铜价高位背景下，劳资利益分配博弈或成供应端隐性风险点 尽管此次面临罢工威胁的智利曼托维德铜金矿25年预计产量为2.9-3.2万吨，贡献供给端产量占比较小， 但该行认为，在铜价持续上行的背景下，企业与员工之间的利益分配博弈或导致此类以薪资纠纷为核心 原因的铜矿罢工事件发生概率提升。例如位于智利的全球第一大铜矿Escondida铜矿，在铜价上行情况 下其分别在2017年2月与2024年8月因工资待遇不公、安全生产风险高等原因进行罢工。17年的罢工导致 该矿减少21万吨的产出，占比17年铜矿总产量超过1%，直接推动铜价创下15年5月以来的最高价，而24 年的罢工在全球铜精矿供应紧张之时也引发恐慌情绪推动铜价短期上行。该行认为，在当前铜价处于历 史高位的背景下，矿企劳资利益分配博弈或加剧，成为脆弱的矿端供应链上隐性风险点，或加剧矿端扰 动情况，进而持续推升铜价。 供给紧缺趋势是铜价上行的基本动力，继续看好铜板块的中期投资价值 自9月Grasberg矿难以来，市场对矿难导致的供给缩减已在逐步形成共识，但对铜价高位可能导致罢工 风险的概率提升、加剧矿端供应链的脆弱性尚未形成认知。回顾推动铜价上行的原因，该行认为供给紧 缺 ...

从全年走势来看，铜价上涨趋势更为明显，截至12月30日15时40分，2025年以来LME三个月期铜、沪 铜期货主力连续合约累计涨幅分别达到42.34%、32.97%。 对于2025年铜价的整体走势，业内人士也进行了复盘。混沌天成研究院有色组分析师周蜜儿表示，2025 年铜价因宏观和矿端因素影响而波动明显，但整体呈现上升趋势，其中上半年主要受关税预期主导，下 半年市场则转向供应风险交易。 一德期货有色金属分析师王伟伟则进一步表示："2025年铜精矿供给紧张是推动铜价上行的核心原因， 而美国关税政策的冲击加剧了铜价的大幅波动，溢价导致的虹吸效应又进一步加剧了非美地区精铜库存 的紧张。" （原标题：多因素助推铜价迭创历史新高） "错过了上车金银的机会，或许买铜是一种补救方式。"近期，一则投资者的发帖在市场中引发共鸣。在 金银价格迭创历史新高之际，铜市已然接棒，开启"狂飙"模式，伦敦金属交易所（LME）三个月期铜累 计涨超40%，成为2025年大宗商品市场耀眼的明星之一。 这轮铜价的强势上行，不仅带动期货市场价格屡创新高，更传导至股市相关板块，带动产业链个股走 强，全球范围内的"抢铜狂潮"就此拉开序幕。展望2026年 ...

制作任何形式的拷贝、复印件或复制品，或再次分发给任何其他人，或以任何侵犯本公司版权的其他方式使用。 | 序号 | 品种 | 主要观点（最新逻辑变化） | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 现货分歧大。1）行情：LME市场圣诞缺席，国内沪铜增仓到纪录水平，价格最高10.2万，伦铜开市跳涨到最高1.29万。消费淡季叠加高铜价， | | | | 跨年时段单边交易以加速度兑现2026年尤其一季度铜精矿供应紧俏等利多因素，直接达到多数投行预计的年度高位区。2）国内供需：基本面背 | | | | 离信号明显。SMM月底沪粤现货贴水幅度扩至330、235元/吨，SMM社库增至21.48万吨。高铜价正在影响春节前涉铜中间铜材类产品开工，。这 | | 1 | 铜 | 可能对纪录涨势的铜价形成高位调整压力。但价格仍可能受益于原再生料的紧张、国内精炼铜产量供应同时转淡以及炼厂出口动作。海外价 差，美铜>伦铜>沪铜的跨市结构，持续减缓国内铜消费淡季的影响。3）海外：刚果（金）暂停手工铜和钴矿加工。等待海外投行更新2026年铜 | | | | 目标位预期。4）走势：以美盘铜6美元/磅上调铜市目标位，伦铜约1.31万美 ...

年度报告——铜 革故鼎新，迭创新高 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | | | 铜：看涨 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 | 年 | 12 | 月 | 30 | 日 | [Table_Analyser] | [★Ta原bl料e_端Summary] 矿端紧缺加剧，冷料补充有限，预计 2026 年全球铜矿产量边际 增长至 30-45 万金属吨。极端天气频发、地缘政策潜变、资源民 族主义抬头、矿石品位下降及水资源紧张、社区问题不稳及罢 工潜在威胁已经构成"系统性扰动风险"。 ★冶炼端 有 色 金 加工利润继续恶化，产能限制风险抬升，冶炼主动降负荷范围 扩大，2026 年全球精铜产量边际增长恐低于 50 万吨。明年将更 多围绕减产预期博弈，盘面及结构均会受到影响。海外供给生 态更为脆弱，间接影响铜元素进口。副产品收益继续观察。 ★需求端 需求新周期悄然开启，"旧动能不弱，新动能更强"，乐观预 计 2026 年全球铜需求边际增速超过 4%。新能源需求与国内传统 需求阶段被低估风险上升，明年存在阶 ...

Market Overview - The average price of SMM1 electrolytic copper for the week ending December 27, 2025, ranged from 93,470 to 97,740 yuan/ton, showing an upward trend during the week [2][10] - SMM's premium/discount quotes ranged from -340 to -195 yuan/ton, maintaining a discount throughout the week [2][10] - LME inventory decreased by 0.07 million tons to 157,000 tons, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory increased by 1.59 million tons to 111,700 tons [2][10] - Domestic social inventory (excluding bonded zones) rose by 2.52 million tons to 193,600 tons, and bonded zone inventory decreased by 0.12 million tons to 75,400 tons [2][10] - Comex inventory increased by 2.07 million tons to 482,900 tons [2][10] Macroeconomic Insights - In the week ending December 27, 2025, U.S. core capital goods orders and shipments rebounded [3][11] - The offshore RMB broke the "7" mark against the USD for the first time in 15 months [3][11] - The risk of military conflict between Israel and Iran has escalated due to missile issues [3][11] - The Bank of Japan's governor indicated that they are nearing their inflation target and may continue to raise interest rates [3][11] Mining Sector - The SMM imported copper concentrate index reported -44.9 USD/dry ton, down by 1.25 USD from the previous period [3][12] - Market trading was quiet due to the Christmas holiday, with foreign suppliers on break [3][12] - Kaz Minerals has reduced direct supply of copper concentrate to China, with remaining supplies to be circulated through traders [3][12] - Capstone Copper's Mantoverde mine union plans to strike on December 29 if labor negotiations fail, with a projected copper output of 22,000 tons in 2024 [3][12] Smelting and Import Dynamics - The average transaction price for Yangshan copper premium was 53.4 USD/ton, up 4.4 USD week-on-week [4][13] - The average price for warehouse receipts was 53.6 USD/ton, up 10.6 USD week-on-week [4][13] - The import loss was approximately 1,400 yuan/ton as of December 24, with mainstream warehouse and bill prices ranging from 40 to 50 USD/ton [4][13] Scrap Copper Market - Copper prices surged, with Shanghai copper reaching a peak of 99,730 yuan/ton, an increase of nearly 6,000 yuan [5][14] - The price difference between refined and scrap copper narrowed before rebounding to 3,944 yuan/ton, showing weak follow-through in scrap copper prices [5][14] - Market liquidity is tight due to sellers holding back, and downstream purchasing remains cautious [5][14] Consumption Trends - The operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises was 60.73%, down 2.34 percentage points [6][15] - High copper prices have suppressed downstream purchasing, leading to fewer new orders and a continued weak market [6][15] - The operating rate for copper cable enterprises was 60.75%, down 5.96 percentage points [6][15] Strategic Outlook - The strategy for copper is cautiously bullish, with recommendations for downstream enterprises to focus on demand-based hedging [7][16] - If prices fall between 94,000 and 95,000 yuan/ton, it is suggested to increase buying hedging [7][16]

2025 年 12 月 28 日 行业研究 国家发改委强调对铜冶炼强化管理和优化布局 ——铜行业周报（20251222-20251226） 要点 期货：SHFE 铜活跃合约本周持仓环比+2%。截至 2025 年 12 月 26 日，SHFE 铜活跃合约持仓量 25.2 万手，环比上周+2.2%，持仓量处 1995 年至今 80%分 位数。截至 12 月 16 日，COMEX 非商业净多头持仓 6.5 万手，环比上周+3.8%， 持仓量处 1990 年以来 89%分位数。 本周小结：继续看好铜价上行。截至 2025 年 12 月 26 日，SHFE 铜收盘价 98720 元/吨，环比 12 月 19 日+5.95%；LME 铜收盘价 12133 美元/吨，环比 12 月 19 日+3.37%。（1）宏观：本周周内美元指数创 2025 年 11 月 21 日以来新低。（2） 供需：国家发改委 12 月 26 日发布《大力推动传统产业优化提升》，强调对氧 化铝、铜冶炼等产业强化管理和优化布局。线缆企业开工率本周下降，铜价大涨 对需求有压制，但展望 2026 年，供需依然偏紧，继续看好铜价上行。 库存：国内铜社库环比 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US economy shows resilience, and the market generally expects that after the replacement of the Fed Chairman, a relatively loose monetary policy will be adopted, pushing up the prices of precious metals and non - ferrous metals. The structural contradiction of supply falling short of demand between the copper mine supply end and the electrolytic copper smelting end is prominent, and the copper smelting end may continue to be under pressure. It is expected that the global copper production growth rate will be limited next year. Although the traditional power distribution copper demand accounts for the largest proportion, the copper consumption in emerging fields such as new energy power generation is growing rapidly. The upgrade of global power grid and other infrastructure in the future may support copper demand, and the incremental copper demand in new energy power generation and other industries is promising. The Shanghai copper futures have broken through the 100,000 - yuan/ton mark, and the market is expected to remain strong around New Year's Day [7]. - The recommended strategy is to continue to hold medium - term long positions, conduct short - term rolling long operations, and the medium - term support range for Shanghai copper 2603 is 95,000 - 96,000 yuan/ton [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Views and Strategies - **Macro**: The US economy shows resilience, with the real GDP in the third quarter growing by 4.3%, the fastest in two years. The market expects a more relaxed monetary policy after the change of the Fed Chairman [7]. - **Supply**: The 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee benchmark is set at $0/ton and $0/lb, significantly lower than that in 2025. In 2025, due to various disturbances, the annual mine - end production guidance has been revised down by over 500,000 tons, and the copper concentrate supply in 2025 is expected to be basically the same as in 2024. The supply - demand contradiction between the copper mine supply end and the smelting end is prominent [7]. - **Demand**: The traditional power distribution copper demand accounts for about 28%. The copper consumption in new energy power generation and other emerging industries is growing rapidly. In 2024, the copper demand from clean energy reached 7.737 million tons, a 28.9% increase from 2021. The future infrastructure upgrade may support copper demand [7]. - **Inventory**: Due to the rise in copper prices affecting downstream procurement, the domestic social inventory and SHFE inventory have rebounded rapidly in the short term [7]. - **Strategy**: Continue to hold medium - term long positions, conduct short - term rolling long operations, and the medium - term support range for Shanghai copper 2603 is 95,000 - 96,000 yuan/ton [6]. 2. Spot and Futures Markets - The report presents figures on domestic spot and futures prices, Shanghai flat - water copper premiums and discounts, LME copper prices, and the Shanghai - London copper price ratio, but no specific analysis content is provided [11][13] 3. Supply and Inventory - **Global Copper Mine Capital Expenditure and New Discoveries**: Global copper exploration investment has fluctuated greatly. Since 2015, the discovery of high - grade copper mines has decreased year by year, and new large - scale copper mines are in areas with poor geological conditions or political instability [20]. - **Global Copper Mine and Refined Copper Production Distribution**: In 2024, Chile accounted for 23% of global copper mine production, and China accounted for 45% of global refined copper production [23][25]. - **Copper Concentrate Processing Fee TC and Global Copper Mine Production**: As of December 26, 2025, the comprehensive TC price of 26% clean copper concentrate was - $44.70/ton, and the spot price was $3,291/ton. The current spot processing fee is far below the break - even point. In 2025, the global copper concentrate production showed a certain trend [30]. - **2026 Global Newly Expanded and Interrupted Copper Mine Output Increment**: The total incremental output in 2026 is expected to be 533,000 tons, but the actual growth rate may be less than 1.5%. It is estimated that the overseas new - added capacity from 2025 - 2026 will be 620,000 tons [32][33]. - **Copper Concentrate Import and Inventory**: In November 2025, China's copper concentrate imports were 2.5262 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.13%. As of the 52nd week of 2025, the port inventory of imported copper concentrate was 680,000 tons [36]. - **Global and Chinese Electrolytic Copper Production**: In October 2025, the global refined copper production was 2.2419 million tons, with a supply shortage of 1,400 tons. In the same month, China's refined copper production was 1.204 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9% [41]. - **Chinese Electrolytic Copper Import and Export Volume**: In November 2025, China's refined copper imports were 304,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 23.47%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative exports were 681,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 49.33% [43]. - **Chinese Scrap Copper Import and Premium - Discount Difference**: From January to November 2025, China's cumulative scrap copper imports were 2.104 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%. As of December 26, 2025, the premium - discount difference in the Guangdong market was 5,928 yuan/ton [47][48]. - **International Visible Inventory**: As of December 23, 2025, the LME inventory was 157,800 tons, and the copper inventory in the New York market reached a new high in recent years [54][55]. - **Domestic Inventory**: Since May 2025, the domestic social inventory has fluctuated between 1 - 2 million tons. As of December 25, 2025, the social inventory was 202,200 tons. The SHFE inventory has also remained low [59]. 4. Primary Processing and Terminal Markets - **Primary Processing Market**: From January to November 2025, China's cumulative copper product output was 22.593 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%. In November 2025, China imported 427,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products, and the total export volume from January to November 2025 was 1.4971 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 24.10% [65][70]. - **Terminal Market - Power**: From January to November 2025, the investment in power source projects of major power generation enterprises in China was 850 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%; the investment in power grid projects was 560.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.9% [74]. - **Terminal Market - Real Estate**: From January to November, China's real estate development investment was 7.8591 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9% [80]. - **Terminal Market - Automobile**: From January to November 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 31.231 million and 31.127 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 11.9% and 11.4%. The production and sales of new energy vehicles were 14.907 million and 14.78 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 31.4% and 31.2%. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 53.6%. It is expected that the sales volume of new energy vehicles in 2026 will reach 1.85 million vehicles [85][90]. - **Terminal Market - Home Appliances**: In November 2025, China's air - conditioner output was 15.026 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 23.4%. From January to November 2025, the export volume of household appliances was 408.2801 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 0.4% [94]. - **Terminal Market - Photovoltaic and Wind Power**: As of November 2025, China's solar power installed capacity was 1.16 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 41.9%; the wind power installed capacity was 600 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 22.4% [98]. - **Chinese Photovoltaic and Wind Power Newly - Added Copper Consumption and Global AI Copper Consumption Forecast**: It is expected that the copper consumption of China's photovoltaic and wind power installations will decrease in 2025 and 2026. The global data center scale and copper consumption are expected to increase in 2025 and 2026 [100][101][102]. 5. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet and Industrial Chain Structure - **Global Copper Downstream Demand Structure Change and Supply - Demand Balance Forecast**: From 2026 - 2028, the global refined copper supply and demand will have a continuous gap of 160,000 tons, 360,000 tons, and 610,000 tons respectively. The proportion of new energy consumption in total consumption is increasing [106]. - **Industrial Chain Structure**: No specific analysis content is provided [109]

铝：国内库存小幅累积，铝价高位运行。1）氧化铝：产能高位叠加库存上升，氧化铝价格延续下跌。 本周氧化铝价格下跌1.08%为2750元/吨，氧化铝期货主力合约2602涨0.44%至2528元/吨。本周冶金级氧 化铝运行产能达8808.5万吨/年，周度开工率增加0.23pct为79.85%。短期内，氧化铝供需基本面仍维持 过剩格局，氧化铝库存持续累积，现货价格延续弱势。后续需持续关注氧化铝成本利润与运行产能情 况。2）国内库存小幅累积，铝价高位运行。本周沪铝跌0.54%至2.20万元/吨，电解铝毛利6057元/吨， 环比减少2.76%。宏观方面，美国11月失业率超预期，CPI低于预期，美联储降息预期升温，提振铝 价。国内库存累积，伦铝库存51.96万吨，环比减少0.01%，沪铝库存12.05万吨，环比增加0.43%，国内 现货库存为59.7万吨，环比增加2.40%。供给端，国内电解铝运行产能接近天花板，海外在建项目进度 缓慢，而需求端维持稳定增长，电解铝明年或出现短缺格局，铝价有望迎来上行周期。建议关注：中孚 实业、宏创控股、云铝股份、电投能源、天山铝业、神火股份、中国铝业、焦作万方。 锂：锂电需求旺盛，锂盐库存 ...

2025年12月22日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：通胀温和回落 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：再创新高 | 3 | | 铜：现货走弱，限制价格上涨 | 5 | | 锌：横盘震荡 | 7 | | 铅：库存减少，支撑价格 | 9 | | 锡：供应再出扰动 | 10 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 12 | | 氧化铝：继续探底 | 12 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 12 | | 铂：ETF增持边际上扬，中枢上移 | 14 | | 钯：小幅撤步后重拾上涨势头 | 14 | | 镍：基本面矛盾变化不大，印尼政策增加担忧 | 16 | | 不锈钢：基本面供需双弱，印尼镍矿消息扰动 | 16 | | 碳酸锂：泰利森新投产，关注需求淡季不淡的预期兑现 | 18 | | 工业硅：逢高做空为主 | 20 | | 多晶硅：区间震荡 | 20 | | 铁矿石：宏观风偏再提振，高位震荡 | 22 | | 螺纹钢：宏观情绪与基本面共振，价格坚挺 | 23 | | 热轧卷板：宏观情绪与基本面共振，价格坚挺 | 23 | | 硅铁：板块与基本面共振，走势震荡偏强 | 25 | | 锰硅：多空情绪 ...

铜周报：长单TC好于预期，铜价高位盘整 研究员： 王伟 期货从业证号：F03143400 投资咨询资格证号：Z0022141 目录 第一章 综合分析及交易策略 2 第二章 内外盘价格走势 4 第三章 铜基本面分析及周度数据跟踪 5 GALAXY FUTURES 1 综合分析及操作策略 n 宏观面 11月非农就业人口增加6.4万人，略好于市场预期，但失业率意外升至4.6%，创2021年9月以来新高，显示劳动力市场持续降温。11月核心CPI降到2.6%，其中一部分原因或 是由于美国政府关门导致的数据问题，市场对2026年降息两次的预期没有变。明年5月鲍威尔任期结束，美联储新任主席或在1月出结果，后续市场预期2026年美国货币政策 仍保持宽松。 n 铜矿 n 废铜 n 精铜 GALAXY FUTURES 2 中国冶炼厂与antogagastat敲定2026年铜精矿长单加工费benchmark为0美元/吨和0美分/磅，远好于最初-10到-15美元/吨的预期，在高升水和高硫酸价的情况下，国内外 冶炼厂减停产风险下降，原料供应问题仍是未来影响冶炼厂生产的关键因素。 12月19日SMM进口铜精矿指数（周）报-43.65美元 ...