Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the PCB upstream new materials, particularly in the fields of electronic cloth and copper foil [2][14]. Core Insights - The report highlights the shift in Nvidia's GB200NVLink design to high-layer, high-frequency low-dielectric PCBs, which is expected to catalyze demand for upstream new materials in AI applications [2][14]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing price increases in the waterproof industry, with major companies like Keshun and Dongfang Yuhong announcing price hikes, reflecting a consensus among industry leaders to combat excessive competition [3][15]. - The report notes the potential for local manufacturing growth in Africa, particularly through companies like Keda Manufacturing, which is integrating into local economies by producing tiles and sanitary ware [4][16]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Discussion - The report continues to explore the potential of PCB upstream new materials, focusing on electronic cloth and copper foil, with a significant gap in expectations for high-end copper foil materials [2][14]. 2. Industry Price Changes - The report details the recent price adjustments in the waterproof sector, with companies implementing price increases ranging from 2% to 13% across various product categories [3][15]. - It also provides insights into the cement sector, noting a national average price of 349 RMB/t, a year-on-year decrease of 41 RMB, and an average shipment rate of 43.2% [5][17]. 3. Market Performance - The report indicates that the construction materials index increased by 3.91% this week, with notable performances in glass manufacturing and fiberglass sectors [23][27]. - It highlights the average price of float glass at 1201.02 RMB/ton, with a slight increase of 0.13% compared to the previous week [5][17]. 4. National Subsidy Tracking - The report discusses the government's initiatives to boost consumption, including the organization of new energy vehicle promotions and the issuance of funds for trade-in programs [6][18]. 5. Important Changes - The report notes significant developments, including the central government's emphasis on regulating low-price competition and the announcement of price adjustments by leading waterproof companies [7][22].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The ongoing "anti-involution" initiative is expected to improve the fundamentals of the construction materials industry, with a focus on enhancing product quality and phasing out outdated production capacity [3] - The report highlights specific companies to watch, including SanKeTree, Dongfang Yuhong, Weixing New Materials, and Jianlang Hardware, as well as beneficiaries like Beixin Building Materials [3] - The cement sector is projected to benefit from energy-saving and carbon reduction initiatives, with a target to control cement clinker capacity to around 1.8 billion tons by the end of 2025 [3] Market Performance - The construction materials index increased by 3.96% in the week from June 30 to July 4, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.42 percentage points [4][13] - Over the past three months, the CSI 300 index rose by 8.01%, while the construction materials index only increased by 2.47%, indicating a lag of 5.55 percentage points [4][13] - In the past year, the CSI 300 index has risen by 16.06%, compared to an 11.69% increase in the construction materials index, resulting in a 4.38 percentage point underperformance [4][13] Cement Sector - As of July 4, 2025, the average price of P.O42.5 bulk cement was 293.11 RMB/ton, reflecting a 1.97% decrease from the previous period [6][24] - The clinker inventory ratio nationwide was 68.18%, down by 1.18 percentage points [6][25] - Regional price variations were noted, with the Northeast region remaining stable, while other regions like North China and Southwest saw declines of 4.13% and 6.58%, respectively [6][24] Glass Sector - The average price of float glass was 1201.35 RMB/ton as of July 4, 2025, showing a slight increase of 0.07% [6][74] - The inventory of float glass decreased by 1.17%, with a total of 58.31 million weight boxes reported [6][76] - The price of photovoltaic glass fell by 3.88%, with an average price of 116.02 RMB/weight box [6][81] Fiberglass Sector - The price of non-alkali 2400tex direct yarn ranged from 3400 to 4100 RMB/ton, with variations based on specific product types [6] - The fiberglass sector is expected to benefit from favorable tariffs for companies with overseas production bases [3] Consumer Building Materials - The report indicates that raw material prices for consumer building materials have remained relatively stable with slight fluctuations [6][5]

以下文章来源于黑貔貅俱乐部 ，作者黑貔貅 黑貔貅俱乐部 . 宏观经济 ，亮点行业，大类资产配置 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：黑貔貅俱乐部 来源：雪球 站在当下看未来的3-5年 ， 反内卷或许会成为影响中国社会以及经济最重要的事件之一 。 映射到资本市场 上也会带来巨大的投资机会 ， 尤其是对商品而言 ， 可能会成为影响部分品种的核心变量 。 尽管大家都在 类比16年的供给侧改革 ， 但是我觉得还是有很大的差异性 。 01 有较大的背景跟性质差异 15年过剩的行业相对集中在中上游领域 ， 产品的同质化竞争是比较严重的 ， 比如钢铁 ， 水泥 ， 电解铝 ， 玻璃等等 ， 大家生成的东西没有多少不同 ， 价格上也没有多少差距 。 而且这种过剩很大程度上是因为 2011-2012年的经济繁荣带来的投资 ， 主要是周期性因素为主 ， 通过棚改货币化刺激需求以及行政手段 压减无效产能 ， 退出效果还是比较显著的 。 但是本轮产能主要集中在终端消费领域 ， 产品的差距还是很大 ， 中低高端都有 ， 很难通过行政命令去去 化 ， 比如光伏是差异化过剩问题 。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the advancements in flexible and foldable glass technology developed by China National Building Material Group Glass New Materials Research Institute, showcasing its applications in various high-tech products and its significance in the global glass industry [1][2][3]. Group 1: Product Innovation - The flexible foldable glass produced by the company is only 30 micrometers thick, approximately one-third the thickness of a standard A4 paper, and has a bending lifespan exceeding one million cycles [1]. - This glass maintains high temperature resistance, hardness, light transmittance, gas tightness, and flatness, ensuring stable mechanical and chemical properties even under oxidative and illuminated conditions [1]. - The flexible glass has been widely applied in products such as foldable smartphones, rollable televisions, and flexible medical testing equipment [1]. Group 2: Research and Development - The production of ultra-thin flexible foldable glass required over a thousand experiments for formulation, followed by industrial trials and the design of dedicated production lines [2]. - The team, led by an academician from the Chinese Academy of Engineering, has successfully overcome key technological challenges, establishing a comprehensive industrial chain from high-strength glass to precision post-processing [2]. - The company has developed a "three-chain integration" model, combining innovation, engineering, and industry chains, resulting in numerous "China's first, world-leading" achievements [2]. Group 3: Market Impact - The development of the world's first 8.6-generation OLED ultra-thin float glass substrate is set to be completed by the end of 2024, marking a significant milestone in the production of high-generation OLED glass substrates in China [2][3]. - These innovations support the demand for advanced glass materials in sectors such as information display, new energy, semiconductors, and high-end equipment, ensuring the security of China's industrial supply chains [3]. - The advancements in glass technology signify a shift for China from following and catching up to leading in the global glass industry [3].

Industry Overview - Borosilicate glass is a specialized product with excellent thermal shock resistance and water resistance, widely used for packaging pharmaceuticals such as injections, blood products, and vaccines [1][2] - The market for borosilicate glass in China is projected to reach approximately 8.6 billion yuan by 2024, with a penetration rate of about 25% [20] Industry Chain Analysis - The upstream materials for borosilicate glass production include quartz sand, boron sand, and other raw materials, while the downstream applications primarily involve medical institutions and pharmaceutical logistics [2][6] - Key players in the upstream supply include companies like Quartz Co. and Corning, while major manufacturers in the midstream include domestic firms like Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass and Zhengchuan Co. [6] Development History - The development of borosilicate glass in China began in the 1950s, with significant advancements occurring after 2004 when Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass introduced the first domestic production technology [9] - The industry has seen a shift towards domestic production capabilities, reducing reliance on imports and addressing long-standing supply chain issues [9] Policy Background - Recent policies emphasize the importance of quality in pharmaceutical packaging materials, with the National Medical Products Administration reinforcing standards for injection packaging [11][12] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" for the pharmaceutical industry aims to enhance the standardization and quality of pharmaceutical excipients and packaging materials [11][12] Market Structure - The market for borosilicate glass is segmented, with molded bottles accounting for 44% of the market share in 2024, while ampoules and tubular bottles hold similar shares [21] - The competitive landscape features a tiered structure, with leading companies like Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass and Zhengchuan Co. dominating the market, while other firms lag behind in market share and technological advancement [26][29] Future Outlook - The market for borosilicate glass is expected to grow significantly, potentially reaching 21.5 billion yuan by 2030, driven by increased demand and ongoing policy support [32] - The industry is anticipated to experience a trend towards technological innovation and increased competition, with domestic companies improving product quality and reducing costs [35]

招商银行在这大市惨淡的4年时间中上涨了40%，其间出现10次以上月度跌幅超过5%的走势。就在上证指 数跌破千点关口之际，招商银行2005年5月的月度跌幅为8.6%。然而，市场给了有定力的投资者丰厚的回 报，2006年招商银行大涨180%，2007年再度上涨143%。 皖通高速在这4年熊市中的整体涨幅为223%，但其间曾四次月度跌幅超过7%。就在上证指数跌破千点之 际，皖通高速2005年5月的跌幅达到了12.4%，市场极度悲观，此后该股在底部盘整了近一年，并在2007年 的牛市中大涨超过60%。 福耀玻璃在这4年中股价几乎没有动，微幅上涨0.2%，但该股在2006年大涨180%，2007年再度大涨145%； 伊利股份在这4年当中微幅上涨10%，此后在2006年上涨140%，2007年再度上涨11%，但伊利股份的走势 并非一帆风顺，在2004年该股曾4次月度跌幅超过10%。 投资应以持股为主 从长期来说，上市公司是一个经济体最优秀企业的代表，其内在价值的增长远远跑赢债券和储蓄。多位成 功的价值投资者除了少数泡沫时期，均以长线持股为主。 A股价值投资大佬张尧的仓位管理法则是：基本满仓状态，除了少数极度泡沫时期；市场 ...

7月4日，光伏概念板块走强，截至当日收盘，霍普股份、韶能股份、亚玛顿、东材科技等多只光伏概念 股盘中涨停，迪森股份、国际复材、协鑫能科等多只个股跟涨，市场热度提升。 "从时间节点看，近期光伏玻璃企业减产的时机确已到来。5月份抢装潮结束后，国内光伏行业需求骤 降，组件排产下降，光伏玻璃需求减弱、价格快速下跌。在这样的背景下，行业自发减产是合理的选 择。"中信建投期货能化高级分析师胡鹏说。 上海有色网提供的信息显示，预计7月份国内光伏玻璃产量将下降至45GW水平。供应量的收缩有望对 市场价格形成支撑作用，缓解企业持续亏损的困难局面。 消息面上，有传闻称"国内十大光伏玻璃厂商召开会议，决定自7月份起实施集体减产30%的计划"。上 海有色网光伏玻璃分析师郑天鸿表示，部分光伏玻璃企业前期已经规划好的减产计划，正在陆续执行， 7月份减产是大概率事件，未来减产动作可能还会延伸至三季度。 供需失衡倒逼减产 近年来，光伏玻璃行业经历了快速扩张期，导致供需关系急剧恶化。国金证券发布研报显示，截至2024 年末，光伏玻璃在产日熔量达92490吨，而需求端因组件产量连续下滑，库存飙升至45天，接近"爆 仓"临界点。 价格方面，隆众资 ...

事件： 根据新华社北京7月1日电，中共中央总书记、国家主席、中央军委主席、中央财经委员会主任习近平7月1日上 午主持召开中央财经委员会第六次会议，研究纵深推进全国统一大市场建设、海洋经济高质量发展等问题。会 议强调，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，要聚焦重点难点，依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产 品品质，推动落后产能有序退出。7月2日午后，钢铁、煤炭、建材等板块涨幅居前。 点评： 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 政策信号扭转预期，重点关注内卷最为严重、盈利状况最糟糕的领域 7月2日的大涨，从市场交易层面，是资金的再配置，从前期热度较高、资金扎堆的板块切换至低位的周期板 块；从基本面层面，"反内卷"的政策决心对于地产链、新能源等低价竞争较为严重的产业领 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-07-04 宏观利好情绪继续推动⿊⾊上⾏ "反内卷"叠加唐⼭减排进⼀步强化供给减量预期，乐观情绪主导市 场，现货和期货共振上⾏。与此同时，炉料也表现强势，形成正反馈 驱动。⿊⾊基本⾯处于相对均衡状态，各环节⽭盾均不明显，铁⽔⼩ 幅回落同⽐维持⾼位，钢材保持低库存。淡季悲观预期修复，价格重 ⼼回升⾄4-5⽉区间。此次利好预计能刺激贸易商等中游环节补库， 提升现货流动性。后续则需要关注政策具体落实情况以及需求转弱程 度，预计短期震荡偏强运⾏。 ⿊⾊：宏观利好情绪继续推动⿊⾊上⾏ "反内卷"叠加唐山减排进一步强化供给减量预期，乐观情绪主导市 场，现货和期货共振上行。与此同时，炉料也表现强势，形成正反馈 驱动。黑色基本面处于相对均衡状态，各环节矛盾均不明显，铁水小 幅回落同比维持高位，钢材保持低库存。淡季悲观预期修复，价格重 心回升至4-5月区间。此次利好预计能刺激贸易商等中游环节补库， 提升现货流动性。后续则需要关注政策具体落实情况以及需求转弱程 度，预计短期震荡偏强运行。 1、铁元素方面，供应端压力较小，需求端钢企盈利率持稳 ...

报告日期：2025 年 7 月 4 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：美国国会众议院通过"大而美"法案 黄金：金银价格反弹。美国 6 月 ADP 就业人数减少 3.3 万人，大幅不及预期， 加剧市场对美联储年内提前降息预期。临近对等关税暂缓截止日令市场有所不安， 大而美法案推升财政赤字预期，美元表现疲软。近期美联储官员们表态继续维持 观望，尽管官员表示最快 7 月降息，但有通胀降低、贸易政策明朗等前提条件。 近期美国方面数据所显示关税政策的冲击比担忧中的要小，不过目前看贸易谈判 进展有限，财政部长暗示协议或要到 9 月达成。随着政策框架的修改，市场或为 未来宽松进行铺垫，如关税政策明朗，降息预期将进一步明确。黄金方面尽管长 期驱动仍然提供支撑，但价位较高上行迟疑。考虑 7 月关税暂缓截止期临近，警 惕特朗普相关政策的不确定性和关税再度升温的相关炒作。 一、当日主要新闻关注 1）国际新闻 美国商务部已通知全球三大芯片设计软件供应商——新思科技、楷登电子和西 门子，此前要求其在华业务必须申请政府许可的规定现已撤销。西门子称已全 面恢复中国客户对其软件和技术的访问权限，新思科技与楷登电子称正在逐步 重启相关服务。美 ...