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广发证券:未来五年有哪些新重点:十五五和十四五规划建议稿的比较研读
Xuan Gu Bao· 2025-10-29 00:05
Core Insights - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes a shift towards high-quality development, focusing on effective demand and technological self-reliance, contrasting with the previous plan's broader economic growth goals [1][2][3] Development Environment - The "15th Five-Year Plan" acknowledges complex changes in the development environment, highlighting issues such as unilateralism and insufficient effective demand, indicating a stronger focus on total demand during this period [1][13][14] Development Goals - The plan sets seven specific goals, including significant achievements in high-quality development and a marked increase in technological self-reliance, with a clear target for improving the resident consumption rate [2][16][17] Industrial Development - Key changes in industrial development include a focus on optimizing traditional industries and nurturing emerging and future industries, with specific mention of sectors like quantum technology and hydrogen energy [3][18][19] Technological Innovation - The plan aims for decisive breakthroughs in critical core technologies through a new national system, emphasizing the importance of self-sufficiency in key areas such as integrated circuits and advanced materials [4][19][21] Expanding Domestic Demand - The strategy shifts to a dual approach of using new demand to drive new supply, with a focus on boosting consumption and effective investment, indicating a more proactive stance on domestic market dynamics [5][22][23] Institutional Reforms - The framework for institutional reforms is more focused, aiming to enhance the vitality of various business entities and improve macroeconomic governance, with specific measures for state-owned and private enterprises [6][24][25] Opening Up - The plan emphasizes the need for steady expansion of institutional openness, aligning with international high-standard trade rules and promoting the internationalization of the Renminbi [7][26][27] Rural Revitalization - The rural revitalization strategy remains consistent, with new measures to enhance rural infrastructure and public services, drawing on successful past initiatives [8][27] Regional Development - The plan highlights the importance of regional coordination and the role of key growth areas, promoting a more integrated approach to regional economic development [9][29][30] Green Development - The focus on green development is intensified, with a systematic approach to building a new energy system and achieving carbon peak and neutrality goals [9][31][32] Social Welfare - The plan prioritizes high-quality employment and income growth, with specific measures to enhance social security and address housing as a fundamental issue of public welfare [10][34][35]
先进制造业地位凸显 新兴产业和未来产业蕴藏新机遇
Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-10-28 21:10
● 本报记者 张兴旺 "十五五"规划建议明确,建设现代化产业体系,巩固壮大实体经济根基。现代化产业体系是中国式现代 化的物质技术基础。坚持把发展经济的着力点放在实体经济上,坚持智能化、绿色化、融合化方向,加 快建设制造强国、质量强国、航天强国、交通强国、网络强国,保持制造业合理比重,构建以先进制造 业为骨干的现代化产业体系。 机构认为,"十五五"规划建议提出的"保持制造业合理比重,构建以先进制造业为骨干的现代化产业体 系",让先进制造业地位凸显。此外,优化传统产业,培育壮大新兴产业和未来产业,促进服务业优质 高效发展,构建现代化基础设施体系的重要性将在"十五五"时期乃至更长阶段持续显现。新兴产业和未 来产业蕴藏新机遇,发展前景可期。 浦银国际研报称,高端和先进制造业有望成为经济结构转型升级的驱动力,建议关注半导体产业链、人 工智能、数字经济、创新药与生物科技等领域的投资机会。 优化提升传统产业 "十五五"规划建议提出,优化提升传统产业。推动重点产业提质升级,巩固提升矿业、冶金、化工、轻 工、纺织、机械、船舶、建筑等产业在全球产业分工中的地位和竞争力。提升产业链自主可控水平,强 化产业基础再造和重大技术装备攻关 ...
【广发宏观郭磊】未来五年有哪些新重点:十五五和十四五规划建议稿的比较研读
郭磊宏观茶座· 2025-10-28 15:25
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the key changes and focuses in the "15th Five-Year Plan" (2026-2030) compared to the "14th Five-Year Plan" (2021-2025), highlighting shifts in development goals, industry focus, and policy priorities. Development Environment - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the complexity of the development environment, including unilateralism and hegemonism, while also recognizing favorable long-term trends. It highlights issues such as insufficient effective demand and pressures on employment and income growth, indicating a greater focus on total demand during this period [1][14][16]. Development Goals - The "15th Five-Year Plan" sets seven goals, with a clear emphasis on "significant achievements in high-quality development," which includes maintaining reasonable economic growth, improving total factor productivity, and increasing the resident consumption rate. The plan also introduces a new goal of significantly enhancing self-reliance in technology [2][17][18]. Industry Development - The plan includes a focus on optimizing traditional industries and nurturing emerging and future industries. It highlights the importance of traditional sectors like mining and manufacturing while also emphasizing new industries such as quantum technology and hydrogen energy [3][19][20]. Technological Innovation - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims for decisive breakthroughs in key core technologies through a new national system and extraordinary measures, particularly in areas like integrated circuits and advanced materials. It also proposes increased R&D tax deductions and greater government procurement of innovative products [4][20][21]. Expanding Domestic Demand - The plan shifts from a supply-driven approach to one that emphasizes demand, aiming to stimulate consumption and investment. It includes measures to enhance consumer spending and streamline government investment processes [5][22][23]. Systemic Reform - The "15th Five-Year Plan" focuses on enhancing the vitality of various business entities and improving the market-oriented allocation of resources. It emphasizes the need for stronger protection of property rights and the optimization of asset structures [7][24][25]. Opening Up - The plan advocates for a steady expansion of institutional openness, aiming to align with international high-standard trade rules and enhance the internationalization of the Renminbi, reflecting a proactive approach in the context of global economic changes [8][26]. Rural Revitalization - The "15th Five-Year Plan" continues to prioritize rural revitalization, incorporating lessons from previous initiatives to improve rural infrastructure and public services, thereby promoting agricultural modernization [9][27][28]. Regional Development - The plan emphasizes the role of key regions in driving economic growth and proposes measures to enhance public services based on residency registration, reflecting a focus on urbanization and regional advantages [10][29]. Green Development - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to accelerate the establishment of a new energy system, focusing on increasing the share of renewable energy and implementing dual control over carbon emissions, indicating a commitment to sustainable development [11][30]. Social Welfare - The plan places a strong emphasis on high-quality employment and income distribution, introducing measures to enhance social security and housing supply, reflecting a shift in the perception of housing as a social issue [12][31][32].
晶采观察丨四中全会将这项任务摆在首位 传递哪些信号?
Yang Guang Wang· 2025-10-28 14:27
10月20日至23日,中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议在京召开。全会审议通过《中共中央 关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》(以下简称《建议》),圆满完成各项议程。 相信很多人都关注到了这一点,党的二十届四中全会部署12项战略任务,明确把"建设现代化产业体 系,巩固壮大实体经济根基"摆在第一条。这足以说明实体经济的分量,以及对我国"立身之本"的重 视。 市场方面,大国经济都是内需为主导,市场是当今世界最稀缺的资源。因此,构建强大国内市场不仅是 发展的必然选择,更是推进中国式现代化的关键战略依托,这也体现了我们发展的战略定力。在具体路 径上,《建议》提出坚持扩大内需这个战略基点。一是拓展增量,二是提升效益,三是畅通循环。 在提升效益方面,国家发展改革委方面表示,我国固定资产投资年度规模已达到50万亿元,但惠民生、 补短板、育动能等任务还很重,必须把"钱"特别是政府资金更好地用在发展紧要处,花在群众生活上。 对此,《建议》提出优化政府投资结构,提高民生类政府投资比重,统筹用好各类政府投资,加强政府 投资全过程管理等举措,将更好地发挥政府投资的撬动作用,不断增进投资的综合效益。 推动经济行稳 ...
四中全会将这项任务摆在首位 传递哪些信号?
Yang Guang Wang· 2025-10-28 13:12
产业方面,就是建设现代化产业体系。其中,对于优化提升传统产业,《建议》提出推动重点产业提质 升级,巩固提升化工、机械、造船等行业在全球产业分工中的地位和竞争力,发展先进制造业集群等举 措。作为我国产业体系的"基本盘",传统产业增加值在制造业中占比80%左右。国家发展改革委初步估 计,未来5年会新增10万亿元左右的市场空间。此外,《建议》提出打造新兴支柱产业,加快新能源、 新材料、航空航天、低空经济等战略性新兴产业集群发展,这将催生出数个万亿级甚至更大规模的市 场。同时,我也注意到,全会部署的12项具体任务当中,"加快高水平科技自立自强,引领发展新质生 产力"排在第二位,背后也凸显了其对新兴产业发展的关键支撑作用。 市场方面,大国经济都是内需为主导,市场是当今世界最稀缺的资源。因此,构建强大国内市场不仅是 发展的必然选择,更是推进中国式现代化的关键战略依托,这也体现了我们发展的战略定力。在具体路 径上,《建议》提出坚持扩大内需这个战略基点。一是拓展增量,二是提升效益,三是畅通循环。 在提升效益方面,国家发展改革委方面表示,我国固定资产投资年度规模已达到50万亿元,但惠民生、 补短板、育动能等任务还很重,必须把" ...
广西柳州加速拥抱人工智能
Ren Min Ri Bao Hai Wai Ban· 2025-10-28 07:46
新兴产业因"智"焕彩 走进柳州的广西智拓科技有限公司工厂,一台黄色的工业机器人正精准对接零件,视觉识别技术是 它的"火眼金睛"。类似停车场识别车牌,机器人通过拍照定位零件孔位、圆心等关键信息,自主调整位 置。 人民日报海外版记者 杨俊峰 广西壮族自治区首台工业人形机器人在优必选柳州智慧工厂下线、广西首批功能型低速无人驾驶车 辆道路测试牌照颁发给柳州无人驾驶汽车、飓芯科技国内首条量产氮化镓激光器芯片产线满产达产…… 今年以来,在人工智能(AI)的赋能下,广西柳州市制造业持续焕发新活力。 因工业而生,因制造而兴。作为西南工业重镇,柳州正以人工智能和制造业深度融合为主线,打造 广西人工智能应用场景及产业集群创新基地。柳州如何加速拥抱人工智能?人民日报海外版记者对此进 行了采访。 "以前的机器人没有AI技术时,硬着头皮按指令方向走,撞了也不停。"广西智拓科技有限公司总经 理李江崟说,现在的机器人能识别装载机轮胎等位置偏差——哪怕移了十几毫米甚至半米,也能通过拍 照瞬间定位,精准对接孔位,自动完成螺栓安装等操作。 "AI让找零件不再烦琐,"广西柳工机械股份有限公司全球研发中心数字化研究院AIGC技术应用高 级经理艾建林 ...
华泰证券今日早参-20251028
HTSC· 2025-10-28 02:38
Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - In September, industrial enterprises' profits improved year-on-year to 21.6%, up from 20.4% in August, driven by a low base effect and strong export performance [3] - Revenue growth for industrial enterprises also increased to 3.1% in September from 2.3% in August, indicating a positive trend in cash flow due to anti-involution policies [3] Group 2: Fixed Income Market Analysis - The bond market has shown signs of recovery in October, influenced by trade tensions and a loose liquidity environment, with expectations for a better fourth quarter compared to the third [5] - The market anticipates a controlled impact from new redemption regulations, with a focus on short to medium-term credit bonds as a primary investment strategy [5] Group 3: Oil and Gas Sector - Oil prices have entered a downward trend due to OPEC+ increasing production targets and seasonal demand decline, with Brent crude expected to average $68 in 2025 and $62 in 2026 [9] - Despite short-term volatility from geopolitical tensions, the long-term outlook suggests limited impact from sanctions on oil prices, with high-dividend energy companies presenting investment opportunities [9] Group 4: Real Estate and Construction - The real estate market is experiencing a decline in transaction volumes for both new and second-hand homes, attributed to high base effects and seasonal factors [8] - The construction sector shows mixed signals, with some recovery in cement supply and demand, while asphalt production rates have decreased [8] Group 5: Key Company Performances - Beike-W (2423 HK) is projected to benefit from a gradual market recovery, with a target price of HKD 65.64 based on a 26x PE ratio for 2026 [11] - Zhiou Technology (301376 CH) reported a revenue of CNY 60.8 billion for the first three quarters, with a year-on-year growth of 6.2%, and is expected to improve profitability as tariff risks ease [12] - Tianhai Defense (300008 CH) showed significant growth in Q3, with a revenue increase of 57.27% year-on-year, driven by strong orders in shipbuilding and defense sectors [14] - Kuka Home (603816 CH) reported steady revenue growth of 6.5% in Q3, with a focus on global expansion and brand strength [15] - Weixing New Materials (002372 CH) experienced a revenue decline of 9.83% in Q3, but is expected to see margin recovery as product prices stabilize [16] Group 6: Consumer Goods and Services - Salted Fish (002847 CH) reported a revenue increase of 14.7% year-on-year, with a focus on optimizing product categories and channels to enhance profitability [27] - Petty Co. (300673 CH) continues to see strong growth in its domestic brand, with a focus on single product strategies despite challenges in overseas markets [18] - Jiangsu Bank (601009 CH) reported a steady growth in net profit and revenue, driven by stable interest income and effective cost management [32]
智能化成为机械行业升级新引擎
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-10-27 22:11
机械行业是为国民经济、国防军工和民生事业提供技术装备的基础性、战略性和引领性行业,是工业经 济的"压舱石"。工业和信息化部、农业农村部、商务部等6部门近期联合印发《机械行业稳增长工作方 案(2025—2026年)》(以下简称《方案》),旨在推动机械行业高质量发展,为工业经济稳定运行提 供有力支撑。 规模与质量并重 《方案》提出,2025年至2026年,机械行业运行保持平稳向好态势,重点产业链供应链韧性和安全水平 持续提升,发展质量效益迈上新台阶,力争营业收入年均增速达到3.5%左右,营业收入突破10万亿 元。中国机械工业联合会相关负责人表示,《方案》的目标设定,体现了规模与质量并重的系统性思 维,强调供给和需求两侧协同发力。 "这一目标是基于我国机械行业长期向好的发展趋势,并综合考虑内需、出口、投资等多方面因素而提 出的,有利于稳定行业预期、增强行业信心。"工业和信息化部装备工业发展中心党委书记、副主任柳 新岩说。 完成这一目标,需要全行业共同努力。柳新岩分析,《方案》提出三方面保障措施,主要有以下特点: 一是"实",保障措施提出要加强统筹协调,各部门压实责任,强化协同配合,定期评估政策落实情况和 实施成效; ...
国家发展改革委:市场是最稀缺的资源 将建设强大国内市场
Zhong Guo Jing Ying Bao· 2025-10-27 06:19
中经记者 索寒雪 北京报道 10月24日,中共中央举行新闻发布会,介绍和解读党的二十届四中全会精神。国家发展改革委主任郑栅 洁就"十五五"规划《建议》(以下简称"《建议》")中关于产业发展、市场建设与区域协调等重点内容 进行了深入解读。 第二是"提升效益"。面对年度规模达50万亿元的固定资产投资,郑栅洁强调,必须把资金更好地用在发 展紧要处和民生福祉上。《建议》提出,优化政府投资结构,提高民生类投资比重,加强全过程管理, 更好发挥政府投资的撬动作用,提升综合效益。 郑栅洁强调,传统产业是我国产业体系的"基本盘",其增加值在制造业中占比约80%。《建议》提出, 要推动重点产业提质升级,巩固提升化工、机械、造船等行业国际竞争力,发展先进制造业集群。"初 步估计未来五年将新增约10万亿元市场空间,释放出巨大的发展动能和民生红利。" "大国经济都是以内需为主导,市场是当今世界最稀缺的资源,强大国内市场是中国式现代化的战略依 托。"在谈及市场建设时,郑栅洁指出,《建议》围绕扩大内需战略基点部署了三项关键任务。 第一是"拓展增量"。郑栅洁表示,我国扩大内需潜力巨大。《建议》提出,要深入实施提振消费专项行 动,保持投资合理 ...
科技“猎手”冯明远最新调仓:多只重仓股被明显减仓,重点加仓这两只个股
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-10-27 05:37
Core Viewpoint - The quarterly reports of four public funds managed by Xinda Australia Fund's Feng Mingyuan reveal a significant reduction in the number of holdings, with some stocks seeing a decrease of over 50% compared to the end of Q2 2023, while others like GoerTek and Hengxuan Technology received increased investments [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Holdings Changes - The funds have shown a notable reduction in holdings for stocks such as Huahong Semiconductor, Zhaoyi Innovation, and Sitaiwei-W, with Huahong Semiconductor's shares decreasing by 51.75% to 501,500 shares by the end of Q3 [1][2]. - In contrast, GoerTek and Hengxuan Technology saw increased positions, and some funds initiated new significant holdings in companies like Amlogic and Juchip Technology [1][2]. Group 2: Sector Focus - The fund manager indicated that the primary sectors for investment include electronics, new energy, communications, automotive parts, and machinery, with advancements in AI and robotics expected to drive growth in these industries [1][2]. Group 3: Fund Performance - Despite a cooling in the tech stock market during Q3, the performance of the funds managed by Feng Mingyuan is considered above average, with the highest net value return of 38.71% for the Xinda Leading Intelligent Manufacturing Mixed Fund [2]. - The median performance for mixed equity funds in Q3 was 22.67%, with the top-performing fund achieving a 100.06% increase [2]. Group 4: Fund Size Changes - The total share count for the funds managed by Feng Mingyuan has decreased, with the Xinda Zhiyuan three-year fund dropping from 4.07 billion shares at the end of Q2 to 3.31 billion shares by the end of Q3 [3]. - Institutional investors have also redeemed a significant number of shares from these funds, with one fund seeing a reduction of 77 million shares during the reporting period [3].