1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall market is influenced by factors such as trade negotiations, economic data, and policy changes. Different commodities show various trends and investment opportunities based on their specific fundamentals [1][2][3]. - Trade war impacts are gradually weakening, but uncertainties still exist, affecting market sentiment and price trends [1][4][5]. - Some commodities are expected to be in a state of supply - demand imbalance, leading to price fluctuations and investment strategies [3][4][6]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - **Gold**: Market showed Friday oscillations, with international gold priced in London nearly closing at $3200/ounce. Suggested to build long positions opportunistically due to the unchanged de - dollarization logic [1]. - **Silver**: Recommended to short on rebounds or go long on the gold - silver ratio [1]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Expected to trade in a range due to short - term risk preference decline, weak dollar, and tight spot market, despite inventory accumulation [2]. - **Aluminum**: Likely to maintain a sideways movement in the short term as downstream consumption weakens, and it's advised to wait and see [2]. - **Alumina**: Prices are expected to be strong until an agreement is reached between mining companies and the Guinea government, and a light - position long strategy is recommended [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: With weak fundamentals and limited downward momentum, it's advisable to wait and see [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Suggested to hold short positions or short on rebounds as the market is in a surplus and the bearish sentiment is strong [3]. - **Polysilicon**: Expected to bottom - out and oscillate in the short term, and it's recommended to take profit on long positions and consider shorting the 07 contract later [3]. - **Tin**: Forecasted to trade in a range due to weak risk preference and a weak dollar [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: Futures prices are expected to have wide - range oscillations, and it's recommended to close short positions and consider certain arbitrage strategies [4]. - **Iron Ore**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate widely, and it's advised to close short positions and try long positions on the 2509 contract [4]. - **Coking Coal**: It's recommended to wait and see as the market is in a relatively balanced state [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: U.S. soybeans are expected to be range - bound, and domestic soybeans are short - term weak and mid - term follow the international market [5]. - **Corn**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate and consolidate as the spot market is weak and trade conditions ease [5]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar market is expected to be in surplus in the 25/26 season, and the short - term is expected to rebound while the long - term is bearish [6]. - **Cotton**: It's recommended to wait and see and adopt a range - trading strategy [6]. - **Palm Oil**: In a seasonal weak phase, and later attention should be paid to production and biodiesel policies [6]. - **Eggs**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate as supply is high and demand is weak with cost support [6]. - **Hogs**: Futures prices are expected to decline as supply increases and demand is in the off - season [6]. - **Apples**: Prices are expected to remain high in the short term, but attention should be paid to fruit consumption and weather conditions [6]. Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE**: Expected to be strong in the short term and weak in the long term. Short - term long positions can be considered, and long - term short positions on far - month contracts are recommended [8]. - **PTA**: PX and PTA are in a de - stocking state, and it's recommended to take profit on long - short spreads and be cautious with single - side trading [8]. - **Rubber**: Bearish sentiment is strong, and it's recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [8]. - **Glass**: Prices are expected to decline slightly, and it's recommended to sell call options above 1250 [8]. - **PP**: Expected to be strong in the short term and weak in the long term. Short - term long positions can be considered, and long - term short positions on far - month contracts are recommended [9]. - **MEG**: Prices are expected to be strong in the short term, but long positions should be taken with caution due to high valuation [9]. - **Crude Oil**: Recommended as a short - side allocation due to high supply pressure and potential negative factors [9]. - **Styrene**: Expected to be strong in the short term, and a long - short spread strategy is recommended [10]. - **Soda Ash**: It's recommended to close short positions gradually and consider selling out - of - the - money call options [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: Expected to stop falling and stabilize, waiting for non - aluminum downstream demand to recover [10]. Shipping - **European Line Container Shipping**: The 06 contract should be chased with caution, and an 8 - 10 long - short spread strategy is recommended [11].

针对关税问题，欧盟突然强硬起来！ 来看详细报道！ 欧盟对美强硬表态 据参考消息援引西班牙《阿贝赛报》网站15日报道，欧盟成员国贸易部长已经排除接受与美国达成类似英国所 签署协议的可能性，英国已经承担了10%的基础关税，以避免对汽车和金属征收其他税费。 报道称，15日的欧盟贸易部长会议是在华盛顿决定"暂停"所谓"对等关税"90天之后的第37天召开的。根据"对 等关税"，美国将对欧盟产品征收20%的关税。布鲁塞尔已经威胁说，如果达不成协议，将以两个独立的一揽 子方案进行反击，而这两个方案可能会影响到总价值达1160亿欧元的美国商品。 欧盟理事会轮值主席国波兰的经济部长米哈乌·巴拉诺夫斯基表示，欧洲不会"满足于"与英国类似的协议。他 说："我认为我们可以取得比保持很高关税更好的结果。" 报道称，此前欧盟向美国提出相互取消任何工业产品的所有关税，但特朗普政府仍执迷不悟地要求欧盟对其在 欧洲销售的产品免征增值税。 另据观察者网援引《华尔街日报》15日报道，数名欧盟国家官员当天放风称，欧盟与美国的关税谈判正在取得 进展，欧盟寻求达成一项关税降幅大于美英、中美协议的贸易协定。有欧盟官员指出，美国给英国和中国开出 的条件不足 ...

镍库存195222吨，减少3924吨。 铝库存395450吨，减少1825吨。 伦敦金属交易所（LME）：铜库存179375吨，减少5275吨。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights that recent economic data from the U.S. has opened up greater space for adjustments in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, leading to increased expectations for a loosening cycle [2] - Key economic indicators released on Thursday showed a comprehensive weakening: the Producer Price Index (PPI) unexpectedly fell by 0.5% month-on-month, significantly deviating from the market expectation of a 0.2% increase; retail sales growth plummeted from 1.7% in March to just 0.1%; and manufacturing output declined by 0.4% year-on-year, exceeding the expected drop of 0.2% [2] - The bond market reacted sharply, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping by 11 basis points to 4.435%, marking the largest decline in nearly two months; the more policy-sensitive 2-year yield fell by 9.2 basis points to 3.961% [2] Group 2 - Current consumer weakness may have surpassed the impact of tariffs, indicating a deeper demand contraction, as warned by Macquarie strategist Thierry Wizman [2] - Walmart's decision to incorporate tariff costs into its pricing structure signifies that pressure on the consumer side may transition from expectation to a tangible impact [2] - In the silver market, the resistance levels are noted at the 7.690-7.760 range, while support levels are identified at 7.330-7.390 [3]

昨日，三大股指盘中弱势下探，尾盘加速下行。截至收盘，沪指跌0.68%报3380.82点，深证成指跌 1.62%报10186.45点，创业板指跌1.91%报2043.25点，科创50指数跌1.26%，沪深北三市合计成交11906 亿元，较此前一日减少近1600亿元。行业方面，半导体、券商、保险、汽车、电力、钢铁等板块走低， 农业、食品饮料、医药、煤炭等板块拉升，合成生物、宠物经济、粮食概念等活跃。 东莞证券表示，市场自4月初回调后当前已有所修复，市场情绪亦升至相对稳定区间。中美贸易争端缓 和、"一行一局一会"政策逐步落地等因素有助于坚定投资者长期信心、稳住资本市场预期，不断为市场 积攒做多动能。但考虑到上方或存在一定抛压，短期内市场或延续震荡态势，中长期维度仍坚定看好中 国资产重估。 中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅近日发布关于持续推进城市更新行动的意见，提出到2030年，城市更新 行动实施取得重要进展，城市更新体制机制不断完善，城市开发建设方式转型初见成效，安全发展基础 更加牢固，服务效能不断提高，人居环境明显改善，经济业态更加丰富，文化遗产有效保护，风貌特色 更加彰显，城市成为人民群众高品质生活的空间。 国资委 ...

Group 1: Brokerage Sector Outlook - The brokerage sector is expected to see a valuation recovery throughout the year, with a significant increase in revenue and profit for listed brokerages, up 25% and 83% year-on-year respectively in Q1 2025 [1] - Key drivers of growth include brokerage, margin financing, and proprietary trading, with notable year-on-year increases of 49%, 51%, and 27% in brokerage, proprietary trading, and net interest income respectively [1] - The resilience of investment banking and asset management businesses is better than expected, indicating a positive growth outlook for brokerage and margin financing businesses [1] Group 2: Banking Sector and Fund Reform - The recent implementation of public fund reforms is anticipated to drive valuation in the banking sector, with a focus on aligning fund allocations with performance benchmarks [2] - The banking sector is currently under-allocated in active equity, with a deviation of nearly 10 percentage points from the CSI 300 index, suggesting significant potential for increased allocation [2] - Recent policy measures aimed at economic recovery, along with the expansion of passive funds and accelerated entry of insurance capital, are expected to support the banking sector's market performance [2] Group 3: Metal Industry Investment Opportunities - The metal industry is projected to experience steady profit growth in 2024 and Q1 2025, with gold, nickel, cobalt, tin, rare earths, and copper leading the sector [3] - Current valuations in the metal industry remain relatively low, particularly for aluminum, copper, and nickel, indicating potential for valuation recovery [3] - The industry is also seeing an increase in dividend returns, with some stocks offering dividend yields exceeding 5%, enhancing shareholder return capabilities [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The sentiment impact of current tariff policies has weakened. It is recommended to go long on IH or IF stock index futures related to the economy on dips, and also consider going long on IC or IM futures related to "new quality productivity" opportunistically. For stock index futures trading, it is suggested to buy IF long positions on dips, and no arbitrage opportunities are recommended for now [4]. - The tariff negotiation exceeded expectations, and the short - term market risk preference has increased, so the bond market faces certain adjustment pressure. However, considering the decline in capital interest rates after the implementation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, the short - end bonds still have cost - effectiveness. The long - end bonds may face adjustment pressure due to short - term tariff changes and supply pressure, and opportunities after the correction should be awaited [6]. - Precious metals are expected to show a weak trend in the short term due to the hawkish Fed monetary policy expectations and the release of tariff risks. Gold should wait for further correction before going long, and silver is recommended to be on the sidelines for now [8]. - For most metals, although the Sino - US negotiation has achieved certain results, the current tariff level is still high, and the market sentiment may be limited. The supply and demand fundamentals of each metal vary, and the price trends are also different. Some metals may face short - term upward pressure, while others may have downward risks [10][11][12]. - For black building materials, the reduction of Sino - US trade tariffs may boost market confidence, but the long - term demand is still under pressure. The supply and demand fundamentals of each variety also need to be closely monitored [22]. - In the energy and chemical industry, different products have different supply - demand situations. Some products are expected to have price declines due to increased supply and weak demand, while others may have short - term trading opportunities due to specific events [39][40]. - In the agricultural products sector, the price trends of different products are affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and weather. Some products are expected to be stable or have short - term fluctuations, while others may face downward pressure [50][51]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial 3.1.1 Stock Index - The previous trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.17%, while the ChiNext Index fell 0.12%, and other major indexes showed different trends. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1291.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.9 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - The sentiment impact of tariff policies has weakened. It is recommended to go long on IH or IF stock index futures related to the economy on dips, and also consider going long on IC or IM futures related to "new quality productivity" opportunistically. The unilateral strategy is to buy IF long positions on dips [4]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - On Tuesday, the TL, T, and TS main contracts rose, while the TF main contract fell slightly. The US may pass a large - scale tax - cut bill, and the US CPI data in April was lower than expected [5]. - The tariff negotiation exceeded expectations, and the short - term bond market faces adjustment pressure. However, the short - end bonds still have cost - effectiveness, and the long - end bonds may face adjustment pressure and opportunities after the correction should be awaited [6]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals - Shanghai gold and silver, as well as COMEX gold and silver, showed different degrees of increase. The US CPI data in April was lower than expected, but there are still potential inflation risks [7]. - Precious metals are expected to show a weak trend in the short term. Gold should wait for further correction before going long, and silver is recommended to be on the sidelines for now [8]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals 3.2.1 Copper - The US inflation data was weaker than expected, and the Sino - US tariff adjustment details were announced. LME copper rose 1.29% to $9624/ton, and Shanghai copper closed at 78,650 yuan/ton. The LME inventory decreased, and the domestic warehouse receipts increased [10]. - The Sino - US negotiation results were better than expected, but the current tariff level is still high. The supply of copper ore and recycled copper is tight, and the consumption shows signs of weakening. The short - term copper price is difficult to continue rising [10]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - The Sino - US economic and trade negotiation sentiment was positive, and the aluminum price rose. LME aluminum rose 0.95% to $2493/ton, and Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,155 yuan/ton. The domestic aluminum ingot inventory decreased [11]. - The Sino - US negotiation results were better than expected, and the short - term inventory decline supports the aluminum price. However, the seasonal weak demand may limit the upward space of the aluminum price [11]. 3.2.3 Zinc - Shanghai zinc index fell 0.69% to 22,228 yuan/ton, and LME zinc fell. The zinc concentrate port inventory increased, and the zinc ingot inventory showed a small increase [12]. - The zinc concentrate is in surplus, and the short - term near - end is relatively strong. However, the downstream procurement sustainability is limited, and the zinc price may have a downward risk in the medium term [12]. 3.2.4 Lead - Shanghai lead index fell 0.17% to 16,965 yuan/ton, and LME lead fell. The lead concentrate port inventory increased, and the domestic social inventory increased [13][14]. - The lead concentrate is in surplus, and the short - term lead price shows a strong - side shock. The medium - term Shanghai lead index is expected to fluctuate in a range of 16,300 - 17,800 yuan [14]. 3.2.5 Nickel - Shanghai nickel rose 0.20% to 124,430 yuan/ton, and LME nickel rose 1.25% to $15,745/ton. The cost side is expected to loosen, and the spot demand is weak [15]. - The nickel price should be treated with a bearish view. The Shanghai nickel main contract is expected to run in the range of 120,000 - 130,000 yuan/ton, and the LME nickel 3M contract in the range of $15,000 - 16,300/ton [15]. 3.2.6 Tin - Shanghai tin fell 0.43% to 262,070 yuan/ton. The domestic warehouse receipts decreased, and the LME inventory remained unchanged. The supply side is expected to loosen, and the demand side is affected by tariffs [16]. - If the downstream demand remains weak, the tin price may decline. The domestic main contract is expected to run in the range of 250,000 - 270,000 yuan, and the overseas LME tin in the range of $30,000 - 33,000 [16]. 3.2.7 Carbonate Lithium - The spot index of carbonate lithium fell 0.26%, and the LC2507 contract fell 1.28%. The macro - sentiment improvement did not continuously boost the lithium price, and the cost support decreased, and the inventory was high [17]. - The lithium price rebound faces resistance. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's carbonate lithium 2507 contract is expected to run in the range of 62,500 - 63,800 yuan/ton [17]. 3.2.8 Alumina - The alumina index remained flat at 2840 yuan/ton, and the trading volume increased. The spot prices in some regions rose, and the overseas price remained unchanged. The supply side is disturbed, and the cost support decreases [18]. - It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and the medium - to - long - term supply surplus trend is difficult to change. The domestic main contract AO2509 is expected to run in the range of 2650 - 3000 yuan/ton [18]. 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - The stainless steel main contract rose 0.31% to 12,930 yuan/ton, and the trading volume decreased. The spot prices in some markets rose, and the raw material prices remained stable. The social inventory increased [19]. - The Sino - US trade negotiation boosted market confidence, and the supply - side concerns increased. The demand is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the implementation of the Philippine policy and the domestic demand recovery [19]. 3.3 Black Building Materials 3.3.1 Steel - The rebar main contract fell 0.09% to 3079 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil main contract fell 0.15% to 3215 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipts and trading volumes of both decreased [21]. - The Sino - US trade tariff reduction may boost market confidence, and the short - term plate demand and exports may strengthen, but the long - term demand is still under pressure [22]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - The iron ore main contract (I2509) fell 0.56% to 714.50 yuan/ton, and the trading volume increased. The supply is slightly reduced, the demand may peak and decline, and the inventory is slightly reduced [23]. - The Sino - US negotiation boosted the market, and the short - term iron ore price is expected to fluctuate. It is necessary to pay attention to the macro - situation [23]. 3.3.3 Glass and Soda Ash - The glass spot price remained unchanged, and the inventory increased. The soda ash spot price was stable, and the supply decreased slightly, and the inventory was high [24][25]. - The glass futures price is expected to be weak, and the soda ash futures price is also expected to be weak in the medium term [25]. 3.3.4 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - The manganese silicon main contract fell 0.95% to 5810 yuan/ton, and the ferrosilicon main contract fell 0.43% to 5612 yuan/ton. The demand for both is expected to weaken, and the supply of ferrosilicon increased [26][27][29]. - The manganese silicon price is expected to stop falling and fluctuate, and the ferrosilicon price may continue to face pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [26][27][29]. 3.3.5 Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon main contract fell 1.08% to 8230 yuan/ton. The supply is in surplus, and the demand is insufficient. The downstream production is restricted [30]. - The industrial silicon price may continue to decline. It is recommended to wait and see and not to buy on dips prematurely [30][31]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals 3.4.1 Rubber - The rubber price rebounded due to the Sino - US negotiation. The butadiene rubber rose sharply. Thailand plans to postpone rubber tapping [33]. - The tire factory's operating rate decreased, and the rubber inventory increased. It is recommended to operate short - term and pay attention to the spread trading opportunity [33][34][35]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil - WTI and Brent crude oil futures rose, while INE crude oil futures fell. The gasoline, diesel, and fuel oil inventories in the port decreased [36][37][38]. - The current oil price is in the high - valuation range, and the OPEC may increase production in June. It is recommended to short on rallies [38]. 3.4.3 Methanol - The methanol 09 contract rose 21 yuan/ton to 2291 yuan/ton. The supply pressure increased, and the demand weakened. The price is expected to decline [39]. - It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the spread trading opportunities [39]. 3.4.4 Urea - The urea 09 contract remained unchanged at 1897 yuan/ton. The export news impact is marginalized, and the supply is increasing, and the demand is in the peak season [40]. - It is recommended to take partial profits on long positions and wait and see for non - holders [40]. 3.4.5 Styrene - The styrene 06 contract rose 427 yuan/ton to 7550 yuan/ton. The cost increased, and the supply was low, and the downstream demand weakened [41]. - The styrene price rebound should be treated with caution [41]. 3.4.6 PVC - The PVC09 contract rose 1 yuan to 4837 yuan/ton. The cost was stable, the supply was high, and the demand was weak [42]. - The short - term PVC price may rebound, but the medium - term is expected to be weak and fluctuate [42]. 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - The EG09 contract rose 47 yuan to 4349 yuan/ton. The industry is in the de - stocking stage, and the terminal demand has improvement expectations [43]. - It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to the spread trading opportunities [43]. 3.4.8 PTA - The PTA09 contract rose 40 yuan to 4750 yuan/ton. The supply was in the maintenance season, and the terminal demand had improvement expectations [44]. - The PTA processing fee has support, but the absolute price may face risks [44]. 3.4.9 p - Xylene - The PX09 contract rose 54 yuan to 6708 yuan/ton. The supply was in the maintenance season, and the terminal demand had improvement expectations [45][46]. - The PX is expected to de - stock in the second quarter, but the short - term valuation is high and risks should be noted [46]. 3.4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - The PE price rose, but the upward space of valuation is limited. The supply will increase in the second quarter, and the demand is in the off - season [47]. - The short - term PE price may be affected by supply, and the medium - term is expected to fluctuate [47]. 3.4.11 Polypropylene (PP) - The PP price rose slightly, and the supply had no new capacity in May, and the demand was in the off - season [48]. - The PP price is expected to fluctuate weakly in May, and it is recommended to track the LL - PP spread [48]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Live Pigs - The domestic pig price was mainly stable, and the supply and demand were in a game. The short - term price fluctuation is limited, and the pressure is accumulated [50]. - It is recommended to short on rallies and wait and see in the short term [50]. 3.5.2 Eggs - The egg price mostly rose, and the supply pressure was large. The short - term price may be stable with some fluctuations [51]. - It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [51]. 3.5.3 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The overnight US soybean rose, and the domestic soybean meal spot price fell slightly. The supply of US and domestic soybeans is expected to be large in the short term, and the valuation is low [52][53]. - The US soybean and soybean meal are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the upward breakthrough needs additional stimulation [53]. 3.5.4 Oils and Fats - The Malaysian palm oil inventory increased in April, and the production increased in May, and the export decreased. The US soybean oil may be supported by policies [54]. - The oils and fats may face downward pressure in the medium term, but the short - term may fluctuate or be slightly bullish [55]. 3.5.5 Sugar - The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell slightly, and the international sugar supply is expected to be in surplus in the 2025/26 season [56]. - The domestic sugar price may maintain a high - level shock in the short term, but the downward risk increases in the long term [57]. 3.5.6 Cotton - The Zhengzhou cotton futures price rose slightly, and the USDA report was mixed. The domestic cotton market is in a situation of weak supply and demand [58][59]. - The short - term cotton price may be boosted, and the future focus is on the marginal change of inventory [59].

欧美贸易谈判最新进展——美财长发话了。 周二，美国财政部长贝森特在利雅得举行的沙特-美国投资论坛上，被问及关税谈判进展时表示，欧盟 面临一个"集体行动问题"，这在一定程度上阻碍了贸易谈判的进展。 简单来说，"集体行动问题"指的是，欧盟内部各个国家的利益并不完全一致。贝森特举例称，意大利和 法国的需求不一致，这种分歧让谈判变得更复杂。 贝森特认为，尽管如此，最终美欧之间会达成一个满意的结论，但这个过程注定会比与其他国家的谈判 要慢得多。 特朗普总统长期对欧盟颇有不满，他曾表示，这个联盟就是为了坑美国而成立的，在此背景下，欧盟成 为达成协议的优先对象的可能性很低。 不过，虽然如此，美国和欧盟之间的贸易规模依然庞大。国际货币基金组织数据显示，去年欧美双边贸 易总额接近1万亿美元，且欧盟在这笔交易中占据了明显的优势，欧盟对美国的贸易顺差达到了2500亿 美元。 贝森特为什么这么说？ 有分析指出，贝森特提到"集体行动问题"，似乎是想通过制造欧盟内部分歧来推动谈判进展，但从目前 的情况来看，欧盟内部并没有出现明显裂痕。德国总理梅尔茨与特朗普的电话沟通中就明确表示，欧洲 在贸易问题上不能分裂。 在欧盟内部，尽管整体战略保持 ...

德国智库ZEW：随着德国新政府的组建、关税争端取得一些进展以及通胀率趋于稳定，市场乐观情绪 有所提升。银行、汽车、化工、金属、机械和钢铁行业的前景特别有所改善。 ...

镍库存198516吨，增加762吨。 伦敦金属交易所（LME）：铜库存189650吨，减少1100吨。 铝库存399300吨，减少2225吨。 ...