicon continues to be in a pattern of "weak reality, strong expectation", with high volatility. Glass is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and its price adjustment space is limited. The price of soda ash is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the price center may gradually rise in the long term, but the upside space is restricted by the supply - demand contradiction [15][16][18][19]. Summary by Directory Steel - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3117 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton (0.354%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 222,549 tons, a net increase of 896 tons. The main contract position was 1.736432 million lots, a net decrease of 18,381 lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3313 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton (0.424%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 24,459 tons, a net decrease of 301 tons. The main contract position was 1.283425 million lots, a net increase of 34,343 lots [3]. - **Market Analysis**: The rebar apparent demand remains weak, and the inventory accumulation pressure intensifies. The hot - rolled coil production reduction is significant, the apparent demand decreases significantly month - on - month, the overall demand is moderately weak, and the inventory continues to rise. The steel price is under obvious pressure due to high production and insufficient demand. The profits of steel mills are gradually shrinking, and the disk shows weak characteristics [4]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 791.50 yuan/ton, with a change of +1.87% (+14.50), and the position increased by 41,053 lots to 507,000 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 821,300 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 785 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 43.04 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 5.16% [6]. - **Market Analysis**: The overseas iron ore shipping volume has increased recently. The daily average molten iron output decreased significantly, mainly in North China. The port inventory has increased, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory has decreased. The price of iron ore is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the subsequent shipping pressure and the recovery speed of molten iron [7]. Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron - **Price and Position Data**: On September 4, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed down 0.03% at 5730 yuan/ton. The main contract of silicon iron (SF511) closed down 0.43% at 5496 yuan/ton [9][10]. - **Market Analysis**: The prices of ferroalloys continue to squeeze out the over - estimated value. The manganese silicon market is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to remain weak before mid - October. The supply - demand fundamentals of silicon iron have no obvious contradictions, and attention should be paid to downstream demand changes and relevant policies. It is recommended that speculative positions remain on the sidelines [11][12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) closed at 8515 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.29% (+25). The weighted contract position decreased by 3039 lots to 481,904 lots. The main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) closed at 52,195 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.07% (+35). The weighted contract position decreased by 3866 lots to 316,993 lots [14][16]. - **Market Analysis**: The price of industrial silicon is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with supply pressure exceeding demand support. The price of polysilicon continues to be in a pattern of "weak reality, strong expectation", with high volatility and strong influence from news [15][16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Inventory Data**: The spot price of glass in Shahe was 1130 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; in Central China, it was 1070 yuan, also unchanged. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.05 million weight cases, a net increase of 484,000 weight cases (+0.77%) month - on - month. The spot price of soda ash was 1190 yuan, up 15 yuan from the previous day. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8221 million tons, a net increase of 2800 tons (+0.15%) [18][19]. - **Market Analysis**: Glass is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and its price adjustment space is limited. The price of soda ash is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the price center may gradually rise in the long term, but the upside space is restricted by the supply - demand contradiction [18][19].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillating weakly [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [2] - Ferrosilicon Manganese: Oscillating [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4] 2. Core Views of the Report - Glass demand remains weak with high inventory and insufficient production cuts, leading to a weak price trend; soda ash supply is high and demand may weaken further with new capacity coming online, so the price is under pressure [1] - The supply - demand surplus in the ferrosilicon manganese and ferrosilicon industries is obvious, and losses are needed to suppress production release, with prices expected to follow the sector's fluctuations [3] 3. Summary by Directory Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: Glass futures oscillated, and downstream procurement was cautious; soda ash futures had a narrow - range oscillation, and downstream demand was mainly for replenishing inventory [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Glass demand is weak, high inventory pressure persists, and production cuts are insufficient; soda ash supply is high, and demand may weaken further as new capacity is put into operation [1] - **Strategy**: Glass and soda ash are both expected to oscillate weakly [2] Ferrosilicon Manganese and Ferrosilicon - **Market Analysis**: Ferrosilicon manganese futures fell 0.21% to 5732 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 5650 - 5730 yuan/ton; ferrosilicon futures fell 0.14% to 5520 yuan/ton, and the spot price was slightly reduced [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Both ferrosilicon manganese and ferrosilicon have increased production and sales and reduced inventories, but the supply - demand surplus is still obvious, and losses are needed to suppress production release [3] - **Strategy**: Both ferrosilicon manganese and ferrosilicon are expected to oscillate [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the entire black building materials sector is "oscillating" [5]. - For individual varieties, the mid - term outlooks for steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, coking coal, glass, soda ash, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon are all "oscillating" [7][8][9][11][12][13][15][16][17]. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The impact of the military parade on the sector is gradually diminishing. As coal - coking and steel enterprises resume production, the demand for furnace materials is increasing, especially for iron ore. However, the overall upward movement of the sector's prices depends on the start of the replenishment logic under continuous demand improvement. The increasing expectation of a US interest rate cut may further boost the sector sentimentally [1]. - Overall, the terminal demand during the peak season needs to improve for the sector to rise again. Attention should also be paid to the boosting effect of strengthened policy expectations [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Overall Situation of the Black Building Materials Sector - The intraday futures prices of the sector rose and then fell, and the night - session continued the oscillating and pressured trend, mainly due to the impact of the military parade on the supply - demand side of the industrial chain. After the parade, some enterprises resumed production, increasing the demand for furnace materials, especially for iron ore. The overall upward movement of the sector's prices requires the start of the replenishment logic under continuous demand improvement. The increasing expectation of a US interest rate cut may further boost the sector [1]. 2. Analysis of Different Elements and Products Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments and arrivals at 45 ports increased month - on - month, in line with expectations. The small - sample hot metal production decreased slightly, and steel enterprises are expected to resume production. This week, iron ore ports reduced inventory, the number of ships at berth increased, factory inventories decreased, and the total inventory decreased slightly. The fundamentals support the price, and it is expected to oscillate in the future. The fundamentals of scrap steel have no prominent contradictions. The low profit of electric furnaces due to pressured finished - product prices and the tight supply lead to an expected short - term price oscillation [2]. Carbon Element - After the military parade, steel mills will enter the peak production season, and the demand will support the short - term price to remain oscillating. After the parade, coal mines will gradually resume production but are unlikely to reach the previous high. The upcoming peak demand season for downstream products still supports the coking coal price [2]. Alloys - Manganese ore and coke prices are weak, and the cost support for manganese silicon is insufficient. The market supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and there is still significant downward pressure on the price in the medium - to - long - term. Attention should be paid to the reduction range of raw material costs. The current cost of ferrosilicon has some support, but the supply - demand relationship will become looser in the future, and the price center will tend to decline in the medium - to - long - term. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of the coal market and the adjustment of electricity costs in the main production areas [2]. Glass - The current demand for glass is weak, but there are expectations for the peak season and policies. After the mid - stream reduces inventory, there may be another round of oscillations. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to decline while oscillating [2][12]. Soda Ash - The supply surplus pattern of soda ash remains unchanged. After the futures price declines, spot - futures trading volume increases slightly. It is expected to oscillate widely in the future. In the long - term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [2][15]. 3. Analysis of Individual Varieties Steel - The spot market trading volume of steel is generally weak. Affected by the military parade, steel production and demand both decreased, and inventory continued to accumulate. The market is cautious about the peak - season demand. After the parade, the hot metal production may return to a high level, and attention should be paid to the replenishment demand during the peak season, which may support the futures price [7]. Iron Ore - The overseas mine shipments and arrivals at 45 ports increased month - on - month, in line with expectations. The small - sample hot metal production decreased slightly, and steel enterprises are expected to resume production. The port inventory decreased, the number of ships at berth increased, factory inventories decreased, and the total inventory decreased slightly. The fundamentals support the price, and it is expected to oscillate in the future [7]. Scrap Steel - The supply of scrap steel decreased this week. Due to the pressured finished - product prices, the electric - furnace profit is low, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in both electric furnaces and blast furnaces decreased. The factory inventory decreased slightly, and the inventory - available days are at a low level. The fundamentals have no prominent contradictions, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [9]. Coke - The expectation of the eighth round of price increases has basically failed, and the market sentiment is bearish. After the parade, steel mills will enter the peak production season, and the demand will support the short - term price to remain oscillating [9][11]. Coking Coal - After the military parade, coal mines will gradually resume production but are unlikely to reach the previous high. The upcoming peak demand season for downstream products still supports the coking coal price. Attention should be paid to regulatory policies, coal mine resumption, and Mongolian coal imports [11][12]. Glass - The demand for glass is weak, but there are expectations for the peak season and policies. After the mid - stream reduces inventory, there may be another round of oscillations. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to decline while oscillating [12]. Soda Ash - The supply surplus pattern of soda ash remains unchanged. After the futures price declines, spot - futures trading volume increases slightly. It is expected to oscillate widely in the future. In the long - term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [13][15]. Manganese Silicon - The prices of manganese ore and coke are weak, and the cost support for manganese silicon is insufficient. The market supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and there is still significant downward pressure on the price in the medium - to - long - term. Attention should be paid to the reduction range of raw material costs [16]. Ferrosilicon - The current cost of ferrosilicon has some support, but the supply - demand relationship will become looser in the future, and the price center will tend to decline in the medium - to - long - term. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of the coal market and the adjustment of electricity costs in the main production areas [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market is weak, with the prices of finished steel products showing a weak and volatile trend. The demand for finished products is clearly weak, the profits of steel mills are gradually shrinking, and the weak characteristics of the futures market are becoming more prominent. If the demand cannot be effectively improved in the future, the prices may continue to decline. The raw material end is more resilient than the finished products, and attention should be paid to the potential impact of safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions. It is recommended to continuously track the progress of terminal demand recovery and the support of the cost end for the prices of finished products [3]. - The price of iron ore is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term. The recent increase in overseas mine shipments may bring pressure, and the strong raw material prices continue to affect the profits of steel mills. The fundamentals of finished products are relatively weak, and the futures market shows that raw materials are stronger than finished products. The impact of production restrictions on iron water production in Tangshan steel mills needs to be observed [6]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon continue to be weak. The over - supply pattern of manganese silicon remains unchanged, and its price is expected to remain weak until mid - October. There is no obvious contradiction in the supply - demand fundamentals of ferrosilicon, and attention should be paid to changes in downstream terminal demand and relevant policies. Hedging funds are advised to seize hedging opportunities [9][11]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term, with the supply pressure from resuming production greater than the demand support. The price of polysilicon continues to be in a pattern of "weak reality, strong expectation", with high volatility and possible upward exploration if favorable news is released [14][15]. - The price of glass is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, and its long - term trend depends on policy support and demand improvement. The price of soda ash is expected to be volatile in the short term, and its price center may gradually rise in the long term, but the upward space is limited due to the contradiction between supply and demand [17][18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3117 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.064%) from the previous trading day, with an increase of 3683 tons in registered warrants and 41530 hands in the main contract positions. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3298 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.15%), with no change in registered warrants and an increase of 22073 hands in the main contract positions [2]. - **Spot Market**: The aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3200 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it was 3240 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong was 3340 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shanghai, it was 3350 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The production of rebar increased, demand improved slightly but remained weak, and inventory continued to accumulate. For hot - rolled coils, both supply and demand declined, and inventory continued to increase. The overall steel production is high, demand is insufficient, and steel prices are under great pressure [3]. Iron Ore - **Futures Market**: The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 777.00 yuan/ton, up 0.71% (+5.50), with an increase of 12928 hands in positions to 46.59 million hands. The weighted position was 77.35 million hands [5]. - **Spot Market**: The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 775 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 46.52 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.65% [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Overseas shipments increased, with a slight decline in Australian shipments and a significant increase in Brazilian shipments. The daily average pig iron production decreased, the profitability of steel mills continued to decline, port inventory decreased slightly, and steel mill inventory decreased. The apparent demand of five major steel products increased, but inventory accumulation did not slow down significantly [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Futures Market**: On September 3, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed down 0.21% at 5732 yuan/ton; the main contract of ferrosilicon (SF511) closed down 0.14% at 5520 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see for speculative trading [8][9]. - **Market Sentiment and Fundamentals**: The "anti - involution" sentiment in the market declined, and the prices of ferroalloys continued to squeeze out the over - estimated value. The inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils continued to accumulate, and the market was worried about the demand in the peak season. The over - supply pattern of manganese silicon remained unchanged, and its production continued to increase. There was no obvious contradiction in the supply - demand fundamentals of ferrosilicon [10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main contract (SI2511) was 8490 yuan/ton, up 0.24% (+20), with a decrease of 6216 hands in weighted positions to 484943 hands [13]. - **Spot Market**: The price of 553 non - oxygenated silicon in East China was 8950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 421 was 9400 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the main contract was 460 yuan/ton and 110 yuan/ton respectively [13]. - **Fundamentals**: The over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient demand problems remained. The supply increased, and the demand from downstream industries was divided. The price was expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, with a range of 8100 - 9000 yuan/ton [14]. - **Polysilicon** - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main contract (PS2511) was 52160 yuan/ton, up 0.55% (+285), with an increase of 2757 hands in weighted positions to 320859 hands [14]. - **Spot Market**: The average price of N - type granular silicon was 48.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type dense material was 50 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type re -投料 was 51.5 yuan/kg, unchanged. The basis of the main contract was - 660 yuan/ton [15]. - **Fundamentals**: It continued the pattern of "weak reality, strong expectation". The supply increased, the inventory of silicon wafers decreased, and the spot price increased. The price was expected to be highly volatile, with possible upward exploration if favorable news was released [15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Shahe was 1130 yuan, unchanged; in Central China, it was 1070 yuan, unchanged. The overall market was stable, and the transaction was average [17]. - **Inventory**: As of August 28, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 62.566 million heavy boxes, down 1.63% month - on - month and 11.31% year - on - year, with a decrease of 0.5 days in inventory days [17]. - **Fundamentals**: The production remained high, the inventory pressure decreased, and the downstream real estate demand did not improve significantly. The price was expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, and its long - term trend depended on policy support and demand improvement [17]. - **Soda Ash** - **Spot Market**: The spot price was 1175 yuan, up 10 yuan from the previous day. The overall price of enterprises fluctuated little, with individual price cuts [18]. - **Inventory**: As of September 1, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8193 million tons, down 2.58% from last Thursday, with a decrease in both light and heavy soda ash inventories [18]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply increased, the inventory pressure decreased, and the downstream glass industry's operating rate changed. The price was expected to be volatile in the short term, and its price center may gradually rise in the long term, but the upward space was limited due to the supply - demand contradiction [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the current economic situation from the perspectives of economic growth and inflation. In terms of economic growth, the production side shows a mixed trend with high - level power plant consumption but declines in blast furnace and tire operating rates in some areas, while the demand side sees a marginal decline in building material prices. Regarding inflation, most industrial product prices are falling, with the CPI affected by the drop in pork prices and the PPI showing a complex situation of price changes in different industrial products [1][3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Economic Growth: Marginal Decline in Building Material Prices 3.1.1 Production: High - level Power Plant Consumption - Power plant consumption remains at a high level. On September 2, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generating groups was 922,000 tons, a 2.6% decrease from August 26. On August 26, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 2.469 million tons, a 0.3% increase from August 19. With the end of the summer peak approaching, power plant consumption in eight coastal provinces is expected to remain high [4][11]. - The blast furnace operating rate has declined locally. On August 29, the national blast furnace operating rate was 83.2%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from August 22, and the capacity utilization rate was 90.0%, a 0.3 - percentage - point decrease. In Tangshan, the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills was 88.6%, a 3.9 - percentage - point decrease from August 22, affected by environmental protection restrictions [4][17]. - The tire operating rate has declined slightly. On August 28, the operating rate of truck full - steel tires was 63.8%, a 0.9 - percentage - point decrease from August 21, and the operating rate of car semi - steel tires was 72.8%, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease. However, the operating rate of looms in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions has continued to rise [4][19]. 3.1.2 Demand: Marginal Decline in Building Material Prices - At the beginning of the month, the sales volume of new houses in 30 cities has rebounded month - on - month. From September 1 - 2, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 189,000 square meters, a 19.0% increase from August, a 54.4% increase from September last year, but a 21.8% decrease from September 2023. The rebound trend needs further confirmation. Sales in first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities have increased year - on - year [4][24]. - The retail trend in the auto market is stable. In August, retail sales increased by 3% year - on - year, and wholesale sales increased by 12% year - on - year [4][24][25]. - Steel prices have generally fallen. On September 2, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil decreased by 2.1%, 1.8%, 1.5%, and 0.9% respectively compared to August 26. Steel inventories are slowly accumulating [4][31]. - Cement prices have returned to a downward trend. On September 2, the national cement price index decreased by 1.3% compared to August 26, with prices in the East China and Yangtze River regions falling more than the national average. The year - on - year decline in cement prices has widened [4][32]. - The decline in glass prices has widened. On September 2, the active futures contract price of glass was 1,142 yuan per ton, a 3.5% decrease from August 26. The demand side is significantly affected by the real estate market, and the implementation effect of policies remains to be seen [4][38]. - The container shipping freight index has stabilized locally. On August 29, the CCFI index decreased by 1.6% from August 22, while the SCFI index increased by 2.1%. The freight rate of the US route has stopped falling and rebounded, mainly due to shipping companies' capacity control [4][40]. 3.2 Inflation: Most Industrial Product Prices are Falling 3.2.1 CPI: Pork Prices Fall Below 20 Yuan - Pork prices have fallen below 20 yuan. On September 2, the average wholesale price of pork was 19.8 yuan per kilogram, a 1.0% decrease from August 26. In September, the theoretical supply of live pigs is expected to increase [4][46]. - The agricultural product price index is the second - lowest in the same period in the past five years. On September 2, the agricultural product wholesale price index increased by 1.1% compared to August 26. Different agricultural products have different price trends [4][51]. 3.2.2 PPI: Most Industrial Product Prices are Falling - Oil prices have risen slightly. On September 2, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were $69.5 and $65.6 per barrel respectively, a 3.0% and 3.7% increase from August 26. The uncertainty of Russian oil supply supports oil prices [4][56]. - Copper and aluminum prices have rebounded. On September 2, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum increased by 0.7% and 0.2% respectively compared to August 26. However, the domestic commodity index has turned down month - on - month [4][59]. - Industrial product prices have turned down month - on - month. Since September, most industrial product prices have fallen, with coking coal and coke having relatively large declines. Most industrial product prices are also down year - on - year [4][63].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of soda ash is expected to be abundant, demand to stabilize, and prices to remain under pressure overall, but there may be variables with anti - involution hype. It is recommended to buy on dips for the short - term soda ash main contract. - The glass market is expected to continue consolidating. It is recommended to buy on dips for the glass main contract. The glass supply remains at a low level, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs. The inventory reduction trend remains unchanged, and there is a possibility of a restocking market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price: 1276 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan from the previous day; glass main contract closing price: 1135 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan from the previous day. - Soda ash and glass price difference: 141 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan from the previous day. - Soda ash main contract open interest: 1420969 lots, down 10459 lots from the previous day; glass main contract open interest: 1324537 lots, down 3230 lots from the previous day. - Soda ash top 20 net open interest: - 295010 lots, down 16840 lots from the previous day; glass top 20 net open interest: - 203082 lots, down 350 lots from the previous day. - Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts: 5082 tons, down 118 tons from the previous day; glass exchange warehouse receipts: 2026 tons, down 5 tons from the previous day. - Soda ash September - January contract spread: - 3 yuan, down 3 yuan from the previous day; glass September - January contract spread: - 195 yuan, down 16 yuan from the previous day. - Soda ash basis: - 102 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan from the previous day; glass basis: - 79 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan from the previous day [2]. Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash: 1165 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan from the previous day; Central China heavy soda ash: 1300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. - East China light soda ash: 1250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; Central China light soda ash: 1200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. - Shahe glass sheets: 1056 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan from the previous day; Central China glass sheets: 1090 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [2]. Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate: 82.47%, down 6.01 percentage points from the previous week; float glass enterprise operating rate: 75.68%, up 0.34 percentage points from the previous week. - Glass in - production capacity: 15.96 million tons/year, unchanged from the previous week; glass in - production production lines: 224, up 1 from the previous week. - Soda ash enterprise inventory: 181.93 tons, down 4.82 tons from the previous week; glass enterprise inventory: 6256.6 ten - thousand weight boxes, down 104 ten - thousand weight boxes from the previous week [2]. Downstream Situation - Cumulative value of new construction area in real estate: 352060000 square meters, up 48416800 square meters; cumulative value of real estate completion area: 250340000 square meters, up 24673900 square meters [2]. Industry News - Multiple soda ash production enterprises have reduced production, shut down for maintenance, or reduced their loads, including Inner Mongolia Boyuan Yingen Chemical, Jiangsu Jingshen Chemical, Shandong Haitian Biological Chemical, etc. - The manufacturing PMI in August was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month [2]. Viewpoint Summary - Soda ash: Supply is expected to be loose, demand to stabilize, and prices to remain under pressure. The inventory reduction process may be repeated. - Glass: Supply remains at a low level, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the inventory reduction trend remains unchanged. There is a possibility of a restocking market [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "neutral" rating for the overall black building materials industry, with a mid - term outlook of "sideways" [6]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As the military parade approaches, production restrictions and cut - backs in steel mills and the coal - coke sector have intensified. After the parade, there is a high possibility of production resumption, and the industry may still have upward potential. The subsequent price fluctuations of industry products will be dominated by the production resumption logic after the parade, and the macro and policy expectations at home and abroad may also affect price volatility [1][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments and arrivals at 45 ports increased month - on - month as expected. Iron water production decreased slightly, and there is an expectation of further decline as steel mills in Hebei enter maintenance. However, the impact is limited, and iron ore demand may return to a high level after the parade. Port inventories decreased, and the total inventory declined slightly. The price is expected to move sideways. For scrap steel, the fundamental contradictions are not prominent. With low EAF profits and tight resources, the short - term price is expected to fluctuate [2]. 3.2 Carbon Element - As the parade approaches, coke production restrictions are stronger than those of steel mills. The short - term coke supply remains tight, and the price has support before the parade. After the parade, the recovery of iron water production needs to be monitored. The coking coal market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short term [2]. 3.3 Alloys - For ferromanganese - silicon, the current inventory pressure of manufacturers is acceptable, and the cost provides short - term price support. However, the medium - to - long - term supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and the price has significant downward pressure. For ferrosilicon, the inventory pressure of manufacturers is not large, and the cost supports the price in the short term. But the supply - demand relationship will become looser in the future, and the price center will tend to decline [2]. 3.4 Glass - The current demand is weak, but policy expectations are strong, and raw material prices are firm. After the post - trading of delivery contradictions, the far - month contract still offers a premium. In the medium - to - long - term, market - based capacity reduction is needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to decline sideways [3][13]. 3.5 Soda Ash - The supply - surplus situation remains unchanged. After the decline in the futures price, spot - futures trading volume increased slightly. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, and the price center will decline in the long term to promote capacity reduction [6][16]. 3.6 Specific Product Analyses - **Steel**: The cost support is strong, and the futures price has stopped falling and stabilized. Although the current fundamentals are weak, after the parade, iron water production may return to a high level, and the potential for phased restocking during the peak season may drive the price up [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The fundamentals are healthy, and the price is expected to move sideways. Overseas mine shipments and arrivals increased, iron water production decreased slightly, and inventories decreased [8][9]. - **Scrap Steel**: The fundamentals have no prominent contradictions. With low EAF profits and tight resources, the short - term price is expected to fluctuate [10]. - **Coke**: The voices for price hikes are weakening, and the futures price is moving sideways. The short - term supply remains tight, and the price has support before the parade. After the parade, the recovery of iron water production needs attention [12]. - **Coking Coal**: The market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short term. After the parade, the impact of short - term disturbances will disappear, and future regulatory policies, coal mine production resumption, and Mongolian coal imports need to be monitored [12][13]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The inventory pressure of manufacturers is acceptable, and the cost provides short - term support. However, the medium - to - long - term supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and the price has significant downward pressure [16][17]. - **Silicon Iron**: The inventory pressure of manufacturers is not large, and the cost supports the price in the short term. But the supply - demand relationship will become looser in the future, and the price center will tend to decline [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Overseas, concerns about government fiscal conditions have intensified, leading to multi - year high yields on UK and French government bonds, a decline in the pound and euro, and a rebound in the US dollar. The global risk appetite has cooled. In China, the official manufacturing PMI in August improved slightly to 49.4 but remained below the boom - bust line for the fifth consecutive month. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption in September. The extension of the 90 - day tariff truce between China and the US and the increased expectation of US monetary easing have reduced short - term external risks and increased domestic risk appetite. The market is focused on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations, with a marginal increase in short - term macro - upward drivers. [2] - For different assets: the stock index is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; government bonds are expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, and cautious observation is advised; the black commodity sector is expected to be slightly weaker in the short term, and cautious observation is recommended; the non - ferrous sector is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; the energy and chemical sector is expected to rebound in the short term, and cautious observation is recommended; precious metals are expected to oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term, and cautious long positions are recommended. [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Macro**: Overseas, concerns about government finances have led to high bond yields in the UK and France, a decline in the pound and euro, and a rise in the US dollar. A US federal appellate court's ruling on tariffs and the assessment of Trump's tariff policy have cooled global risk appetite. In China, the August official manufacturing PMI improved slightly but was below the boom - bust line. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption. The extension of the tariff truce and US easing expectations have increased domestic risk appetite. The market focuses on domestic policies and easing expectations, with short - term macro - upward drivers strengthening. [2] - **Stock Index**: Affected by sectors such as communications, electronics, and consumer electronics, the domestic stock market declined slightly. The August official manufacturing PMI improved slightly but was below the boom - bust line. Policy support and reduced external risks have increased domestic risk appetite. The market focuses on domestic policies and easing expectations. Short - term cautious observation is recommended. [3] - **Government Bonds**: Government bonds are expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, and cautious observation is advised. [2] Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel futures and spot markets continued to be weak on Tuesday, with a slight increase in trading volume. Real - world demand continued to weaken, but there may be a seasonal improvement in September - October. Supply remained high, with the average daily crude steel output of key enterprises in August at 2.115 million tons, a 2% month - on - month increase, and a 4% increase in steel inventories. Although supply may decline temporarily due to production restrictions, steel mills are likely to resume production next week. Coke price increases were blocked and instead decreased. The steel market is likely to remain weak in the short term. [4] - **Iron Ore**: On Tuesday, the spot price of iron ore rebounded slightly, and the futures price oscillated. Due to production restrictions, steel mills' demand decreased, and they mainly replenished inventory on a just - in - time basis. Last week, the pig iron output was over 2.4 million tons but decreased significantly. The global iron ore shipment volume increased by 2.41 million tons to 35.56 million tons this week, and the arrival volume increased by 1.827 million tons. The supply of mainstream Australian powder was stable, but traders were reluctant to sell at low prices. The port inventory decreased slightly by 120,000 tons. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate in the short term. [6] - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Tuesday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat. The price of 6517 silicon manganese in the northern market was 5,650 - 5,700 yuan/ton, and in the southern market was 5,680 - 5,730 yuan/ton. Manganese ore prices were weak. Inner Mongolia's production was stable, with new high - silicon production this month and planned new capacity in October. Ningxia's production was stable, and some southern factories were in losses. The price of 72 - grade silicon iron in the main production areas was 5,150 - 5,300 yuan/ton, and 75 - grade was 5,750 - 5,950 yuan/ton. Although silicon iron profits were compressed, electricity costs provided support, and producers were reluctant to cut production. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term. [7] - **Soda Ash**: On Tuesday, the main soda ash contract oscillated. Last week, the weekly production of soda ash decreased. With new capacity coming online, supply pressure remained, and the oversupply situation persisted, with new installations planned for the fourth quarter. Demand was stable week - on - week, but overall support from downstream demand was weak. Profits decreased week - on - week, and the industry was in a loss. Soda ash is expected to oscillate in the short term due to high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. [8] - **Glass**: On Tuesday, the main glass contract oscillated. Last week, glass production was stable, with an increase in the start - up rate and the number of production lines. Terminal real estate demand remained weak, but downstream deep - processing orders increased in mid - August, and overall demand was stable. Profits increased slightly. Glass is expected to oscillate in the short term due to stable supply and limited demand growth. [8] Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: On Tuesday, concerns about the UK economy and rising global bond yields led to a rise in the UK's long - term borrowing costs and a fall in the pound against the US dollar. With the decline of factors such as export rush, over - installation in the photovoltaic industry, and the diminishing marginal effect of the trade - in policy, domestic copper demand will weaken. However, the expected Fed rate cut in September may boost copper prices temporarily. [9] - **Aluminum**: On Tuesday, the closing price of aluminum rose slightly but fell slightly at the end of the session, with a decrease in open interest of 7,398 lots. Aluminum inventory increased to 623,000 tons, exceeding the previous expectation of 600,000 tons. LME aluminum inventory decreased by 1,450 tons, reaching a neutral level. In the medium term, the upside potential of aluminum prices is limited, but in the short term, there is still a peak - season expectation, and there is no strong downward driver, so it is expected to oscillate. The recent rise in gold prices may have a limited positive impact on copper and aluminum prices. [10] - **Aluminum Alloy**: Currently, the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the production cost of recycled aluminum plants is rising. It is still the off - season for demand, and manufacturing orders are growing slowly. Considering cost support, the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but the upside is limited due to weak demand. [10] - **Tin**: The combined start - up rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi decreased by 0.21% to 59.43%. Some smelters in Yunnan were under maintenance, and the supply of tin ore was tight in reality but expected to ease. The import of African tin ore decreased in July due to transportation and power issues. Terminal demand was weak, and the inventory decreased by 117 tons to 9,161 tons last week. As prices rose, downstream procurement slowed down. Tin prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, supported by smelter maintenance and peak - season expectations but restricted by high - tariff risks,复产 expectations, and weak demand. [11] - **Lithium Carbonate**: On Tuesday, the main lithium carbonate contract 2511 fell 4.3% to a settlement price of 74,180 yuan/ton, with an increase in open interest of 19,567 lots to a total of 761,400 lots. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 75,250 yuan/ton, a 1,750 - yuan decrease. The price of Australian lithium spodumene was 860 US dollars/ton, a 20 - dollar decrease. The production profit of purchasing lithium spodumene was 50 yuan/ton. Lithium carbonate inventory is gradually decreasing, and it is expected to oscillate widely, with a short - term bearish and long - term bullish outlook. [11] - **Industrial Silicon**: On Tuesday, the main industrial silicon contract 2511 rose 1.13% to a settlement price of 8,515 yuan/ton, with a decrease in open interest of 12,531 lots to 491,200 lots. The price of oxygen - blown 553 industrial silicon in East China was 9,100 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan increase. The futures price was at a discount of 630 yuan/ton. The price difference between 421 and 553 in East China was 300 yuan/ton. With polysilicon prices oscillating at a high level, industrial silicon is expected to oscillate in the short term. [12] - **Polysilicon**: On Tuesday, the main polysilicon contract 2511 rose 3.97% to a settlement price of 51,985 yuan/ton, with a decrease in open interest of 8,457 lots to 318,000 lots. The price of N - type polysilicon was 50,500 yuan/ton, a 1,000 - yuan increase. The price of P - type cauliflower - shaped polysilicon was 30,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of N - type silicon wafers was 1.25 yuan/piece, a 0.01 - yuan increase. The price of single - crystal Topcon battery cells (M10) was 0.292 yuan/watt, unchanged. The price of N - type modules (centralized): 182mm was 0.66 yuan/watt, unchanged. The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 6,870, a decrease of 10 lots. Rumors of a "industry restructuring plan" by GCL Technology have increased market expectations of capacity integration. Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, facing a game between strong expectations and weak reality. [13] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Technical buying and supply disruptions drove the rebound of crude oil prices, with the largest increase since the end of July. Ukraine's attacks on Russian refineries have affected crude oil supply, and the US will study sanctions on Russia this week. The Cushing inventory is still low. However, attention should be paid to the OPEC+ production decision this Sunday. [14][15] - **Asphalt**: As crude oil prices rise, the asphalt futures price also increases, driven by cost factors in the short term. Currently, asphalt is still weak, with a slightly decreasing basis. The social inventory has not decreased significantly, and the factory inventory has decreased slightly. Profits have recovered slightly, and the start - up rate has increased significantly. In the future, crude oil prices may be affected by OPEC+ production increases, and the follow - up increase of asphalt prices needs to be monitored. [15] - **PX**: Although crude oil prices are rising, the increase in downstream petrochemical products is limited. The low start - up rate of PTA has kept the PX price weak, supported only by maintenance plans. The PX supply is still tight, with the PXN spread decreasing slightly to 251 US dollars and the PX foreign price rebounding to 848 US dollars. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, waiting for changes in PTA installations. [15] - **PTA**: Recently, the start - up rate of PTA has dropped to a seasonal low due to environmental protection requirements and low processing fees. The high basis has weakened, and the processing fee has recovered, indicating a high possibility of supply recovery. The demand growth has slowed down, with a downstream start - up rate of only 89.8%. PTA is expected to oscillate narrowly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the recovery risks of crude oil and downstream demand. [16] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Due to problems with overseas installations, the import forecast has been low recently, leading to a significant decrease in port inventory to 440,000 tons. The load of syngas - based production units is already high, and there is limited room for further increase. The impact of the petrochemical industry's capacity adjustment on ethylene glycol is relatively limited. It is recommended to go long at low prices in the short term, but attention should be paid to the recovery of downstream start - up rates and crude oil cost fluctuations. [16] - **Short - Fiber**: The price of short - fiber rose with the sector but then declined slightly. The overall strength of the polyester sector is still insufficient. Terminal orders have increased seasonally, and the start - up rate of short - fiber has rebounded slightly, with a limited increase in inventory. Further inventory reduction depends on the continuous recovery of terminal orders. In the medium term, short - fiber is expected to follow the polyester sector and may be shorted on rallies. [16] - **Methanol**: The restart of inland installations and concentrated arrivals have increased supply pressure. As the port price falls, the reflux window has opened, providing some support to the spot market. MTO installations are planned to restart, and the traditional downstream peak season is approaching, indicating a marginal improvement in the fundamentals. However, the oversupply situation remains, and high inventory continues to suppress prices. Methanol prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. [17] - **PP**: The start - up rate of PP installations has increased, and new capacity has been put into operation, resulting in a record - high weekly supply. The downstream start - up rate has increased slightly, but demand growth is weak. Although there is policy support, the downside is limited. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly. [17] - **LLDPE**: Currently, maintenance has relieved some supply pressure, and downstream demand is gradually increasing, with a decrease in inventory. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. However, as maintenance ends and supply recovers, pressure will increase, and attention should be paid to the synchronous growth of demand. The price is expected to oscillate. [17] Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: Overnight, the November soybean contract on the CBOT closed at 1,040.00, a decrease of 14.50 or 1.38% (settlement price: 1,041.00). As of August 31, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 65%, lower than the market expectation of 68%. The pod - setting rate was 94%, and the leaf - falling rate was 11%. The weekly export inspection volume of US soybeans as of August 28, 2025, was 472,914 tons, higher than the market expectation. Since the beginning of this crop year, the cumulative export inspection volume has reached 49.763188 million tons, higher than the same period last year. [19] - **Soybean Meal/Rapeseed Meal**: The CBOT soybean futures price is likely to be under pressure in the short term. In China, the increase in imported soybean sales and the high procurement and start - up rate of oilseeds in the third quarter have increased the inventory pressure. The basis is difficult to repair in the short term. The rapeseed meal market is also weak, and attention should be paid to the trade policy between China and Canada. [20] - **Oils**: Overnight, the CBOT soybean oil futures price rose by 1% due to the decline in soybean oil inventory. The BMD palm oil futures price may open higher, supported by strong palm oil exports from Malaysia and a weakening ringgit. According to high - frequency data, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 15.37% (AmSpec) and 30.53% (SGS) in August 2025 compared with the same period last year. Ukraine has imposed a 10% export tax on soybeans and rapeseeds until January 1, 2030, and the tax rate will decrease by 1% annually until it reaches 5%. [20] - **Corn**: New - season corn has started to be harvested in Liaoning, and farmers are reluctant to sell at low prices. The futures market has rebounded recently, which is beneficial to market sentiment. This year, there is no pressure from a large - scale arrival of corn at ports, and the inventory at ports and downstream enterprises is low. The estimated cost of new - season corn in North China is 1,960 - 2,020 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang, it is at least 2,100 yuan/ton. Referring to the policy - supported wheat market, it is expected that during the new - season corn harvest period, farmers will be reluctant to sell when the price in North China is below 2,220 yuan/ton and in the northern ports is below 2,130 yuan/ton, and traders will be more willing to store corn. It is estimated that the opening price of the main C2511 contract may be slightly higher than last year, and if there are no unexpected weather risks during the harvest, the main operating range of the opening - price market may be 2,150 - 2,250 yuan/ton. [21] - **Pigs**: In September, the supply and demand of pigs will both increase. In August, large - scale farms increased pre