Group 1 - Vietnam's GDP growth accelerated in Q2 2023, driven by strong exports, with a year-on-year increase of 7.96%, up from 6.93% in Q1 [1] - The government has set a target of at least 8% for annual GDP growth, which is slightly below the current trajectory [1] - Exports in the previous quarter saw a significant increase of 18.0%, reaching $116.93 billion, while imports grew by 18.8% to $112.52 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of $4.41 billion [1] Group 2 - Industrial production in Vietnam grew by 10.3% during the same period, indicating robust economic activity [1] - Consumer prices rose by 3.57% in June, reflecting inflationary pressures in the economy [1]

Economic Outlook - Thailand's economic growth forecast for 2025 has been revised down to a range of 1.5% to 2% due to political instability and uncertainty affecting domestic economic drivers, particularly exports and government budget spending [1] - The World Bank has lowered its GDP growth forecast for Thailand in 2025 by 1.1%, now predicting a growth rate of only 1.8% due to global economic uncertainties leading to domestic economic weakness [1] - The Thai Commercial Bank's Economic Information Center has also reduced its growth forecast for 2026 to 1.4%, attributing the decline to trade tensions, changes in US policy, domestic economic vulnerabilities, and limited fiscal space [1] Trade and Exports - Despite a 14.9% increase in exports in the first five months of the year, this growth is primarily attributed to a surge in imports before the expiration of a 90-day tariff suspension by the US [2] - If the US imposes a 10% tariff, Thailand's economic growth rate may stabilize around 2%, but an increase to 18% could reduce the growth rate to approximately 1.5% [2] - The Thai Chamber of Commerce predicts that exports may shrink by over 10% in the second half of the year, potentially leading to near-zero growth for the entire year of 2025, which would directly impact manufacturing and employment [2] Political Stability and Investment - The ongoing political uncertainty, particularly with the suspension of Prime Minister Petongtarn, raises concerns about the stability of the current ruling coalition and the potential for government collapse before the next budget is passed [1] - Foreign investors have been net sellers of Thai stocks for nine consecutive months, with a total sell-off of $3.9 billion, reflecting concerns over the political outlook [2] - The performance of the Thai economy in the second half of the year will depend on several variables, including US Federal Reserve monetary policy, a rebound in tourism, and the speed of domestic budget spending [3]

Core Viewpoint - The trade negotiations between the United States and Japan have encountered significant challenges, particularly regarding automobile tariffs, with President Trump threatening to impose a 25% tariff on Japanese cars if no agreement is reached [2][6][12]. Group 1: Trade Negotiation Status - The seventh round of ministerial talks between the U.S. and Japan has not yielded any breakthroughs, with Japan's Economic Revitalization Minister unable to meet with U.S. Treasury Secretary [2][10]. - Japan has been actively seeking a resolution to the trade impasse, but the negotiations appear to be stalled, with no significant progress reported [10][11]. Group 2: Economic Impact - Japan's economy has been adversely affected by the U.S. tariff policies, with May's industrial output growth at 0.5%, significantly below the market expectation of 3.5% [3][11]. - Manufacturers in Japan anticipate a further decline in industrial output, projecting a 0.3% increase for June and a 0.7% decrease for July [3][11]. Group 3: Tariff Threats - President Trump has reiterated his stance on maintaining high tariffs on Japanese automobiles, stating that Japan must make concessions to address the trade imbalance [5][8]. - The U.S. government plans to notify countries, including Japan, that trade penalties will take effect unless agreements are reached by the upcoming deadline [3][15]. Group 4: Future Negotiation Outlook - The deadline for negotiations is set for July 9, with Trump indicating a lack of necessity to extend the tariff suspension period, which could lead to immediate implementation of tariffs [15][16]. - Trump has expressed skepticism about the feasibility of reaching agreements with all countries, suggesting a more aggressive approach to trade negotiations [17][18].