Domestic Demand - In December 2025, retail sales of passenger vehicles in China were 2.296 million units, down 13% year-on-year, compared to a 7% decline in November[2] - Retail sales of major home appliances decreased by 28.5% year-on-year as of January 2, 2026, but improved by 8.4 percentage points from the previous value[2] - The volume of postal express deliveries decreased by 0.9% year-on-year as of January 4, 2026, a decline of 2 percentage points from the previous value[2] - Daily box office revenue for movies was 53.55 million yuan, down 26.3% year-on-year as of January 9, 2026[2] Industrial Sector - The Nanhua Industrial Index rose by 2.4% this week, with the black materials index up 2.7% and the non-ferrous metals index up 5.3%[4] - Daily average pig iron production and cement clinker capacity utilization rates increased, while the apparent demand for major steel products declined[4] - New home sales in 30 major cities fell by 38.4% year-on-year as of January 9, 2026, a decrease of 7.4 percentage points from the previous week[4] External Demand - Port cargo throughput increased by 1.1% year-on-year as of January 4, 2026, but this was a decline of 0.9 percentage points from the previous value[4] - Container throughput at ports rose by 7.7% year-on-year, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous value[4] - South Korea's export value increased by 13.4% year-on-year in December, up 5 percentage points from November[4] Price Trends - The price of rebar futures increased by 0.7%, while spot prices rose by 0.6% this week[4] - Coking coal futures prices increased by 7.2%, with Shanxi coking coal spot prices remaining stable[4] - The agricultural product wholesale price index decreased slightly by 0.4% this week[4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black - series commodities are in a bottom - range oscillation pattern, sensitive to news changes. The actual terminal demand for steel is still weak, and in the short - term, the macro level is in a policy vacuum period. Attention should be paid to the de - stocking of hot - rolled coils, the strengthening of "dual - carbon" policies, and their marginal impact on the supply - demand pattern of the steel industry [3]. - For iron ore, the supply is entering the off - season, and after the resumption of iron - making, the supply - demand is expected to improve marginally. The price is expected to oscillate at a relatively high level in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of steel mill restocking and iron - making production [6]. - For silicon iron and manganese silicon, the bullish sentiment in the commodity market may continue, but the short - term high - volatility risk should be guarded against. The future market is mainly affected by the overall market sentiment, cost push from manganese ore for manganese silicon, and supply contraction for silicon iron [10][11]. - For coking coal and coke, the bullish sentiment in the commodity market may continue, but the short - term high - volatility risk should be guarded against. The static supply - demand structure is balanced, and the price is expected to oscillate in the current range in the short - term [16][17]. - For industrial silicon, it is under inventory accumulation pressure, and the price is expected to be under pressure, with attention to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [20]. - For polysilicon, the price is expected to consolidate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the actual spot transactions and official policies [22]. - For glass, the price is boosted by production line cold - repairs and cost increases, but limited by high inventory and weak terminal orders. It is recommended to wait and see [25]. - For soda ash, the supply pressure persists, demand is weak, and the overall weak pattern remains unchanged [27]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Quotes** - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3144 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton (- 0.75%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 55,633 tons, with no change from the previous day. The position of the main contract was 1.7149 million lots, a decrease of 66,939 lots. The spot prices in Tianjin and Shanghai decreased by 10 yuan/ton and 30 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3294 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton (- 0.69%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 112,237 tons, an increase of 3536 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.4171 million lots, a decrease of 23,805 lots. The spot prices in Lecong and Shanghai decreased by 20 yuan/ton [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoints** - Hot - rolled coil production increased slightly, demand continued to weaken, and inventory decreased slightly. Rebar production increased against the season, demand declined, and inventory accumulated slightly. The black - series is in a bottom - range oscillation pattern, sensitive to news, and attention should be paid to hot - rolled coil de - stocking and "dual - carbon" policies [3]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes** - The main contract (I2605) of iron ore closed at 814.50 yuan/ton, with a change of + 0.18% (+ 1.50). The position changed by + 3210 lots to 639,900 lots. The weighted position was 963,700 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 826 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 63.83 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 7.27% [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoints** - Supply: The year - end shipping rush of mines ended, and the overseas shipping volume decreased. The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil both declined, and the shipping volume from non - mainstream countries also decreased. The near - end arrival volume increased. Demand: The average daily pig iron output continued to rise, some blast furnaces resumed production, and the utilization rate of previously resumed blast furnaces recovered. The profitability of steel mills decreased slightly. Inventory: Port inventory continued to accumulate, and steel mill inventory increased but was still at a low level, with some restocking demand [6]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - **Market Quotes** - On January 9, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM603) closed up 0.20% at 5904 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5740 yuan/ton, with a basis of 26 yuan/ton. The main contract of silicon iron (SF603) closed down 0.64% at 5632 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5800 yuan/ton, with a basis of 168 yuan/ton [8]. - Last week, the manganese silicon price fluctuated sharply, and the silicon iron price also fluctuated greatly, and both finally declined [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoints** - The bullish sentiment in the commodity market may continue, but the short - term high - volatility risk should be guarded against. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is still loose, and that of silicon iron is basically balanced with marginal improvement. The future market is affected by the overall market sentiment, cost push from manganese ore for manganese silicon, and supply contraction for silicon iron [10][11]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Quotes** - On January 9, the main contract of coking coal (JM2605) closed up 0.46% at 1195.5 yuan/ton. The main contract of coke (J2605) closed down 0.96% at 1748.0 yuan/ton. Different spot prices and their basis with the main contracts are provided [13]. - Last week, the coking coal price rose significantly, and the coke price also rose [14][15]. - **Strategy Viewpoints** - The rise of coking coal last week was driven by the positive commodity market atmosphere and the news of production capacity reduction. The bullish sentiment in the commodity market may continue, but the short - term high - volatility risk should be guarded against. The static supply - demand structure is balanced, and the price is expected to oscillate in the current range in the short - term [16][17]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Quotes** - On Friday, the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2605) closed at 8715 yuan/ton, up 2.11% (+ 180). The weighted contract position decreased by 13,806 lots to 379,975 lots. The spot prices of different grades remained unchanged, with corresponding basis [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoints** - The production in December was stable, the number of open furnaces in the southwest was at a low level, and the supply improvement was limited. The polysilicon production plan in January continued to decline, and if the production cut of a leading enterprise is implemented, it will impact the demand for industrial silicon. The demand from organic silicon is relatively stable. The price is expected to be under pressure, and attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [20]. Polysilicon - **Market Quotes** - On Friday, the main contract of polysilicon (PS2605) closed at 51,300 yuan/ton, down 4.31% (- 2310). The weighted contract position decreased by 7303 lots to 97,286 lots. The spot prices of different types of polysilicon decreased, with a basis of 3700 yuan/ton [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoints** - The anti - monopoly meeting minutes and market adjustment affected the price. The spot price increased before the Spring Festival, but the downstream is waiting and watching. If the production cut of a leading enterprise is implemented, the supply pressure will be relieved. The price is expected to consolidate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to actual spot transactions and official policies [22]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Quotes** - Glass: On Friday, the main contract of glass closed at 1144 yuan/ton, down 1.63% (- 19). The inventory of float glass enterprises decreased by 2.37%. The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their positions [24]. - Soda Ash: On Friday, the main contract of soda ash closed at 1228 yuan/ton, down 0.89% (- 11). The inventory of soda ash enterprises increased by 2.37%. The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their positions [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoints** - Glass: The daily melting volume decreased, and the cost increased, boosting the price. However, the terminal orders are weak, and the high inventory restricts the price increase. It is recommended to wait and see [25]. - Soda Ash: The supply is stable, the demand from downstream glass industries decreased, the inventory continued to accumulate, and the market is still weak [27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Long - term**: For rebar, the cost side is frequently disturbed, the supply has been increasing, the apparent demand has been declining, and the weak pattern is hard to change; for iron ore, the supply is loose, the downstream hot metal production has bottomed out, and it will mainly fluctuate. For glass, the number of production lines and weekly output are decreasing, and the weak pattern is hard to change; for soda ash, the industry profit is declining, the market start - up is increasing, and it will mainly fluctuate weakly [65][69]. - **Short - term**: Rebar and iron ore will fluctuate and consolidate in the short term with room for correction; glass and soda ash will maintain a weak pattern and continue to fluctuate at a low level [66][70]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Black - series Weekly Market Review - **Price Changes**: From December 31, 2025, to January 9, 2026, the closing prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, glass, and soda ash futures main contracts all increased, with increases of 1%, 1%, 3%, 3%, 7%, 5%, and 2% respectively [3]. - **Rebar**: On January 8, the rebar blast furnace profit was 68 yuan/ton [7]. Rebar - **Supply Side**: As of January 9, 2026, the blast furnace operating rate was 79.31%, a 0.37 - percentage - point increase; the daily average hot metal output was 2.295 million tons, a 2070 - ton increase; the rebar output was 191,040 tons, a 2820 - ton increase [12]. - **Demand Side**: In the week of January 9, the apparent consumption of rebar was 174,960 tons, a 25,480 - ton decrease; as of January 8, the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 83,801 tons [17]. - **Inventory**: In the week of January 9, the social inventory of rebar was 290,180 tons, a 7520 - ton decrease; the in - factory inventory was 147,930 tons, an 8560 - ton increase [22]. Iron Ore - **Supply Side**: In the week of January 2, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3.2137 million tons, a 463,400 - ton decrease; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2.8247 million tons, a 96,900 - ton increase [27]. - **Inventory**: In the week of January 9, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 17.04444 million tons, a 322,650 - ton increase; the inventory of imported iron ore at 247 steel enterprises was 8.98959 million tons, a 43,050 - ton increase [32]. - **Demand Side**: In the week of January 9, the average daily port clearance volume of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 336,960 tons, a 3250 - ton decrease; as of January 8, the trading volume at major Chinese ports was 103,000 tons [37]. Float Glass - **Supply Side**: In the week of January 9, the number of float glass production lines in operation was 212, a decrease of 2; the weekly output was 1,059,245 tons, a decrease of 14,130 tons; as of January 8, the capacity utilization rate was 75%, and the operating rate was 71.38% [42]. - **Inventory**: In the week of January 9, the in - factory inventory of float glass was 55.518 million weight - boxes, a decrease of 1.348 million weight - boxes; the available days of in - factory inventory were 24.1 days, a decrease of 1.5 days [45]. - **Demand Side**: In the week of January 4, the number of days of deep - processing orders from glass downstream manufacturers was 8.6 days [49]. Soda Ash - **Supply Side**: In the week of January 9, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 84.39%, a 4.43 - percentage - point increase; the output was 75,360 tons, a 5650 - ton increase [52]. - **Inventory**: As of January 9, the in - factory inventory of soda ash was 157,270 tons, a 16,440 - ton increase [57]. - **Production and Sales Rate**: As of January 9, the production and sales rate of soda ash was 78.18%, a 26.15 - percentage - point decrease [61].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views - For steel products, profit margins have improved, reducing the incentive for production cuts. Iron ore production has stopped declining and stabilized, with a slight increase in output. However, downstream demand is expected to weaken gradually after the festival. Currently, inventory is being depleted, but there may be inventory accumulation due to supply - demand mismatches in the future, leading to a price return to a volatile pattern [3] - For iron ore, the current fundamentals are neutral. The shipping end is slightly positive, but there is significant pressure on floating ore at sea and subsequent port - arrival pressure. On the demand side, steel mill profits have rebounded, and inventory has been continuously depleted, providing room for increased production. It is expected that iron production has bottomed out and will rebound. Inventory is high, but there is a structural shortage. Attention should be paid to policy risks. Steel mills have pre - festival inventory replenishment demand for support. Overall, the current spot market is not short of iron ore, and the fundamentals are difficult to support continuous price increases. In the short - term, prices are overbought technically, and attention should be paid to policy risks related to inventory release [22] - For coking coal and coke, the market has been affected by the "anti - monopoly" news, and the previous hype of the "anti - involution" concept has cooled down. The coking coal and coke futures have shown signs of correction. The rebound of coking coal and coke is mainly driven by the resonance of macro and industrial logic. Macro - level events have intensified concerns about the supply stability of key mineral resources, affecting multiple sectors. On the industrial side, the stabilization and rebound of downstream iron production, the strengthening of winter storage replenishment expectations, and low inventory in the spot - futures trading link support the demand side. The impact of macro sentiment on coking coal and coke prices is significantly stronger than that of industrial logic. If the macro sentiment cools down, it will be difficult to support a significant upward movement of the futures market relying solely on the improvement of demand in the black industry chain. The subsequent trend may turn into a small - range volatile pattern [32] - For ferroalloys, with the increase in production and continuous inventory accumulation, the upward momentum of price fluctuations may be suppressed, leading to a price correction. However, the downward space is limited due to cost support [48] - For soda ash, the sentiment in the commodity market has heated up, driving up low - valued varieties. Fundamentally, as the expectation of new production capacity comes into play, the expectation of oversupply in soda ash is intensifying. Recently, the cold repair of glass production lines has accelerated, further weakening the expected rigid demand for soda ash. The medium - to - long - term high - level supply expectation of soda ash remains unchanged. Photovoltaic glass has started to accumulate inventory at a low level, and the daily melting volume is relatively stable. The balance of heavy soda ash remains in surplus. In November, soda ash exports were close to 190,000 tons, remaining at a high level, which continued to alleviate domestic pressure to some extent. High inventory in the upstream and mid - stream restricts soda ash prices [62] - For glass, there are still some glass production line cold repairs to be implemented before the Spring Festival, which may affect long - term pricing and market expectations. Policy disturbances to supply cannot be ruled out. In reality, regardless of supply expectations, the high inventory in the mid - stream of glass needs to be digested, and with the terminal market entering the off - season, there is still pressure on the spot market [84] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products - **Price Data**: On January 9, 2026, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 3,089 yuan/ton, down from 3,127 yuan/ton on January 8; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil 01 contract was 3,255 yuan/ton, down from 3,300 yuan/ton on January 8. The rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices also showed slight declines in some regions [4][9] - **Spread Data**: The rebar 01 - 05 monthly spread was - 55 yuan/ton on January 9, compared to - 41 yuan/ton on January 8; the hot - rolled coil 01 - 05 monthly spread was - 39 yuan/ton on January 9, compared to - 17 yuan/ton on January 8. The rebar - hot - rolled coil spread also showed some changes [4][16] Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On January 9, 2026, the closing price of the 01 contract was 852 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the 05 contract was 814.5 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan from the previous day. The basis also showed corresponding changes [23] - **Fundamental Data**: The average daily iron production on January 9 was 229.5 tons, up 2.07 tons from the previous week; the 45 - port inventory was 16,275,260 tons, up 304,370 tons from the previous week [26] Coking Coal and Coke - **Futures Spread Data**: On January 9, 2026, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread was 83 yuan/ton, down 27.5 yuan from the previous day; the coke 09 - 01 spread was 328 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day [35] - **Spot Price Data**: The ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur primary coking coal remained at 1,500 yuan/ton; the self - pick - up price of Mongolian 5 raw coal at the 288 port was 1,034 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan from the previous week [36] Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On January 9, 2026, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 38 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan from the previous day; the silicon iron spot price in Ningxia was 5,420 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan from the previous day [49] - **Silicon Manganese**: The silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 146 yuan/ton on January 9, down 62 yuan from the previous day; the silicon manganese spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5,700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan from the previous day [50] Soda Ash - **Price Data**: On January 9, 2026, the closing price of the soda ash 05 contract was 1,228 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the 09 contract was 1,295 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day [63] - **Inventory and Market Data**: The overall inventory of the upstream and mid - stream remains high, restricting price increases. In November, exports were close to 190,000 tons, alleviating domestic pressure to some extent [62] Glass - **Price Data**: On January 9, 2026, the closing price of the glass 05 contract was 1,144 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the 09 contract was 1,238 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan from the previous day [85] - **Sales and Production Data**: The sales - to - production ratio in different regions showed certain fluctuations. For example, the sales - to - production ratio in Shahe on January 4 was 137, compared to 130 on January 3 [86]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The steel market is characterized by strong supply and weak demand, with an emerging inventory accumulation trend. The glass and soda ash markets show divergent trends due to supply disturbances. The double - silicon market has cooled in sentiment, waiting for major steel tenders [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass: The glass futures market fluctuated upward yesterday. Some manufacturers raised prices, and spot - futures traders gradually entered the market, providing short - term support for prices. This week, the daily melting volume of float glass was 151,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.17%, and the manufacturer inventory was 55.518 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 2.37% [1] - Soda Ash: The soda ash futures market fluctuated downward yesterday, and downstream demand for spot purchases was limited. This week, the soda ash output was 753,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.11%, and the inventory was 1.5727 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.26% [1] Supply - Demand and Logic - Glass: The supply - demand contradiction in the glass market is still significant. Although some production lines have been gradually cold - repaired, the production reduction is insufficient compared to the decline in rigid demand. With the purchase by spot - futures traders, the inventory pressure has been relieved, and the market has expectations for the peak season after the Spring Festival. Continued attention should be paid to the progress of glass cold - repair [1] - Soda Ash: The supply - demand contradiction in the soda ash market has increased, with supply rebounding month - on - month and demand weakening, leading to a significant increase in inventory. Considering the upcoming release of new production capacity and the expected increase in float glass cold - repair, it is necessary to suppress the production profit of soda ash enterprises to avoid supply - demand imbalance. In the short term, the speculative demand for soda ash has increased under the influence of macro - sentiment. Continued attention should be paid to changes in float glass production lines and the progress of new soda ash production projects [1] Strategy - Glass: Expected to fluctuate - Soda Ash: Expected to fluctuate - No strategies are provided for inter - period and inter - commodity trading [2] Double - Silicon Market Analysis - Silicon Manganese: The market trading returned to rationality yesterday, and the bullish sentiment declined. The silicon manganese futures prices dropped. The price of 6517 silicon manganese in the northern market was 5,630 - 5,730 yuan/ton, and in the southern market was 5,750 - 5,800 yuan/ton [3] - Silicon Ferrosilicon: The silicon ferrosilicon market was weak yesterday. As the steel tenders in January were in progress, traders were actively purchasing, and overall sales were good. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade silicon ferrosilicon in the main production areas was 5,350 - 5,400 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade silicon ferrosilicon was 5,750 - 5,800 yuan/ton [3] Supply - Demand and Logic - Silicon Manganese: The fundamentals of silicon manganese are not favorable. The output is still higher than the demand, and the inventory has increased significantly. The resumption of steel mills after the New Year's Day will help repair the rigid demand for silicon manganese. Currently, the port inventory of manganese ore is low, providing a bottom support for silicon manganese prices. Silicon manganese is expected to fluctuate. Future attention should be paid to the cost support of manganese ore and changes in output [3] - Silicon Ferrosilicon: The fundamental contradictions in the silicon ferrosilicon market have been alleviated compared to the previous period. Enterprises have actively reduced production, and the factory inventory has decreased significantly. Considering the resumption of steel mills after the New Year's Day, the rigid demand for silicon ferrosilicon is expected to improve. Due to the planned implementation of differential electricity prices in Shaanxi, the production cost of silicon ferrosilicon enterprises is expected to increase. Silicon ferrosilicon prices are expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the subsequent inventory reduction, cost changes, and regional policies [3] Strategy - Silicon Manganese: Expected to fluctuate - Silicon Ferrosilicon: Expected to fluctuate [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the commodity market has significantly cooled, and the prices of finished steel products have slightly declined. The black - series is still in a bottom - range oscillation pattern and is sensitive to news changes. The actual terminal demand for steel is still weak, and in the short - term, the macro level is in a policy window period. Attention should be paid to the destocking of hot - rolled coils and the impact of "dual - carbon" policies on the supply - demand pattern of the steel industry [3]. - The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate. The upper space is restricted by high inventory and the expectation of loose supply, while the lower space is supported by restocking expectations. Follow - up attention should be paid to the steel mills' restocking and hot - metal production rhythm [6]. - The bullish sentiment in the commodity market may continue, but attention should be paid to the short - term impact and high - volatility risk of previous "sentiment leaders" such as silver, platinum, and lithium carbonate on the market sentiment. For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the future market is mainly affected by the overall market sentiment, cost - push factors of manganese ore, and supply - contraction issues due to losses [10][11]. - The fundamentals of industrial silicon are still weak, and the price is expected to be under pressure. For polysilicon, the demand is weak, and there is still inventory accumulation pressure. The price is affected by the price increase of the industrial chain and the antitrust news [15][17]. - The glass price has risen recently due to cost support and supply - contraction expectations, but the short - term upward space is limited due to weak terminal demand. The soda ash market is in a stage of intense game between weak fundamentals and external positive factors, and the disk volatility has increased significantly [20][22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3168 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton (-0.59%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 1211 tons to 55633 tons, and the position increased by 40419 hands to 1.7818 million hands. The Tianjin aggregated price of rebar increased by 30 yuan/ton to 3210 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregated price remained unchanged at 3320 yuan/ton [2]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3317 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.45%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 4706 tons to 108701 tons, and the position increased by 63008 hands to 1.4409 million hands. The Lecong aggregated price of hot - rolled coils remained unchanged at 3300 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregated price decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 3290 yuan/ton [2]. Strategy Views - The production of hot - rolled coils has increased slightly, demand has continued to weaken, and inventory has continued to decline slightly; the production of rebar has increased counter - seasonally, demand has declined, and inventory has slightly accumulated. The black - series is still in a bottom - range oscillation pattern, and attention should be paid to market rumors and information screening. Focus on the destocking of hot - rolled coils, the strengthening of "dual - carbon" policies, and their marginal impact on the supply - demand pattern of the steel industry [3]. Iron Ore Market Quotes - The main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 813.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1.81% (-15.00). The position decreased by 29907 hands to 636700 hands, and the weighted position was 962000 hands. The PB powder at Qingdao Port was 821 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 59.89 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.86% [5]. Strategy Views - Supply: The year - end shipping rush of mines has ended, and the overseas iron ore shipping volume has decreased. Demand: The daily average hot - metal output has continued to rise, and the steel mill profitability has slightly declined. Inventory: The port inventory has continued to accumulate, and the steel mills' imported ore inventory has increased but is still at a low level. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the steel mills' restocking and hot - metal production rhythm [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - On January 8, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM603) closed down 1.80% at 5892 yuan/ton. The spot price of Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon was 5780 yuan/ton, with a basis of 78 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed down 3.28% at 5668 yuan/ton. The spot price of Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon was 5850 yuan/ton, with a basis of 182 yuan/ton [9]. Strategy Views - The bullish sentiment in the commodity market may continue, but attention should be paid to the short - term impact of previous "sentiment leaders" on the market sentiment. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is still not ideal, but most factors have been priced in. The supply - demand structure of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. The future market is mainly affected by the overall market sentiment, cost - push factors of manganese ore, and supply - contraction issues due to losses [10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Quotes - The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2605) closed at 8535 yuan/ton, with a change of - 4.96% (-445). The weighted position increased by 13815 hands to 379966 hands. The spot price of East China non - oxygen 553 was 9200 yuan/ton, with a basis of 665 yuan/ton [13]. - The main contract of polysilicon (PS2605) closed at 53610 yuan/ton, with a change of - 8.04% (-4690). The weighted position decreased by 12083 hands to 116672 hands. The average price of SMM - caliber N - type granular silicon increased by 4 yuan/kg to 54.5 yuan/kg, and the basis was 1890 yuan/ton [16]. Strategy Views - Industrial silicon: The fundamentals are weak, and the price is expected to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [15]. - Polysilicon: The demand is weak, and there is still inventory accumulation pressure. The price is affected by the price increase of the industrial chain and the antitrust news. Attention should be paid to the actual production reduction of enterprises and the actual spot transactions [17]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Quotes - The glass main contract closed at 1163 yuan/ton, up 1.31% (+15). The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises decreased by 1348000 boxes (-2.37%) to 55.518 million boxes. The top 20 long - position holders increased their positions by 75448 hands, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their positions by 28120 hands [19]. - The soda ash main contract closed at 1239 yuan/ton, down 2.52% (-32). The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises increased by 164400 tons to 1.5727 million tons. The top 20 long - position holders increased their positions by 54910 hands, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their positions by 86643 hands [21]. Strategy Views - Glass: The price has risen recently due to cost support and supply - contraction expectations, but the short - term upward space is limited due to weak terminal demand [20]. - Soda ash: The market is in a stage of intense game between weak fundamentals and external positive factors, and the disk volatility has increased significantly [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The medium - term outlook for the industry is "Oscillation" [6] Core View of the Report - In the off - season, demand seasonally weakens. With the gradual resumption of production by steel mills, the inventory accumulation pressure on the steel side becomes apparent, and fundamental contradictions start to accumulate. The resumption of hot metal production and pre - festival restocking expectations support the iron ore price, but high inventory limits the upside space. The supply - side expectations of coking coal are still volatile, and winter storage support is limited. The glass and soda ash market is suppressed by oversupply. After a weak adjustment, the prices of furnace materials are expected to rise from low levels before the Spring Festival, but the upside space is limited by steel mill profits [1][2][6] Summary by Relevant Catalog Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Port inventory continues to accumulate. There are expected disruptions on the supply side. The resumption of hot metal production and pre - festival restocking on the demand side support the ore price. In reality, both supply and demand need verification. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. The daily port trading volume is 103(+42.8) million tons. The price of spot market quotes fell by 3 - 11 yuan/ton. Overseas mine shipments decreased significantly, while arrivals increased. The iron - making rate of steel mills weakened slightly, and the restocking demand increased but the rhythm was slow [2][8][9] - **Scrap Steel**: The supply and demand of scrap steel are both weak. Steel mills' inventory is high, and restocking slows down. The spot price of scrap steel has limited upward momentum, but the good electric - furnace profit and high daily consumption support demand. The overall fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the price is expected to oscillate. This week, the average daily arrival volume decreased, and the total daily consumption of the latest sample electric furnaces remained stable at a high level. The inventory of long - process steel mills is high, and restocking slows down [2][10] Carbon Element - **Coke**: The cost side of coke has shown signs of stabilization, and the expectation of steel mill复产 still exists. As mid - and downstream winter storage and restocking gradually start, and the sharp rise in the futures market may drive spot - futures and speculative demand to enter the market for purchases, the supply - demand structure of coke may gradually tighten. The spot price is expected to stabilize, and the futures market is expected to follow the coking coal market. The price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke is 1480 yuan/ton (+10), and the port basis of the 05 contract is - 115 yuan/ton (+8) [2][12] - **Coking Coal**: As the New Year approaches, the intensity of winter storage gradually increases, and the impulse behavior of Mongolian coal imports has improved. The overall supply pressure will be relieved, and the fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally. The futures and spot prices still have upward momentum. The price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Jiexiu is 1250 yuan/ton (-10), and the price of Mongolian No. 5 cleaned coal in Wubulangkou Jinquan Industrial Park is 1200 yuan/ton (+93) [2][12][13] Alloys - **Silicomanganese**: The pattern of loose supply and demand of silicomanganese continues. The upstream has great pressure to destock. When the futures price rises to a high level, it will face selling pressure for hedging. In the medium term, the futures price is expected to gradually fall back to near the cost valuation. The ex - factory price of 6517 silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia is 5750 yuan/ton (+100), and the price of 45.0% Australian ore blocks at Tianjin Port is 42 yuan/ton - degree (+0.2) [3][17][18] - **Ferrosilicon**: Currently, the supply pressure of ferrosilicon is not great, but after profit repair, the resumption of production by manufacturers may accelerate, and the upstream supply pressure may reappear. In an environment of weak supply and demand, the upside space of the futures price should be viewed with caution. The ex - factory price of 72 ferrosilicon in Ningxia is 5370 yuan/ton (0), and the price of 99.9% magnesium ingots in Fugu is 16750 yuan/ton (+400) [3][19] Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: There are still expected disruptions in supply, but the inventory of mid - and downstream is moderately high. Fundamentally, the current supply and demand are still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise. The mainstream large - plate price in North China is 1020 yuan/ton (+10), and the national average price is 1086 yuan/ton (+5) [3][14] - **Soda Ash**: The overall supply and demand of soda ash are still in surplus, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the pattern of supply surplus will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction. The delivered price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe is 1200 yuan/ton (-) [3][17] Other Information - **Steel**: The inventory begins to accumulate, and the futures price falls from a high level. The spot market trading volume weakens. The price of Hangzhou rebar is 3290 (0) yuan/ton, and the price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil is 3270 (-10) yuan/ton. The production of rebar and hot - rolled coil increases. The demand in the off - season weakens seasonally, and the overall steel inventory stops falling and rebounds [8] - **Commodity Index**: On January 8, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodities decreased by 1.06% to 2380.19, the commodity 20 index decreased by 1.00% to 2717.76, and the industrial product index decreased by 1.19% to 2317.04. The steel industry chain index decreased by 0.69% on that day, increased by 2.50% in the past 5 days, increased by 4.93% in the past month, and increased by 2.50% since the beginning of the year [106][107][109]

Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market experienced a high-level correction on January 8, with significant declines in the metal sector. The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1607.00 points, down 25.99 points or 1.59% from the previous trading day [1] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Index also fell to 2217.47 points, a decrease of 35.86 points or 1.59% [1] Metal Sector Performance - The metal sector saw widespread declines, with nearly all contracts for polysilicon hitting the daily limit down, while platinum, nickel, and silver dropped around 6%. Industrial silicon and palladium fell over 4% and 3%, respectively, and copper, aluminum, and lead also decreased by more than 2% [1] - In contrast, the black chain commodities continued to show a rebound, with coking coal rising nearly 5%, leading the market, while coke increased over 2%. Iron ore saw a brief rise of nearly 2% but later fluctuated downwards [1] Coking Coal Insights - Coking coal maintained a strong performance, closing up over 4% despite a noticeable retreat from its night session highs. The supply side remains relatively tight, and the overall valuation of the black series is low, making it susceptible to positive factors [3] - Market sentiment has cooled, and recent data indicates a renewed accumulation of steel inventory, reflecting weak terminal demand. The outlook suggests that while coking coal supply and demand are balanced, market movements will be driven by macro sentiment and funding [3] Glass Market Trends - The main contract for glass continued its strong performance, closing up 2.65%. This was supported by rising coal prices and a slight improvement in the spot market, leading to a 2.37% decrease in national float glass inventory [4] - However, demand remains weak, with processing orders declining. The industry is expected to continue reducing capacity, with daily melting rates anticipated to drop below 150,000 tons [4] Polysilicon Market Dynamics - On January 8, polysilicon contracts faced significant declines, with most contracts hitting the daily limit down, resulting in a 9% drop. This was primarily driven by rumors of regulatory scrutiny regarding monopolistic risks in the polysilicon market [5] - Despite some production cuts in polysilicon supply regions, demand is also weakening, leading to a continued accumulation trend in January. Analysts suggest that the market may return to a marginal cost pricing model, which could stabilize prices once terminal demand improves [5][6] Shipping Market Conditions - The shipping market, particularly the European route, is experiencing heightened pessimism due to price cuts from major shipping companies like Maersk and CMA CGM. This has led to increased selling pressure on the main contracts [6] - Concerns are growing that if shipping volumes do not meet expectations before the Spring Festival peak, it could further negatively impact the shipping market [6]

能源化工团队 | 作者： | 魏朝明 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3077171 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015738 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578971 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2026年01月08日星期四 期货研究院 方正中期玻璃纯碱产业链日度策略 FG&SA Futures Daily Report 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 摘要 【玻璃】 现货方面，周三国内浮法玻璃价格稳中有涨，交投氛围显著改善。 华北市场价格走高，生产企业出厂价普涨1-2元/重量箱；华中区域 价格基本走稳；华南部分货源上调1-2元/重量箱得到落实，月初部 分下游提货较为积极，市场交投氛围相对较好，个别货源仍有涨价 计划；西南四川本周报价走高，后期有望进一步上调。 随着玻璃供应密集减量，高库存或难进一步构成价格上行的压力。 对产业来说，库存逐步从负担变成财富，这一观念转变或能与强有 力的环保政策及房地产预期形成共振，玻璃后市仍值得期待。 玻璃盘面走势企稳，05合约买入头寸继续持有。05合约下方支撑9 50-970，上方压力1250-13 ...

Report Investment Rating - Glass: Oscillating with an upward bias [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating with an upward bias [2] - Silicomanganese: Oscillating with an upward bias [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating with an upward bias [4] Core Viewpoints - The raw material cost has pushed up steel prices strongly, and the prices of glass, soda ash, and double silicon have shown an upward trend [1][3] - The supply - demand contradictions of glass and soda ash are different, and attention should be paid to production line changes and new project progress [1] - The fundamentals of silicomanganese and ferrosilicon have different characteristics, and factors such as cost and demand need to be concerned [3] Market Analysis Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The glass futures and spot prices rose significantly. Although some production lines have been cold - repaired, the production reduction is insufficient compared to the decline in rigid demand. The purchase of futures - spot traders may relieve inventory pressure, and the market expects a peak season after the Spring Festival [1] - Soda Ash: The futures and spot prices of soda ash rose. The rigid demand from downstream is limited, but the enthusiasm of futures - spot traders and traders has increased. The supply has decreased, and the inventory has increased month - on - month. Attention should be paid to the changes in float glass production lines and new soda ash projects [1] Double Silicon - Silicomanganese: Affected by the overall rise of the black series, the silicomanganese futures rose. The South African government plans to impose tariffs on unprocessed manganese ore, which may increase the cost. The current fundamentals are not good, with high production and large inventory growth. After the New Year's Day, the resumption of steel mills may repair the rigid demand, and the low port inventory of manganese ore provides support [3] - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon market is running strongly. Traders are active in purchasing during the January steel tenders, and the sales are good. The fundamentals' contradictions have been significantly alleviated, the factory inventory has decreased, and the rigid demand is expected to improve after the resumption of steel mills. The implementation of differential electricity prices in Shaanxi may increase the cost [3] Strategy - Glass: Oscillating with an upward bias [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating with an upward bias [2] - Silicomanganese: Oscillating with an upward bias [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating with an upward bias [4] - Inter - period: None [2] - Inter - variety: None [2]