多晶硅：预期与现实的再博弈 报告要点： 多晶硅价格在 7 月初的快速上涨之后，已经历了两个多月的震荡过程，加权合约价格大致在 4.9 万元/吨-5.8 万元/吨区间宽幅波动。在供需和库存状态并未出现显著性转好的情况下，我们认 为政策预期对盘面的影响程度仍大于基本面现实。但是，随着九月结束进入十月，前期市场上 流传的部分产能整合政策节点已过，但产能整合并未确定性落地，同时终端环节顺价阻碍仍存。 在此背景下，预期与现实或将开始阶段性再博弈。 陈张滢 黑色研究员 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 万林新（联系人） 黑色研究员 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 专题报告 2025-10-09 在盘面价格的运行逻辑中，某一段时间内，价格运行侧重于预期或是现实的一端，成为此段时 间内盘面交易的主要逻辑；而对盘面定价权相对偏弱的另一面，并非对价格不构成影响，只是 其定价影响暂时性降低，变为次要矛盾，使价格朝着主要逻辑的反方向波动调整。在一段时间 之后，随着各方面因素的变化，预期与现实对 ...

黑色建材日报 2025-10-09 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 节前螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3072 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 25 元/吨（-0.80%）。当日注册仓单 285846 吨, 环比增加 15608 吨。主力合约持仓量为 187.3832 万手，环比减少 52807 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢 天津汇总价格为 3200 元/吨, 环比减少 20/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3230 元/吨, 环比减少 10 元/吨。 热轧板 卷主力合约收盘价为 3253 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 36 元/吨（-1.09%）。 当日注册仓单 28314 吨, 环比 减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 134.9 ...

周度报告—工业硅/多晶硅 工业硅大厂复产，多晶硅关注平台公司进展 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 工业硅：震荡/多晶硅：震荡 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 8 | 年 | 10 | 月 | 日 | [★Ta工bl业e_硅Summary] 有 色 根据铁合金在线，截至 9 月底，新疆增开 9 台，其中新疆大厂 增开 7 台，四川减少 5 台，云南减少 1 台。南方或将在 10 月 底进入枯水期少量硅厂开始减产，云南开工或下降到 20 余 台，四川开工或下降至 35 台左右。新疆大厂或有继续开炉计 划。SMM 工业硅社会库存环比持平，样本工厂库存环比-1.24 万吨。国庆节前下游备货，但仍按刚需采购为主，适量多备一 周库存。从静态平衡表推测，以新疆大厂东部基地后续开炉 50 台计算，则 9-10 月工业硅或合计累库约 4 万吨，11-12 月枯水 期合计去库约 5 万吨。此累库和去库体量对于工业硅来说都并 不明显。若新疆大厂东部基地开至 60 台，则 11 月工业硅难以 去库、12 月微量去库。 ★多晶硅 ...

刘永行这人，1948年出生在四川新津一个普通农家，那时候日子过得紧巴巴的。他年轻时在公职单位干活，收入刚够温饱，但改革开放一开闸，风向就变 了。 说起中国民营企业里的那些传奇人物，刘永行绝对算得上一个低调却硬气的代表。 别人家企业一红眼就冲IPO圈钱，搞得债台高筑，刘永行偏偏反其道而行之，靠自有资金一步步滚雪球，硬是把东方希望从一个养鸡场玩儿成了全球电解铝 和多晶硅的巨头。 2025年9月刚出的中国民营企业500强榜单上，东方希望集团以2024年1784.1亿元的营收稳坐第39位，这数字听着就让人咋舌。更绝的是，这家公司从1982年 创业到现在，43年下来从来没上市融资，没借过一分钱银行贷款，也没拖欠过员工一分工资。 为什么他能这么玩儿？说白了，就是抓住了实业的核心——稳扎稳打，不被短期风口忽悠走神。 1982年，他和三位兄弟——大哥刘永言、三弟刘永美、四弟刘永好——坐下来合计合计，觉得机会来了。二哥刘永行前阵子在街边摆摊修电器，七天就挣了 300块。 这在当时可是大数目，够一家人吃半年米了。四兄弟咬咬牙，辞了铁饭碗，卖掉手表自行车啥的，凑了1000块启动资金，跑到成都郊区办了个育新良种场， 主攻养鸡和鹌鹑。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the precious metals, copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, industrial silicon, polysilicon, lithium carbonate, and tin markets. It takes into account factors such as market trends, supply and demand dynamics, policy impacts, and geopolitical risks, and offers corresponding trading strategies for each metal [3][4][6][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold reached a new high of over $3,830 per ounce, closing up 1.97%. London silver hit a high of $47.174, closing up 1.9%. The Shanghai gold and silver futures also reached new highs [3]. - **Important Information**: The US government faces a shutdown crisis, which may affect economic data release and the Fed's October monetary policy decision. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in October is 89.8% [3][4]. - **Logic Analysis**: The US government shutdown risk and the expectation of interest rate cuts have increased market risk aversion, leading to a strong upward trend in precious metals. However, due to the approaching National Day holiday in China, it is advisable to reduce positions at high prices [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Take profits at high prices before the holiday and hold light positions. Wait and see for arbitrage. Buy deep out - of - the - money call options or collar call options [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: The night - session of SHFE copper 2511 contract closed up 1.96%. LME copper closed down 2.19%. LME inventory decreased by 500 tons, while COMEX inventory increased by 923 tons [6]. - **Important Information**: The US government may shut down, and different Fed officials have different views on interest rates [6]. - **Logic Analysis**: The Grasberg accident has exacerbated the tightness of copper ore supply. Domestic production has declined, and consumption is weak. The long - term supply - demand structure has changed [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: Adopt a low - buying strategy for long positions. Hold off - market positive arbitrage positions. Wait and see for options [8]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The night - session of alumina 2601 contract fell. Spot prices in various regions declined [10]. - **Important Information**: Eight departments proposed to strengthen resource exploration and rationally layout alumina projects. The national alumina operating capacity increased, and the import price decreased [10][13]. - **Logic Analysis**: Policy impacts on capacity investment are limited. The import window is open, and the fundamentals are in surplus, so the price is expected to be weak [14]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect the price to trend weakly. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [14][16]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The night - session of cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose. Spot prices remained flat [16]. - **Important Information**: Policies affected the recycled aluminum industry. The exchange's aluminum alloy warehouse receipts increased, and downstream enterprises had different holiday arrangements [18]. - **Logic Analysis**: The tight supply of scrap aluminum restricts raw material stocking. Downstream holidays are extended, and the price is expected to fluctuate narrowly [18]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect the futures price to fluctuate with the aluminum price. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [19]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The night - session of SHFE aluminum 2511 contract rose. Spot prices in various regions declined [21]. - **Important Information**: US economic data showed resilience. Chinese aluminum ingot inventory decreased, and photovoltaic installation declined. Downstream enterprises' holiday and procurement situations varied [22][23]. - **Logic Analysis**: US economic data affects interest rate cut expectations. Domestic inventory decreased, but consumption is not strong. The price is expected to fluctuate, and there may be inventory accumulation after the holiday [24]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect the price to fluctuate in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [25]. Zinc - **Market Review**: LME zinc rose, and SHFE zinc rose. Spot premiums increased [26]. - **Important Information**: Domestic zinc inventory decreased, and a mining company obtained a new mining license [27]. - **Logic Analysis**: In October, domestic zinc concentrate production may decrease, and imports are expected to decline. Refined zinc supply may increase, and consumption is not expected to improve significantly. Overseas inventory reduction supports the price, but there are risks of overseas delivery [27][28]. - **Trading Strategies**: Control positions before the holiday. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [30]. Lead - **Market Review**: LME lead fell, and SHFE lead fell slightly. Spot prices declined, and downstream procurement was okay [32]. - **Important Information**: Lead inventory decreased, lead battery enterprise production was mixed, and the holiday may lead to a decline in production [32][33][35]. - **Logic Analysis**: The lead concentrate market is in tight balance, and scrap lead prices are likely to rise. Primary lead production may be affected by losses, while secondary lead production may increase. Consumption in the peak season is not as expected [35]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect the price to fluctuate weakly. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [36]. Nickel - **Market Review**: LME nickel rose, and SHFE nickel rose. LME nickel inventory increased, and premiums of different brands changed [38]. - **Important Information**: Russian nickel entered the US market through Europe. Indonesia's actions affected the nickel price [38][40]. - **Logic Analysis**: Indonesia's actions drove a slight rebound in the nickel price. Downstream consumption is expected to be flat, and the supply is still in surplus. It is recommended to hold an empty position during the holiday [40]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect a wide - range fluctuation. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [41][42]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main contract of stainless steel rose, and index positions decreased. Spot prices were in a certain range [42]. - **Important Information**: A Korean and a Chinese company will jointly build a stainless steel plant in Indonesia [42]. - **Logic Analysis**: Stainless steel followed the nickel price to rebound slightly. Supply pressure remains, but inventory is lower than last year, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to hold an empty position during the holiday [44]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect a wide - range fluctuation. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [44]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures fell, and some spot prices declined [46]. - **Important Information**: A silicon project started construction [46]. - **Logic Analysis**: The inventory structure is "low at both ends and high in the middle." The supply is not very sensitive to price changes. There are rumors of increased production, and the price may回调 in the short term and then can be bought [46]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect a short - term callback and then buy. Sell out - of - the - money put options to take profits. No arbitrage opportunity [47]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures fluctuated narrowly and fell slightly. Spot prices were stable [49]. - **Important Information**: The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission held a symposium [49]. - **Logic Analysis**: Spot prices are stable, but there are pressures on contract delivery and inventory accumulation. The price may回调 in the short term, and it is recommended to exit long positions and then re - enter after the holiday [49]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect a short - term callback, exit long positions and re - enter after the holiday. Conduct reverse arbitrage between 2511 and 2512 contracts. Sell out - of - the - money put options to take profits [50]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract of lithium carbonate rose, and positions and warehouse receipts increased. Spot prices declined [52][53]. - **Important Information**: A lithium mining company modified a supply agreement, Tesla entered the Indian market, and a lithium project was put into production [53]. - **Logic Analysis**: October demand is strong, supply growth is narrowing, and inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to fluctuate during the holiday, and the situation may change after the holiday. It is recommended to hold an empty position [52][53][54]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect a wide - range fluctuation. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell out - of - the - money put options [55]. Tin - **Market Review**: SHFE tin rose, and spot prices declined. Consumption was weak [56]. - **Important Information**: The US government shutdown risk, Fed officials' views, and Indonesia's closure of illegal mining points affected the market [56][57]. - **Logic Analysis**: The US situation and Indonesia's actions affected the price. The tin concentrate supply is still tight, demand is weak, and inventory decreased. Attention should be paid to Myanmar's resumption of production and consumption recovery [57][59]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect a short - term strong - side fluctuation, be cautious about Indonesia's event. Wait and see for options [59].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-30 节前避险情绪提升，工业硅盘面减仓下跌 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-09-29，工业硅期货价格减仓下跌，主力合约2511开于8850元/吨，最后收于8610元/吨，较前一日结算变化（-390） 元/吨，变化（-4.33）%。截止收盘，2511主力合约持仓206977手，2025-09-29仓单总数为50202手，较前一日变化 69手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格小幅回落。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9400-9500（-50）元/吨；421#硅在9600-9800 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8800-9100（-50）元/吨，99硅价格在8800-9100（-50）元/吨。天津、西北、黄埔港、 新疆、上海地区个别硅价也下调。昆明、四川地区硅价持稳，97硅价格持稳。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价10900-11200（0）元/吨。SMM报道，上周国内单体企业部分DMC报价较 上周也呈现不同幅度的小幅上调，调价范围集中在100-200元/吨。本周价格企稳，从价格驱动因素来看，主要源于 成本、供需和预期三重维度的协同支撑。 策略 期货盘面回落，不 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★ (Long - term holding) [1] - Silver: ★★ (Holding positions over the holiday) [1] - Copper: ★★ (Long - term holding) [1] - Zinc: ★ (Rebound) [1] - Lead: ★ (Weak) [1] - Tin: ★★ (Strong) [1] - Aluminum: ★ (Rebound under pressure) [1] - Nickel: ★ (Rebound under pressure) [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★ (Rebound) [1] - Polysilicon: ★ (Cautiously bullish) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★ (Wide - range oscillation) [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The risks such as the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the US government shutdown, along with the dovish statements of Fed officials, support the long - term investment value of gold and silver. The long - term bullish logic for gold and silver remains unchanged, but short - term risks need to be noted [1][3][4]. - The copper market is affected by factors such as supply contraction expectations and strategic resource attributes. It is recommended to take different strategies for short - term and long - term investments [1][6][7]. - The zinc market shows a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand in the long - term. It is advisable to be cautious during the holiday and maintain the view of shorting on rebounds [1][10][11]. - The lead market is currently in a short - term weak trend due to factors such as the resumption of production of lead enterprises and weak downstream demand [1]. - The tin market has a strong upward trend due to supply disruptions and supported terminal consumption [1]. - The aluminum market faces challenges such as reduced overseas bauxite arrivals and unsmooth destocking, resulting in a rebound under pressure [1][14]. - The nickel market has a situation of over - supply in refined nickel and uncertain downstream consumption of stainless steel, so it is recommended to wait and see [1][18][19]. - The industrial silicon market has a situation of reduced supply and increased downstream stocking, with short - term cost support and high inventory coexisting [1]. - The polysilicon market has production uncertainties in October, but strong policy expectations support the price [1]. - The lithium carbonate market has increasing production and continuous destocking. It is expected to fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to the support of the 60 - day moving average [1][22][23]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Conditions**: Gold and silver have reached new highs, supported by risk events such as the US government shutdown and the Russia - Ukraine conflict [2][3]. - **Logic**: In the long - term, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the reconstruction of the geopolitical pattern. Silver follows the trend of gold and is also supported by other metal sentiments and strong demand [3][1]. - **Strategy**: Long - term multi - orders can be held over the holiday, and short - term multi - orders should be held lightly. Pay attention to short - term sentiment fluctuations if the US fiscal bill is resolved [4]. Copper - **Market Conditions**: Shanghai copper has reached a new high this year, with an increase in the closing price of the main contract and changes in various indicators such as inventory and price differentials [5][6]. - **Logic**: The supply of copper concentrates is tight, and the supply contraction expectation of the copper smelting industry is increasing. High copper prices suppress demand, and the domestic social inventory has increased [6][7]. - **Strategy**: Short - term speculative multi - orders are recommended to take profit and prepare for empty or light positions during the holiday. Long - term strategic multi - orders can be held, and industrial selling hedging should be actively arranged [7]. Zinc - **Market Conditions**: Shanghai zinc has stopped falling and rebounded, with changes in price, trading volume, inventory, and other indicators [9][10]. - **Logic**: The supply of zinc concentrates is relatively loose in 2025. Domestic zinc ingot social inventory has decreased, and the risk of soft squeezing in LME zinc continues. However, in the long - term, supply will increase and demand will decrease [10][11]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to be empty or hold light positions during the holiday. In the long - term, maintain the view of shorting on rebounds [11]. Aluminum - **Market Conditions**: Aluminum prices have rebounded under pressure, and alumina has shown a relatively weak trend [13]. - **Logic**: Overseas bauxite arrivals are expected to decrease, domestic aluminum ingot destocking is not smooth, and downstream processing industry start - up rates have slightly increased [14]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on dips in the short - term, paying attention to the changes in the start - up rate of downstream processing enterprises [15]. Nickel - **Market Conditions**: Nickel prices have rebounded, and stainless steel has slightly recovered [17]. - **Logic**: The impact of the political situation in Indonesia on nickel ore supply is limited. The supply of refined nickel is in excess, and the downstream consumption of stainless steel is uncertain [18]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to the improvement of downstream consumption [19]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Conditions**: The main contract LC2511 opened low and went high, with the late - session gains narrowing [21]. - **Logic**: Supply has not significantly contracted, demand has released positive signals, and the total inventory has been decreasing for 7 consecutive weeks [22]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the support of the 60 - day moving average in the range of [73500 - 75000] [23].

2025年09月30日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：冶炼累库与矿端预期博弈，镍价低位震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：短线供需与成本博弈，钢价震荡运行 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：关注矿证变化，节前建议轻仓操作 | 4 | | 工业硅：供需转弱 | 6 | | 多晶硅：关注政策预期 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 9 月 30 日 镍：冶炼累库与矿端预期博弈，镍价低位震荡 资料来源：国泰君安期货、同花顺、Mysteel、SMM 【宏观及行业新闻】 不锈钢：短线供需与成本博弈，钢价震荡运行 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 121,100 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [4] Core Views - The recent increase in silicon material prices has been noted, with prices surpassing 50,000 yuan/ton, and N-type re-investment material averaging 53,200 yuan/ton, while N-type granular silicon averages 50,500 yuan/ton [4] - The company's performance has been under pressure due to a significant decline in silicon material prices, resulting in a revenue drop of 67.9% year-on-year to 1.47 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a net loss of 1.147 billion yuan [1][2] - The company has proactively reduced production to control losses, with a production volume of 50,821 tons in the first half of 2025, a decrease of approximately 60% year-on-year, effectively alleviating market supply pressure [1][2] Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company's cash cost per kilogram decreased to 37.66 yuan, a 6.6% year-on-year decline, despite an increase in unit costs due to fixed costs from idle production lines [2] - The company's asset-liability ratio is low at 8.04%, with no interest-bearing debt, providing a solid financial foundation to navigate industry cycles [2] - Forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are -1.417 billion yuan, 1.259 billion yuan, and 2.324 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of -0.66 yuan, 0.59 yuan, and 1.08 yuan [2][8]

博士后工作站 | 宏观研究 | 大宗商品 市场情绪降温，盘面震荡回落 工业硅/多晶硅 20250929 周贵升 从业资格证：F3036194 投资咨询证：Z0015986 工业硅 价格：现货方面，本周工业硅现货价格坚挺运行。截至2025年9月26日，新疆工业硅553#通氧价格为9000元/吨，环比 上周上涨200元/吨。期货方面，本周主力合约震荡回落，截至9月26日主力合约收8960元/吨。 供应：新疆地区开工持稳，下周有少量复产，预计在10月初产量有所回升；西北地区开工率基本稳定；云南地区开工 率整体稳定，10月云南进入平水期，电价相较前期有所提升，关注国庆节后开工率变化情况；四川地区开工基本持平， 10月底结束丰水期，预计减产在10月下旬。整体而言，本周工业硅产量基本持稳。 需求：多晶硅开工率小幅增加，近期硅料企业硅粉订单需求集中释放，市场成交较好，10月硅料企业减产不及预期， 叠加部分产能爬坡，预计产量仍将维持高位，对工业硅需求支撑较强；有机硅周度开工小幅波动，对工业硅需求维持 稳定；铝合金企业开工率基本稳定，节前备货采购有所增加。出口方面，8月工业硅出口7.66万吨，环比增加3.51%， 同比增加18 ...