Summary of the Electrolytic Aluminum Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The electrolytic aluminum sector presents significant investment opportunities, categorized into two types: stable high-dividend companies (e.g., Hongqiao, Hongchuang, Zhongfu, Tianshan) and economically resilient high-elasticity companies (e.g., Shenhuo, Yun Aluminum, China Aluminum, Huadong) [1][2] - The top return on equity (ROE) for resource companies typically reaches 40%-60%, with Zijin Mining and China Hongqiao achieving 20% [1][4] - Domestic ROE may have reached 50%-60%, indicating that irrational supply expansion is unlikely [1][4] Market Dynamics - Despite a challenging global economy, prices for metals like copper and aluminum are rising, driven by industrial resilience, demand for new energy, and a trend of consumer downgrading [1][6] - Increased consumer purchases of vehicles and 3C products, along with greater industrial equipment investment, support long-term demand for copper and aluminum [1][6] - The copper and zinc industries maintain rigid supply, suggesting potential price growth exceeding that of coal [1][7] Investment Strategy - The current investment strategy emphasizes electrolytic aluminum due to long-term industrial recovery, rigid supply, and declining costs, with expectations for profit recovery [2][20] - The best investment timing for copper and zinc stocks is after a peak in gold prices, indicating the start of industrial recovery [8][9] - Copper and aluminum stocks are expected to see valuation increases in the latter part of the interest rate cut cycle, with current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 11-12 times for copper and 1.5 times for aluminum indicating high value [10][9] Seasonal Trends - The copper and aluminum markets perform well from February to April and July to September, as prices are typically high and inventories low during these periods [11] Demand Characteristics - Aluminum demand has shown strong resilience, with an annual growth rate of approximately 5%, outpacing copper and steel [12] - The electric revolution has driven stable growth in copper demand, while aluminum's diverse applications contribute to its stronger growth potential [12] Supply Situation - Domestic production capacity is constrained due to high energy consumption policies, while overseas capacity additions are slower than expected due to regulatory challenges [13][14] - Global annual capacity additions are around one million tons, indicating slow overall supply growth [14] Financial Health - The industry has seen significant cash flow improvements and reduced debt ratios, with companies like Hongqiao increasing their net operating income from 20 billion to approximately 60 billion [16] - The overall sector is experiencing a high dividend trend, similar to the coal industry after years of balance sheet repair [16][19] Dividend Trends - The aluminum sector is showing a positive trend in dividends, with companies like Hongqiao increasing their payout ratio from 50% to 60% [17] - State-owned enterprises are also beginning to show marginal increases in dividends, suggesting further potential for growth [17] Stock Selection - Stock selection is straightforward, divided into two categories: companies with completed integration and stable dividends (e.g., China Hongqiao) and those with capital expenditure expectations (e.g., China Aluminum) [18] Future Outlook - The aluminum industry has a positive outlook, with expectations for further recovery in profitability and cash flow, and the sector remains undervalued with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of approximately 1.5 times [19][20] - Short-term fluctuations in aluminum prices are expected, but long-term demand resilience suggests a steady upward trend in price levels [21]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses various economic indicators and trends in different sectors, highlighting the current state of liquidity, construction, real estate, industrial products, and export chains, along with price movements and production metrics. Liquidity - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -5.6 percentage points in May 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 1.1 percentage points [3] - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index was 49.12 in June 2025, reflecting a slight increase of 0.07% from the previous month [3] - London gold prices increased by 1.94% compared to the previous week [3] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The average daily crude steel output of key enterprises in late June was 2.129 million tons, showing a month-on-month decrease of 0.88% [4] - Price changes included rebar up by 2.91%, cement price index down by 1.68%, and iron ore up by 3.55% [4] - National capacity utilization rates for blast furnaces, cement, asphalt, and all-steel tires changed by -0.54 percentage points, +16.00 percentage points, -0.6 percentage points, and -1.89 percentage points respectively [4] Real Estate Completion Chain - Prices for titanium dioxide and flat glass decreased by 1.47% and remained unchanged respectively, with glass profit at -58 CNY/ton and titanium dioxide profit at -1227 CNY/ton [5] - The operating rate for flat glass was 75.68% this week [5] Industrial Products Chain - The PMI new orders index for June was 50.20%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.4 percentage points [6] - Major commodity prices showed mixed results, with cold-rolled steel and copper prices increasing by 0.27% and 0.22%, while aluminum prices decreased by 0.91% [6] - The operating rate for semi-steel tires was 70.41%, down by 7.64 percentage points [6] Subcategories - The capacity utilization rate for electrolytic aluminum reached a record high since 2012 in May [7] - The price of electrolytic aluminum was 20,750 CNY/ton, down by 0.91%, with a calculated profit of 3,428 CNY/ton (excluding tax) [7] - The price of graphite electrodes remained stable at 18,000 CNY/ton, with a comprehensive profit of 1,357.4 CNY/ton, down by 5.56% [7] Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore reached a near seven-month high at 4.27 this week [8] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel was 110 CNY/ton, while the price difference between cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel reached 340 CNY/ton, up by 170 CNY/ton [8] - The price difference for small rebar (used in real estate) and large rebar (used in infrastructure) was 140 CNY/ton, down by 26.32% from last week [8] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in June 2025 was 47.70%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2 percentage points [9] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates was 1,342.99 points, down by 1.92% [9] - The capacity utilization rate for U.S. crude steel was 79.10%, down by 0.50 percentage points [9] Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index increased by 1.54%, with the best-performing cyclical sector being ordinary steel, which rose by 6.52% [10] - The PB ratios for ordinary steel and industrial metals relative to the CSI 300 PB were 37.44% and 69.40% respectively [10] - The current PB ratio for the ordinary steel sector relative to the CSI 300 PB is 0.53, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82 [10]

期货研究报告 | 宏观组 宏观半年报 z 下半年需求顺周期偏弱，政策呈现"易松难紧"的格局。短期顺周期的情绪拖累仍不容忽视，长期通胀上行风险值得关注。海外核心是 货币主导的通胀预期，需要看到美联储顺利重启宽松周期，黄金、原油、有色相对受益。国内的核心是供给侧政策，参考 2015 年：1、 供给侧减产明显的板块涨幅更大，如 2015 年的黑色板块；2、产业利润也有所改善，中下游受益较上游更明显。本轮关注黑色板块、 新能源金属等板块。 通胀预期的兑现路径探讨 宏观组研究报告 本期分析研究员 徐闻宇 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 华泰期货研究院宏观研究 2025 年 7 月 6 日 蔡劭立 从业资格号：F3063489 投资咨询号：Z0014617 高聪 从业资格号：F3063338 投资咨询号：Z0016648 汪雅航 从业资格号：F03099648 投资咨询号：Z0019185 朱思谋 从业资格号：F03142856 宏观组 | 宏观半年报 2025-7-6 通胀预期的兑现路径探讨 研究院 宏观组 研究员 徐闻宇 邮箱： xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F029987 ...

以下文章来源于黑貔貅俱乐部 ，作者黑貔貅 黑貔貅俱乐部 . 宏观经济 ，亮点行业，大类资产配置 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：黑貔貅俱乐部 来源：雪球 站在当下看未来的3-5年 ， 反内卷或许会成为影响中国社会以及经济最重要的事件之一 。 映射到资本市场 上也会带来巨大的投资机会 ， 尤其是对商品而言 ， 可能会成为影响部分品种的核心变量 。 尽管大家都在 类比16年的供给侧改革 ， 但是我觉得还是有很大的差异性 。 01 有较大的背景跟性质差异 15年过剩的行业相对集中在中上游领域 ， 产品的同质化竞争是比较严重的 ， 比如钢铁 ， 水泥 ， 电解铝 ， 玻璃等等 ， 大家生成的东西没有多少不同 ， 价格上也没有多少差距 。 而且这种过剩很大程度上是因为 2011-2012年的经济繁荣带来的投资 ， 主要是周期性因素为主 ， 通过棚改货币化刺激需求以及行政手段 压减无效产能 ， 退出效果还是比较显著的 。 但是本轮产能主要集中在终端消费领域 ， 产品的差距还是很大 ， 中低高端都有 ， 很难通过行政命令去去 化 ， 比如光伏是差异化过剩问题 。 ...

风险提示 国内宏观经济增速放缓；关税等因素影响出口需求与产业链稳定性；原材料价格波动 有色、钢铁行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 反内卷是钢铁行业的中期投资逻辑 ——钢铁行业周思考（2025 年第 27 周） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色、钢铁行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 07 月 06 日 看好（维持） 刘洋 021-63325888*6084 liuyang3@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860520010002 香港证监会牌照：BTB487 | | | | 重点关注盈利稳定、高分红的电解铝板块 | 2025-07-03 | | --- | --- | | 投 资 机 会 ： — — 有 色 钢 铁 行 业 周 观 点 | | | （2025 年第 26 周） | | | 从战略与策略角度看稀土板块的配置价 | 2025-06-23 | | 值：——有色钢铁行业周观点（2025 年第 | | | 25 周） | | | 重视稀土产业链的供给侧逻辑：——有色 | 2025-06-08 | | 钢铁行业周观点（2025 年第 23 周） | | 有关分析师 ...

当前反内卷式供给侧改革与上一轮供给侧改革有何不同？ "反内卷"——供给侧改革机遇：钢铁+电解铝+硅！ 20250703 摘要 当前反内卷式供给侧改革旨在优化资源分配，与上一轮侧重上游原料去 杠杆、推高价格不同，本轮改革更关注产业链整体困境，需产能出清、 需求回升、宏观经济配合及库存周期反转等多重因素共振，目前仍处于 预期阶段。 钢铁行业今年表现为低盈利、低库存、低产量，易受政策和预期催化， 行情分两阶段：第一波为预期驱动的短平快行情，第二波伴随政策落地 后企业盈利改善而缓慢修复，整体情绪修复后存在超跌反弹机会。 针对钢铁、电解铝和工业硅等金属子板块，政策硬约束卡住供给端扩张， 通过市场手段终结价格战，提高产品品质，加速落后产能出清，并配套 公平竞争审查条例及全国统一大市场建设指引，打破地方保护主义。 当前股票投资应抓住政策催化的短平快行情，但幅度中性，第二波行情 则伴随细则落地后企业盈利改善而缓慢向上修复，更稳当持久，应关注 政策落实和各项条件共振带来的反转信号。 Q&A 中央财经委第六次会议释放了哪些关键信号，对钢铁、电解铝和硅行业有何影 响？ 中央财经委第六次会议释放了整治低价无序竞争、倒逼落后产能退出的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industries [5] Core Viewpoints - The focus is on investment opportunities in the stable and high-dividend electro-aluminum sector [2][9] - Short-term demand concerns are alleviated, with a greater emphasis on supply-side logic for mid-term investments [8][13] - Long-term stable and low-cost electricity supply is a critical constraint for the electro-aluminum industry [14] - The supply-demand balance is expected to ensure stable profitability and dividends, making the electro-aluminum sector a true dividend asset [14] Summary by Sections Electro-Aluminum Sector - Concerns about downstream demand affecting short-term profitability are noted, but the report argues that short-term demand is not a worry [8][13] - Inventory levels in the electro-aluminum sector are decreasing, indicating a healthy supply-demand balance [8][13] - The report emphasizes the importance of stable, low-cost electricity supply as a hard constraint for the electro-aluminum industry [14] - Future profitability is expected to be stable, with major companies potentially achieving a dividend yield close to 6% [14] Steel Sector - The steel industry is entering a demand lull, with a focus on monitoring production reduction policies [15] - Rebar production has increased significantly, with a slight rise in consumption [15][16] - Total steel inventory has seen a slight increase week-on-week but a significant decrease year-on-year [22] - Steel prices have shown a slight decline, with the overall price index down by 0.49% [35][36] New Energy Metals - Lithium production in May 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase of 31.37% [39] - The production of new energy vehicles in China has also risen sharply, with a 33.02% increase in production [43] - Prices for lithium and nickel have shown an upward trend, indicating a robust market [48][49]

Group 1: Environmental Initiatives in Xining - Xining has made significant progress in ecological improvement, with forest coverage in the core area of the South-North Mountain Greening Project increasing from 7.2% to 79% since 1989, enhancing carbon sequestration [1] - As a second batch national carbon peak pilot city, Xining is implementing actions targeting major emission sources and promoting green transformations in urban construction, industry, and energy sectors [1] - The city has achieved a 100% resource utilization rate for municipal solid waste, effectively realizing waste reduction, resource recovery, and harmless treatment [3] Group 2: Waste Management and Recycling - Sheneng Huangshui Company specializes in waste incineration power generation, processing approximately 400 trucks of municipal waste daily, converting 1 ton of waste into 500 kWh of electricity [2] - The company employs advanced technologies for waste treatment, ensuring emissions meet standards while generating energy for sale [2] - Xining has closed or ecologically capped all 15 municipal waste landfills, becoming the first city in the Tibetan Plateau to achieve zero landfill for raw waste [3] Group 3: Aluminum Industry Transformation - China's electrolytic aluminum production accounts for half of the global output, with significant carbon emissions associated with traditional production methods [4] - Xining's Ganhua Industrial Park is recognized as a core production base for green electricity aluminum, with companies like Huanghe Xinye focusing on low-carbon transformation and green energy utilization [5][6] - By 2027, Xining aims for a 90% conversion rate of primary electrolytic aluminum products and a 75% share of clean energy in aluminum production [7]

电解铝观点更新 20250702 摘要 2025 年上半年国内原铝表观需求同比增长 4.5%，虽低于去年同期，但 仍超预期，主要受益于流水转化率提升、光伏抢装和抢出口共振，以及 废料供应紧张。 光伏产业对电解铝需求影响复杂，上半年光伏抢装增加原铝需求，但全 年来看，光伏组件对原铝需求同比减少 30 万吨，拖累铝需求增速约 0.7 个百分点。 新能源汽车行业表现强劲，预计全年销量同比增长 30%，汽车用铝增量 同比增加 54 万吨，贡献原铝消费增速约 1.2 个百分点，与去年基本持 平。 受出口退税和关税影响，1-5 月份微断达的铝及其制品累计出口量同比 下降 4.4%，但降幅收窄，全年出口量预计增加 10 万多吨，对全年需求 贡献约 0.5 个百分点。 电力领域投资增长显著，1-5 月新增 220kV 以上线路长度累计同比增长 近 30%，带动铸造业产量同比增长 12%左右，贡献显著。 Q&A 天丰金属公司在过去两年的盈利表现如何？ 天丰金属公司在过去两年中，利润增长速率显著提升，分红比例也有所增加， 整体盈利水平保持稳定。这一扩张周期使得公司表现出色，与港股的中国红桥、 A 股的中葡实业、云铝天山等优秀公司 ...

大宗商品研究所 有色研发报告 有色金属日报 2025 年 7 月 2 日星期三 研究所副所长、有色及贵 金属板块负责人：车红云 期货从业证号：F03088215 投资咨询从业证号：Z0017510 研究员：王伟 期货从业证号：F03143400 投资咨询从业证号：Z0022141 研究员：陈婧 FRM 期货从业证号：F03107034 投资咨询从业证号：Z0018401 研究员：陈寒松 期货从业证号：F03129697 投资咨询从业证号：Z0020351 联系方式： 上海：021-65789219 北京：010-68569781 【市场回顾】 1.期货：今日沪铜 2508 合约收于 80540 元/吨，涨幅 0.65%，沪铜指数增仓 4906 手至 60.10 万手。 2.现货：持货商积极出货，沪铜现货升水直线下降，报升水 120 元/吨，较上一交易日下跌 80 元/吨。广东和天津地区受铜价走高影响，消费受冲击较为明显，持货商不愿低价出 货，分别报升水 85 元/吨，下跌 5 元/吨和报贴水 140 元/吨，下跌 20 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 1. 由于非正式矿工设置的路障，秘鲁矿山的物流运输遭到破坏，这些矿 ...