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国债半年度报告:风险偏好提升,债券吸引力下降
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 05:38
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31 Ø 近两年,债券收益率流畅的下行一方面支撑来自于基本面,另一 方面资产荒的大环境必不可少。资金是逐利的,当国内主要资产 收益率面临下滑,缺乏赚钱效应时,低息的债券以稳胜出,被投 资者所选择。叠加资本利得的加持以及国内货币政策宽松的背 景,综合才造就了这两年较为极致的债牛行情。 Ø 今年以来,若按传统的债券分析框架,基本面并未出现明显的边 际变化去支撑债券收益率走高,尤其是下半年年以来,出口压力 加大,制造业动能转弱,国补逐步退出,经济出现断档式回落的 压力。三季度债券市场意外转向,我们认为最核心的变化在于股 市的牛市行情。权益市场牛市预期逐步形成,商品也在反内卷政 策下有看不见的手托底,两个大类资产的赚钱效应显现导致投资 者不再满足于债券微薄的收益,资金出现分流,情绪转弱易跌难 涨。 Ø 三季度末债券市场仍未出现明确的企稳迹象,收益率上行难言结 束。对债券市场而言,主要的利空仍是风险资产收益回升对资金 的分流,股市强势表现的持续性较强,尚未看到明显回落盘整的 迹象。从政策的导向来看,股市引导中长期资金入市,中国资产 价格重估是中长期趋势。因此,无论是外资还是境内机构 ...
当前股票回报是否过高
Guo Ji Jin Rong Bao· 2025-09-29 02:54
来源:威灵顿投资管理,Refinitiv 。数据区间:1998年1月31日至2025年8月31日。指数包括: MSCI世界指数、ICE美银全球政府债指数、ICE美银全球公司债指数、ICE美银全球高收益债指数、标 普高盛商品指数。过往业绩不代表未来表现。 三、关注图表中的偏度。具有良好回报特征的资产类别(即在上涨年份表现强劲、下跌年份相对损 失较小),如信用债,对于资产配置者尤其有价值。相比之下,大宗商品的涨跌往往更加均衡。在这种 情况下,主动管理可能有助于引入或增强投资组合的正偏度。 对于需要重点关注的领域,笔者认为,可关注延长周期的结构性增长催化剂,包括财政刺激、政策 改革以及央行潜在的降息举措。此外,关注通胀走势及跨资产相关性上升的可能性。尽管央行在缓解通 胀方面已取得实质性进展,关税也尚未引发再通胀,但仍需密切关注全球财政扩张和贸易政策等潜在催 尽管宏观和地缘政治环境充满挑战,但全球股市自年初以来依然表现强劲。从MSCI全球指数来 看,全球股票自2025年年初以来上涨约15%,延续了过去几年的强劲走势。这种持续的韧性可能会令部 分投资者感到意外,尤其是考虑到自2022年熊市结束以来全球股票的年均回报率高 ...
大类资产早报-20250929
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 02:00
| | | | | | 研究中心宏观团队 2025/09/29 | | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债收益率 | | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 2025/09/26 | 4.176 | 4.745 | 3.568 | 2.745 | 3.579 | 3.311 | 0.157 | 3.429 | | 最新变化 | 0.005 | -0.011 | -0.032 | -0.028 | -0.027 | -0.024 | -0.023 | -0.027 | | 一周变化 | 0.048 | 0.031 | 0.015 | -0.001 | 0.047 | 0.018 | -0.021 | 0.037 | | 一月变化 | -0.054 | 0.024 | 0.057 | 0.022 | -0.006 | -0.018 | -0.116 | 0.01 ...
美国债务危机:2025年的全球隐忧与重塑机遇
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-09-28 12:37
未来十年将是决定美国财政命运的关键时期。 债务问题作为当代全球经济体系的核心挑战,已深刻影响金融稳定、地缘政治格局以及市场动态。这一 问题并非突发事件,而是长期财政政策失衡、生产力下降以及货币体系脆弱性的结果。美国作为世界最 大经济体,其公共债务从20世纪中叶的相对可控水平,迅速膨胀至当今的庞大规模,不仅考验国内经济 韧性,还波及国际贸易、货币霸权和安全格局。2025年9月的数据显示,美国联邦债务总额已达37.3万 亿美元,债务/GDP比率超过119%,远高于国际货币基金组织(IMF)建议的发达国家阈值 (60%~80%)。这一危机通过债券市场收益率上升、全球去美元化趋势以及地缘政治紧张显现,预示 着潜在的货币体系重置。理解债务危机的成因、表现和潜在后果,对于投资者、经济学家和政策制定者 而言至关重要。 债务危机的成因分析 美国联邦债务的快速增长主要缘于长期的预算赤字。自2001年以来,美国政府几乎每年都出现赤字, 2025财年的预计赤字为1.9万亿美元,相当于GDP的6%。赤字的来源包括税收减少、支出增长和经济波 动。特朗普政府于2017年推出的减税政策以及2025年的进一步减税措施显著降低了联邦收入。美国 ...
1,000 Americans Became Millionaires Every Day in 2024: 3 Assets That Are Driving Their Wealth
Yahoo Finance· 2025-09-27 14:57
While headlines in 2024 were filled with talk of inflation, tech disruptions and global uncertainty, a quieter trend was unfolding: every single day, about 1,000 Americans crossed the threshold into millionaire status, according to UBS’ 2025 Global Wealth Report. Trending Now: Avoid These 4 Common Mistakes When You Get Rich Overnight For You: The 5 Car Brands Named the Least Reliable of 2025 That’s not just a lucky few — it’s a sign of something bigger happening beneath the surface. So what’s fueling this ...
没想到!这样配置居然能跑赢99%的散户!
雪球· 2025-09-27 13:01
以下文章来源于思哲与创富 ,作者思哲 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 作者: 思哲与创富 来源:雪球 昨天有个人评论区说自己已经满仓满融科技了。 吃肉我倒不羡慕 ,因为我知道跑得不够快的话 , 老寒腿可能随时被埋里面 。 思哲与创富 . 全天候-永久投资策略投顾主理人,全球资产配置,为你做好家庭投资框架,穿越牛熊 看我文章比较久的读者 , 应该也知道 , 我是一个全球多元资产配置理念的践行者 , 行业都很少配置 , 更何况是一些高估值行业。 更多是资产包里面放多少比例的价值股 , 成长股 , 大类资产可以配置黄金 、 美债 、 美股ETF等等 , 不少人对 资产配置 还是没啥概念 , 觉得我这么分散肯定赚不到钱 , 只有集中火力all in才能赚个大的。 这里我别的不说哈 , 你们可以自己回测一下基金组合 , 看下资产配置策略怎么样 , 这里以 永久投资组合 为例 , 输入 纳斯达克100 、 标普 500 、 美元债 、 中债 、 黄金。 我们设置纳斯达克100配比12.5% , 标普500配比12.5% , 黄金配比25% , 中债25% , 美债25% , 然后就可以生成一个永久策略的历史数据回测图 ...
每日投行/机构观点梳理(2025-09-25)
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-09-25 10:56
Group 1: Currency and Economic Outlook - Barclays reports that despite recent negative events, the US dollar has remained resilient, with no significant decline observed since May, even amid weak economic data and challenges to the Federal Reserve's credibility [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts that the US economy will recover in the coming months, which may support the dollar's continued strength [1] Group 2: Oil and Emerging Markets - Goldman Sachs states that a complete ban on Russian oil imports by the EU is unlikely due to reliance from certain member states like Hungary and Slovakia, and any potential ban would only redistribute oil flows rather than reduce global supply [2] - Goldman Sachs expects emerging market stocks and currencies to rise by the end of the year, raising the MSCI Emerging Markets Index target from 1,370 to 1,480 points, indicating a potential 10% upside [2] Group 3: Domestic Market Insights - Dongfang Jincheng forecasts stable and ample market liquidity by year-end, with potential for a new round of reserve requirement ratio cuts and government bond purchases [4] - CITIC Securities highlights the long video industry benefiting from favorable policies, which may enhance production capacity and efficiency for content creators [6][10] - CITIC Securities notes a recovery in the restaurant industry, with August seeing a year-on-year increase in dining revenue, suggesting structural opportunities for leading companies with strong compliance and quality [8] Group 4: Sector-Specific Developments - CITIC Securities indicates that the carbon fiber industry is in a recovery phase, with strong demand in wind energy and aerospace sectors, recommending attention to high-quality companies with international exposure [9] - China Galaxy Securities observes a slight increase in cement prices due to seasonal demand, with expectations for further price support from rising coal prices [11][12] - China Galaxy Securities also reports positive signals in panel procurement ahead of the overseas promotional season, indicating a potential peak in TV demand [13] Group 5: Electronic Materials - Huatai Securities emphasizes the importance of electronic cloth in the PCB-CCL supply chain, predicting a supply shortage for various specialty electronic cloth products until 2026, and recommends companies with rapid capacity expansion [14][15]
智昇黄金原油分析:分歧明显存在 黄金上涨不歇
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-24 09:10
黄金方面:今年黄金已上涨超44%,各国央行持续增购黄金,欧洲央行的调查数据显示,全球央行黄金 储备总量达到3.6万吨。近三年来,全球央行每年增持黄金超过1000吨,是过去十年平均水平的两倍。 本周美联储官员密集发表讲话,芝加哥联储主席格尔斯比表示,美国经济面临经济增长放缓和劳动力市 场疲软的双重压力,在降息的问题上需要保持谨慎。利率可以逐步的下调,但通胀仍高于目标,不宜激 进地降息。 来源:智昇财论 智昇研究黄金高级分析师欧文认为,近日多位美联储官员发表讲话,一部分的表述鹰派,对通胀表示担 忧,降息持谨慎态度;另一部分则呼吁降息,美联储内部分歧加大。 技术面:黄金周线月线多头趋势,不断刷新历史高点。小时图来看,黄金昨日(9月23日)晚间开始回 落,在3755美元一线获得支撑,日内继续上涨的概率大,日内上方可以先看向高点3790美元一线。 原油方面:近期,欧洲正在加大对俄罗斯能源出口的制裁,包括出口价格的下调以及通过法案提前一年 结束购买俄罗斯能源。同时,特朗普敦促欧洲尽快地停止购买俄罗斯能源,并试图切断其主要资金来 源,对印度的采购行为征收50%的关税。 今天凌晨,美国至9月19日当周API原油库存数据,录得 ...
大类资产早报-20250924
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 01:09
Report Overview - Report Title: Global Asset Market Performance - Major Asset Morning Report - Report Date: September 24, 2025 - Research Team: Macro Team of the Research Center 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report presents the performance data of various global asset markets on September 23, 2025, including 10 - year and 2 - year government bond yields of major economies, exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies, major economy stock indices, credit bond indices, stock index futures trading data, and government bond futures trading data. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Global Asset Market Performance - Bond Yields - **10 - Year Government Bond Yields**: On September 23, 2025, the 10 - year government bond yields of the US, UK, France, etc. were 4.107%, 4.679%, 3.563% respectively. The latest changes ranged from - 0.041 (US) to 0.004 (France), with weekly changes from - 0.030 (Switzerland) to 0.078 (US), monthly changes from - 0.155 (US) to 0.065 (France), and annual changes from - 0.220 (Switzerland) to 0.912 (UK) [2]. - **2 - Year Government Bond Yields**: On September 23, 2025, the 2 - year government bond yields of the US, UK, Germany, etc. were 3.570%, 3.950%, 2.019% respectively. The latest changes ranged from 0.000 (US, Japan) to 0.011 (South Korea), with weekly changes from - 0.014 (China 1Y) to 0.058 (Japan), monthly changes from - 0.012 (UK) to 0.084 (Germany), and annual changes from - 0.432 (South Korea) to 0.544 (Japan) [2]. 3.2 Global Asset Market Performance - Exchange Rates - **US Dollar against Major Emerging - Economy Currencies**: On September 23, 2025, the exchange rates of the US dollar against the Brazilian real, South African rand, etc. were 5.282, 17.245 respectively. The latest changes ranged from - 0.99% (Brazil) to 0.24% (South Korean won), with weekly changes from - 0.54% (South African rand) to 1.09% (South Korean won), monthly changes from - 2.75% (Brazil) to 0.05% (South Korean won), and annual changes from - 5.07% (Brazil) to 4.58% (South Korean won) [2]. - **Renminbi**: On September 23, 2025, the on - shore RMB, off - shore RMB, and the central parity rate were 7.113, 7.113, 7.106 respectively. The latest changes were - 0.02%, - 0.03%, - 0.07% respectively, with weekly changes of - 0.02%, 0.12%, 0.04% respectively, monthly changes of - 0.55%, - 0.56%, - 0.18% respectively, and annual changes of 0.23%, 0.18%, 0.04% respectively [2]. 3.3 Global Asset Market Performance - Stock Indices - **Major Economy Stock Indices**: On September 23, 2025, the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and NASDAQ were 6656.920, 46292.780, 22573.470 respectively. The latest changes ranged from - 0.95% (NASDAQ) to 0.59% (Mexican stock index), with weekly changes from - 0.03% (Spanish stock index) to 1.21% (German DAX), monthly changes from - 2.24% (German DAX) to 7.29% (Mexican stock index), and annual changes from 5.45% (French CAC) to 31.35% (Spanish stock index) [2]. 3.4 Global Asset Market Performance - Credit Bond Indices - **Credit Bond Indices**: The latest changes of the US investment - grade credit bond index, euro - zone investment - grade credit bond index, etc. ranged from - 0.03% (euro - zone investment - grade credit bond index) to 0.40% (emerging - economy high - yield credit bond index), with weekly changes from - 0.39% (US investment - grade credit bond index) to 0.27% (euro - zone high - yield credit bond index), monthly changes from 0.26% (euro - zone investment - grade credit bond index) to 1.61% (US investment - grade credit bond index), and annual changes from 3.66% (US investment - grade credit bond index) to 13.30% (emerging - economy high - yield credit bond index) [2][3]. 3.5 Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. were 3821.83, 4519.78, 2919.51 respectively, with changes of - 0.18%, - 0.06%, - 0.09% respectively [4]. - **Valuation**: The PE (TTM) of the CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 500 were 14.01, 11.64, 34.17 respectively, with环比 changes of 0.04, 0.07, - 0.25 respectively [4]. - **Fund Flow**: The latest values of the fund flow of A - shares, the main board, and small - and medium - sized enterprise boards were - 1566.78, - 1050.60, etc., with 5 - day average values of - 1037.14, - 806.14, etc. respectively [4]. - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volumes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, and SSE 50 were 24943.82, 6805.14, 1689.87 respectively, with环比 changes of 3728.99, 1173.65, 125.86 respectively [4]. - **Main Contract Premium/Discount**: The basis of IF, IH, and IC were - 35.98, 5.49, - 240.11 respectively, with premiums/discounts of - 0.80%, 0.19%, - 3.34% respectively [4]. 3.6 Government Bond Futures Trading Data - **Government Bond Futures**: The closing prices of T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 were 107.715, 105.625, 107.385, 105.505 respectively, with changes of 0.13%, 0.09%, 0.12%, 0.09% respectively [5]. - **Funding Rates**: The funding rates of R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M were 1.4619%, 1.5218%, 1.5620% respectively, with daily changes of - 7.00 BP, - 1.00 BP, 0.00 BP respectively [5].
罕见!黄金今年36次、美股28次,同创新高,什么信号?如何交易?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-23 11:54
动图由豆包AI「照片动起来」生成 美联储正着手降息,全球主要资产价格高歌猛进。 隔夜,英伟达对OpenAI的巨额投资再次引爆AI热潮,推动美国三大股指接连刷新高点。其中,标准普尔500指数今年第28次创下新高。 COMEX黄金价格在周一收盘在3775.10美元,创下年内第36个收盘历史新高,经通胀调整后的黄金价格已超过1980年1月的高点。今年以来,金价 累计涨幅已达约43%。 风险资产与避险资产同步攀升至历史高点,这种矛盾且罕见局面,让投资者怀疑市场"完美定价"了吗?是否已经充分反映所有利好,未来涨不动 了? 汇丰9月22日发布的《上涨,上涨,再上涨》研报指出,美国经济数据的重新加速迹象与美联储的降息构成了一个"强有力的催化剂",将继续推动 风险资产走高。 各类资产价格正呈现普遍的上涨态势。我们认为,好戏还在后头。 高盛交易员Paolo Schiavone则从市场情绪角度补充,认为当前市场弥漫着一种"货币正在贬值,持有不如消费或投资"的感觉,这也在助推资金涌 入风险资产。这种情绪迫使表现落后的基金经理不得不追逐高风险、高贝塔值的投资标的,以求在年底奖金季前跟上市场基准。 美股还有多少空间,如何交易当前行情? ...