Core Viewpoint - The public fund's third-quarter report indicates a continuous growth in asset scale and an increase in stock positions for actively managed equity funds, driven by a steady rise in the A-share market and a focus on technology growth sectors [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector has seen significant increases in holdings, while sectors such as large finance and large consumption have experienced reductions in holdings [1] - The concentration of holdings in leading companies has increased during the third quarter [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Several institutions suggest that while individual stock prices have risen significantly, short-term market volatility may increase; however, the long-term trend for the equity market remains upward and certain [1] - There is an expectation for a potential return to dividend value styles in the fourth quarter [1]

Market Overview - The market is experiencing a pullback with trading volume dropping below 2 trillion, led by declines in the ChiNext and Shenzhen indices, while the Shanghai Composite Index is supported by dividend sectors [1] - The ChiNext index has broken below the 30-day moving average, indicating a bearish trend, while the Shanghai Composite Index is currently supported by the 20-day moving average, suggesting a potential range-bound structure in the short term [1] Investment Insights - Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have warned investors of a potential market pullback over the next two years after a strong rally earlier this year [4] - Both firms highlight that Asia is expected to become a focal point in global markets, with continued interest in China from global capital allocators [6] - Infrastructure construction is identified as a key investment theme for the coming years [6] Sector Analysis - There is a significant concentration of institutional funds in the TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector, creating a "historic level of consensus" among investors [7] - The high concentration of holdings in the TMT sector increases vulnerability to negative news, as stock prices have already factored in optimistic expectations [7] - Public funds are currently at high stock positions, and the TMT sector's performance relies on additional capital inflows from other sources, as the capacity for public funds to increase their positions is limited [9]

证券研究报告 | 策略研究 2025 年 11 月 4 日 公募基金 TMT 持仓比例新高后怎么看？ 1. 《招商 A 股流动性研究体系与 流动性指数——A 股市流动性研 究之四》，2016 年 8 月 2. 《A 股机构投资者全景图—股 票市场 SCP 范式研究之一》， 2017 年 10 月 3. 《近期货币政策的边际变化及 其影响如何？——金融市场流动 性与监管动态周报（1029）》 | 招商 A 股流动性指数 | | | --- | --- | | 流动性指标 | 数值/金额（亿元） | | 资金供给 | | | 公募基金发行 | 184.95↑ | | ETF 净申购 | 187.90↑ | | 融资净买入 | 291.55↑ | | 资金需求 | | | 限售解禁 | 556.70↓ | | IPO 融资 | 27.46↑ | | 净减持金额 | 71.69↓ | | 计划减持金额 | 125.05↑ | | 活跃度 | | | A 股周度日均成交额 | 20466.72↑ | | 二级市场可跟踪资金供需净流入 | | 张夏 S1090513080006 zhangxia1@cmschina.co ...

Market Performance - In October 2025, global stock markets experienced a general uptrend, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq rising approximately 2% to 5%[4] - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index saw declines of 3.5% and 8.6%, respectively, indicating a low point for Hong Kong stocks[4] Sector Performance - The Hang Seng industry indices showed a structural divergence, with defensive sectors like Energy (up 6.6%) and Utilities (up 3.6%) performing well, while Information Technology and Healthcare sectors fell significantly by 8.7% and 11.0%[8] - The financial sector also showed slight strength, contributing to the overall mixed performance of the market[8] IPO and Financing Activity - In October 2025, the Hong Kong IPO market saw 12 new listings, raising approximately HKD 27.71 billion, primarily driven by two large tech companies[12] - The first-day performance of new stocks was strong, with a first-day loss rate of only 8.3% and one stock, Jinye International Group, surging 330% on its debut[12] Macroeconomic Indicators - In the U.S., the manufacturing PMI for October was reported at 52.2, and the services PMI at 55.2, both showing improvement from September[14] - The consumer confidence index in the U.S. fell to a five-month low of 53.6, indicating a decline in consumer sentiment[14] Chinese Economic Outlook - China's GDP growth slowed to 4.8% year-on-year in Q3 2025, down from 5.4% in Q1 and 5.2% in Q2, with industrial output growth improving to 6.5%[16] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes technological self-reliance and high-level opening-up, aiming to boost emerging industries and innovation[16] Investment Strategy - Hong Kong stocks are viewed as having relative valuation advantages globally, with a favorable liquidity environment expected to support valuation recovery[18] - Investors are advised to focus on sectors with high growth potential, such as technology, and those likely to benefit from policy support, including new energy and consumer sectors[18]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a stabilization and rebound in the ROE (Return on Equity) of A-shares, indicating a recovery in overall profitability across the market, with significant improvements in growth sectors such as TMT and the ChiNext board [3][4]. Group 1: Overall Market Performance - The ROE of the entire A-share market increased from 6.74% in Q3 2022 to 6.80% in Q3 2023, marking a year-on-year growth of 0.75% and breaking a downward trend [5][6]. - The growth sectors, particularly the ChiNext and technology-focused indices, showed substantial improvements, with the ROE of the ChiNext index rising by 12.30% year-on-year [7][8]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector maintained high growth, with the ROE of technology leaders increasing from 8.04% to 10.26%, a growth of 27.59% [16]. - The consumer sector exhibited mixed results, with the ROE of the consumer index declining from 17.18% to 16.51%, while the household appliances sector showed a slight increase from 12.66% to 12.90% [17][18]. - The pharmaceutical sector showed signs of stabilization, with the overall ROE rising from 8.43% to 8.52%, while the renewable energy sector began to show improvement, with the ROE of the photovoltaic industry increasing from 1.50% to 1.75% [19][20]. Group 3: Profitability Drivers - The rebound in A-share ROE is primarily driven by improvements in net profit margins and stabilization in asset turnover rates, indicating enhanced operational efficiency rather than increased leverage [22][23]. - The sectors with the most significant revenue improvements include TMT, financial services, and midstream manufacturing, while the consumer sector remains under pressure [24].

Market Overview - In October, the Shanghai Composite Index showed a trend of upward fluctuation, with major indices experiencing more declines than gains. The overall large-cap stocks outperformed small-cap stocks, and value stocks outperformed growth stocks. Sectors such as coal, steel, and non-ferrous metals saw significant gains, while media, beauty care, and automotive sectors lagged behind. The average daily trading volume was 2.16 billion, with margin trading remaining at 2.4 trillion [1]. Macroeconomic Analysis - The US-China trade conflict has entered a phase of easing. In October, the manufacturing PMI in China fell to 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a gradual adaptation to external changes. The focus of macroeconomic policy may shift towards areas that are relatively "not hot," with potential for monetary policy easing, including possible rate cuts and the implementation of investment-boosting policies [2][3]. Investment Strategy - The market is expected to experience a rebound, supported by the outcomes of the 20th National Congress and progress in US-China trade negotiations. However, without significant policy catalysts, the market may enter a phase of adjustment post-meeting. The investment outlook remains positive, with expectations for a "spring rally" and opportunities for positioning in the market as economic transformation accelerates and risk-free rates decline [4][5]. Specific Investment Directions - Focus areas for investment include: 1) Technology growth sectors such as internet, TMT, new energy, innovative pharmaceuticals, and defense [5] 2) New materials and cyclical products with improved market conditions, including chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and steel [5] 3) Financial sectors such as brokerage, banking, and insurance [5] 4) Consumer goods towards the end of the year [5]

Group 1 - The market sentiment indicates that approximately 30%-40% of investors are experiencing losses this year, with a recent poll showing 51% reporting losses [1] - The recent volatility in the market has made it challenging to profit without identifying key trends and timing [1] - The white liquor sector has shown a quick recovery despite disappointing quarterly reports, suggesting that the market had already priced in poor performance [1] Group 2 - The white liquor market is currently viewed as having only trading opportunities, lacking a trend-driven medium-term outlook [2] - The performance slowdown of Kweichow Moutai is impacting its ecosystem, with financial attributes weakening and a decline in the collectibles market [2] - Discussions around the consumption of white liquor indicate a shift in consumer behavior, suggesting that the golden era for the sector may have passed [2] Group 3 - The technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT) sector has seen significant price increases, with trading congestion reaching a 20-year high [3] - The TMT sector's rapid growth has raised concerns about sustainability, with a potential for a market correction due to excessive short-term gains [4] - The concentration of major stocks in the U.S. market is at an all-time high, with the top 10 stocks comprising 41.4% of the S&P 500 index [4] Group 4 - The adjustment in the TMT sector could negatively impact the overall market, especially given the high proportion of leveraged positions [5] - The market's ability to manage indices has improved, contributing to long-term investor confidence [6] - The focus is shifting towards ensuring that various sectors contribute to index growth, rather than relying solely on the high-performing technology sector [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates a reversal in the relationship between GDP, revenue, and profit growth, with A-share revenue growth surpassing nominal GDP for the first time since 2023, showing a year-on-year growth rate of 3.8% in Q3 2025 [1][10] - The net profit growth rate for all A-shares (excluding financial and real estate sectors) improved by 0.9 percentage points to 3.8% in Q3 2025, indicating a marginal recovery in profitability [1][19] - The net asset return (TTM) rose to 7.5%, marking two consecutive quarters of improvement, driven primarily by profit margin recovery [1][19] Group 2 - The midstream manufacturing sector showed significant improvement, with revenue and profit growth rates of 2.1% and 18.1% respectively in Q3 2025, reflecting a marginal increase compared to Q2 [2][39] - The TMT sector continued to outperform, with profit share rising to 16.0%, while the downstream consumer sector saw a decline in profit share to 25.1%, the lowest since Q3 2024 [2][39] - The non-bank financial sector recorded nearly 40% profit growth, indicating a strong performance relative to other sectors [2][39] Group 3 - The report highlights that the recovery in upstream profit share often requires a return to price advantages, which was observed in September 2025, suggesting a potential easing of performance pressures in the upstream sectors [3][29] - The energy metals and fiberglass manufacturing sectors achieved simultaneous volume and price increases, indicating effective outcomes from anti-involution policies [3][29] - The report notes that while the technology sector's absolute growth rates are high, the degree of expectation fulfillment is not particularly strong, suggesting potential risks if larger-scale industry catalysts do not emerge [3][29] Group 4 - The report indicates that the overall revenue growth for all A-shares was 1.36% year-on-year as of Q3 2025, with a notable improvement of 1.2 percentage points compared to Q2 [10][14] - Capital expenditure growth for all A-shares (excluding financial and real estate) recorded a decline of 1.91%, indicating limited new capital investment and a focus on updates and renovations [10][15] - The inventory growth rate for all A-shares (excluding financial and real estate) rebounded to 4.5%, reflecting a recovery in demand and improved operational expectations [10][15]

Market Overview - A-shares showed mixed performance in October, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.85%, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index fell by 1.10% and 1.56% respectively [1][3] - The market experienced significant fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index briefly surpassing 4000 points, marking a ten-year high, before undergoing adjustments [1][3] Sector Performance - The cyclical sectors, including coal, steel, and non-ferrous metals, performed strongly with monthly gains of 10.02%, 5.16%, and 5.00% respectively [3] - Conversely, the media, beauty care, and automotive sectors faced notable declines [3] Trading Activity - October saw a robust trading environment with total transaction volume exceeding 36 trillion yuan, and 10 trading days recorded over 2 trillion yuan in turnover [3] - Margin trading showed optimistic sentiment, with the margin balance reaching 24,990.86 billion yuan, an increase of 1,027.90 billion yuan in October [3] Economic Indicators - Manufacturing output in October grew by 5.4% year-on-year, while the service sector production index increased by 6.3%, the highest growth rate this year [9] - Infrastructure investment, manufacturing investment, and retail sales all showed accelerated growth [9] Policy and Market Outlook - The upcoming November is expected to witness a concentration of policy effects and verification of fourth-quarter earnings, with a potential easing of U.S.-China trade tensions [7][11] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes high-quality development and technological self-reliance, which is anticipated to guide investment directions in November [7][11] Investment Strategy - Analysts suggest an overweight position in sectors such as machinery, TMT (Technology, Media, Telecommunications), electric power equipment, and non-ferrous metals for November [13] - The focus on innovation and technology is expected to drive growth in the economy, with high-dividend consumer stocks also being highlighted as worthy of attention [13][15]

Core Conclusions - The bull market is entering its second phase, transitioning from a "technology bull" to a "wealth bull" [1] - After the "super macro month" in October, the market is expected to favor cyclical stocks as a better allocation choice due to high valuations and potential adjustments if EPS does not improve [1][5] - Current market conditions present an optimal window for investing in cyclical stocks, supported by five key reasons [1] Reason 1: Cyclical Stocks as "Friends of Time" - Since Q3, the market has begun to trade based on changes in profitability (△ROE), indicating a return to investment in economic recovery [21] - Cyclical stocks have lagged behind in price compared to improvements in fundamentals, making them more favorable during market adjustments [21][24] Reason 2: Potential Requirements of the "14th Five-Year Plan" - The "14th Five-Year Plan" suggests that by 2035, per capita GDP should reach the level of moderately developed countries, requiring an annual growth rate of 4.1% plus inflation and currency appreciation [2][30] - Achieving this goal necessitates a combination of moderate inflation and currency appreciation to establish a growth baseline for cyclical industries [2][31] Reason 3: Cross-Border Capital Inflow, Repeating 2019-2021 - Recent reports emphasize that cross-border capital inflow will effectively support domestic demand, with signs of cyclical improvement already emerging [3][33] - The return of cross-border capital is expected to drive a revaluation of global commodities and domestic manufacturing, similar to the core asset bull market seen post-pandemic [3][36] Reason 4: New Regulations for Public Funds Guiding "Rebalancing" - The introduction of new regulations for public funds is expected to lead to a rebalancing of holdings between TMT and cyclical stocks [4][39] - As public funds have not significantly increased new issuances, the shift from cyclical to TMT stocks has resulted in a decrease in the pricing power of TMT stocks [4][40] Reason 5: Slowdown in Incremental Capital Inflows, Entering a Competitive Phase - Since September, there has been a noticeable slowdown in the inflow of various types of capital, indicating a shift in market dynamics [5][44] - The market is transitioning into a phase of competition, with cyclical stocks likely to benefit from this change [5][51] Investment Recommendations: Transitioning from "Technology Bull" to "Wealth Bull" - The report suggests continuing to invest in cyclical stocks, particularly in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, new consumption, and high-end manufacturing, as these areas are expected to benefit from the current economic conditions [5][54]