1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the given reports. 2. Core Views of Each Report Natural Rubber Industry - Short - term rubber price may rise due to commodity preference sentiment, but the overall fundamentals are weak. Consider short - selling around 15700 [1]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - Soda ash: The supply - demand pattern is bearish, prices are in a downward trend with occasional technical rebounds. Look for short - selling opportunities after rebounds [3]. - Glass: The spot market is under pressure, and the 05 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly at the bottom before positive drivers emerge [3]. Crude Oil Industry - International crude oil prices are affected by geopolitical events. The supply is in excess, and prices are expected to fluctuate between 60 - 65 dollars per barrel. Monitor EIA data and geopolitical developments [4]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Pure benzene: The short - term supply - demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate between 5300 - 5600. - Styrene: The short - term rebound space is limited. Consider short - selling EB02/03 above 6800 and narrowing the EB spread [6]. Polyolefin Industry - PP: Supply increases while demand decreases, and the 05 contract may face pressure if there are few planned maintenance in 1 - 3 months. - PE: Supply and demand are both weak, but the marginal situation is improving, and short - term pressure is relieved [7]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic soda: The supply - demand is weak, inventory is high, and the rebound height is limited. - PVC: The spot fundamentals are weak, and it is difficult to support price increases [8]. Urea Industry - The short - term supply is high, and demand is weak. Prices are expected to oscillate widely, with the futures main contract focusing on the 1700 - 1760 range [9]. LPG Industry No clear overall view provided in the given LPG - related content. Ester Industry - PX: The short - term supply - demand may weaken, with prices adjusting before the Spring Festival. Consider exiting long positions, short - selling for the aggressive, and low - buying in the medium - term. - PTA: Follow raw material fluctuations. Exit long positions, short - sell for the aggressive, and low - buy in the medium - term. - MEG: Overseas supply may shrink, but near - month inventory accumulation is expected, and price increases face resistance. - Short - fiber: Follow raw material fluctuations, and narrow the processing spread when it is high. - Bottle chips: Domestic supply is expected to increase, and compress the processing spread when it is high [13]. Methanol Industry - The port may face inventory accumulation in December, and the supply - demand balance may turn to inventory reduction in the first quarter of the next year. The inland price oscillates narrowly. Monitor inventory reduction after the actual arrival at the port decreases [16]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber Industry Spot Prices and Basis - Yunnan state - owned full - latex rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai rose from 15200 to 15300, with a 0.66% increase. - The full - latex basis increased by 9.43% to - 480 yuan/ton [1]. Monthly Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread increased by 50% to 15 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Consumption - Thailand's November production decreased by 9.39% to 466.20 thousand tons. - China's November production increased by 23.70 thousand tons [1]. Inventory Changes - Bonded area inventory increased by 3.28% to 515227 tons [1]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry Glass - Related Prices and Spreads - North China glass price remained at 1010 yuan/ton. - The 01 basis of glass decreased by 5.13% to 74 yuan/ton [3]. Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads - Northwest soda ash price decreased by 4.21% to 910 yuan/ton. - The 01 basis of soda ash decreased by 3.24% to 179 yuan/ton [3]. Supply - Soda ash weekly output decreased by 1.33% to 71.18 million tons [3]. Inventory - Soda ash factory inventory decreased by 4.06% to 143.85 million tons [3]. Crude Oil Industry Crude Oil Prices and Spreads - Brent crude oil decreased by 2.57% to 60.64 dollars per barrel [4]. Refined Oil Prices and Spreads - NYM RBOB decreased by 2.86% to 169.71 cents per gallon [4]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry Upstream Prices and Spreads - Brent crude oil (February) decreased by 2.6% to 60.64 dollars per barrel. - The pure benzene - naphtha spread increased by 3.9% to 133 dollars/ton [6]. Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads - Styrene East China spot price increased by 2.4% to 6700 dollars/ton [6]. Inventory and Operating Rates - Styrene Jiangsu port inventory increased by 3.4% to 13.93 million tons [6]. Polyolefin Industry Futures Prices and Spreads - L2601 closed at 6388 yuan/ton, up 0.73%. - The L15 spread decreased by 61.70% to - 76 yuan/ton [7]. Inventory - PE enterprise inventory decreased by 5.99% to 45.9 million tons [7]. Operating Rates - PE device operating rate decreased by 1.46% to 82.6% [7]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry Spot and Futures Prices - Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda converted to 100% decreased by 0.7% to 2218.8 yuan/ton. - V2605 increased by 1.6% to 4832 yuan/ton [8]. Supply and Demand - Caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 0.2% to 88.7%. - PVC total operating rate decreased by 0.9% to 75.4% [8]. Inventory - Liquid caustic soda East China factory inventory decreased by 2.6% to 22.1 million tons [8]. Urea Industry Futures and Spot Prices - The 01 contract of urea decreased by 0.48% to 1667 yuan/ton [9]. Supply and Demand - Domestic urea daily output remained at 19.19 million tons. - Factory inventory decreased by 9.39% to 106.89 million tons [9]. LPG Industry LPG Prices and Spreads - The main PG2601 contract increased by 0.07% to 4238 yuan/ton. - The PG01 - 02 spread decreased by 0.63% to 158 yuan/ton [11]. Inventory and Operating Rates - LPG refinery storage capacity ratio increased by 1.69% to 24.1%. - Downstream PDH operating rate increased by 1.81% to 76.4% [11]. Ester Industry Upstream Prices - Brent crude oil (February) decreased by 2.6% to 60.64 dollars per barrel. - CFR China PX increased by 2.0% to 918 dollars/ton [13]. Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows - POY150/48 price increased by 2.0% to 6570 yuan/ton [13]. Operating Rates - Asian PX operating rate increased by 0.6% to 79.5% [13]. Methanol Industry Methanol Prices and Spreads - MA2601 closed at 2130 yuan/ton, up 0.05%. - The MTO05盘面 increased by 13.18% to - 191 [14]. Inventory - Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 3.28% to 40.397 million tons [15]. Operating Rates - Upstream domestic enterprise operating rate increased by 0.46% to 77.99% [16].

能源化工日报 2025-12-29 原油 2025/12/29 原油 【行情资讯】 能源化工组 张正华 橡胶研究员 从业资格号：F270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn INE 主力原油期货收跌 1.20 元/桶，跌幅 0.27%，报 441.80 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫 燃料油收涨 18.00 元/吨，涨幅 0.73%，报 2491.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收涨 5.00 元/吨，涨幅 0.17%，报 3017.00 元/吨。 新加坡 ESG 油品周度数据出炉，汽油库存累库 0.06 百万桶至 15.06 百万桶，环比累库 0.43%； 柴油库存累库 0.07 百万桶至 8.43 百万桶，环比累库 0.85%；燃料油库存去库 1.40 百万桶至 24.66 百万桶，环比去库 5.39%；总成品油去库 1.27 百万桶至 48.15 百万桶，环比去库 2.57%。 【策略观点】 我们认为尽管地缘溢价已经全部消散，OPEC 虽做增产但量级极低，与此同时我们观测到 OPEC 供给仍未放量，因而油价短期仍然不宜过于看空。基于此我们维持对油价低 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the documents. 2. Core Views of the Reports Natural Rubber - Short - term fundamentals change little. The rubber price rises due to the increasing preference for commodities, but there is a risk of a sharp fall after a rise [1]. Methanol - The port may face inventory accumulation pressure in December, but the supply - demand balance sheet is expected to turn to inventory reduction in the first quarter of the next year. The supply - demand pattern in the inland area is expected to be stable, and the price will fluctuate within a narrow range [4]. Polyolefins - For PP, supply increases while demand decreases, with low marginal device valuation and a slight reduction in inventory. For PE, both supply and demand are weak, with a decrease in the marginal supply of standard products, low valuation, and the futures price rising with reduced positions [8]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene may maintain a volatile trend in the short term, with the BZ2603 contract likely to fluctuate between 5300 - 5600. Styrene's rebound space is limited, and the EB02 contract may fluctuate between 6300 - 6700 [9]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash's supply - demand pattern is bearish, and the price is in a downward - fluctuating pattern. It is recommended to consider short - selling opportunities after the rebound. Glass's market still faces pressure, and the 01 contract will follow the delivery logic in December [10]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda's price is expected to be weak in the short term, and its rebound range is limited. PVC is expected to continue to move in a range, and its rebound height is limited [11]. Crude Oil - Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate between 60 - 65 dollars per barrel, and it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation after the holiday [12]. Urea - Urea prices may fluctuate between 1700 - 1750. It is necessary to pay attention to the enterprise's replenishment demand and the progress of export policies [14]. LPG - No clear overall view is provided in the LPG - related content. Polyester Industry Chain - PX may continue to be strong in the short term, but caution is needed. PTA's upward movement is limited. MEG is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. Short - fiber's absolute price has limited drivers. Bottle - chip's processing fees are expected to be compressed [18]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis - The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex (SCRWF) in Shanghai rose by 250 yuan/ton to 15100 yuan/ton, with a 1.68% increase. The whole - latex basis decreased by 110 yuan/ton to - 550 yuan/ton, a 25.00% decline [1]. Monthly Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread increased by 70 yuan/ton to 5 yuan/ton, a 107.69% increase. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 65 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton, a 185.71% decline [1]. Production and Inventory - Thailand's October production decreased by 48.3 thousand tons to 466.2 thousand tons, a 9.39% decline. The bonded - area inventory increased by 16339 tons to 515227 tons, a 3.28% increase [1]. Methanol Prices and Spreads - The MA2601 closing price rose by 4 yuan/ton to 2134 yuan/ton, a 0.19% increase. The MA15 spread decreased by 12 yuan/ton to - 38 yuan/ton, a 46.15% increase [4]. Inventory - Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 1.28 million tons to 40.397 million tons, a 3.28% increase. Methanol port inventory increased by 19.37 million tons to 141.3 million tons, a 15.89% increase [4]. Operating Rates - The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate increased by 0.99 percentage points to 77.63%, a 1.29% increase. The downstream MTO device operating rate increased by 1.51 percentage points to 86%, a 1.79% increase [4]. Polyolefins Prices and Spreads - The L2601 closing price rose by 104 yuan/ton to 6320 yuan/ton, a 1.67% increase. The L15 spread decreased by 8 yuan/ton to - 28 yuan/ton, a 16.00% decline [8]. Inventory - PE enterprise inventory decreased by 2.92 million tons to 45.9 million tons, a 5.99% decline. PP trade - dealer inventory decreased by 2.01 million tons to 18.7 million tons, a 9.70% decline [8]. Operating Rates - The PE device operating rate decreased by 0.25 percentage points to 83.9%, a 0.30% decline. The PP device operating rate increased by 1.08 percentage points to 79.4%, a 1.37% increase [8]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Upstream Prices and Spreads - Brent crude oil (February) decreased by 0.14 dollars per barrel to 62.24 dollars per barrel, a 0.2% decline. The pure benzene - to - naphtha spread increased by 4 dollars per ton to 128 dollars per ton, a 3.2% increase [9]. Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads - Styrene's East - China spot price rose by 90 yuan/ton to 6650 yuan/ton, a 1.4% increase. The EB02 - EB03 spread decreased by 7 yuan/ton to - 64 yuan/ton, a 12.3% increase [9]. Inventory and Operating Rates - Pure benzene's Jiangsu port inventory increased by 1.3 million tons to 27.3 million tons, a 5.0% increase. The domestic pure benzene operating rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 74.9%, a 0.2% decline [9]. Glass and Soda Ash Prices and Spreads - The glass 2601 price rose by 3 yuan/ton to 941 yuan/ton, a 0.32% increase. The soda ash 2605 price rose by 9 yuan/ton to 1184 yuan/ton, a 0.81% increase [10]. Production and Inventory - Soda ash's weekly production decreased by 1.4 million tons to 72.14 million tons, a 1.90% decline. Glass factory inventory increased by 33.1 million tons to 5855.8 million tons, a 0.57% increase [10]. PVC and Caustic Soda Prices and Spreads - The East - China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price rose by 60 yuan/ton to 4480 yuan/ton, a 1.4% increase. The SH2601 price rose by 12 yuan/ton to 2150 yuan/ton, a 0.6% increase [11]. Supply and Demand - The caustic - soda industry operating rate decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 88.5%, a 1.5% decline. The PVC total operating rate decreased by 2.3 percentage points to 16.1%, a 2.9% decline [11]. Inventory - The liquid - caustic East - China factory inventory decreased by 1.4 million tons to 22.7 million tons, a 5.7% decline. The PVC upstream factory inventory decreased by 1.6 million tons to 32.9 million tons, a 4.6% decline [11]. Crude Oil Prices and Spreads - Brent crude oil rose by 0.31 dollars per barrel to 62.38 dollars per barrel, a 0.50% increase. The Brent M1 - M3 spread increased by 0.12 dollars per barrel to - 3.16 dollars per barrel, a 3.66% decline [12]. Refined Oil - NYM RBOB rose by 10.75 cents per gallon to 627.25 cents per gallon, a 1.74% increase. The RBOB M1 - M3 spread decreased by 0.34 cents per gallon to - 3.15 cents per gallon, a 12.10% increase [12]. Urea Prices and Spreads - The methanol - main - contract price rose by 16 yuan/ton to 2172 yuan/ton, a 0.74% increase. The 01 - contract - to - 05 - contract spread decreased by 6 yuan/ton to - 62 yuan/ton, a 9.68% decline [14]. Supply and Demand - The domestic urea daily production decreased to 19.5 million tons, a 0.00% change. The urea production factory operating rate remained at 80.62%, a 0.00% change [14]. Inventory - The domestic urea factory inventory decreased by 11.08 million tons to 106.89 million tons, a 9.39% decline. The domestic urea port inventory remained at 13.8 million tons, a 0.00% change [14]. LPG Prices and Spreads - The main PG2601 contract price rose by 36 yuan/ton to 4221 yuan/ton, a 0.86% increase. The PG01 - 02 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 139 yuan/ton, a 9.74% decline [16]. Inventory and Operating Rates - The LPG port inventory decreased by 22.4 million tons to 261 million tons, a 7.89% decline. The downstream PDH operating rate increased by 2.1 percentage points to 75.0%, a 2.92% increase [16]. Polyester Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Prices - Brent crude oil (February) decreased by 0.14 dollars per barrel to 62.24 dollars per barrel, a 0.2% decline. The POY150/48 price remained at 6395 yuan/ton, a 0.0% change [18]. PX - Related - CFR China PX rose by 5 dollars per ton to 901 dollars per ton, a 0.6% increase. The PX - to - naphtha spread increased by 6 dollars per ton to 447 dollars per ton, a 1.4% increase [18]. PTA and MEG - The PTA East - China spot price rose by 60 yuan/ton to 5015 yuan/ton, a 1.2% increase. The MEG port inventory increased by 3.0 million tons to 71.6 million tons, a 4.4% increase [18].

能源化工日报 2025-12-25 原油 2025/12/25 原油 能源化工组 INE 主力原油期货收涨 3.00 元/桶，涨幅 0.68%，报 444.70 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫 燃料油收跌 2.00 元/吨，跌幅 0.08%，报 2480.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收涨 14.00 元/吨，涨幅 0.47%，报 3014.00 元/吨。 富查伊拉港口油品周度数据出炉，汽油库存去库 0.70 百万桶至 6.27 百万桶，环比去库 10.08%； 柴油库存去库 0.38 百万桶至 2.29 百万桶，环比去库 14.25%；燃料油库存去库 1.02 百万桶至 10.38 百万桶，环比去库 8.95%；总成品油去库 2.10 百万桶至 18.94 百万桶，环比去库 10.00%。 【策略观点】 我们认为尽管地缘溢价已经全部消散，OPEC 虽做增产但量级极低，与此同时我们观测到 OPEC 供给仍未放量，因而油价短期仍然不宜过于看空。基于此我们维持对油价低多高抛的区间策略， 但当前油价仍需测试 OPEC 的出口挺价意愿，建议短期观望为主，等待油价下跌时 OPEC 出口下 滑做出验证。 甲醇 2025/12/ ...

Group 1: Natural Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned in the report. Core View Supply - side, geopolitical tensions in Thailand and Cambodia have not eased, affecting local raw material supply, and domestic production areas are accelerating the suspension of production, so there is still support at the bottom of rubber prices. Demand - side, the resumption of work of maintenance enterprises will support overall capacity utilization, but enterprises will maintain production control in the short - term due to rising production and sales pressure. Market - side, considering the achievement of annual tasks, some agents still have moderate replenishment behavior, but it is the seasonal off - season, and actual market transactions are mainly for just - in - time needs. The market will continue to run weakly. Overall, rising port inventories and the off - season will limit the upside of rubber prices, and rubber prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 15,000 - 15,500 [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On December 23, the price of Yunnan Guofu whole - latex (SCRWF) in Shanghai increased by 50 yuan/ton to 14,850 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 0.34%. The basis of whole - latex decreased by 35 yuan/ton to - 440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.64%. Other spot prices also had corresponding changes [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 65 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30.00%. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 15 yuan/ton to 35 yuan/ton, an increase of 75.00% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, Thailand's production decreased by 1.40 to 478.60, a decrease of 0.29%; Indonesia's production decreased by 2.90 to 186.10, a decrease of 1.53%; India's production increased by 4.40 to 89.40, an increase of 5.18%; China's production decreased by 7.70 to 113.50. The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires for automobile tires decreased by 0.18 to 71.39%, and that of all - steel tires increased by 0.07 to 64.14%. In November, domestic tire production increased by 387.70 to 10,182.80 million pieces, an increase of 3.96%, and tire export volume increased by 484.00 to 5,657.00, an increase of 9.36% [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: On December 23, the bonded area inventory increased by 16,339 to 515,227 tons, an increase of 3.28%. The warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased by 605 to 58,968 tons, a decrease of 1.02% [1]. Group 2: Polyolefin Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned in the report. Core View The market is trading the situation of high production in 2026 and weak reality. Polyolefins are being short - sold with increased positions. In 2026, the polyolefin market is expected to see a decline in costs and a compression of profits, and the price center will further decline. For PP, supply increases while demand decreases, the valuation of marginal devices remains low, and inventory decreases slightly. For PE, both supply and demand are weak, some full - density devices are switching from LLDPE to HDPE production, the marginal supply of standard products is decreasing, but prices are continuously falling, there is no speculative demand in the industry chain, and inventory has increased this week [4]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Closing Price and Spread**: On December 23, the closing price of L2601 increased by 60 to 6,246 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 0.97%. The L15 spread increased by 4 to - 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.41% [4]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of East China PP raffia increased by 20 to 6,020 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 0.33%. The North China LL basis decreased by 20 to - 60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50.00% [4]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rate of PE devices decreased by 0.25 to 83.9%, a decrease of 0.30%. The weighted operating rate of PE downstream decreased by 0.55 to 42.5%, a decrease of 1.28% [4]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory increased by 1.72 to 48.8 tons, an increase of 3.65%. PP enterprise inventory decreased by 53.71 to 0.0 tons, a decrease of 100.00% [4]. Group 3: Methanol Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned in the report. Core View On December 23, methanol futures fluctuated narrowly. In the port area, although the arrival volume in December is still high, due to gas restrictions and device failures in Iran, the import volume in the far - term is expected to decrease significantly. Although there is still inventory accumulation pressure in December, the supply - demand balance sheet is expected to turn to inventory reduction in the first quarter of next year. In the inland area, the transfer price in Inner Mongolia has decreased. The supply side will maintain production due to the recovery of enterprise profits from falling coal prices. The demand side will see a slight recovery in traditional downstream operating rates and new MTO capacity put into operation. The inland supply - demand pattern is expected to stabilize, and prices will mainly fluctuate narrowly [6][7]. Summary by Directory - **Methanol Price and Spread**: On December 23, the closing price of MA2601 increased by 14 to 2,130 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 0.66%. The MA15 spread increased by 13 to - 26 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33.33% [6]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 3.83 to 39.114 tons, an increase of 10.86%. Methanol port inventory decreased by 1.56 to 121.9 tons, a decrease of 1.26% [6]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rate of domestic upstream enterprises increased by 0.99 to 77.63%, an increase of 1.29%. The operating rate of externally - purchased MTO devices increased by 1.51 to 86%, an increase of 1.79% [6]. Group 4: PX - PTA - MEG - Polyester Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned in the report. Core View - **PX**: In the short - term, without obvious negatives and with the support of geopolitics, PX may continue to be strong unless there is substantial production reduction in the polyester sector. - **PTA**: The supply - demand pattern was tight from November to December, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in the first quarter. Strategies include reducing positions on rallies, not chasing high prices, taking a long - position in the medium - term at low prices, and a positive spread for TA5 - 9 at low levels. - **MEG**: Supply is still abundant, and the supply - demand outlook is weak. It is expected to run weakly in the short - term. Strategies include a bearish spread for EG5 - 9 and holding the seller of EG2605 - C - 4100. - **Short - fiber**: Supply remains high, demand is seasonally weak, and prices are driven by raw materials. Strategies are the same as PTA, and short - fiber processing fees should be shorted on rallies [8]. Summary by Directory - **PX - related Prices and Spreads**: On December 23, the spot price of PX in RMB increased by 19 to 7,363 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 0.3%. The PX03 - PX05 spread decreased by 22 to 20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52.4% [8]. - **PTA - related Prices and Spreads**: The PTA spot price increased by 70 to 4,955 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 1.4%. The PTA05 - PTA09 spread increased by 4 to 80 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.3% [8]. - **MEG - related Prices and Spreads**: The EG2605 futures price decreased by 112 to 3,623 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.0%. The EG05 - EG09 spread decreased by 16 to - 81 yuan/ton, an increase of 24.6% [8]. - **Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: The price of polyester chips increased by 15 to 5,630 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 0.3%. The cash flow of POY150/48 increased by 7 to - 274 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.4% [8]. Group 5: Glass - Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned in the report. Core View - **Soda Ash**: Supply is stable, demand has shrunk overall, and the supply - demand pattern is bearish. Prices will continue to fluctuate downward, and it is recommended to short on rallies after the technical rebound of the futures. - **Glass**: Spot prices are under pressure, demand in the north has weakened significantly, and there are concerns about future demand. The futures market is also under pressure. The 01 contract will continue the delivery logic in December, and the 05 contract is expected to be weak before positive drivers appear [9]. Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: On December 23, the North China glass quotation decreased by 10 to 1,020 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.97%. The 01 basis of glass decreased by 17 to 82 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17.17% [9]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: The North China soda ash quotation remained unchanged at 1,300 yuan/ton. The 01 basis of soda ash decreased by 8 to 183 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.19% [9]. - **Supply and Inventory**: The operating rate of soda ash decreased by 1.91 to 82.74%. Soda ash plant inventory increased by 0.5 to 149.93 tons, an increase of 0.33% [9]. Group 6: PVC - Caustic Soda Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned in the report. Core View - **Caustic Soda**: There is still pressure on supply and demand. Although some regions have inventory reduction and downstream procurement enthusiasm, inventory levels are still high. Prices are expected to be bearish next week, especially in the East China region where supply is expected to increase. - **PVC**: The futures market is boosted by the macro - environment, but demand is weak. It is in the traditional off - season, and both domestic and export demand are poor. The supply - demand pattern is oversupplied, and price rebounds are limited [10]. Summary by Directory - **PVC and Caustic Soda Spot & Futures**: On December 23, the market price of East China calcium carbide - based PVC increased by 80 to 4,420 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 1.8%. The SH2605 futures price increased by 35 to 2,324 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 1.5% [10]. - **Caustic Soda Overseas Quotation & Export Profit**: The FOB price of East China ports remained unchanged at 370 US dollars/ton. The export profit increased by 76.2 to 251.6 US dollars/ton, an increase of 43.4% [10]. - **Supply and Demand**: The operating rate of the caustic soda industry decreased by 1.4 to 88.5%. The operating rate of PVC downstream products such as profiles decreased by 3.7 to 31.4%, a decrease of 10.5% [10]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of liquid caustic soda in East China factories decreased by 1.4 to 22.7 tons, a decrease of 5.7%. PVC total social inventory decreased by 0.7 to 51.1 tons, a decrease of 1.3% [10]. Group 7: Crude Oil Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned in the report. Core View On December 23, international crude oil continued to rise. Tensions between the US and Venezuela may escalate, and the Russia - Ukraine situation remains uncertain, which will continue to affect crude oil prices. Although inventory data has not improved, the demand for refined oil products is expected to pick up during the Western holidays. Overall, crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the range of 60 - 65 US dollars/barrel, and attention should be paid to geopolitical developments [11]. Summary by Directory - **Crude Oil Price and Spread**: On December 23, Brent crude oil increased by 0.31 to 62.38 US dollars/barrel, a growth rate of 0.50%. The Brent M1 - M3 spread increased by 0.06 to 0.84 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 7.69% [11]. - **Refined Oil Price and Spread**: The NYM RBOB price increased by 0.10 to 174.32 US cents/gallon, a growth rate of 0.06%. The RBOB M1 - M3 spread decreased by 0.34 to - 3.15 US cents/gallon, a decrease of 12.10% [11]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spread**: The US gasoline crack spread decreased by 0.33 to 14.83 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 2.16%. The US diesel crack spread increased by 0.99 to 33.63 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 3.05% [11]. Group 8: Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned in the report. Core View - **Pure Benzene**: The short - term supply - demand pattern is weak, but there is an expectation of improvement in the future. Spring maintenance plans are being introduced, and with the support of rising oil prices, the downside space is limited. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5,300 - 5,600 yuan/ton. - **Styrene**: As industry profits recover, supply has increased. But demand is weakening as downstream industries are in the off - season and losses are expanding. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival, and the upside of prices is limited. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 6,300 - 6,700 yuan/ton [13]. Summary by Directory - **Upstream Price and Spread**: On December 23, the price of Brent crude oil (February) increased by 1.91 to 62.38 US dollars/barrel, a growth rate of 3.2%. The pure benzene - naphtha spread decreased by 2 to 124 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.6% [13]. - **Styrene - related Price and Spread**: The spot price of styrene in East China decreased by 60 to 6,560 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.9%. The EB02 - EB03 spread increased by 1 to - 57 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.7% [13]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports increased by 1.3 to 27.30 tons, an increase of 5.0%. The operating rate of styrene increased by 1.0 to 69.1%, an increase of 1.5% [13]. Group 9: Urea Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned in the report. Core View Urea futures prices are rising, but spot prices are stable, and the market is mainly fulfilling previous orders. On the supply side, although the operating rate has decreased slightly due to some gas - based device shutdowns, daily production remains at a relatively high level, and supply pressure will increase after the resumption of some devices. On the demand side, agricultural demand is in the off - season, and industrial demand is weakening. Coal prices support urea prices from the cost side. In the short - term, the futures rebound is mainly driven by export expectations, and in the medium - term, the supply - demand weakness will dominate prices. Urea prices are expected to fluctuate in a range, and attention should be paid to whether the futures main contract can hold above 1,730 yuan/ton, as well as device resumption and downstream demand [14]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Closing Price and Spread**: On December 23, the 01 contract of urea futures increased by 10 to 1,649 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 0.61%. The 01 contract - 0

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Copper, Aluminum, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, Lithium Carbonate [1] - Bearish: Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, No. 05 Contract of Rapeseed Oil, Benzene Ethylene [1] - Neutral (Oscillation): Stock Index, Treasury Bond, Alumina, Zinc, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, High - Ash Coal, Cotton, Sugar, Wheat, Corn, Pulp, Log, Live Pig, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Steam, PP, PVC, LPG, Shipping [1] Core Views - After the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the risk appetite of global equity assets is gradually recovering, and the stock index is oscillating and rebounding. However, further breakthrough requires volume support, and the market sentiment is expected to be cautious by the end of the year [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - The macro - sentiment has improved, and the prices of some metals such as copper, aluminum, and nickel are showing upward trends, while the fundamentals of some metals like alumina remain weak [1]. - In the non - ferrous metal industry, the production plan of Indonesian nickel ore in 2026 is expected to be reduced, which has an impact on the market [1]. - In the stainless - steel industry, raw material prices are stable, inventory is decreasing, and production cuts are increasing [1]. - In the precious - metal and new - energy sectors, gold has reached a new high, and silver, platinum, and palladium are also bullish, but there are risks of volatility [1]. - In the black - metal industry, the black - metal sector has experienced a resonance decline, but there are signs of stabilization [1]. - In the agricultural - product market, different products have different supply - demand situations and price trends, and attention should be paid to various factors such as policies, weather, and inventories [1]. - In the energy - chemical industry, different products are affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and production plans, showing different price trends [1]. Summaries by Related Categories Macro - Financial - Stock Index: After the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the risk appetite of global equity assets is gradually recovering, and the stock index is oscillating and rebounding. Further breakthrough requires volume support, and the market sentiment is expected to be cautious by the end of the year, with the stock index mainly oscillating [1]. - Treasury Bond: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike has led to a recovery in market risk appetite, and copper prices are running strongly [1]. - Aluminum: With limited industrial drive and improved macro - sentiment, aluminum prices are oscillating strongly [1]. - Alumina: The domestic fundamentals remain weak, and the price will remain low in the short term [1]. - Zinc: The fundamentals have improved, and the cost center has moved up, but the zinc price is under pressure due to news such as LME position limits. Attention can be paid to low - buying opportunities [1]. - Nickel: The US inflation has slowed down more than expected, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike has warmed the macro - sentiment. The production plan of Indonesian nickel ore in 2026 is expected to be reduced, and the global nickel inventory is still high. The Shanghai nickel has rebounded significantly recently and may run strongly in the short term. The long - term primary nickel market remains in a surplus pattern [1]. - Stainless Steel: The price of raw material nickel - iron has stabilized, the social inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly, and steel mills have increased production cuts in December. The stainless - steel futures continue to rebound, and short - term long - position operations are recommended, waiting for high - selling hedging opportunities [1]. - Tin: The situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is still tense. The short - term macro - sentiment has improved, and coupled with capital speculation, the tin price has strengthened [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold: Due to loose liquidity and rising geopolitical tensions, the gold price has reached a new high and may run strongly in the short term, but there are risks of volatility [1]. - Silver: Macro - drive, supply - demand imbalance, and ETF position increase are beneficial to silver, but there are risks of short - term sharp fluctuations [1]. - Platinum and Palladium: Driven by macro - factors, supply - demand imbalance, and capital sentiment, they may maintain a bullish pattern in the short term, but there are risks of market fluctuations, and investors are advised to participate cautiously [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: The basis and production profit are not high, indicating that the price valuation is not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1]. - Iron Ore: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contract still has upward opportunities [1]. - Ferrosilicon: The direct demand is weak, the supply is high, and the price is under pressure [1]. - Glass: The supply - demand situation provides support, the valuation is low, and the price fluctuates strongly in the short term due to sentiment [1]. - Soda Ash: It follows the trend of glass, with acceptable supply - demand and low valuation, and may be under pressure and oscillate [1]. - Coking Coal and Coke: After the negative news was released, there are signs of stabilization, and attention should be paid to whether downstream enterprises will start winter - storage replenishment [1]. - High - Ash Coal: Although high - frequency data have improved, it is difficult to change the expectation of loose supply in the origin, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Affected by the decline of CBOT and other domestic oils, it is running weakly [1]. - Soybean Oil: Affected by the weak performance of related markets, it is running weakly [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: The short - term raw - material shortage theme is expected to be fully priced, and short - selling the 05 contract is recommended due to the expected high yield in the global main production areas [1]. - Cotton: There is support from the purchase price of seed cotton, and there is rigid replenishment demand in the downstream. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no drive", and attention should be paid to policies, planting area, and demand in the future [1]. - Sugar: There is a consensus on short - selling in the market. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support below, but there is a lack of continuous drive in the short - term fundamentals [1]. - Wheat and Corn: The market supply - demand tension has eased, but farmers are reluctant to sell, and the inventory is at a low level. There is expected to be some replenishment demand before the Spring Festival, which limits the decline of the price [1]. - Pulp: Affected by weak demand and strong supply expectations, it fluctuates greatly. Unilateral operations are recommended to wait and see, and 1 - 5 reverse spreads can be considered for the spread [1]. - Log: Affected by the decline of external quotes and spot prices, the 01 contract is under pressure and is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - Live Pig: The spot price is gradually stabilizing, but the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Fuel Oil: It follows the trend of crude oil in the short term, and the supply of raw - material Marey crude oil is sufficient [1]. - Asphalt: The profit is relatively high, and it is affected by factors such as production - demand and cost [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: It is affected by factors such as inventory increase, cost decline, and policy changes [1]. - Short - Fiber: It closely follows the cost fluctuations [1]. - Steam: It is affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and production plans, and the market expectation is weak [1]. - PP: The supply pressure is large, the downstream improvement is less than expected, and the market expectation is weak [1]. - PVC: The supply pressure is increasing, the demand is weak, and the price is oscillating within a range [1]. - LPG: After the price correction, it maintains range - bound oscillation, and attention should be paid to the impact of natural gas on the near - month price and the decline of the far - month spread [1]. - Shipping: The price increase in December was less than expected, the supply of shipping capacity was relatively loose, and the market was affected by various factors [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The gold market shows strength with the Fed's expected rate - cut, suggesting a long - position for gold and a wait - and - see approach for silver [1]. - For base metals, different strategies are recommended for each metal based on their market performance, fundamentals, such as buying copper on dips, expecting aluminum to oscillate in the short - term, and predicting alumina to decline with oscillations [2]. - In the black industry, a wait - and - see approach is generally recommended, with attempts to short certain contracts like螺纹2605 and焦煤09 [5]. - In the agricultural products market, various trading strategies are proposed according to the supply - demand situation of different products, such as trading South American soybean bumper harvest expectations and weak exports for soybeans, and shorting sugar futures [6]. - For energy and chemical products, different trading strategies are given based on the supply - demand balance, including short - term oscillations and long - term improvement for some products, and short - selling for others [7][8]. 3. Summary by Category Gold and Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: International gold prices broke through and strengthened, standing above $4400 per ounce, and domestic gold prices exceeded 1000 yuan. Silver inventories showed different trends in different markets [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Fed officials' statements, geopolitical events, and inventory changes in gold and silver affected the market. For example, the Fed may not cut rates until next spring, and there were changes in gold and silver inventories in different exchanges and ETFs [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Long gold and wait - and - see for silver [1]. Base Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices oscillated [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The implementation time of US refined copper tariffs may be postponed, and the supply of copper mines remained tight [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips [2]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 0.16% compared to the previous trading day [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product start - up rate decreased slightly [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect aluminum prices to oscillate in the short - term within the current high - level range [2]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the alumina main contract decreased by 0.08% compared to the previous trading day [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Alumina plants' operating capacity remained stable, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect alumina prices to decline with oscillations [2]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the沪锌2601 contract increased by 0.09% compared to the previous trading day, and social inventories increased [3]. - **Fundamentals**: LME zinc inventories increased significantly, and the consumption off - season deepened [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rallies [3]. Lead - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the沪铅2601 contract increased by 0.27% compared to the previous trading day, and social inventories decreased [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of primary lead recovered after maintenance, while the supply of recycled lead decreased significantly. The lead battery start - up rate decreased slightly [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Trade within a range, with a focus on long - positions at low prices [3]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract decreased by 1.09% compared to the previous trading day, and the position increased [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The number of open furnaces decreased, and social inventories decreased. The demand from related industries remained stable [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the price to oscillate weakly in the range of 8000 - 9000, and adopt a wait - and - see approach [3]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: LC2605 increased by 2.7% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The price of Australian lithium concentrate increased, production increased, and demand decreased in some sectors. December saw inventory reduction [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect short - term price increase with oscillations [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract decreased by 2.32% compared to the previous trading day, and the position decreased [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply remained stable, demand decreased, and inventories increased slightly [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider long - positions on dips after the price returns to the spot trading range [4]. Black Industry Steel - **Market Performance**: The螺纹2605 contract increased by 25 yuan/ton compared to the previous night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Steel mills continued to make losses, production might decline marginally, and the futures were at a large discount [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach and attempt to short螺纹2605 [5]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The铁矿2605 contract decreased by 1.5 yuan/ton compared to the previous night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Iron ore supply and demand were weak, and the port inventory increased [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [5]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The焦煤2605 contract increased by 19 yuan/ton compared to the previous night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Coking coal supply and demand were weak, and the futures were at a premium [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach and attempt to short焦煤09 [5]. Agricultural Products Market Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: The CBOT soybean rebounded overnight [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Global soybean supply - demand is expected to be loose, with strong US soybean crushing and slow exports [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Trade South American soybean bumper harvest expectations and weak exports, and the domestic market is driven down by cost in the short - term [6]. Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn futures prices are weak, and spot prices slightly declined [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The grain - selling progress slowed down, and downstream demand decreased [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate [6]. Oils and Fats - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian palm oil market rose in the short - term [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is in seasonal decline but with year - on - year growth, and demand shows an increase in exports [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oils and fats may enter an oscillation phase with product differentiation [6]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: The郑糖05 contract increased by 0.41% [6]. - **Fundamentals**: International sugar prices rebounded slightly, and the domestic market followed with a smaller increase. The long - term global sugar production is expected to increase [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short sugar futures and sell call options [6]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg futures prices are weak, and spot prices increased [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The inventory of laying hens decreased, and demand is affected by price changes [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate weakly [6]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: Pig futures prices oscillate, and spot prices show a north - up and south - down pattern [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is still abundant, and demand is expected to increase seasonally [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate [6]. Energy and Chemical Products LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The LLDPE main contract continued to decline slightly [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure eases, and demand weakens in the agricultural film sector [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillation with a downward trend, and long - positions on dips for far - month contracts [7]. PVC - **Market Performance**: V05 decreased by 1.7% [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increases, demand weakens, and inventory is at a high level [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell or use reverse spreads [7]. PTA - **Market Performance**: PX and PTA prices are at certain levels with a specific basis [7]. - **Fundamentals**: PX supply is high, and PTA has short - term supply decline and medium - term inventory accumulation pressure [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Long - position PX in the medium - term and look for opportunities to long PTA processing margins in 05 [7]. Glass - **Market Performance**: fg05 decreased by 1.5% [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Glass prices decline, and inventory accumulates. Supply and demand are both weak [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Use reverse spreads [7]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP main contract continued to decline slightly [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increases, demand weakens, and the export window opens [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillation with a downward trend, and long - positions on dips for far - month contracts [8]. MEG - **Market Performance**: MEG has a certain spot price and basis [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is high, inventory accumulates, and demand weakens in the off - season [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Take profit in the short - term and look for inventory reduction opportunities in the medium - term for 05 [8]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Oil prices rose due to short - term supply reduction [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure is large, and demand is in the off - season [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell crude oil on rallies [8]. Styrene - **Market Performance**: The EB main contract rebounded slightly [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is weak in the short - term, and demand is in the off - season [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillation with a downward trend, and long - positions on dips for styrene and related spreads in the second quarter [8]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: sa05 decreased by 0.8% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increases with new device production, and demand from photovoltaic glass is weak with high inventory [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Use reverse spreads [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports - **Natural Rubber**: With geopolitical tensions affecting supply in Thailand and domestic产区 entering the off - season, there is support at the bottom of rubber prices. However, due to high production and sales pressure and the seasonal demand slump, the market is weak. Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate widely between 15,000 - 15,500 yuan/ton [1]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: For soda ash, the supply may increase with the potential output from new projects, and demand is shrinking, so the price is expected to continue to decline with occasional technical rebounds. For glass, the spot price is stable but facing weakening demand in the north and high inventory in the middle - stream, so the futures price may be under pressure and continue to oscillate at the bottom [3]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda industry still has supply - demand pressure, and prices are expected to be weak. The PVC market is affected by high supply, low demand, and cost pressure, and is expected to maintain range - bound trading and then weaken after a rebound [4]. - **Polyolefins**: The market is trading on the expectation of high production in 2026 and weak current conditions. Both PE and PP are facing downward pressure on prices, with the price center expected to decline further [6]. - **Methanol**: Although the port may face inventory accumulation in December, there is an expected shift to inventory reduction in the first quarter of the next year. The inland market is expected to be stable with prices fluctuating slightly [10]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The short - term driving force for pure benzene is weak due to weak downstream demand and cost support, but there is an expectation of improvement after the spring maintenance. Styrene is expected to oscillate between 6300 - 6700 yuan/ton due to sufficient supply and weak cost support [13]. - **LPG**: The LPG market shows a pattern of stable prices, inventory reduction, and some improvement in downstream demand. The price is expected to be relatively stable with some fluctuations [15]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: For PX, it may continue to be strong unless there is substantial production reduction in the polyester sector. PTA is expected to follow the raw material price with limited independent movement. MEG is expected to oscillate at a low level. Short - fiber prices follow the raw material, and the processing fee of bottle - chips is expected to be compressed [17]. - **Crude Oil**: The market is dominated by geopolitical factors. With high supply and weak demand, the price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the price of Brent crude at $60 per barrel [18]. - **Urea**: The futures price is weak, while the spot price is rising. The Indian tender is beneficial for exports, but high supply and weak demand in the domestic market lead to a difficult price trend. The futures price is expected to oscillate between 1680 - 1730 yuan/ton [20]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber - **Price and Spread**: The prices of Yunnan state - owned rubber, Thai - standard mixed rubber, etc. have decreased. The basis and inter - contract spreads have also changed. For example, the all - milk basis decreased by 25.93% [1]. - **Production and Supply**: Thailand's production decreased slightly in October, while India's increased. China's production decreased. The opening rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires changed slightly, and tire production and exports increased in November [1]. - **Inventory**: The bonded - area inventory increased, while the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased [1]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Spread**: The prices of glass and soda ash in different regions were mostly stable, with some futures prices decreasing. The basis of some contracts increased [3]. - **Supply**: The soda ash production rate and weekly output decreased slightly, while the melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass remained unchanged [3]. - **Inventory**: The glass inventory increased slightly, the soda ash factory inventory increased slightly, and the soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory decreased [3]. - **Real Estate Data**: The new construction area, construction area, and sales area decreased year - on - year, while the completion area increased [3]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Price and Spread**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda in different forms decreased, and the basis and inter - contract spreads changed. For example, the V - basis increased by 2600% [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda industry's supply - demand pressure remains, and the PVC industry has high supply and low demand. The opening rates of related industries changed slightly [4]. - **Inventory**: The caustic soda inventory in some regions decreased, and the PVC upstream factory inventory increased while the total social inventory decreased [4]. Polyolefins - **Price and Spread**: The prices of LLDPE, PP futures and spot decreased, and the spreads between different contracts and varieties changed. For example, the LP01 spread decreased by 39.39% [6]. - **Inventory and Production**: The PE and PP enterprise inventories and social inventories changed, and the device opening rates of PE and PP also changed [6]. Methanol - **Price and Spread**: The prices of methanol futures and spot decreased, and the basis and inter - contract spreads changed. For example, the MA15 spread increased by 23.81% [8]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory increased, while the port inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased [9]. - **Production and Supply**: The upstream and downstream opening rates of methanol changed slightly [10]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Price and Spread**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene futures and spot changed slightly, and the spreads between different contracts and varieties changed. For example, the EB02 - EB03 spread increased by 0.3% [13]. - **Inventory and Production**: The pure benzene inventory remained unchanged, and the opening rates of related industries decreased [13]. LPG - **Price and Spread**: The prices of LPG futures and spot changed slightly, and the basis and inter - contract spreads changed. For example, the PG01 - 02 spread decreased by 0.83% [15]. - **Inventory and Production**: The LPG refinery inventory ratio remained stable, the port inventory decreased, and the upstream and downstream opening rates changed [15]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Price and Spread**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as PX and downstream polyester products changed. The spreads between different contracts and varieties also changed. For example, the PX - naphtha spread increased by 12.4% [17]. - **Inventory and Production**: The MEG port inventory increased, and the opening rates of various industries in the polyester industry chain changed [17]. Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil changed, and the spreads between different contracts and varieties changed. For example, the Brent - WTI spread increased by 3.40% [18]. - **Refined Oil**: The prices of refined oil products such as RBOB, ULSD, and Gasoil changed, and the spreads between different contracts also changed [18]. Urea - **Price and Spread**: The futures price of urea decreased slightly, and the spreads between different contracts changed. The spot price increased [20]. - **Inventory and Production**: The urea production is at a high level, the factory inventory decreased, and the port inventory increased slightly [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although the geopolitical premium has completely dissipated and OPEC has increased production in a very limited amount, and OPEC's supply has not yet increased significantly, so oil prices should not be overly bearish in the short term. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high for oil prices, but currently, oil prices need to test OPEC's willingness to support prices through exports. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and wait for a decline in OPEC exports to confirm when oil prices fall [2]. - After the bullish factors are realized, the methanol market has entered a short - term consolidation. The port inventory has further decreased due to port back - flow and trans - shipment. However, the import arrivals will remain high, and the port olefin plants have maintenance plans. The overall supply is at a high level, and the methanol fundamentals still face some pressure. It is expected to consolidate at a low level, and a unilateral strategy of waiting and seeing is recommended [4]. - The urea market has continued to rise in a volatile manner. The reserve demand and the increase in compound fertilizer production have led to an improvement in short - term demand. The supply is expected to decline seasonally. The overall supply - demand situation of urea has improved, and there is support from export policies and costs. It is expected to build a bottom in a volatile manner. It is recommended to consider buying on dips [7]. - For rubber, a neutral approach is currently adopted, and short - term operations with quick entry and exit are recommended. Holding a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is advised [12]. - The PVC market has a poor fundamental situation. The domestic supply is strong while the demand is weak, and it is difficult to reverse the oversupply situation. Although there is a short - term rebound driven by sentiment, in the medium term, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended before there is a substantial reduction in industry production [14]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to low, and there is a large space for valuation repair. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant, and the port inventory of styrene has been continuously decreasing. It is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [17]. - For polyethylene, although the PE valuation has limited downward space, the high number of warehouse receipts in the same period of history suppresses the market. The overall inventory is at a high level but is decreasing. It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [20]. - For polypropylene, under the background of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. There is no prominent contradiction in the short term. It is expected that the supply - surplus situation at the cost end will change in the first quarter of next year, which may support the market [23]. - For PX, it is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in December. The current valuation is at a neutral level, and opportunities to go long on dips are worth paying attention to [26]. - For PTA, the supply will maintain a high level of maintenance in the short term, and the demand will gradually decline due to the off - season. The PTA processing fee has limited upward space in the short term. Opportunities to go long on dips based on expectations are recommended [28]. - For ethylene glycol, the domestic supply has improved due to unexpected maintenance, but the overall load is still high, and the port inventory is in a build - up cycle. There is a risk of a rebound due to further increases in maintenance. [31] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 1.70 yuan/barrel, a 0.40% decline, at 426.60 yuan/barrel. Singapore's ESG weekly oil product data showed that gasoline inventories increased by 0.06 million barrels to 15.06 million barrels, a 0.43% increase; diesel inventories increased by 0.07 million barrels to 8.43 million barrels, a 0.85% increase; fuel oil inventories decreased by 1.40 million barrels to 24.66 million barrels, a 5.39% decrease; total refined oil inventories decreased by 1.27 million barrels to 48.15 million barrels, a 2.57% decrease [8]. - **Strategy**: Although the geopolitical premium has completely dissipated and OPEC has increased production in a very limited amount, and OPEC's supply has not yet increased significantly, so oil prices should not be overly bearish in the short term. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high for oil prices, but currently, oil prices need to test OPEC's willingness to support prices through exports. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and wait for a decline in OPEC exports to confirm when oil prices fall [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu changed by 38 yuan/ton, in Lunan by 5 yuan/ton, in Henan by 25 yuan/ton, in Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia by - 12.5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 26 yuan/ton, reporting 2148 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit was reported at - 159 yuan [3]. - **Strategy**: After the bullish factors are realized, the methanol market has entered a short - term consolidation. The port inventory has further decreased due to port back - flow and trans - shipment. However, the import arrivals will remain high, and the port olefin plants have maintenance plans. The overall supply is at a high level, and the methanol fundamentals still face some pressure. It is expected to consolidate at a low level, and a unilateral strategy of waiting and seeing is recommended [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong changed by 20 yuan/ton, in Henan by 10 yuan/ton, in Hebei by 10 yuan/ton, in Hubei by 0 yuan/ton, in Jiangsu by 20 yuan/ton, in Shanxi by 20 yuan/ton, and in the Northeast by 0 yuan/ton. The total basis was reported at - 17 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 11 yuan/ton, reporting 1697 yuan/ton [6]. - **Strategy**: The urea market has continued to rise in a volatile manner. The reserve demand and the increase in compound fertilizer production have led to an improvement in short - term demand. The supply is expected to decline seasonally. The overall supply - demand situation of urea has improved, and there is support from export policies and costs. It is expected to build a bottom in a volatile manner. It is recommended to consider buying on dips [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price has been consolidating. The exchange's RU inventory warrants are at a low level, and the buying demand for winter storage is a bullish factor. The bulls believe in seasonal expectations and improved demand, while the bears are concerned about macro uncertainties and weak demand. As of December 18, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 64.66%, up 1.08 percentage points from last week and 2.56 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 72.76%, down 0.24 percentage points from last week and 5.93 percentage points from the same period last year. The inventory of semi - steel tires has increased. As of December 14, 2025, the total social inventory of natural rubber in China was 115.2 tons, a 2.6% increase from the previous month [10][11]. - **Strategy**: A neutral approach is currently adopted, and short - term operations with quick entry and exit are recommended. Holding a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is advised [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 56 yuan, reporting 4652 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4400 (- 30) yuan/ton, the basis was - 252 (+ 26) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 129 (+ 1) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 77.4%, a 2.1% decrease from the previous period. The demand - side overall downstream operating rate was 45.4%, a 3.5% decrease from the previous period. The factory inventory was 32.9 tons (- 1.6), and the social inventory was 105.7 tons (- 0.3) [12]. - **Strategy**: The PVC market has a poor fundamental situation. The domestic supply is strong while the demand is weak, and it is difficult to reverse the oversupply situation. Although there is a short - term rebound driven by sentiment, in the medium term, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended before there is a substantial reduction in industry production [14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5275 yuan/ton, unchanged. The closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 5394 yuan/ton, unchanged. The pure benzene basis was - 119 yuan/ton, narrowing by 13 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 6500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. The closing price of the active styrene contract was 6402 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton. The basis was 98 yuan/ton, weakening by 67 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 129.12 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton. The EB non - integrated plant profit was - 406.75 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton. The EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, narrowing by 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 69.13%, up 1.02%. The inventory in Jiangsu ports was 13.47 tons, a decrease of 1.21 tons. The weighted operating rate of the three S products was 40.60%, down 1.67%. The PS operating rate was 54.50%, down 3.80%, the EPS operating rate was 51.81%, down 1.96%, and the ABS operating rate was 71.00%, up 0.47% [16]. - **Strategy**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to low, and there is a large space for valuation repair. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant, and the port inventory of styrene has been continuously decreasing. It is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [17]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main polyethylene contract was 6320 yuan/ton, down 156 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6450 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton. The basis was 130 yuan/ton, strengthening by 96 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.58%, a 0.92% decrease from the previous period. The production enterprise inventory was 48.78 tons, a 1.72 - ton increase from the previous week, and the trader inventory was 3.56 tons, a 0.20 - ton decrease from the previous week. The downstream average operating rate was 42.45%, a 0.55% decrease from the previous period. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 47 yuan/ton, narrowing by 9 yuan/ton [19]. - **Strategy**: Although the PE valuation has limited downward space, the high number of warehouse receipts in the same period of history suppresses the market. The overall inventory is at a high level but is decreasing. It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main polypropylene contract was 6213 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6275 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 62 yuan/ton, strengthening by 66 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 77.74%, a 1.66% decrease from the previous period. The production enterprise inventory was 53.78 tons, a 0.07 - ton increase from the previous week, the trader inventory was 19.83 tons, a 0.9 - ton decrease from the previous week, and the port inventory was 6.75 tons, a 0.07 - ton decrease from the previous week. The downstream average operating rate was 53.8%, a 0.19% decrease from the previous period. The LL - PP spread was 107 yuan/ton, narrowing by 90 yuan/ton [22]. - **Strategy**: Under the background of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. There is no prominent contradiction in the short term. It is expected that the supply - surplus situation at the cost end will change in the first quarter of next year, which may support the market [23]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract rose 208 yuan, reporting 7070 yuan. The PX CFR rose 26 dollars, reporting 866 dollars. The basis was - 28 yuan (unchanged), and the 3 - 5 spread was 54 yuan (+ 22). The PX operating rate in China was 88.1%, unchanged from the previous period, and the Asian operating rate was 78.9%, down 0.4%. In terms of plants, a 26 - ton plant of Japan's Eneos restarted, and a 55 - ton plant of South Korea's GS was under maintenance. The PTA operating rate was 73.2%, down 0.5%. In terms of imports, South Korea's PX exports to China in the first ten days of December were 13.9 tons, a 0.5 - ton decrease from the same period last year. The inventory at the end of October was 407.4 tons, a 4.8 - ton increase from the previous month. The PXN was 305 dollars (+ 4), the South Korean PX - MX was 143 dollars (+ 1), and the naphtha crack spread was 97 dollars (+ 9) [25]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in December. The current valuation is at a neutral level, and opportunities to go long on dips are worth paying attention to [26]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 134 yuan, reporting 4882 yuan. The East - China spot price rose 100 yuan, reporting 4750 yuan. The basis was - 10 yuan (+ 1), and the 5 - 9 spread was 72 yuan (+ 4). The PTA operating rate was 73.2%, down 0.5%. The downstream operating rate was 91.2%, unchanged. The terminal texturing operating rate decreased by 4% to 79%, and the loom operating rate decreased by 5% to 62%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on December 12 was 215 tons, a 1.9 - ton decrease from the previous period. The PTA spot processing fee fell 37 yuan to 130 yuan, and the futures processing fee fell 3 yuan to 244 yuan [27]. - **Strategy**: The supply will maintain a high level of maintenance in the short term, and the demand will gradually decline due to the off - season. The PTA processing fee has limited upward space in the short term. Opportunities to go long on dips based on expectations are recommended [28]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 29 yuan, reporting 3738 yuan. The East - China spot price fell 34 yuan, reporting 3633 yuan. The basis was - 16 yuan (+ 6), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 66 yuan (+ 1). The ethylene glycol operating rate was 72%, up 2%. The synthetic - gas - based operating rate was 75.5%, up 3.3%, and the ethylene - based operating rate was 70%, up 1.3%. In terms of plants, Zheng Dakai restarted, and a line of Yankuang was under maintenance. The import arrival forecast was 11.8 tons, and the East - China departure on December 18 was 0.86 tons. The port inventory was 84.4 tons, a 2.5 - ton increase from the previous period. The naphtha - based profit was - 834 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based profit was - 964 yuan, and the coal - based profit was 29 yuan. The ethylene price remained unchanged at 745 dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines fell to 570 yuan [30]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply has improved due to unexpected maintenance, but the overall load is still high, and the port inventory is in a build - up cycle. There is a risk of a rebound due to further increases in maintenance [31].

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: BR Rubber [1] - **Bearish**: Industrial Silicon, Palm Oil [1] - **Neutral (Oscillation)**: Bonds, Agricultural Products, Alumina, Zinc, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals (Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium), Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Ore, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, Soybeans, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Wheat, Corn, Pulp, Logs, Live Pigs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Bitumen, Ethylene Glycol, Benzene - Naphtha, Urea, Propylene, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG, Container Shipping to Europe [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short term, the stock index is expected to continue its weak trend, but the market adjustment since mid - November has opened up space for the upward movement of the stock index next year [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks [1] - The market sentiment is volatile, and there are opportunities to go long at low levels for some products [1] 3. Summary by Industry Macro - Financial - **Stock Index**: Short - term weak operation, long - term upward potential. Investors can gradually establish long positions during the adjustment period [1] - **Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest - rate risks are warned. Pay attention to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Aluminum**: High - level wide - range oscillation due to limited industrial drive and fluctuating macro sentiment [1] - **Alumina**: Weak domestic fundamentals, short - term price rebound but limited upward drive [1] - **Zinc**: Fundamentals improved, cost center shifted up, but price is under pressure. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities [1] - **Nickel**: After a sharp decline, there is a demand for position - reduction repair. Short - term trading is recommended, and the long - term supply of primary nickel is in surplus [1] - **Stainless Steel**: Short - term trading is recommended, waiting for opportunities to sell on rallies [1] - **Tin**: Short - term oscillation, long - term bullish. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities during corrections [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: Supported by the cooling of the US CPI in November, but short - term volatility risks need to be vigilant [1] - **Industrial Silicon**: Bearish due to increased production in the northwest, reduced production in the southwest, and decreased production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December [1] - **Polysilicon**: There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the long - term, marginal improvement in terminal installation in the fourth quarter, and strong price - holding and low - delivery willingness of large enterprises [1] - **Lithium**: In the traditional peak season of new energy vehicles, with strong energy - storage demand, increased production on the supply side, and the potential to break through previous highs [1] Ferrous Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Roll over and take profits on cash - and - carry positions. Valuation is not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1] - **Iron Ore**: Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but far - month contracts have upward potential [1] - **Manganese Ore and Ferrosilicon**: Prices are under pressure due to weak direct demand, high supply, and inventory accumulation [1] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Supply and demand provide support, valuation is low, but short - term price fluctuations are strong [1] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: After a decline, there are signs of stabilization. Pay attention to winter - storage replenishment by downstream enterprises this week [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Short - term short - selling is recommended due to continuous negative high - frequency data and high pressure on the origin [1] - **Soybeans**: Pay attention to the negative impact of imported soybean auctions on the supply side [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: It is recommended to short the 05 contract as the near - term raw - material shortage theme is expected to be exhausted [1] - **Cotton**: The market is currently supported but lacks a driving force. Pay attention to relevant policies and market conditions in the future [1] - **Sugar**: There is a consensus on short - selling, but there is strong cost support below. Pay attention to changes in the capital side [1] - **Wheat and Corn**: The short - term decline is limited by farmers' price - holding sentiment and downstream stocking demand before the Spring Festival [1] - **Pulp**: Unilateral trading is recommended to wait and see, and consider the 1 - 5 reverse spread [1] - **Logs**: The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly as it approaches the delivery month [1] - **Live Pigs**: Production capacity still needs to be further released [1] Energy and Chemical Industry - **Crude Oil and Fuel Oil**: Affected by OPEC+ production - suspension, the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports [1] - **Bitumen**: Follows crude oil in the short term, with high profit and possible falsification of the 14th - Five - Year Plan's rush - demand [1] - **BR Rubber**: Bullish due to improved cost - side support, increased sales, and high operating rates [1] - **PTA and Short - Fiber**: The PTA device operates at a high load, and short - fiber prices follow costs closely [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Prices decline due to inventory accumulation and weakening cost support [1] - **Benzene - Naphtha**: There is slight cost - side support, but overall production economy is negative, and inventory is high [1] - **Urea, Propylene, PVC, and Caustic Soda**: Prices oscillate due to factors such as supply - demand imbalance, cost changes, and reduced anti - involution sentiment [1] - **LPG**: The market is affected by geopolitical factors, and prices oscillate after a decline. Pay attention to the impact of natural gas on near - month prices [1] Other - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The price increase in December was less than expected, and the supply of shipping capacity was relatively loose [1]