Core Insights - The capital market in 2025 experienced structural fluctuations, with non-ferrous metals, TMT, and power equipment being market highlights, while dividend sectors and real estate faced pressure. As 2026 approaches, structural opportunities are emerging supported by policy stabilization, corporate profit recovery, and liquidity influx [4] Group 1: Global Liquidity Improvement - The global macro environment in 2026 is expected to release positive signals, with the U.S. fiscal and monetary policies likely to trend towards easing. The "Great Beautiful Act" could lead to a long-term tax cut, potentially increasing the federal deficit by approximately $3.4 trillion over the next decade, and the debt ceiling may rise by $5 trillion (a 12% increase) [5] - A low-interest-rate environment is expected to ease global liquidity constraints, alleviating capital outflow pressures in emerging markets and creating a relatively stable external environment for A-shares [5] Group 2: Domestic Economic Recovery - Domestic policies are aligning with micro signals to create a warming effect. The Central Economic Work Conference at the end of 2025 and the 2026 Two Sessions will emphasize "seeking progress while maintaining stability and improving quality and efficiency" [6] - Industrial enterprises are currently at the bottom of the inventory cycle, with a narrowing decline in PPI indicating an approaching replenishment cycle. The cumulative year-on-year growth of net profit excluding non-recurring gains for all A-shares in Q3 2025 was 3.2%, and asset turnover rates are stabilizing [6] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to drive price recovery, leading to a positive cycle in corporate profits. Institutional investors such as insurance funds and bank wealth management are anticipated to become significant sources of incremental funds in 2026, further solidifying market liquidity [6] Group 3: Key Investment Areas for 2026 - Focus on the AI supercycle, with continued prosperity in domestic and international computing power chains. Attention should be given to new technology iterations and inflation-related sectors, particularly the gaming industry and the gradual development of smart terminals and AI applications [7] - High-end manufacturing going overseas should be monitored, especially in sectors like energy storage-lithium batteries and AI-related high-demand segments. Sustainable growth potential exists in domestic and overseas markets for heavy trucks, passenger vehicles, and construction machinery [8] - Long-term attention should be given to the revaluation of strategic resources, including precious and industrial metals. Energy and lithium carbonate show signs of bottoming out, while the chemical sector's resource products and significantly rebounding blue-chip varieties are also worth investing in [8] - Continuous monitoring of breakthroughs in frontier technologies such as robotics, solid-state batteries, controlled nuclear fusion, aerospace, and quantum computing is recommended [9] - New consumption trends and innovative pharmaceuticals are areas of interest, with solid fundamentals in emotional, service, and technology consumption. The innovative drug sector remains a long-term trend, with improved cost-effectiveness following recent declines [9] Conclusion - The equity market outlook for 2026, while facing challenges, is supported by a "triple support" system of policy stabilization, profit recovery, and liquidity influx, which may solidify the foundation for structural market trends. Investors are encouraged to align with industry trends and core logic while capturing opportunities from a long-term perspective [10]

财政部部长蓝佛安在12月27日至28日举行的全国财政工作会议上表示，明年财政将大力提 振消费。深入实施提振消费专项行动，继续安排资金支持消费品以旧换新，调整优化补贴范 围和标准。 ● 远程连冠！长安超五菱，江铃/东风翻倍涨！11月新能源轻客销量增24% | 头条 ● 全新内饰＋无极S动力链 汕德卡C9H 48V微混牵引车实车评测 ● 600度大电量充电重卡招标！ ● 中通客车发生重要人事变动！ ● 解放/重汽/东风/陕汽等最新预判来了！2026将如何发力重卡市场？| 头条 长按识别 微信视频号 rid in the ·· EN PACE 快手号 长按识别 ...

Core Insights - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive industry, emphasizing that there are opportunities despite potential challenges in 2026 [1][2] - The automotive sector showed a 20% increase over the past 12 months, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which increased by 16.8% [3] Group 1: Industry Overview - The automotive industry is expected to experience a strong performance in commercial vehicles while passenger vehicles may face challenges in 2026 [4] - The report highlights that the passenger vehicle market in 2025 was supported by trade-in policies, leading to stable performance, but anticipates pressure on total volume in 2026 [4] - The heavy truck segment is projected to see positive growth in 2026, driven by domestic demand recovery and increased exports [4] Group 2: Opportunities in Passenger Vehicles - The report identifies a significant opportunity in the high-end passenger vehicle market, particularly for models priced above 300,000 yuan, which is expected to continue to grow [4][5] - Domestic brands are anticipated to make substantial advancements in the high-end market with new models launching in 2026 [5] Group 3: Heavy Truck Market Insights - The heavy truck market is expected to benefit from a recovery in domestic demand and a favorable export environment, with wholesale volumes projected to grow positively in 2026 [4][5] - The report notes that the penetration rate of electric heavy trucks may stabilize in 2026 after significant increases in 2025, which could positively impact profitability [5] Group 4: Smart Driving and Technology - The report discusses the acceleration of high-level autonomous driving technology penetrating lower-priced models, which is expected to drive volume growth in 2026 [5] - The introduction of new AI-driven cockpit technologies is anticipated to enhance the value of smart cabins, creating additional investment opportunities in related components [5] Group 5: Robotics Sector - The report indicates that the humanoid robotics sector is entering a new phase, with significant growth potential for leading manufacturers and their supply chains [5] - The collaboration between domestic and international manufacturers is expected to enhance production capabilities and technological advancements in humanoid robots [5] Group 6: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Jianghuai Automobile, Top Group, and BYD, highlighting their potential in the evolving automotive landscape [6][9] - Specific recommendations for heavy truck manufacturers include China National Heavy Duty Truck Group and Weichai Power, which are expected to benefit from industry growth [6][9]

Core Viewpoint - The market is increasingly focused on investment opportunities for 2026 as the A-share market approaches the end of 2025, with sectors like metals, TMT, and power equipment performing well, while dividend stocks and real estate are under pressure [1] Group 1: Global Economic Environment - The global macroeconomic landscape is expected to show positive changes in 2026, with the U.S. likely to adopt more accommodative fiscal and monetary policies, potentially increasing the federal deficit by approximately $3.4 trillion over the next decade [4] - The anticipated fiscal expansion in the U.S. may require a low-interest-rate environment, which could improve global liquidity and stabilize the external environment for the A-share market [4] Group 2: Domestic Economic Policies - The Central Economic Work Conference at the end of 2025 has set a policy direction of "seeking progress while maintaining stability," indicating a focus on quality and efficiency improvements [5] - Industrial enterprises are at the bottom of the inventory cycle, with a narrowing decline in PPI suggesting an approaching recovery phase for corporate profits, as evidenced by a 3.2% year-on-year growth in net profit for all A-shares in Q3 2025 [5] Group 3: Investment Opportunities for 2026 - The A-share market is expected to remain structurally driven, with five key areas for investors to focus on: 1. AI Super Cycle: Continued growth in domestic and international computing power chains, with a focus on new technology iterations and the gaming industry [9] 2. High-end Manufacturing Overseas: Attention on sectors like energy storage and lithium batteries, as well as heavy-duty vehicles and engineering machinery that offer growth potential [11] 3. Strategic Resource Revaluation: Long-term focus on precious and industrial metals, with particular attention to energy and lithium carbonate showing signs of stabilization [11] 4. Frontier Technology Breakthroughs: Ongoing interest in industries such as robotics, solid-state batteries, and quantum computing [11] 5. New Consumption and Innovative Pharmaceuticals: Focus on sectors with solid fundamentals in consumer and technology spending, as well as innovative medical devices [11] Group 4: Market Liquidity - The degree of asset allocation migration towards equity markets is still in its early stages, with significant room for growth as indicators remain at historical lows [10] - Institutional investors, including insurance funds and bank wealth management products, are expected to become important sources of marginal capital in 2026, further enhancing market liquidity [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the valuation challenges faced by various industries in the A-share market, highlighting that despite global competitiveness, many sectors are undervalued due to market dynamics and investor behavior [1][10]. Group 1: Industry Valuations - Home Appliances: Midea (13x), Haier (12.3x), Hisense (12.73x) [1] - Engineering Machinery: Sany (23.6x), XCMG (20x), Zoomlion (17x) [2] - Forklifts: Hangcha (16x), Heli (14x) [2] - Tires: Zhongce (12x), Sailun (16x), Senqilin (14x) [2] - Heavy Trucks: China National Heavy Duty Truck (12x) [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The industries mentioned are characterized by low-frequency consumption and strong cyclicality, leading to fluctuating performance and valuations based on government subsidies and market conditions [1][2]. - The article suggests that a P/E ratio around 15x is reasonable for stable growth industries, providing a risk premium over ten-year government bonds [1][2]. Group 3: Investment Behavior - Institutional investors hold significant pricing power in these markets, making it challenging for individual investors to influence valuations [1][2]. - The article emphasizes that high expectations can lead to investment disasters, and that long-term returns may be better for established companies despite their low valuations [3][10]. Group 4: Valuation as an Incentive Mechanism - Valuation is described as an incentive mechanism that reflects market competition and societal evolution, where higher valuations encourage innovation and investment in growth sectors like technology [4][5][6]. - Conversely, traditional industries with stable earnings often receive lower valuations due to a lack of societal encouragement for new investments [7][10]. Group 5: Global Comparisons - The article notes that mature manufacturing companies globally, such as Toyota and Caterpillar, also exhibit low valuation multiples, indicating a broader trend beyond the A-share market [14][15][16].

12月22日，格隆汇在线上举办"科技赋能·资本破局"分享会。本次分享会，备受瞩目的卓越公司评选榜单将隆重揭晓，其中格隆汇"金格奖"年度卓越公司评选 中，中国重汽(03808.HK)荣获"年度ESG先锋奖"奖项。 在社会责任维度，中国重汽全方位践行企业担当。对内，公司高度关注员工成长与权益保障，通过搭建培训体系，完善激励机制为员工提供发展平台；对 外，公司积极投身社会公益，通过参与乡村振兴帮扶、开展慈善捐赠等行动，将企业发展成果转化为社会效益，彰显大企业的责任担当。 在公司治理维 度，中国重汽持续完善治理体系。通过优化治理架构、明确权责边界、强化监督机制等举措，不断提升企业可持续竞争力，为业务长期稳定增长、实现高质 量发展筑牢制度保障。 "年度ESG先锋奖"旨在寻找经济效能与社会责任并重的绿色企业与先进企业。该奖项是对公司在环境(Environmental)、社会(Social)、公司治理(Governance) 三方面工作的高度认可，获奖公司在其推广ESG理念、追求高质量可持续发展上均做出了突出贡献。本次评选通过定量数据分析和专家评审团等方式得出最 终结果。 作为中国重卡行业的领军者，中国重汽(03808.H ...

Valuation Summary - The overall valuation of A-shares as of December 19, 2025, shows the CSI All Share Index (excluding ST stocks) with a PE of 21.1 times and a PB of 1.8 times, positioned at the 77th and 39th historical percentiles respectively [2][5] - The Shanghai Composite Index has a PE of 11.7 times and a PB of 1.3 times, at the 61st and 40th historical percentiles [2][5] - The CSI 300 Index has a PE of 14 times and a PB of 1.5 times, at the 62nd and 34th historical percentiles [2][5] - The ChiNext Index has a PE of 39.9 times and a PB of 5.4 times, at the 32nd and 61st historical percentiles [2][5] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the 85th historical percentile include Real Estate, Retail, and IT Services (Software Development) [2] - Industries with PB valuations above the 85th historical percentile include Electronics (Semiconductors) and Communications [2] - The Medical Services industry has both PE and PB valuations below the 15th historical percentile [2] Industry Economic Tracking New Energy - The photovoltaic industry chain prices remained stable, with battery cell spot prices rebounding by 8.1% [2] - The price of polysilicon futures increased by 6.4%, while the price of lithium carbonate rose by 7.4% [2] - Concerns about tightening lithium supply emerged due to local mining permit cancellations [2] Real Estate Chain - The average sales area of commercial housing in China from January to November 2025 decreased by 7.8% year-on-year, with a notable decline in real estate investment by 15.9% [3] - The price of rebar increased by 1.2%, while iron ore prices rose by 1.6% [3] Consumer Sector - The average price of live pigs increased by 0.9%, while the wholesale price of pork rose by 0.2% [3] - Retail sales from January to November 2025 grew by 4.0% year-on-year, showing a slight decline in growth rate compared to the previous ten months [3] Midstream Manufacturing - Manufacturing investment from January to November 2025 increased by 1.9% year-on-year, while infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 1.1% [3] - Heavy truck sales in November 2025 surged by 65.4% year-on-year, with new energy heavy trucks seeing a significant increase in sales [3] Technology TMT - The production of integrated circuits and optoelectronic devices in China increased by 10.6% and 9.7% year-on-year respectively [3] Commodities - The price of Brent crude oil futures fell by 1.1% to $60.55 per barrel, amid rising supply pressures [3] - The price of thermal coal decreased by 5.6%, while coking coal prices rose by 0.5% [3]

来源：源达 投资要点 资讯要闻 2025年前十一个月社会融资规模增量累计为33.39万亿元，比上年同期多3.99万亿元。前十一个月人民币 贷款增加15.36万亿元。11月末，广义货币（M2）余额336.99万亿元，同比增长8%。狭义货币（M1） 余额112.89万亿元，同比增长4.9%。流通中货币（M0）余额13.74万亿元，同比增长10.6%。 12月14日，商务部、中国人民银行、金融监管总局联合印发《关于加强商务和金融协同更大力度提振消 费的通知》，聚焦消费重点领域加大支持力度，形成提振和扩大消费的更大工作合力。 12月18日，海南自由贸易港正式启动全岛封关，海南全岛8个对外开放口岸及10个"二线口岸"监管设施 悉数启用，标志着3万多平方公里的海南岛，正式成为海关监管特殊区域。 12月15日，国家统计局数据显示，11月份，一线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比下降0.4%，降幅比上 月扩大0.1个百分点。同比下降1.2%，降幅比上月扩大0.4个百分点。 12月19日，日本央行将政策利率上调0.25个百分点至0.75%，创下自1995年9月以来的最高水平。 市场概览 国内证券市场主要指数表现不佳，其中上证50涨幅 ...

Macro Strategy - The report highlights that export control measures on key metals have become a crucial advantage for China in the geopolitical competition with major economies like the US and EU. This advantage is rooted in China's resource superiority and a complete industrial system that is difficult for developed economies to replicate in the short term [10][11]. - China leads in the production of 30 out of 44 key minerals, with significant advantages in rare earths, gallium, germanium, and antimony. For instance, China holds nearly half of the world's rare earth reserves and dominates the processing technology, with a 92% global market share in high-performance neodymium-iron-boron magnets [10][11]. Fixed Income - The report indicates that the bond market is influenced by recent important meetings, with a shift in sentiment following the Central Political Bureau and Central Economic Work Conference. The 10-year government bond yield rose from 1.8285% to 1.8425% during the week, reflecting market reactions to policy expectations [12][13]. - The issuance of green bonds saw a significant increase, with 29 new bonds issued totaling approximately 36.75 billion yuan, up 16.01 billion yuan from the previous week. The secondary market saw a total transaction volume of 64.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.7 billion yuan [16]. Industry - The automotive industry is at a pivotal point in 2025, with expectations for electric vehicle penetration to reach 50%-80% over the next three years. Major players in intelligent driving have successfully implemented complex scenarios in urban environments, enhancing user experience [21]. - The report evaluates the intelligent driving experiences of seven major manufacturers, noting that Huawei and Xiaopeng lead in handling complex scenarios, while the gap in capabilities among manufacturers is narrowing compared to earlier quarters [21].

Core Insights - The heavy truck industry in November met the expectations of Dongwu Securities for domestic sales, while wholesale and export figures exceeded expectations [1] - The total inventory coefficient for the industry in November was calculated at 1.8, indicating a reasonable level [1] - The company forecasts that wholesale sales of heavy trucks will reach approximately 115,000 units by December 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 40% [1] Sales Performance - November production of heavy trucks was 114,000 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 84.4% and a month-on-month increase of 9.8% [1] - Heavy truck wholesale sales in November reached 113,000 units, with year-on-year growth of 65.4% and month-on-month growth of 6.6% [1] - The terminal sales of heavy trucks in November were 77,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34.3% and a month-on-month increase of 9.6% [1] - Exports of heavy trucks in November totaled 33,000 units, with year-on-year growth of 44.0% and a month-on-month increase of 0.7% [1] - The overall industry inventory increased by 4,200 units in November, with corporate inventory rising by 800 units and channel inventory increasing by 3,400 units [1] Industry Structure - In terms of usage, engineering vehicles outperformed logistics vehicles in November, with terminal sales of engineering vehicles at 8,500 units, showing year-on-year growth of 41.2% and month-on-month growth of 13.1% [2] - Logistics vehicle sales were 68,200 units, with year-on-year growth of 33.5% and month-on-month growth of 8.9% [2] - The penetration rate of natural gas heavy trucks in November was 25.3%, with a year-on-year increase of 5.38 percentage points [2] Market Share - In November, the domestic market share for terminal sales was led by Jiefang (21.1%), Dongfeng (18.0%), and others, with slight changes compared to the previous year [3] - For exports, Jiefang held a market share of 21.2%, showing an increase compared to the previous year [3] - Weichai maintained the highest market share in the engine segment at 17.4%, despite a decline compared to the previous year [4] - In November, Weichai's terminal matching volume was 13,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 11.8% [4]