1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Plastic Part - This week's view: In February and March, there are few maintenance plans. As the Spring Festival approaches, demand slows down, and the situation of weak current reality and strong future expectations continues [6]. - Supply: In 2025, the total effective capacity increased by 16%. New capacity will be put into production at a low rate in the first half of the year and a high rate in the second half. Only BASF Zhanjiang has new capacity for the 05 contract, but the existing capacity has increased significantly compared to the same period. The overall PE operating rate is 85.9%, up 0.5%. Some plants had short - term shutdowns this week, and supply increased slightly month - on - month. The maintenance plans in February and March are expected to decline month - on - month. The production of standard products has increased, and the ethylene derivative profit for PE is acceptable, so the operating rate is expected to remain high [6]. - Demand: In the second week before the Spring Festival, the overall downstream operating rate declined rapidly. The film factory maintained a relatively high load, while the demand for greenhouse films basically stopped. The packaging film's phased inventory replenishment has ended, and new orders are limited. The demand from the food and daily - use product sectors has passed its peak, and the operating rate of the injection - molding industry is expected to continue to decline. After downstream enterprises stocked up some finished products, due to the raw material prices not meeting expectations, large - scale inventory replenishment is limited, and the raw material inventory remains at a medium - low level. Attention should be paid to post - festival restocking [6]. - View: Polyolefins have adjusted to a neutral valuation. Expectations regarding the Middle East geopolitical situation and the Two Sessions have not yet materialized. The upstream inventory has been well - reduced before the Spring Festival, and the inventory situation of the industry has improved compared to December. Therefore, a significant decline is not expected. The ethylene performance is weak, and the PE profit is acceptable compared to other derivatives. With limited maintenance plans in February and March, the supply is expected to remain at a relatively high level, so the PE cost - end valuation is moderately high after the repair. The greenhouse film and packaging film industries are entering a seasonal off - season, and although there is an expectation of improvement for mulch films, the pre - festival demand support may be limited. The supply - side pressure will gradually increase at the end of the year. Therefore, from the perspective of the upstream, inventory control is still active, and there is no obvious price - topping behavior. After the mid - and downstream replenished their inventories, the explicit inventory structure is relatively healthy, with a slightly higher mid - stream inventory. Attention should be paid to whether the inventory can continue to be transferred downstream. Before the Spring Festival, the supply may increase while the demand decreases, but the weak - reality pricing is limited, and the market may fluctuate strongly [6]. - Strategy: 1) Unilateral: Wait and see with a fluctuating trend. 2) Inter - period: The willingness to hold inventory is lower than before. Due to the seasonal inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival, the flexibility of the spot price is limited. With the continuation of strong expectations, conduct inter - period reverse arbitrage when the price is high. 3) Inter - variety: Not recommended for now [6]. Polypropylene Part - This week's view: PDH plants have concentrated maintenance in the first quarter, and the C3 cost side provides strong support [101]. - Supply: In 2025, the total effective capacity increased by 12.7%, and the annual output increased by 16.7%. The overall capacity is in excess, and the profit has been compressed to a historical low. In the first quarter, due to the continuous low profit of PDH plants, the planned maintenance has increased, and the supply center has declined to a relatively low level compared to the same period. The weekly operating rate is 73.9%, down 0.8%. Some plants have implemented maintenance, and the operating rate may be difficult to return to a high level, providing marginal support. Recently, PDH plants have made many inquiries about propane for March, and attention should be paid to the resumption time. The domestic demand is weak, and the short - term PP import volume is limited. Fluctuations in freight rates and general overseas demand restrict PP exports. This week, the domestic FOB price increase is greater than that overseas, and the number of signed orders has decreased. The import and export volume is expected to maintain a basic level in the short term [101]. - Demand: The downstream operating rate is differentiated. The terminal提货 rhythm slowed down in the second half of the week, and the finished - product inventory is higher than last year. The demand for plastic weaving has slowed down as the construction and logistics industries gradually enter the holiday. The procurement enthusiasm for BOPP films is good, and they continue to enter the market to purchase annual orders. The order cycle of film factories continues to extend. Although the operating rate has slightly declined this week due to environmental protection and production - line technological transformation. The demand for non - woven fabrics for Spring Festival packaging is increasing, and the operating rate remains stable. Downstream factories such as CPP and daily - use injection - molding are actively reducing their finished - product inventory and shutting down for maintenance. The new round of national subsidy policies and the Spring Festival cleaning have increased the demand for floor cleaners, etc. The demand for home appliances and automobiles is showing an upward trend, especially in the home appliance sector, where sales have increased significantly, which supports the operating rate of the modified PP industry. The injection - molding terminal's willingness to replenish inventory is weak, and as workers return home, the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally [102]. - View: The raw - material side, including crude oil and propane, shows a strong performance, and the propylene spot is also strong. The profits of oil - based, propane - based, and propylene - based processes are compressed, and the coal - based profit is at a low level. The overall weighted profit is compressed. Some PDH supply elasticity has been realized marginally, and the cost is significantly different from that of PE. The plastic - weaving industry is showing marginal weakness, while downstream industries such as BOPP and modified PP have acceptable demand due to the Spring Festival, and the operating rate is temporarily supported. However, other products are gradually entering the off - season, and the off - season demand cannot resonate, and some speculative demand is suppressed. In terms of supply, the maintenance scale in the first quarter is currently high, and the supply center has declined month - on - month. The overall PP inventory has been reduced. The upstream had good pre - sales, and some low - price inventory has been transferred to the mid - stream. However, facing the Spring Festival holiday, the confidence of the mid - and downstream in the future market is average, and the sustainability of procurement is questionable. The first quarter may gradually enter a situation of both supply and demand reduction, and the price may fluctuate [103]. - Strategy: 1) Unilateral: Fluctuate. 2) Inter - period: The PDH maintenance rate is still high, and with both supply and demand decreasing, the inter - period spread may fluctuate. 3) Inter - variety: Short the L - PP spread when it is high [103]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Plastic Part Price & Spread - Basis/Month Spread: The futures price has adjusted, and the spot prices in various regions have declined. The basis has remained stable, and the number of warehouse receipts is at a high level. The 5 - 9 month spread has fluctuated around - 50 this week due to the seasonal weakness of the downstream and the slower inventory replenishment than before, while the strong expectations continue [14]. - PE Outer - Market Price: The CIF price in China has increased by $10 - 20. The cold wave in the United States and the Middle East geopolitical situation have boosted the willingness of overseas holders, and the price is strong. The price comparison between Europe, Southeast Asia, and China has been repaired. The HD film performance is weak, while the LD and injection - molding products are strong [16]. - Import Window: The import window has been compressed. Overseas suppliers are raising prices, and the non - standard products are at a neutral level year - on - year. The LD import profit is at a relatively high level this year. The price comparison between the United States and the Middle East has declined. Although the Iranian supply offers are acceptable this week, the domestic market is cautious, and there is an expectation of a slight decline in imports [23]. - Non - Standard Spread: The HD standard - product price comparison has weakened, while the LD price comparison has remained stable. Some plants have switched back to producing standard products, and the production of standard products has increased [26]. - Upstream Price: Crude oil is strong, naphtha has followed the increase, and the ethylene monomer has weakened. The coal price has rebounded and then remained stable [29]. - Production Profit: The oil - based profit has limited repair, the coal - based profit has slightly improved, the ethane - based profit has been compressed due to the cold wave in the United States, and the profit from purchasing ethylene externally has significantly repaired recently [35]. Supply - New Capacity: From the end of 2024 to the first half of 2025, there was concentrated production of standard products, with the nominal capacity increasing by 19.2% and the effective capacity increasing by 16.7%. Before the 2605 contract, there is limited new capacity. Attention should be paid to the production progress of Huajin and Zhongsha Gulei refineries. BASF Zhanjiang started trial production at the end of December, and attention should be paid to its production ramp - up progress [40]. - Existing Capacity: From the end of 2024 to the first half of 2025, the capacity base has increased, and the total supply has increased significantly. The operating rate is at a neutral level, and the maintenance volume is relatively high compared to the same period, but it will decline later [42]. - Standard - Product Supply: The LLDPE capacity has been concentratedly put into production, and the production ratio has increased from a low level. The maintenance scale in February has declined month - on - month, and the supply has increased [47]. - Maintenance Plan: The maintenance plans for the first quarter have not been fully announced. The maintenance plans in February and March are lower than the same period last year [50]. - Import: The import volume was high in December. In 2025, the Sino - US trade friction intensified, and the reduction mainly came from the United States. The pressure on the United States to clear inventory has eased, and the cold wave has led to a strong local ethylene market. The Middle East geopolitical situation is uncertain, and the import volume may decline month - on - month [56]. Demand & Inventory - Overall Demand: The overall downstream demand is accelerating its decline. The agricultural film operating rate is accelerating its decline, and the profit of mulch films is compressed year - on - year. The packaging film operating rate is higher than the same period last year, but the enthusiasm for raw - material inventory replenishment is limited. The profit of the industry is at a high level, but the number of orders is slightly lower than the same period. The demand for food and tobacco and alcohol during the Spring Festival has been fulfilled, and there may be limited improvement in the future. The construction of northern terminals has declined seasonally, and the pipe - making industry mainly replenishes inventory after the Spring Festival. The raw - material inventory is slightly lower than the same period [71][78][85]. - Inventory: The total supply has continued to increase. The production of standard products has increased with the production ratio. Previously, the mid - stream established positions in the futures and spot markets, and agents placed orders, transferring the inventory to the mid - stream. The standard - product factory inventory has accumulated, the LD and HD factory inventories have been reduced, and the mid - stream inventory reduction has been difficult [64][69]. Polypropylene Part Price & Spread - Basis/Month Spread: The futures price has adjusted. As the inventory replenishment before the Spring Festival is approaching the end, the basis has limited strengthening. The upstream had many pre - sales before, and the selling pressure before the festival is temporarily not large. The mid - stream has established a large amount of inventory, and the number of warehouse receipts remains at a high level. The month spread fluctuates [110]. - PP Outer - Market: The CIF price in China has rebounded. The quotes in north - western Europe have rebounded, and the price comparison in Southeast Asia has strengthened. The import window has been compressed month - on - month, the exchange rate has strengthened, and the profit from exporting to Southeast Asia has limited increase [117]. - Non - Standard Spread: The regional spread of拉丝 has slightly narrowed. In terms of varieties, the spread between拉丝 and low - melt copolymer is the same as the same period last year. This week, the upstream production enterprises'拉丝 production ratio has remained at a relatively low level, and the spread between high - and low - melt products has significantly narrowed [125]. - Upstream Price: Crude oil, naphtha, and propylene are strong. The coal price remains stable [131]. - Production Profit: The overall profit is compressed. The PDH - based valuation remains at a low level, and the coal - based and propylene - based process profits are in the red [138]. Supply - New Capacity: From the end of 2024 to the middle of 2025, there was a large - scale production of new capacity, with the effective capacity increasing by 12.7%. Before the 2605 contract, there is limited new capacity. Attention should be paid to the production progress of Huajin and Zhongsha Gulei refineries [146]. - Existing Capacity: From the end of 2024 to the first half of 2025, the capacity base has increased, and the total supply has increased significantly. The operating rate has recently declined, and the maintenance volume is higher than the same period [147]. - Supply Details: The production of oil - based and PDH - based products is at a high level. The maintenance in the first quarter has increased significantly compared to December, and there is an expectation of supply reduction. Attention should be paid to the implementation [152]. - Maintenance Plan: The subsequent maintenance scale will decline slightly. The monthly maintenance volume in the first quarter is higher than the same period last year [157]. - Import and Export: The domestic production increase is large, the import volume is at a low level year - on - year, and the export volume has increased significantly. However, part of the export comes from the processing of imported materials by southern plants. Recently, the domestic - to - overseas price comparison is weak, and the overseas demand is general. The export volume will maintain a basic level. The export to Southeast Asia and South Asia has increased significantly [163][165]. Demand & Inventory - Overall Demand: The plastic - weaving operating rate is declining and may continue to weaken with the Spring Festival. The packaging operating rate is the same as the same period last year, and the enthusiasm for raw - material inventory replenishment is better than other products. The industry profit is at a high level, and the order cycle continues to increase. The profit of tape master rolls is compressed, and they are actively reducing their finished - product inventory, but it is still higher than the same period. The number of orders has declined seasonally, which may suppress the elasticity of BOPP, etc. The CPP is actively reducing its finished - product inventory, and the raw - material inventory is at a high level. The demand for PP non - woven fabrics is acceptable, and the raw - material inventory has slightly accumulated. The pipe - making operating rate is declining, and the injection - molding operating rate has increased against the season [179][184][190][193][195]. - Inventory: The supply has declined temporarily. The upstream is actively reducing inventory, and the low - price inventory has been transferred to the mid - stream. The oil - based inventory is at a high level year - on - year, and the standard - product explicit factory inventory is at a neutral level [172][174].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information is provided in the report regarding industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Natural Rubber**: Current raw material prices have downside support, and the inventory accumulation rate is starting to converge or is about to reach an inflection point. It is recommended to continue holding long positions [2]. - **Methanol**: The methanol market has weak supply and demand. The inventory in the inland area has decreased slightly, and the port inventory has also decreased slightly. However, the MTO demand is weak, which suppresses the price rebound. The two key variables in the current market are the reduction rhythm of imported methanol due to low Iranian production and geopolitical uncertainties. The price may be volatile in the short - term [6]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The soda ash market has strong supply and weak demand, and there is a possibility of further inventory accumulation in the future. It is expected to be volatile in the short - term, with a reference range of 1150 - 1250 yuan/ton. The glass market has high inventory, which restricts the upward space. It is recommended to pay attention to the performance of glass at 1000 yuan/ton and consider short - selling with a light position [8]. - **Polyolefins**: The spot price of polyolefins changes little, and the market is mainly for hedging purchases. The basis weakens. The static fundamentals show a decrease in both supply and demand and a slight accumulation of inventory. The upstream inventory is low and has a strong willingness to hold prices. In the short - term, the price increase space and sustainability are expected to be restricted [10]. - **Urea**: The urea supply is sufficient, and the daily output has further increased to 210,000 tons. The inventory reduction rhythm has slowed down. The industrial demand is decreasing, and the agricultural fertilizer preparation is in progress. The overall trading atmosphere is weak. The short - term price increase is mainly a hedging reaction, and the upward space may be limited. The main contract of urea should focus on the 1760 - 1820 yuan/ton range [11]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda market has an imbalance between supply and demand, with high inventory and weak demand. The cost provides some support, and the market may be in a volatile adjustment in the short - term. The PVC market has a weak fundamental situation. The inventory is increasing, and the cost support varies. The short - term price is expected to be easy to rise but difficult to fall, and the main contract should focus on the 4900 - 5300 yuan/ton range [13]. - **Crude Oil**: The uncertainty of the US - Iran negotiation is still large. In the short - term, the oil price is boosted by geopolitical fluctuations, but the weak supply - demand expectation of crude oil still suppresses the increase. The short - term Brent crude oil may operate in the range of 63 - 70 US dollars/barrel [14]. - **LPG**: The LPG price has increased slightly. The inventory of LPG refineries has increased slightly, while the port inventory has decreased. The upstream refinery operating rate has increased, and the downstream PDH operating rate has decreased. The short - term market trend needs to be further observed [17]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The supply - demand situation of pure benzene is gradually improving, but due to the import pressure and high port inventory, its own driving force is limited, and the price may follow the oil price and downstream styrene. The styrene industry profit is good, but the supply - demand is expected to be loose in February. The rebound space is limited under the high - valuation and weak supply - demand expectation [19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber - **Price and Basis**: On February 4, the price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai increased by 200 yuan/ton to 16,100 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.26%. The basis of whole - latex decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 285 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 1.79% [2]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the production of natural rubber in Thailand, Indonesia, and India increased, while that in China decreased. The weekly operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires changed slightly. The domestic tire production and export volume increased in December, and the import volume of natural rubber also increased significantly [2]. - **Inventory**: The bonded area inventory in Qingdao increased by 7,185 tons to 591,689 tons, with a growth rate of 1.23%. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 174 tons to 53,625 tons, with a decline rate of 3.10% [2]. Methanol - **Price and Spread**: On February 4, the closing price of MA2605 increased by 32 yuan/ton to 2,279 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.42%. The MA59 spread decreased by 4 yuan/ton to - 36 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 12.50% [6]. - **Inventory**: The methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 55,800 tons to 368,900 tons, with a decline rate of 13.14%. The methanol port inventory decreased by 61,000 tons to 1.411 million tons, with a decline rate of 4.14% [6]. - **Operating Rate**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate increased by 0.15 percentage points to 77.56%, and the upstream overseas enterprise operating rate decreased by 8.67 percentage points to 52.2% [6]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Spread**: On February 2, the price of glass and soda ash in different regions remained stable. The glass 2605 contract increased by 37 yuan/ton to 1,109 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 3.45%. The soda ash 2605 contract increased by 28 yuan/ton to 1,229 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 2.33% [8]. - **Supply**: The soda ash production rate decreased by 2.58 percentage points to 84.19%, and the weekly production increased by 11,000 tons to 783,100 tons, with a growth rate of 1.48%. The daily melting volume of float glass decreased slightly, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass decreased by 250 tons to 86,960 tons, with a decline rate of 0.29% [8]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 652,000 weight boxes to 52.564 million weight boxes, with a decline rate of 1.22%. The soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased by 23,000 tons to 1.5442 million tons, with a growth rate of 1.51% [8]. Polyolefins - **Price and Spread**: On February 4, the closing price of L2605 increased by 53 yuan/ton to 6,918 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 0.77%. The L59 spread decreased by 6 yuan/ton to - 57 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 11.76% [10]. - **Inventory**: The PE enterprise inventory increased by 56,700 tons to 379,700 tons, with a growth rate of 17.55%. The PP enterprise inventory decreased by 32,000 tons to 432,900 tons, with a decline rate of 7.39% [10]. - **Operating Rate**: The PE device operating rate decreased by 3.08 percentage points to 81.59%, and the PP device operating rate increased by 0.40 percentage points to 76.02% [10]. Urea - **Price and Spread**: On February 4, the urea futures fluctuated and rose. The 01 - 05 contract spread decreased by 2 yuan/ton to - 42 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 5.00% [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic urea daily production increased by 8,700 tons to 211,100 tons, with a growth rate of 4.28%. The inventory in the factory decreased by 26,400 tons to 918,500 tons, with a decline rate of 2.79% [11]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Price and Spread**: On February 4, the price of PVC in East China increased. The V2605 contract increased by 84 yuan/ton to 5,155 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.7%. The V2605 - V2609 spread increased by 13 yuan/ton to - 99 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 11.6% [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 0.6 percentage points to 91.4%, and the PVC total operating rate decreased by 0.9 percentage points to 77.1% [13]. - **Inventory**: The PVC upstream factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 18,000 tons to 290,000 tons, with a decline rate of 5.8%. The PVC total social inventory increased by 8,000 tons to 585,000 tons, with a growth rate of 1.4% [13]. Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: On February 4, Brent crude oil increased by 2.13 US dollars/barrel to 69.46 US dollars/barrel, with a growth rate of 3.16%. The Brent - WTI spread increased by 0.20 US dollars/barrel to 4.32 US dollars/barrel, with a growth rate of 4.85% [14]. - **Fundamentals**: Affected by the uncertainty of the US - Iran negotiation and the US cold wave, the US crude oil production decreased significantly, and the inventory of crude oil and oil products decreased more than expected, but the gasoline inventory increased [14]. LPG - **Price and Spread**: On February 4, the main PG2603 contract increased by 57 yuan/ton to 4,251 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.36%. The PG03 - 04 spread decreased by 12 yuan/ton to - 265 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 4.74% [17]. - **Inventory**: The LPG refinery storage capacity ratio increased by 0.2 percentage points to 24.6%, and the LPG port inventory decreased by 121,000 tons to 1.88 million tons, with a decline rate of 6.05% [17]. - **Operating Rate**: The upstream main - refinery operating rate increased by 1.24 percentage points to 80.02%, and the downstream PDH operating rate decreased by 1.53 percentage points to 60.7% [17]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Price and Spread**: On February 4, the Brent crude oil price increased by 2.13 US dollars/barrel to 69.46 US dollars/barrel, with a growth rate of 3.2%. The EB - BZ spot spread increased by 40 yuan/ton to 1,780 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 2.3% [19]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 9,000 tons to 296,000 tons, with a decline rate of 3.0%. The styrene inventory in Jiangsu ports increased by 8,000 tons to 108,600 tons, with a growth rate of 8.0% [19]. - **Operating Rate**: The Asian pure benzene operating rate increased by 0.6 percentage points to 77.6%, and the styrene operating rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 69.3% [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All varieties in the report are rated as "volatile" [1][2][4][5][6] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical tensions and inventory data impact prices, with cold - induced production decline providing support, but investors are advised to participate with light positions due to variable geopolitical factors [1] - **Fuel Oil**: Supply is abundant, demand for marine fuel oil is expected to increase before the Spring Festival, and prices are affected by geopolitical and cost factors, with follow - up pressure [2] - **Asphalt**: In February, northern refineries have low production and inventory, while southern refineries' inventory rises during the Spring Festival. Prices are affected by crude oil and raw material imports [2] - **Polyester**: Macro - environment cools, crude oil prices fall, and polyester raw materials are expected to fluctuate with costs, with a first - quarter inventory build - up expected [4] - **Rubber**: The macro - environment cools, and the rubber market has a supply - increase and demand - weakness situation, with prices expected to decline and fluctuate [4] - **Methanol**: Supply may decrease in February, demand from MTO devices may decline, and prices are expected to fluctuate in a wide range at a low level [5] - **Polyolefins**: Supply may increase slightly, inventory will increase passively during the holiday, and prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [5] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: Supply is high, demand from the real - estate downstream is weak, but there is an expected supply reduction due to environmental policies, and prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [6] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, WTI 3 - month contract rose 1.07 dollars to 63.21 dollars/barrel (1.72% increase), Brent 4 - month contract rose 1.03 dollars to 67.33 dollars/barrel (1.55% increase), and SC2603 rose 8 yuan/barrel to 457.8 yuan/barrel (1.78% increase). Geopolitical tensions and API data on inventory changes are key factors [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, FU2603 fell 3.81% to 22701 yuan/ton, LU2604 fell 2.28% to 3168 yuan/ton. Supply is abundant, and demand for marine fuel oil is expected to increase before the Spring Festival [2] - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, BU2603 fell 1.72% to 3309 yuan/ton. In February, northern refineries have low production and inventory, while southern refineries' inventory rises during the Spring Festival [2] - **Polyester**: TA605 rose 1.14% to 5150 yuan/ton, EG2605 was flat at 3767 yuan/ton. A 500,000 - ton/year MEG device in South China restarted, and there are inventory build - up expectations in the first quarter [4] - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, RU2605 rose 200 yuan/ton to 16180 yuan/ton, NR rose 170 yuan/ton to 13095 yuan/ton, BR rose 285 yuan/ton to 13185 yuan/ton. The macro - environment cools, and supply exceeds demand [4] - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, Taicang spot price was 2225 yuan/ton. Supply may decrease in February, and demand from MTO devices may decline [5] - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, East China's PP prices were between 6550 - 6750 yuan/ton. Supply may increase slightly, and inventory will increase during the holiday [5] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Tuesday, PVC market prices in East China were stable with a slight increase. Supply is high, demand from the real - estate downstream is weak, but there is an expected supply reduction due to environmental policies [6] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The table shows the basis data of various energy - chemical products on February 4, 2026, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes [7] 3.3 Market News - Trump said on February 2 that the US and India reached a trade deal, with India potentially stopping buying Russian oil and the US reducing tariffs on Indian goods. API data showed that last week, US crude and distillate inventories decreased sharply, while gasoline inventory increased significantly [9] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The section presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2022 to 2026 [11][13][15][17][19][22][24][26] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The section shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2022 to 2026 [28][31][35][36][38][39] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The section presents the spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical products [41][43][46][49][51][53][55] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: The section shows the spread and ratio charts between different energy - chemical products [57][59][61][65] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The section presents the production profit and processing fee charts of various energy - chemical products [67][69] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy - chemical research team, including the deputy director of the research institute, the research director, and several analysts, along with their professional backgrounds and honors [72][73][74][75]

Group 1 - The chemical sector is gaining market attention due to the logic of "cyclical bottoming and expectation reversal," alongside rising raw material costs driven by North American cold waves and geopolitical conflicts, leading to an increase in polyolefin futures prices [2] Group 2 - Recent trends show a significant divergence in the price movements of upstream propylene and ethylene monomers, with propylene prices remaining strong while ethylene prices are declining despite rising prices of upstream and downstream products [3] - The current operating rate for polyethylene (PE) is 85.35%, an increase of 0.68 percentage points from the previous week, as facilities like Shanghai Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical restart operations [3] - Ethylene prices are weakening due to increased spot supply from new domestic capacities and weak downstream demand, while the profitability of PE in the ethylene downstream chain is recovering significantly [3] - The current operating rate for polypropylene (PP) is 74.78%, a decrease of 1.25 percentage points from the previous week, as several facilities are temporarily shut down, impacting PP capacity utilization [3] Group 3 - Upstream inventory of polyolefins is decreasing rapidly, with total PP inventory dropping to 648,300 tons, a decrease of 31,900 tons week-on-week, and total PE inventory falling to 802,600 tons, a decrease of 9,800 tons week-on-week [4] - The pace of PE inventory reduction has slowed, primarily due to the coal chemical sector shifting from inventory reduction to accumulation, alleviating previous low inventory pressures [4] - Overall, upstream inventory pressure for polyolefins is low, but there is relatively high inventory pressure in the intermediate circulation segment, especially for standard products [4] Group 4 - The downstream demand for polyolefins is entering a traditional off-season, with limited stocking willingness from terminal factories as the Spring Festival approaches, leading to weak speculative stocking sentiment [5] - The average operating rate for PP downstream industries has decreased to 52.08%, a decline of 0.79 percentage points, with only BOPP and CPP showing slight increases [5] - The average operating rate for PE downstream is 37.76%, a decrease of 1.77 percentage points, with most sectors experiencing a decline, particularly in the packaging film industry [5] Group 5 - The current market structure for polyolefins shows "low upstream inventory and high intermediate inventory," with significant divergence in supply trends between PP and PE [6] - PP is constrained by high propylene and propane prices, limiting the release of marginal capacities, while PE is seeing accelerated recovery in operating rates due to acceptable profitability in the supply chain [6] - Although supply is gradually increasing, it will exert pressure on the mid-term trend of polyolefins, but strong cost support is expected to maintain a bullish price trend in the short term [6]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: February 4, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Quotes - Futures Market Quotes: Plastic 2701 opened at 6954 yuan/ton, closed at 6912 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan/ton (-0.97%); Plastic 2605 opened at 6890 yuan/ton, closed at 6865 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton (-1.15%); Plastic 2609 opened at 6931 yuan/ton, closed at 6916 yuan/ton, down 67 yuan/ton (-0.96%); PP2701 opened at 6668 yuan/ton, closed at 6706 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton (-0.33%); PP2605 opened at 6728 yuan/ton, closed at 6730 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan/ton (-0.65%); PP2609 opened at 6746 yuan/ton, closed at 6757 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan/ton (-0.63%) [5] Group 3: Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: L2605 opened lower, traded at a low level during the session, and closed down at 6865 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton (-1.15%), with a trading volume of 540,000 lots and an increase in positions of 15,259 lots to 511,685 lots; PP2605 closed at 6730 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan, a decline of 0.65%, with an increase in positions of 229 lots to 509,900 lots [6] - Market Drivers: Polyolefin prices are highly correlated with crude oil. As crude oil gives back geopolitical risk premiums, the driving force of the polyolefin market may gradually shift from cost support to the weak industrial reality. With downstream industries entering the holiday season and procurement weakening, the internal driving force of polyolefins remains weak [6] - Strategy Suggestions: In the short term, pay attention to the pulse market that may be brought by uncertain factors such as the Middle East situation, and take the opportunity of rising oil prices to short; during the price decline, focus on the structural arbitrage opportunities arising from the differentiation of supply pressure between PP and PE [6] Group 4: Industry News - Inventory: On February 3, 2026, the inventory level of major producers was 505,000 tons, a decrease of 95,000 tons from the previous working day, a decline of 15.83%. The inventory before the Spring Festival last year was 470,000 tons [7] - PE Market: The PE market price declined weakly. The LLDPE price in North China was 6,630 - 6,950 yuan/ton, in East China was 6,830 - 7,200 yuan/ton, and in South China was 6,900 - 7,250 yuan/ton [7] - Propylene Market: The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily referred to as 6,390 - 6,450 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton from the previous working day. As the Spring Festival approaches, some downstream factories enter the market to purchase, the demand for propylene improves temporarily, the actual order auction premium of production enterprises is common, and the overall trading atmosphere improves slightly [7] - PP Market: The PP market price continued to decline. The mainstream price of drawing materials in North China was 6,520 - 6,630 yuan/ton, in East China was 6,540 - 6,700 yuan/ton, and in South China was 6,650 - 6,800 yuan/ton [7] Group 5: Data Overview - Figures: The report includes figures such as L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase or decrease rate [9][12][17] - Data Sources: The data sources include Wind and Zhuochuang Information, as well as the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][12][14][15][16][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of various energy and chemical products generally declined on Monday due to factors such as geopolitical events and cost - side impacts. Most products are expected to be in an oscillatory state. For example, crude oil prices dropped significantly due to the potential nuclear negotiations between Iran and the US and the decision of OPEC+ to maintain production. Other products like fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, etc., were also affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and cost fluctuations [1][2][4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, WTI 3 - month contract closed down $3.07 to $62.14 per barrel, a 4.71% decline; Brent new 4 - month contract closed down $3.02 to $66.3 per barrel, a 4.36% decline; SC2603 closed at 450 yuan/barrel, down 22.7 yuan/barrel, a 4.8% decline. Iran may hold high - level talks with the US in the coming days. OPEC+ decided to maintain March crude oil production. Brazil's 2025 oil production reached a record 3.77 million barrels per day, up 12.3% from the previous year. The price is expected to oscillate [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the main contract of fuel oil (FU2603) fell 7.01% to 2,679 yuan/ton; the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2604) fell 5.92% to 3,128 yuan/ton. The supply of both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be sufficient. The demand for marine fuel oil is expected to increase before the Spring Festival. The price is expected to oscillate [2] - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the main contract of asphalt (BU2603) fell 4.879% to 3,299 yuan/ton. In the first half of February, the inventory in the north is at a low level, while in the south, the inventory is expected to rise during the Spring Festival. The price is expected to oscillate [2] - **Polyester**: TA605 closed at 5,092 yuan/ton, down 3.38%; EG2605 closed at 3,767 yuan/ton, down 3.73%. Some PTA and polyester devices have changes in operation. The price of polyester raw materials is expected to oscillate following the cost [4] - **Rubber**: On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai rubber (RU2605) fell 380 yuan/ton to 15,980 yuan/ton. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased. The price is expected to be weakly oscillatory [4][6] - **Methanol**: On Monday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,230 yuan/ton. The domestic production in February is expected to decrease slightly, and the import volume will decline from a high level. The demand from MTO devices is expected to decline. The price is expected to maintain a low - level wide - range oscillation [6] - **Polyolefin**: The price of polyolefin products shows a loss in profit. The supply in February is expected to increase slightly, and the demand will enter a holiday period, with inventory passively increasing. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6][8] - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The market price of PVC in East, North, and South China increased. The supply in February will remain high, and the demand is expected to weaken. The price is expected to maintain a bottom - level oscillation [8] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes for various energy and chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. on February 2, 2026, compared with January 30 [9] 3.3 Market News - Iran and the US will restart nuclear negotiations on Friday. OPEC+ decided to maintain March crude oil production. A preliminary survey shows that US crude oil and distillate inventories are expected to decline last week, while futures inventories may increase [11] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Price**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [13][15][17] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [30][32][36] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spread**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [43][45][48] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spread**: It presents the spread and ratio charts between different varieties, such as crude oil internal - external spread, fuel oil high - low sulfur spread, etc. [59][61][63] - **4.5 Production Profit**: The report shows the production profit charts of products like LLDPE, PP, PTA, etc. [68][70] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team members include the deputy director of the research institute, the energy - chemical research director, and analysts for different product categories, each with rich experience and professional titles [73][74][75]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair has triggered a significant game between macro - policy expectation reconstruction and industrial fundamentals in the domestic energy - chemical commodity futures market. Warsh's "tight liquidity + low - interest - rate" policy combination has broken the traditional impact logic of monetary policy on commodities, leading to an "upstream pressured, downstream differentiated" market structure [4][5][40]. - In the short term, the market will focus on Warsh's policy implementation rhythm, the trend of the US dollar index, and geopolitical dynamics, with intensified volatility. In the long - term, energy - chemical prices will return to industrial fundamentals, and domestic demand recovery, industrial structure upgrading, and cost advantages will be the core factors determining the trends of each sector [5][40]. Group 3: Summaries of Each Chapter Chapter 1: Domestic Energy - Chemical Sector Experiences a Collective Decline - On February 2, 2026, affected by the cooling of Middle - East geopolitical risks and the nomination of Kevin Warsh, the domestic energy - chemical sector declined collectively. The crude oil futures 2603 contract dropped 7.02% to 449 yuan/barrel, the fuel oil futures 2605 contract fell 6.51% to 2669 yuan/ton, the asphalt futures 2603 contract decreased 4.87% to 3299 yuan/ton, and the methanol futures 2605 contract declined 3.92% to 2252 yuan/ton. The rubber futures sector generally fell 3.5% - 5%, the polyester industry chain sector averaged a 5% decline, and the polyolefin sector averaged a 2.5% decline [10]. Chapter 2: Kevin Warsh's Policy Proposals and Transmission Mechanisms - Warsh's policy stance is a mix of "hawkish and dovish". He advocates active balance - sheet reduction to shrink excess liquidity and supports Trump's call for interest - rate cuts, creating a "tight financial liquidity + loose real - economy financing environment" combination. This makes the traditional "interest - rate cut = easing" logic ineffective, and the commodity market faces a dual game of "US - dollar strengthening suppression" and "economic recovery support" [23]. - The impact of Warsh's nomination on domestic energy - chemical futures is transmitted through three paths: the US - dollar exchange - rate channel (the expected balance - sheet reduction pushes up the US - dollar index, pressuring the prices of international crude oil and other basic energy sources), the capital - flow channel (tightening financial - market liquidity leads to speculative - capital withdrawal and concentrated closing of high - leverage positions), and the demand - expectation channel (the expected economic recovery from interest - rate cuts and the global demand suppression from balance - sheet reduction offset each other) [25]. Chapter 3: Oil - Chemical Futures Sector: Full - Chain Pressure under Crude Oil Dominance - The oil - chemical sector is directly affected by international crude oil price fluctuations. Under the dual impact of the strengthening of the US dollar and the cooling of geopolitical risks, it shows a "full - chain pressured" weak market. The crude oil and fuel oil futures hit the daily limit down, while the asphalt futures are relatively resistant to decline [26]. - The expected balance - sheet reduction by Warsh pushes up the US - dollar index, increasing the procurement cost for non - US - currency buyers of crude oil and suppressing global demand. The cooling of geopolitical risks leads to a rapid return of the previously accumulated geopolitical premium. The global crude oil market has a loose supply - demand fundamental, with an expected daily surplus of 385,000 barrels in 2026 and a 0.3 - percentage - point reduction in the global crude oil demand growth rate forecast [26]. - The fuel oil futures are closely linked to crude oil. The sharp decline in crude oil prices leads to a collapse in the cost side, and the weak demand in the shipping market further suppresses prices. The asphalt futures are relatively resistant due to infrastructure demand support, but the overall demand is expected to decline year - on - year, and the industry is experiencing capacity reduction and increasing concentration [27][29]. Chapter 4: Coal - Chemical Futures Sector: Game Balance between Policy Impact and Cost Advantage - The coal - chemical sector is less directly affected by Warsh's policy. The prices of domestic coal - chemical products are mainly determined by policy regulation and the supply - demand fundamental of coal, and the demand for products like methanol and urea is relatively rigid. The coal - to - olefin route has a significant cost advantage when the international oil price is above 60 US dollars/barrel [30]. - It is expected that the stable coal cost and domestic rigid demand will support the prices of the coal - chemical sector. The methanol futures will maintain a range - bound trend, the urea futures may stabilize and rebound with the start of spring - plowing demand, and the price fluctuations of coal - based ethylene glycol will be limited [30]. Chapter 5: Rubber Futures Sector: Double Pressure from Import Dependence and Weak Overseas Demand - The rubber sector, which is import - dependent and sensitive to overseas demand, shows a "domestic - overseas resonance decline" under Warsh's policy impact. The strengthening of the US dollar increases import costs, and the continuous shrinkage of overseas terminal demand reduces the rubber procurement demand of domestic tire enterprises [31]. - In the short term, the double pressure of the strengthening US dollar and weak overseas demand will suppress rubber prices. In the long term, the incremental demand from the domestic new - energy vehicle industry and the supply contraction in Southeast Asia's main producing areas may support rubber prices [33]. Chapter 6: Polyester Futures Sector: Game Balance between Blocked Cost Transmission and Domestic Demand - The polyester sector shows characteristics of "pressured cost side, differentiated demand side". The decline in crude oil prices drags down raw - material costs, but the cost reduction is not fully transmitted to terminal products, and the profit margins of polyester enterprises improve marginally. The recovery of domestic consumption offsets the pressure from overseas demand [34]. - The polyester futures sector may present a pattern of "weak cost - side fluctuations, demand - side dominance" in the future. In the short term, the prices of PTA and ethylene glycol are under limited cost pressure, and the demand for polyester filament is expected to remain high. In the long term, the recovery of the global economy and domestic textile exports need to be monitored [35]. Chapter 7: Polyolefin Futures Sector: Resonant Decline due to Loose Supply - Demand and Policy Impact - The polyolefin sector is affected by both the loose supply - demand pattern and policy impact. On the supply side, the release of domestic production capacity and the pressure of imports intensify the supply - demand imbalance. On the demand side, the weak recovery of industrial demand fails to support price increases, and the pricing logic has shifted from "cost - side dominated" to "supply - demand - side dominated" [36][38]. - In the short term, the polyolefin sector will be suppressed by the loose supply - demand and policy uncertainties. In the long term, the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, and the demand growth from emerging fields will be the core driving force for structural opportunities [39]. Chapter 8: Summary - The domestic energy - chemical commodity futures market situation triggered by Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh is the result of the game between macro - policy expectation reconstruction and industrial fundamentals. The "tight liquidity + low - interest - rate" policy combination leads to a market structure of "upstream pressured, downstream differentiated" [40]. - Investors should focus on the supply - demand fundamentals and policy transmission logic of each sector, seize structural opportunities, and do a good job in risk prevention [40].

Oil Market - On Monday, oil prices saw a significant decline, with WTI March contract closing down by $3.07 to $62.14 per barrel, a drop of 4.71% [2] - Brent April contract closed down by $3.02 to $66.3 per barrel, a decrease of 4.36% [2] - SC2603 closed at 450 yuan per barrel, down by 22.7 yuan, a decline of 4.8% [2] - Iranian President ordered to initiate nuclear negotiations with the U.S., which may lead to high-level talks in the coming days [2] - OPEC+ decided to maintain March oil production unchanged due to weak seasonal demand [2] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil FU2603 fell by 7.01% to 2679 yuan/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil LU2604 dropped by 5.92% to 3128 yuan/ton [3] - Supply from Western arbitrage shipments is expected to remain high, keeping the low-sulfur market well supplied [3][4] - Demand for marine fuel oil is anticipated to increase before the Spring Festival [3] Asphalt - The main contract for asphalt BU2603 decreased by 4.879% to 3299 yuan/ton [5] - Northern regions are primarily focused on downstream stocking, while overall refinery inventory levels are expected to rise as transportation halts during the Spring Festival [5][6] Rubber - Shanghai rubber main contract RU2605 fell by 380 yuan/ton to 15980 yuan/ton, with NR main contract down by 310 yuan/ton to 12925 yuan/ton [6] - Natural rubber inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone increased by 3.32% to 10.57 million tons [6] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA605 closed at 5092 yuan/ton, down 3.38%, while EG2605 closed at 3767 yuan/ton, down 3.73% [7] - PX futures closed at 7150 yuan/ton, also down 3.38% [7] - The overall polyester production and sales are estimated to be low, around 20-30% [7] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were at 2230 yuan/ton, with CFR China prices ranging from $269 to $273 per ton [8] - Domestic production is expected to slightly decrease in February, while imports are anticipated to decline from high levels [8] Polyolefins - Mainstream prices for polypropylene in East China ranged from 6600 to 6780 yuan/ton, with various production margins reported [9] - The market is entering a holiday phase, leading to an increase in inventory [9] PVC - PVC prices in East China increased, with prices for calcium carbide method ranging from 4770 to 4860 yuan/ton [10] - The demand for PVC in downstream construction is expected to weaken as real estate activity declines [10] Urea - Urea prices remained stable, with some regions experiencing slight adjustments [11] - Daily production is fluctuating above 210,000 tons, with expectations for further supply increases [11] Soda Ash - Soda ash prices remained mostly stable, with some regions seeing slight declines [12] - The industry operating rate was reported at 82.29%, down 2.69 percentage points [12] Glass - Glass prices slightly decreased, with the average price at 1106 yuan/ton [14] - The market is facing pressure from declining demand as the Spring Festival approaches [14]

Group 1: Rubber Market - Domestic all-latex rubber price is 15,800 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan/ton from the previous day; Thai 20 mixed rubber price is 15,000 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan/ton [4][27] - As of February 1, 2026, Qingdao's total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade is 591,700 tons, an increase of 7,200 tons, or 1.23% from the previous period [5][28] - With the arrival of winter in the Northern Hemisphere, the market is expected to shift from dynamic pricing based on supply and demand to static pricing based on inventory levels, leading to high volatility in RU&NR&Sicom prices in the short term [5][28] Group 2: PX Market - PX industry load in China increased by 0.3 percentage points to 89.2%, while the Asian industry load increased by 0.6 percentage points to 81.6%, indicating a stable supply [6][29] - The demand side shows that downstream PTA facilities have many maintenance plans in the first quarter, which may affect PX demand [6][29] - The first quarter is expected to see a loosening of the PX supply-demand structure, with short-term price fluctuations anticipated [6][29] Group 3: PTA Market - PTA industry load remains stable at 76.6%, which is low compared to historical levels, with expectations of tightening supply due to maintenance plans [7][30] - The demand side is weak, with new orders declining and factory operating rates in Jiangsu and Zhejiang continuing to fall [7][30] - The PTA spot basis is expected to weaken due to reduced polyester production, leading to inventory pressure in the first quarter [7][30] Group 4: Polyester Market - Several polyester production facilities are undergoing maintenance, with a total capacity of 1.8% affected [8][31] - The average sales estimate for polyester in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is around 20-30% as of 3:30 PM on Monday, indicating weak demand [8][31] Group 5: Soda Ash Market - Soda ash futures experienced a slight decline, with the latest production increasing by 11,000 tons to 783,000 tons, indicating rising supply pressure [15][38] - Downstream demand has slightly decreased, with the latest soda ash factory inventory increasing by 16,000 tons to 156,000 tons [15][38] - The market sentiment is weak, with soda ash prices expected to remain low in the short term [15][38] Group 6: Glass Market - Glass futures saw a slight decline, with inventory decreasing by 33,000 tons to 2,628,000 tons, while production remained stable [40][41] - The demand for glass is weak due to seasonal factors, with the latest deep processing order quantity decreasing [40][41] Group 7: Caustic Soda Market - As of February 2, 2026, caustic soda futures increased by 29 yuan/ton to 2,004 yuan/ton, with stable prices in the market [42][43] - Demand is generally weak, but some caustic soda companies are reducing production, leading to stable prices [42][43] Group 8: PVC Market - PVC futures decreased by 49 yuan/ton to 5,014 yuan/ton, with supply pressure remaining high due to elevated operating rates [44][45] - Short-term expectations for PVC are optimistic due to a significant reduction in production growth in 2026 [44][45] Group 9: Polyolefins Market - Polyolefins are experiencing wide fluctuations, with LLDPE futures up and PP futures down, indicating mixed market conditions [46] - The overall supply trend remains high, but demand is entering a seasonal downturn [46]

Group 1 - Oil prices experienced fluctuations, with WTI March contract closing at $65.21 per barrel, a monthly increase of 14.51%, and Brent March contract at $70.69 per barrel, up 14.64% [2][41] - The overall trend in January showed a decline followed by a rebound, driven by geopolitical factors [2][41] - Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran remain a significant concern, with any diplomatic breakthroughs appearing unlikely [3][4] Group 2 - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a surplus in the global oil market this year, with supply exceeding demand by 3.85 million barrels per day, approximately 4% of global demand [5] - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has adjusted its forecast for 2026 demand growth down by 90,000 barrels to 1.14 million barrels per day [5] - US crude oil production has decreased to 13.7 million barrels per day, with expectations of further declines in the coming weeks [5] Group 3 - Extreme weather events have significantly impacted US oil production, causing a temporary 15% drop in output and leading to price volatility [4] - The market is sensitive to supply disruptions, with risk premiums of $3 to $8 per barrel due to potential interruptions [4] - Current US crude oil inventories stand at 838.753 million barrels, with commercial stocks at 423.754 million barrels, reflecting a 2.08% increase year-on-year [5] Group 4 - The supply of high-sulfur fuel oil from Iran is expected to decrease, with January shipments estimated at 900,000 tons, down 300,000 tons month-on-month [7] - Demand for high-sulfur fuel oil in China is anticipated to increase significantly, with expected imports of 100,000 tons in January and 105,000 tons in February [7] - The geopolitical situation in Iran continues to influence oil supply dynamics, with recent disruptions affecting shipping volumes [8] Group 5 - The overall sentiment in the oil market is mixed, with geopolitical uncertainties providing some support for prices while high inventories limit upward movement [6][8] - The market is expected to remain volatile, with short-term fluctuations driven by geopolitical developments and supply-demand dynamics [6][8]