2025 年的市场在年末和年初的表现存在显著波动。2024 年底，市场在最后一 天突然拉出了一根中阴线，导致 1 月初连续下跌，直到 2 月初才企稳向上。1 月 13 日后启动了一轮春季攻势，特别是春节后 Deepseek 加入带来了明显的 上涨。 今年（2025 年）3 月，在经历了 Deepseek 带来的上涨后，市场如期 回调，但 4 月初特朗普关税战引发大幅下跌，中断了之前的行情。然而，从 4 月 7 日开始，市场强势反弹，没有出现二次探底。6 月下旬全球窗口交易期间， 市场直接上行，再次展现出小概率事件。 9 月中旬至 10 月初期间，大金融与 泛科技板块走出丝滑走势，但券商被压制后资金转向双创板块，使创业板指数 和科创 50 指数明显上扬。12 月 16 日出现中阴线，但 12 月 17 日神秘资金流 入 A500 ETF，使得原本预期的调整变为上涨趋势。 短期市场向上趋势明显，但需关注驱动因素的可持续性及年底资金退潮 风险。中线来看，整体趋势向上，高点 4,034 预计难以阻挡，长期目标 可看至 4,130。 2025 年行业轮动策略表现最佳，超额收益 20 多个点。展望 2026 年， 需做好 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：华金证券 行业配置：明年1 月建议继续均衡配置科技成长、部分周期和消费等行业。（1）当前成长中的电力设 备、传媒等PEG 较低。（2）明年1 月建议继续均衡配置：一是政策和产业趋势向上的机械设备（机器 人）、军工（商业航天）、电新（核聚变、储能）、电子（半导体、AI 硬件）、通信（AI 硬件）、计 算机（AI 应用、卫星互联网）、传媒（AI 应用、游戏）、医药（创新药）等行业；二是可能补涨和基 本面可能边际改善的券商、消费（食品、商贸零售、社服）等行业。 风险提示：历史经验未来不一定适用，政策超预期变化，经济修复不及预期。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 责任编辑：郭栩彤 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：华金证券 复盘历史，春季行情提前启动时A 股1 月表现偏强，主要受政策和外部事件、流动性等因素影响。 （1）春季行情提前启动时A 股1 月表现多偏强。（2）影响1月A 股走势的主要因素是政策和外部事 件、流动性等。一是政策和外部事件是影 ...

一月春季行情延续，科技和周期占优 定期报告 投资要点 2025 年 12 月 27 日 策略类●证券研究报告 分析师 邓利军 SAC 执业证书编号：S0910523080001 denglijun@huajinsc.cn 分析师 张欣诺 SAC 执业证书编号：S0910525110001 zhangxinnuo@huajinsc.cn 相关报告 新股次新板块弱势博弈，新一轮活跃周期尚 在酝酿-华金证券新股周报 2025.12.21 春季行情开启中，聚焦成长 2025.12.20 局部人气聚集推升新股板块交投意愿，但活 跃周期开启可能仍待观察-华金证券新股周 报 2025.12.14 春季行情中行业如何轮动？ 2025.12.13 挖掘经济潜能，股市慢牛延续 2025.12.12 复盘历史，春季行情提前启动时 A 股 1 月表现偏强，主要受政策和外部事件、流 动性等因素影响。（1）春季行情提前启动时 A 股 1 月表现多偏强。（2）影响 1 月 A 股走势的主要因素是政策和外部事件、流动性等。一是政策和外部事件是影响 1 月 A 股走势的核心因素：首先，积极的政策和外部事件可能导致上证综指上涨， 如 2019 ...

Core Viewpoint - The spring market rally is likely to continue in January, with A-shares expected to show a strong upward trend, driven by technology growth and certain cyclical industries [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends and Influences - Historical data indicates that when the spring market rally starts early, A-shares tend to perform strongly in January, influenced by policies, external events, and liquidity [2]. - Key factors affecting A-share performance in January include positive policies and external events, which can lead to an increase in the Shanghai Composite Index, as seen in past instances like the easing of US-China trade tensions in 2019 and the optimization of pandemic policies in 2023 [2]. - Liquidity plays a crucial role in January's A-share performance; a loose liquidity environment may lead to an increase in A-shares, while tight liquidity could result in weaker performance [2]. Group 2: Economic and Policy Outlook - Positive policy expectations are anticipated to rise in January, with potential announcements of provincial "14th Five-Year" plans and consumer stimulus measures [3]. - Global central banks are expected to continue easing, and the relationship between China and the US is likely to remain stable, with limited external risks [3]. - Economic recovery is expected to continue, albeit weakly, with corporate profit growth likely to improve, particularly in technology and cyclical sectors [3]. Group 3: Sector Performance Expectations - Technology growth and certain cyclical industries are expected to outperform in January, driven by upward trends in the technology sector, particularly in artificial intelligence, and demand for non-ferrous metals and chemicals [4]. - Historical analysis shows that when the spring market rally begins early, technology growth sectors tend to perform relatively better in January [4]. - The upcoming themes in January, such as commercial aerospace and controllable nuclear fusion, are expected to catalyze market interest [4]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - A balanced allocation strategy is recommended for January, focusing on technology growth, cyclical sectors, and consumer industries [5]. - Specific sectors suggested for investment include machinery (robots), military (commercial aerospace), new energy (nuclear fusion, energy storage), electronics (semiconductors, AI hardware), and media (AI applications, gaming) [5]. - There is potential for recovery in brokerage firms and consumer sectors (food, retail, and social services) that may see marginal improvements in fundamentals [5].

2025 年 12 月 25 日 ：王禾 执业证书编号：S1230512110001 ：021-80105901 ：wanghe@stocke.com.cn 证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 12 月 25 日 浙商早知道 市场总览 重要观点 重要点评 【浙商大制造中观策略 邱世梁/张菁】汽车零部件 行业深度：汽车轻量化浪潮下，以塑代钢空间广阔—— 20251223 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 大势：12 月 24 日上证指数上涨 0.53%，沪深 300 上涨 0.29%，科创 50 上涨 0.9%，中证 1000 上涨 1.54%，创业 板指上涨 0.77%，恒生指数上涨 0.17% 行业：12 月 24 日表现最好的行业分别是国防军工（+2.88%)、电子（+2.12%)、建筑材料（+1.72%)、轻工制造 （+1.69%)、机械设备（+1.49%)，表现最差的行业分别是农林牧渔（-0.85%)、煤炭（-0.7%)、食品饮料（- 0.36%)、银行（-0.3%)、传媒（+0.01%)。 资金：12 月 24 日全 A 总 ...

Core Insights - The market is experiencing a range-bound fluctuation, with major indices showing mixed performance, indicating a "three changes in direction over three days" characteristic [1][56] - Future trading strategies are shifting from "defensive volatility and reduced elasticity" to "finding entry points and waiting for opportunities" as the market adjustment becomes more sufficient [1][58] - The report suggests a cautious approach to timing, advising against chasing prices and increasing costs, while setting "strike zones" based on previous index lows [1][58] Market Overview - Major indices showed mixed results this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shanghai 50 rising by 0.03% and 0.32% respectively, while the CSI 300 fell by 0.28% [12][56] - The consumer sector showed signs of recovery, with significant gains in retail and consumer services, while technology-related sectors experienced adjustments [15][57] - Average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets decreased to 1.74 trillion yuan, down from 1.94 trillion yuan the previous week [17][28] Sector Analysis - The consumer sector saw notable recovery, with retail and consumer services rising by 6.58% and 4.40% respectively, while non-bank financials increased by 2.99% [15][57] - Conversely, technology-related sectors such as electrical equipment and electronics saw declines, with drops of 3.09% and 3.02% respectively [15][57] Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on the brokerage sector, which is showing signs of underperformance but expanding market share, and suggests monitoring the home appliance sector, which historically performs well in December [1][58] - Individual stocks in the pharmaceutical, consumer, and AI application sectors that are relatively low in price should be considered, along with low-performing stocks above the annual line [1][58]

Core Insights - The report introduces a new two-dimensional framework for analyzing industry prosperity, focusing on diffusion and dispersion metrics to provide a fresh perspective on investment strategies [1][2]. - It emphasizes the importance of absolute high prosperity over marginal high prosperity, indicating that long-term perspectives yield higher returns on earnings per share (EPS) [2][16]. - The report constructs a prosperity investment effectiveness index based on quarterly year-over-year (Q-YOY) data, which shows better performance than cumulative year-over-year (C-YOY) data [2][23]. Traditional One-Dimensional Prosperity Comparison - The report critiques the traditional one-dimensional approach that uses a single profitability growth rate for each industry, which simplifies market narratives to "who is accelerating and who is declining" [2][12]. - It raises questions about the importance of single-quarter versus cumulative profitability data, concluding that single-quarter data yields better investment outcomes [2][12][16]. - The report highlights that absolute high prosperity is more significant than marginal high prosperity, as evidenced by better net value performance in absolute high prosperity groups [2][16]. Two-Dimensional Prosperity Measurement - The report proposes measuring structural prosperity through two indicators: diffusion (measuring breadth) and dispersion (measuring structural strength) [2][2]. - It notes that the diffusion index influences "positioning," while the dispersion index affects "industry allocation bias" [2][2]. - The report suggests that the dispersion index is highly correlated with China's Producer Price Index (PPI), indicating that higher dispersion often coincides with rising PPI phases [2][14]. Application of the Two-Dimensional Framework - The report discusses the strategic value of diffusion and dispersion, asserting that they can better reflect the current market state than traditional methods [2][2]. - It emphasizes the need to analyze the composition of dispersion values to understand structural market trends, particularly in technology sectors [2][21]. - The report concludes that differentiation is the foundation of effective prosperity investment, with expectations for continued upward trends in diffusion and dispersion indices [2][24]. Conclusion and Outlook - The report anticipates that both diffusion and dispersion will likely trend upward, supporting the market's beta value [2][24]. - It recommends focusing on technology sectors such as computers, communications, and advanced manufacturing, as well as cyclical resource sectors like steel and chemicals [2][24].

- The report discusses the market performance on December 16, 2025, highlighting that most indices were in a declining state, with the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index performing relatively better, despite a 1.08% drop[6] - The report also notes that the North Exchange 50 Index performed well, increasing by 0.54%, while other indices such as the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 saw declines of 1.58% and 1.74%, respectively[6] - In terms of sector performance, the comprehensive financial, retail, consumer services, food and beverage, and transportation sectors performed relatively well, while the non-ferrous metals, communications, electrical equipment, media, and machinery sectors performed poorly[7] - The report provides detailed data on market sentiment, noting that 44 stocks hit their daily limit up and 38 stocks hit their daily limit down at the close of trading on December 16, 2025[13] - The report includes information on the financing and securities lending balance, which stood at 25,057 billion yuan as of December 15, 2025, with a financing balance of 24,886 billion yuan and a securities lending balance of 171 billion yuan[19] - The report also discusses the premium and discount rates of ETFs, noting that the Science and Technology Innovation 100 ETF from China Universal had the highest premium at 0.99%, while the Private Enterprise 300 ETF had the highest discount at 0.52% on December 15, 2025[23] - The report provides data on block trading, noting that the average daily transaction amount of block trades over the past six months was 2.1 billion yuan, with a discount rate of 6.64%, and the transaction amount on December 15, 2025, was 4.1 billion yuan with a discount rate of 4.82%[26] - The report includes information on the annualized discount rates of stock index futures, noting that the main contract of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index had an annualized discount rate of 9.55% on December 16, 2025, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 index futures had annualized premium rates of 10.57% and 8.56%, respectively[28] - The report provides data on institutional attention and the Dragon and Tiger List, noting that Haiguang Information was the most researched stock by institutions in the past week, with 342 institutions conducting research[30] - The report includes data on the net inflow and outflow of institutional seats, noting that the top ten stocks with the highest net inflow were Zhongchao Holdings, Aerospace Technology, Snowman Group, Chuangshi Technology, Wavelength Optoelectronics, Zhilaike Technology, Hengbao Co., Ltd., Hongqi Chain, Tianjian Technology, and Dapeng Industry[35] - The report also provides data on the net inflow and outflow of Northbound funds, noting that the top ten stocks with the highest net inflow were Yonghui Superstores, Snowman Group, Wavelength Optoelectronics, Hengbao Co., Ltd., Duolun Technology, Hualing Cable, Jiuziyang, Cuiwei Co., Ltd., Jingda Co., Ltd., and Tongyu Communications[36]

Core Insights - The market shows a clear differentiation with a "weak Shanghai, strong Shenzhen" pattern, where most broad-based indices have retreated after reaching highs [1][12][53] - The report anticipates continued market fluctuations within a range due to insufficient strength in heavyweight indices and significant sector divergence [1][4][55] - Suggested investment strategy includes a cautious approach, focusing on sectors that are lagging yet expanding, such as brokerage firms, home appliances, and machinery equipment [1][5][56] Market Overview - Major indices experienced a "weak Shanghai, strong Shenzhen" pattern, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shanghai 50, and CSI 300 down by 0.34%, 0.25%, and 0.08% respectively, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.84% [12][53] - The technology and hard science sectors led the gains, with telecommunications rising by 5.92%, while cyclical and consumer sectors showed weakness [15][54] - Daily average trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets increased to 2.33 trillion yuan, with a rise in margin trading balances [22][29] Sector Analysis - The report highlights that 9 out of 30 major sectors increased, while 21 decreased, indicating a strong performance in technology and hard science sectors, contrasted by declines in cyclical and consumer sectors [15][54] - Notable sector performances include military, electronics, and machinery, which saw increases of 3.57%, 2.51%, and 1.33% respectively, while coal, oil, and real estate sectors faced declines [15][54] Investment Strategy - The report advises a "wait and see" approach, recommending investors avoid chasing prices and instead set targets based on historical lows of various indices [5][56] - Specific sectors to watch include brokerage firms, which are lagging but expanding, home appliances with a strong historical performance in December, and machinery equipment benefiting from recent positive news [1][5][56] - Individual stocks in the pharmaceutical, consumer, and AI application sectors that are relatively low in price should be monitored, along with those that are lagging above the annual line [5][56]

Core Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11 in Beijing outlined key tasks for China's economic work in 2026, emphasizing the importance of maintaining confidence and leveraging advantages to address challenges [1][9] Economic Work Focus Areas - **Domestic Demand**: Emphasis on building a strong domestic market through consumption initiatives, income increase plans, and investment stabilization [1][11] - **Innovation Drive**: Focus on fostering new growth drivers by enhancing education, technology, and talent development, and establishing international innovation centers [1][11] - **Reform and High-Quality Development**: Commitment to deepening reforms, including a unified market construction and addressing competitive practices [2][11] - **Opening Up**: Promotion of multi-field cooperation and gradual expansion of service sector openness, along with enhancing foreign investment mechanisms [2][11] - **Coordinated Development**: Efforts to promote urban-rural integration and regional collaboration, ensuring stable prices for essential agricultural products [2][11] - **Green Transition**: Initiatives aimed at energy efficiency and carbon reduction across key industries [2][11] - **Public Welfare**: Focus on improving people's livelihoods through job stability and healthcare reforms [3][11] - **Risk Management**: Strategies to stabilize the real estate market and manage local government debt risks [3][11] Market Opportunities - **Technology and Manufacturing Exports**: Attention on sectors like semiconductor equipment, AI, and robotics, as well as traditional manufacturing exports [6][14] - **Supply Optimization**: Focus on industries with resource constraints and potential price increases, alongside sectors benefiting from policy adjustments [6][14] - **Consumer and Service Sector Upgrades**: Anticipation of a positive macroeconomic policy environment boosting consumer sectors, particularly in retail and food and beverage [6][14]