供给扰动加剧，铜价有望新高 20250925 极度看好 2026 年上半年铜价，预计将创历史新高，或达 1.2 万至 1.4 万美元/吨。推荐关注铜陵有色，其产量增速快且承诺高分红，具备投资 价值。 国内反倾销政策限制新增产能，若在 11 月底谈判前出台，将巩固国内 头部企业竞争优势，提升行业盈利水平。预计 2026 年下半年铜供应逐 步宽松，冶炼行业盈利预期将改善。 2025 年全球铜矿供应基本无增长，主要矿企减产与新增项目增量相抵， 预计 2026 年上半年供应极度紧张，自由港和艾芬豪减产影响显著，其 他公司也可能面临减产。 中国废铜供应受政策影响趋紧，2025 年前 8 月进口量增速显著放缓， 产业库存已基本消化，新物料补充不足，预计 2025-2027 年国内废铜 供应不会宽裕。 美国取消电解铜关税后，大量存货涌入导致 COMEX 库存短期激增，预 计 9 月底见顶，此后美国市场外的需求压力将加剧，国际市场供需失衡 风险增加。 全球铜库存极低，仅够维持不到 5 天消耗，表明美国以外市场紧张程度 可能超预期。电力、家电和交通运输三大领域占据 70%铜需求，电力需 求改善，家电需求环比提升，新能源车需求稳 ...

今日涨跌幅居前的概念板块 | 概念 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | 概念 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 中国AI 50 | 2.36 | 中韩自贸区 | -1.87 | | 可控核聚变 | 1.39 | 兵装重组概念 | -1.79 | | 快手概念 | 1.36 | 天津自贸区 | -1.75 | | 铜缆高速连接 | 1.26 | 航运概念 | -1.52 | | 金属铜 | 1.17 | 垃圾分类 | -1.43 | | 手机游戏 | 1.15 | 生物质能发电 | -1.43 | | ERP概念 | 1.14 | 高压氧舱 | -1.37 | | 短剧游戏 | 1.11 | PET铜箔 | -1.35 | | AI语料 | 1.09 | 特色小镇 | -1.34 | | 超导概念 | 1.06 | MicroLED概念 | -1.28 | 资金面上看，今日金属铜概念板块获主力资金净流入11.77亿元，其中，41股获主力资金净流入，5股主 力资金净流入超亿元，净流入资金居首的是洛阳钼业，今日主力资金净流入12.47亿元，净流入资金居 前的还有北方铜业、紫金矿 ...

每经AI快讯，9月25日，早盘有色板块大幅高开，铜方向领涨，北方铜业、精艺股份涨停，江西铜业、 电工合金、云南铜业、洛阳钼业、铜陵有色涨幅靠前。 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 本周小结：继续看好铜价上行 截至2025年9月19日，SHFE铜收盘价79910元/吨，环比9月12日-1.42%；LME铜收盘价9997 美元/吨，环比9月 12日-0.71%。（1）宏观：美国9月降息25bp落地后，美元指数短期反弹，铜价回落；但降息周期仍未结束，后 续美元指数或继续走弱。（2）供需：此前美国铜关税导致的库存搬运已进入尾声，LME和COMEX累库有望 逐步结束。矿端、废铜后续仍维持紧张，8月电解铜产量环比微降，8月空调实际产量好于此前预期，随着电 网、空调需求Q4环比回升以及贸易冲突逐步消化，铜价后续有望上行。 库存：国内铜社库环比+3.2%，LME铜库存环比-3.2% （1）国内港口铜精矿库存：截至2025年9月19 ...

2025 年 9 月 21 日 行业研究 8 月国内空调产量同比增长 9%，好于此前预计的同比下跌 2.8% ——铜行业周报（20250915-20250919） 要点 本周小结：继续看好铜价上行。截至 2025 年 9 月 19 日，SHFE 铜收盘价 79910 元/吨，环比 9 月 12 日-1.42%；LME 铜收盘价 9997 美元/吨，环比 9 月 12 日 -0.71%。（1）宏观：美国 9 月降息 25bp 落地后，美元指数短期反弹，铜价回 落；但降息周期仍未结束，后续美元指数或继续走弱。（2）供需：此前美国铜 关税导致的库存搬运已进入尾声，LME 和 COMEX 累库有望逐步结束。矿端、废 铜后续仍维持紧张，8 月电解铜产量环比微降，8 月空调实际产量好于此前预期， 随着电网、空调需求 Q4 环比回升以及贸易冲突逐步消化，铜价后续有望上行。 库存：国内铜社库环比+3.2%，LME 铜库存环比-3.2%。（1）国内港口铜精矿 库存：截至 2025 年 9 月 19 日，国内主流港口铜精矿库存 72.5 万吨，环比上周 +4.6%。（2）全球电解铜库存：截至 2025 年 9 月 15 日，全球 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights that the recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve may lead to fluctuations in copper prices, with a focus on demand during the peak season of September and October [4] - Cobalt prices are expected to rise due to a potential extension of the export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which could accelerate the depletion of raw material inventories [4] - Lithium prices are anticipated to rebound from the bottom as demand increases during the peak season [4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The U.S. retail sales for August exceeded expectations, with a month-on-month increase of 0.6% [8] - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the upper limit of the benchmark rate from 4.5% to 4.25% [8] 2. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector underperformed, with a decline of 4.02% compared to a 1.30% drop in the Shanghai Composite Index [10] - The sector's PE_TTM valuation is 23.96, down by 0.80 from the previous week, while the PB_LF valuation is 2.87, down by 0.09 [19] 3. Copper - Copper prices saw a decline, with LME copper down 0.85% and SHFE copper down 1.42% [24] - Domestic copper inventories increased by 12.50%, indicating a potential oversupply [24] 4. Aluminum - Aluminum prices decreased, with LME aluminum down 0.43% and SHFE aluminum down 1.00% [35] - The aluminum industry is facing a profit margin squeeze, with profits down to 4,793 CNY/ton [35] 5. Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices increased by 1.45% to 73,500 CNY/ton, while lithium spodumene prices rose by 2.02% to 859 USD/ton [74] - The report indicates that lithium prices may have bottomed out and are expected to recover [74] 6. Cobalt - Cobalt prices increased, with MB cobalt rising by 0.93% to 16.30 USD/pound and domestic cobalt prices up by 1.84% to 277,000 CNY/ton [86] - The potential extension of the DRC's cobalt export ban could lead to a significant price rebound [86]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper investment rating: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage investment rating: On hold [7] - Option investment rating: Short put @ 78,000 yuan/ton [7] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - After the Fed's interest rate meeting, the market's interest rate cut expectation was fulfilled, and copper prices declined. However, the TC price of copper remains low, and the demand outlook is not as pessimistic as in the middle of the year. When the price drops below 80,000 yuan/ton, the downstream restocking sentiment may be stimulated [7] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On September 17, 2025, the opening price of the main Shanghai copper contract was 81,010 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 80,560 yuan/ton, a -0.40% decrease from the previous trading day's close. The opening price of the main Shanghai copper contract in the night session was 79,980 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 79,880 yuan/ton, a 0.84% decrease from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot premium of electrolytic copper continued to weaken. The average price of SMM1 copper was 80,410 - 80,790 yuan/ton, with a premium of 60 yuan/ton (down 15 yuan) over the main contract. The market procurement sentiment was low, and holders actively lowered prices to sell [2] Important Information Summary - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, lowering the federal funds rate to 4.00% - 4.25%. After the FOMC statement, the market expected a more than 90% chance of a rate cut in October [3] Mining End - Australia's Orion Minerals signed a non - binding term sheet with a Glencore subsidiary to provide $200 million - $250 million in financing for its Prieska copper - zinc project in South Africa. Different countries have introduced different mining regulatory measures [4] Smelting and Import - Canadian miner Highland Copper's Copperwood copper project in the US received a "non - binding interest letter" from the US Export - Import Bank, with a potential financing of up to $250 million [5] Consumption - From January to August 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 21.051 million and 21.128 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.7% and 12.6%. New energy vehicle production and sales reached 9.625 million and 9.62 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 37.3% and 36.7% [5] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 1,675 tons to 149,775 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 401 tons to 33,291 tons. On September 15, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 154,200 tons, an increase of 9,900 tons from the previous week [6] Table Data - The table shows data on copper prices, premiums, inventories, warehouse receipts, spreads, and arbitrage ratios from different time points (September 18, 2025; September 17, 2025; September 11, 2025; August 19, 2025) [26][27][28]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The copper market is affected by macro - factors and fundamentals. The copper price has corrected due to concerns about the Fed's interest - rate decision, and the supply is tight while the consumption shows a weakening trend [8] - The alumina market has a weakening fundamental trend. The import window has opened narrowly, and the market price reduction may take some time [15] - The electrolytic aluminum market has a tight overseas supply and a marginal recovery in domestic downstream demand. The aluminum price is expected to oscillate and rise after a correction [19][20] - The casting aluminum alloy market is affected by policy changes. The supply is tight, and the alloy ingot price is expected to be stable and slightly stronger [27] - The zinc market has a small reduction in domestic refined zinc supply in September, and the overseas market has some support for the zinc price. The zinc price may fluctuate in the short term [34][39] - The lead market has an upward - moving price center due to downstream pre - holiday stocking. However, there are risks of price decline if the import window opens or the production of recycling enterprises resumes [41] - The nickel market has a relatively optimistic macro - atmosphere, but the LME inventory increase indicates an oversupply of refined nickel in China, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [47] - The stainless - steel market is expected to remain high and oscillate due to the approaching Fed's interest - rate cut, positive domestic policies, and the approaching consumption peak season [53] - The tin market is affected by the Fed's interest - rate decision. The supply is tight, and the demand may be postponed. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [60] - The industrial silicon market may turn into a supply - surplus state if the rumored production resumption occurs. The price is at a relatively low valuation with a bottom support, and long positions can be considered at low prices [67] - The polysilicon market has a long - term upward price trend, but there is a short - term weakening due to the slow progress of capacity integration. The price of the 11 - contract may return to the spot price [72] - The lithium carbonate market has an optimistic atmosphere due to the Fed's interest - rate cut. The short - term supply and demand are both strong, and the price has support from the spot market [77] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper 2510 contract closed at 80,560 yuan/ton, down 0.65%, and the open interest of the Shanghai copper index decreased by 11,113 lots to 510,000 lots. The downstream purchasing sentiment was poor, and the spot premiums in different regions showed different trends [2] - **Important Information**: In August, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles increased significantly. Anglo American and Codelco will jointly operate mines in Chile, and Australia's Orion Minerals may get funds for its project. China's copper product output in August reached a multi - year high [3][4][5] - **Logic Analysis**: Macro - factors and supply - demand fundamentals affect the copper price. The supply is tight, and the consumption shows a weakening trend [8] - **Trading Strategy**: The copper price has fallen from a high level. Hold long positions in cross - market arbitrage and wait and see for options [13] Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2511 contract fell 48 yuan to 2,916 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions showed a downward trend [10] - **Related Information**: Guinea's Ningba Mining Company may resume production. The industry's average profit in August increased, and the operating capacity and开工 rate of alumina in China changed [11][12] - **Logic Analysis**: The alumina market has a weakening fundamental trend, and the market price reduction may take some time [15] - **Trading Strategy**: After the "anti - involution" sentiment fades, the price will return to a bearish fundamental pattern [16] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai aluminum 2510 contract fell 80 yuan to 20,910 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions decreased [18] - **Related Information**: The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 75 basis points by the end of the year. The electrolytic aluminum inventory remained unchanged, and some capacity replacement plans were announced [18] - **Trading Logic**: The market is cautious before the Fed's interest - rate meeting. The overseas supply is tight, and the domestic downstream demand is recovering marginally [19] - **Trading Strategy**: The aluminum price is expected to oscillate, and long positions can be considered after a correction. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [20][21] Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell 70 yuan to 20,435 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions were stable, and the import price decreased [24] - **Related Information**: Policy changes have affected the recycling aluminum industry, and the average cost and profit of the casting aluminum alloy industry in August changed. The casting aluminum alloy futures standard - warehouse receipt generation business will start on September 22 [24][25][26] - **Trading Logic**: Policy changes have affected the supply, and the downstream demand is increasing. The supply is tight, and the price is expected to be stable and slightly stronger [27] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and long positions can be considered after a correction. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [28][29] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc 2511 contract fell 0.13% to 22,285 yuan/ton. The downstream purchasing sentiment was weak, and the spot premium increase was limited [32] - **Related Information**: The construction of the Zhugongtang lead - zinc mine project in Hezhang County has made breakthroughs [33] - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic refined zinc supply may decrease slightly in September, and the overseas market has some support for the zinc price. Pay attention to the impact of macro - factors [34] - **Trading Strategy**: The zinc price may fluctuate in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [39] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead 2510 contract rose 0.12% to 17,100 yuan/ton. The market purchasing activity increased, and the supply of recycled refined lead was scarce [37] - **Related Information**: The scrap battery price is expected to remain firm, and the lead ingot inventory increased [40] - **Logic Analysis**: The lead price has moved upward due to downstream pre - holiday stocking, but there are risks of price decline [41] - **Trading Strategy**: The Shanghai lead price may operate within a range in the short term, and beware of the price decline risk [42] Nickel - **Market Review**: The main Shanghai nickel contract NI2511 fell 940 yuan to 121,990 yuan/ton. The spot premiums remained unchanged [43] - **Related Information**: The Tatty nickel mine will restart, and some companies have investment or acquisition plans [44] - **Logic Analysis**: The macro - atmosphere is relatively optimistic, but the LME inventory increase indicates an oversupply of refined nickel in China [47] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate widely. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [48][49][50] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2511 contract fell 120 yuan to 12,935 yuan/ton. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products are given [52] - **Important Information**: Taiwan's Yieh United is applying for an anti - dumping investigation, and Japan has launched an anti - dumping investigation on stainless - steel products [53] - **Logic Analysis**: The approaching Fed's interest - rate cut, positive domestic policies, and the approaching consumption peak season support the stainless - steel price [53] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to remain high and oscillate. Wait and see for arbitrage [55] Tin - **Market Review**: The main Shanghai tin 2510 contract closed at 272,540 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton or 0.07%. The spot market atmosphere was average [57] - **Related Information**: The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates, and the production and sales of new - energy vehicles increased in August [58][59] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply is tight, and the demand may be postponed. Pay attention to the Fed's interest - rate decision [60] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate within a range. Wait and see for options [61][62] Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The main industrial silicon futures contract oscillated strongly and closed at 8,965 yuan/ton, down 0.06%. The spot price increased [64][65] - **Related Information**: An important article mentioned measures to promote the construction of a unified national market [66] - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The supply and demand situation may change if the rumored production resumption occurs. The price has a bottom support [67] - **Strategy**: Long positions can be considered at low prices [68] Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The main polysilicon futures contract oscillated narrowly and closed at 53,490 yuan/ton, down 2.09%. The spot price range moved up [69][71] - **Related Information**: The national standard committee has completed the solicitation of opinions on relevant standards [71] - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The long - term price trend is upward, but there is a short - term weakening. The 11 - contract price may return to the spot price [72] - **Strategy**: Buy at low prices and set stop - loss and take - profit points. Conduct reverse arbitrage on the 2511 and 2512 contracts. Take profit on selling out - of - the - money put options [73] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2511 contract rose 20 yuan to 73,640 yuan/ton. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased [74] - **Important Information**: BYD launched a new electric - bus platform, and a new lithium - powder production project was proposed [75] - **Logic Analysis**: The market atmosphere is optimistic due to the Fed's interest - rate cut. The short - term supply and demand are both strong [77] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate and strengthen. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell out - of - the - money put options [78][79][80]

Group 1: Energy and Metals Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Crude oil has short - term upside risks and medium - term downside pressures, suggesting holding a combination of short positions at high prices and out - of - the - money call options [1] - Precious metals are strong, with market focus on the Fed meeting's rate - cut amplitude and Powell's speech [2] - Copper, aluminum, and related alloys show different trends. For example, copper may see short - term price increases, while aluminum awaits demand feedback in the peak season [3][4][5] - Other metals like zinc, lead, nickel, etc. also have their own supply - demand and price characteristics, such as zinc having potential cross - market arbitrage opportunities [7] Summary by Category - **Crude Oil**: Short - term geopolitical premiums support the oil market, but medium - term supply - demand is expected to be loose, with surpluses of 164万桶/天 in 2025 and 267万桶/天 in 2026 [1] - **Precious Metals**: Market expects three consecutive Fed rate cuts this year, and tonight's US retail sales data is to be watched [2] - **Copper**: Driven by Sino - US consultations and precious metal trends, short - term Shanghai copper may rise to 8.2 - 8.25 million yuan, and long positions can take profits [3] - **Aluminum**: Downstream start - up is seasonally increasing, and short - term resistance at the March high is to be tested [4] - **Other Metals**: Each metal has unique supply - demand situations, such as zinc's tight overseas spot and potential cross - market arbitrage, and lead's supply reduction and resistance at 17,300 yuan/ton [7][8] Group 2: Industrial Products Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Different industrial products like industrial silicon, polycrystalline silicon, etc. have their own price trends and influencing factors, mainly affected by supply - demand, policies, and cost [12][13] Summary by Category - **Industrial Silicon**: Boosted by coal - related news, but fundamental improvement is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [12] - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The main contract fluctuates between 50,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, and news from this week's industry self - discipline meeting is to be watched [13] - **Steel Products**: Steel prices are expected to be strong in the short term, supported by cost and market sentiment, but demand improvement needs attention [14] - **Iron Ore**: Expected to fluctuate at a high level, affected by supply increase and demand support from high - level molten iron [15] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Prices are affected by "anti - involution" policies, with high volatility in the short term [15][16] Group 3: Chemical Products Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Chemical products' prices are affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and policies. For example, some products' prices are expected to be stable or fluctuate, while others may face supply or demand pressures [20][21] Summary by Category - **Fuel Oil and Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: The crack spread of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil has declined, and high - sulfur may be stronger than low - sulfur in the short term due to geopolitical risks [20] - **Asphalt**: Expected to have short - term slowdown in shipments, but demand has room for improvement, and inventory is decreasing [21] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Overseas market is strong, and the short - term oil price ratio is expected to be strong [22] - **Other Chemicals**: Each chemical has its own supply - demand and price characteristics, such as urea's supply - demand balance and PVC's high - supply, low - demand situation [23][28] Group 4: Agricultural Products Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Agricultural products' prices are influenced by factors like supply - demand, policies, and international trade. For example, soybean and related products' prices are affected by the Sino - US trade negotiation [35] Summary by Category - **Soybean and Related Products**: The Sino - US trade negotiation may cause soybean meal to fluctuate, and long - term cautious optimism is maintained for domestic soybean meal [35] - **Vegetable Oils**: Consider buying soybean and palm oils at low prices in the long term, but pay attention to risk control [36] - **Other Agricultural Products**: Each product has its own supply - demand and price trends, such as corn's price differentiation and egg's potential long - term opportunities [39][41] Group 5: Financial Products Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Financial products like stock index futures and treasury bond futures have their own price trends and influencing factors, mainly affected by macro - economic factors and policies [47][48] Summary by Category - **Stock Index Futures**: The market risk preference is expected to continue, and it is recommended to allocate positions to different styles and consider the Hang Seng Technology Index [47] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The price increase is expanding, and the yield curve is expected to steepen [48]

Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic sentiment is improving, and supply-demand conditions are tightening, leading to an expected rise in copper prices [4]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Factors - As of September 12, 2025, SHFE copper closed at 81,060 CNY/ton, up 1.15% from September 5, while LME copper closed at 10,068 USD/ton, up 1.72% [4]. - The U.S. August CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year, with the market anticipating a 100% probability of a rate cut in September, contributing to a weaker dollar index [4]. Group 2: Supply and Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 2.6%, while LME copper inventory decreased by 1.2% [5]. - As of September 12, 2025, domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory stood at 693,000 tons, up 0.6% week-on-week [5]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory totaled 543,000 tons as of September 8, 2025, up 5.1% week-on-week [5]. Group 3: Raw Materials - In August 2025, domestic waste copper production decreased by 5% month-on-month but increased by 16% year-on-year [6]. - China's copper concentrate production in May 2025 was 158,000 tons, up 22.7% month-on-month and 11.2% year-on-year [6]. Group 4: Smelting and Processing - In August 2025, SMM China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1715 million tons, down 0.2% month-on-month but up 15.6% year-on-year [7]. - The TC spot price as of September 12, 2025, was -41.42 USD/ton, down 0.9 USD/ton from September 5, remaining at a low level since September 2007 [7]. Group 5: Demand - The cable industry accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, with the operating rate for cable enterprises at 67.62%, up 0.87 percentage points week-on-week [9]. - Air conditioning accounts for about 13% of domestic copper demand, with production expected to decline by 12%, 22.6%, and 19.7% year-on-year from September to November [9]. Group 6: Futures Market - As of September 12, 2025, SHFE copper active contract positions increased by 5% week-on-week, with a total of 187,000 contracts [9]. - COMEX non-commercial net long positions increased by 6% week-on-week, totaling 27,000 contracts as of September 9, 2025 [9].