人民财讯12月10日电，近日，在中欧基金2026年度投资策略会上，中欧权益研究部副总监、基金经理任 飞表示，与以往经济周期不同，当前有两股趋势性力量正在形成额外的电力需求：一是AI数据中心的 快速扩张，二是再工业化带来的高耗能产业转移与供应链重建。这两者均独立于传统经济波动，且增速 显著。从中远期来看，全球在未来几年需要额外消耗的用电需求或将面临巨大提升。 在此逻辑下，任飞认为有三大方向值得关注：一是供给约束，电解铝等高耗能行业或受直接限制；二是 需求提振，全球性电力紧张推升光伏、储能需求，2027-2028年海外储能市场或迎增长；三是中国优 势，中国电力供应相对充裕，高耗能制造业成本与供应链优势将进一步凸显。 ...

常纪文说，面对欧盟碳边境调节机制等国际绿色贸易要求，我国可将钢铁、电解铝、化工等面临减排压力的产业，与风光发电基地进行区位耦合，或利用跨 区域输送的绿电开展低碳转型。 国务院发展研究中心资源与环境政策研究所副所长常纪文在会上发言。（王吉如 摄） 依托系统的能源优势打造系统的产业优势成为工作抓手。常纪文说，面对欧盟碳边境调节机制等国际绿色贸易要求，我国可将钢铁、电解铝、化工等面临减 排压力的产业，与风光发电基地进行区位耦合，或利用跨区域输送的绿电开展低碳转型。"耦合路径必须立足本地资源禀赋，发展具有能源特色的重化工业 升级版，将清洁能源优势转化为产业竞争优势。" 先行实践已展开探索。常纪文在演讲中介绍，中石化在鄂尔多斯启动的全球最大绿氢耦合煤化工项目，该项目通过风光发电制氢，每年可减少二氧化碳排放 143万吨；全国首条跨省绿氢管道"内蒙古—京津冀"示范工程已获批，建成后年输氢能力可达50万吨，为石化、炼化等产业提供绿氢替代。此外，福田氢燃 料重卡已应用于京津塘高速干线物流，湖北黄石率先投放氢能源两轮车，意味着氢能正从工业领域走向民生交通领域。 新华财经广州12月9日电（记者印朋、吕光一）"统筹构建新型能源体系和 ...

该行测算2025Q4至2026Q4潜在新增有效产能约为246.1万吨，在扣除因电力合同困境或电气设备故障预 计减产20-70万吨后，全球2026年实际贡献新增产量仅86-125万吨，较经该行预测的2025年全球产量增 长仅1.2%至1.7%;在逆全球化背景下，该行认为区域性的供需错配将进一步加快全球铝产业链重塑，海 外铝锭库存或在近几年或稳步走高，这将成为"新的需求"，而当下(2025.11)的铜铝比价(3.8)意味着铝价 更多受到铜价上涨的牵引，铝行业有望享受"铝代铜"带来的需求增量，以及自身电力成本刚性所形成的 利润壁垒这双重红利。 观点四：我国电解铝企业正在经历从周期股向红利资产转变的关键节点 电解铝板块自2021年以来进入去杠杆周期，行业从"增量竞争"转向"存量优化"。企业无法再通过扩张规 模来竞争，资本开支逐年回落。供需格局在产能受限和需求(如新能源汽车、光伏)支撑下趋于紧平衡， 行业利润维持在较高水平，为企业改善资产负债表提供了充足的现金流，随着企业资本开支率 (CAPEX/EBITA)的下行，财务结构更为健康，持续分红具备了有利条件，整体电解铝行业股息率有望 进一步提升。 观点二：我国电解铝供给 ...

2026 年金属年度策略：百花盛开 20251207 摘要 全球经济预计软着陆并复苏，制造业 PMI 回升至 50 以上，叠加低库存 和弱美元周期，为有色金属市场提供有利宏观环境，预计美国 2026 年 或降息两到三次，高赤字和宽财政政策短期内难以改变。 中国出口压力缓解，房地产下滑趋势收敛，国内流动性与全球同步宽松， 中美经济前景总体乐观，低库存和供给侧受限对商品有利，预计 2026 年全球贸易活力依旧旺盛，钢铁出口需求相对较好。 黄金边际定价者变化，央行增持黄金以保值，目前黄金在央行储备占比 约 20%，远低于历史中位数，未来金价预计维持平台震荡或震荡上行， 即使金价不上涨，多数矿业公司也具备成长潜力，预测 2026 年金价可 能涨超 4,800 美元。 预计 2026 年全球电解铝增量约 120 万吨，增速 1.7%，2027 年增至 220 万吨以上，增速超 3%。中国电解铝需求预计增长 2%，海外需求 增速 2.4%-2.5%，需求增速高于供给，低库存下电解铝价格或进一步 上涨，看好电解铝市场表现。 Q&A 请简要介绍一下 2026 年有色金属行业的整体预期。 2026 年预计将是有色金属行业表现非 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is transitioning towards a "spring rally" with potential catalysts emerging, particularly as the year-end approaches and new policies are anticipated [2][13]. Group 1: Market Trends and Strategies - The strategy for 2026 emphasizes embracing "Galloping Assets" which are global competitive leaders, indicating a shift towards value reassessment [1][12]. - The A-share market has shown a recovery with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 10% to above 3800 points [1][12]. - The current market phase is characterized by a period of observation and consolidation, with the potential for a spring rally to begin as early as December [2][13]. Group 2: Spring Rally Insights - The "spring rally" is expected to occur around the Lunar New Year, typically 1-2 weeks prior, with historical data suggesting a strong upward trend during this period [3][5]. - The likelihood of a spring rally varies based on market conditions: high during bottom-stimulus periods, moderate during continuation phases, and limited during downturns [4][6]. - Key indicators for the timing of the rally include significant new positive or negative developments, with potential early triggers in December [6][10]. Group 3: Sector and Style Preferences - The market favors smaller-cap indices like CSI 1000 and CSI 2000, which have shown a nearly 90% success rate with an average excess return of over 4% [6][19]. - Growth and technology sectors are highlighted as having an 80% success rate, also with an average excess return of over 4% [7][19]. - The top-performing industries are expected to be in the first tier: computer, communication, and electronics, with a second tier including machinery, chemicals, and military industries, all showing excess returns of over 3% [8][19]. Group 4: Long-term Investment Directions - The focus for long-term investments includes quality cyclical stocks benefiting from policy expectations in sectors like real estate, consumer goods, and resources [10][20]. - The strategy for the upcoming year includes a focus on "Galloping Assets" that align with China's economic transformation and global competition, particularly in technology, high-end manufacturing, consumption, and resource sectors [10][20].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.7% to 3902.81, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.08% to 13147.68, and the ChiNext Index gained 1.36% to 3109.30 [1][2] - A total of 4427 stocks closed higher, while 914 stocks closed lower, indicating a positive market sentiment [1][3] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.73 trillion, an increase of 176.8 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] Performance Metrics - The 20-day performance for the Shanghai Composite Index showed a decline of 2.37%, while the Shenzhen Component Index experienced a decrease of 1.91% [2] - The annual performance for the Shanghai Composite Index is up by 16.44%, and the Shenzhen Component Index has increased by 26.24% [2] - The ChiNext Index has seen a significant annual increase of 45.19% [2] Sector Performance - Sectors such as insurance, precious metals, and commercial aerospace showed strong gains, while traditional sectors like Chinese medicine and film exhibition faced declines [2] - The electric aluminum concept stocks experienced volatility, with companies like Hongchuang Holdings and Yun Aluminum reaching historical highs [2] - The robotics sector saw a rebound, with companies like Boke Technology rising over 10% [2] Notable Stock Movements - The stock of Moer Thread opened high with a 468% increase, leading to significant profits for investors [2] - Companies in the Fujian sector, such as Sanmu Group and Haixin Food, reached their daily limit [2] - The AI glasses concept saw a surge, with Doctor's Glasses rising over 10% [2] Market Sentiment - The overall market sentiment is improving, with a board sealing rate close to 80% [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission has allocated 35.5 billion for investment projects, indicating government support for economic growth [2]

智通财经12月5日讯，今日73股涨停，21股炸板，封板率为78%，太阳电缆、安记食品4连板，龙洲股份、国机重装、骏亚科技3连板，航天机电6天4板，航 天发展16天10板，海王生物、海欣食品8天7板，实达集团12天7板，国风新材13天7板，顺灏股份6天5板。市场探底回升，创业板指涨超1%，早盘一度跌超 0.5%。沪深两市成交额1.73万亿，较上一个交易日放量1768亿。盘面上，市场热点轮番活跃，全市场近4400只个股上涨。板块方面，保险、贵金属、福建、 商业航天等板块涨幅居前，银行、中药、影视院线等板块跌幅居前。截至收盘，沪指涨0.7%，深成指涨1.08%，创业板指涨1.36%。 人气及连板股分析 连板晋级率升至70%，虽然市场连板高度仍维持4板，但3板以上连板股增至7只。高位股方向展开超预期修复，昨日断板的几只连板人气股海欣食品、顺灏 股份等实现反包涨停，带动所属的福建、商业航天等热门方向强度进一步提升。此外伴随成交量能放大超1700亿，容量抱团方向算力硬件、机器人、大金融 等轮动走强，不排除部分资金对市场流动性修复预期进行抢先手。若下周指数方面继续展开修复，或仍不利于投机小票方向人气继续提升，关注市场连板高 ...

Group 1: Supply-Side Reform Background - The supply-side reform aims to address excessive capacity in the midstream and upstream sectors after a decade of expansion in export manufacturing and significant infrastructure investment[1] - In 2015, the capacity utilization rate of industrial enterprises in China fell to 74%, below the international standard of 75% for severe overcapacity[8] - By 2015, 13 out of 14 major industrial sectors were experiencing severe overcapacity, particularly in heavy industries like steel and coal[9] Group 2: Causes of Overcapacity - Overcapacity was primarily driven by excessive external and internal demand expansion, leading to abnormal capacity growth[2] - Local governments, incentivized by GDP growth targets, contributed to overcapacity by supporting state-owned enterprises in upstream investments[2] - The overcapacity issue was exacerbated by repeated construction of heavy industrial projects, driven by local government interests in boosting GDP and tax revenues[10] Group 3: Economic Impact - From 2012 to 2015, domestic industrial prices plummeted, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) recording negative values for three consecutive years[10] - By 2015, the total debt in six overcapacity industries reached 10 trillion yuan, with 8.7 trillion yuan classified as debt[15] - The banking sector faced rising non-performing loan rates, with the total non-performing loan balance reaching 1.2744 trillion yuan by the end of 2015, a 51.2% increase from the previous year[65] Group 4: Capacity Reduction Strategies - The reform included three main strategies: administrative capacity reduction, industry self-discipline with staggered production, and market-driven natural clearance[17][18][79] - Administrative measures focused on controlling new capacity, eliminating outdated capacity, and encouraging enterprise restructuring, particularly in state-dominated sectors like steel and coal[17] - The steel industry saw a reduction of 120 million tons of crude steel capacity from 2016 to 2017, achieving 80% of its capacity reduction target[28] Group 5: Outcomes of Supply-Side Reform - The steel industry's capacity utilization improved significantly, with the industry concentration rising to 60% by 2020[29] - The coal industry eliminated 810 million tons of capacity between 2016 and 2018, exceeding the targets set for the 13th Five-Year Plan[30] - The cement industry's profits increased from 33 billion yuan in 2015 to 154.6 billion yuan in 2018, reflecting improved pricing and profitability[33]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the non-ferrous and steel sectors, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in these industries [9][10]. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that a cross-year market for gold and copper may unfold, making it an opportune time to invest in non-ferrous metals [9][10]. - It highlights that the copper supply shortage is expected to continue, which may drive up copper prices, while strict control over smelting capacity could lead to improved profitability for midstream players [9][10]. - The report also emphasizes the bullish outlook for gold prices, projecting a rise to $4,500 per ounce by the end of 2025 and potentially exceeding $5,000 per ounce in 2026 [9][10]. - For the electrolytic aluminum sector, the report suggests that despite recent stock dilution, the overall supply-demand dynamics remain intact, presenting opportunities for investment [9][10]. Summary by Sections Non-Ferrous Metals - The report notes a 3.37% increase in the non-ferrous metals sector, driven by a significant rise in copper prices due to supply constraints and inflation expectations [9][10]. - It highlights the historical high copper premium set by Codelco, which is expected to further tighten supply [9][10]. - The report recommends focusing on investment opportunities in copper, gold, and aluminum sectors [9][10]. Steel Industry - The report indicates a slight decrease in iron and steel production, with rebar consumption at 2.28 million tons, down 1.23% week-on-week but up 1.15% year-on-year [16][21]. - It mentions that overall steel inventory continues to decline, with total social and steel mill inventories down by 2.15% [23][24]. - The profitability of most steel products has significantly improved due to rising costs, with the average price index for common steel rising by 0.42% [26][35]. New Energy Metals - The report states that lithium carbonate production in October 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase of 67.28%, indicating strong supply growth [39][40]. - It also notes that the production of new energy vehicles continues to grow, with October 2025 production reaching 1.68 million units, up 19.94% year-on-year [43][46]. - The report highlights price increases in lithium and cobalt, with lithium carbonate priced at 93,300 yuan per ton, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.27% week-on-week [49][50].

Group 1 - The current A-share bull market is part of a six-year global liquidity expansion driven by post-2020 monetary easing, with systemic revaluation of key assets such as gold, US tech stocks, and European/Japanese manufacturing [1][11] - The return of cross-border capital to China is expected to systematically reassess the competitive advantages of Chinese manufacturing, particularly in sectors like new energy, chemicals, and medical devices [2][12] - The A-share market is likely to experience volatility in 2026, with either a stagnation of the bull market or a "Davis Double Play" in consumer sectors, as external exports may not drive profits due to high base effects [3][13] Group 2 - The industrialization maturity phase in China has led to a bull market for core assets, driven by improved domestic consumption and the ability of manufacturing to generate national wealth through exports [4][14] - The recommendation for industry allocation focuses on a combination of "existing," "new," and "high" sectors, emphasizing non-ferrous metals, new consumption trends, and high-end manufacturing [5][14] Group 3 - The investment logic for China Hongqiao includes short-term price increases in electrolytic aluminum and long-term growth driven by integrated operations and high dividends [17][19] - For Luoyang Molybdenum, the investment rationale is based on the rising copper cycle and diversified product offerings, with a focus on sustainable growth [20][22] - Huafeng Aluminum is positioned for growth through high-end aluminum processing and international expansion, capitalizing on trends in the automotive sector [25][28] Group 4 - Nanjing Steel's strategy involves creating a fully integrated supply chain and exploring new growth points to stabilize returns on equity [29][32] - Dongfang Tower's investment logic is driven by rising prices of potassium chloride and phosphate rock, with ongoing capacity expansion [33][36] - Luxshare Precision is transitioning to an AI hardware manufacturer, benefiting from increased demand for computing power and AI models [37][40] Group 5 - Great Wall Motors is focusing on high-end SUVs and global expansion, with new model launches expected to drive sales [41][44] - Leap Motor is leveraging competitive pricing and differentiation in the domestic and overseas markets, with new models and subsidies supporting growth [45][48] - Heng Rui Pharmaceutical is advancing its clinical pipeline with over 100 innovative products, aiming for significant growth through international collaborations and new product approvals [49][51] Group 6 - Yifeng Pharmacy is expected to improve its market share through enhanced operational efficiency and strategic store adjustments [54][59] - Dongfang Electric is positioned to benefit from rising global demand for gas turbines, driven by AI-related power needs [60][63]