本文来自格隆汇专栏：国泰海通证券研究；作者：刘一鸣、张予名 报告导读：总量上看，8月国产重卡销量9.2万台，同比增长47%，环比增长8%。聚焦天然气重卡，8月 国产天然气重卡销量1.6万台，同比增长32%，环比增长30%。 风险提示：经济发展不及预期，原材料价格大幅上涨。 注：以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的研究报告《8月重卡同比五连增，天然气迎来复苏》；报告 作者： 刘一鸣 S0880525040050，张予名 S0880125042241 总量上看，8月国产重卡销量9.2万台，同比增长47%，环比增长8%。1-8月国产重卡累计销量71.6万台， 同比增长15%。我们认为，8月重卡总量的维持较高增长，一是去年同期基数较低，二是从五月中下旬 直至八月，"以旧换新"政策对重卡新车市场保持了较为稳定的促进作用，进而推动了重卡行业连续五个 月的同比快速增长。其中，电动重卡高歌猛进，同比继续呈现爆发式增长；天然气重卡逆转颓势，在连 续五个月同比下滑后迎来了复苏。 从销量结构上看，2025年8月半挂牵引车/载货车/非完整车辆销量占重卡整体的比例分别为 50.6%/27.8%/21.7%，此前2024年为51.9%/2 ...

智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，随着经济恢复，以及2025年重卡"以旧换新"政策的推出，国 产重卡销量有望逐渐回升，预计2025年销量为106.7万台，同比增长18%。近年来，国产新能源重卡技 术逐渐成熟，成本快速下降，预计国内新能源渗透率有比较大的提升空间，预计2025年渗透率将达到 15%。重卡行业的成长空间仍然存在，具体体现在国内的景气度修复，以及出口的持续成长。此外随着 天然气重卡的发展，行业门槛提升有望带动头部企业盈利能力提升。 聚焦天然气重卡，8月国产天然气重卡销量1.6万台，同比增长32%，环比增长30%。1-8月国产天然气 重卡累计销量11.6万台，同比下滑9%。天然气半挂牵引车：8月国产天然气半挂牵引车销量1.5万台，同 比增长33%，环比增长32%。1-8月国产天然气半挂牵引车累计销量11.2万台，同比下滑10%。8月重卡 的天然气渗透率为17%，半挂牵引车的天然气渗透率为32%。根据对重卡全生命周期成本的测算，对于 年度平均行驶里程大于15万公里的牵引车而言，大部分时间段使用天然气是较为经济的。在大规模设备 更新政策的推动下，天然气重卡作为使用成本较低的设备，其渗透率有望进一步提 ...

消息面上，据第一商用车网数据，8月重卡批发销量达到约8.7万辆，同比大增约40%，环比7月上涨 2%，仅次于2020年8月的13万辆，是近八年来同期的第二高位。开源证券认为，终端重卡销量在行业传 统淡季的8月份的同比增速约50%，体现了重卡销量受政策催化的敏感性，充分体现"以旧换新"政策对 重卡销量的显著拉动作用.随着金九银十的到来，以及年底政策申请时间逐步紧迫，销量将有望迎来下 一波小高潮。 中信建投（601066）指出，目前重卡补贴政策在全国范围内基本落地完毕，Q3终端需求有望继续扩 张，释放批发端销量弹性，叠加上年基数偏低，同比增速有望进一步上行。全年来看补贴有望撬动10- 15万台增量，行业年销或可达100-105万台，实现双位数增长；重汽A在海外市场借助重汽国际公司的 完善网络布局以及高效战略突破，出口有望维持较高水平。整体看，中国重汽作为行业龙头，Q3内 销、出口有望共振向上，实现业绩、估值双提升。 中国重汽（000951）(03808)午后涨超5%，截至发稿，涨5.13%，报22.12港元，成交额1.37亿港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The motorcycle industry is experiencing significant growth, particularly in the sales of larger displacement motorcycles, with a notable increase in year-on-year sales figures for August 2025 [2][4]. August Data Observation - For motorcycles with displacement over 250cc, August sales reached 84,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 23.6% but a month-on-month decrease of 4.4%. Cumulative sales from January to August totaled 675,000 units, up 36.0% year-on-year [2]. - In the 250ml to 400ml displacement category, August sales were 47,000 units, up 28.5% year-on-year and 6.5% month-on-month, with cumulative sales of 356,000 units from January to August, reflecting a 36.5% year-on-year increase [3]. - For the 400ml to 500ml category, August sales were 17,000 units, down 28.5% year-on-year and 27.9% month-on-month, with cumulative sales of 170,000 units, showing a slight year-on-year increase of 0.9% [4]. - In the 500ml to 800ml category, August sales reached 19,000 units, a significant year-on-year increase of 231.4% and a month-on-month increase of 0.8%, with cumulative sales of 131,000 units, up 130.2% year-on-year [4]. - For motorcycles over 800cc, August sales were 1,000 units, down 39.4% year-on-year and 16.6% month-on-month, with cumulative sales of 17,000 units, up 77.6% year-on-year [4]. Company Performance - Chuanfeng Power sold 15,000 units in August, a year-on-year increase of 14.4%, with a market share of 17.4%, down 3.5 percentage points month-on-month. The cumulative market share from January to August was 21.0%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points compared to the full year of 2024 [5]. - Longxin General sold 14,000 units in August, a year-on-year increase of 29.0%, with a market share of 16.9%, up 1.0 percentage points month-on-month. The cumulative market share from January to August was 14.2%, unchanged from the full year of 2024 [5]. - Qianjiang Motorcycle sold 9,000 units in August, a year-on-year decrease of 18.5%, with a market share of 10.2%, down 1.3 percentage points month-on-month. The cumulative market share from January to August was 13.1%, down 3.7 percentage points compared to the full year of 2024 [5]. Industry Outlook - The industry is advised to focus on key companies such as Geely Automobile, Xiaopeng Motors, Li Auto, BYD, Xiaomi Group, Chuanfeng Power, and others as potential investment opportunities [6][10][12].

最近一段时间，A股市场整体表现出较高活跃度，良好的市场表现也吸引了一众外资机构的目光。 据Wind统计口径，今年三季度以来，合计有逾400家外资机构对A股上市公司进行了调研，其中逾30家外 资机构调研次数超过10次。这里面，Point72、高盛、IGWT Investment、美银证券、花旗、路博迈基金 等机构在上述期间调研次数超过40次，调研活动相对更为活跃。数据还显示，仅今年9月以来的十多天时 间里，就已有超过190家外资机构参与了调研活动。 以近年来在A股市场调研活动颇为活跃的Point72为例，该机构日前调研了包括宁波银行、中国重汽、山 推股份、张家港行在内的多家上市公司。比如9月16日，Point72与高盛、Marshall Wace等机构对中国 重汽进行了调研。在调研活动中，中国重汽方面介绍和回复了关于公司产品出口、分红等方面的情况。中 国重汽方面表示，公司产品的出口市场以非洲、东南亚、中亚和中东等重点区域为主，并将借助重汽国际 公司对美洲、澳大利亚和东欧等增量市场的持续开发，助力公司销量提升。另外，2025年半年度，公司 拟继续在中期进行现金分红。 高盛近期对A股上市公司的调研活动也颇为频密，该 ...

Core Viewpoint - Scania is set to enhance its presence in the Chinese market with the launch of a localized production base and new products, aiming to create a complete commercial ecosystem that integrates R&D, manufacturing, sales, and services [1][3][16]. Group 1: Market Strategy - Scania has been in the Chinese market for 60 years and views it as a key strategic area for global expansion [3]. - The company plans to leverage its new production base in Rugao to achieve continuous sales growth and transformation in the Chinese market [3][4]. - Scania aims to develop a diverse product portfolio tailored to various transportation scenarios, enhancing its reliability and profitability in the logistics sector [3][4]. Group 2: Product and Service Offerings - Scania is focusing on specific segments such as trunk transportation, cold chain logistics, and automotive parts transport, while optimizing transportation efficiency and costs [4]. - The company has introduced a new range of seven domestic fuel heavy-duty trucks, emphasizing traditional fuel power while also planning for electric truck options in the future [9]. - Scania is enhancing its service network by establishing a 150 km service radius and offering value-added services like fleet management to improve user profitability [9][10]. Group 3: Aftermarket and Dealer Network - Scania has expanded its parts inventory from 4,500 to over 7,000 types and optimized its distribution network to ensure faster delivery of parts [10]. - The company is increasing its dealer network in China, aiming to grow from 27 to over 40 dealers by the end of 2025, with plans to reach 70 dealers within a year [10]. Group 4: Financing Solutions - Scania has introduced operating and financing lease models to alleviate financial pressures on users, allowing for better resource allocation and cost control [11][12]. - The company offers diverse financing solutions, including trailer financing and insurance services, to meet the needs of users for low initial capital and flexible operations [14].

在新能源重卡迅猛发展的浪潮中，服务模式正逐步成为决定用户体验与品牌形象的关键。 作为2021-2024年连续四年蝉联销量冠军的"顶流"重卡品牌，三一重卡自2021年进入新能源重卡领域，是行业最早专注新能源重卡业 务的卡车企业。如今，三一重卡不仅在产品与技术层面持续领先，更是通过推出"直服"模式，尝试在服务机制上实现突破。那么，三一 重卡如何以直服模式重构传统重卡行业的服务逻辑？其又将对行业产生怎样的深远影响？请看第一商用车网带来的详细解读。 源于基因成于实践 三一早已具备"直服"经验 重卡的新能源化，不仅仅是动力形式的改变，更是运营模式的变革。相比传统燃油车，作为新生事物的新能源重卡虽然维修更为省心， 但在三电系统、智能化、车辆管理等方面与燃油车有着不同的技术要求，这让客户对厂家服务的快速响应、维修专业性和长期保障提出 了更多的要求。然而，采用多层代理的传统模式响应相对滞后，显然会影响用户体验。 为了破解这一困境，三一重卡推动销售模式的变革，搭建"直销"模式，打破传统销售模式，由厂家销售代表直接与客户签合同，确保需 求直达三一，并依据客户实际运营场景提供定制化解决方案，确保能为客户提供专业的定制化服务。这一模 ...

Core Insights - The macroeconomic environment shows strong supply but weak demand, indicating a cautious outlook for various sectors [4][11][15] - The report emphasizes the potential for recovery in the ChiNext index, driven by policy support and advancements in battery storage technology [17][24][28] Macroeconomic Overview - Construction activity is showing signs of improvement, with a slight increase in operational rates for key materials like asphalt and cement, although still below historical averages [6] - Industrial production remains robust, with high operational rates in the chemical sector, but automotive sales have seen a decline [6][13] - Demand in the construction sector is weak, with negative year-on-year growth in building materials [6][12] Commodity Prices - International commodity prices are fluctuating, with significant increases in gold prices, while domestic industrial prices are stable [7] Real Estate Market - New housing transactions have turned positive, with a notable increase in sales in first-tier cities due to relaxed policies [8] - The second-hand housing market is showing marginal improvement, with transaction volumes increasing in major cities [8] Export Trends - Exports are projected to grow by approximately 4% year-on-year in early September, supported by favorable tariff conditions [9] Consumer Market - Retail sales growth has slowed, with a year-on-year decline in August, but the "trade-in" policy is expected to boost sales in the coming months [12][32] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment has weakened, particularly in real estate, with a significant year-on-year decline in property development investment [14][34] Automotive Industry - Heavy truck sales have surged, with a year-on-year increase of about 40% in August, indicating a strong recovery in the domestic market [52] - The penetration rate of new energy heavy trucks has reached a record high, driven by supportive policies and market demand [53] Battery and Storage Sector - The new energy storage policy aims to significantly increase installed capacity by 2027, indicating strong future growth potential for the battery sector [25][27] - The battery industry is experiencing improved market conditions, with solid-state batteries and lithium batteries gaining traction [27] Machinery Sector - The development of Tesla's robotic technology, particularly the "dexterous hand," is crucial for achieving mass production, highlighting the importance of advanced robotics in manufacturing [58][59]

Core Viewpoint - Weichai Power (000338) reported a positive outlook for the heavy truck market in China, driven by a stable increase in sales and the implementation of vehicle replacement policies [1] Industry Summary - In the first half of the year, the cumulative sales of heavy trucks in China reached approximately 539,000 units, representing a year-on-year growth of about 7% [1] - The export market accounted for around 156,000 units sold, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 3%, indicating stable growth [1] - The heavy truck market is showing a positive trend, with August sales reaching 92,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 47% and a month-on-month increase of approximately 8% [1] Company Summary - The company is optimistic about the development of the heavy truck industry and plans to enhance product competitiveness and market expansion [1] - The focus is on achieving high-quality business development in response to the growing market demand [1]

Core Viewpoint - The heavy truck industry is experiencing significant growth, with wholesale sales reaching approximately 87,000 units in August 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of about 40% and a month-on-month rise of 2% from July, making it the second highest figure for the same period in the past eight years [1][2]. Market Performance - The domestic market is benefiting from the "old-for-new" policy, leading to a remarkable year-on-year growth of about 50% in heavy truck sales during the traditionally slow month of August [2][3]. - Cumulatively, from January to August 2025, heavy truck sales reached approximately 711,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of about 14%, with expectations for annual sales to exceed 1 million units [2][3]. Segment Analysis - The demand for natural gas heavy trucks has rebounded significantly, with a month-on-month increase of over 15% and a year-on-year increase of over 30% in August, restoring the domestic penetration rate to around 26%-27% [3]. - The electric heavy truck segment is also showing strong momentum, with expected sales exceeding 16,000 units in August and a penetration rate potentially surpassing 27%, marking a historical high [3]. Company Performance - China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (China National Heavy Truck) maintained its position as the sales leader with a monthly sales figure of 22,000 units, a year-on-year increase of about 29% [4]. - FAW Jiefang (FAW Liberation) achieved monthly sales of approximately 16,500 units, up about 36% year-on-year, while Dongfeng Motor reported a monthly sales figure of about 15,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 52% [4]. - Foton Motor exhibited the largest year-on-year growth among major companies, with a monthly sales figure of about 12,600 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of approximately 175% [4]. Investment Outlook - The heavy truck industry is expected to maintain a high level of activity, with sales anticipated to continue rising from September to December, leading to significant revenue and profit growth for related companies [5]. - Beneficiary companies include China National Heavy Truck (000951.SZ), Weichai Power (000338.SZ), Foton Motor (600166.SH), FAW Jiefang (000800.SZ), Tianrun Industrial (002283.SZ), Changyuan Donggu (603950.SH), and Zhongyuan Neipei (002448.SZ) [5].