Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see currently [3]. - For methanol, the positive impact of Iranian plant shutdowns is being realized, but the near - term high - inventory situation persists. The supply remains high while demand changes little. It's recommended to wait and see [6]. - For urea, prices are oscillating at the bottom and are relatively resilient. With support from export policies and costs, the downside is limited. It's suggested to consider buying on dips [8]. - For rubber, the current view is bullish. It's recommended to set stop - losses and conduct short - term bullish trades. Partial positions can be established for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [16]. - For PVC, the domestic supply is strong while demand is weak. It's advisable to consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [18]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the port inventory of styrene is decreasing significantly, and prices may stop falling in the short term [21]. - For polyethylene, prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [24]. - For polypropylene, under the background of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. It may be supported when the supply - surplus situation at the cost end changes in the first quarter of next year [27]. - For PX, it's expected to see a slight inventory build - up in November. The valuation is at a neutral level, and there is a risk of valuation correction [30]. - For PTA, the supply is expected to stabilize, and the demand may remain high in the short term. The PXN has a risk of valuation correction [32]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand outlook is weak. It's recommended to consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [35]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 3.00 yuan/barrel, or 0.67%, to 448.60 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil futures fell 9.00 yuan/ton, or 0.36%, to 2491.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil futures fell 40.00 yuan/ton, or 1.31%, to 3015.00 yuan/ton. China's weekly crude oil data showed an inventory build - up of 1.04 million barrels to 207.48 million barrels, a gasoline inventory draw of 1.52 million barrels to 85.45 million barrels, a diesel inventory draw of 4.06 million barrels to 91.54 million barrels, and a total refined oil inventory draw of 5.58 million barrels to 176.99 million barrels [2]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, and wait and see currently [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang increased by 7, in Lunan by 10, and remained stable in Inner Mongolia. The 01 contract on the futures market fell 10 yuan to 2067 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 7. The 1 - 5 spread was + 0, at - 121 [5]. - **Strategy**: The positive impact of Iranian plant shutdowns is being realized, but the near - term high - inventory situation persists. It's recommended to wait and see [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong and Henan fell by 10, and remained stable in Hubei. The 01 contract on the futures market fell 8 yuan to 1630 yuan, with a basis of - 10. The 1 - 5 spread was + 2, at - 71 [8]. - **Strategy**: Prices are oscillating at the bottom and are relatively resilient. Consider buying on dips [8]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rebounded oscillatingly. There was heavy rainfall in the Thai production area with a high risk of floods. The November warehouse receipts of natural rubber on the Shanghai Exchange expired and were about to be delivered out of the warehouse, leading to a bullish market expectation. As of November 20, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 60.57%, down 4.13 percentage points from last week and 2.01 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 72.77%, down 1.60 percentage points from last week and 6.01 percentage points from the same period last year. The export orders of semi - steel tires slowed down. As of November 16, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.062 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,000 tons, or 0.5% [12][14][15]. - **Strategy**: The current view is bullish. Set stop - losses and conduct short - term bullish trades. Partially establish positions for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [16]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract fell 5 yuan to 4491 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4460 (+20) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 31 (+25) yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 296 (-2) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 78.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.3%. Factory inventory was 315,000 tons (-7,000), and social inventory was 1.033 million tons (+5,000) [16]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply is strong while demand is weak. Consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [18]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of East China pure benzene was 5320 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price of styrene was 6500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 68.95%, down 0.30%. The inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 26,500 tons to 148,300 tons [20]. - **Strategy**: The port inventory of styrene is decreasing significantly, and prices may stop falling in the short term [21]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6762 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6830 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 84.63%, a month - on - month increase of 0.63%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 25,900 tons to 503,300 tons, and the trader inventory increased by 500 tons to 50,500 tons [23]. - **Strategy**: Prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [24]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6317 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6450 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 78.99%, a month - on - month increase of 0.92%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 26,200 tons to 593,800 tons, the trader inventory decreased by 3,900 tons to 213,400 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 1,100 tons to 65,800 tons [26]. - **Strategy**: Under the background of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. It may be supported when the supply - surplus situation at the cost end changes in the first quarter of next year [27]. PX, PTA, and MEG PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract fell 54 yuan to 6718 yuan. The PX CFR remained unchanged at 826 US dollars. The load in China was 89.5%, a month - on - month increase of 2.7%. The load in Asia was 79.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.2%. In the first and middle of November, South Korea's PX exports to China were 275,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19,000 tons [29]. - **Strategy**: It's expected to see a slight inventory build - up in November. The valuation is at a neutral level, and there is a risk of valuation correction [30]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract fell 24 yuan to 4656 yuan. The PTA load was 71%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.7%. The downstream load was 91.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on November 7 was 2.227 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons [31]. - **Strategy**: The supply is expected to stabilize, and the demand may remain high in the short term. The PXN has a risk of valuation correction [32]. MEG - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract fell 11 yuan to 3873 yuan. The supply - side load was 70.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7%. The downstream load was 91.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%. The port inventory remained unchanged at 732,000 tons [34]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand outlook is weak. Consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [35].

首席点评： 企业信心不减 国务院新闻办公室将于 11月27日上午10时举行国务院政策例行吹风会，请工信部、国家发改委、商务部、文化和旅游 部、市场监管总局有关负责人介绍增强消费品供需适配性进一步促进消费政策措施有关情况，并答记者问。据商务 部，1-10月，我国全行业对外直接投资1443.4亿美元，同比增长6.2%；对外承包工程业务新签合同额2107亿美元, 同比 增长18.6%。今年以来A股累计回购金额已超1300亿元，创出历史第二高水平。回购显著提振了上市公司的股价表现， 年内实施回购且股价翻倍的公司超过百家。医药生物行业已回购金额居首，达到143.49亿元，电力设备、电子、家 电、机械设备等行业回购金额均超百亿元。 重点品种：股指、油脂、橡胶 股指：美国三大指数上涨，上一交易日股指继续反弹，通信和传媒板块领涨，国防军工和交通运输板块领跌，市 场成交额 1.83万亿元。资金方面，11月24日融资余额减少28.80亿元至24422.98亿元。十五五规划仍然聚焦科技自 立，预计科技板块是长期方向。11月以来"权重走强、成长走弱"主要是短线交易节奏、事件扰动与资金防御需求 共同作用的结果。若后续海外科技业绩落地、 ...

能源化工期权 2025-11-25 能源化工期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | 能源化工期权策略早报概要：能源类：原油、LPG；聚烯烃类期权：聚丙烯、聚氯乙烯、塑料、苯乙烯；聚酯类期 权：对二甲苯、PTA、短纤、瓶片；碱化工类：烧碱、纯碱；其他能源化工类：橡胶等。 策略上：构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term excessive bearishness on oil prices is not advisable. A low - buying and high - selling range strategy is maintained, but current prices need to test OPEC's export price - support willingness. Short - term waiting for OPEC's export decline during price drops is recommended [3]. - For methanol, the positive impact of Iranian device shutdowns is being realized, and the market has risen significantly. However, the 01 contract has limited time and high near - end inventories. The supply remains high, and demand changes little. The market is expected to bottom out gradually, but due to the rapid short - term rise, it is advisable to wait and see [6]. - For urea, prices are oscillating and rising at the bottom, relatively resistant to decline. Supply - side enterprise profits are low, and production has slightly decreased but is still high year - on - year. Demand has improved, and with export policies and cost support, the downside is limited. It is expected to build a bottom through oscillation, and low - price long - position allocation can be considered [9]. - For rubber, a bullish short - term trading approach with stop - loss settings is recommended. A partial position in the hedge of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 can be established [16]. - For PVC, the industry has low comprehensive enterprise profits and high supply. Domestic demand is weak, and it is difficult to reverse the supply - surplus situation. Mid - term short - position allocation on price increases is recommended [18]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the supply of styrene is under pressure, but port inventories are decreasing significantly. Styrene prices may stop falling periodically [21]. - For polyethylene, the price is expected to oscillate at a low level. The cost - side impact has shifted, and although inventories are decreasing, high historical warehouse receipts suppress the market [24]. - For polypropylene, in a supply - demand weak situation with high inventory pressure, the market may be supported when the cost - side supply - surplus pattern changes in the first quarter of next year [27]. - For PX, it is expected to accumulate a small amount of inventory in November. With a neutral valuation, there is a risk of valuation callback [30]. - For PTA, the supply is expected to be stable, and demand may maintain a high level in the short term. However, PX has a risk of valuation callback, and PTA processing fees have limited upside [32]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand pattern is expected to be weak in the medium term. With a neutral - to - low valuation, mid - term short - position allocation on price increases is recommended [36]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 5.10 yuan/barrel, a 1.13% decline, at 447.90 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil futures also declined. European ARA weekly data showed mixed inventory changes in refined products, with a net decline of 0.38 million barrels in total refined oil inventory [2]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a low - buying and high - selling range strategy, but wait and see in the short term to verify OPEC's export price - support willingness [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Prices in Taicang increased by 53, in Lunan by 50, and remained stable in Inner Mongolia. The 01 contract on the futures market rose 73 yuan to 2077 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 24. The 1 - 5 spread was +13, at - 121 [5]. - **Strategy**: The market has risen due to Iranian device shutdowns, but the 01 contract has high near - end inventories. The supply remains high, and demand changes little. It is advisable to wait and see [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: Spot prices in Shandong, Henan, and Hubei remained stable. The 01 contract on the futures market fell 16 yuan to 1638 yuan, with a basis of - 8. The 1 - 5 spread was +1, at - 73 [8]. - **Strategy**: Prices are oscillating and rising at the bottom, relatively resistant to decline. Supply - side profits are low, and demand has improved. It is expected to build a bottom through oscillation, and low - price long - position allocation can be considered [9]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices oscillated and rebounded. There was heavy rainfall in the Thai production area, and the November warehouse receipts of natural rubber on the Shanghai Exchange were about to be delivered. Tire factory operating rates were weak, and natural rubber inventories increased slightly. Spot prices of some rubber products rose [12]. - **Strategy**: A bullish short - term trading approach with stop - loss settings is recommended. A partial position in the hedge of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 can be established [16]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract rose 40 yuan to 4496 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4440 (+20) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 56 (-20) yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 294 (+6) yuan/ton. Cost - side carbide prices rebounded, and caustic soda prices fell. Overall operating rates increased slightly, while downstream demand decreased slightly. Factory inventories decreased, and social inventories increased [16]. - **Strategy**: The industry has low comprehensive enterprise profits and high supply. Domestic demand is weak, and it is difficult to reverse the supply - surplus situation. Mid - term short - position allocation on price increases is recommended [18]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene was unchanged, and the futures price was also unchanged, with an enlarged basis. The spot and futures prices of styrene fell, with a strengthened basis. The upstream operating rate of styrene decreased, and port inventories decreased significantly. The demand - side operating rate of three S products increased slightly [20]. - **Strategy**: The supply of styrene is under pressure, but port inventories are decreasing significantly. Styrene prices may stop falling periodically [21]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract of polyethylene closed at 6793 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan. The spot price was unchanged. The upstream operating rate increased, and production enterprise inventories decreased, while trader inventories increased slightly. The downstream average operating rate increased slightly [23]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate at a low level. The cost - side impact has shifted, and although inventories are decreasing, high historical warehouse receipts suppress the market [24]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract of polypropylene closed at 6372 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. The spot price fell 25 yuan. The upstream operating rate increased, and inventories at production enterprises, traders, and ports all decreased. The downstream average operating rate increased slightly [26]. - **Strategy**: In a supply - demand weak situation with high inventory pressure, the market may be supported when the cost - side supply - surplus pattern changes in the first quarter of next year [27]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract rose 22 yuan to 6772 yuan. The PX CFR price rose 2 dollars to 826 dollars. The Chinese and Asian operating rates increased. Some devices restarted, and PTA operating rates decreased. November imports from South Korea increased year - on - year, and inventories increased in September [29]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to accumulate a small amount of inventory in November. With a neutral valuation, there is a risk of valuation callback [30]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract rose 14 yuan to 4680 yuan. The spot price in East China rose 15 yuan/ton. The PTA operating rate decreased, and downstream operating rates increased. Inventories increased slightly, and processing fees rose slightly [31]. - **Strategy**: The supply is expected to be stable, and demand may maintain a high level in the short term. However, PX has a risk of valuation callback, and PTA processing fees have limited upside [32]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract rose 76 yuan to 3884 yuan. The spot price in East China rose 38 yuan. The supply - side operating rate decreased, and downstream operating rates increased. Port inventories remained unchanged, and production profits were negative [35]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand pattern is expected to be weak in the medium term. With a neutral - to - low valuation, mid - term short - position allocation on price increases is recommended [36].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Neutral (not explicitly stated in a clear rating system but based on the context of market analysis) [6] - Methanol: Consider buying the 5 - 9 month spread, but with caution [6] - Pure Benzene: Bearish bias, consider option configuration [3] - Styrene: Price supported but limited upside [3] - Polypropylene: Slight bearish due to supply increase and weak demand [2] - Plastic: Bearish due to increased supply and weak demand [2] - PVC: Follow cost - end changes, supply high and demand weak [7] - Caustic Soda: Weak operation, follow profit changes [7] - PX: Strong before new capacity, short - term supply - demand weakening [5] - PTA: Cost - driven, reduced inventory build - up expectation [5] - Ethylene Glycol: Short - term rebound expected but limited space [5] - Short Fiber: Price follows raw materials, no new investment pressure [5] - Bottle Chips: Cost - driven, long - term over - capacity pressure [5] - Soda Ash: Bullish short - term, oversupply long - term [8] - Glass: Limited downside, consider long - glass short - soda strategy [8] Core Views - The overall chemical market is complex, with different products showing various trends based on supply, demand, cost, and market sentiment factors. Some products have short - term bullish or bearish trends, while others face long - term challenges such as over - capacity [2][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Two - olefin futures contracts are fluctuating around the 5 - day moving average. Plastic and polypropylene futures are weak due to increased supply and weak demand. Polyethylene supply pressure increases with reduced maintenance and more shipments, and demand from downstream industries is weak. Polypropylene supply is expected to increase slightly, and demand is limited [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures are weak, and the rebound is bearish. Consider option configuration. Styrene price is supported by tight supply - demand balance but has limited upside due to uncertain cost and demand support [3] Polyester - PX is strong before new capacity but short - term supply - demand is weakening. PTA is cost - driven with reduced inventory build - up expectation. Ethylene glycol has a short - term rebound expectation but limited space. Short fiber price follows raw materials, and bottle chips are cost - driven with long - term over - capacity pressure [5] Coal Chemicals - Methanol can consider buying the 5 - 9 month spread due to overseas production cuts and low valuation, but be cautious of weak reality. Urea supply is sufficient, and the market may return to a stalemate [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC has good export to India but weak domestic demand, and it may follow cost - end changes. Caustic soda is in a weak operation due to high supply and low demand [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash is de - stocking and bullish short - term but oversupplied long - term. Glass has limited downside and can consider the long - glass short - soda strategy [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The polyolefin industry is expected to experience weak and volatile trends in the near term [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Plastic and PP开工率 - Plastic (PE)开工率 increased by 2.5 percentage points to around 89.5%, at a neutral level [14] - PP开工率 rose by 0.5 percentage points to around 83.5%, at a slightly below - neutral level [14] Plastic and PP下游开工率 - As of the week of November 21, PE下游开工率 increased by 0.20 percentage points to 44.69%, still at a relatively low level in recent years [19] - As of the week of November 21, PP下游开工率 rose by 0.29 percentage points to 53.57%, at a relatively low level in the same period of previous years [19] Plastic基差 - The basis of the 01 contract dropped to 150 yuan/ton, at a slightly below - neutral level [24] Plastic and PP库存 - On Friday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 0.5 million tons to 68.5 million tons, 8 million tons higher than the same period last year, and the inventory reduction slowed down [28] Market Situation and Outlook - The petrochemical inventory reduction has slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a slightly above - neutral level in recent years [3][28] - The cost of crude oil has decreased due to factors such as the non - impact of sanctions on Russian oil production and the possibility of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict [3] - New production capacities have been put into operation, including ExxonMobil (Huizhou) LDPE with an annual capacity of 500,000 tons, PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical PE with an annual capacity of 700,000 tons, and PP with an annual capacity of 400,000 tons [3] - The agricultural film season is coming to an end, and orders for products like plastic weaving have limited follow - up, with the peak season falling short of expectations [3] - Downstream enterprises have insufficient purchasing willingness, and traders are cautious about the future market, actively selling goods at reduced prices [3] - There is no actual policy for anti - involution in the polyolefin industry yet, and relevant macro - policies will affect future market trends [3]

聚烯烃周报 广发期货有限公司 研究所 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1292号 本报告及路演当中所有观点仅供参考，请务必阅读此报告倒数第二页的免责声明 2025年11月22日 张晓珍 从业资格：F0288167 投资咨询资格：Z0003135 PE周度 核心变化与策略 ◼ 本周聚乙烯市场供需双弱，价格震荡下跌，下游刚需拿货，上游库存累积较多 供应端 1. 国产：本周聚乙烯产量为67.03万吨（-0.35万吨） 产能利用率为82.71%（-0.43%）；预计下期产量预计68.29万吨（+1.26万吨）。本期产量因新增万华化学、 吉林石化、中英石化等装置检修而减少；下期因中英石化、镇海炼化、中天合创等装置计划重启而增加。 2. 新装置情况：埃肯森美孚LD50万吨临停。 3. 进口：外商年底最后一轮报盘，外商报盘行为稍有放缓，中东资源船期延后，美国库存压力减轻，报价减少，市场观望情绪浓厚。 需求端 1. 下游开工：PE下游各行业整体开工率在44.69%（+0.20%） 2. 棚膜需求正由北向南转移，部分企业仍处于生产旺季，但受需求减弱影响，订单以短期小单为主；地膜市场已进入需求淡季。包装膜市场交易环境改善有 ...

| 橡胶产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年11月24日 | | | | 蔵帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品中 | 11月21日 | 11月20日 | 演员 | 派跌喝 | 电应 | | △南国营全乳胶(SCRWF):上海 | 14750 | 14850 | -100 | -0.67% | | | 全乳基差 | -490 | -400 | -90 | -22.50% | 70/04 | | 泰标混合胶报价 | 14600 | 14650 | -50 | -0.34% | | | 非标价差 | -640 | -600 | -40 | -6.67% | | | 杯胶:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 52.91 | 53.48 | -0.57 | -1.07% | | | 胶水:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 57.00 | 56.70 | 0.30 | 0.53% | 泰铢/公斤 | | 天然橡胶:胶块:西双版纳州 | 13100 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention [2]. - For methanol, the futures market is in a weak downward trend. High port inventories persistently suppress prices and the monthly structure. Supply remains high while demand shows little change. The market is trading on weak - reality logic, and prices may further decline [4]. - For urea, prices are oscillating at the bottom and showing relative resilience. With improved demand and cost support, the downside is limited, and it's expected to build a bottom through oscillation. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended [7]. - For PVC, the supply - demand situation is poor with strong supply and weak demand in China. Although the valuation has dropped to a low level, it still can't support the current supply - demand imbalance. A strategy of short - selling on rallies is suggested in the medium term [12]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the port inventory of styrene is decreasing significantly, and with the seasonal peak in demand, styrene prices may stop falling temporarily [18]. - For polyethylene, the price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. The cost - driven downward trend has shifted to the issue of South Korean ethylene clearance [21]. - For polypropylene, in a situation of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, there is no prominent short - term contradiction. The price may be supported when the supply - surplus situation in the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [23]. - For PX, it is expected to experience a slight inventory build - up in November. With a neutral valuation and weakening aromatics blending data, there is a risk of valuation correction [27]. - For PTA, the supply of unexpected outages is expected to decrease, and demand may remain high in the short term. However, PTA processing fees have limited upside, and there is a risk of PXN valuation correction [29]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand outlook is weak. Although the inventory build - up may slow down, a strategy of short - selling on rallies is recommended in the medium term [32]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 7.60 yuan/barrel, a 1.67% decline, at 447.40 yuan/barrel. Singapore's ESG oil product weekly data showed gasoline and diesel inventories increasing, fuel oil inventory decreasing, and total refined oil inventory increasing [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Maintain a range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high, and wait and see for now [2]. 3.2 Methanol - **Market Information**: Taicang's price remained stable, Lunan's price decreased by 5, Inner Mongolia's price increased by 5, the 01 contract of the futures market decreased by 12 yuan to 2004 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 4. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 3 to - 134 [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The futures market is in a weak downward trend. High port inventories suppress prices, and there is a risk of further price decline [4]. 3.3 Urea - **Market Information**: Shandong's spot price increased by 10, Henan's increased by 20, Hubei's increased by 10. The 01 contract of the futures market decreased by 11 yuan to 1654 yuan, and the basis was - 24. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 4 to - 74 [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Prices are oscillating at the bottom and showing relative resilience. With improved demand and cost support, the downside is limited. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended [7]. 3.4 PVC - **Market Information**: The 01 contract remained unchanged at 4456 yuan. Changzhou's SG - 5 spot price was 4420 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 36. The 1 - 5 spread was - 300. The cost side remained stable, and the overall开工 rate was 78.8%, with an increase of 0.3%. The demand - side downstream开工 rate was 49.2%, with a decrease of 0.3% [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand situation is poor with strong supply and weak demand in China. A strategy of short - selling on rallies is suggested in the medium term [12]. 3.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: Pure benzene's spot and futures prices remained unchanged, and the basis widened. Styrene's spot and futures prices increased, and the basis strengthened. The upstream开工 rate decreased by 0.30%, and the port inventory decreased by 2.65 million tons. The demand - side three - S weighted开工率 increased by 0.21% [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With the significant decrease in styrene's port inventory and the seasonal peak in demand, styrene prices may stop falling temporarily [18]. 3.6 Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price was 6781 yuan/ton, a decrease of 54 yuan/ton. The spot price remained unchanged at 6855 yuan/ton, and the basis strengthened by 54 yuan to 74. The upstream开工 rate increased by 0.89%. The production enterprise's inventory decreased by 2.59 million tons, and the trader's inventory increased by 0.05 million tons. The downstream average开工率 decreased by 0.29% [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. The cost - driven downward trend has shifted to the issue of South Korean ethylene clearance [21]. 3.7 Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price was 6400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34 yuan/ton. The spot price decreased by 15 yuan to 6505 yuan/ton, and the basis strengthened by 19 yuan to 105. The upstream开工率 decreased by 0.68%. The production enterprise's, trader's, and port inventories all decreased. The downstream average开工率 increased by 0.14% [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In a situation of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, there is no prominent short - term contradiction. The price may be supported when the supply - surplus situation in the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [23]. 3.8 PX - **Market Information**: The 01 contract decreased by 80 yuan to 6750 yuan, and PX CFR decreased by 9 dollars to 824 dollars. The basis was - 19 yuan, and the 1 - 3 spread was - 14 yuan. China's PX负荷 was 89.5%, an increase of 2.7%, and Asia's was 79.7%, an increase of 1.2%. PTA's负荷 was 71%, a decrease of 4.7%. The inventory at the end of September was 402.6 million tons, an increase of 10.8 million tons compared to the previous month [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected to experience a slight inventory build - up in November. With a neutral valuation and weakening aromatics blending data, there is a risk of valuation correction [27]. 3.9 PTA - **Market Information**: The 01 contract decreased by 30 yuan to 4666 yuan, and the East China spot price decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 4615 yuan. The basis was - 63 yuan, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 44 yuan. PTA's负荷 was 71%, a decrease of 4.7%. The downstream负荷 was 91.3%, an increase of 0.8%. The social inventory on November 7 was 222.7 million tons, an increase of 2 million tons compared to the previous period. The spot processing fee increased by 35 yuan to 199 yuan, and the futures processing fee increased by 22 yuan to 238 yuan [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of unexpected outages is expected to decrease, and demand may remain high in the short term. However, PTA processing fees have limited upside, and there is a risk of PXN valuation correction [29]. 3.10 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract decreased by 14 yuan to 3808 yuan, and the East China spot price decreased by 33 yuan to 3852 yuan. The basis was 32 yuan, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 93 yuan. The supply - side负荷 was 70.8%, a decrease of 0.7%. The downstream负荷 was 91.3%, an increase of 0.8%. The port inventory increased by 7.1 million tons to 73.2 million tons [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand outlook is weak. Although the inventory build - up may slow down, a strategy of short - selling on rallies is recommended in the medium term [32].

行业 能源化工周报 日期 2025 年 11 月 21 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油、沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅多晶硅） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 期货从业资格号：F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 | ⇒ 原油 . | | --- ...