2025年，全球关税摩擦愈演愈烈，美联储年内三度降息累计75个基点，人工智能狂潮席卷全球，地缘紧 张局势加剧，金融市场波动剧烈。 美国股市三大股指均实现两位数的涨幅，连续第三年上涨；美元去年下跌逾9%，录得2017年以来最大年 跌幅；美国10年期收益率自2020年以来首次出现年度下跌，而两年期收益率则有望创下2020年以来的最 大年度跌幅。 大宗商品方面，黄金创下46年来最大年度涨幅，创下有史以来最强劲的年度表现，白银和铂金年度表现 更是创下纪录；LME期铜创下16年来最大年度涨幅，年底再创纪录新高；CBOT大豆录得三年来首个年度 涨幅，由于中国重返美国市场；油价去年大跌近20%，创2020年以来最大年度跌幅。追踪全球大宗商品走 势的CRB指数去年上涨0.69%。 **贵金属成为最大赢家** **美国股市录得两位数涨幅** 美国股市三大股指2025年录得强劲年度涨幅，标普500指数、道琼斯工业指数和纳斯达克指数今年均实现 两位数的涨幅。这标志着三大股指连续第三年上涨，上一次出现这种情况是在2019-2021年。这一年的过 山车式行情主要由特朗普总统的关税不确定性以及围绕人工智能（AI）重点股票的亢奋情绪主导。 ...

本报讯 记者马玲报道 近日，中国人民银行公布了2025年11月金融市场运行情况。 债券市场发行情况方面，2025年11月，债券市场共发行各类债券70179.3亿元。其中，国债发行 10444.2亿元，地方政府债券发行9126.9亿元，金融债券发行11955.0亿元，公司信用类债券发行13948.8 亿元，信贷资产支持证券发行327.2亿元，同业存单发行24009.2亿元。 截至2025年11月末，债券市场托管余额196.3万亿元。其中，银行间市场托管余额173.0万亿元，交 易所市场托管余额23.2万亿元。分券种来看，国债托管余额40.1万亿元，地方政府债券托管余额54.3万 亿元，金融债券托管余额44.6万亿元，公司信用类债券托管余额34.8万亿元，信贷资产支持证券托管余 额1.0万亿元，同业存单托管余额20.3万亿元。商业银行柜台债券托管余额2740.7亿元。 债券市场运行情况方面，2025年11月，银行间债券市场现券成交30.5万亿元，日均成交1.5万亿元， 同比增长7.6%，环比增长3.2%。单笔成交量在500万元至5000万元的交易占总成交金额的47.9%，单笔 成交量在9000万元以上的交易占总成 ...

Group 1 - Precious metals showed strong performance in 2025, with international spot gold and silver experiencing a significant annual performance, marking the best year since 1979, despite a recent pullback at year-end [1] - The S&P 500 achieved a double-digit gain for the third consecutive year, while the MSCI global index rose over 20%, exceeding most analysts' expectations [1] - The US dollar index fell over 9% for the year, marking its largest annual decline in eight years, and maintained fluctuations above the 98 mark at the beginning of 2026 [1] Group 2 - Commodity benchmark index rebalancing is imminent, leading to short-term selling pressure on gold and silver, although long-term outlook remains positive [2] - Traders are closely monitoring the upcoming commodity benchmark index weight adjustment, which may impact short-term prices, with passive tracking funds likely to sell off some contracts to match new weight configurations [2] - Silver futures currently account for 9% of the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM), with a target weight of just below 4% for 2026, indicating a forced sell-off of over $5 billion in silver-related holdings [2] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes revealed cautious attitudes among policymakers regarding further rate cuts, with a low likelihood of a cut at the January meeting but nearly a 50% chance of a 25 basis point cut in March [3] - The focus this week will be on the US non-farm payroll data for December, marking the resumption of normal data collection after a government shutdown [3]

现货黄金全年累计涨幅约64%，这不仅是近年来最强劲的表现，更是自1979年以来最大的年度涨幅，创 下了46年来的新纪录。 不仅仅是黄金，其他贵金属的表现更是令人惊叹。白银全年涨幅超过147%，远远甩开黄金，成为有史 以来最强劲的年度表现者。铂金涨幅超过126%，同样创下有记录以来的最大年度涨幅，现货铂金年末 回落6%至2054美元，却无法抹去其从低谷到2478.50美元纪录高点的辉煌。钯金则上涨超过75%，创下 15年来最佳年度表现。 非农倒计时！ 本周，美股三大股指纷纷下跌，截至收盘，道指累计下跌0.67%，标普500指数累计下跌1.03%，纳指累 计下跌1.52%。 下周是2026年第一个完整交易周，几乎所有决定方向的数据要在这一周内集中出现：制造业、服务业数 据，职位空缺，非农数据也将压轴出场。 其中，非农是一锤定音的数据，1月9日，美国将发布12月非农就业报告。 当前市场预期新增就业约5.5万人，失业率维持在4.6%。彭博经济研究的预测更为积极，预计就业增长 8.0万人。本次数据的关键看点在于就业增长与失业率高企并存的矛盾现象。报告结果将直接影响市场 对经济韧性与美联储政策路径的判断。 如果其温和走弱 ...

图 一周摘要 图 市场概况 ：上周A股市场整体呈现震荡调整格局，主要宽基指数涨跌分化，成长与中小盘风格相对承 压，市场结构性特征显著。上证指数微涨0.13%，收于3,968.84点，表现相对稳健；深证成指下跌 0.58%，创业板指下跌1.25%，创业板50下跌1.50%，均录得负收益。值得一提的是，港股开年第一个交 易日开门红，恒生科技上扬4%，传递出外围资金对新兴市场的积极信号，市场在结构分化中酝酿新的 向上动能。 01 全球大类资产回顾 上周全球主要市场呈现分化格局，美国股市普遍回调，三大股指跌幅均超1%；欧洲市场温和反弹，法 国CAC40以1.13%升幅领涨；亚洲新兴市场显著走强，韩国综合指数上涨4.36%，恒生指数上涨2.01%。 贵金属整体回调，白银与黄金价格显著下行；有色金属延续强势，铜、铝价格上行，受供应扰动与全球 流动性预期支撑；能源市场分化，原油温和上涨，天然气大幅下挫。 美元指数在近一周内稳步上行，从98.03升至98.46，累计上涨0.43%。尽管全球风险资产波动，美元获 得一定支撑，主要受美国国债收益率温和回升及澳元等商品货币相对走弱影响。 图表1：全球大类资产收益表现 单位：% 行业 ...

Market Overview - On the last trading day of 2025, US stock index futures collectively declined, with technology stocks under pressure in pre-market trading [1] - The market experienced light trading due to holiday factors, with European stocks showing mixed results [2] - Major global exchanges shortened trading hours, with Japan, South Korea, and Germany closed, and France and the UK closing early [1] Key Market Movements - The Dow futures fell by 0.15%, S&P 500 futures dropped by 0.26%, and Nasdaq futures decreased by nearly 0.4% [1][4] - The 10-year US Treasury yield decreased by 1 basis point to 4.11% [3] - The US dollar remained stable, while the euro and yen both fell by 0.1% against the dollar [3] Commodity and Cryptocurrency Performance - Spot silver plummeted over 5.4% to $72 per ounce, with a significant drop of nearly 7% at one point [3][4] - Spot gold decreased by 0.2% to $4,329 per ounce, while WTI crude oil rose by 0.3% to $58.1 per barrel [3] - Bitcoin increased by 0.3% to $88,476.81, and Ethereum rose by 0.2% to $2,971.16 [3] Analyst Insights - Market dynamics are influenced more by divergence than direction as the year-end approaches, which has somewhat suppressed risk appetite [1] - Investment portfolio adjustments may be occurring as fund managers seek to align their holdings with benchmark indices after a strong year [3]

本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【国泰海通建议1月超配风险资产】12月30日，国泰海通表示，美联储如期降息并超预期扩表，或阶段 性降低投资者的政策不确定性与市场博弈性。全球权益和大宗商品仍有表现机会，建议1月超配风险资 产。具体配置权重方面，建议权益配置权重为50.00%，债券为35.00%，商品为15.00%。2026年1月权益 配置权重建议为47.50%，其中超配A股、港股（10.00%）、美股（17.50%），低配欧股（2.50%）、印 股（2.50%），标配日股（5.00%）。权益资产配置理由，一是多重因素支持中国权益表现，建议超配 A/H股。工作会议临近，2026年是十五五开局之年，广义赤字或扩张，政策将更积极。美联储12月降 息，人民币升值，为中国货币宽松创造条件，改革也提振市场风险偏好。二是"金发姑娘"背景渐显利于 美股表现，建议超配美股。美国边际降温但有韧性，内生性通胀粘性减弱，企业盈利预期或支撑美股中 枢上行。 ...

Group 1: US Bond Market - The volatility of the US bond market is expected to record its largest annual decline since 2009, with the ICE BofA MOVE index dropping to approximately 59, the lowest level since October 2024 [1] - The index has decreased from around 99 at the end of 2024, indicating one of the most significant annual declines since data began in 1988, second only to the crash in 2009 [1] Group 2: South Korea's Export Growth - Strong growth momentum in South Korea's exports is likely to continue into December, with a median forecast of an 8.3% year-on-year increase, slightly down from 8.4% in November [2] - Imports are expected to rise by 2.4%, resulting in a trade surplus of $10 billion for December, up from a revised surplus of $9.74 billion in the previous month [2] - The growth is supported by strong external demand and a recent trade agreement with the US, which is anticipated to bolster manufacturing output and export growth [2] Group 3: Indonesia Stock Market - Despite foreign capital outflows, Indonesia's stock market is on track to achieve its best performance in eleven years, driven by the increasing influence of local retail investors [2] - The Jakarta Composite Index has risen nearly 22% year-to-date, marking the largest annual increase since 2014 [2] - Retail investors are actively buying speculative stocks, seeking higher returns amid declining bond yields, despite concerns from foreign investors regarding economic growth and government spending risks [2] Group 4: Copper Market - Copper prices are poised to achieve the longest consecutive increase since 2017, with a recent rise of 2.2% to $12,493 per ton, indicating strong bullish sentiment in the market [3] - The increase is driven by expectations of heightened supply chain pressures and the need for buyers to complete purchases before potential tariffs are imposed [3] - Supply issues from major copper-producing countries, including Indonesia, Chile, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, are central to the market dynamics, with warnings of severe copper supply shortages by 2026 [3] Group 5: Precious Metals Market - Spot silver experienced a drop of up to 8%, while gold fell below $4,400 per ounce, as traders took profits after record highs [4] - Both gold and silver are currently in overbought territory, suggesting a need for a healthy correction before any continuation of the upward trend [4] - Analysts expect further price correction for gold as investors adjust and rebalance their positions towards the end of the month and year [4]

Group 1: Precious Metals Futures - New York gold prices experienced significant volatility, dropping below $4420 per ounce on December 29, with a daily decline of 2.92%, and further falling to $4330 per ounce, expanding the daily loss to 4.93% [1][6] - On December 30, New York gold initially broke above $4360 per ounce, with a daily increase of 0.38%, but later fell below $4340 per ounce, resulting in a daily decline of 0.09% [1][6] - Spot gold also showed large fluctuations, falling below $4310 per ounce on December 29, with a daily drop of 5.03%, and then rising above $4340 per ounce on December 30, with a daily increase of 0.21% [1][6] - New York silver similarly experienced a volatile market, dropping below $71 per ounce on December 29, with a daily decline of 8.25%, and rebounding above $72 per ounce on December 30, with a daily increase of 2.20% [1][7] - Spot silver fell below $71 per ounce on December 29, with a daily drop of 10.31% [1][7] - Palladium futures fell below $1700 per ounce on December 29, with a significant drop of 15.98% [2][7] Group 2: Base Metals Futures - Base metals futures faced widespread pressure, with copper futures dropping 4% on December 29, now priced at 96420.00 yuan [3][8] - Tin futures showed extreme volatility, initially dropping 5% (to 325220.00 yuan), then 6% (to 321750.00 yuan), and ultimately closing down 7% at 318370.00 yuan [3][8] Group 3: Energy and Shipping Futures - U.S. crude oil futures closed at $58.08 per barrel on December 29, an increase of $1.34, or 2.36% [4][9] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) announced a delay in the release of the weekly oil status report, with notifications to be provided at least one hour in advance [4][9] - For the week ending December 19, EIA reported a decrease in natural gas inventories by 1660 billion cubic feet, slightly above the expected decrease of 1680 billion cubic feet [4][9] Group 4: Macro and Market Impact - The volatility in precious metals and metal futures may be linked to geopolitical factors and market sentiment [5][10] - U.S. Congressman Green criticized both parties for their roles in the growth of national debt and the depreciation of the dollar, while Trump mentioned considering legal action against Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, increasing policy uncertainty and market volatility [5][10] - In the U.S. stock market, the Dow opened down 0.2% on December 29, with the S&P 500 down 0.5% and the Nasdaq down 0.8%, while silver mining stocks generally declined, with the Invesco Silver Trust down 7.3% [5][10] - On December 30, all three major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow down 0.51%, Nasdaq down 0.5%, and S&P down 0.35% [5][10]

2024 Getty Images / Getty Images News via Getty Images Investors who are looking to either match (or hopefully beat) the indexes in 2026, there are plenty of factors to consider. Quick Read Bonds rise as interest rates fall due to inverse correlation. Treasury-focused ETFs provide diversification with lower risk. Alternative assets like real estate and precious metals may outperform if consumers shift toward value and tangible holdings. Dividend stocks become more attractive as Fed rates decline be ...