Group 1: A-Share Market Performance - The A-share market is approaching the 3500-point mark, with the ChiNext Index rising by 2.39%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.46%, and the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.7%, closing at 3497.48 points [1][9] - The total trading volume for the day reached 1.45 trillion, an increase of 245.3 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] - The solar energy sector experienced a significant surge, with the Solar 50 ETF rising nearly 6% and other solar ETFs increasing by around 5.5% [1][2] Group 2: Industrial and AI Sector Growth - Industrial Fulian, a leading company in the AI computing sector, saw its stock hit the daily limit due to strong earnings expectations, with a projected net profit of 11.958 billion to 12.158 billion yuan for the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of 36.84% to 39.12% [7] - The AI computing sector's growth is attributed to high demand for AI infrastructure, including 800G switches and AI servers, driven by the ongoing AI wave [7] - The stock performance of Industrial Fulian has historically shown a correlation with the overall market trends, often serving as a leading indicator for market movements [7] Group 3: Global Investment Trends - A German pension fund, KZVK, has allocated $50 million to invest in Chinese stocks through a Hong Kong asset management firm, indicating a renewed interest in the Chinese market [12][14] - The global investment landscape is shifting, with increasing inquiries from investors about opportunities in China, driven by attractive valuations and improving fundamentals [17] - Despite the positive outlook, overseas funds have not yet significantly re-entered the Chinese market, with a notable focus on Japan and European markets instead [14][17] Group 4: Bond ETF Market Dynamics - The recent launch of 10 technology innovation bond ETFs raised a total of 30 billion yuan in a single day, marking a significant event in the bond ETF market [18] - The bond ETF market has seen a net inflow of 184.59 billion yuan this year, with significant contributions from various bond indices [18][19] - The total scale of bond ETFs has reached 390.7 billion yuan, with expectations to surpass 400 billion yuan soon [20]

Core Viewpoint - The current anti-involution policies are expected to strengthen the trend of "reducing capital expenditure," leading to a more certain and sustained supply-demand turning point starting in mid-2026 [1][4]. Group 1: Anti-Involution Policies - The anti-involution policies are reminiscent of the supply-side reforms from 2016-2017, which can be broken down into three core elements: "reducing capacity," "reducing output," and demand-side stimulation [2]. - "Reducing capital expenditure" is an inevitable trend, with the current growth rate of capital expenditure in the midstream manufacturing sector reaching a new low since 2012 [3]. - The impact of "reducing capacity" will manifest in three ways: delayed effects from reduced capital expenditure, abandonment of existing projects, and guiding the survival of the fittest among existing enterprises [3][4]. Group 2: Supply-Demand Dynamics - The most significant impact of the current anti-involution is that by mid-2026, the growth rate of fixed asset formation in midstream manufacturing will be lower than the nominal GDP growth rate, enhancing the visibility of the supply-demand turning point [4]. - The current low capacity utilization and weak internal investment willingness among enterprises suggest further room for decline in capital expenditure growth [4]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The improvement in the supply-demand dynamics in midstream manufacturing and the easing of the anti-involution narrative are seen as crucial components for a bull market expected in 2026-2027 [8]. - The recent breakthrough of the Shanghai Composite Index has become an investment narrative, enhancing risk appetite, although the current fundamental expectations and profit accumulation are not yet at bull market levels [8][9]. - The focus on high-dividend stocks, including bank shares, is deemed a long-term correct strategy, but short-term dynamics indicate that this trend may not be sustainable [10]. Group 4: Sector Performance - The sectors currently showing significant profit expansion include banking, steel, and electricity equipment, while sectors like defense and non-ferrous metals are experiencing contraction [14]. - The short-term market focus is on sectors such as steel, building materials, and electrical equipment, with expectations of improved profitability in various manufacturing sub-sectors by Q4 2025 [11]. Group 5: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy should consider the anticipated structural changes in the market, with a focus on sectors that will benefit from the anti-involution policies and the expected recovery in profitability [11][14]. - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to perform well in the potential bull market, driven by factors such as concentrated IPOs and early dividends [11].

Group 1 - The technology growth sector is expected to be the main investment theme for the next three to five years, particularly in AI-related areas [1][2] - The A-share market is currently at a relative bottom in terms of valuation, policy, and performance, indicating long-term investment value in equity assets [1] - A series of favorable policies have been introduced to stabilize the market, including increased ETF holdings by the Central Huijin and optimized insurance fund regulations [1] Group 2 - The AI computing power industry chain is anticipated to see demand exceed market expectations due to the construction of major AI clusters in the US, Europe, and the Middle East [3] - The automotive industry is shifting towards smart technology, with significant investment opportunities expected in smart driving and intelligent cockpit systems by 2025 [3][4] - Internet companies embracing AI and AI hardware firms are likely to see sustained performance improvements as they leverage technological advancements and ecosystem advantages [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market - A" [9] Core Insights - The overseas AI computing sector has experienced a significant rebound, driven by five key factors reflecting optimism in the industry, increasing downstream application demand, supply from upstream chip manufacturers, confidence from major players, and infrastructure investment [7][22] - Major cloud providers in North America reported a total capital expenditure (Capex) of $71.9 billion in Q1 2025, a 62% year-on-year increase, indicating a strong consensus on AI as a key industry trend [3][18] - The rapid growth in token usage, with Google's monthly average token calls projected to increase from 9.7 trillion in April 2024 to 480 trillion in April 2025, signifies a surge in demand for computing power, particularly in AI applications [4][19] - Broadcom, a leader in ASIC chips, reported quarterly revenue exceeding $15 billion, with AI business revenue surpassing $4.4 billion, reflecting a 46% year-on-year growth, as demand for low-cost ASIC chips rises [5][20] - NVIDIA's CEO emphasized the strong and sustained demand for AI, marking the beginning of a decade-long infrastructure buildout, with the company's stock reaching a historic high of $160.98 and a market cap exceeding $3.92 trillion [6][21] Summary by Sections Capex - North American cloud giants reported a total Capex of $71.9 billion in Q1 2025, up 62% year-on-year, with optimistic forecasts for continued investment in AI infrastructure [3][18] Token - Microsoft's Azure AI infrastructure processed over 100 trillion tokens in Q1 2025, a fivefold increase year-on-year, while Google's token usage is expected to grow 50 times within a year, indicating a rapid increase in demand for AI computing power [4][19] ASIC - Broadcom's ASIC chip revenue reached over $4.4 billion, a 46% increase year-on-year, as the demand for AI applications shifts towards more cost-effective ASIC solutions [5][20] NVIDIA - NVIDIA's stock hit a record high, with the CEO highlighting the ongoing strong demand for AI and the company's strategic roadmap for product updates, reinforcing its leadership in the AI computing sector [6][21] Stargate - OpenAI and Oracle announced a significant expansion of their Stargate AI computing infrastructure project, with an initial investment of $100 billion, aiming to enhance AI infrastructure in the U.S. [7][22]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the transformative opportunities in the innovative pharmaceutical sector, predicting that 2025 will mark a significant year for revenue growth, profit breakthroughs, and valuation increases in the industry [4][5]. Group 1: Innovative Drug Investment Outlook - The innovative drug sector is entering a "three-dimensional screening era" characterized by major disease categories, clinical data validation, and global competition [4]. - 2025 is anticipated to be the starting point for collective revenue growth among innovative drug companies, with 80% of A-share and Hong Kong-listed innovative drug firms expected to see revenue increases following 2024's medical insurance negotiations [5]. - The period from 2025 to 2028 is projected to be crucial for many Chinese innovative drug companies to enter profitability, contrasting with previous years where only a few companies achieved profits [5]. Group 2: Key Investment Areas in Innovative Drugs - Focus areas for investment include: 1. Bispecific antibodies, with the first approved product in China and several in late-stage clinical trials [8]. 2. Antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs), where domestic companies lead in the development of the next generation of ADCs [8]. 3. Targeted therapies, with the global oncology drug market exceeding $150 billion, and a significant share expected to come from domestic small molecules by 2030 [8]. 4. Autoimmune diseases, driven by environmental factors and improved insurance coverage, with a focus on kidney disease drugs showing substantial growth [8]. Group 3: Investment Strategy and Methodology - The investment strategy in the pharmaceutical sector is based on three selection criteria: 1. Focus on large market spaces, such as oncology and metabolic diseases, to mitigate R&D risks [10]. 2. Prefer clear competitive landscapes, such as orphan drugs, with minimal competition expected in the next three years [10]. 3. Target products with optimal clinical data, avoiding those that do not meet top-tier standards [10]. Group 4: Insights from Fund Managers - Fund manager Wu Qingyu emphasizes the importance of absolute return thinking, focusing on high-growth sectors while maintaining valuation discipline [11][12]. - Wu's investment approach combines top-down and bottom-up strategies, selecting high-growth industries and then identifying companies with superior growth rates and matching valuations [15]. - The focus on concentrated holdings is driven by strong research conclusions, aiming for higher alpha returns through precise stock selection [17]. Group 5: Future Investment Directions - Wu Qingyu identifies three key sectors for future investment: 1. AI computing power, driven by increased domestic demand for servers and capital investments from companies like ByteDance [19]. 2. Investment opportunities in "AI new hardware" arising from the integration of AI models with downstream hardware [19]. 3. The automotive sector's trend towards smart technology, with certain domestic manufacturers expected to gain market share [19].

兄弟们，今天可是6月30日，上半年最后一个交易日，A股这盘棋下得可太有意思了。帮主我盯着盘面上蹿下跳的红绿柱子，突然发现三个关键信号正在悄 悄发酵，这可能会直接影响咱们下半年的投资方向。 （本文作者：帮主郑重，20年财经老炮，专注中长线价值投资。关注我，带你穿透财经迷雾，抓住确定性机会。） 对咱们中长线投资者来说，下半年的机会其实就藏在两条主线里。第一条是"业绩确定性+政策红利"的硬核赛道。半导体设备里的中微公司、北方华创，AI 算力里的联特科技、中际旭创，这些公司订单都排到明年了，再加上国产替代的政策东风，妥妥的"双保险"。第二条是"防御+进攻"的高股息转型标的。华 能国际、国电电力这些火电企业，一边享受容量电价改革带来的盈利改善，一边向绿电转型，进可攻退可守，特别适合震荡市布局。 先看技术面这出"双簧戏"。上周五沪指虽然被银行股拽着跌了0.7%，但深成指和创业板指却逆势翻红，尤其是创业板指站稳了20日均线，这就像拔河比赛里 的关键支点。更有意思的是，MACD周线金叉眼看就要成型了，历史上这种情况出现后，大盘平均能走出25%以上的涨幅。不过KDJ指标有点唱反调，J值 从高位回落，提醒咱们短期可能会有技术性调 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the successful investment strategies of fund manager Wu Qingyu, who has achieved significant returns through a focus on absolute returns and a GARP (Growth at a Reasonable Price) investment philosophy [1][2][3]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - Wu Qingyu emphasizes the importance of absolute return thinking, which combines selecting high-quality assets at reasonable prices to achieve long-term gains [2][3]. - The GARP strategy aligns with Wu's investment approach, focusing on balancing valuation and growth to ensure investments are made at low or reasonable valuations [2][3]. Group 2: Market Strategy - Wu adopts a long-term perspective, prioritizing the intrinsic value of companies over short-term market fluctuations, and is willing to endure temporary volatility for potential long-term gains [3][4]. - He identifies structural opportunities in various industries by analyzing supply-demand mismatches, particularly in sectors like AI, manufacturing, and renewable energy [4][7]. Group 3: Stock Selection and Portfolio Management - Wu employs a combination of top-down and bottom-up approaches in stock selection, focusing on high-growth sectors while adhering to GARP principles [4][5]. - He maintains a concentrated portfolio, believing that strong research backing is essential for high-conviction investments, which can lead to superior returns [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Wu is optimistic about the equity market, anticipating a bullish trend supported by global liquidity and domestic economic policies [7]. - He is particularly focused on three key sectors: AI computing, new hardware related to AI, and the automotive industry's shift towards smart technologies [7].

证券研究报告|投资策略周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 29 日 [Table_Title] 全球降息空间再度打开，A 股"稳中向好"延续 [Table_Title2] 投资策略周报 [Table_Summary] ·市场回顾： 随着中东局势快速降温和海外降息预期发酵，全球股市风险偏好明显提振，美股标普 500 和纳斯达克指数均创历 史新高。A 股指数在大金融板块的带动下放量走强，沪指"三连阳"突破年内高点，市场主题投资活跃，其中军 工、非银金融、稳定币概念等领涨；A 股主要指数普涨，本周北证 50、微盘股指、创业板指、中证 2000 指数领 涨，仅红利指数下跌。商品方面，国际油价和黄金大幅回落；外汇方面，美元指数继续下行，年内跌幅已超 10%， 离岸人民币兑美元汇率升至 7.15 附近。 ·市场展望：全球降息空间再度打开，A 股"稳中向好"延续。海外方面，尽管美联储内部分歧仍较大，但随着地 缘风险降温和油价回落，市场已开启降息交易；国内方面，受益于中长期资金的持续入市，年初至今 A 股指数中 枢逐渐抬升。本周 A 股成交放量和赚钱效应抬升，投资者风险偏好明显回暖并再度打开震荡中枢上沿。 ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that the market is experiencing a short-term upward breakthrough due to several factors, including the stabilization of capital market expectations and the influx of long-term funds, particularly from insurance companies [1][2] - The recent geopolitical tensions have eased, leading to a recovery in global risk appetite, alongside expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, which has contributed to the market's positive momentum [2][5] - The index's breakthrough has directly boosted risk appetite, resulting in increased trading activity, particularly in small-cap stocks and technology growth sectors [2][8] Group 2 - The article suggests that multiple positive factors are expected to converge between 2026 and 2027, potentially marking a core bull market phase, although the current market still shows signs of weakness [5][6] - The overall economic outlook remains weak, with concerns about macroeconomic support and limited structural improvements, indicating that the market is not yet ready for a bull market [6][8] - The short-term market may still experience speculative index rallies, but significant upward trends are anticipated to begin in late 2025 [8] Group 3 - The article identifies specific sectors with high elasticity for investment opportunities, including stablecoins, national defense, and military industries, as well as the overseas AI computing power industry [8] - High-dividend assets are expected to undergo a revaluation in the medium term, with a focus on banking stocks, which may face adjustment pressure due to excessive short-term attention [8] - The article maintains a structural bullish outlook for A-shares, emphasizing the reliance on breakthroughs in technology industries and highlighting three asset categories closely related to China's strategic opportunities: gold, rare earths, and national defense [8]

和讯自选股写手 风险提示：以上内容仅作为作者或者嘉宾的观点，不代表和讯的任何立场，不构成与和讯相关的任何投 资建议。在作出任何投资决定前，投资者应根据自身情况考虑投资产品相关的风险因素，并于需要时咨 询专业投资顾问意见。和讯竭力但不能证实上述内容的真实性、准确性和原创性，对此和讯不做任何保 证和承诺。 下个周期，谁来带头？ 市场当前有固态电池、稳定币 + 金融、军工三条主线。固态和稳定币今日高位分歧、低位补涨，金融 股前排延续、后排分化，军工继续加强。预计固态和稳定币明日强分化，军工明日开始分化。分化后这 三条线能否走强待察，可关注：一是分化调整时有无活跃品种；二是分化后有无新领涨品种，若有主线 地位或降低；三是 7 月中报业绩炒作是否到来。目前部分中报业绩预报股如泰凌微、广大特材获高溢 价，AI 算力核心股如新易盛等创新高。AI 算力、半导体等业绩预期方向走势将影响三条主线最终走 向。投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 股票名称["四方精创","京北方","泰凌微","广大特材","新易盛","胜宏科技"] 板块名称["固态电池","稳定币+金融","军工 ...