1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating but gives individual outlooks for each agricultural product, including "oscillation", "oscillation with an upward bias", and "oscillation with a downward bias" [5][7][10] 2. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market trends of various agricultural products, including factors such as inventory changes, supply - demand relationships, weather conditions, and macro - environmental impacts. It concludes that most products will maintain an oscillatory trend in the short - to - medium term, with some showing a slight upward or downward bias [5][7][10] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: Spot inventory is decreasing, and oils and fats are oscillating narrowly. - **Logic**: The commercial inventory of three major oils has decreased, but the impact of international geopolitical issues on crude oil prices has weakened, and the supply - demand relationship in the oil market is complex. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil will all oscillate [5] 3.1.2 Protein Meals - **Viewpoint**: Weather in Argentina has drawn attention, and both soybean meal and rapeseed meal have risen slightly. - **Logic**: International soybean markets face competition, and domestic pre - holiday supply and demand are both weak. - **Outlook**: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal will oscillate [7][8] 3.1.3 Corn/Starch - **Viewpoint**: Corn purchase has restarted, and prices are oscillating within a range. - **Logic**: The fundamentals are stable, and the purchase policy provides short - term support. - **Outlook**: Corn prices will oscillate, with a possible decline before the Spring Festival and a rise after [10][11] 3.1.4 Hogs - **Viewpoint**: Sow inventory decreased in December, and the far - month futures contract has rebounded. - **Logic**: Short - term supply is abundant, and long - term supply pressure may ease. - **Outlook**: Hog prices will oscillate, with near - month contracts at a low level and far - month contracts supported by production - reduction expectations [12][13][14] 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: Positive capital sentiment continues, and rubber prices are rising. - **Logic**: Driven by overall commodity sentiment, the fundamentals have not changed significantly. - **Outlook**: In the short term, it can be treated as bullish [17][18] 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The futures price follows the upward trend of natural rubber. - **Logic**: The improvement in the supply - demand pattern of butadiene is relatively certain, but there is short - term pressure. - **Outlook**: In the short term, there is pressure and may need adjustment; in the medium term, it will oscillate with an upward bias [19][20] 3.1.7 Cotton - **Viewpoint**: The upward trend continues. - **Logic**: Domestic demand is expected to increase, and there is an expectation of a reduction in planting area. - **Outlook**: In the long term, it is expected to oscillate with an upward bias [20][21] 3.1.8 Sugar - **Viewpoint**: Sugar prices are oscillating slightly. - **Logic**: Global and domestic sugar supplies are both increasing. - **Outlook**: In the medium - to - long term, it will oscillate with a downward bias [21] 3.1.9 Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The market is dominated by capital and macro factors, and pulp futures are oscillating repeatedly. - **Logic**: The fundamentals are a mix of positives and negatives, and the market is currently driven by capital. - **Outlook**: It will oscillate with an upward bias [22] 3.1.10 Offset Paper - **Viewpoint**: Market sentiment has improved, and offset paper is performing strongly. - **Logic**: Paper mills have raised prices, and the market sentiment has warmed up. - **Outlook**: In the short term, it will oscillate with an upward bias [23][24] 3.1.11 Logs - **Viewpoint**: There are no significant contradictions, and it is recommended to operate within a range. - **Logic**: The market is in a state of weak supply and demand before the Spring Festival, and there is support at certain price levels. - **Outlook**: From January to February, supply pressure will ease marginally, and logs will mainly oscillate within a range [25] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - The report lists the data monitoring of various varieties, including oils and fats, protein meals, corn, starch, hogs, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, offset paper, and logs, but does not provide specific data analysis content [26][45][58] 3.3 Commodity Index - On January 6, 2026, the comprehensive index, the commodity 20 index, and the industrial products index all showed an upward trend. The agricultural product index also had a positive performance, with a daily increase of 0.70%, a 5 - day increase of 0.73%, a 1 - month increase of 0.78%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.70% [184][186]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global sugar market is in a state of oversupply, but concerns about a decline in Guangxi sugar production may support domestic sugar prices. Zheng sugar short - positions are advised to exit and wait and see [3]. - The supply pressure of pulp is gradually easing, and the cost of new warehouse receipts is rising, which is expected to drive up the bottom of the futures price. However, due to high inventory and weak paper mill profits, it is difficult to form a trending upward market in the short term. Short - term operations can consider long - positions at low levels in the range [3][4]. - The spot price of offset paper remains stable, and the futures price may fluctuate with the basis. As the basis narrows, the upward space of the futures price may be limited. Consider short - positions near the pressure level [5][6]. - The global cotton supply is abundant, and the domestic cotton market is a game between strong expectations and weak reality. The short - term supply is sufficient, but there is a long - term support due to the expected decline in planting area. It is recommended to hold long - positions in the 05 contract cautiously [9]. - The apple 05 contract is facing a game between supply decline and the off - season of consumption, maintaining a high - level range expectation. It is recommended to adopt the idea of buying on dips [10]. - The market's expectation of a decline in jujube production has cooled, and the consumption season is approaching. Aggressive investors can consider short - term long - positions in the 2609 contract near 8900 - 9000 points [11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Plate Strategy Recommendation - **Apple 2605**: Recommend buying on dips. The new - season output, good - fruit rate, and peak value have declined year - on - year, but the driving force for consumption growth is insufficient. The support range is 8800 - 8900, and the pressure range is 10000 - 10200 [20]. - **Jujube 2605**: Recommend short - term long - positions at low levels. The expectation of production decline may be gradually reflected in the far - month contracts. The support range is 8500 - 8600, and the pressure range is 9500 - 9800 [20]. - **Sugar 2605**: Recommend temporary waiting and seeing. The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic sugar - cane pressing season is underway. The market is worried about the decline in production and sugar - making rate this season, weakening short - position confidence. The support range is 5000 - 5030, and the pressure range is 5300 - 5330 [20]. - **Pulp 2605**: Recommend long - positions in the range. The futures price has risen above the price of the main physical delivery product, increasing potential delivery pressure. There is limited improvement in the fundamentals, but there is support below. The support range is 5300 - 5400, and the pressure range is 5600 - 5800 [20]. - **Offset Paper 2605**: Recommend temporary waiting and seeing. Raw material fluctuations affect the price of offset paper from the cost side, but the spot price is stable, and the futures price may operate within a range. The support range is 3900 - 4000, and the pressure range is 4200 - 4300 [20]. - **Cotton 2605**: Recommend holding long - positions cautiously. The external market is operating at a low level, the domestic market expectation is positive, and the long - term bullish expectation is strong. The futures price is expected to move up. The support range is 13500 - 13600, and the pressure range is 15400 - 15500 [20]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes 3.2.1 Apple Market - **Fundamental Information**: In November 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 121,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.28% and a year - on - year increase of 12.42%. As of December 25, 2025, the inventory of apple cold storage in the main producing areas was 7.021 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 106,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 857,800 tons [21]. - **Spot Market Situation**: The price of late - maturing bagged Fuji in Shandong is stable, and the overall shipment has slightly increased. The price of bagged Fuji 65 - 70 in Qixia is 2.0 - 2.2 yuan per catty. The price in Shaanxi is also stable, and the trading volume of cold - storage merchants has increased. The price of bagged Fuji 70 in Luochuan is 3.8 - 4.2 yuan per catty. The arrival volume in the sales area has slightly decreased, and the price is stable [21][22][23]. 3.2.2 Jujube Market As of one week before New Year's Day, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 15,898 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.30% and a year - on - year increase of 37.17%. The acquisition in Xinjiang is coming to an end, and the market supply is increasing. The overall sales in the sales area are stable, showing a pattern of "overall stability and local dynamic adjustment" [24]. 3.2.3 Sugar Market As of December 31, 2025, the sugar - cane crushing volume in India was 133.921 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 24%, and the sugar production was 11.83 million tons. From the beginning of the 2025/26 season to December 27, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume in Thailand was 14.0733 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.71%, and the sugar production was 1.2793 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.83%. As of December, the cumulative sugar production in Guangdong was 86,600 tons, and the sugar - making rate was 8.72%. India's domestic sugar sales quota in January 2026 was 2.2 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons compared with January 2025 [27]. 3.2.4 Pulp Market In November 2025, the total import volume of pulp was 3.246 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.0% and a year - on - year increase of 15.9%. The total export volume of Brazilian hardwood pulp was 1.6206 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.7% and a year - on - year increase of 7.0%. The export volume to China was 636,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.7% [29]. 3.2.5 Offset Paper Market The inventory days of offset paper increased by 0.76% compared with last Thursday, and the increase rate narrowed by 0.93 percentage points. The social demand is still weak, and the inventory pressure has increased. The operating rate is 55.24%, a month - on - month increase of 1.02 percentage points, and the increase rate expanded by 0.23 percentage points [30]. 3.2.6 Cotton Market The sowing progress in the Argentine cotton area has reached about 90%, and the final planting area is estimated to be between 380,000 and 430,000 hectares. The new - cotton planting progress in Brazil is about 25%, basically the same as the same period last year, and the final sown area is expected to be between 2.05 million and 2.1 million hectares. As of now this year, the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) has cumulatively purchased about 2.85 million tons of seed cotton, accounting for about 20% of the total estimated output [31]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review 3.3.1 Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2605 | 9547 | 427 | 4.68% | | Jujube 2605 | 8955 | - 10 | - 0.11% | | Sugar 2605 | 5257 | 6 | 0.11% | | Pulp 2605 | 5530 | - 2 | - 0.04% | | Cotton 2605 | 14655 | 70 | 0.48% | [32] 3.3.2 Spot Market Review | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan per catty) | 4.45 | 0.00 | 0.45 | | Jujube (yuan per kilogram) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | Sugar (yuan per ton) | 5330 | - 20 | - 710 | | Pulp (Shandong Yinxing) | 5580 | 0 | - 870 | | Offset Paper (Taiyang Tianyang - Tianjin) | 4450 | 0 | - 500 | | Cotton (yuan per ton) | 15615 | 30 | 888 | [39] 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific data summary provided, only figures are mentioned, such as the basis of Apple 5 - month contract, Jujube main contract, etc. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - Monthly Spread Situation | Variety | Spread | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Prediction | Recommended Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 5 - 10 | 1026 | - 30 | 1313 | Oscillating strongly | Buying on dips | | Jujube | 9 - 1 | - 45 | 145 | - 710 | Range - bound | Waiting and seeing | | Sugar | 1 - 5 | 21 | 8 | - 39 | Oscillating | Waiting and seeing | | Cotton | 5 - 9 | - 190 | - 15 | - 25 | Oscillating weakly | Selling on rallies | [57] 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Position Situation No specific data summary provided, only figures about the top 20 long - positions, short - positions, trading volume, etc. of each variety are mentioned. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Quantity | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Jujube | 2102 | - 18 | 148 | | Sugar | 6005 | 823 | - 4775 | | Pulp | 115576 | 11089 | - 224540 | | Cotton | 6118 | 406 | 2531 | [83] 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - Related Data No specific data summary provided, only figures about option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, historical volatility, etc. of apple, sugar, and cotton are mentioned.

Report Summary 1. Hot News - On Thursday, the main palladium futures contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange hit the daily limit again, and the main platinum futures contract nearly hit the limit. Starting from the trading session on December 23, 2025, non - futures company members or clients are restricted to a maximum daily opening position of 500 lots for platinum and palladium futures contracts respectively. Also, from the trading session on December 22, the minimum opening order quantity for polysilicon futures contracts is adjusted from 1 lot to 5 lots [3] - China has re - implemented export license management for steel after 16 years, aiming to strengthen monitoring, statistical analysis, and quality tracking of steel product exports. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Commerce has approved some general export license applications for rare earths. China strongly opposes the EU's recent investigations under the Foreign Subsidies Regulation (FSR) and will take necessary measures [3] - A giant undersea gold mine, the only one in China and the largest in Asia, has been discovered in the northern waters of Sanshandao, Laizhou, Shandong. The city's total proven gold reserves exceed 3,900 tons, accounting for about 26% of the country's total, ranking first in both reserves and production nationwide [3] - At the "2025 Annual Conference of the Photovoltaic Industry", Yang Xudong, Director of the Department of Electronic Information of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, stated that the photovoltaic industry governance will enter a critical stage in 2026, with further capacity regulation to achieve dynamic balance. The China Photovoltaic Industry Association did not predict the next - year's new installed capacity [3] - The US core CPI in November 2025 rose 2.6% year - on - year, the slowest pace since early 2021 and lower than the market expectation of 3%. The overall CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year, lower than the expected 3.1%. However, the reliability of this inflation report is questioned due to the serious interference of the federal government shutdown in data collection [4] 2. Key Focus - The key commodities to focus on are urea, Shanghai copper, palladium, plastic, and asphalt [5] 3. Night - session Performance - The night - session price changes of different commodity futures sectors are as follows: non - metallic building materials 2.42%, precious metals 33.32%, oilseeds and oils 8.49%, soft commodities 3.33%, non - ferrous metals 23.90%, coal, coke, and steel ore 10.87%, energy 2.51%, chemicals 10.29%, grains 1.27%, and agricultural and sideline products 3.60% [5] 4. Major Asset Performance - **Equity**: The daily, monthly, and annual percentage changes for various stock indices are provided. For example, the Shanghai Composite Index had a daily increase of 0.16%, a monthly decrease of 0.31%, and an annual increase of 15.65%. Other indices like S&P 500, Hang Seng Index, etc., also have their respective performance data [7] - **Fixed - income**: The performance of 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures is presented, including daily, monthly, and annual percentage changes [7] - **Commodity**: The performance of CRB commodity index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, and Wind commodity index is shown, with daily, monthly, and annual percentage changes [7] - **Other**: The performance of the US dollar index and CBOE volatility index is given, including their daily, monthly, and annual percentage changes [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The overall outlook for the agricultural industry is mostly "oscillating weakly," with some exceptions like paper pulp having an "oscillating upward" outlook [7][9][10][11][13][16][18][20][22][25]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple agricultural products, including their current market conditions, supply - demand dynamics, and future outlooks. The market is influenced by factors such as seasonal changes, policy adjustments, international trade, and weather conditions. Each product has its own unique set of drivers and challenges, leading to different price trends and investment opportunities [7][9][10][13][16][18][20][21][22][25]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: Continued to run weakly yesterday. Due to concerns about the slowdown of US soybean export demand and the continuous expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest, US soybeans and soybean oil fell on Tuesday, and domestic oils and fats continued to oscillate weakly yesterday [7]. - **Logic**: From a macro - environment perspective, the US November non - farm employment was better than expected, the US dollar oscillated and closed down on Tuesday but showed a pattern of first decline and then rise; crude oil prices continued to fall due to concerns about supply - demand surplus. From an industrial perspective, Brazilian soybean planting is nearing completion, and Argentine soybean planting is nearly 60% complete, with a continuous expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest. There is uncertainty in US soybean demand. Recently, domestic soybean inventory is high, and the soybean crushing volume of oil mills is large, so the domestic soybean oil destocking speed is expected to be slow. For palm oil, the production and demand data of Malaysian palm oil in the first half of December are still bearish, but the probability of a return to the palm oil production reduction season and inventory reduction in the producing areas is high; Indonesian palm oil inventory remains low; Indian vegetable oil imports may decline seasonally. For rapeseed oil, the domestic rapeseed supply is currently tight, and the rapeseed oil inventory continues to decline, but the domestic rapeseed oil supply is expected to increase later [7]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are all expected to oscillate weakly. The oils and fats market is currently facing a game of multiple factors, and the market sentiment is weak recently [7]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **View**: With continuous state - reserve auctions, double meals (soybean meal and rapeseed meal) may oscillate weakly [9]. - **Logic**: Internationally, Brazilian soybean sowing is 97% complete, and Argentine soybean sowing is over half. Argentina is accelerating the sales of new crops due to the reduction of export tariffs. In the US, the November soybean crushing volume decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. Domestically, in the short term, the third state - reserve imported soybean auction will be held on Friday, and the spot price of soybean meal has been slightly adjusted down. In the medium term, the progress of January soybean purchases is 88%, and the uncertainty of Australian rapeseed import and crushing increases the volatility of rapeseed meal. In the long term, whether the South American weather is normal determines the price trend and amplitude of soybean meal [9]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans are expected to oscillate, while domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate weakly [9]. 3.3 Corn/Starch - **View**: With multiple factors at play, the market is in a stalemate [10]. - **Logic**: Domestic corn prices showed a mixed trend today. Recently, due to news of regulatory reserve auctions and the market reaching a high - level integer mark, the market sentiment has turned, and the futures price has fallen. Affected by this, the upstream's reluctance to sell has loosened, and the market's grain supply has increased. Enterprises are mostly adopting a wait - and - see policy. In the South, the supply - demand contradiction is expected to ease in the next two weeks, and the price is expected to continue to decline in the short term. However, there may be support from inventory - building demand after the price correction [10][11]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating weakly. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term [10][11]. 3.4 Live Pigs - **View**: As stocking begins, demand drives a rebound [13]. - **Logic**: As the Winter Solstice approaches, downstream stocking has gradually started, driving a short - term rebound in pig prices. However, the supply pressure still exists. In the short term, the second - fattened large pigs are starting to be slaughtered in December. In the medium term, the number of commercial pigs to be slaughtered is expected to be in excess until April 2026. In the long term, the sow capacity began to decline in the third quarter of 2025, and it is expected that the supply pressure of commercial pigs will gradually ease after May 2026 [13]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating weakly. The near - term contracts are expected to run in a weak range, while the far - term contracts are supported by the expectation of capacity reduction [13]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: Pay attention to the strength of the short - term pressure level [14]. - **Logic**: Yesterday, natural rubber rose following the strong commodity atmosphere and the sharp rise of synthetic rubber. It is currently near the short - term high - range pressure level. The price increase was driven by geopolitical news and the overall commodity rebound, but there is no strong driving force, and it still maintains a range - bound oscillation. Fundamentally, overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and raw material prices are firm but may face a decline later. The demand side is weak [16]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals have limited variables, and the rubber price is expected to continue to oscillate, with no obvious trend in the short term [16]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: Bullish sentiment remains strong [17]. - **Logic**: The BR futures continued to rise yesterday. The market is favored by funds due to the marginal improvement of butadiene fundamentals and the relatively low absolute price of BR. The butadiene price oscillated last week, and although there is still sufficient supply, the short - term downstream synthetic rubber spot and futures prices are strong, and the market demand has certain support [18]. - **Outlook**: The futures are expected to oscillate upward in the short term, and attention should be paid to the high - level resistance in late October [18]. 3.7 Cotton - **View**: Policy - related news boosts cotton prices [18]. - **Logic**: In terms of supply, the Xinjiang cotton production in the 2025/2026 season is expected to increase year - on - year, and the supply is increasing. The demand is seasonally weakening, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has decreased. The commercial inventory of cotton is increasing, but the inventory - building speed is lower than expected, which is beneficial to cotton prices. The market expects a significant reduction in the Xinjiang cotton planting area next year, attracting capital inflows, but the actual policy implementation is uncertain [18]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, prices are pushed up by sentiment, and there is a risk of correction; in the long term, the valuation is low, and it is expected to oscillate upward [18]. 3.8 Sugar - **View**: The increasing supply pressure puts downward pressure on sugar prices [20]. - **Logic**: In the medium - to - long term, the global sugar supply is expected to shift from tight to loose in the 2025/2026 season, with expected increases in production in major producing countries. The Brazilian sugar production has passed its peak, and the market's focus is shifting to the Northern Hemisphere. As the supply increases, the pressure on sugar prices is increasing [20]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating weakly in the medium - to - long term due to the expected supply surplus [20]. 3.9 Paper Pulp - **View**: Futures oscillate, and spot prices continue to fall [20]. - **Logic**: Recently, paper pulp futures have been oscillating at a relatively high level. There are both bullish and bearish factors. Bullish factors include the rising price of broad - leaf pulp, supply reduction expectations due to mill shutdowns, and relatively high actual demand. Bearish factors include difficulties in cost transfer for downstream paper products and seasonal demand decline [21]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating upward. Bullish news raises the bottom, but there is still hedging pressure from the top [22]. 3.10 Double - Glued Paper - **View**: The market is mainly driven by rigid demand, and paper prices run stably [22]. - **Logic**: The cost support from the upstream wood pulp market is general. The downstream social orders are not strong, and most dealers maintain stable prices. The market lacks upward and downward driving forces in the short term. In the future, there is a plan to resume production for some shutdown production lines in Shandong, and the supply pressure still exists [22]. - **Outlook**: The price of double - glued paper is expected to run weakly and stably, supported by publisher pick - up and paper mill costs but with a pessimistic medium - term demand outlook [22]. 3.11 Logs - **View**: The supply pressure is gradually easing, and logs are mainly running stably [25]. - **Logic**: The supply - side pressure is gradually alleviating. Some companies are clearing inventory at the end of the year, which has increased the port's outbound volume. The overseas shipping cost has decreased, and domestic traders are still taking normal deliveries. Some local processing plants have taken early holidays, and the spot price is expected to be stable in the short term. The futures market is under pressure, but the low - valued near - term contracts have certain support [25]. - **Outlook**: The log market will continue to be in a loose pattern. There is little room for near - term contracts to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to reverse - spread or low - buying opportunities for far - term contracts [25].

Group 1: Hot News - The US Trade Representative's Office extended the tariff exemptions on China's technology transfer and intellectual property issues until November 10, 2026, which were originally set to expire on November 29, 2025 [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission will continue to address disorderly price competition among enterprises to maintain market price order [2] - From January to October 2025, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China reached 5950.29 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%, but in October, the profits decreased by 5.5% year - on - year [2] - The State Administration for Market Regulation will strengthen anti - monopoly law enforcement in key areas and fair competition reviews [2] - Russian President Putin said the US peace plan could be the basis for a Ukraine agreement, and the US delegation will visit Moscow next week [3] Group 2: Sector Performance - Key sectors to watch include lithium carbonate, coke, coking coal, Shanghai copper, and Shanghai gold [4] - Night - trading performance shows that different commodity futures sectors had varying degrees of price changes, with precious metals up 30.01%, non - metallic building materials up 3.02%, and so on [4] Group 3: Sector Positions - The chart shows the changes in commodity futures sector positions in the past five days, with different trends for each sector [5] Group 4: Performance of Major Asset Classes - In the equity market, the Shanghai Composite Index had a daily increase of 0.29%, a monthly decrease of 2.01%, and a yearly increase of 15.62%. Other indices also had their respective performance [6] - In the fixed - income market, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures all had negative returns to varying degrees [6] - In the commodity market, the CRB commodity index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, and the Wind commodity index had different price changes [6] - Other assets such as the US dollar index and CBOE volatility index also showed their own trends [6]

Group 1: Glass Market Analysis - The glass market has experienced several bullish trends over the past five years, with notable surges in April 2020, January 2022, November 2022, June 2023, April 2024, September 2024, and June 2025 [2] - Recent market dynamics indicate a significant increase in short positions, suggesting a challenging environment for a rapid reversal in market trends [7] - Current market conditions reflect a strong inventory pressure, leading to increased short positions in the futures market, which complicates the outlook for price recovery [6][7] Group 2: Lithium Carbonate Market Insights - Lithium carbonate futures have surged to a high of 88,000 yuan, with a cumulative increase of over 20% since mid-October [8][9] - Demand for lithium carbonate is driven by a significant increase in orders from battery manufacturers, particularly in the energy storage sector, which has seen a rapid rise in consumption [9][11] - Despite high production levels, the market remains hot, with weekly production reaching historical highs, indicating a robust supply-demand balance [11][12] Group 3: Silver Market Dynamics - After a month of stagnation, silver prices have surged, with spot silver prices approaching $50, driven more by financial attributes than industrial demand [13][15] - The market is experiencing a "non-traditional squeeze," with significant movements in inventory across major exchanges, indicating unresolved supply-demand imbalances [14] - The silver leasing rate remains elevated, suggesting ongoing risks of a squeeze, with market participants awaiting developments in December [15] Group 4: Chinese Stock Market Outlook - The Chinese stock market is expected to attract over 6 trillion yuan from real estate and fixed income products, indicating a significant shift in capital allocation [17][20] - Domestic investors currently have a low allocation to stocks, with only 11% of their assets in equities, suggesting substantial room for growth in stock market participation [20] - The trend of capital migration towards stocks is supported by increasing allocations from both individual and institutional investors, with notable inflows from southbound capital [29] Group 5: Futures Market Selection Criteria - The selection of futures contracts should focus on those with high trading volumes and domestic pricing power, avoiding those with low liquidity or foreign control [21][22] - Key commodities for trading include black series products like rebar and glass, which have shown significant volatility and trend continuation potential [25][39] - The analysis emphasizes the importance of identifying commodities with historical price extremes or prolonged consolidation periods, as these are likely to yield significant trading opportunities [30][31]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For the sugar market, the global supply surplus in the 2025/26 sugar season has been revised down due to potential production cuts in Brazil and India. However, Brazilian sugar production is expected to increase, and domestic sugar prices face pressure from new sugar supply. The short - term sentiment has improved, but the medium - to - long - term is still under supply surplus pressure [3]. - The pulp market is currently in a situation where the futures are strong, and the spot price has followed the increase. The cost of warehouse receipts has risen, but the supply pressure remains high, and the demand is supported by the high production of finished paper during the peak season [3]. - The double - offset paper market has limited improvement in demand during the peak season, and the supply is relatively abundant. Although the cost is supported by the increase in pulp prices, the upward driving force is weak [5]. - The cotton market is under pressure from increased production and weak consumption. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate weakly [7]. - The apple market is supported by the decline in new - season production and good fruit rate, and the inventory is decreasing year - on - year. The price of the 2605 contract is expected to remain strong [8]. - The jujube market has seen a decline in the futures price, and the market's expectation of production cuts has cooled. The inventory removal speed has slowed down, and the price is expected to be weak [9]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory First Part: Plate Strategy Recommendation - **Fresh Fruit Futures Strategy** - Apple 2605: Hold long positions cautiously. The new - season production and good fruit rate decline year - on - year, and the inventory continues to decline year - on - year, supporting the valuation. The support range is 8800 - 8900, and the pressure range is 9700 - 9800 [18]. - Jujube 2601: Exit short positions at low prices. The futures premium is high, and there is a pressure for the futures and spot prices to converge. The support range is 9400 - 9500, and the pressure range is 11000 - 11300 [18]. - **Soft Commodity Futures Strategy** - Sugar 2601: Short on rebounds. The global supply surplus pressure remains, and domestic new sugar supply increases. The support range is 5380 - 5400, and the pressure range is 5520 - 5550 [18]. - Pulp 2601: Wait and see. The cost of pulp warehouse receipts has increased, but the supply remains high, and the fundamentals have limited improvement. The support range is 4900 - 5000, and the pressure range is 5400 - 5500 [18]. - Double - offset Paper 2601: Wait and see. The cost is supported by the increase in pulp prices, but the supply is elastic, and the demand suppresses the price. The support range is 4100 - 4200, and the pressure range is 4400 - 4500 [18]. - Cotton 2601: Reduce short positions at low prices. The new - cotton production estimate is stable, and the consumption improvement is insufficient. The support range is 13200 - 13300, and the pressure range is 13700 - 13800 [18]. Second Part: Market News Changes - **Apple Market** - **Fundamental Information**: In September 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 70,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.50% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.32%. As of November 13, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas decreased year - on - year [19]. - **Spot Market Situation**: In Shandong, the purchase price outside the warehouse was stable, and the price of medium - and small - sized apples in the cold - storage increased. In Shaanxi, the cold - storage transaction increased, and the price of the same - quality fruit in the cold - storage was higher than that outside the warehouse. In other producing areas, the situation varied. The arrival volume in the sales area decreased slightly, and the sales were stable [19][20][21]. - **Jujube Market**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points increased by 2.06% month - on - month and 131.35% year - on - year. The futures price continued to fall, and the spot price followed. The market's expectation of production cuts cooled [9][22]. - **Sugar Market**: Datagro lowered the global sugar supply surplus in the 2025/26 season to 1 million tons. The Brazilian and Indian production estimates were reduced. The domestic new sugar supply increased, and the price faced pressure [3][24]. - **Pulp Market**: As of October 27, the weekly pulp inventory in sample areas decreased by 1.58% month - on - month. The domestic paper pulp import volume decreased in October, and the demand was supported by the high production of finished paper [3][26]. - **Double - offset Paper Market**: In October, the average theoretical gross profit margin of the double - offset paper industry was - 6.57%, a decrease of 1.38 percentage points from the previous month. The cost decline was narrower than the revenue decline, and the profitability continued to decline [27]. - **Cotton Market**: The import volume of cotton in Japan and Thailand changed in September, and the export volume of Cote d'Ivoire increased in October. The national cotton production estimate in November was 741.8 million tons, an increase of 0.3 million tons from October [28]. Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market Review** - Apple 2601 closed at 9504, up 297 or 3.23% [29]. - Jujube 2601 closed at 9195, down 170 or - 1.82% [29]. - Sugar 2601 closed at 5512, up 34 or 0.62% [29]. - Pulp 2511 closed at 4906, up 16 or 0.33% [29]. - Cotton 2601 closed at 13490, down 25 or - 0.18% [29]. - **Spot Market Review** - The spot price of apples was 4 yuan per catty, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year increase of 0.7 yuan [34]. - The spot price of jujubes was 9.40 yuan per kilogram, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 5.30 yuan [34]. - The spot price of sugar was 5760 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 10 yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 560 yuan [34]. - The spot price of pulp (Shandong Yinxing) was 5500 yuan, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 680 yuan [34]. - The spot price of double - offset paper (Taiyang Tianyang - Tianjin) was 4450 yuan, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 450 yuan [34]. - The spot price of cotton was 14819 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 32 yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 585 yuan [34]. Fourth Part: Basis Situation - No specific summary content provided, only relevant charts are mentioned Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - Apple 1 - 5 spread is - 34, with a month - on - month increase of 26 and a year - on - year increase of 507. It is expected to fluctuate and decline, and the recommended strategy is to short on rebounds [51]. - Jujube 9 - 1 spread is 390, with a month - on - month increase of 385 and a year - on - year increase of 275. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see [51]. - Sugar 1 - 5 spread is 79, with a month - on - month increase of 12 and a year - on - year increase of 46. It is expected to fluctuate, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see [51]. - Cotton 1 - 5 spread is - 5, with a month - on - month increase of 5 and a year - on - year increase of 60. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the recommended strategy is to short on rebounds [51]. Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation - No specific summary content provided, only relevant charts are mentioned Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - The warehouse receipt volume of apples is 0, with no month - on - month or year - on - year change [78]. - The warehouse receipt volume of jujubes is 0, with no month - on - month or year - on - year change [78]. - The warehouse receipt volume of sugar is 7721, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 5419 [78]. - The warehouse receipt volume of pulp is 221861, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 154591 [78]. - The warehouse receipt volume of cotton is 4180, a month - on - month increase of 296 and a year - on - year increase of 1736 [78]. Eighth Part: Option - related Data - No specific summary content provided, only relevant charts are mentioned

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] Core Viewpoints - Sugar is supported by supply - demand data, with seasonal consumption recovery due to summer cold - drink demand and significant increase in recent sugar imports. The impact on beet sugar production and post - typhoon sugarcane growth in main producing areas need further attention. [1][3] - Cotton has bottom - line support as commercial inventory is decreasing and the cotton textile peak season is approaching. Although some areas have good growth, the cotton price is expected to range from 14,000 to 16,000 yuan with a potential downward risk after centralized listing. [1][3] - The recommended strategy is to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach. [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - On the futures market, the U.S. sugar closed at 15.77 with a change of 1.55%, and the U.S. cotton closed at 64.19 with a change of - 0.16%. [1] - In the spot market, the Nanning sugar spot price was 5770.0 yuan, the Kunming sugar spot price was 5740.0 yuan, and the Xinjiang cotton spot price was 14500.0 yuan. [1] Supply - Demand Situation - Sugar: Driven by summer cold - drink demand, sugar consumption has a seasonal recovery, and recent sugar imports have increased significantly due to the widening domestic - foreign price difference. [1] - Cotton: In August, high temperatures and low precipitation in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin increased the risk of high - temperature heat damage to cotton. The current commercial cotton inventory is continuously decreasing, and the cotton textile peak season is coming. [1] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts were 8407.0, with a change of - 0.13%; Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts were 2598.0, with a change of - 2.07%. [2] Data Overview - **External Market Quotes**: From October 19 to 20, 2025, the U.S. sugar rose from 15.53 to 15.77 with a change of 1.55%, and the U.S. cotton fell from 64.29 to 64.19 with a change of - 0.16%. [4] - **Spot Prices**: From October 17 to 20, 2025, the Nanning and Kunming sugar prices both decreased by 0.35%, the cotton index 328 remained unchanged, and the Xinjiang cotton price remained at 14500.0 yuan. [4] - **Price Spread Overview**: There were various changes in sugar and cotton contract spreads and basis from October 19 - 20, 2025. For example, SR01 - 05 increased by 11.43%, and the cotton 09 basis decreased by 12.12%. [4] - **Import Prices**: The cotton cotlookA remained at 75.1 from October 17 - 20, 2025. [4] - **Profit Space**: The sugar import profit remained at 1567.5 from October 17 - 20, 2025. [4] - **Options**: The implied volatilities of SR601C5400, SR601P5400, CF601C13400, and CF601P13400 were 0.0763, 0.0762, 0.0791, and 0.0796 respectively. [4] - **Inventory Warehouse Receipts**: From October 17 - 20, 2025, sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 8418.0 to 8407.0 with a change of - 0.13%, and cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 2653.0 to 2598.0 with a change of - 2.07%. [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Oils and Fats: Oscillating, including soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil [5] - Protein Meals: Oscillating, covering soybean meal and rapeseed meal [5] - Corn/Starch: Oscillating [6] - Hogs: Oscillating weakly [2][8] - Natural Rubber: Oscillating [9] - Synthetic Rubber: Oscillating [11] - Cotton: Oscillating within a short - term range, with prices slightly stronger this week [12] - Sugar: Oscillating weakly [13] - Pulp: Oscillating weakly [14] - Offset Paper: Oscillating [16] - Logs: Oscillating [19] 2. Core Views of the Report - The agricultural product market shows a complex situation with different trends for various products. In the short - term, some products are affected by factors such as supply and demand, weather, and policies, while in the long - term, factors like production capacity changes and consumption trends play important roles. For example, the hog market is in a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern, with short - term supply pressure but potential relief in the second half of 2026 [2][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: Continue to oscillate and consolidate, waiting for further information guidance. The market is affected by both macro and industrial factors. Macro factors include the US government "shutdown", expectations of Sino - US trade negotiations, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. Industrial factors involve the suspension of US soybean data updates, expectations of lower US soybean yields, increased expected production of Brazilian new - season soybeans, and the inventory and export situations of palm oil [5]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are all expected to oscillate. The market lacks upward momentum due to factors such as the expected accumulation of Malaysian palm oil inventory, the suspension of US soybean data updates, and the smooth progress of Brazilian soybean planting [5]. 3.2 Protein Meals - **View**: Double meals are oscillating at a low level, and selling put options can be attempted. Internationally, US soybean production and exports are affected by policies, and Brazilian soybean planting is progressing smoothly. Domestically, short - term oil mill operations are increasing, and downstream inventory levels are not low. In the medium - term, Sino - US trade relations and downstream replenishment after seasonal destocking need to be monitored. In the long - term, domestic soybean meal supply is expected to be sufficient in the fourth quarter of 2025, with a possible small shortage in the first quarter of 2026 [5]. - **Outlook**: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate. The market should pay attention to the support level around 2850 - 2900, as well as weather and Sino - US trade trends. Selling out - of - the - money put options can be considered [5]. 3.3 Corn/Starch - **View**: There is a temporary shortage at ports, leading to a continuous rebound in futures and spot prices. Short - term price increases are due to factors such as bad weather, farmers' reluctance to sell, port shortages, and state - owned reserve purchases. However, the selling pressure has not been fully released, and the market is expected to be oscillating weakly in the short - term. In the long - term, the market is expected to be short - term bearish and long - term bullish [6][7]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating. If prices rebound slightly due to recent weather disturbances and inventory shortages, short - selling opportunities can be considered. In the long - term, the expectation of tight annual supply supports the idea of low - buying in the far - month contracts [7]. 3.4 Hogs - **View**: Second - fattening replenishment has diverted part of the supply pressure, leading to a rebound in hog futures and spot prices. In the short - term, consumption is in the off - season, and supply is abundant. In the medium - term, the high - level production capacity of sows in the first half of 2025 will lead to an increase in hog slaughter in the fourth quarter. In the long - term, sow production capacity is showing signs of reduction, and supply pressure is expected to ease in the second half of 2026 [8]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating weakly. Near - month contracts are under supply pressure, while far - month contracts are supported by the expectation of production capacity reduction. The hog industry presents a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern, and attention can be paid to reverse - spread strategy opportunities [2][8]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: Return to the oscillating bottom - grinding trend. The recent divergence in the trends of light and dark rubber is due to factors such as the impact of state - reserve sales on RU and the low import volume and limited warehouse receipts of NR. The raw material price of cup rubber is relatively firm, and there are still some weather disturbances in the producing areas. The demand for tires in the fourth quarter is expected to decline [9][10]. - **Outlook**: Due to high macro uncertainty, if the overall commodity performance is poor, rubber prices are expected to continue to oscillate and find the bottom [10]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The market performance is dull, with narrow - range oscillations. High production this year has been a major pressure on the market. Although downstream demand is increasing, the growth rate is lower than that of production, resulting in high social inventory. The price of butadiene, the raw material, has been fluctuating [11]. - **Outlook**: With high fundamental pressure and a lack of improvement in the raw material end, the market is expected to continue to oscillate and grind the bottom, and there is a possibility of hitting a new low for the year [11]. 3.7 Cotton - **View**: The purchase price has increased, leading to a rebound in cotton prices. The expected cotton production in Xinjiang has been adjusted downward, and the firm purchase price of seed cotton has provided cost - side support. In the short - term, the downward driving force of Zhengzhou cotton has weakened, and there is a demand for a rebound [12]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating within a short - term range, with prices slightly stronger this week. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations, and upstream enterprises are advised to hedge actively when prices are high [12]. 3.8 Sugar - **View**: Sugar prices are oscillating at a low level, with weak supply and demand. In the medium - and long - term, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 crushing season, and sugar prices are in a bearish pattern. In the short - term, Brazilian sugar production has passed its peak, but exports have increased, and domestic sales and inventory situations are not optimistic [13]. - **Outlook**: Sugar prices are expected to oscillate weakly as a whole, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [13]. 3.9 Pulp - **View**: Spot trading is light, and pulp prices are running at a low level. After the National Day, pulp futures have shown a bottom - oscillating trend. The supply and demand situation has not changed significantly, and the market is concerned about the high ratio of virtual to real pulp and the concentrated cancellation at the end of the year. However, the game sentiment for the 01 contract has weakened. In general, the pulp market is difficult to rise significantly [14]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating weakly. The market is dominated by warehouse receipts and weak supply - demand conditions, and the weakness of pulp futures is difficult to reverse [14][15]. 3.10 Offset Paper - **View**: With the approaching of tenders, offset paper prices may stabilize. The spot price center of offset paper remains stable, but the market is not active. The cost support is average, and the upcoming tenders have a pessimistic market expectation. Although the supply pressure has been alleviated to some extent, the increase in new production capacity in South China may restrict paper prices [16]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating. There is a possibility of a slight decline in spot prices in the short - term [16]. 3.11 Logs - **View**: Freight rates have increased, leading to the relatively strong operation of logs. The increase in port fees has raised the cost of some ships, affecting the price of logs. The market has been running weakly recently due to factors such as the negative impact of domestic timber delivery in Chongqing and the failure of the peak - season expectation. The inventory level is not low, and the demand in the real - estate market is weak [19]. - **Outlook**: In the next few weeks, due to the disturbance of increased port - fee costs, attention can be paid to the opportunity of buying on dips for the 01 contract. In the medium - term, attention should be paid to the progress of foreign merchants' replacement of involved ships and the risk of price decline after the relaxation of Sino - US policies [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] Core Views - Sugar consumption has seasonally recovered due to the demand for summer cold drinks, and sugar imports have increased significantly recently due to the widening price gap between domestic and foreign markets. The impact of rainfall in Inner Mongolia on sugar beet production and the growth recovery of sugarcane after typhoon damage in Guangdong and Guangxi need further attention. The strategy is to mainly wait and see [1][3] - In August, cotton in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin was at high risk of high - temperature heat damage. The current commercial cotton inventory is decreasing, and the cotton price has bottom - support as the cotton textile peak season is approaching. The cotton growth period has suitable meteorological conditions, and the picking progress in Xinjiang is 24.9% as of October 6, with the price expected to range from 14,000 to 16,000 yuan. The strategy is to mainly wait and see [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Information - Nanning sugar spot price is 5,800.0 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5,810.0 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 14,650.0 yuan [1] Disk - US sugar closed at 16.1 with a change of 0.00%. US cotton closed at 63.77 with a change of 0.00% [1] Supply and Demand - Sugar: Driven by the demand for summer cold drinks, sugar consumption has seasonally recovered, and sugar imports have increased significantly recently due to the widening price gap between domestic and foreign markets [1] - Cotton: In August, the temperature in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin was high and precipitation was low, so cotton was at high risk of high - temperature heat damage. The current commercial cotton inventory is decreasing, and the cotton price has bottom - support as the cotton textile peak season is approaching [1] Inventory Warrants - Zhengzhou sugar warrants are 8,867.0 with a change of 0.00%; Zhengzhou cotton warrants are 2,942.0 with a change of 0.00% [2] Data Quick View Outer Market Quotes - US sugar was 16.1 on October 11 and 16.1 on October 12, with a change of 0.00%. US cotton was 63.77 on October 11 and 63.77 on October 12, with a change of 0.00% [4] Spot Prices - Nanning sugar was 5,800.0 on October 10 and 5,800.0 on October 11, with a change of 0.00%. Kunming sugar was 5,820.0 on October 10 and 5,810.0 on October 11, with a change of - 0.17%. Cotton Index 328 was 3,281 on October 10 and 3,280 on October 11, with a change of 0.12%. Xinjiang cotton was 14,750.0 on October 10 and 14,650.0 on October 11, with a change of - 0.68% [4] Spread Quick View - All spreads and basis for sugar and cotton contracts from October 11 to October 12 had a change of 0.00% [4] Import Prices - Cotton cotlookA was 76.05 on October 10 and 76.05 on October 11, with a change of 0.00% [4] Profit Space - Sugar import profit was 1,459.0 on October 10 and 1,459.0 on October 11, with a change of 0.00% [4] Options - For SR601C5500, the implied volatility was 0.0827, and the historical volatility of the futures underlying SR601 was 6.63. For SR601P5500, the implied volatility was 0.0789. For CF601C13400, the implied volatility was 0.0917, and the historical volatility of the futures underlying CF601 was 7.76. For CF601P13400, the implied volatility was 0.0935 [4] Inventory Warrants - Sugar warrants were 8,867.0 on October 10 and 8,867.0 on October 11, with a change of 0.00%. Cotton warrants were 2,942.0 on October 10 and 2,942.0 on October 11, with a change of 0.00% [4] Conclusion - Sugar: In August, rainfall in Inner Mongolia was excessive, which was not conducive to the sugar accumulation and harvesting of sugar beets, and the sugar factory start - up time was postponed. The impact on sugar beet sugar production needs further tracking and evaluation. In late September and early October, sugarcane in major producing areas such as Guangdong and Guangxi was affected by typhoons, and the post - disaster growth recovery needs continuous attention [3] - Cotton: The meteorological conditions during the cotton growth period were suitable, and the yield and quality in some areas were higher than expected. As of October 6, the cotton picking progress in Xinjiang was 24.9%, 0.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The opening price of seed cotton was flat to slightly lower year - on - year, and there is a downward risk after the centralized listing. The cotton price is expected to range from 14,000 to 16,000 yuan [3] Strategy Suggestion - Wait and see mainly [3]