私募施展"平衡术"： 加仓意愿处于高位 站在四季度的起点，私募加仓意愿处于高位。 ◎胡尧 记者 马嘉悦 9月以来，市场有所调整，但是私募并无明显撤退迹象。私募排排网最新统计数据显示，截至9月底，股 票主观多头策略型私募基金平均仓位为78%，其中，仓位超过五成以及满仓的私募占比环比均有所提 升。在业内人士看来，市场情绪的短期变化以及外部扰动因素，无法改变国内居民财产重新配置、科技 产业发展向好等中长期趋势，接下来A股和港股的结构性行情大概率会持续演绎，但风格或出现一定切 换，科技、创新药等成长方向，以及传统行业比如顺周期、消费等，均值得关注。 高仓位私募占比小幅提升 9月以来，A股和港股波动加剧，但私募不改攻势。 私募排排网数据显示，截至9月底，股票主观多头策略型私募基金的平均仓位为78%，与8月底持平。 从仓位结构分布来看：仓位在五成及以上的私募基金占比为94.1%，环比上升1.3个百分点，其中24.7% 的私募处于满仓及加杠杆状态，环比上升0.4个百分点；仓位在八成以上（不含满仓）的私募占比则为 44.3%，环比上升1.3个百分点。 "9月公司更多是调整结构，而非仓位择时。"沪上一位私募基金经理在接受上证报 ...

Group 1 - The market has shown steady upward movement this year, driven by multiple factors including central bank liquidity and accelerated capital inflow, with expectations for a structural upward trend in the near future [1][2] - Positive market performance in recent months is attributed to robust macroeconomic growth, stable corporate earnings, particularly in the technology sector, and supportive policies aimed at capital market development [2] - Diverse funding sources are contributing to market inflows, including foreign capital returning, domestic institutions increasing positions, and residents investing in the stock market through funds [2] Group 2 - The outlook for the market remains optimistic, with ongoing policy benefits, economic resilience, and valuation advantages suggesting a potential structural upward trend [3] - Key investment areas include technology growth and resource sectors, with a focus on "new productive forces, self-control, and AI industry trends," as well as opportunities in cyclical commodities due to improved liquidity [3] - A balanced investment strategy is recommended, combining high-dividend, reasonably valued core assets with selective exposure to growth sectors, while being cautious of high valuations in certain segments [3]

每周 一 景：湖南衡阳衡山 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 【宏观】黄金多大空间：一个参考的数量模型 我们在《"不同寻常"的黄金牛市——全球货币变局研究二》中指出， 2022 年之后黄金由美元实际利率定价的框架已经不再成立。在全球百年未有之大变局 下，全球经济的分化、各国之间信任度变化带来趋势性的居民和官方配置黄金的需求，成为黄金价格上涨的重要推动力量。 本篇专题我们尝试构建黄金定价的数量模型 ， 基于扩展模型，我们分不同情形对于未来的金价进行了预测。 乐观情形 下 ，黄金价格或有望突破 3800 美元 / 盎司； 中性情形 下 ，黄金价格或达到 3200 美元 / 盎司左右； 悲观情形 下， 黄金价格或回落至 2600-2700 美元 / 盎司的区间。 不过数量化的黄金定价模式只能作为一个参考而已。 毕竟像我们前一篇专题中指出的，本轮黄金的牛市，主要不是经济因素驱动的，而是由非经济因素驱动 的。本轮黄金的牛市是各国之间信任度的下降、以及国际秩序的重构，全球货币体系的大变局带来的长期牛市。 风险提示： 全球央行购金速度不及预期，美联储货币政策超预期收紧，模型测算误差。 【策略】 回调即是增配良机 【海外策略】 以 ...

Group 1 - The market is currently experiencing a "high-cut low" style switch, but this defensive characteristic is not leading to an overall index increase, indicating a continued adjustment phase since early September [1][2] - The overall profitability effect in the A-share market has declined to a medium-low level, suggesting that the adjustment phase is nearing its end, while the "high-cut low" trading strategy is becoming less attractive [1][2] - Discussions about style switching in the fourth quarter are increasing, with a focus on technology leading the market recovery rather than cyclical sectors [1][8] Group 2 - The overseas environment is stabilizing, with recent events in the U.S. banking sector causing temporary risk aversion, but the VIX index has peaked and is now declining [7] - The potential for a significant market rally is anticipated in Q4 2025, driven by factors such as rising overseas AI capital expenditure and advancements in the domestic AI industry [8][9] - The mid-term market outlook remains unchanged, with expectations that technology sector catalysts will significantly outpace those of cyclical sectors until spring 2026 [8][9] Group 3 - The current market structure suggests that the transition from a structural bull market to a comprehensive bull market hinges on the effectiveness of anti-involution policies, particularly in high-market-share sectors like photovoltaics and chemicals [10] - The profitability diffusion indicators show a contraction in various sectors, with notable declines in metals, power equipment, and real estate, while coal and banking sectors continue to expand [14] - The financing sentiment index indicates a cautious approach among investors, reflecting the current market dynamics and potential for future growth [15]

Group 1 - The "high-cut low" style switch is currently unfolding, but there are differences in offense and defense. The market has shown that cyclical and value trends cannot lead the overall index higher, and the market continues its adjustment phase since early September. The key catalyst for cyclical trends has not yet arrived, and the trend of technology growth industries remains concentrated. A-shares will ultimately need to wait for technology to lead for effective breakthroughs [1][3][4] - Discussions about style switching in the fourth quarter have increased significantly. The current "high-cut low" market is defensive in nature, with intensified competition among offensive assets (such as non-ferrous metals and chemicals) within cyclical and value sectors, while defensive assets show absolute returns. The overall profit effect is declining, and technology rebounds show better profit effects [4][5][11] Group 2 - The overseas environment has become more stable. Recent credit risks in U.S. regional banks have created short-term disturbances in risk appetite. However, these risks are still considered isolated events, and the VIX index has peaked and started to decline. A potential turning point in overseas pressures may have passed [8] - The mid-term market judgment remains unchanged: before spring 2026, the catalytic effect of technology industries will significantly exceed that of cyclical industries. Although the long-term cost-effectiveness of technology is currently low, short-term cost-effectiveness issues have been sufficiently digested, allowing for the emergence of a new round of technology trends [8][9] Group 3 - Spring 2026 may represent a structural high point for the A-share market, but it is unlikely to be the peak for the entire year or the current bull market. The conditions for a comprehensive bull market will become increasingly sufficient over time [11] - In the short term, cyclical products (such as non-ferrous metals and chemicals) are not performing well, with a preference for defensive and hedging assets (such as banks and food and beverage). The outlook for 2026 is better than for 2025, with opportunities still available in Q4 2025, particularly in areas like overseas computing power, advanced manufacturing represented by new energy, and national defense and military industries [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the "Ten Key Industries Stabilization Growth Plan" aims to provide a clear roadmap for the industrial economy's stability and transformation, focusing on ten key sectors that account for approximately 70% of the industrial economy [1] Group 1: Policy Framework - The plan emphasizes a dual approach of supply and demand, establishing a systematic policy framework to address structural challenges through the elimination of outdated capacity and optimization of industrial structure [2] - Specific measures are tailored to different industries, such as promoting upgrades in the electronic information manufacturing sector and focusing on new energy and smart grid equipment in the power equipment sector [2] Group 2: Technological Innovation - The plan prioritizes technological innovation and quality improvement, outlining differentiated innovation paths for various industries, including smart manufacturing in machinery and green products in light industry [3] - A complete industrial ecosystem is established across the ten industries, facilitating the incubation and application of new technologies and models, thereby enhancing overall competitiveness [3] Group 3: Systemic Effects and Industry Chain Collaboration - The plan highlights the importance of systemic effects and collaboration within the industry chain, where the interconnected nature of these industries can create a ripple effect, enhancing technological progress and cost reduction across related sectors [4] - The comprehensive implementation of the stabilization growth plan is expected to usher in a new strategic development opportunity for the ten key industries, contributing to both current economic stability and long-term industrial development [4]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the "Ten Key Industries Stabilization Growth Plan" aims to provide a clear roadmap for the industrial economy's stability and transformation, focusing on ten key sectors that account for approximately 70% of the industrial economy [1][3]. Group 1: Policy Framework - The plan emphasizes a dual approach of supply and demand, establishing a systematic policy framework to address structural challenges through the elimination of outdated capacity and optimization of industrial structure [3][4]. - Specific measures are tailored to different industries, such as promoting upgrades in the electronic information manufacturing sector and focusing on new energy and smart grid equipment in the power equipment sector [3][4]. Group 2: Technological Innovation and Quality Improvement - The plan prioritizes technological innovation and quality enhancement, outlining differentiated innovation paths for various industries, such as advancing smart manufacturing in machinery and developing green products in light industry [4][5]. - A complete industrial ecosystem is being constructed across the ten industries, facilitating the incubation and large-scale application of new technologies and models, which will enhance overall competitiveness [4][5]. Group 3: Systemic Effects and Industry Chain Collaboration - The plan highlights the importance of systemic effects and collaboration within the industry chain, where the long chains and high interconnectivity of these industries can create a ripple effect across related sectors [5][6]. - The healthy development of the electronic information manufacturing sector can drive technological advancements and cost reductions in related industries like photovoltaics and lithium batteries [5][6]. Group 4: Long-term Development and High-Quality Growth - The comprehensive implementation of the stabilization growth plan is expected to usher in a new strategic development opportunity for the ten key industries, impacting both current economic stability and the long-term development of China's industrial system [6]. - By balancing stabilization and structural adjustment, the plan aims to promote the coordinated development of traditional industry upgrades and emerging industry cultivation, moving towards high-quality development [6].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is currently experiencing increased volatility, but it remains in a medium to long-term upward trend, with a focus on technology growth as the dominant theme [1][2]. Market Conditions - The A-share market has seen heightened fluctuations since early September, but it is believed to be in a clear medium to long-term upward trend, suggesting investors should not overly focus on short-term volatility [2]. - The driving forces behind the current market rally are identified as top-level design support for the capital market, increased liquidity from ETF inflows, and sustained positive catalysts from technological innovations such as AI [2]. Market Valuation - The current securities ratio (market capitalization to GDP) is approximately 0.86 to 0.87, indicating significant potential for market capitalization growth, as historical data shows that securities ratios above 1 often lead to higher market valuations [2]. Sector Analysis - There is ongoing discussion about whether the market will shift from high-growth technology sectors to lower-performing cyclical sectors; however, the conditions for such a shift are not yet present [3]. - The technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT) sectors are expected to maintain profitability advantages starting in 2025, supported by strong demand for AI computing power and a dual resonance in the semiconductor cycle driven by both consumer and corporate demand [3]. Investment Opportunities - The ChiNext index is currently viewed as the most cost-effective growth index in the market, with a diverse weight distribution across AI hardware, new energy, and pharmaceuticals [4]. - The Hong Kong market has faced challenges but is now entering an environment of incremental capital, with a focus on growth-oriented investments, particularly in AI hardware and applications [5]. Investment Strategy - In the current market, selecting sectors may be more critical than picking individual stocks, with a dual focus on technology growth stocks and sectors benefiting from PPI recovery [6]. - Recommendations include focusing on sectors with strong policy certainty such as non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and real estate for valuation recovery, while also considering consumer sectors with improving profitability [7].

Core Insights - A new round of growth stabilization plans for ten key industries has been launched after two years, focusing on structural optimization and long-term high-quality development [1][3] - The plans emphasize both supply and demand sides while enhancing industry governance to regulate competition [1][3] - The integration of new technologies, particularly artificial intelligence, is highlighted as a key driver for various industries [1][6] Industry Growth Targets - The ten key industries targeted in the new growth stabilization plan account for approximately 70% of the value added in large-scale industrial sectors [3] - Specific growth targets include an average increase of about 7% in the value added of the computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing industries from 2025 to 2026, and a 5% annual growth for the petrochemical and non-ferrous metal industries [3] - The automotive industry aims for annual sales of around 32.3 million vehicles in 2025, with a target of approximately 20% growth in new energy vehicle sales [3] Industry Governance and Competition - The new plans include measures to address irrational "involution" competition and to standardize industry competition order [5] - Different industries have tailored governance approaches; for example, the automotive sector focuses on cost investigations and price monitoring, while the electronic information sector emphasizes capacity governance [5] - Overall, the plans stress the importance of industry self-discipline and creating a favorable business environment to promote orderly development [5] Role of Artificial Intelligence - Artificial intelligence is positioned prominently in the new plans, with initiatives to promote its integration across all stages of industrial processes [6] - The automotive industry will leverage AI in research, design, production, and operations, while the light industry will focus on generative AI for product design and manufacturing [6] - The deep integration of AI into these key industries is expected to drive digitalization, networking, and intelligent transformation, enhancing efficiency and reducing costs [6]

Core Viewpoint - A new round of growth stabilization plans for ten key industries has been initiated, focusing on structural optimization and long-term high-quality development while addressing supply and demand dynamics [2][5]. Group 1: Industry Growth Plans - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has released growth stabilization plans for steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, chemicals, building materials, machinery, automobiles, power equipment, light industry, and electronic information manufacturing [2][5]. - The new plans emphasize quantitative targets for each industry, aiming for a balanced focus on quality and efficiency [4][7]. - By 2025-2026, the average growth rate for the value added of the computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing industries is expected to reach around 7%, while the petrochemical and non-ferrous metal industries aim for an annual growth rate of 5% [6]. Group 2: Industry Governance - The new growth stabilization plans include clear directives for enhancing industry governance and standardizing competitive practices [9][10]. - Specific measures include addressing irrational "involution" competition in sectors like machinery, automobiles, and electronic information manufacturing, with a focus on cost investigation and price monitoring in the automotive sector [11]. - The plans encourage self-regulation within industries to promote high-quality development and create a favorable business environment [11]. Group 3: Role of Artificial Intelligence - Artificial intelligence (AI) is highlighted as a key component in the new plans, with an emphasis on its integration into various industrial processes [12][14]. - The automotive industry is set to leverage AI in research, design, production, and management, while light industry will focus on generative AI for product design and manufacturing [14][15]. - The deep integration of AI into these ten key industries is expected to facilitate the digital, networked, and intelligent transformation of traditional sectors, enhancing efficiency and reducing costs [15][16].