Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is upgraded to "Overweight" [1] Core Views - The report expresses a long-term positive outlook on the electrolytic aluminum sector, driven by significant price increases and structural supply constraints [3][4] - The demand for electrolytic aluminum is expected to grow due to both traditional and emerging applications, with a notable increase in demand from sectors like new energy vehicles and data centers [5][6] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - Over the past 12 months, the industry has shown strong performance with relative returns of 83.5% and absolute returns of 107.28% [2] Supply Side Analysis - Global electrolytic aluminum production capacity is constrained, with China's capacity at 45 million tons per year, accounting for 55% of global capacity. The overall operating rate remains above 98%, with minimal growth expected [4] - The global supply growth rate is projected at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of only 1.4% from 2025 to 2030, significantly lower than the expected demand growth rate of 2.3% [4] Demand Side Analysis - Traditional applications are stabilizing, while new applications are experiencing rapid growth. For instance, the demand from new energy vehicles is expected to add 330,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum in 2026 [6] - The shift towards aluminum replacing copper in various applications is accelerating, with a projected replacement scale exceeding 700,000 tons by 2025 [6] Cost Analysis - The use of green electricity is improving production economics, with the cost of producing aluminum decreasing by approximately 15% compared to traditional coal power methods [7][8] - The current production cost of electrolytic aluminum in China is about 2,000 yuan lower than the global average, enhancing competitive advantages [7][8] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on investment opportunities within the aluminum sector, highlighting companies such as Nanshan Aluminum, China Aluminum, Yun Aluminum, and Zhongfu Industrial as key players to watch [8]

Group 1 - The year 2026 marks the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," and the market is seeking new directions amidst macroeconomic changes and industry adjustments [1][12] - The focus for investors should be on long-term trends rather than short-term fluctuations, with a series of research and insights being shared across eight fields including macro, fixed income, equity, and technology [1][12][13] Group 2 - In 2025, the keywords for the market were "industry trends" and "risk appetite," with high-growth assets attracting significant capital attention, while dividend strategies appeared to take a backseat [2][14] - The investment rhythm does not depend on temporary shifts in focus, as dividend assets represent a deep value commitment based on companies' cash generation capabilities [2][14] Group 3 - Dividend assets have served as a safe haven in volatile markets, but by 2025, the market's balance shifted towards higher risk appetite, favoring assets with greater expected returns despite increased volatility [3][15] - The selection logic for dividend strategies has become more refined, focusing on stable and improving assets, such as banks and the electrolytic aluminum industry, while reducing exposure to traditional resources in decline [3][15] Group 4 - High dividend yields can be misleading if not sustainable, necessitating a robust evaluation framework to identify genuine dividend-paying companies [4][16] - The evaluation framework consists of three dimensions: industry analysis, company governance, and asset pricing, ensuring that dividends are supported by real cash flow generation [5][17][18] Group 5 - Looking ahead to 2026, the market is expected to be driven by "industry cycles stronger than economic cycles," with artificial intelligence continuing to be a significant growth driver [7][19] - The dual role of dividend assets is highlighted, providing basic returns and defensive attributes for low-risk appetite funds while potentially becoming a stabilizer during market volatility [7][19] Group 6 - Specific industry focuses for 2026 include the banking sector, which may see profit recovery due to improving cost of liabilities, and the electrolytic aluminum industry benefiting from supply-demand balance [8][20] - The thermal power sector is undergoing a transformation, with market reforms enhancing profitability stability, while traditional manufacturing leaders are also being considered for their solid dividend foundations [8][20] Group 7 - The strategy is evolving from a single dividend focus to a "barbell" approach, allowing for flexibility in adapting to market conditions while maintaining a balance between quality, low valuation, and reversal strategies [9][21] - The combination of strategies aims to enhance the risk-return profile of the overall portfolio, ensuring alignment with the complex and changing market environment [9][22]

【天风金属】掘金潜力白马股——南山铝业重点推荐：印尼100万吨电解铝规划落地，高成长+高分红独一档逻辑 260119 事件：1月19日，公司发布公告，拟通过控股子公司南山铝业国际（2610HK）间接全资子公司盛世亚洲与盛世铝 业合资，在印尼设立项目子公司PT，建设年产25万吨电解铝项目（其中盛世亚洲持股99%，盛世铝业持股1%）， 投资金额约4.4亿美元（折合30.6亿人民币），项目建设期2年。 此外，南山铝业 【天风金属】掘金潜力白马股——南山铝业重点推荐：印尼100万吨电解铝规划落地，高成长+高分红独一档逻辑 260119 至此印尼电解铝产能规划清晰：30年之前印尼电解铝产能达100万吨，保守估计27年底投产50万吨（#快的情况今 年年底就会投一部分），其中1）铝业25万吨；2）国际25+50万吨，50万吨具体规划还没出。 铝业持股国际约60%，27年底铝业权益产能25+25*60%=40万吨；远期国际产能75万吨，铝业印尼权益产能 25+75*60%=70万吨，国内权益产能68万吨，铝业权益产能合计138万吨（远期铝业印尼的25万吨也可能会装进国 际）。 2、#盈利影响： 按照2.25w的中性铝价假设， ...

铝的新时代：电解铝重估风鹏正举 20260119 摘要 有色金属价格上涨受多重因素驱动：供给弹性下降带来溢价补偿，全球 电力紧张和 AI 数据中心等新兴需求重塑基础价格，地缘政治风险下安全 逻辑驱动价值重估，尤其铝价受全球绿色转型及 AI 革命进程影响显著。 电解铝市场供需缺口扩大，叠加积极财政和货币政策，铝价有望创新高。 成本端维持低位，利润空间扩大，当前电解铝公司 2026 年平均估值中 枢在 10 倍附近，具备良好上涨弹性。 全球电解铝供应增速放缓，中国产能触顶，欧美受能源约束和投资周期 限制，难以快速增长。预计 2025-2030 年全球工业增速约为 1.4%，中 国未来五年年均增速仅为 0.3%。 欧美地区电解铝产能增长面临电力供应不足和获取电力合同的挑战，碳 中和政策限制高耗能产业投资，电力需求增长和电网老化加剧停电风险， 高电价挤压工业用电。 印尼作为新兴供应区域受制约，中国政策限制新建境外燃煤电厂，项目 进展缓慢，大规模扩张需新建发电厂，涉及资金、成本及周期问题。 Q&A 当前有色金属市场的行情如何？未来走势如何？ 当前有色金属市场的行情延续了 2025 年的强劲表现，预计 2026 年将继续 ...

Group 1 - The market risk appetite has increased since 2025, putting pressure on dividend strategies, prompting funds to reassess their positioning and value in the market style [1] - The investment value of dividend assets has weakened compared to high-prosperity assets like non-ferrous metals and industry trend assets like artificial intelligence [2] - The core driver for dividend assets from 2023 to 2024 is the valuation re-evaluation due to the decline in risk-free interest rates [2] Group 2 - The consensus around dividend assets has strengthened, influenced by both market behavior and regulatory changes, such as new accounting standards [3] - The lower bound of the dividend yield range is gradually opening up, allowing for the inclusion of more value and growth-oriented assets in the dividend category [3] Group 3 - An effective evaluation framework for dividend investments should focus on industry research, corporate governance, and asset pricing [4] - "Pseudo high dividend" stocks typically exhibit characteristics such as passive high dividends driven by falling stock prices and unsustainable dividend payments exceeding net profits [4] Group 4 - The understanding of industry supply dynamics is crucial for assessing high dividend assets, relying on regular tracking through research platforms [5] - In 2026, the A-share market is expected to experience a significant macro turning point, necessitating a refined selection of dividend stocks that can achieve performance elasticity through price increases or sales growth [6] Group 5 - The "barbell strategy" is recommended to enhance portfolio resilience by balancing high-quality dividend assets with growth assets [8] - In 2026, both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks present good allocation value for dividend strategies, with traditional financial sectors showing stable dividend prospects [9] Group 6 - The focus for dividend asset selection should prioritize the sustainability of dividend yields while balancing growth potential [10] - Key sectors of interest include banks, electrolytic aluminum, and thermal power, along with stocks that have a second growth curve [10]

Core Insights - The article discusses the challenges faced by Chinese enterprises in a highly competitive environment characterized by "involution," where companies engage in excessive competition leading to diminished profits and innovation [1][3][4] - It emphasizes the need for businesses to focus on micro-management and understanding the essence of operations to thrive in a new economic normal [1][4] Group 1: Involution and Competition - "Involution" is a significant issue across various industries in China, driven by factors such as globalization setbacks, technological shifts, and deep structural adjustments in the domestic economy [3][4] - The article highlights that many companies are trapped in homogeneous competition, leading to price wars that erode profit margins and stifle innovation [3][4] Group 2: Case Studies and Strategies - The case of Shandong Luhua Group is presented as a model for breaking through involution by focusing on product differentiation rather than price competition, achieving nearly 20 billion yuan in revenue and 2.7 billion yuan in profit in 2023 [6][7] - Luhua's strategy includes maintaining high product quality and respecting upstream suppliers, which fosters a sustainable industry ecosystem [7] Group 3: Policy and Industry Transformation - The Chinese electrolytic aluminum industry serves as an example of successful transformation through government intervention, where a production capacity ceiling was set at 45 million tons, leading to increased profits and a healthier market [9][10] - The article notes that from 2017 to 2024, the industry's total profit is expected to approach 100 billion yuan, demonstrating the effectiveness of macroeconomic regulation [10] Group 4: Mergers and Industry Consolidation - Historical examples from Japan's cement industry illustrate how government-led consolidation can effectively address overcapacity, resulting in a stable market with three major players maintaining reasonable pricing [12][13] - The article discusses how the Chinese cement industry underwent a similar consolidation under the leadership of Song Zhiping, leading to significant profit increases from 20-30 billion yuan to over 150 billion yuan between 2018 and 2021 [13] Group 5: Future Economic Strategies - Song Zhiping proposes five rules for constructing a new economic blue ocean in China, emphasizing the importance of industry self-regulation, consolidation, capacity reduction, pricing strategies, and innovation [15][16][17][18][19] - The article highlights the shift from "engineer dividends" to "scientist dividends," indicating a new era of innovation driven by returning talent and enhanced domestic research capabilities [15] Group 6: Conclusion - The article concludes with the notion that effective management and a focus on value creation are essential for long-term sustainability in the face of increasing global uncertainties [23]

Core Viewpoint - The successful commissioning of the 107.12MW/428.48MWh green hydropower aluminum user-side energy storage project marks a significant step in the transformation of the green energy sector in Guangyuan, aiming to establish it as "China's Green Aluminum Capital" [2] Group 1: Project Overview - The energy storage project is a collaboration between leading companies Penghui Energy and Zhongfu Industrial, with Sichuan Zefeng Power Design Co., Ltd. responsible for the EPC contracting [2] - The project commenced construction on July 30, 2025, and was completed within a hundred days, overcoming challenges such as soft geological conditions and continuous rainfall [2] Group 2: Technical Specifications - The energy storage station has a charging and discharging power of 107.12 MW and a maximum storage capacity of 428.48 MWh, supplying all stored electricity directly to the Sichuan Zhongfu aluminum production system [3] - The project is expected to reduce electricity costs for Sichuan Zhongfu by approximately 140 RMB per ton of electrolytic aluminum, leading to annual savings of over 60 million RMB [3] Group 3: Economic and Environmental Benefits - The energy storage station enhances the operational efficiency and stability of the regional power system, ensuring a balance between electricity supply and demand [3] - It is projected to save approximately 19,700 tons of standard coal and reduce carbon dioxide emissions by about 52,000 tons annually, setting a benchmark for low-carbon transformation in high-energy industries [3] Group 4: Future Plans - Penghui Energy plans to deepen collaboration with enterprises in the Guangyuan aluminum industry, focusing on the construction of a "zero-carbon park" during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [4] - The company aims to invest in projects such as photovoltaic power generation, wind power, charging and swapping stations, energy storage stations, smart microgrids, and green electricity direct connections [4] - The ultimate goal is to establish a regional intelligent microgrid characterized by clean, low-carbon, safe, controllable, flexible, efficient, and friendly interactions, contributing to the national new power system construction [4]

截至发稿，朱运累计任职时间1年62天，现任基金资产总规模16.19亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报 79.03%， 任职期间最差基金回报79.03%。 数据显示，易方达基金旗下1只基金重仓中孚实业。易方达资源行业混合（110025）三季度增持100.85 万股，持有股数883.02万股，占基金净值比例为2.83%，位居第九大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮盈赚取 约432.68万元。 易方达资源行业混合（110025）成立日期2011年8月16日，最新规模16.18亿。今年以来收益9.23%，同 类排名1438/9009；近一年收益79.03%，同类排名557/8164；成立以来收益139%。 易方达资源行业混合（110025）基金经理为朱运。 1月19日，中孚实业涨5.24%，截至发稿，报9.85元/股，成交2.35亿元，换手率0.62%，总市值394.78亿 元。 资料显示，河南中孚实业股份有限公司位于河南省巩义市新华路31号，成立日期1997年1月28日，上市 日期2002年6月26日，公司主营业务涉及煤炭开采、火力发电、电解铝和铝精深加工产品的生产、销售 及技术研发。主营业务收入构成为：有色金属94.76%，电力9 ...

Group 1: Copper Market - The macroeconomic environment shows that the US December CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, aligning with expectations, while core CPI rose by 2.6%, slightly below the expected 2.7% [3][18] - Domestic copper concentrate prices remain at historical lows, maintaining tight supply conditions, which is a strong support factor for the market [4][19] - January's estimated electrolytic copper production is 1.1636 million tons, a 1.2% month-on-month decrease but a 14.7% year-on-year increase due to tight copper concentrate supply [4][19] - The net import of refined copper in November decreased by 58.16% year-on-year to 161,700 tons, while scrap copper imports increased by 5.87% month-on-month to 208,100 tons [4][19] - As of January 16, global visible copper inventories increased by 76,000 tons to 1.037 million tons, with LME and Comex inventories also rising [4][20] - Market sentiment is influenced by precious metals, with copper prices showing strength initially but concerns over domestic policy impacts and seasonal demand weakening consumption [5][20] - The overall market outlook for copper remains bullish with a recommendation to buy on dips, but caution against excessive buying is advised [6][20] Group 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel - January's refined nickel production is expected to increase by 18.5% month-on-month to 37,200 tons, while Chinese nickel pig iron production is projected to decrease by 1% [7][21] - Demand in the new energy sector is weakening, with a decline in the production of ternary precursor materials and a drop in terminal sales of new energy vehicles [7][21] - LME nickel inventories increased by 942 tons to 285,732 tons, indicating a slight build-up in stock [7][21] - Indonesia is adjusting its nickel quotas to support local prices, which may provide some price support in the short term, but overall market sentiment remains weak [7][21] Group 3: Aluminum Market - Alumina futures are experiencing a weak trend, with prices dropping by 3.2% week-on-week, while aluminum and aluminum alloy prices also show declines [8][22] - The operating rate for alumina has increased slightly, while electrolytic aluminum production capacity is expected to rise, indicating a mixed supply outlook [8][22] - Downstream industries are preparing for the upcoming Spring Festival, leading to increased processing rates in some sectors, but overall demand recovery is limited [9][22] - Inventory levels for alumina and aluminum are rising, suggesting a potential oversupply situation in the near term [9][24] Group 4: Silicon and Polysilicon Market - Industrial silicon futures are showing a weak trend, with production decreasing week-on-week, while polysilicon prices are also under pressure [11][25] - The supply of industrial silicon is tightening due to reduced operating rates and closures in some regions, while demand remains subdued [11][25] - Inventory levels for both industrial silicon and polysilicon are increasing, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [11][26] - The market is shifting focus from speculative trading to fundamental analysis, with expectations of limited price recovery in the short term [11][26] Group 5: Lithium Carbonate Market - Weekly lithium carbonate production increased by 70 tons to 22,605 tons, with varying trends in different lithium sources [14][27] - Demand for ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate is declining, with significant drops in both retail and wholesale sales of new energy vehicles [14][27] - Social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 263 tons, but overall market sentiment remains pressured due to weak demand [14][28] - The market is experiencing fluctuations in prices due to funding disturbances, with a recommendation to monitor inventory turnover and demand trends closely [14][28]

近日，记者从兰州市工信局获悉，国家工业和信息化部、发展改革委、市场监管总局联合发布2025年度 重点行业能效"领跑者"企业名单，兰州铝业有限公司与中国铝业股份有限公司连城分公司凭借亮眼的能 效水平和扎实的绿色转型成效，成功入选电解铝行业能效"领跑者"，为兰州市工业绿色高质量发展再添 闪亮名片。 近日，记者从兰州市工信局获悉，国家工业和信息化部、发展改革委、市场监管总局联合发布2025年度 重点行业能效"领跑者"企业名单，兰州铝业有限公司与中国铝业股份有限公司连城分公司凭借亮眼的能 效水平和扎实的绿色转型成效，成功入选电解铝行业能效"领跑者"，为兰州市工业绿色高质量发展再添 闪亮名片。 兰州铝业有限公司与中国铝业股份有限公司连城分公司始终锚定"高端化、智能化、绿色化"发展方向， 在节能降碳赛道上持续发力，走出了一条技术创新与管理升级双轮驱动的绿色发展之路。兰州铝业有限 公司以技术改造为抓手，大力推广"全石墨化阴极+磷生铁浇筑技术"升级改造，累计完成342台新型电解 槽大修改造，同步推进分布式光伏发电、氧化铝输送系统节能改造等项目，构建起能源高效梯级利用体 系。同时积极打造"工业互联网+能效管理"智慧平台，实现能 ...