投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 [Table_Report] 分析师 贾利军 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com.cn 李卓雅 从业资格证号：F031445 ...

智通财经APP获悉，华创证券发布研报称，25Q2全A/全A非金融业绩温和回落，整体维持正增。宽基指 数来看，成长盈利增速回落，价值企稳，成长盈利增速仍领先价值。大小盘盈利增速分化小幅扩大，大 盘领先小盘。此外，25Q2过半行业盈利正增长，电子、电新、有色盈利贡献最大。当下，基于二季度 以及下半年GDP的稳定增速以及年内通胀的积极变化，判断24Q4即有望成为上市公司业绩拐点，并已 从今年开启盈利的上行周期，小幅上修对全年业绩增速的预测。 华创证券主要观点如下： 2025Q2全A/全A非金融归母净利润单季同比1.3%/-2.1%，较25Q13.7%/4.5%小幅回落 宽基指数来看，成长盈利增速回落，价值企稳，成长盈利增速仍领先价值。创业板指25Q2归母净利润 累计同比13.4%，较25Q119.9%回落；25Q2上证50归母净利润累计同比0.5%，较25Q1-0.2%企稳回升， 创业板指-上证50盈利增速差由20.1pct收窄至13pct，成长风格盈利增速优势仍在。 大小盘盈利增速分化小幅扩大，大盘领先小盘。沪深30025Q2归母净利润累计同比2.5%，较25Q13.3% 小幅回落；国证200025Q2归母净利润 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas: The US macro - fundamentals are stable, but the political pressure on the Fed has pushed up market expectations of interest rate cuts. Although there are positive feedbacks on investment and consumption, there are still tail risks. Domestically, the market's expectation of corporate profit margins has improved, and recent real - estate policies in first - tier cities may boost transaction volume [7]. - In the short term, market volatility in China may increase. After important events, the pricing weight of fundamentals on assets, especially short - duration commodity assets, may rise. Overseas, liquidity will expand in the next 1 - 2 quarters, entering a "loose expectation + weak dollar" repair channel [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The US macro - fundamentals are stable. The political pressure on the Fed has reached a new high, pushing up market interest - rate cut expectations. However, service inflation stickiness, tariff shocks, and concerns about the Fed's independence remain tail risks [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: The market's expectation of corporate profit margins has improved. "Anti - involution" has promoted the improvement of mid - stream profits in July. In the real - estate market, first - tier cities have introduced demand - side policies, which may increase transaction volume but the sustainability needs to be observed [7]. - **Asset Views**: In China, short - term market volatility may increase at the beginning of September. After important events, the pricing weight of fundamentals on assets may rise. Overseas, liquidity will expand in the next 1 - 2 quarters, supporting total demand recovery [7]. 2. Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in shock, index options will fluctuate, and treasury bond futures will also be in a shock state, still depending on the performance of the stock market [8]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices are expected to rise in shock as the US interest - rate cut cycle may restart in September, but market risks need attention [8]. - **Shipping**: The freight rate of the European container shipping line may fluctuate as the peak season fades in the third quarter [8]. - **Black Building Materials**: Most varieties in this sector, such as steel, iron ore, coke, etc., are expected to be in a shock state due to factors like inventory changes, policy influences, and supply - demand relationships [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Although the weak dollar supports non - ferrous metals, the weak demand also needs attention. Most varieties will be in a shock state, with zinc prices expected to fall in shock [8]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil prices are expected to fall in shock, while most other chemical products will be in a shock state due to factors such as supply - demand relationships, new - capacity pressures, and cost changes [10]. - **Agriculture**: Most agricultural products, including grains, oils, and fibers, are expected to be in a shock state, waiting for further information such as field inspection results [10].

盘面上看，半导体板块大幅下挫，军工、医药、有色、酿酒、券商等板块均走低，CPO概念、液冷 服务器概念等回调；银行、电力、汽车板块逆市上扬，工业母机、机器人概念等活跃。 编辑：何颖曦 中国经济周刊-经济网讯 A股三大指数今日全天震荡调整。截至今日收盘，上证综指报3858.13点， 跌幅0.45%，成交额12227.78亿元；深证成指报12553.84点，跌幅2.14%，成交额16522.14亿元；创业板 指报2872.22点，跌幅2.85%，成交额7973.41亿元。 ...

主题推荐： 1 、 AI 应用。 政策引领加速产业规模化发展，看好金融 / 办公 / 游戏 / 教育等领域应用落地与智能终端产品普及。 2 、具身智能。 机器人产 业从技术探索迈向规模商用，看好受益技术升级与规模化的关键零部件与轻量化材料。 3 、新兴消费。 政策强调创新消费投资场景释放内需潜力，看好业绩 兑现度高的 IP 潮玩 / 宠物等细分赛道。 4 、高端装备。 财政发力支持设备更新带动万亿投资，新型装备展示新域新质战力，看好军工 / 半导体 / 能源电力 等领域整备升级。 报告导读： 中国转型进展加快、无风险收益下沉、资本市场改革推动下中国股市不会止 步，还会走出新高。宽松预期升温与经济能见度提高，行情扩散中盘崛起；看好港股反 弹。 大势研判：中国行情不会止步于此，未来股指还会有新高。 2025 年以来，我们看多中国的逻辑是一贯的：第一，中国转型进展加快，经济社会发展的不确定 性下降。第二，无风险利率下沉，长期资本和居民入市进入历史性转折与时代趋势。第三，资本市场改革，社会各界对中国资产的价值观念和风险认识系统性 改观，打开了资本市场发展的空间。市场也不必过虑阶段性调整： 1 ）两融规模 / 流通市值 ...

中国行情有望出现扩散，增加中盘股或低位蓝筹股的配置比例。市场风格的冲突并不在价值和成长，中 国逻辑的改善是更广泛的：1)中国传统行业在累年下行后进入去库存和磨底阶段，政策介入后出险概率 降低，"L型"企稳的能见度提高。2)在经济治理思路上，反内卷的提出和"十五五"规划更注重内需(创新 与消费)也正在令1)的远期更为显性化。3)无风险收益下沉后，低风险偏好投资者渐进入市，有助于优质 蓝筹股的估值修复。同时，监管机构也于近期座谈释放倡导长期投资、价值投资和理性投资理念的态 度。综合来看，随着市场参与者和投资逻辑的多元化，行情不会仅仅局限于小市值，未来有望出现扩 散，滞涨且盈利质量更好的中盘股或低位蓝筹股或成为下一阶段股市上升的重要力量。 行业比较：新兴科技是主线，周期金融是黑马；港股将有望反弹。下一阶段，我们认为中国股市的行情 将扩散，继续看好：1)长期稳定和垄断假设依然重要，金融与部分高分红。推荐：券商/保险/银行/运营 商等，低估值中字头或反弹。2)看好新技术趋势与消费需求，关注AI应用侧机会，推荐：港股互联网/ 传媒/创新药/电子及半导体/军工，以及部分零售/化妆品/社服等国潮品牌等。3)反内卷有望逐步改善 ...

宏观流动性： 上周美元指数有所回升，中美利差"倒挂"程度有所收敛。10Y 美债名义/实际利率均回落，通胀预期变化不大。离岸 美元流动性有所收紧，国内银行间资金面整体平衡宽松，期限利差(10Y-1Y)走阔。 交易热度、波动与流动性： 市场交易热度继续回升，除中证 1000 外，其余主要指数波动率均明显回升。行业上，TMT、消费者服务、轻工、机械、 汽车等板块交易热度在 80%分位数以上，大多数行业波动率均在 80%分位数以下。 机构调研： 电子、医药、通信、汽车、计算机等板块调研热度居前，医药、通信、食品饮料、农林牧渔、家电、化工等板块的调 研热度环比仍在上升。 分析师预测： 全 A 的 25/26 年净利润预测同时被下调。行业上，非银、有色、传媒、通信等板块 25/26 年净利润预测均被上调。指 数上，上证 50 的 25/26 年净利润预测均被上调,沪深 300 的 25/26 年净利润预测均被下调，中证 500、创业板指的 25/26 年净利润预测分别被下调/上调。风格上，大盘/中盘/小盘成长、大盘/小盘价值的 25/26 年的净利润预测均被 下调，中盘价值的 25/26 年的净利润预测分别被下调/上调。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Gold, Copper, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Logs [1] - **Bearish**: PVC Pipe, Galvanized Pipe, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Live Pigs [1] - **Sideways**: Aluminium, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Cotton Yarn, Paper Pulp, Asphalt, Styrene, PTA, Naphtha, Short Fiber, Urea, PF, PVC, PG, Container Shipping European Line [1] Report's Core View - After the continuous strong and volume - increasing rise of stock index futures, capital flow amplifies market volatility. With the approaching of key macro - event nodes in September, the index is expected to fluctuate more, and it is recommended to moderately reduce positions and adjust the layout to be mainly long [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest - rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1]. - Multiple factors drive the prices of different commodities. For example, the expectation of Fed rate cuts and supply - demand situations affect metal prices; seasonal factors, production, and consumption situations influence agricultural product prices; and supply - demand, policy, and geopolitical factors impact energy and chemical product prices [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Stock index futures may experience increased volatility in September, and it is advisable to reduce positions and focus on long positions [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy favor bond futures, but short - term interest - rate risk warning restricts the upside [1]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold is boosted by safe - haven demand and rate - cut expectations [1]. - **Base Metals**: - Copper is expected to be strong due to Fed rate - cut expectations and tight supply [1]. - Aluminium prices are volatile under domestic consumption off - season and Fed rate - cut expectations [1]. - Alumina has weak fundamentals, but there are opportunities to go long in the far - month contracts [1]. - Zinc prices have limited downside, and short - selling should be cautious [1]. - Nickel and stainless - steel prices are affected by macro - sentiment, Fed rate - cut expectations, and supply - demand in the short term [1]. - Tin prices are trending well in the short term due to seasonal maintenance and improved macro - sentiment [1]. - **Ferrous Metals**: - Rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore have neutral valuations, unclear industrial drivers, and warm macro - drivers [1]. - PVC pipe and galvanized pipe are bearish due to long - term anti - involution, weak short - term fundamentals, and high inventory [1]. - Glass and soda ash are under pressure due to supply surplus [1]. - Coking coal and coke have weakening fundamentals and are expected to be weak [1]. Agricultural Products - Soybean oil is re - priced due to factors such as reduced soybean arrivals, consumption season, and trade flow [1]. - Rapeseed oil prices are supported by reduced production and supply - reduction expectations [1]. - Cotton has a near - month squeeze logic, and the 01 contract has limited upside [1]. - Sugar is running strongly but with limited height [1]. - Corn is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term, and new - grain listing should be monitored [1]. - MO1 has limited downside due to import - cost support [1]. - Paper pulp's 11 - 1 reverse spread can be considered [1]. - Logs are expected to oscillate between 790 - 810 yuan/m³ [1]. - Live pigs are bearish due to increased supply and reduced cost [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil and fuel oil are affected by factors such as India's procurement change, OPEC+ production increase, and tariff issues [1]. - Asphalt's short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent and follows crude oil [1]. - Styrene is affected by rainfall, cost, and inventory factors [1]. - PTA's production has recovered, and profits have been repaired [1]. - Naphtha and related products are affected by industry reform and supply - demand changes [1]. - Short fiber has increased factory maintenance and growing warehouse receipts [1]. - Urea has limited upside and cost - end support [1]. - PF and PVC are expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - PG is affected by multiple factors such as capacity reduction, trade, and supply - demand [1]. - Container shipping European Line's freight rate is expected to decline [1].

理性投资，风险自担 宏观：短期来看，9月国内外重要宏观变量再度来袭，海外关注美联储议息会议释放的指引，是否一次性降息还是进入 降息周期令市场瞩目，此外，俄乌问题的进展将对市场风险偏好带来较大影响，国内阅兵结束后将进入新的宏观预期阶 段，关注经济弱现实背景下政策层面释放的十五五规划和四季度经济政策指引，总体来看短期宏观对市场的扰动会再度 加大，但中长期的政策指引仍然偏向利多。 中观：地产销售新房和二手房都回到低位，总体淡季更淡，刚需支撑下限，关注金九银十的表现，服务业结构分化且高 位有韧性，反内卷政策背景下企业盈利端向好，消费国补重启，社会福利政策刺激生育，制造业出口在关税政策扰动落 地后再平衡，国内经济总体维持弱现实阶段，关注反内卷和促内需政策提振下的弱复苏机会。 资金：国内流动性总体宽松，海外流动性在美联储9月降息预期下趋于宽松，金融条件延续改善，国内股市在赚钱效应下 获得杠杆资金和居民存款搬家资金,但解禁压力边际增大，市场分歧开始出现，上升至高位后进一步推升难度加大。 估值：各指数短期大幅上涨后估值近入历史偏高水平，国内外股债溢价率偏低，配置资金吸引力一般。 策略：综合来看，当前宽基指数市场估值偏高，尤其 ...

行业研究 2025 年 9 月 1 日 伦敦金现价格创历史新高水平 ——金属周期品高频数据周报（2025.8.25-8.31） 要点 流动性：伦敦金现价格创历史新高水平。（1）BCI 中小企业融资环境指数 2025 年 8 月值为 46.37，环比上月+0.61%；（2）M1 和 M2 增速差与上证 指数存在较强的正向相关性：M1 和 M2 增速差在 2025 年 7 月为-3.2 个百分 点，环比+0.5 个百分点；（3）本周伦敦金现价格为 3447 美元/盎司。 基建和地产链条：8 月中旬重点企业粗钢旬度日均产量环比+1.98%。（1） 本周价格变动：螺纹-0.61%、水泥价格指数-0.30%、橡胶+0.68%、焦炭 +0.00%、焦煤+0.00%、铁矿+1.30%；（2）本周全国高炉产能利用率、水 泥、沥青、全钢胎开工率环比分别-0.23pct、-3.18pct、-0.5pct、 -0.92pct；（3）8 月中旬重点企业粗钢旬度日均产量环比+1.98%。 地产竣工链条：钛白粉、平板玻璃毛利润处于低位水平。本周钛白粉、玻璃 的价格环比分别+0.00%、+0.00%，玻璃毛利润为-58 元/吨，钛白粉利润 ...