Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the copper industry, but it highlights the strategic importance of copper in clean energy and its expected demand growth due to energy transition initiatives [3]. Core Insights - Copper is recognized as a strategic metal and is essential for achieving global net-zero targets outlined in the Paris Agreement. The share of copper in clean energy applications is projected to increase from 29% to 36% by mid-century [3]. - The supply of copper is highly concentrated globally, with significant declines in major copper discoveries and increasing costs associated with finding new copper deposits. This limited supply, combined with rising demand driven by global GDP cycles and energy transition policies, is expected to push copper prices higher [3]. - China, as the largest producer and consumer of refined copper, is experiencing a declining self-sufficiency rate. The government is implementing policies to enhance domestic resource reserves and improve the quality and efficiency of copper smelting [3]. Summary by Sections Chapter 1: Overview of Copper - Copper is widely used due to its excellent conductivity and versatility, making it a critical material in various applications [10]. - The report emphasizes the strong correlation between copper prices and global economic growth, as reflected in historical data [10]. Chapter 2: Supply of Copper - Global copper supply is highly concentrated, with major production coming from countries like Chile, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Peru. The report notes that the average copper ore grade is declining, and the discovery of new copper mines is becoming increasingly difficult [30]. - The report indicates that the average time from discovery to production of a copper mine is approximately 16 years, highlighting the challenges in increasing supply [30]. Chapter 3: Demand for Copper - The demand for copper is expected to grow significantly, driven by investments in power grid infrastructure and the rapid development of the electric vehicle market. The average annual investment in China's power grid during the 14th Five-Year Plan was significantly lower than the projected investment for the 15th Five-Year Plan [3][67]. - The report projects that the demand for copper in the renewable energy sector will increase, with the copper consumption in electric vehicles being four times that of traditional vehicles [80]. Chapter 4: Copper Prices - Factors influencing copper prices include supply-demand dynamics, geopolitical issues, and climate-related events. The report notes that significant disruptions in supply from major mines have occurred due to natural disasters [97]. - The report highlights the expected increase in copper prices due to the tightening supply-demand balance in the coming years [3]. Chapter 5: Key ETFs - The report identifies key ETFs focused on the copper industry, such as the Huatai-PineBridge CSI Segmented Nonferrous Metals Industry Theme ETF and the China Asset Management CSI Segmented Nonferrous Metals Industry ETF, which are recommended for investors looking to gain exposure to the copper market [109].

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 师橙 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2026-02-03，沪铜主力合约开于 101490元/吨，收于 104500元/吨，较前一交易日收盘6.01%，昨日夜盘 沪铜主力合约开于 104，950元/吨，收于 105，180 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘上涨3.49%。 现货情况： 重要资讯汇总： 宏观与地缘方面，美国白宫方面表示，本周晚些时候与伊朗的会谈仍将按计划进行。此前，有知情人士 透露，伊朗希望将原定于2月6日与美国举行的会谈从土耳其伊斯坦布尔移至阿曼，并以双边形式举行。 目前伊朗方面尚未就此作出回应。美国政府方面，美国总统特朗普签署政府拨款法案，结束政府部 分"停摆"。此前，美国国会众议院投票通过联邦政府多个部门本财年剩余时间拨款法案，从1月31日开 始的联邦政府部分"停摆"僵局得以化解。美联储方面，美联储理事米兰表示，美联储今年需要降息不止 100个基点，很期待凯文·沃什担任美联储主席后的表现。不过，里士满联储主席巴金强调，在通胀尚未 完全回落至目标之前，货币政策仍需保持谨慎，以确保劳动力市场的稳定。 矿端方面，2月 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about the report industry investment ratings is provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report Zinc - Overseas monetary policy tightening expectations put pressure on market risk appetite, and spot trading improvement is limited. Zinc prices oscillated and adjusted. The shortage of zinc ore supports prices, but the high zinc prices suppress demand. The overall fundamentals are good, and the downside space of zinc prices may be limited. Pay attention to the changes in zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory [2]. Copper - The expectation of copper storage at home and abroad is strengthened, and copper prices stabilized and rebounded. The short - term supply of copper ore is tight, and the demand has recovered. The medium - and long - term logic remains unchanged, and the bottom center of copper prices is expected to rise gradually. In the short term, with the narrowing of CL premium, copper prices may return to fundamental pricing [5]. Tin - The short - term tin prices are easily affected by market sentiment and may fluctuate sharply. In the medium and long term, although the supply side is gradually recovering, considering the low elasticity of supply and the long - term narrative of the AI arms race, a low - buying strategy for tin prices is recommended [7]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to continue to fluctuate widely around the industry cost line. Aluminum prices have experienced an emotional surge, but they have deviated from fundamental support. It is recommended to gradually make long positions after the price stabilizes and the volatility decreases [9]. Nickel - Recent macro - sentiment and ore - end expectations affect the overall fluctuation rhythm of nickel prices. Nickel prices are expected to adjust in a wide range. Pay attention to the range of 130,000 - 140,000 [11]. Stainless Steel - Stainless steel mainly follows the macro - sentiment. The cost support still exists, but the supply contraction due to steel mill production cuts, the weak demand boost in the off - season, and inventory digestion are still insufficient. It is expected to adjust weakly in the short term [13]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate, with the main price fluctuation range between 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the changes in production and demand [15]. Polysilicon - Production enterprises have a strong willingness to support prices. Polysilicon prices are expected to stabilize and oscillate. Pay attention to the post - Spring Festival production reduction and downstream demand recovery [17]. Aluminum Alloy - The ADC12 price of aluminum alloy is expected to continue to oscillate in the high - level range. Pay attention to the actual circulation of scrap aluminum, the change of import window, and the final strength and rhythm of downstream inventory preparation before the Spring Festival [18]. Lithium Carbonate - The trading logic of lithium carbonate has switched, and the macro impact is greater. The price center has a certain constraint on the downward adjustment space. It is expected to adjust in a wide range in the short term [19]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.32% to 25,050 yuan/ton. The import loss was 2,677 yuan/ton, and the monthly spread changed [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In January, the refined zinc output was 560,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.54%. The开工 rate of zinc - related processing industries decreased, and the social inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions in China increased by 7.62% week - on - week [2]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.86% to 101,320 yuan/ton. The import loss was 236 yuan/ton, and the monthly spread changed [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In January, the electrolytic copper output was 1.1793 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.10%. The开工 rate of copper - related processing industries and inventory data changed [5]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 2.76% to 381,900 yuan/ton. The import loss and monthly spread changed [7]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In December, the import of tin ore remained unchanged, and the production and export of refined tin, as well as the开工 rate of related industries, changed [7]. - **Inventory Change**: SHEF and social inventories increased, while SHEF (daily) and LME inventories decreased [7]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 1.73% to 23,290 yuan/ton. The import loss of electrolytic aluminum and the monthly spread changed [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In January, the alumina output decreased by 1.78%, and the domestic electrolytic aluminum output increased by 0.47%. The开工 rate of aluminum - related processing industries decreased, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased [9]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 0.82% to 139,050 yuan/ton. The import loss and monthly spread changed [11]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: In January, China's refined nickel output increased by 20.06%, and the import volume increased by 84.63%. Inventories in different regions changed [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 14,100 yuan/ton. The raw material price and monthly spread changed [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel in China decreased by 26.72%, and the import and export volumes changed. The social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel increased slightly [13]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: The price of East China oxygen - permeable S15530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,350 yuan/ton. The monthly spread changed [15]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In January, the national industrial silicon output decreased by 5.44%, and the开工 rate decreased. The inventory data changed [15]. Polysilicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type re -投料 increased by 4.29% to 53,500 yuan/ton. The monthly spread changed [17]. - **Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly)**: The production of polysilicon and silicon wafers, as well as import and export volumes, changed [17]. - **Inventory Change**: The inventory of polysilicon and silicon wafers increased [17]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 decreased by 0.84% to 23,650 yuan/ton. The monthly spread changed [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the production of recycled and primary aluminum alloy ingots decreased, and the import and export volumes changed. The开工 rate of aluminum alloy - related industries decreased, and the social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased slightly [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1.29% to 153,500 yuan/ton. The monthly spread changed [19]. - **Fundamental Data**: In January, the production of lithium carbonate decreased by 1.31%, and the demand decreased by 4.18%. The inventory data changed [19].

Core Viewpoint - Short-term copper prices are fluctuating, but the outlook for copper prices in 2026 remains positive due to ongoing supply-demand tightness [4]. Group 1: Market Overview - As of January 30, 2026, SHFE copper closed at 103,680 CNY/ton, up 2.31% from January 23, while LME copper closed at 13,071 USD/ton, down 0.44% [4]. - The market perceives a low probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in March 2026, which may affect overall commodity sentiment [4]. Group 2: Inventory Analysis - Domestic copper social inventory decreased by 2.2%, while LME copper inventory increased by 2.6% [5]. - As of January 30, 2026, domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory was 673,000 tons, down 6.8% from the previous week [5]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory totaled 986,000 tons, up 2.8% from January 23 [5]. Group 3: Supply Dynamics - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper increased by 765 CNY/ton this week [6]. - In October 2025, China's copper concentrate production was 130,000 tons, down 8.1% month-on-month and 12.1% year-on-year [6]. Group 4: Smelting and Production - China's electrolytic copper production in January 2026 was 1.1793 million tons, up 0.1% month-on-month and 16.3% year-on-year [7]. - The TC spot price as of January 30, 2026, was -50.30 USD/ton, reflecting a decrease of 0.3 USD/ton from January 23 [7]. Group 5: Demand Insights - Cable manufacturing, which accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, saw an increase in operating rate to 59.46%, up 0.75 percentage points from the previous week [8]. - Air conditioning production, which represents about 13% of domestic copper demand, is projected to decline year-on-year by 31.6% in February, 6.5% in March, and increase by 4.0% in April [8]. Group 6: Futures Market - As of January 30, 2026, the open interest for SHFE copper active contracts was 223,000 lots, down 2.6% from the previous week [9]. - The non-commercial net long position on COMEX was 48,000 lots, down 8.0% from the previous week [9].

铜：棋至中局，稳定性凸显 20260128 摘要 XT 合约价差飙升至 100 美元，创 1998 年来最大单日涨幅，导致 COMEX 与 LME 价差转负，北美隐性库存增加缓解 LME 低库存，短期 内铜价相对其他品种偏弱。 长期来看，美国或通过高价维持电解铜进口优势，远端虹吸效应持续。 全球铜矿生产干扰率高，如智利 Capstone 铜金矿罢工，限制供应。预 计春节前后铜价横盘整理，长期供应紧张和电力需求增长支撑铜价。 铜需求与电力紧密相关，新能源和 AI 技术革命带动电力需求。美国人均 用铜量与人均 GDP 呈 M 型趋势，AI 技术开支大幅上行，类似 90 年代 互联网周期，电力相关用铜需求将持续增长。 过去十年铜矿资本支出偏低，新扩建项目不足以弥补大规模新矿山开发 所需产能。高利润背景下劳资关系紧张及资源国保护主义政策提高生产 干扰率，供应端长期受限。 全球范围内铜供应存在结构性紧缺将持续存在。建议关注紫金、洛钼、 五矿等资源储备丰富的公司，以及中国有色矿业、铜陵、江铜等自给率 提升显著的企业。 紫金收购联合黄金矿区后黄金产量有望提升，洛钼完成巴西黄金矿山收 购交割，为公司提供利润支撑。在当前宏观复 ...

宏观与产业形成共振，铜的战略价值持续提升。全球地缘政治冲突加剧，铜作为关键矿产的战略属性凸 显，各国对资源的掌控力度持续加强。美元信用削弱趋势下，铜与贵金属的联动性增强，在避险情绪与 通胀预期的双重作用下，资金对铜的配置需求提升。中长期来看，AI数据中心、新能源汽车、储能等 新兴领域快速发展，将持续打开铜的需求天花板，而供给端的刚性约束难以短期缓解，供需紧平衡格局 将长期维持，铜价中枢有望逐步上移。 据新华社报道，国际黄金期货价格和现货价格29日再创新高，盘中突破每盎司5500美元。 近期工业金属板块表现亮眼，资金关注度持续提升。作为工业金属的核心品种，铜正从传统工业金属升 级为战略资产，这会如何定义其未来的价值？请看机构最新研判。 近期，有色板块中铜品种表现亮眼，资金关注度显著提升。这轮行情的核心支撑，主要来自供需两端的 共振。供给端，全球铜矿资本开支不足，矿端扰动频发，铜精矿供需格局由紧平衡转向短缺；需求端， 国内经济复苏带动下游补库，海外降息周期打开流动性宽松空间，铜的金融属性与商品属性形成正向循 环。 具体来看，供给端约束持续强化，成为铜价的核心支撑。全球铜矿长期资本开支不足，叠加矿山品位下 降、地缘 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-28 春节临近需求持续偏弱 铜价仍陷震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2026-01-27，沪铜主力合约开于 103260元/吨，收于 102600元/吨，较前一交易日收盘0.71%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合 约开于 101,900元/吨，收于 101,560 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘下降1.18%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨体贴水格局。因此，沪铜现货贴水预计将继续承压运行。 今日SMM 1#电解铜现货对2602合约报贴水310至220元/吨，均价贴水265元，较昨日下跌35元。现货价格区间为 101140-101600元/吨。 期铜主力早盘跳空低开后震荡走弱，盘中下探101610元，随后于101860-102200元间波动，收于101880元。隔月 Contango价差在340-270元之间，当月进口亏损约610-730元/吨。早间好铜报贴水220-150元，平水铜报贴水300-240 元，中条山等以贴水300-280元成交，祥光等报贴水240元，湿法铜货紧报贴水350-330元。部分持货商月底甩货， 当月票货源价格较高，金川isa等贴水330元迅速成交。午后 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 有色金属行业周报（20260119-20260123） 避险升温&美联储独立性危机，金银价格再 推荐（维持） 创新高 ❑ 一、工业金属 ❑ 行业观点 2：受淡季影响和宏观扰动，铝价或震荡运行 ❑ 事件：根据钢联，1 月 23 日，SHFE 铜铝价格比为 4.18，LME 铜铝价格比为 4.08；库存看，截至 1 月 22 日，国内铝锭现货库存 76.8 万吨，环比上周四增 加 1.9 万吨，环比本周一增加 0.4 万吨，铝棒库存 22.95 万吨，环比上周四增 加 1.6 万吨，环比本周一增加 0.5 万吨；1 月 23 日 LME 库存 50.73 万吨，环 比本周一增加 22275 吨，环比上周五增加 19275 吨。从下游看，根据阿拉丁数 据，本周国内铝板带行业产能利用率为 70.39%，较上周下降 0.36 个百分点； 国内铝箔行业产能利用率为 75.52%，较上周上涨 0.77 个百分点。 观点：我们认为铝短期进入消费淡季，淡季效应在逐步显性，但是长期基本面 和宏观叙事大逻辑暂未改变，对铝价支撑强。当前看铝基本面：一是未来几年 供给刚性明显，电力扰动存量项目减产预期持续强化， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, indicating expected performance above the market average [2][15]. Core Insights - The report highlights investment opportunities arising from the increase in domestic copper resource reserves, particularly noting the significant resource addition by Yulong Copper in Tibet, which adds 131.42 thousand tons of copper and 10.77 thousand tons of molybdenum [7][11]. - The aluminum sector is expected to maintain a strong performance due to optimistic macroeconomic expectations, despite a slight price correction [7][11]. - The precious metals market is experiencing mixed investor preferences, with gold demand increasing while silver demand shows a decline [7][11]. - The tungsten supply remains tight, with prices increasing, and there is a rising expectation for restocking post-holiday [7][11]. - The steel industry is poised for growth with new government policies aimed at stabilizing the sector, benefiting from infrastructure investments [8][11]. Summary by Sections Copper - LME copper and SHFE copper prices were reported at 13,000 and 100,770 USD/ton respectively, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.5% and 0.6% [7]. - The processing fee for imported copper concentrate is in negative territory, indicating tight supply [7]. - The operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises increased to 57.47%, up by 9.65 percentage points week-on-week [7]. Aluminum - LME aluminum and SHFE aluminum prices were reported at 3,147 and 23,925 USD/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 1.0% and 1.7% [7]. - The operating rate of aluminum processing enterprises increased to 60.2% [7]. Precious Metals - SHFE gold and COMEX gold prices were reported at 1,032.3 CNY/gram and 4,601.1 USD/ounce, with week-on-week increases of 2.6% and 1.8% [7]. - SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 21.1 tons week-on-week, indicating a preference for gold among overseas investors [7]. Tungsten and Rare Metals - Tungsten concentrate prices rose to 507,000 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 4.3% [7]. - The rare earth industry is experiencing tight supply, with prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxide and dysprosium oxide increasing [7]. Steel - SHFE rebar and hot-rolled coil prices were reported at 3,163 and 3,315 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.6% [8]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced plans for a new round of growth stabilization policies for the steel industry [8].

智通财经APP注意到，伦敦金属交易所(LME)的现货铜价大幅飙升并超过远期期货，这迹象表明交易员 可能正准备从该交易所仓库中大量提货。 周三到期的铜合约价格比周四到期的合约高出 64 美元，这种被称为"现货升水"的状态通常预示着现货 需求上升。而就在周一，"明日次日(Tom/next)"价差还处于小幅贴水状态，本次飙升是自 1998 年有价格 记录以来最大的涨幅之一。 这一波动为 LME 铜市场带来了新一轮动荡。本月初，铜价曾一路狂飙至每吨 13,400 美元以上的历史高 位。由于矿山产量受阻，加之运往美国的出货量激增导致其他地区供应枯竭，交易员纷纷涌入市场;与 此同时，许多投资者押注蓬勃发展的人工智能产业将带动需求激增。 结构性约束 在月度合约到期前，明日/次日价差经常会出现现货升水，但更长期限的价差也预示着整个铜行业存在 更深层次的结构性供应约束——直到 2028 年底的大多数月度价差都出现了现货升水。许多分析师和交 易员预计，届时市场将陷入严重短缺，这一趋势可能会耗尽全球库存并推高价格。 目前全球库存水平尚且充足，但大部分库存集中在美国仓库，因为交易员此前预期关税政策而向美国运 送了创纪录的货物。这种" ...