今日A股市场呈现"科技退潮、防御崛起"的震荡格局，银行、煤炭等低估值蓝筹逆势走强，而半导体、 CPO等科技成长赛道遭遇重挫；港股市场则在科技权重股拖累下加速下行，恒生科技指数失守6000点 整数关口，创阶段性新低。两市资金呈现"避险趋同"特征，低估值、高股息板块成为存量资金抱团方 向，科技成长板块则因内外利空叠加出现连锁抛售。 资金层面，A股主力资金净流出629.82亿元，半导体、光模块等科技板块抛压集中，而银行、保险板块 获逆势加仓；港股南下资金虽未再现前期大规模流入，但内银股获外资与内资同步增持，内银股龙头单 日涨幅超4%形成板块示范效应。此外，机构调仓动作明显，三季报业绩超预期的保险股带动板块估值 修复，反映资金对盈利确定性的追逐。 展望后市，短期内A股与港股或仍将维持承压格局，科技类成长股的调整或持续至行业景气度信号明确 或政策实质性落地；主板蓝筹、低估值消费与金融板块，以及煤炭等受益于季节性需求的周期板块，具 备更强的防御属性，有望成为资金避风港。 主要指数表现 A股市场日内分化加剧。上证指数低开后震荡抗跌，收盘跌0.62%报3865.23点，守住3850点支撑；深证 成指、创业板指分别重挫2.54 ...

中美关系再度复杂化，股指受冲击回落 日期: 2025-10-12 【股指期货周报20251012】中美关系再度复杂化，股指受冲击回落 策略综述及建议 策略综术 【指数判断】 中国第一次对外实行"长臂管辖"，超美国预期，特朗普反制加征关税。中美摩擦加深，短期影响股指走势，尤其是高估值科技股。股指预计迎来调整，但回调 幅度或弱于四月份,不必过分悲观;中长期来看,国内市场为流动性叙事,增量资金源源不断,仍有上行动能。 【逻辑跟踪】 【风险提示】 浙商期货有限公司 报告撰写人:周志超 从业资格号: F03087618 投资咨询号: Z0019474 全球指数收盘价 一、市场表现 全球指数涨跌幅 周涨跌幅/年初至今涨跌幅 申万一级行业涨跌幅 货币投放 MLF投放 二、流动性 狭义流动性 逆回购利率/DR007 M2/社会融资规模 广义流动性 股指周报目录 成交额/换手率/涨跌家数比 三、交易数据及情绪 基金份额/融资融券/开户数 北向资金/南向资金 国内主要指数PE/PE分位数 四、指数估值 四大期指股债性价比/股债性价比分位数 申万一级行业PE/PE分位数 五、指数行业权重 四大期指行业权重分布 请务必阅读正文之后的 ...

来源：市场投研资讯 （来源：华西研究） 华西宏观 （一）行情回顾：波折不改牛市底色 9月，市场在波折中向上攀登。9月2-4日，市场遭遇大幅调整，稳市预期博弈&科技抱团松动是主要原 因，9月行情以波动加剧开局。庆幸的是，资金对牛市的信心仍然坚实，指数随后企稳回升。结构上， 各类题材"百花齐放"，同时轮动加快。AI算力和半导体抱团松动后，固态电池、储能、机器人、半导体 材料设备、有色金属等均进入轮动范围。 （二）权益：盛宴未散，但轮动参与难度提升 如需完整报告，请联系对口销售经理 （三）转债：场内外资金心态分歧，但依然具有向上机会 正股行情仍在持续演绎，收益荒逻辑依然会发挥作用，转债指数具备向上的机会。今年纯债策略收益受 限，大量以往固收+参与较少的机构也会考虑利用转债行情搏取收益反转，转债需求有承接。但相较于 7-8月的行情，在体验过转债估值波动后，部分风险承受能力较低的机构会更加冷静，前期冒进式拔估 值行情难以复现。这意味着，转债估值波动可能在当前阶段成为常态。 （四）策略：主题投资，把握核心逻辑 综上，牛市盛宴未散，从主题入手较为理想。当前市场的主题线索有两条，一是高景气的科技主线，包 括已经受到关注的AI ...

中金公司研报认为，近期市场表现出较强的结构性特征，热点集中在成长板块。由于前期市场成交迅速 放大、交易集中，8月底后A股市场进入盘整震荡期，但不乏结构亮点。海外AI算力的强劲需求持续被 印证，中国能源转型目标较为清晰，在全球产业链上的定位决定了中国以制造业大国的角色参与技术革 命，研报认为推动制造升级将是中长期趋势，正在催化股票市场的结构性机会。10月建议关注如下配置 思路：1）AI算力和机器人等相关产业链；2）创新药、消费电子、电池和有色金属等行业；3）工程机 械、电网设备、养殖业与饲料等行业；4）"十五五"相关领域。（人民财讯） ...

10 月市场观点：假期要闻概览与业绩线索指引 1、国庆假期要闻概览 假期居民旅游出行数据旺盛，且跨境旅游消费成为重要亮点，院线票房表现相对 偏弱；海外多国政局再添变数，美国政府时隔七年再度"停摆"、法国总理请辞、 日本首位女首相或将诞生，美、日、欧货币与财政政策走向不确定性增多。总体 看，海外政局变数与美联储降息预期波动更多主导资产定价，权益资产普遍震荡 收涨，黄金与比特币新高（详见正文）。 2、三季报业绩线索梳理 综合工业企业利润、中观数据等跟踪，预计三季报值得关注的方向主要涉及四类 （详见正文）：一是受益于外部降息和新兴需求拉动的有色金属（贵金属、工业金 属、小金属），二是反内卷催化下实现价格企稳的钢铁、煤炭、化工、光伏等；三 是延续稳健量增的汽车、锂电、电力、物流等；四是海内外需求共振驱动的 AI 条 线（算力相关）。 3、月度市场回顾： 证券研究报告 | 策略报告 gszqdatemark 2025 10 09 年 月 日 投资策略 9 月以来，海外降息如期落地且连续降息预期升温，黄金重启上行并创历史新高， 港股明显补涨，A 股表现相对偏弱。月度级别看，交投情绪重返合理区间，两融入 场放缓，ETF 则 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the performance of A-share indices in October over the past decade, indicating a mixed trend for the Shanghai Composite Index, while the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index show higher winning rates, particularly in specific sectors like semiconductors and automotive parts [1][5]. Summary by Sections A-share Index Performance - Over the past ten years, the Shanghai Composite Index has shown a 50% win rate in October, while the Shenzhen Component Index has a 70% win rate, and the ChiNext Index has a 60% win rate [2][5]. - The performance of these indices varies significantly, with notable years of decline in 2018, 2022, and 2023 for the Shenzhen and ChiNext indices [2][5]. Sector Performance - In the last five years, the semiconductor, other electronics, and automotive parts sectors have achieved a 100% win rate in October [1][5]. - Other sectors such as commercial vehicles, internet e-commerce, automation equipment, wind power equipment, consumer electronics, and components have an 80% win rate [5]. Investment Recommendations - Multiple brokerages suggest focusing on technology and "anti-involution" themes, especially during the third-quarter report window [6]. - The market is expected to maintain a trend of gradual upward movement, with key attention on third-quarter earnings reports and policy expectations [6][7]. - Key investment themes include AI capital expenditure, the "14th Five-Year Plan" expectations, and sectors likely to benefit from potential policy reversals related to "anti-involution" [7].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a "slow bull" trend supported by policy initiatives, technological advancements, and continuous capital inflow, with a positive outlook for the fourth quarter [2][3][4]. Policy Support - October is identified as a critical period for policy layout, with expectations for clearer signals and new incentives for the capital market, including potential interest rate cuts to limit downside risks [2][3]. Technological Advancements - The domestic AI industry is progressing, with the overseas AI trend also on the rise, which is expected to rekindle interest in A-share structures [3][4]. - The AI computing and semiconductor sectors remain the focus of institutional investors, with significant recommendations for stocks in these areas [4][5]. Capital Inflow - Foreign capital saw a net inflow of $4.6 billion into the Chinese stock market in September, marking the highest monthly inflow since November 2024, with a particular focus on technology growth sectors like semiconductors [3][4]. - Domestic capital is also increasing, with new fund issuance rebounding and long-term funds accelerating their market entry, supported by a 300 billion yuan stock repurchase loan tool [3][4]. Investment Focus - The technology growth sectors, including AI computing, semiconductors, and innovative pharmaceuticals, are highly favored by institutions, with electronic stocks being the most recommended [4][5]. - Specific stocks such as Industrial Fulian and Zhaoyi Innovation are highlighted for their growth potential in the AI and semiconductor fields, respectively [5][6]. - WuXi AppTec is noted for its strong international competitiveness and solid market position, making it a preferred long-term investment choice [5][6].

Group 1 - Nikkei 225 index surged 4.75% to reach a historical high, while Hang Seng Index rose 9.3% during the holiday, indicating strong performance in overseas markets [1] - A-share market has a historical trend of over 70% probability of rising in the first week after National Day, with three main drivers identified for a potential rebound [3] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in November has risen to 94%, leading to a shift of global funds from high-yield assets to emerging markets, with Chinese assets becoming a focal point [3] Group 2 - Domestic policies and liquidity are crucial for stabilizing the A-share market, with the central bank injecting 300 billion yuan in liquidity through reverse repos [5] - Various policy measures have been implemented, including tax refunds for semiconductor equipment purchases and consumer subsidies, creating a supportive environment for market recovery [5] - Industrial profits showed a significant turnaround, with a 20.4% year-on-year increase in August, ending three months of negative growth [5] Group 3 - The AI sector is experiencing growth, with AMD and OpenAI entering a multi-billion dollar partnership, driving global demand for computing power [7] - The penetration rate of domestic AI chips is expected to rise from 12% in 2024 to 28% in 2025, with private equity firms showing strong confidence in the technology sector [7] - Historical data indicates a 60% probability of the Shanghai Composite Index rising in the first five trading days after National Day, with an average increase of 1.41% [7] Group 4 - Analysts suggest the market has entered a "fundamentally driven bull market phase," with technology leading the way, while consumer and financial sectors are expected to catch up [9] - Semiconductor equipment companies are likely to benefit from policy subsidies, with firms like North Huachuang and Changchuan Technology showing strong profit growth [9] - The valuation of technology stocks remains low, with the computer industry PE at 38 times, below the 50th percentile since 2015 [9] Group 5 - Consumer sectors such as liquor and new energy are expected to benefit from seasonal demand and foreign capital inflow, supported by fiscal subsidies [11] - Financial sectors, including brokerage firms and banks, are positioned to gain from improved market sentiment and increased trading volumes [11] - Concerns exist regarding whether high valuations in technology stocks have already priced in future growth, especially if foreign capital takes profits [11]

10月7日，根据腾讯混元官方微博的消息，LMArena发布最新视觉模型榜单，腾讯混元最新视觉模型 Hunyuan-Vision-1.5-Thinking 取得全球第3、国内第1的成绩。 智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，2025年国庆期间，国产AI算力生态持续演进：服务器订单方 面，工商银行(01398)、中国联通(00762)公布合计百亿服务器招标结果，国产算力供应商中标占比超 90%；大模型方面，阿里(09988)发布大模型Qwen3-VL-30B-A3B且华为昇腾实现0 day支持，腾讯 (00700)混元最新视觉模型跻身LMArena榜单全球第三。中信证券认为当前国产算力加速演进，建议关 注龙头厂商。 中信证券主要观点如下： 百亿服务器招标落地，国产厂商为绝对主力。 10月4~5日，工商银行、中国联通相继公布服务器招标结果。工商银行：海光芯片服务器集采规模30亿 元，浪潮信息为正选中标方，中兴和联想为备选方案。中国联通：通用服务器集采合计金额79.6亿元， 共分为两个标包，标包一为预算8.95亿元的英特尔CPU服务器，中标候选人包括紫光华山、浪潮电子、 超聚变；标包二为预算42.85亿元的鲲鹏服 ...

盘中10：30-14：00时段，市场将进入多空拉锯状态，板块轮动加速。 "整个假期我都在盯着A50期指和港股走势，10月2日A50大涨1.06%后连续震荡四个交易日，这给明天A股开盘埋下了伏笔。 "一位散户在投资论坛的留言道 出了许多股民的心声。 这个长假，投资者们一边度假一边盯盘，内心备受煎熬。 历史数据显示，近十年国庆节后首日A股上涨概率高达70%，节后5个交易日的上涨概率也达到60%。 2025年10月9日，A股市场将结束为期8天的国庆假期恢 复交易。 假期期间全球股市普遍上涨，日经225指数突破47000点大关创历史新高，港股恒生指数假期涨幅达9.3%，恒生科技指数飙升12.8%。 这一全球普涨格局为A 股节后补涨提供了外部基础。 当MSCI全球指数假期涨幅超过2%时，A股节后首日上涨概率达83%。 多家机构对明天市场走势的判断出奇一致：低开高走、震荡蓄势。 10月9日市场将经历"先抑后扬，震荡蓄势"的过程，盘初存在技术性调整压力，但随着市 场情绪稳定和资金回流，尾盘有望获得支撑。 早盘9：30-10：30时段，市场可能面临技术性调整压力。 由于假期期间不确定因素消化以及部分获利盘了结，指数可能低开或 ...