Group 1: ETF Performance - In July, the top-performing ETFs included the Hang Seng Innovation Drug ETF and the Hong Kong Innovation Drug ETF, both rising over 26% [1] - The top 10 ETFs in July all recorded gains exceeding 23.9%, with year-to-date increases surpassing 86% [1] - Conversely, gold-related ETFs experienced declines, with several falling over 2% in July [1] Group 2: A-share Market Trends - The A-share market in August is expected to be influenced by policies, external events, and economic fundamentals [5][6] - Historical data shows that the Shanghai Composite Index has had a mixed performance in August, with 7 out of 15 years seeing gains [4] - Positive policies and limited external risks are likely to boost market sentiment in August [6] Group 3: Economic and Profit Recovery - Economic recovery trends are anticipated to continue in August, with improvements in industrial and overall A-share earnings growth [6] - The impact of mid-year earnings reports on A-share performance is diminishing, as seen in previous years [5] Group 4: Market Liquidity - Liquidity conditions are expected to remain accommodative in August, with potential increases in foreign capital inflows due to economic recovery expectations [6] - High market sentiment may lead to increased financing activities and new fund launches [6] Group 5: Investment Strategies - The market style in August is expected to be balanced, with growth and cyclical sectors likely to outperform [7] - The "barbell strategy" (combining technology and dividend stocks) may yield limited excess returns this August due to improving economic and profit expectations [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - In the short term, methanol prices will fluctuate within a range, and in the medium to long term, the methanol spot market may shift from strong to weak and fluctuate [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Price - On July 30, 2025, the price of Sichuan and Chongqing liquefied gas increased by 107 to 4450, international natural gas increased by 0.35 to 11.34, Taicang methanol increased by 10 to 2400, and Shandong methanol increased by 30 to 2290. The prices of MTBE increased by 50 to 5000. Other products' prices remained unchanged [1] Supply - On July 30, 2025, domestic methanol production decreased by 1500 to 276685, and domestic methanol operation rate decreased by 0.46 to 85.66. International operation rate remained unchanged at 69.71 [1] Inventory - On July 30, 2025, the arrival volume at the port, enterprise inventory, and port inventory of methanol remained unchanged, at 17.38, 339830, and 725800 respectively [1] Demand - On July 30, 2025, the order backlog of methanol remained unchanged at 244832 [1] Cost - On July 30, 2025, the cost of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol increased by 4.2 to 1881.5, Shandong coal - based methanol increased by 4.2 to 2131.5, and Shanxi coal - based methanol increased by 4.6 to 1984.5. Other products' costs remained unchanged [1] Operating Rate - On July 30, 2025, the operating rates of various methanol downstream products remained unchanged, with the MTO operating rate at 84.95, dimethyl ether at 5.19, formaldehyde at 37.19, wax fragrance at 92.69, chloride at 75.79, and MTBE at 69.01 [1] Associated Product Prices - On July 30, 2025, the prices of formaldehyde (Shandong), dimethyl ether, acetic acid, and methane chloride remained unchanged, at 925, 3330, 2250, and 2060 respectively. The price of MTBE increased by 50 to 5000 [1]

1. Market Index Performance - **Global Stock Indexes**: On July 31, 2025, the Dow Jones Industrial Index closed at 44,461.28, down 0.385% from the previous day; the Nasdaq Index closed at 21,129.67, up 0.149%; the S&P 500 closed at 6,362.90, down 0.125%; the Hang Seng Index closed at 25,176.93, down 1.362% [2]. - **SHIBOR and Dollar Index**: The SHIBOR overnight rate was 1.32, down 3.587% from the previous day; the dollar index was 99.79, down 0.179%. The dollar - to - RMB (CFETS) exchange rate remained unchanged [2]. - **Commodity Futures**: COMEX gold rose 0.078% to 3,327.90; COMEX silver fell 3.152% to 37.18; LME copper fell 0.745% to 9,730.00; NYMEX crude oil rose 1.516% to 70.30. Domestic metals, chemicals, and agricultural products also showed various price changes [2][3][5]. 2. Macro - economic News - **Policy Decisions**: The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee will hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee in October to discuss the 15th Five - Year Plan. The government will implement more active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, support key areas, and resolve local government debt risks [8]. - **Subsidy Policy**: The state plans to allocate about 90 billion yuan for childcare subsidies in 2025, and localities will open application channels by August 31 [8]. - **Industry Policies**: The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association will control new capacity in copper smelting and alumina, and promote the exit of backward capacity in some sectors [10]. 3. Morning Views on Major Commodities 3.1 Agricultural Products - **Peanuts**: The peanut market is expected to have a bullish and volatile short - term trend but will maintain a downward long - term trend, with a current pattern of weak supply and demand [12]. - **Oils and Fats**: The oils and fats market has light trading volume and stable basis. Brazil's soybean exports are expected to increase, and Malaysia's palm oil exports are also rising [12]. - **Sugar**: The sugar market is in an internal - strong and external - weak situation. With the arrival of processed sugar in August, the spot market may face pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [12]. - **Corn**: The corn market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to operate within the range of 2,300 - 2,320 yuan/ton [12]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are both weak. It is recommended to short on rallies, with attention to the 13,350 - yuan support level [13]. - **Hogs**: The hog market is in a state of oversupply. It is expected to fluctuate within a range [13]. - **Eggs**: After this round of price adjustment, the egg spot price is expected to be supported by Mid - Autumn Festival stocking. The futures market is adjusting the basis by following the spot price decline [14]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Caustic Soda**: The price of caustic soda in Shandong is expected to fluctuate slightly. It is recommended to pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [16]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea market price is stable. The supply is decreasing, and the inventory is increasing. The price is expected to operate within the range of 1,720 - 1,800 yuan/ton [16][18]. 3.3 Industrial Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: Copper prices may face pressure if the 50% tariff is imposed. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [18]. - **Alumina**: The fundamentals of alumina are in a surplus situation. The futures price may be strong, but it is necessary to be vigilant about macro - sentiment [18]. - **Steel Products**: The spot market for steel products has weak trading volume. The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to be supported at certain levels [18]. - **Ferroalloys**: Ferroalloys are currently driven by macro - expectations. It is recommended to operate cautiously [18][19]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal and coke markets are fluctuating and under pressure. The fifth round of coke price increase has started, but steel mills have not responded [19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to wait and see and short on rallies [19]. 3.4 Options and Financial Products - **Stock Index Futures and Options**: On July 30, A - share indexes showed mixed performance. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures and options changed, and the implied volatility of some options decreased. Trend investors can focus on cross - variety arbitrage opportunities, and volatility investors can buy straddles [19][21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The crude oil 2509 contract is expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being volatile, and an intraday trend of being volatile and slightly strong [1][5] - Due to improved macro factors and enhanced geopolitical sentiment in the oil market, the domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly strong trend on Thursday [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Time - cycle Analysis - **Short - term**: The short - term trend of the crude oil 2509 contract is volatile [1] - **Medium - term**: The medium - term trend of the crude oil 2509 contract is volatile [1] - **Intraday**: The intraday trend of the crude oil 2509 contract is volatile and slightly strong [1][5] 3.2 Price and Market Performance - On Wednesday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract closed slightly up 1.66% to 532.5 yuan per barrel [5] 3.3 Driving Logic - **Macro Factors**: This week, China and the US held the third round of economic and trade talks in Sweden. According to the consensus of both sides, they will continue to promote the extension of the 24% part of the suspended reciprocal tariffs by the US and China's counter - measures as scheduled. The risk appetite of the commodity market has recovered under the improved macro factors [5] - **Geopolitical Factors**: US President Trump declared his disappointment with Russian President Putin and will shorten the deadline given to Putin, which has enhanced the geopolitical sentiment in the oil market [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The US economic data is strong, and Powell maintains a wait - and - see stance, causing the US dollar index to rise continuously and the global risk appetite to heat up. In China, the economy grew higher than expected in H1 2025, but consumption and investment slowed down significantly in June. China has introduced a national child - rearing subsidy system, and a new round of Sino - US trade talks has extended the tariff truce period by 90 days, which helps boost domestic risk appetite in the short term [2]. - For assets, the stock index will run with a short - term upward bias, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; treasury bonds will experience a short - term high - level shock and correction, and cautious observation is advised; in the commodity sector, black products will have greater short - term fluctuations, with short - term cautious long positions; non - ferrous metals will have a short - term shock and correction, with short - term cautious observation; energy and chemicals will have a short - term shock and rebound, with cautious long positions; precious metals will have a short - term high - level shock, with cautious observation [2]. Group 3: Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - **Macro**: Overseas, the Fed keeps the interest rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, and Powell avoids guiding on a September rate cut. The US Q2 economic growth is 3%, exceeding the expected 2.4%, and the July ADP employment increased by 104,000, exceeding the expected 75,000. The strong US economic data and Powell's stance drive the US dollar index up. Domestically, China's H1 economic growth is higher than expected, but June consumption and investment slowed down. China has introduced a national child - rearing subsidy system, and Sino - US trade talks extended the tariff truce by 90 days [2]. - **Stock Index**: Driven by sectors such as film and television, oil and gas, and food and beverage, the domestic stock market rose slightly. The short - term macro - upward drive has increased, and follow - up attention should be paid to Sino - US trade talks and domestic incremental policies. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. - **Precious Metals**: The precious metals market declined on Wednesday. As trade agreements are reached, market risk appetite recovers, and precious metals are under pressure. The Fed maintains the interest rate, and the ADP employment report is strong, weakening the safe - haven property of precious metals. In the short term, precious metals are under pressure, but the medium - to - long - term upward pattern remains. Attention should be paid to the key support levels for long - term position allocation [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot steel market rebounded slightly on Wednesday, and the futures price rose and then fell. After major macro - events, the actual demand has not improved significantly. The supply will remain high, but production restrictions may suppress it. The steel market should be treated with a short - term shock - upward bias [5][6]. - **Iron Ore**: On Wednesday, the iron ore futures and spot prices declined. The iron - making production decreased slightly last week, and the demand growth is limited. If production restrictions are implemented in August - September, the iron - making production may decline. The supply increased slightly this week, and the port inventory increased slightly. The iron ore price will fluctuate within a range in the short term [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Wednesday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat, and the futures prices diverged. The production enthusiasm in Inner Mongolia is high, and the production in the main producing areas of silicon iron is stable. The short - term price of ferroalloys is expected to be strong [7]. - **Soda Ash**: On Wednesday, the main soda ash contract was weak. The supply is in an over - supply pattern, and the demand is weak. Market concerns about capacity exit support the bottom price, but the long - term price is suppressed. After a disappointing meeting, the price corrected [8]. - **Glass**: On Wednesday, the main glass contract was weak. The supply pressure increases during the off - season, and there are expectations of production cuts. The terminal real estate industry is weak, and the demand is poor. The profit increased slightly. The short - term price is supported by policies, but it corrected after a disappointing meeting [8][9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The US plans to impose 15% - 20% tariffs on countries without trade agreements, which is sentimentally positive for copper prices. The copper concentrate spot TC has rebounded slightly, and Comex copper inventories are at a multi - year high [10]. - **Aluminum**: On Tuesday, the aluminum price fell slightly. Fundamentally, it is weak, with domestic and LME inventories increasing. The impact of relevant policies is limited, and the price increase is expected to be limited. Wait for the sentiment to cool down [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the production cost of recycled aluminum plants has increased, leading to losses and production cuts. It is the off - season, and the demand is weak. The short - term price is expected to be strong but with limited upside [10]. - **Tin**: The supply is recovering, and the mine supply is expected to be loose. The terminal demand is weak, and the inventory has increased slightly. The short - term price will fluctuate, and the medium - term upside is limited [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On Tuesday, the main lithium carbonate contract fell. The prices of lithium ore and lithium carbonate products decreased. Due to policy uncertainties, short - term observation is recommended, and wait for the price to stabilize [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: On Tuesday, the main industrial silicon contract rose. The price of East China oxygen - containing 553 is 9800 yuan/ton. The price fluctuated greatly, and short - term observation is recommended [13]. - **Polysilicon**: On Tuesday, the main polysilicon contract rose significantly. The prices of related products were stable. The production in July is expected to increase by about 10% month - on - month. There are many rumors in the market, and direct short - selling is risky [14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Trump threatens to punish India for buying Russian oil, causing concerns about supply tightening. However, the increase in US crude oil inventories limits the price increase. The oil price will remain strong and fluctuate in the short term [15]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price has been stable recently. The support from the crude oil price has increased slightly. The factory inventory has decreased slightly, and the demand is average. The price will follow the crude oil price, but the upside is limited [15]. - **PX**: The tight supply of PX continues, but the external price has decreased. The high profit of PX may cause downstream negative feedback. The short - term price will fluctuate, and the upside is limited [16]. - **PTA**: The trading volume of PTA is weak. The inventory accumulation has slowed down, and the downstream inventory has decreased, but the profit has not increased. The processing fee is low, and the price is supported by the crude oil price. Wait for the August stocking rhythm to change [16][17]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol price has returned to a short - term range. The port inventory has decreased slightly, and the factory inventory has decreased slightly. The short - term price will fluctuate within a range [17]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber price decreased due to the weakening of the sector. The terminal orders are average, and the inventory has decreased slightly. Wait for the August peak - season stocking [17]. - **Methanol**: The methanol price was supported by coal prices but was restricted by factors such as device restart and import increase. It is expected to return to a shock range, and conservative investors should observe [17]. - **PP**: Affected by multiple policies, the PP price is still supported to some extent. The supply is loose, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be weak and fluctuate [18]. - **LLDPE**: The polyethylene futures price corrected. In the short term, it will be affected by policies. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply is in an over - supply pattern, and the price is expected to decline [18]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The overnight CBOT November soybean contract fell. Argentina's soybean exports exceeded expectations, and the pre - sale of new - season US soybeans is slow, putting pressure on the price [19]. - **Soybean Meal/Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic soybean meal basis is split. The import volume in August - September is expected to be high, and the USDA report in August may be bearish. The cost expectation of soybean meal will weaken [20]. - **Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil**: The spread between soybean oil and palm oil has narrowed. The export of domestic soybean oil is expected to increase, but the domestic demand is weak. The rapeseed inventory is low, supporting the rapeseed oil price [21]. - **Palm Oil**: Affected by the decline of US soybean oil, palm oil may weaken. The domestic palm oil inventory is accumulating, and the Malaysian palm oil production is increasing while the export is decreasing [21]. - **Pigs**: The pig price has fallen to a new low this year. In August, the supply may increase, and the price will be under pressure until late August. The futures price of some contracts is too high, and the basis is low, suitable for industrial selling hedging [22]. - **Corn**: The corn futures technical indicators are bearish, but there is no logical driver. The spot price is stable. There may be an oversold risk in the far - month contracts. The opening price of new - season corn is expected to be slightly optimistic [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For Treasury bonds, it's expected that there won't be a trending market, and caution is advised [6][7]. - Regarding stock indices, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and going long on stock index futures is considered [10][11]. - For precious metals, the long - term bull market trend is expected to continue, and going long on gold futures is considered [13][14]. - In the case of rebar and hot - rolled coils, investors can focus on low - position long opportunities after the correction [15]. - For iron ore, investors can look for low - position buying opportunities after the correction [17][18]. - For coking coal and coke, investors are advised to wait and see [20][21]. - Regarding ferroalloys, long - position exit opportunities can be considered when the market continues to rise, and long positions at low - support intervals can be considered if there is a decline [23]. - For crude oil, investors can focus on long opportunities in the main contract [26]. - For fuel oil, investors can focus on long opportunities in the main contract [28]. - For synthetic rubber, wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [29][31]. - For natural rubber, it's expected to oscillate strongly [32][33]. - For PVC, it's expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [34][38]. - For urea, it will fluctuate in the short term and be bullish in the medium term [39][40]. - For PX, it may oscillate and adjust in the future, and investors should participate cautiously [42]. - For PTA, it may oscillate in the short term, and investors should participate in the range [43]. - For ethylene glycol, investors should be cautious about the upside space in the short term and participate in the range [44][45]. - For staple fiber, it may oscillate following the cost, and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [46]. - For bottle chips, it's expected to oscillate following the cost [47][48]. - For glass, continue to pay attention to spot trading and regional de - stocking; in the long - term, focus on the implementation of capacity clearance of old production lines [49][50]. - For caustic soda, the positive support is relatively limited, and it's affected by macro - sentiment recently [52]. - For pulp, the pulp price is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and pay attention to policy trends and actual spot transactions [54][55]. - For lithium carbonate, it's advisable to watch more and act less and control risks [56]. - For copper, there is still a basis for an upward trend [58]. - For tin, it's expected to oscillate [59]. - For nickel, it's expected to oscillate [60]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, consider long opportunities in the support interval for soybean meal after adjustment; for soybean oil, consider call option opportunities in the support interval after the decline [62]. - For palm oil, consider long opportunities after the correction [64]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, consider long opportunities [65]. - For cotton, it's recommended to short far - month contracts in batches at high prices [67][68]. - For sugar, it's recommended to wait and see [71]. - For apples, it's recommended to wait and see [75]. - For live pigs, consider holding previous short positions [77]. - For eggs, consider a 9 - 10 reverse spread [80]. - For corn and starch, consider virtual - value call option opportunities in the previous low - level interval for near - month corn contracts; corn starch follows the corn market [83]. - For logs, the market has returned to the actual spot situation [87]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - Last trading day, treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The central bank conducted 495.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 325.1 billion yuan. The national parenting subsidy system implementation plan was announced [5]. - The current macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the treasury bond yield is at a relatively low level [6]. Stock Indices - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The national industrial and information technology conference emphasized measures to expand domestic demand [8][9]. - The domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, but asset valuations are low, and China's economy has resilience. The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic [10]. Precious Metals - Last trading day, gold and silver futures closed down. The US and the EU reached a 15% tariff agreement [12]. - The global trade and financial environment is complex, and the long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue [13]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Last trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fell sharply. Policy expectations dominate the market, and the actual supply - demand pattern is secondary [15]. Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures fell sharply. Policy expectations are the core influencing factor. The supply - demand pattern is still strong, but it may adjust in the short term [17]. Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, coking coal and coke futures hit the daily limit down. The direct cause was the position - limit measure, and the deep - seated reason was the excessive previous rise. The supply - contraction policy has become a reality [20]. Ferroalloys - Last trading day, manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures closed down. The supply of manganese ore has increased, and the supply of ferroalloys is still high while the demand is weak [22][23]. Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil opened high and closed low. Fund managers reduced their net long positions, and the number of US oil rigs decreased. OPEC+ is unlikely to change the production plan [24][25]. Fuel Oil - Last trading day, fuel oil oscillated downward. The fuel oil inventory in Japan and Singapore has changed. The supply in the Asian market is sufficient, but trade agreements are beneficial to the shipping market [27]. Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, synthetic rubber futures closed down. The raw material price has rebounded, and the supply and demand situation has changed. Wait for the market to stabilize [29][30]. Natural Rubber - Last trading day, natural rubber futures closed down. The supply is affected by rainfall, and the demand has recovered slightly. It's expected to oscillate strongly [32]. PVC - Last trading day, PVC futures closed down. The supply is excessive, but the downward space may be limited. It's expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [34]. Urea - Last trading day, urea futures closed down. The supply - demand situation has weakened recently, and it will fluctuate in the short term and be bullish in the medium term [39]. PX - Last trading day, PX futures rose. The supply load has decreased, and the import volume has changed. The short - term supply - demand balance is tight, and it may oscillate and adjust [41][42]. PTA - Last trading day, PTA futures fell. The supply and demand have changed little, and the cost has some support. It may oscillate in the short term [43]. Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, ethylene glycol futures fell. The supply pressure has increased, but the inventory has decreased. Be cautious about the upside space in the short term [44]. Staple Fiber - Last trading day, staple fiber futures fell. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. It may oscillate following the cost [46]. Bottle Chips - Last trading day, bottle chips futures fell. The device maintenance has increased, and the demand has recovered. It's expected to oscillate following the cost [47]. Glass - Last trading day, glass futures fell. The inventory has decreased, and the price in some regions has risen. The market sentiment fluctuates, and the follow - up needs to focus on spot trading and de - stocking [49][50]. Caustic Soda - Last trading day, caustic soda futures fell. The production has increased, and the inventory has changed. The positive support is limited [51][52]. Pulp - Last trading day, pulp futures fell. The supply has an expansion tendency, and the demand is weak. The pulp price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [53][54]. Lithium Carbonate - Last trading day, lithium carbonate futures fell. The supply is abundant, and the demand has improved slightly, but the trading is inactive. Be cautious and control risks [56]. Copper - Last trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated downward. The spot premium is expected to remain weak, but there is still a basis for an upward trend [58]. Tin - Last trading day, Shanghai tin oscillated. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the consumption is weak. It's expected to oscillate [59]. Nickel - Last trading day, Shanghai nickel fell. The supply is excessive, and the consumption is not optimistic. It's expected to oscillate [60]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Last trading day, soybean oil and soybean meal futures closed down. The US soybean yield is expected to be good, and the domestic supply is relatively loose. Consider different investment opportunities for soybean oil and soybean meal [61][62]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil fell. The export volume has decreased, and the domestic inventory has increased. Consider long opportunities after the correction [63][64]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed weakened. The domestic import volume has changed, and the inventory situation is different. Consider long opportunities [65]. Cotton - Last trading day, domestic cotton oscillated at a high level. The global supply - demand is expected to be loose, and it's recommended to short far - month contracts in batches at high prices [66][67][68]. Sugar - Last trading day, domestic sugar oscillated strongly. The Brazilian sugar production is lower than expected, and the domestic inventory and import volume have changed. It's recommended to wait and see [69][71]. Apples - Last trading day, domestic apple futures rose sharply and then fell. The expected production reduction has been falsified. It's recommended to wait and see [73][74][75]. Live Pigs - The national average price of live pigs fell. The supply is abundant, and the demand is average. Consider holding previous short positions [76][77]. Eggs - The average price of eggs in the main production and sales areas fell. The supply is increasing, and it's recommended to consider a 9 - 10 reverse spread [78][80]. Corn and Starch - Last trading day, corn and starch futures rose. The US corn yield is expected to be good, and the domestic supply - demand is approaching balance. Consider option opportunities for corn and follow the corn market for starch [81][83]. Logs - Last trading day, log futures rose. The supply has increased, and the inventory has decreased. The market has returned to the actual spot situation [84][85][87].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The market is influenced by various factors such as geopolitical events, economic data, and policy expectations. Different asset classes show different trends and potential investment opportunities and risks. Traders should pay attention to market sentiment changes, fundamental factors, and policy developments [2][3][6] - For most commodities, short - term price fluctuations are affected by market sentiment, especially the "anti -内卷" and supply - side reform expectations. However, in the long - term, fundamental factors such as supply and demand will play a more important role. Some commodities may face price adjustments due to over - speculation, while others may have potential based on their own fundamentals [33][37] Summary by Category Macro - Financial Index Futures - News includes Sino - US economic and trade talks, industrial policies, and commodity futures market performance. The market has seen an all - around rise with increased trading volume. It is recommended to focus on the end - of - month Politburo meeting and consider going long on IF index futures on dips [2] Treasury Bonds - On Monday, Treasury bond futures rose. The economic data in the second quarter was resilient, but the "rush - to - export" effect may weaken. The central bank maintains a supportive attitude towards funds, and interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term. Short - term market sentiment in commodities and stocks suppresses the bond market, and it is recommended to enter the market on dips [3][4][5] Precious Metals - Domestic precious metals prices fell slightly, while overseas prices rose slightly. Geopolitical risks and trade uncertainties have eased, and US economic data is resilient, putting short - term pressure on precious metals prices. However, the Fed's monetary policy may turn dovish, and it is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy, especially focusing on silver [6][7] Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - The US is close to a trade agreement with the EU, and the dollar index rises. Copper prices are expected to be weak and fluctuate due to uncertainties in the Fed's meeting and US copper tariffs, as well as seasonal weak demand and expected increase in imports [9][10] Aluminum - Aluminum prices fluctuated. The domestic black - series commodities weakened, and aluminum inventories increased. Without unexpected policy announcements, market sentiment may be under pressure. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate weakly due to low - level inventories and weak downstream demand [11] Zinc - Zinc prices fell. Domestic zinc ore supply is loose, and zinc ingot supply is expected to increase. In the long - term, zinc prices are bearish. Short - term factors such as Fed's dovish sentiment and overseas structural risks need to be considered, and caution is needed for price fluctuations [12] Lead - Lead prices fell slightly. Lead ingot supply is marginally tightening, and downstream demand is expected to improve. Environmental inspections may affect smelter operations, and there is a possibility of price strengthening. Caution is needed for price fluctuations [13][14] Nickel - Nickel prices fell. Nickel ore prices are stable, and nickel iron has an oversupply problem. In the short - term, the macro - environment has cooled, and nickel prices are expected to decline further. It is recommended to hold short positions or go short on rallies [15] Tin - Tin prices fell. Short - term tin ore supply is still tight, but downstream demand is weak. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate within a certain range [16] Carbonate Lithium - Carbonate lithium prices fell sharply. The commodity market has cooled, and there is uncertainty in capital games. It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, and holders should choose appropriate entry points [17][18] Alumina - Alumina prices fell. The supply - side contraction policy needs further observation, and the over - capacity pattern may be difficult to change. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to relevant policies [19] Stainless Steel - Stainless steel prices fell. The market atmosphere has weakened, and the supply is expected to increase. If downstream demand cannot keep up, prices may face pressure. Attention should be paid to macro - news and downstream demand [20] Cast Aluminum Alloy - Cast aluminum alloy prices fell. The downstream is in the off - season, and supply and demand are weak. Although there is cost support, there is upward pressure on prices [21][22] Black Building Materials Steel - Steel prices fell. The commodity market sentiment has cooled, and the cost has decreased. Export volume has decreased, and the fundamentals of different steel products vary. Attention should be paid to policy signals and downstream demand [24][25] Iron Ore - Iron ore prices fell. Overseas shipments are increasing, and demand is high but slightly declining. Inventory has increased slightly. Short - term prices may adjust, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and macro - policies [26][27] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass prices fluctuated. Short - term prices are affected by macro - policies and may be volatile. In the long - term, they depend on real estate policies and supply - side adjustments [28] - Soda ash prices fell. Supply has decreased, and inventory pressure has eased. Short - term prices are expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and look for short - selling opportunities in the long - term [29] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices fell. Short - term prices are affected by market sentiment, and there is a risk of a sharp decline as sentiment fades. It is recommended that speculative positions wait and see, and relevant enterprises consider hedging [30][31][33] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon prices fell. Short - term prices are expected to enter a high - volatility and wide - range oscillation stage. It is recommended to wait and see [34] Energy and Chemicals Rubber - Rubber prices fell. Supply concerns may ease, and there are differences between bulls and bears. It is recommended to wait and see and consider a spread trading strategy [39][40][41] Crude Oil - Crude oil prices showed different trends. The fundamental market is healthy, and there is upward momentum, but seasonal demand weakness in August will limit the upside. It is recommended to go long on dips and set a short - term target price [42] Methanol - Methanol prices fell. Short - term prices are affected by market sentiment, and there is a risk of decline as sentiment cools. Fundamentally, supply may increase and demand may weaken, and it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options on rallies [43] Urea - Urea prices fell. Short - term prices are affected by market sentiment. Fundamentally, supply is decreasing and demand is weak. Exports are an important factor, and it is recommended to look for long - position opportunities on dips [44] Styrene - Styrene prices fell. The market expects positive policies, and the cost side provides support. The BZN spread is expected to repair, and prices are expected to follow the cost side and oscillate upward [45][46] PVC - PVC prices fell. The fundamentals are weak with strong supply and weak demand and high valuation. Attention should be paid to export conditions and the risk of price decline after sentiment fades [47] Ethylene Glycol - Ethylene glycol prices fell. Supply is increasing, and demand recovery is limited. Inventory is expected to increase, and short - term valuation may decline [48] PTA - PTA prices fell. Supply is expected to increase and inventory to accumulate. Demand is gradually improving, and it is recommended to look for long - position opportunities following PX [49] Para - Xylene - Para - xylene prices fell. The load is high, and downstream demand is recovering. It is expected to continue to reduce inventory, and it is recommended to look for long - position opportunities following crude oil [50] Polyethylene (PE) - PE prices fell. The market expects positive policies, and the cost side provides support. The short - term contradiction has shifted, and prices are expected to follow the cost side and oscillate upward. It is recommended to hold short positions [51] Polypropylene (PP) - PP prices fell. Supply and demand are weak in the off - season, and prices are expected to oscillate strongly in July under the influence of macro - expectations [52][53] Agricultural Products Live Pigs - Live pig prices were stable to weak. The market is trading on policy intervention, and the supply - surplus logic has changed. It is recommended to focus on spread trading opportunities [55] Eggs - Egg prices fell. Supply is stable, and demand is average. Short - term prices of near - month contracts will oscillate, and it is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities in post - festival contracts [56] Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - US soybean prices fell, and domestic soybean meal prices were weak. North American weather is favorable, and domestic soybean meal inventory is high. It is recommended to go long on dips in the cost - range and look for opportunities to widen the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal [57][59][60] Oils and Fats - Palm oil exports and production data showed different trends. The domestic oil inventory increased slightly. EPA policies and other factors support the price center, but there are also bearish factors. Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate [61][62][63] Sugar - Sugar prices fell. Brazilian port sugar shipments increased, and domestic import supply pressure may increase. Zhengzhou sugar prices are likely to continue to decline [64][65] Cotton - Cotton prices fell. Downstream consumption is average, and there is a potential negative factor of additional import quotas. The price has partially reflected the positive expectation, and caution is needed [66]

Group 1: General Information - Report date: July 29, 2025 [2] - Report type: MEG Daily Report [1] Group 2:行情回顾与操作建议 - Futures market: On the 28th, the main contract 2509 of ethylene glycol futures opened at 4545, reached a high of 4545, a low of 4423, settled at 4469, and closed at 4436, down 93 from the previous trading day's settlement price. The total volume was 241,057 lots, and the open interest was 258,742 lots. The EG2509 and EG2601 contracts both closed at 4436, down 93, with open interest of 258,742 lots, down 21,692 [7] - Market outlook: Currently, the macro - level positive support has weakened, leading to an overall oscillating correction in the commodity market. As the supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol has not changed significantly, it is expected to continue the correction trend following the commodities [7] Group 3: Industry News - International oil prices: On Friday (July 25), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for September 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $65.16 per barrel, down $0.87 or 1.32% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $65.00 - $66.74. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for September 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $68.44 per barrel, down $0.74 or 1.07% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $68.31 - $69.86 [8] - Ethylene glycol market prices: The mainstream transaction price in the Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol market was 4480 - 4515 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The negotiation range in the Dongguan market was 4450 - 4500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. The negotiation range in the Fujian market was also 4450 - 4500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [8] Group 4: Data Overview - Data includes PTA - MEG spread, MEG price, MEG futures price, spot - futures price difference, international crude oil futures main contract closing price, raw material price index (ethylene), MEG downstream product prices, and MEG downstream product inventory, all sourced from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][15][16][18]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the financial sector, the short - term strong US dollar suppresses gold prices, the US dollar index is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short - term, and the bond market sentiment will improve this week but with continued market fluctuations. The implementation of the national parenting subsidy system is expected to drive a 0.2% increase in social retail. - In the commodity sector, the supply and demand of various commodities vary. For example, the supply of coking coal is slightly tight, the supply of soybeans is expected to be abundant, and the supply of some energy - chemical products is affected by factors such as production restrictions and inventory changes [13][17][20]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US Treasury plans to borrow $1.007 trillion from July to September, $450 billion more than the April forecast. Gold prices are under pressure from the strong US dollar, and the market is volatile this week. Short - term, gold is in a volatile state, and there is a risk of decline [13][14]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Thailand expects a favorable trade agreement from the US after the cease - fire with Cambodia. Trump may impose a 15% - 20% tariff on imports from countries without a separate trade agreement and shortens the cease - fire deadline for Russia. The US dollar index is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short - term [15][16][17]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The national parenting subsidy system will provide an annual subsidy of 3,600 yuan per child. It is expected to increase annual fiscal expenditure by over 110 billion yuan and drive a 0.2% increase in social retail. It is recommended to allocate evenly among stock index varieties [19][20][21]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US July Dallas Fed business activity index is 0.9, better than expected. The US Treasury raises its Q3 borrowing forecast. The market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short - term, but there is a risk of correction [22][23]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducts 495.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 325.1 billion yuan. The bond market sentiment will improve this week, but there are still uncertainties, and it is recommended to enter and exit quickly when going long [24][25]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - Environmental inspections in Wuhai limit coal production, and coking coal supply is tight. Coke prices are rising, but there are risks due to rapid price increases. It is necessary to manage positions [26][27]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - US soybean good - to - excellent ratings rise to 70%, and Brazil's July soybean exports are expected to exceed last year. Domestic soybean meal inventory increases. The futures price is expected to be volatile, and focus on the Sino - US talks this week [28][30]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - As of July 25, soybean oil inventory decreases slightly, and palm oil inventory increases. Malaysian palm oil production increases in July. The market is expected to be under pressure, but palm oil has support. Soybean oil prices are hard to rise due to sufficient supply [31][32][34]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Guangtang Group aims for a sugarcane order area of 2.18 million mu by the end of 2025. Pakistan bids to buy 100,000 tons of sugar. The Sino - Thai AEO mutual recognition agreement will be implemented on August 1. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be volatile, and focus on the resistance level of 5,900 yuan [35][36][38]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Corn starch spot prices are stable. Supply pressure increases due to the resumption of some enterprises' production. Starch enterprises' losses may continue or expand [38][39][40]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Northeast China is expected to have more precipitation in the next 10 days, increasing waterlogging risks. Corn futures show differentiation. It is recommended to hold short positions in new - crop contracts and look for opportunities to add positions on rebounds [41]. 2.7 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - China's transportation fixed - asset investment in H1 is 1.6474 trillion yuan. Steel prices decline due to changes in market sentiment. It is recommended to be cautious in the short - term [42][43][44]. 2.8 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Northern port steam coal prices are stable. Coal consumption growth slows down, and supply is slightly weak. Pay attention to coal consumption growth and port inventory changes [45]. 2.9 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - A Canadian mining company plans to develop an iron ore project. Iron ore prices follow the decline of coal prices. The fundamentals may weaken later. It is recommended to reduce positions [46][47]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Alumina) - An aluminum plant in Xinjiang's alumina tender price rises. The domestic alumina surplus is increasing, and the futures price falls after rising. It is recommended to wait and see [48][49]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - A lithium project in Zimbabwe makes progress, and a lithium refinery project in Morocco is advancing. The futures exchange limits positions, and the price lacks upward momentum. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of holding inventory for reverse arbitrage [50][51][52]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Turkey raises the import reference price of some photovoltaic products. Polysilicon prices are affected by the market. The price is expected to be between 41,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton in the short - term, and consider buying on dips [53][55][56]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The price of silicon coal in some areas rises. Industrial silicon production increases, and inventory changes. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities or sell out - of - the - money call options [57][58][59]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - LME nickel inventory increases. The nickel price is affected by market sentiment. In the short - term, it may be volatile, and in the medium - term, it is expected to decline. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [60][61][62]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - A lead smelting system in Guizhou starts production, and lead ingot social inventory changes little. The lead price is affected by the macro - environment. It is recommended to buy on dips in the short - term and wait and see for arbitrage [63][64][66]. 2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Bolivian zinc concentrate production decreases in May, and domestic zinc ingot inventory increases. The zinc price is affected by the macro - environment. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, pay attention to positive calendar spread arbitrage, and wait and see for cross - border trading [67][68][69]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - A refinery's LPG - related device is about to start. The LPG price is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term [70][71][72]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Russia temporarily bans gasoline exports. Oil prices rebound. The market expects OPEC+ to increase production. The oil price is expected to be range - bound in the short - term [73][74]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - Asphalt refinery inventory increases, and social inventory decreases slightly. The asphalt demand is weak, and the price is expected to be volatile [75][76][77]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - Styrene port inventory increases. The styrene price is affected by the macro - environment. Pay attention to macro - sentiment changes [77][78][79]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - Urea prices in North China decline. The urea market is expected to be volatile in the short - term [80][81][82]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (PX) - PX prices decline. The PX price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the long - term, but with large short - term fluctuations [83][84]. 2.23 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - PTA prices decline. The PTA price is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, but with large short - term fluctuations [85][86]. 2.24 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - Soda ash inventory decreases. The soda ash price drops sharply. The market is volatile, and it is recommended to wait for policy guidance [87]. 2.25 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - Float glass prices in the Shahe market change. The glass price drops, and the market sentiment is weak. It is recommended to be cautious in single - side trading and focus on the strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash [88][89]. 2.26 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle chip factory export and domestic prices decrease. Bottle chip production decreases, but demand is weak. It is recommended to look for opportunities to expand processing margins on dips [90][91][92].

Market Performance - The market experienced a rebound on July 28, with the ChiNext Index leading the gains, closing up by 0.96% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.12%, and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.44% [1] Sector Performance - The computing hardware sector saw a significant surge, while innovative drug concept stocks maintained strong performance [1] - Active performance was noted in military and commercial aerospace concept stocks [1] - Conversely, cyclical stocks such as steel and coal experienced collective adjustments [1] ETF Performance - All ETFs that rose were related to innovative drugs, with the East Money Fund's Innovative Drug ETF (159622) leading the market with a 4.1% increase [3] - Other notable ETFs in the innovative drug sector also saw gains, with the Hong Kong Innovative Drug 50 ETF (513780) up by 4.04% and the Hong Kong Innovative Drug ETF (513120) up by 4.01% [3] Policy Updates - On July 24, the National Medical Insurance Administration announced the initiation of the 11th batch of centralized procurement, optimizing specific rules regarding the selection process [2] - The new rules will no longer simply use the lowest bid as a reference point, and companies with the lowest bids must publicly justify their pricing [2] Industry Insights - According to a report by Industrial Securities, the AACR and ASCO meetings this year showcased numerous domestic innovative drugs exceeding expectations, with anticipation for data releases from upcoming industry conferences [4] - There has been ongoing progress in foreign licensing transactions for innovative drugs, with expectations for more high-quality domestic products to explore international opportunities [4]