Core Views - The report emphasizes that the metal industry is expected to see a rise in prices and profitability due to supply-demand dynamics and interest rate cuts, with a focus on industrial metals like copper and aluminum [5][6][10]. Industrial Metals - Copper prices are projected to rise as the global copper market faces a supply shortage of approximately 1% in 2026 and 0.5% in 2027, primarily due to the anticipated recovery of the Grasberg and Panama copper mines [5][23]. - The report notes that the Grasberg copper mine's production cut has led to a significant upward adjustment in copper price expectations, with a potential price increase from 79,000 CNY/ton to 82,000-83,000 CNY/ton [21][24]. - Aluminum profitability is expected to increase further, with China's electrolytic aluminum capacity utilization reaching 98%, indicating a tight supply-demand balance that could lead to price surges if demand exceeds expectations [5][30]. Precious Metals - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive, driven by factors such as weakening U.S. non-farm data, manageable inflation, and a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, which is expected to lower interest rates further [6][10]. Energy Metals - Cobalt prices are anticipated to rise due to policy changes in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which has implemented an export quota system that could create a supply-demand gap of over 10% in the global cobalt market [7]. - The lithium industry is expected to enter a new growth cycle, with demand for energy storage batteries significantly exceeding previous forecasts, leading to a potential supply shortage if production does not keep pace [8]. Minor Metals - The strategic importance of rare earth metals is highlighted, with China maintaining a dominant position in global production and supply, which is expected to strengthen prices further [10]. - Tungsten prices may rise due to recovering overseas demand and relaxed export controls, while antimony prices are also expected to increase following recent export policy adjustments [11][12]. Uranium - The demand for uranium is projected to increase alongside the growth of nuclear power generation in China, with expectations of a significant rise in nuclear capacity by 2035 [13]. Recommended Stocks - The report suggests a selection of stocks across various metal sectors, including copper, aluminum, precious metals, energy metals, and minor metals, indicating a diversified investment strategy [14].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The research report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals including copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, etc., and provides corresponding trading strategies based on macro - environment, supply - demand relationship, and cost - profit analysis [1][9][17] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai copper 2512 closed at 86,840 yuan/ton, up 0.16%. Spot trading improved slightly, with different premiums in different regions [1] - **Important Information**: Weak ADP employment data in the US, potential end of government shutdown, and production changes in some copper mines [1] - **Logic Analysis**: Loose macro - environment, tight supply in the short - term, and demand supported by power grid tenders [2][4] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for one - sided trading, long - term bullish; possible phased rebound in ratio for arbitrage; wait - and - see for options [5][6][7] Alumina - **Market Review**: The 2601 contract of alumina fell 5 yuan to 2,821 yuan/ton, and spot prices in different regions showed different trends [9] - **Related Information**: Procurement prices in different regions, government actions in Guinea, production capacity changes, and cost data [10][11][12] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply - demand surplus, expected reduction in production, but new investment pressure at the end of the year [14] - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term narrow - range rebound, beware of selling pressure; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [15][16] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The 2601 contract of Shanghai aluminum rose 190 yuan to 21,880 yuan/ton, and spot prices in different regions increased [18] - **Related Information**: US economic data, government shutdown news, inventory changes, and production capacity changes [18][19][21] - **Trading Logic**: Loose macro - environment, tight overseas supply, and domestic demand with certain resilience [22] - **Trading Strategy**: Maintain a volatile and strong trend for one - sided trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [23][24] Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The 2601 contract of casting aluminum alloy rose 175 yuan to 21,245 yuan/ton, and spot prices showed different trends [26] - **Related Information**: US economic data, cost - profit data, and changes in warehouse receipts [26][27] - **Trading Logic**: Loose macro - environment, tight waste aluminum supply, and cost support [30] - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum alloy prices are strong along with aluminum prices; wait - and - see for arbitrage and options [31] Zinc - **Market Review**: The 2512 contract of Shanghai zinc fell 0.18% to 22,680 yuan/ton, and spot trading was cold [33] - **Related Information**: Processing fee guidance price, inventory changes, and production reduction expectations in mines and smelters [34][35] - **Logic Analysis**: Tight supply at the mine end, reduced smelter profits, and limited upward space [35] - **Trading Strategy**: Range - bound for one - sided trading; hold SHFE - LME arbitrage; wait - and - see for options [37] Lead - **Market Review**: The 2512 contract of Shanghai lead rose 0.97% to 17,660 yuan/ton, and spot trading was okay [39] - **Related Information**: Inventory changes, profit conditions of recycling enterprises, and supply of recycled lead [40] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is recovering, demand is weakening, and prices are under pressure [41] - **Trading Strategy**: Short at high levels for one - sided trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options [42] Nickel - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel NI2512 fell 740 to 118,710 yuan/ton, and spot premiums changed [44][45] - **Important Information**: Indonesia's policy on nickel smelters [47] - **Logic Analysis**: Loose supply - demand, limited rebound, and expected weakening in the off - season [47] - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds for one - sided trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options [48][49][50] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main contract of stainless steel SS2512 fell 95 to 12,425 yuan/ton, and spot prices were in a certain range [52] - **Important Information**: Decline in high - nickel pig iron prices and export price cuts by Indonesian enterprises [53] - **Logic Analysis**: Weak trading atmosphere, abundant cold - rolled supply, and downward - trending costs [53][55] - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds for one - sided trading; wait - and - see for arbitrage [56][57] Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai tin 2512 closed at 292,440 yuan/ton, up 1.75%, and spot prices rose [59] - **Related Information**: US economic data and decline in Indonesian tin exports [60] - **Logic Analysis**: Potential end of US government shutdown, tight supply at the mine end, and slow demand recovery [61] - **Trading Strategy**: Tin prices may test previous highs; wait - and - see for options [62][63] Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: Policies on new energy consumption and regulation [65] - **Logic Analysis**: Reduced demand for polysilicon, increased power prices in some areas, and limited upward space [66] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Range - bound operation for one - sided trading; long Si2512 and short Si2601 for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money put options to take profit [67][68] Polysilicon - **Important Information**: News about the potential establishment of a storage platform [70] - **Logic Analysis**: Reduced supply and demand, marginal improvement in supply - demand, and short - term range - bound [70] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Range - bound operation and buy at low levels for one - sided trading; long PS2512 and short PS2601 for arbitrage; no suggestion for options [72][73][74] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The 2601 contract of lithium carbonate fell 180 to 86,580 yuan/ton, and spot prices rose [76] - **Important Information**: Policies on new energy, progress of a lithium salt project, and growth in global energy storage cell shipments [77] - **Logic Analysis**: Increased demand and supply - side disturbances support high - level prices [78] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level operation in the short - term; wait - and - see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the money put options [79][80][82]

Report Overview - Report Title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: November 12, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Copper prices are expected to continue to fluctuate strongly. The reopening of the US government may release the frozen TGA account, and the expectation of liquidity release has pushed up overnight risk assets. Although the rise of copper prices has narrowed due to the weakening of A - shares, the expected decline of domestic social inventories and the possible end of the US government shutdown will support copper prices [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Copper prices fluctuated strongly. The expectation of liquidity release pushed up overnight risk assets, and the intraday high of Shanghai copper's main contract jumped to 87,050. However, as A - shares weakened, the increase of copper prices narrowed. The spot copper rose 230 to 86,765, and the spot premium remained flat. The strengthening of copper prices slowed down the release of downstream orders, but with the gradual decline of domestic social inventories, the spot premium is expected to have limited downward space. The loss of spot imports expanded to over 700, the LME 0 - 3 contango narrowed to 14.85, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased. It is expected that domestic social inventories will continue to decline in the short term, supporting copper prices [10]. 2. Industry News - In October, the sales volume of lithium concentrate in Brazil decreased significantly month - on - month because the largest lithium spodumene producer, Sigma lithium, did not export during this period. In October, Brazilian producers exported 9,993 tons of spodumene concentrate, an 85% decrease from the unusually high 66,800 tons in September, but exports increased by about 54% year - on - year. Sigma Lithium plans to announce its 7 - 9 monthly performance after the stock market closes on November 14 [11]. - On November 10, the State Administration for Market Regulation announced that it approved the establishment of a joint venture between Codelco and SQM with additional restrictive conditions. The two companies planned to form a joint venture through asset injection to jointly operate the lithium mine project in the Atacama Salt Lake in Chile. The restrictive conditions require the two companies and the joint venture to make commitments such as continuing to fulfill contracts, supplying fairly and reasonably without discrimination, and reporting major supply changes in a timely manner, which is beneficial to the stable supply and reasonable price of lithium carbonate products [11][12]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the copper industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The macro - environment and fundamentals still offer positive support, but high copper prices suppress consumption and there is inventory accumulation pressure. As a result, Shanghai copper is expected to fluctuate strongly at a high level [3][4]. 3. Summary by Category Copper Futures Market - **Price and Volume Data**: The latest price of Shanghai Copper Main Contract is 85,940 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.23%. Its position is 207,136 lots, down 51,183 lots from the previous week, and the trading volume is 91,276 lots. Similar declines are seen in other copper futures contracts such as Shanghai Copper Index - weighted, International Copper, LME Copper 3 - month, and COMEX Copper [5]. Copper Spot Market - **Price and Premium Data**: The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper is 86,015 yuan/ton, down 1.555 yuan/ton (-1.78%) from the previous week. Different spot trading platforms show varying price changes and premium adjustments [9][10]. Copper Advanced Data - **Import Profit, TC, and Ratios**: The copper import profit is - 521.63 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of 301.49 yuan/ton (-36.63%). The copper concentrate TC is - 42 dollars/ton, with a slight change. The copper - aluminum ratio and the refined - scrap copper price difference also show certain fluctuations [11]. Copper Inventory - **Inventory Changes**: The total Shanghai Copper warehouse receipts are 43,394 tons, up 3,684 tons (9.28%) from the previous week. Different inventory types, including international copper, LME copper, COMEX copper, and social inventories, show various trends [17][19]. Copper Mid - stream Production - **Output and Capacity Utilization**: In September 2025, the refined copper production was 1.266 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.1%, and the cumulative production was 11.125 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10%. The capacity utilization rates of different copper products in the mid - stream, such as copper rods, plates, and tubes, show different levels of change [22][24]. Copper Element Import - **Import Volume and Growth**: In September 2025, the import volume of copper concentrate was 2.59 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7%. Different types of copper imports, including anode copper, cathode copper, scrap copper, and copper products, show different growth trends [28].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the non-ferrous metals market, particularly focusing on copper, lithium, cobalt, rare earths, and aluminum sectors [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Copper Market - The copper market is facing supply tightness, with several mining companies lowering production guidance, leading to a year-on-year production decline of approximately 104,000 tons in Q3 2025, potentially reaching 150,000 tons by year-end [3][4]. - The anticipated new supply for 2026 is limited to about 300,000 tons, with Freeport's recovery not meeting expectations, which could exacerbate supply issues [4]. - Demand for copper remains strong, driven by a 4% year-on-year increase in electricity consumption in the U.S., particularly in power equipment [6]. - Copper prices are expected to break through the $14,000 to $15,000 per ton range by early 2026 [7]. Rare Earths - The relaxation of rare earth export controls is expected to lead to significant overseas restocking, replicating the substantial export increases seen in Q3 2025 [1][9]. - Domestic regulations on imported ore smelting are tightening, with non-compliant smelting plants facing consolidation or shutdown, which will support the fundamentals of the rare earth market [10]. - Key companies recommended include China Rare Earth and Guangsheng Nonferrous [10]. Lithium Market - The lithium market is projected to shift from marginal oversupply to tightness, with expected storage demand growth of 80% in 2026 [11]. - Following a production halt by CATL, inventory depletion has been significant, with weekly reductions increasing from 1,000 tons to 3,000 tons due to surging storage orders [12]. - Companies to watch include Guocheng Mining, Dazhong Mining, and Shengxin Lithium Energy, which are expected to benefit from price increases [12]. Cobalt Market - Cobalt prices are anticipated to rise, despite a current price drop to around 400,000 yuan, primarily due to supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of Congo [14]. - The industry is expected to face a shortage of 20,000 to 30,000 tons of raw materials in 2026, pushing prices higher [14]. - Companies of interest include Huayou Cobalt, Li Qun Co., and Tengyuan Technology [15]. Nickel Market - The nickel market is closely tied to Indonesia's RKA B quota disclosures, as Indonesia controls 60% of global nickel supply [16]. - A lower-than-expected quota could lead to a slight increase in nickel prices, which are currently supported at $15,000 per ton [16]. Aluminum Market - The aluminum sector is experiencing upward momentum due to multiple catalysts, including potential shutdowns of major production facilities in the U.S. and Mozambique [17][18]. - China's aluminum exports account for nearly 40%, and the outlook for external demand is optimistic, particularly following recent monetary easing in the U.S. and Europe [18]. Additional Important Insights - The overall sentiment in the metals market is bullish, with expectations of a comprehensive bull market for both non-ferrous and ferrous metals in 2026 [2]. - The focus on energy transition and technological advancements in mining and smelting processes is expected to influence supply dynamics significantly [5][10].

Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to continue a "slow bull" trend in November, driven by the implementation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and consensus on trade issues between China and the U.S.[4] - Market valuations are likely to recover from tariff disruptions experienced in October, with improving market confidence and risk appetite in the technology sector[4]. Investment Strategy - Focus on three main lines: 1. Technology growth, particularly in AI hardware like storage and optical modules, as well as high-demand sectors such as energy storage and power grids[4]. 2. Market hotspots, including military industry and gaming sectors, guided by policy and fundamental improvements[4]. 3. Industries benefiting from "anti-involution" policies, such as chemicals and photovoltaics, optimizing supply-demand dynamics[4]. Key Industry Recommendations - **Metals**: Luoyang Molybdenum Co. is expected to increase copper production capacity by approximately 60% by 2028, benefiting from rising copper prices[9]. - **Chemicals**: Yara International is expanding its potash production capacity, with a projected output of 1.815 million tons in 2024[10]. - **New Energy**: Sungrow Power Supply is positioned to gain significantly from the growing U.S. data center market, with expected profit increases[11]. - **Machinery**: Magpower is expanding its product range and increasing its international market share, with projected net profits of 4.5 billion and 9.4 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively[12]. - **Military**: Guangdong Hongda is integrating quality defense assets, enhancing revenue and profit in the defense sector[13]. - **Automotive**: Top Group is expected to benefit from partnerships with major automotive brands, with projected net profits of 28.0 billion yuan in 2025[17]. - **Home Appliances**: Anker Innovations is projected to achieve net profits of 26.57 billion yuan in 2025, maintaining a strong growth trajectory[18]. - **Electronics**: Zhaoyi Innovation is experiencing a robust growth cycle, with a projected net profit of 2.39 billion yuan in 2025[19]. - **Communications**: Zhongji Xuchuang is expected to see net profits of 101.4 billion yuan in 2025, with a significant growth rate of 96%[20]. - **Media**: Kaiying Network is expanding its product offerings, with a 65% growth in information services in the first half of the year[21].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Report's Core View - In November, copper prices will fluctuate at high levels, and the operation strategy of buying on dips should be maintained. There are liquidity easing expectations in the macro - market, and the short - term concern about Sino - US trade issues has significantly eased. Fundamentally, overseas ore supply pressure persists, domestic smelter maintenance impacts deepen, and most inventories are at relatively low levels except in the US. The demand side has strong resilience. After copper prices hit a new high, they lack upward drive and investors need to be vigilant about tail risks and seize adjustment buying opportunities [5][6] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1.后市研判 (Outlook for the Future) - In November, copper prices will fluctuate at high levels. With the market gradually reaching a consensus on tightening supply, the psychological upper limit of the downstream for copper prices is gradually rising. After copper prices hit a new high, they lack upward drive due to the Fed's hawkish remarks and the rebound of the US dollar index and US Treasury yields. Investors should be vigilant about tail risks and seize adjustment buying opportunities [5][6] 2.行情回顾 (Market Review) - In October, copper prices were generally strong. Affected by overseas mine operation disruptions, copper prices gapped up after the National Day holiday. Then, due to the US provoking a "trade war" against China, copper prices slightly corrected. With the progress of Sino - US negotiations and the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in October, copper prices rose again and broke through the highest point in May 2024 [8][9] 3.宏观面 (Macroeconomic Aspects) - **Interest Rate Policy**: The Fed cut interest rates in October, but a further rate cut in December is "far from certain". The US government's "shutdown" in October affected the release of economic data. The CPI data in September showed that overall inflation was controllable, which further consolidated the market's expectation of the Fed's rate cut in October [11][14] - **Sino - US Trade Relations**: In October, the US provoked a "trade war" against China again, causing copper prices to fall. However, through Sino - US economic and trade consultations, the two sides reached a consensus on multiple issues, and the short - term concern about Sino - US trade issues significantly eased, enhancing market confidence in the economic growth of the two countries [16] - **Domestic Economic and Policy Situation**: China's Q3 GDP grew by 4.8% year - on - year. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was held, and the "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal was reviewed and approved, which will bring policy benefits to the terminal application fields. The copper industry should prevent "involution - style" vicious competition and ensure the safety of the industrial chain and supply chain. The US has adjusted its copper resource strategy, which may change the global copper supply flow [18][22][23] 4.基本面 (Fundamental Aspects) - **Supply Side**: In September, China's copper ore concentrate imports decreased month - on - month, with a sharp drop in shipments from Chile. Overseas mine operation disturbances increased, and the processing fee for imported copper concentrates remained in the negative range. Except for the significant accumulation of copper inventories in the US, LME and SHFE copper inventories decreased or remained stable. In October, the output of electrolytic copper continued to decline due to the peak of smelter maintenance, the impact of recycled copper policies, and the low processing fee of copper concentrates [24][28][31][35] - **Demand Side**: In September, China's scrap copper imports increased month - on - month and year - on - year. The expected decline in the operating rate of the refined copper rod industry in October was due to the high copper price. As of September, the cumulative installed power generation capacity increased year - on - year, and the new photovoltaic installed capacity is expected to continue to grow. The real estate market is weak, with a decline in construction area, new construction area, and sales area. The automobile market maintained a high - growth trend, and the new energy vehicle market performed well. The home appliance market entered a seasonal off - season [39][43][47][50][56][59]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper investment rating: Cautiously bullish; Arbitrage: On hold; Options: short put [7] 2. Core View of the Report - The gold price rebounded and the copper price reached a new high yesterday. The gold - copper ratio may still need to converge in the future. However, as the demand side has no outstanding performance, enterprises with selling hedging needs can choose the right time to operate. Currently, the pattern of copper prices being prone to rise and hard to fall is difficult to change [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On October 29, 2025, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 87,220 yuan/ton and closed at 88,710 yuan/ton, a 1.99% increase from the previous trading day's close. The night - session closed at 89,130 yuan/ton, a 0.47% increase from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot quotation of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of 130 to a premium of 10 yuan/ton against the 2511 contract, with an average discount of 60 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous day. The spot price range was 87,550 - 87,980 yuan/ton. Market procurement and sales sentiment warmed up. If copper prices continue to be strong, downstream will mainly make rigid - demand purchases, while traders may replenish stocks moderately [2] Important Information Summary - The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP to 3.75% - 4.00%, the second cut this year, and will end balance - sheet reduction from December 1, 2025. Fed Chairman Powell said a December rate cut is "far from certain", and FOMC members are divided [3] Mining End - First Quantum Minerals' Sentinel mine produced 51,336 tons of copper in Q3 2025, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 8,228 tons. The monthly average ore - grinding throughput exceeded 5 million tons, a 14% quarter - on - quarter increase. The company is solving the fatigue problem of the 2nd ball mill's flange bolts and expects the 2nd in - pit crusher to be put into operation in Q4 2025 [4] Smelting and Import - The "Guidelines for Green Transformation of the Non - ferrous Metal Industry in Henan Province" proposes to replace traditional roasting with bio - leaching in copper smelting, use low - arsenic and low - fluorine - chlorine raw materials, and adopt advanced processes to reduce emissions [5] Consumption - China Power Construction is participating in the UAE RTC photo - storage project, which will build a 5.2GW photovoltaic power station + 19GWh battery energy - storage system. China Power Construction is responsible for the 2.1GW photovoltaic + 7.6GWh energy - storage part of the northern block. The project is expected to be put into operation in 2027 [6] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 1,400 tons to 135,350 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 101 tons to 35,745 tons. On October 29, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 184,500 tons, a 2,900 - ton increase from the previous week [6] Price and Basis Data - The spot (premium/discount) of SMM 1 copper, prices of different copper types, LME (0 - 3), LME inventory, SHFE inventory, COMEX inventory, warehouse receipts, LME cancellation rate, and various spreads, arbitrage ratios, and import profits are presented with data for different time points (October 30, 29, 23, and September 30, 2025) [25][26][27]

Report Date - The report is dated October 29, 2025 [1][5][8] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - The report provides trend forecasts for various commodities, including copper, zinc, lead, etc., with most commodities expected to show oscillatory trends [2] Summary by Commodity Metals - **Copper**: Awaiting the Fed's interest rate decision, prices are oscillating. The trend strength is 1 [2][5][7] - **Zinc**: Continuing to oscillate. The trend strength is 0 [2][8][10] - **Lead**: Overseas inventories are continuously decreasing, supporting prices. The trend strength is 0 [2][11] - **Aluminum**: Continuing to oscillate. Alumina is in short - term sideways movement, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend strength for all is 0 [2][13][14] - **Nickel**: There is a game between smelting inventory accumulation and nickel ore concerns, and nickel prices are oscillating in a narrow range. Stainless steel has limited downward potential and lacks upward drivers. The trend strength for both is 0 [2][15][17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot tender price is at a high level, showing a strong - side operation. The trend strength is 1 [2][18][21] - **Industrial Silicon**: Warehouse receipts are being cleared, and there is obvious bottom support. The trend strength is 1 [2][22][25] - **Polysilicon**: Market sentiment has cooled, and there is a risk of a decline. The trend strength is -1 [2][23][25] - **Iron Ore**: Oscillating repeatedly. The trend strength is 0 [2][26][27] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Driven by macro sentiment, steel prices are oscillating on the strong side. The trend strength for both is 0 [2][28][31] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide**: Oscillating in a wide range. The trend strength for both is 0 [2][33][35] - **Coke**: Oscillating on the strong side. The trend strength is 0 [2][36][38] - **Coking Coal**: Supported by fundamentals, oscillating on the strong side. The trend strength is 0 [2][37][38] Others - **Log**: Oscillating repeatedly. The trend strength is 0 [2][39][42] - **Para - Xylene**: In a high - level oscillatory market. The trend strength is 0 [2][43][48] - **PTA**: Oil prices have corrected, and valuations have declined. The trend strength is 0 [2][43][48] - **MEG**: In a short - term oscillatory market. The trend strength is 0 [2][43][48] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Butadiene is weak, and the price of cis - butadiene rubber is under pressure. The trend strength is -1 [2][50][52] - **LLDPE**: Mainly oscillating. No trend strength provided [2] - **PP**: Stopping falling in the short term and oscillating in the medium term. No trend strength provided [2] - **Caustic Soda**: The far - month valuation is suppressed. No trend strength provided [2] - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. No trend strength provided [2] - **Methanol**: Oscillating under pressure. No trend strength provided [2] - **Urea**: Spot trading has weakened, and pressure is gradually increasing. No trend strength provided [2] - **Styrene**: Mainly oscillating in the short term. No trend strength provided [2] - **Soda Ash**: There is little change in the spot market. No trend strength provided [2] - **LPG**: The upward driving force is limited, and attention should be paid to cost changes. No trend strength provided [2] - **Propylene**: Supply and demand are relatively loose, and it is oscillating weakly in the short term. No trend strength provided [2] - **PVC**: Oscillating at a low level. No trend strength provided [2] - **Fuel Oil**: Retreating in the short term, with continued increased volatility. No trend strength provided [2] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Temporarily stronger than high - sulfur fuel oil, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market is temporarily stable. No trend strength provided [2] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Oscillating and consolidating. No trend strength provided [2] - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip**: Rebounding in the short term due to positive demand feedback. No trend strength provided [4] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Oscillating at a low level. No trend strength provided [4] - **Pure Benzene**: Mainly oscillating in the short term. No trend strength provided [4] - **Palm Oil**: The de - stocking in the producing areas is slow, and attention should be paid to the lower support. No trend strength provided [4] - **Soybean Oil**: US soybeans have rebounded, and the oil - meal ratio has declined. No trend strength provided [4] - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans are strong, and Dalian soybean meal is rebounding and oscillating. No trend strength provided [4] - **Soybean No.1**: Oscillating on the strong side. No trend strength provided [4] - **Corn**: Oscillating weakly. No trend strength provided [4] - **Sugar**: Weak overseas and strong domestic. No trend strength provided [4] - **Cotton**: The cost of new cotton has increased, supporting the futures price of cotton. No trend strength provided [4] - **Egg**: Maintaining adjustment. No trend strength provided [4] - **Live Pig**: The sentiment in the spot market has declined, awaiting confirmation. No trend strength provided [4] - **Peanut**: Attention should be paid to the spot market. No trend strength provided [4]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily research report on non - ferrous metals, covering copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, cast aluminum alloy, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate [1] Group 2: Market Analysis of Each Metal Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Copper 2512 contract closed at 88,370 yuan/ton, up 1.73%, with an increase of 29,581 lots in the Shanghai Copper Index to 613,100 lots. The spot copper price soared, weakening downstream procurement sentiment, and the spot discount widened [1] - **Important Information**: The slowdown of the US core CPI in September increased the expectation of two interest rate cuts by the Fed this year. Indonesia may allow copper concentrate exports. SMM estimated that the electrolytic copper output in October would drop to 1.0825 million tons [1][3] - **Logic Analysis**: Macro sentiment improved, and the supply of copper ore was tight, while consumption was weak with some resilience. The market was expected to have an increase in supply and weak demand this week [1][3] - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a long - on - dips strategy for single - side trading, continue to hold cross - market positive spreads, and consider cross - period positive spreads after the domestic inventory starts to decline. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards options [4][5][6] Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2601 contract rose 11 yuan to 2,829 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 5,441 lots to 488,900 lots. The spot price showed a narrow decline [7] - **Related Information**: Xinjiang and Shandong had alumina spot transactions. The national alumina inventory increased by 44,000 tons to 4.061 million tons as of October 23. The Australian alumina price decreased [8] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand surplus of alumina increased after the downstream stocking was completed. The price was expected to bottom out in the short term, and a rebound might occur if production cuts expanded [11] - **Trading Strategy**: There is an expectation of further production cuts in November for single - side trading, with a short - term narrow rebound. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards arbitrage and options [11][12] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2512 contract rose 130 yuan to 21,360 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 28,105 lots to 635,200 lots. The spot price increased [14] - **Related Information**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations reached a basic consensus. Some overseas aluminum smelters had production cuts. The electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased slightly [14][15] - **Logic Analysis**: Macro sentiment was positive. Overseas supply was tight, and domestic consumption had some resilience [18] - **Trading Strategy**: The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly following the external market for single - side trading. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards arbitrage and options [19] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The cast aluminum alloy 2512 contract rose 35 yuan to 20,715 yuan/ton. The spot price remained stable [21] - **Related Information**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations reached a basic consensus. The cast aluminum alloy warehouse receipts increased, and the import and export data showed certain changes [21][22][24] - **Logic Analysis**: Macro factors were positive. The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, and demand had some support [25] - **Trading Strategy**: The aluminum alloy price is expected to fluctuate strongly following the aluminum price for single - side trading. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards arbitrage and options [26][27] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Zinc 2512 rose 0.34% to 22,365 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 94 lots to 213,500 lots. The spot trading was not improved [29] - **Related Information**: The domestic zinc inventory increased slightly. Shengda Resources' subsidiary was approved to resume work [30] - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic supply was abundant, and the external market was strong. The export profit widened, and the Shanghai Zinc price was likely to rise [31][33] - **Trading Strategy**: Try to go long on dips for single - side trading. Consider a buy - SHFE and sell - LME strategy based on export conditions. Sell out - of - the - money put options [34] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Lead 2512 fell 0.06% to 17,520 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 6,702 lots to 129,200 lots. The spot price decreased, and the procurement enthusiasm declined [36] - **Related Information**: A large lead - battery enterprise in East China planned to cut production. The social inventory of lead ingots decreased [37] - **Logic Analysis**: The short - term lead price was driven up by funds, but the medium - long - term fundamentals were under pressure [38] - **Trading Strategy**: Go short on rallies for single - side trading. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards arbitrage and options [39] Nickel - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Nickel main contract NI2512 rose 420 to 122,400 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased by 12,478 lots. The spot premium of Jinchuan nickel decreased [41] - **Important Information**: Indonesia promoted a cooperation project with Huayou Cobalt. A new nickel brand applied for LME certification. Norilsk Nickel maintained its 2025 production forecast [42] - **Logic Analysis**: Macro sentiment improved, but the LME nickel inventory limited the upward space of the nickel price. The price was expected to fluctuate within a range [42] - **Trading Strategy**: The nickel price is expected to fluctuate within a range for single - side trading. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards arbitrage. Sell a wide - straddle combination of the 2512 contract for options [43][44][45] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The stainless - steel main contract SS2512 rose 10 to 12,815 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased by 27,223 lots. The spot price was stable [47] - **Important Information**: The export of Indonesian stainless steel to Taiwan increased, and a high - end stainless - steel project in Jiangsu was progressing [49] - **Logic Analysis**: Terminal demand was not optimistic at the end of the peak season, and the cost support was not strong. The price was boosted by the reduction of warehouse receipts and general commodity price increases [49] - **Trading Strategy**: The stainless - steel price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, with attention to the upper resistance. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards arbitrage [50][51] Tin - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Tin 2512 contract closed at 286,720 yuan/ton, up 3,260 yuan/ton or 1.15%, and the position increased by 6,739 lots to 75,935 lots. The spot price increased slightly, and the trading was not active [53] - **Related Information**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations reached a basic consensus. The US CPI growth was lower than expected. The domestic mobile phone shipment data was released [54][56] - **Logic Analysis**: The Fed's interest rate cut expectation and domestic policies were positive for the tin price, but the terminal demand recovery was slow. The supply of tin ore was tight [57] - **Trading Strategy**: The tin price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to positive domestic macro expectations and the Fed's interest rate cut expectation. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards options [58][59] Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: The industrial silicon export volume in September was 70,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8% and a year - on - year increase of 8%. The import volume in January - September decreased by 64% year - on - year [61] - **Logic Analysis**: The production in the northwest was at a high level, and the southwest would reduce production in November. The demand was stable, and there was a possibility of inventory reduction. The short - term price was expected to fluctuate [62] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Go long on dips for single - side trading. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards arbitrage. Sell out - of - the - money put options [64][65][66] Polysilicon - **Important Information**: The domestic new photovoltaic installed capacity from January to September was 240.27GW, a year - on - year increase of 49% [68] - **Logic Analysis**: The polysilicon production in the southwest would decrease in November. The demand for silicon wafers was average, and there was a possibility of inventory accumulation. The price was expected to strengthen after capacity integration [69] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Hold long positions for single - side trading, conduct reverse spreads on far - month contracts for arbitrage, and hold long call options [70][71][72] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The lithium carbonate 2601 contract rose 2,020 to 81,900 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 50,361 lots. The spot price increased [74] - **Important Information**: The performance of Salt Lake Co., Ltd., EVE Energy, and Shengxin Lithium Energy was announced. Whengsheng Technology achieved large - scale supply of battery materials [75][77] - **Logic Analysis**: The demand was driven by the growth of power and energy storage, and the supply of lithium ore was tight. The inventory and warehouse receipts decreased. The market was bullish [77] - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on pullbacks for single - side trading. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards arbitrage. Sell out - of - the - money put options [78] Group 3: Data Tables and Graphs - The report also provides daily data tables for each metal, including price, spread, inventory, and other information, as well as graphs showing the trends of price, spread, inventory, etc. for each metal [80][91]