1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate are "oscillation" for industrial silicon and lithium carbonate, and "wait - and - see" for polysilicon [7][8][73] 2. Report's Core View - Before the holiday, the macro - sentiment weakened, and commodity prices fluctuated greatly. For industrial silicon, the supply in the northwest decreased, and demand entered the off - season, with both supply and demand decreasing and prices expected to oscillate. For polysilicon, the existing contracts have poor liquidity, and investors are advised to be cautious. For lithium carbonate, the pre - holiday restocking is basically completed, and attention should be paid to the battery rush - to - export market from after the holiday to the end of the first quarter [2][7][8][73] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Silicon (SI) 3.1.1 Supply - The national weekly output was 63,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14.05%. The number of open furnaces nationwide was 178, a decrease of 32 compared to the previous week. In January, the output was 375,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.44% and a year - on - year increase of 23.48%. The planned output in February is 273,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 27.12% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.63%. In the main producing areas, Xinjiang's weekly output was 38,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 20.86%, and the number of open furnaces decreased by 29. Yunnan's weekly output was 4,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.67%, and the number of open furnaces decreased by 2 [7] 3.1.2 Demand - For polysilicon, the weekly output was 19,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.05%. The factory inventory was 330,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.51%. The profit per ton was about 6,124 yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 642 yuan/ton. In January, the output was 100,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.73% and a year - on - year increase of 6.78%. The planned output in February is 79,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.93% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.54%. For organic silicon, the DMC weekly output was 41,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.90%. The factory inventory was 39,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.47%. The gross profit per ton was 1,956.25 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 97 yuan/ton. In January, the output was 203,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.85% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.61%. The planned output in February is 171,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.14% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.29% [7] 3.1.3 Inventory - The visible inventory was 506,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.16%, with fluctuations and a year - on - year decrease of 29.00%. The industry inventory was 422,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.76%. Among them, the market inventory was 187,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.06%, and the factory inventory was 235,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.79%. The warehouse receipt inventory was 83,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 26.12%, with inventory accumulation [7] 3.1.4 Cost and Profit - The national average cost per ton was 9,065 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 0.15%. The gross profit per ton was - 47 yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 36 yuan/ton. In the main producing areas, the gross profit decreased. The average gross profit per ton in Xinjiang and Yunnan was 263 yuan/ton and - 460 yuan/ton respectively, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton and 92 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [7] 3.1.5 Investment View and Trading Strategy - The investment view is "oscillation". Considering the high level of visible inventory, the impact of changes in supply and demand is weakened, and prices are expected to oscillate. The trading strategy for the single - side is "oscillation", and attention should be paid to the disturbances of large - scale plant production reduction and resumption and environmental protection policy changes [7] 3.2 Polysilicon (PS) 3.2.1 Supply - The national weekly output was 19,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.05%. In January, the output was 100,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.73% and a year - on - year increase of 6.78%. The planned output in February is 79,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.93% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.54% [8] 3.2.2 Demand - The weekly output of silicon wafers was 10.70 GW, a week - on - week decrease of 1.02%. The gross profit per GW was - 31,587 yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 15,495 yuan. The factory inventory was 28.32 GW, a week - on - week increase of 3.77%. In January, the silicon wafer output was 45.93 GW, a month - on - month increase of 4.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.15%. The planned output in February is 45.31 GW, a month - on - month decrease of 1.35% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.23%. In December 2025, the new installed capacity was 40.18 GW, a year - on - year decrease of 43.30% and a month - on - month increase of 82.47%. The total installed capacity in 2025 was 315.07 GW, a year - on - year increase of 13.67% [8] 3.2.3 Inventory - The factory inventory was 330,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.51%, with fluctuations. The registered warehouse receipts were 25,830 tons, a week - on - week increase of 17.62%, with continuous increase [8] 3.2.4 Cost and Profit - The national average cost per ton was 43,876 yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 0.51%. The gross profit per ton was 6,124 yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 642 yuan [8] 3.2.5 Investment View and Trading Strategy - The investment view is "wait - and - see". The existing contracts have poor liquidity, and investors should pay attention to price fluctuations and liquidity risks and participate with caution. The trading strategy for the single - side is "wait - and - see", and attention should be paid to the disturbances of large - scale plant production reduction and resumption and anti - involution policy changes [8] 3.3 Lithium Carbonate (LC) 3.3.1 Supply - The national weekly output was 20,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.82%. The weekly output of lithium extraction from spodumene was 12,454 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.96%. The weekly output of lithium extraction from lepidolite was 2,922 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.18%. The weekly output of lithium extraction from salt lakes was 3,130 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.34%. In January, the lithium carbonate output was 97,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.31% and a year - on - year increase of 0.00%. The planned output in February is about 81,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.31% and a year - on - year increase of 27.92% [73] 3.3.2 Import - In December, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 24,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.77% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.43%. Among them, the import volume from Chile was 13,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.96% and a year - on - year decrease of 41.74%. In December, Chile's exports of lithium carbonate to China were 8,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 45.07% and a year - on - year decrease of 39.60%. In December, the import volume of lithium concentrate was 628,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.31% and a year - on - year increase of 30.22%. Among them, the import volume from Australia was 309,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 27.18% and a year - on - year increase of 1.89%. The import volume from Zimbabwe was 130,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.15% and a year - on - year increase of 39.50% [73] 3.3.3 Demand - For lithium iron phosphate materials, the weekly output was 97,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.96%. The factory inventory was 95,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.85%. In January, the output was 396,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.81% and a year - on - year increase of 57.00%. The planned output in February is 354,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.74% and a year - on - year increase of 54.94%. For ternary materials, the weekly output was 18,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.89%. The factory inventory was 18,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.40%. In January, the output was 81,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.89% and a year - on - year increase of 48.50%. The planned output in February is about 69,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.58% and a year - on - year increase of 43.45%. In December, the production volume of new energy vehicles was 1.718 million, a month - on - month decrease of 8.60% and a year - on - year increase of 12.29%. The sales volume was 1.71 million, a month - on - month decrease of 6.18% and a year - on - year increase of 7.14%. In December, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 52.26%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.90 pct. In November, the export volume of new energy vehicles was 300,000, a month - on - month increase of 17.19% and a year - on - year increase of 261.45%. In the first quarter, due to the preferential purchase tax for new energy vehicles and the withdrawal of national subsidies, combined with the pre - placement of demand in December, the production and sales of new energy vehicles may decrease month - on - month. In 2025, the total winning bid power/scale for energy storage was 77.69 GW/203.4 GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 89.72%/123.98% [73] 3.3.4 Inventory - The social inventory (including warehouse receipts) was 105,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.88%, with continuous inventory reduction. The inventory of lithium salt factories was 18,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.40%. The inventory of downstream sectors (cathode material factories, battery factories, and traders) was 87,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.55%. Among them, the inventory of cathode material factories was 43,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.53%, and the inventory of battery factories + traders was 43,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9.25%. The warehouse receipt inventory was 33,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11.80% [73] 3.3.5 Cost and Profit - For lithium extraction from purchased ores, the cash production cost of lithium extraction from lepidolite was 140,070 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 8.57%. The production profit was - 1,420 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10,391 yuan/ton. The cash production cost of lithium extraction from spodumene was 138,941 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 11.27%. The production profit was 3,100 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 6,103 yuan/ton. For integrated lithium extraction, the cash production cost of lithium extraction from lepidolite was 63,218 yuan/ton, and the cash production cost of lithium extraction from spodumene was 55,276 yuan/ton [73] 3.3.6 Investment View and Trading Strategy - The investment view is "oscillation". Affected by the weakening of macro - sentiment and the chain reaction of liquidity before the holiday, the price of lithium carbonate fluctuated greatly. In the short term, the pre - holiday stocking demand of downstream enterprises is basically completed, and the pre - holiday market may be dull. Attention should be paid to the battery rush - to - export market from after the holiday to the end of the first quarter. The trading strategy for the single - side is "oscillation", and attention should be paid to the disturbances of ore - end production reduction, environmental protection policy changes, and the disturbances of large - scale power plants [73]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views - Nickel: Affected by pre - holiday capital outflows, the medium - term contradiction still lies in Indonesia [2][4]. - Stainless steel: Frequent maintenance and production cuts in February, with the cost - support center shifting upward [2][4]. - Lithium carbonate: The supply - demand pattern is tight, and attention should be paid to the evolution of macro - sentiment [2][11]. - Industrial silicon: The industry inventory is accumulating, and attention should be paid to this week's commodity sentiment [2][16]. - Polysilicon: The industry cost guidance price has been determined [2][16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 131,840, down 2,590 from T - 1; the stainless steel main contract was 13,670, down 140 from T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 554,444, down 28,080 from T - 1; the stainless steel main contract was 287,657, down 42,500 from T - 1 [4]. - **Macro and industry news**: Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses, China has implemented export license management for some steel products, Indonesia may revise the nickel ore price formula, adjust the nickel ore production target, and there are issues such as corporate illegal land use and port monopoly in the Indonesian nickel industry [4][5][7]. - **Trend intensity**: Nickel trend intensity is 0, stainless steel trend intensity is 0 [10]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of the 2605 contract was 132,920, up 140 from T - 1; the trading volume was 586,706, up 54,982 from T - 1; the open interest was 328,575, down 1,202 from T - 1. The spot - 2605 basis was 1,580, down 9,640 from T - 1 [11]. - **Macro and industry news**: In January 2026, the estimated new - energy wholesale volume of national passenger - car manufacturers was 900,000, a 1% year - on - year increase. Toyota plans to increase global vehicle production by 10% to about 11.3 million in 2028 and increase hybrid vehicle production by about 30% to 6.7 million [12][14]. - **Trend intensity**: Lithium carbonate trend intensity is 0 [14]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental data**: The Si2605 closing price was 8,500 yuan/ton, down 105 from T - 1; the trading volume was 335,419 lots, up 19,855 from T - 1; the open interest was 277,011 lots, up 10,029 from T - 1. The PS2605 closing price was 49,285 yuan/ton, down 265 from T - 1 [16]. - **Macro and industry news**: In 2025, the wind power utilization rate was 94.3%, and the photovoltaic power generation utilization rate was 94.8%. The photovoltaic power generation utilization rates in Gansu, Qinghai, Xinjiang, and Tibet were lower than 90% [16]. - **Trend intensity**: Industrial silicon trend intensity is 0, polysilicon trend intensity is 0 [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Copper**: Next week, domestic downstream industries will gradually enter the holiday period, global high - inventory pressure is evident, and macro - level disturbances still exist. It is expected that the high - volatility situation of copper prices will continue, and it is recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The continuous decline in total futures positions will weaken the impact of the capital side, while the strengthening of the fundamental support may lead to the stop of the decline in futures prices before the Spring Festival [24]. - **Aluminum**: Recently, the fundamental changes in aluminum prices are relatively limited. High prices and the long - holiday factor lead to insufficient support on the demand side. Aluminum prices continue to be driven by macro and capital sentiment. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to macro - level pricing and the fulfillment of post - holiday demand expectations [41]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price's operating center may gradually rise under the stimulation of global resource competition and Indonesian policy disturbances. In the short term, affected by macro - level sentiment and the long - holiday factor, the nickel price has fallen from a high level for adjustment. It is recommended to wait and see before the holiday, and pay close attention to Indonesian policy statements and quota implementation [71]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - This week, the main contract of Shanghai copper operated in the range of (97,920, 105,810), with a total position of 584,000 lots, a decrease of 11.2% from last week. The spot market changed from a discount to a premium of 40. LME copper operated in the range of (12,414.5, 13,526). Overseas funds' enthusiasm for going long has declined recently. It is recommended to wait and see due to supply pressure, weakening downstream demand during the holiday, high inventory, and macro - level disturbances [7]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply Side**: The import TC of copper concentrates continues to decline, but the supply of scrap copper is abundant, and domestic refined copper production remains at a high level. The import window for refined copper is closed, and the import loss has narrowed [7][10][12]. - **Demand Side**: The weekly operating rates of scrap copper rods, refined copper rods, wire and cable, and enameled wire have different changes. With the approach of the Spring Festival, downstream enterprises are gradually entering the holiday, and the demand is expected to weaken [13][14][15]. - **Spot Side**: Domestic inventories have increased by 1.05 to 405,200 tons, and LME + COMEX inventories have increased by 13,497 tons to 713,000 tons [16][18]. Lithium Carbonate 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - This week, the lithium carbonate futures price continued to decline weakly, with the main contract operating in the range of (124,100, 152,820), and the total position decreased by 11.9% to 637,000 lots. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate also declined. It is expected that the supply - side pressure will ease, and the demand will recover, so the futures price may stop falling before the Spring Festival [23][24]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply Side**: The weekly output of lithium carbonate decreased by 3.8% to 20,744 tons, and it is expected to continue to decline. The import loss of lithium carbonate has turned negative and continued to expand [24][27]. - **Demand Side**: The production of cathode materials has decreased, but the production of power cells has increased. The demand for energy storage is still strong, and the production of cathode materials is expected to recover [24]. - **Spot Side**: The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is at a low level, and the spot - futures spread fluctuates greatly. The inventory of lithium carbonate has decreased by 2,019 tons to 105,463 tons [31]. Aluminum 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - This week, the aluminum price fluctuated downward. The main reason was the changes in the macro - market and capital sentiment. The import window is closed, and the inventory has continued to accumulate. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to macro - level and post - holiday demand [37][41]. 3.2 Fundamental Changes - **Bauxite Market**: The supply of domestic and overseas bauxite is abundant, and the ore price is weak. Some domestic alumina plants plan to change to imported ore production lines, and the price of imported ore has declined [42][43]. - **Alumina**: The price of alumina is under pressure, and the industry's operating rate has increased. The overseas price is higher than the domestic index price [45][46]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The cost of the industry has increased, and the profit has decreased. The import window is closed, and the net import in December 2025 has increased. The downstream operating rate has declined, and the inventory of aluminum ingots has increased significantly [53][56][63]. Nickel 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - This week, the nickel price fell from a high level, mainly affected by the macro - market and capital sentiment. The import window is closed. The price of nickel ore has risen, and the price of nickel salt has fallen. It is recommended to wait and see before the holiday and pay attention to Indonesian policies [68][70][71]. 3.2 Fundamental Changes - **Nickel Ore Market**: The prices of Philippine and Indonesian nickel ores have increased significantly. The import volume of nickel ore in December 2025 decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year [72]. - **Nickel Iron Market**: The production of nickel iron in Indonesia and China has decreased. The import volume of nickel iron in December 2025 decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year [80][83]. - **Electrolytic Nickel Market**: The production capacity of electrowon nickel has been rapidly released. The production of electrolytic nickel in January increased month - on - month and year - on - year. The import and export volumes of refined nickel in December 2025 have changed [85][86]. - **Nickel Sulfate Market**: The price of nickel salt has continued to fall. The production of nickel sulfate in January decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. It is expected to decline slightly in February [89][92]. - **Stainless Steel Market**: The inventory of the stainless steel market has continued to increase. The market transaction is light during the Spring Festival, and the terminal procurement has basically ended [94].

Copper - Copper prices showed a weak fluctuation overnight, with domestic refined copper maintaining a narrowing import loss [3][12] - The macroeconomic context includes a decrease in the US JOLTS job openings to 6.542 million, the lowest since September 2020, and the European Central Bank's decision to keep the deposit rate at 2% for the fifth consecutive time [3][12] - LME copper inventory increased by 1,925 tons to 180,575 tons, while Comex inventory rose by 2,036 tons to 532,005 tons [3][12] - The current copper market faces fundamental issues, and prices may experience fluctuations around the Spring Festival, suggesting caution in chasing higher prices [3][12] - However, rigid constraints on copper mines and certainty in future demand imply that any significant drop in prices could attract long-term investment and industrial buying, providing a solid foundation for medium to long-term price increases [3][12] Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel fell by 0.1% to $15,115 per ton, while SHFE nickel dropped by 0.14% to 121,180 yuan per ton [4][13] - LME inventory decreased by 240 tons to 286,074 tons, while SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 2,392 tons to 50,464 tons [4][13] - Nickel ore and nickel pig iron prices are showing strength, indicating concerns over resource supply tightness, with cost support continuing to rise [4][13] - The stainless steel market is experiencing inventory accumulation due to the upcoming Spring Festival, although supply-side repairs are prevalent [4][13] - Market sentiment has weakened, leading to a decline in nickel prices, but strong cost support remains, suggesting potential trading opportunities near cost lines [4][5][13] Alumina & Aluminum - Alumina prices showed a slight increase, with AO2605 closing at 2,822 yuan per ton, up 1.15% [6][14] - SHFE aluminum experienced a weak fluctuation, with AL2603 closing at 23,570 yuan per ton, down 0.23% [6][14] - Recent regional alumina maintenance has led to supply disruptions, causing inventory accumulation as downstream stocking approaches its end [6][14] - The domestic aluminum water ratio is weakening, and high prices are suppressing demand, with downstream buyers reducing or canceling pre-holiday stockpiling [6][14] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices showed a weak fluctuation, with the main contract closing at 8,605 yuan per ton, down 2.77% [7][15] - Polysilicon prices also declined, with the main contract closing at 49,550 yuan per ton, down 1.52% [7][15] - The supply of silicon ore is shrinking as companies enter winter maintenance, while downstream sectors are also undergoing repairs due to the Spring Festival [7][15] - The market sentiment remains pessimistic, with silicon material prices under pressure, and attention is needed on inventory levels and potential production cuts [7][15] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures fell by 10.68% to 132,780 yuan per ton, with battery-grade lithium carbonate prices dropping by 9,000 yuan to 144,000 yuan per ton [8][16] - Weekly production decreased by 825 tons to 20,744 tons, with lithium spodumene production down by 790 tons [8][16] - The market sentiment has turned negative, leading to a significant drop in lithium carbonate prices, and downstream purchasing is expected to cool off after pre-holiday stockpiling [8][16] - The overall market lacks clear bullish drivers, and attention should be paid to trading opportunities following price corrections [8][16]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Stock Index**: In the short - term, the market rotation is accelerating, hot - plate persistence is poor, and trading volume is falling before the Spring Festival. In the long - term, policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. The strategy is to buy on dips [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The economic recovery foundation is not solid, and there is still room for RRR and interest rate cuts. The central bank maintains an attitude of protecting funds, and bond market trading is expected to be stable. However, it is necessary to pay attention to the suppression of the stock market, government bond supply, and inflation expectations, and the market is expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Precious Metals**: The market is in a cautious short - covering and position - rebuilding stage after a technical oversold. It is recommended to wait and see, with the Shanghai gold main contract in the range of 1050 - 1300 yuan/gram and Shanghai silver in the range of 22000 - 25000 yuan/kilogram [11]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Most non - ferrous metals are expected to fluctuate, with some having upward or downward trends based on supply - demand, policy, and cost factors [14][16][21]. - **Black Building Materials**: The black - building materials sector is in a bottom - game stage with multiple factors at play. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it is necessary to track inventory changes, demand recovery, and policy adjustments [34]. - **Energy Chemicals**: Different energy - chemical products have different trends. For example, crude oil is recommended to take profits on rallies, and some products are affected by supply - demand, cost, and geopolitical factors [64][66]. - **Agricultural Products**: Different agricultural products have different trends. For example, the short - term outlook for live pigs is pessimistic, while the long - term outlook for cotton is positive [87][102]. 3. Summary by Category Macro - financial - **Stock Index** - **Market Information**: The President of China had a phone call with the US President; a new satellite testing and launching technology plant was established; the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology aims to break through key technologies; the central bank focuses on credit market work [2]. - **Basis Annualized Ratio**: Different contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH have corresponding basis annualized ratios [3]. - **Strategy**: Buy on dips in the short - term [4]. - **Treasury Bonds** - **Market Information**: Contract prices changed on Wednesday; the central bank held a credit market meeting; the Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 750 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 302.5 billion yuan [6][7]. - **Strategy**: The bond market is expected to fluctuate, and it is necessary to pay attention to multiple factors [8]. - **Precious Metals** - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices rose; the US ADP data indicated a slowdown in the labor market; the US Treasury's refinancing statement affected the bond market [9][10]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see, with reference price ranges for Shanghai gold and silver [11]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper** - **Market Information**: Copper prices fluctuated, LME copper inventory increased, and domestic spot was at a discount [13]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly, with reference price ranges for Shanghai and LME copper [14]. - **Aluminum** - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices declined, and inventory and trading conditions changed [15]. - **Strategy**: If concerns about the US AI narrative ease, prices are expected to stabilize and rise, with reference price ranges [16]. - **Zinc** - **Market Information**: Zinc prices fluctuated, and inventory and basis data changed [17][18]. - **Strategy**: The price is following the sector to make up for the macro - attribute. The trading center may return to the industrial logic [18]. - **Lead** - **Market Information**: Lead prices declined, and inventory and basis data changed [19]. - **Strategy**: The industry situation is weak, and the panic sentiment has eased to some extent [19]. - **Nickel** - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rebounded, and cost and supply - demand factors changed [20]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, with reference price ranges [21]. - **Tin** - **Market Information**: Tin prices fluctuated, and supply, demand, and inventory factors changed [22]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [23]. - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Market Information**: The spot index rose, and the futures contract price declined [24]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see or take a small - position attempt, with a reference price range for the futures contract [25]. - **Alumina** - **Market Information**: The index rose, and inventory and basis data changed [26][27]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference price range and key factors to watch [28]. - **Stainless Steel** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and spot and inventory data changed [29]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a bullish view, with a reference price range [29]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy** - **Market Information**: The price rebounded, and inventory and trading volume data changed [30]. - **Strategy**: The price is supported in the short - term [31]. Black Building Materials - **Steel** - **Market Information**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices rose slightly, and inventory and trading volume data changed [33]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it is necessary to track multiple factors [34]. - **Iron Ore** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and spot and inventory data changed [35]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, and it is necessary to pay attention to steel mill restocking and iron - making rhythms [36][37]. - **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Market Information**: Prices rose, and spot and basis data changed [38]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it is necessary to pay attention to market sentiment and high - volatility risks [40][42]. - **Glass and Soda Ash** - **Glass** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and inventory and trading volume data changed [43]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, with a reference price range [44]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and inventory and trading volume data changed [45]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly and stably in the short - term, with a reference price range [46]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon** - **Market Information**: Prices rose slightly, and spot and basis data changed [47]. - **Strategy**: The market is affected by overall sentiment and cost factors. It is recommended to pay attention to manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [49][50]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon** - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and spot and inventory data changed [51]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is necessary to pay attention to production cuts and downstream adjustments [54]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and spot and inventory data changed [55]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is necessary to pay attention to meetings and spot transactions [56]. Energy Chemicals - **Rubber** - **Market Information**: The price is determined by funds, and there are different views on supply and demand [58]. - **Strategy**: Trade short - term on the disk, set stop - losses, and consider a spread trading strategy [62]. - **Crude Oil** - **Market Information**: Futures prices rose [63]. - **Strategy**: Take profits on rallies and focus on medium - term layout [64]. - **Methanol** - **Market Information**: Spot and futures prices changed [65]. - **Strategy**: The price has priced in most geopolitical premiums, and there is pressure on the upside [66]. - **Urea** - **Market Information**: Spot and futures prices changed [68]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell on rallies due to expected negative fundamentals [69]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene** - **Market Information**: Prices rose, and supply - demand and inventory data changed [70]. - **Strategy**: The non - integrated profit of styrene has been repaired, and it is advisable to take profits gradually [70]. - **PVC** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and supply - demand, cost, and inventory data changed [71]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply is strong and demand is weak. Pay attention to production capacity and start - up changes [72][73]. - **Ethylene Glycol** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and supply - demand, cost, and inventory data changed [74]. - **Strategy**: There is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction in the medium - term, but there is a risk of rebound in the short - term [75]. - **PTA** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and supply - demand, cost, and inventory data changed [76]. - **Strategy**: It enters the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage. Be cautious of processing - fee corrections in the short - term and look for long - entry opportunities after the Spring Festival [77]. - **Para - xylene** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and supply - demand, cost, and inventory data changed [78]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to accumulate inventory before the maintenance season. Look for long - entry opportunities following crude oil in the medium - term [79]. - **Polyethylene (PE)** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and supply - demand and inventory data changed [80]. - **Strategy**: The oil price may have bottomed out. The price is supported by reduced inventory, but the demand is in the off - season [81]. - **Polypropylene (PP)** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and supply - demand and inventory data changed [82]. - **Strategy**: The supply pressure is relieved, and the price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year. Consider going long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [84]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs** - **Market Information**: Pig prices fell, and supply - demand factors changed [86]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies in the short - term, and pay attention to long - term support [87]. - **Eggs** - **Market Information**: Egg prices mostly fell, and supply - demand factors changed [88]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell in the near - term and long - term, with different logics [89]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal** - **Market Information**: Futures prices fell slightly, and supply - demand data changed [90][91]. - **Strategy**: The short - term fundamentals are improving, and the price may be bottoming out [92]. - **Oils and Fats** - **Market Information**: Futures prices fluctuated, and supply - demand data changed [93][94]. - **Strategy**: The price may have bottomed out. Wait for a pull - back to go long [94]. - **Sugar** - **Market Information**: The futures price rebounded slightly, and supply - demand data changed [95][98]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the northern hemisphere to finish the harvest in February. The domestic price may have limited downside, and it is advisable to wait and see [99]. - **Cotton** - **Market Information**: The futures price fluctuated, and supply - demand data changed [100][101]. - **Strategy**: It fluctuates widely in the short - term and may rise in the long - term. Look for low - entry opportunities before the Spring Festival [102].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Bullish" rating to the precious metals and new energy sectors, and "Neutral" or "Wait-and-See" ratings to most other sectors [1] Core Viewpoints - In the context of low interest rates and an "asset shortage", domestic market funds remain abundant, and the stock index is expected to maintain a long-term upward trend despite short-term volatility [1] - The bond market is favored by the "asset shortage" and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks [1] - Metal prices, including copper, aluminum, and nickel, are expected to stabilize and rebound after the release of macro risks, although they are subject to various supply and demand factors and policy uncertainties [1] - Agricultural product prices are affected by factors such as supply and demand, weather, and policy. For example, palm oil is expected to be volatile and bullish, while cotton is in a situation of "support but no driver" [1] - Energy and chemical product prices are influenced by factors like crude oil prices, supply and demand fundamentals, and geopolitical situations. For instance, PTA and ethylene glycol prices have shown different trends due to various factors [1] Summary by Industry Macro Finance - Stock index: Expected to consolidate after a volume-reduced rebound, with a long-term upward trend intact due to abundant funds and economic recovery [1] - Bond futures: Favored by the "asset shortage" and weak economy, but short-term interest rate risks are highlighted [1] Non-Ferrous Metals - Copper: After a significant correction, prices are expected to stabilize and rebound as macro risks are released, with industry fundamentals providing support [1] - Aluminum: Prices dropped due to rising macro risk aversion but are expected to recover as the supply narrative continues and risks are released [1] - Alumina: Supply exceeds demand, and prices are under pressure but are expected to fluctuate around the cost line [1] - Zinc: The cost center is stabilizing, and prices are expected to rebound after a correction due to increased risk aversion [1] - Nickel: Short-term prices are expected to stabilize and rebound, but long-term high global inventories may still exert pressure. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro sentiment [1] - Stainless steel: Futures prices are expected to fluctuate, with support from the raw material end and repeated macro sentiment. Short-term trading is recommended [1] - Tin: Prices rebounded strongly after a mine accident and significant deleveraging, but high short-term volatility requires risk management [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold and silver: Market sentiment is recovering, but strong US PMI data may slow the short-term upward momentum [1] - Platinum and palladium: Short-term support exists due to Trump's plan to establish a key mineral reserve and the EU's consideration of sanctions on Russian platinum exports [1] - Industrial silicon: Northwest production is increasing while southwest production is decreasing, and the production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon declined in December [1] - Polysilicon: In the off-season for new energy vehicles, but storage demand is strong. Prices have risen significantly and may need to correct [1] - Lithium carbonate: Expectations are strong, but the spot market is weak, and the continuation of price increases lacks momentum [1] Black Metals - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Unilateral long positions are advised to exit, and cash-and-carry arbitrage positions can be considered due to factors such as high production and inventory [1] - Iron ore: There is obvious upward pressure, and chasing long positions is not recommended [1] - Coke and coking coal: In the off-season, the focus is on capital sentiment, and opportunities to sell at high prices or establish cash-and-carry arbitrage positions are recommended [1] - Glass and soda ash: Weak current supply and demand are intertwined with strong expectations, and prices are under pressure in the medium term [1] Agricultural Products - Palm oil: Expected to be volatile and bullish as the main consuming countries start purchasing and production areas may reduce production and inventory [1] - Cotton: Currently in a situation of "support but no driver", and future attention should be paid to factors such as policy, planting area, and seasonal demand [1] - Sugar: There is a consensus on short positions due to global oversupply and increased domestic production, but the cost provides support at lower prices [1] - Grains: Before the Spring Festival, the market is expected to correct as pre-holiday stocking ends and funds take profits [1] - Soybeans: Unilateral expectations are for a weakening trend due to factors such as expected rainfall in Argentina and sufficient Brazilian supply [1] - Pulp: It is advisable to wait and see due to supply disturbances and weakening demand after restocking [1] - Logs: The spot price is rising, and the futures price is expected to increase due to a decrease in arrivals and an increase in foreign quotes [1] - Hogs: The spot price is stabilizing, and demand is supported, but production capacity still needs to be further released [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may ease. Prices are expected to correct in the short term [1] - Fuel oil: Follows the trend of crude oil, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient [1] - Asphalt: Profits are high, and the demand for catch-up construction during the 14th Five-Year Plan may be falsified [1] - Shanghai rubber: The raw material cost provides support, but downstream demand weakens before the festival, and the futures-spot price difference has widened [1] - BR rubber: The cost of butadiene provides support, and there is an expectation of increased exports in the long term. Short-term prices are expected to fluctuate widely, with an upward trend in the long term [1] - PTA: The PX market is strong, driving up the prices of chemical products. Domestic PTA production is increasing, and the negative feedback from polyester factory production cuts is limited [1] - Ethylene glycol: Overseas prices have rebounded, and the reduction in Middle East exports has boosted market confidence. Speculative demand has increased [1] - Styrene: The futures price has rebounded due to improved supply and demand fundamentals and reduced inventory pressure [1] - Methanol: Affected by the situation in Iran, imports are expected to decrease, but downstream negative feedback is significant, resulting in a mixed situation [1] - PE: The price has returned to a reasonable range, and demand is weak during the holiday after pre-holiday stocking [1] - PP: Supply pressure is high, downstream improvement is less than expected, and the price has returned to a reasonable range [1] - PVC: Global production is expected to be low in 2026, but the current fundamentals are poor, and there may be a rush to export [1] - LPG: The CP price is rising, and the demand side is short-term bearish, suppressing the upward movement of the futures price [1] Shipping - Container shipping on the European route: Freight rates have peaked and declined before the festival, and airlines are expected to raise prices after the off-season in March [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides a daily morning observation of various futures markets, covering financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals. It analyzes the market conditions, influencing factors, and provides corresponding trading strategies for each sector [5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Financial Derivatives 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - Market performance: On Wednesday, the stock index showed differentiation. The Shanghai Composite 50 Index rose 1.14%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.83%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.15%, and the CSI 1000 Index slightly fell 0.02%. The total market turnover was 2.5 trillion yuan. Stock index futures rebounded across the board [20]. - Core logic: Overnight U.S. technology stocks fell, affecting A - share technology stocks. However, the market remained stable and improved overall, with a style shift occurring. The short - term market is expected to remain oscillating strongly [20]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should be oscillating strongly, buying on dips; for arbitrage, conduct IM/IC long 2609 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage; for options, use a bull spread strategy [21]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bond Futures - Market performance: On Wednesday, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The 30 - year main contract fell 0.23%, the 10 - year main contract fell 0.01%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.04%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.02% [22]. - Core logic: The central bank's net withdrawal of short - term liquidity and the increase in risk appetite have slightly suppressed the bond market. In the short term, the market lacks a clear driver, and the bond market sentiment may become more cautious [22]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should consider buying TF and T contracts on dips; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines [23]. 3.2 Agricultural Products 3.2.1 Protein Meal - Market performance: CBOT soybean index rose 2.39% to 1099.75 cents per bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index rose 2.38% to 300.9 dollars per short ton [25]. - Core logic: The improvement of trade relations has boosted the U.S. soybean market. South American dry weather also provides some support, but overall supply and demand are relatively loose. The domestic soybean meal cost is under pressure, but spot prices may be supported in the short term [26]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should be on the sidelines in the short term; for arbitrage, expand the MRM spread; for options, sell a wide - straddle strategy [26]. 3.2.2 Sugar - Market performance: The previous trading day, the ICE U.S. raw sugar main contract price dropped 1.5% to 14.41 cents per pound, and the London white sugar main contract fell 1.46% to 411.2 dollars per ton [27]. - Core logic: Internationally, the Brazilian sugar influence is declining, and the northern hemisphere is in an increasing production cycle. However, sugar prices have reached a low level, and some institutions' forecasts for the 2026/27 sugar production and consumption are favorable. Domestically, the supply is under pressure, but the international price rebound and improved macro - sentiment may lead to a bottom - oscillating price [30]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should expect international and domestic sugar prices to oscillate at the bottom; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [31]. 3.2.3 Oilseeds and Oils - Market performance: Overnight, the CBOT U.S. soybean oil main price changed by 2.15% to 55.69 cents per pound, and the BMD Malaysian palm oil main price changed by - 0.07% to 4219 ringgit per ton [33]. - Core logic: The market is affected by trade and policy expectations. Malaysian palm oil may reduce production and inventory in January, but the high - base inventory may remain at a relatively high level. The U.S. biodiesel demand is expected to be good, which is beneficial to soybean oil. However, soybean oil supply pressure may shift later. Rapeseed oil may have some support [33]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should expect oils to oscillate widely; for arbitrage, consider shorting the y59 spread at high levels; for options, stay on the sidelines [34]. 3.3 Black Metals 3.3.1 Steel - Market performance: The night - trading session of the black sector was oscillating weakly. On the 4th, the construction steel trading volume was 3.61 million tons, and the trading volume continued to decline approaching the Spring Festival [57]. - Core logic: The demand is marginally weakening, and the steel price follows the raw materials to oscillate. The steel inventory is accumulating, and the winter demand is declining. However, the cost is supported by the steel mill's replenishment demand. The short - term steel price may oscillate strongly following coal [57]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should follow the raw materials to oscillate strongly; for arbitrage, short the coil - coal ratio at high levels and continue to hold the short coil - rebar spread; for options, stay on the sidelines [58]. 3.3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - Market performance: Recently, the coking coal futures have fluctuated greatly due to news of Indonesia's coal policy [60]. - Core logic: The actual impact of Indonesia's coal production reduction policy remains to be seen. The current market is dominated by funds and emotions, and the coking coal valuation is not high. The supply - side events may be repeatedly traded [60]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should be mainly for band trading, and cautious investors should stay on the sidelines. Consider buying on dips after a pull - back; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [61]. 3.3.3 Iron Ore - Market performance: The night - trading iron ore price fell 1.02%. The current macro - sentiment and capital game are significant, and the iron ore valuation is moderately high [63]. - Core logic: The supply is increasing, and the demand may be less than expected in the first half of the year. The domestic iron ore fundamentals are weakening, and the high valuation is difficult to sustain. The iron ore price is expected to run weakly [63]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should expect a weak operation; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [63]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Gold and Silver - Market performance: London gold rose 0.36% to 4964.69 dollars per ounce, and London silver rose 3.44% to 88.13 dollars per ounce. The Shanghai gold main contract fell 0.64% to 1114 yuan per gram, and the Shanghai silver main contract rose 1.03% to 22955 yuan per kilogram [67]. - Core logic: The gold and silver markets first rose and then fell. The weak U.S. ADP employment data initially supported the prices, but then the market was affected by the performance of U.S. technology stocks. In the short term, caution should be exercised, especially during the Spring Festival [68]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should hold long positions in Shanghai gold based on the 20 - day moving average support and hold long positions in Shanghai silver cautiously based on the 30 - day moving average; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, use a bull call spread strategy [70]. 3.4.2 Platinum and Palladium - Market performance: The outer - market platinum and palladium fluctuated widely. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum main contract PT2606 rose 3.54% to 572.95 yuan per gram, and the palladium main contract PD2606 rose 8.62% to 450.55 yuan per gram [70]. - Core logic: The strong U.S. dollar has a negative impact on non - ferrous and precious metals. Platinum is in a tight - balance pattern, and palladium has shifted from a supply - demand gap to a supply surplus. Platinum has a stronger upward drive [70]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should be cautiously bullish on platinum and palladium, buying on dips and paying attention to position management; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [71]. 3.4.3 Copper - Market performance: The main contract of Shanghai copper 2603 closed at 102590, down 2.22%, and LME copper closed at 13040 dollars per ton, down 2.76% [72]. - Core logic: The Sino - U.S. leaders' call and AI - related stock fluctuations have led to a slight decline in copper prices. The downstream replenishment has slowed down the inventory accumulation. The strategic reserve demand and supply disturbances provide long - term support for copper prices [73]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should take a long - on - dips approach, but control the position before the Spring Festival; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [74]. 3.5 Shipping 3.5.1 Container Shipping - Market performance: The spot freight rates of the SCFI European line and SCFIS European line showed a downward trend [108]. - Core logic: The resumption of some shipping routes is offset by geopolitical tensions. The demand is peaking and then declining, and the supply in March is expected to increase. The traditional off - season is approaching, and the freight rate is expected to decline after the Spring Festival [108]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should stay on the sidelines; for arbitrage, take profit on the 6 - 10 positive spread at high levels and then stay on the sidelines, waiting for opportunities to operate on dips [109]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals 3.6.1 Crude Oil - Market performance: WTI crude oil futures rose 3.05% to 65.14 dollars per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures rose 3.2% to 69.46 dollars per barrel [111]. - Core logic: The uncertainty of the U.S. - Iran nuclear negotiation has led to wide - range oscillations in international oil prices. The Brent main contract is expected to oscillate between 66 - 69 dollars [113]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options should all stay on the sidelines [113]. 3.6.2 Asphalt - Market performance: The outer - market WTI and Brent crude oil prices rose, and the asphalt futures showed a small increase. The spot prices in various regions were stable [114]. - Core logic: The geopolitical risk has increased the volatility of asphalt, which follows the crude oil price. There are still concerns about the long - term raw material cost increase and supply gap. The supply is low, and the demand is weakening [115]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should expect high - level oscillations and go long on BU2606 on dips; for arbitrage, pay attention to the long BU - short LU spread; for options, stay on the sidelines [116]. 3.6.3 Fuel Oil - Market performance: The FU03 contract closed at 2800 (+0.86%), and the LU04 contract closed at 3266 (+0.62%) [118]. - Core logic: High - sulfur fuel oil is supported by high - price transactions in the Singapore spot window. Geopolitical factors are the main bullish drivers. The low - sulfur fuel oil supply has increased recently [119]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should expect a strong oscillation and pay attention to geopolitical fluctuations; for arbitrage, hold the FU59 positive spread and pay attention to the LU near - month reverse spread; for options, stay on the sidelines [120].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The nickel market is dominated by macro - sentiment at the margin, with a game between fundamentals and speculative positions [2][5]. - In February, there are frequent maintenance and production cuts in the stainless - steel industry, and the nickel - iron expectation provides a bottom support [2][6]. - The market sentiment for lithium carbonate has warmed up, and the futures market shows a strong performance [2][12]. - For industrial silicon, attention should be paid to market sentiment changes; for polysilicon, attention should be paid to the situation of the Beijing meeting [2][16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless - Steel Fundamental Data - The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 134,830, down 5,180 from T - 1, down 11,280 from T - 5, etc. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 13,585, up 165 from T - 1, down 955 from T - 5, etc [6]. - The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 663,364, down 144,776 from T - 1, up 139,968 from T - 5, etc. The trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract was 377,013, down 247,788 from T - 1, down 102,979 from T - 5, etc [6]. Macro and Industry News - The Indonesian government has suspended issuing new smelting licenses through the OSS platform, targeting projects producing "restricted products" [6]. - China's Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs have decided to implement export license management for some steel products from January 1, 2026 [7]. - The Indonesian government plans to significantly reduce the 2026 nickel ore production target from 379 million tons to 250 million tons [9]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0; the trend intensity of stainless - steel is 0 [11]. Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - The closing price of the 2605 contract was 148,100, up 15,660 from T - 1, down 31,500 from T - 5, etc. The trading volume of the 2605 contract was 619,542, down 24,772 from T - 1, up 237,229 from T - 5, etc [12]. Macro and Industry News - Shanghai will deepen the construction of an international economic center, carry out technological transformation and upgrading in industries such as petrochemical and steel, and support the development of new energy vehicle and other industries [13][14]. - The "250,000 - ton/year electrolyte solvent project" of Lihua Yiweiyuan Chemical Co., Ltd. has been fully put into production [14]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0 [14]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Fundamental Data - The closing price of the Si2605 contract was 8,815 yuan/ton, up 20 from T - 1, down 45 from T - 5, etc. The closing price of the PS2605 contract was 50,000 yuan/ton, up 2,950 from T - 1, down 1,900 from T - 5 [16]. Macro and Industry News - In December 2025, there were 6,233 newly - added on - record new - energy power generation projects (excluding household - use photovoltaics) in China, including 36 wind - power projects, 6,190 photovoltaic projects, and 7 biomass - power generation projects [15][16]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 1; the trend intensity of polysilicon is 1 [18].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall fundamentals of lithium carbonate present a short - term weak and medium - term strong pattern. The market's enthusiasm has cooled under macro and regulatory policies. The supply - demand tension has marginally eased, but there is still a gap. It is expected that the price will fluctuate at the bottom in February. If the inventory accumulation is less than expected and the price drops at a low level, there is a high possibility of a price surge in March [2][3] - The current supply - demand contradiction of lithium carbonate has been somewhat alleviated, but in the medium - to - long term, the upstream ore supply is limited and cannot meet the downstream demand, so the supply - demand tension still exists [92] Group 3: Summary by Directory I. Market Review (1) January Futures Market Trend of Lithium Carbonate - In January 2026, the price of lithium carbonate futures rose sharply and then fluctuated violently at high levels. Influenced by supply contraction, expected demand front - loading, and exchange policy adjustments, the price was strongly pulled up and oscillated. Near the end of the month, affected by capital outflows and the overall weakening of macro commodities, the price dropped significantly [7] - The monthly cumulative trading volume was 13.85 million lots, and the open interest was 720,000 lots. The main contract LC2605 rose 21.9% in January, with an amplitude of 54.8%, setting the largest fluctuation range since the listing of lithium carbonate futures [10][12] (2) January Spot and Basis of Lithium Carbonate - In January, the spot price of lithium carbonate continued to rise. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 160,500 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 157,000 yuan/ton. The price increased by 35% compared with the previous month, and the price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate widened from 3,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 3,500 yuan/ton [13] - The price of lithium hydroxide increased by 48% compared with the previous month, and the price difference between lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide narrowed from 8,200 yuan to 5,000 yuan [16] - The basis of the main contract fluctuated violently. By the end of January, the basis turned positive, rising to 3,200 yuan/ton. The price linkage between the futures and spot markets was strong, and the price difference fluctuated greatly between - 10,000 yuan and 12,000 yuan [19] (3) Price Trends of the Upstream and Downstream of the Lithium Carbonate Industry Chain - In January, the prices of the upstream and downstream of the lithium carbonate industry chain generally rose significantly. The price of Australian SC6 spodumene concentrate was 2,175 US dollars/ton, with a growth rate of 40%. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate decreased by 14% due to market capacity release, dragging down the electrolyte price by 7%. The monthly growth rate of lithium iron phosphate was 24%, and that of ternary materials was 18% [21] II. Upstream Analysis of Lithium Carbonate (1) Lithium Ore Price Trends and Lithium Carbonate Production Profits - In January, the price of Australian SC6 spodumene concentrate rose from 1,510 US dollars/ton in the previous month to 2,175 US dollars/ton, with a growth rate of over 40%. The price of lithium mica (Li2O) concentrate rose from 3,355 yuan/ton to 4,965 yuan/ton, with a monthly growth rate of 48% [24] - The production profit of purchasing spodumene externally was profitable at the end of the month, around 6,700 yuan. The profit of purchasing mica externally fluctuated following the profit of the spodumene end, with the end - month profit around 3,600 yuan [25] (2) Lithium Ore Supply, Demand, and Inventory - In January, as the price of lithium carbonate continued to rise, the lithium ore inventory increased significantly. However, from the inventory link, the inventory of traders increased significantly, while the inventory of lithium salt plants was at a low level. The supply of mica ore was still tight due to the shutdown in Jiangxi [29] - It is expected that the domestic mica ore supply will decrease by at least 60,000 tons. Abroad, the Ngungaju plant's resumption of production will add 11,000 tons of LCE production capacity this year, the CGP3 project of Greenbushes is expected to produce 22,000 tons this year, and the output of Wodgina lithium mine will increase by 5,000 tons [37][38] III. Lithium Carbonate Supply Analysis (1) Lithium Carbonate Production - In January, the lithium carbonate production was 98,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3% and a year - on - year increase of 57%. The production of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 71,400 tons, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 26,500 tons [39] - The main supply of production still came from the spodumene end. The estimated production capacity utilization rate in January was 57%, a decrease of 1 percentage point from the previous month, maintaining at the historical average level [43][45] (2) Lithium Carbonate Import and Export - In December 2025, the import of lithium carbonate was 24,000 tons, and the export was 912 tons, with a net import of 2,310 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,800 tons. Chile and Argentina were still the main import sources, accounting for over 90% of the total import volume. The average import price in December was 10,187 US dollars/ton, a 272 - dollar increase from November [49][53] (3) Lithium Hydroxide Production and Apparent Demand - In January, the lithium hydroxide production was 27,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12% and a year - on - year increase of 28%. In December, the net export of lithium hydroxide was 1,225 tons. If estimated based on December's net export, the apparent demand in January was 26,000 tons, at a relatively high historical level [54] IV. Downstream Demand Analysis of Lithium Carbonate (1) New Energy Vehicle Sales - In December, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 1.71 million, a 7% increase compared with the same period last year. In 2025, the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles was 16.44 million, a 28% year - on - year increase. The cumulative export volume in 2025 was 2.58 million, a 106% year - on - year increase, accounting for 16% of the total sales volume [57][58] - Pure electric vehicles accounted for 65%, and hybrid vehicles accounted for 35%. The penetration rate of new energy vehicle sales continued to rise, currently reaching 52.3%, exceeding that of traditional vehicles [60] (2) Lithium Battery and Cell Production - In January, the lithium battery production of sample enterprises was 194 GWh, of which lithium iron phosphate battery production was 154 GWh, accounting for 79%. The production of ternary batteries was stable, and the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate batteries increased by 71% year - on - year [64] - In January, the monthly production of power cells was 120 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 6% and a year - on - year increase of 36%; the monthly production of energy - storage cells was 89 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 11% and a year - on - year increase of 56%. The cell inventory - to - sales ratio continued to decline, and the inventory was at a low level [67] (3) Cathode Material and Electrolyte Production - Overall, the cathode material production remained at a high level. In January, the lithium iron phosphate production was 397,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7% and a year - on - year increase of 58%. The production of ternary materials in January was 81,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2% and a year - on - year increase of 58% [71] - In December, the electrolyte production was 227,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4% and a year - on - year increase of 42%; the lithium hexafluorophosphate production was 29,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.7% and a year - on - year increase of 45% [76] V. Lithium Carbonate Inventory - Affected by the supply - demand tension of lithium carbonate, the inventory maintained a downward trend, but the inventory days increased slightly due to the production maintenance in January - February and the Spring Festival off - season. By the end of January, the sample social inventory of lithium carbonate was 107,000 tons, a 2,000 - ton decrease from the previous month, and the inventory days were 28.5 days. The smelter inventory was at a historical low level, and the downstream inventory increased slightly but was still at a low level overall [77] - From the perspective of inventory seasonality, July to November is the destocking season, and then the inventory will continue to rise until June. Affected by the Spring Festival, the lithium carbonate inventory may show a cumulative state in February [81][83] - By the end of January, the exchange inventory was 30,000 tons, a 3,000 - ton increase compared with 27,000 tons before the inventory cancellation in November last year. The overall inventory was at a low level [85] VI. Lithium Carbonate Summary and Future Market Forecast - In the short term, lithium carbonate is still in a stage of supply falling short of demand, but the supply - demand tension will ease in February due to the decline in downstream demand during the Spring Festival [88] - In February, the production of lithium carbonate is expected to decrease by about 3% month - on - month. The import volume in January - February is expected to be about 22,000/15,000 tons. The production of lithium hydroxide may drop to about 25,000 tons in February. The total supply will reach 130,000 tons [89] - In February, due to the Spring Festival factor, the downstream production schedule is expected to decrease by about 10 - 15% month - on - month, and it is estimated to resume growth after March. In addition, the significant price drop of lithium carbonate at a high level will continue to effectively boost demand [89] - The current inventory is lower than the historical average level. It is expected that lithium carbonate may accumulate a small amount of inventory in February, but the overall inventory is at a low level. If the inventory accumulation in February is less than expected, the inventory in March may be further tightened [90]

免责声明 碳酸锂产业日报 2026/2/3 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 148,100.00 | +15660.00↑ 前20名净持仓（日，手） | -141,369.00 | +9954.00↑ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约持仓量（日，手） | 355,770.00 | +8072.00↑ 近远月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 900.00 | -3520.00↓ | | | 广期所仓单（日，手/吨） | 33,084.00 | +843.00↑ | | | | 现货市场 | 电池级碳酸锂平均价（日，元/吨） | 153,500.00 | -2000.00↓ 工业级碳酸锂平均价（日，万元/吨） | 150,000.00 | -2000.00↓ | | | Li₂CO₃主力合约基差（日，元/吨） | 5,400.00 | -17660.00↓ | | | | 上游情况 | 锂辉石精矿(6%CIF中国)平均价（日，美元/吨） | 2,020.0 ...