铅：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/08 | | 国内价格 | LME价格 | 比价 | | 均衡比价 | 盈利 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现货 | 16950 | 2018 | 8.41 | | | | | 三月 | 17225 | 2043 | 10.86 | 现货进口 | 8.84 | -854.51 | 跨期套利跟踪 2025/07/08 铜 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -720 -870 -1120 -1350 理论价差 502 902 1311 1720 锌 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -350 -400 -465 -515 理论价差 215 336 458 579 铝 次月-现货月 三月-现货月四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -405 -460 -550 -635 理论价差 215 331 447 563 铅 次月-现货月 三月-现货 月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -30 -15 -30 -55 理论价差 211 318 426 533 镍 次月-现货 ...

| | 20250707申万期货有色金属基差日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 铜： 可能短期区间波动 | | | | 锌： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | 摘要 | 铝： 可能窄幅震荡为主 | | | | 镍： 可能短期内震荡 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收平。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶炼产量。 | | | 铜 | 根据国家统计局数据来看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电力行业延续正增 长；汽车产销正增长；家电产量增速趋缓；地产持续疲弱。多空因素交织， | 可能短期区 | | | 铜价可能区间波动。关注美国关税进展，以及美元、铜冶炼和家电产量等因 | 间波动 | | | 素变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收跌。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由国家统计局数据来看，国 内汽车产销正增长，基建稳定增长，家电产量增速趋缓，地产持续疲弱。市 | 可能短期宽 | | 锌 | 场预期今年精矿供应明显改善，冶炼供应可能恢复。短期锌价可能宽幅波 | 幅波动 | | | 动，关注美国关税进展，以及美元、锌冶炼和家电产量等因素变化。 | | | | 铝：夜盘沪 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for various non - ferrous metals (copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, tin) on July 7, 2025 [1][3][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On July 7, 2025, the domestic spot price was 80,510, the LME price was 9,967, and the ratio was 8.12; the three - month domestic price was 79,560, the LME price was 9,872, and the ratio was 8.12. The equilibrium ratio for spot imports was 8.14, with a loss of 974.44, and a profit of 431.04 for spot exports [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22,410, the LME price was 2,719, and the ratio was 8.24; the three - month domestic price was 22,350, the LME price was 2,741, and the ratio was 6.30. The equilibrium ratio for spot imports was 8.65, with a loss of 1,124.13 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 20,770, the LME price was 2,596, and the ratio was 8.00; the three - month domestic price was 20,565, the LME price was 2,599, and the ratio was 7.94. The equilibrium ratio for spot imports was 8.49, with a loss of 1,293.08 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 121,600, the LME price was 15,206, and the ratio was 8.00. The equilibrium ratio for spot imports was 8.23, with a loss of 2,573.25 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 17,025, the LME price was 2,038, and the ratio was 8.35; the three - month domestic price was 17,305, the LME price was 2,063, and the ratio was 10.82. The equilibrium ratio for spot imports was 8.82, with a loss of 950.80 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract were - 1,050, - 1,220, - 1,490, and - 1,730 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 506, 910, 1,323, and 1,736 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 25, - 35, - 100, and - 165, and the theoretical spreads were 215, 336, 457, and 578 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were - 235, - 305, - 380, and - 480, and the theoretical spreads were 215, 332, 448, and 564 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 40, 50, 45, and 55, and the theoretical spreads were 211, 319, 426, and 533 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads were 630, 720, 830, and 1,000 [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was 310, and the theoretical spread was 5,522 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot were 280 and - 770 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 270 and 562 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 25 and 0, and the theoretical spreads were 113 and 244 (also 130 and 221 in another record) [4][5] - **Lead**: The spreads were 230 and 270, and the theoretical spreads were 147 and 261 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - continuous) were 3.56, 3.87, 4.60, 0.92, 1.19, and 0.77 respectively; for LME (three - continuous), they were 3.62, 3.81, 4.79, 0.95, 1.26, and 0.76 [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report Core View - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on July 4, 2025 [1][3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On July 4, 2025, the domestic spot price was 80,960, the LME price was 10,069, and the spot import equilibrium ratio was 8.14 with a profit of - 1000.59 [1]. - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22,380, the LME price was 2,725, and the spot import equilibrium ratio was 8.66 with a profit of - 1212.59 [1]. - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 20,860, the LME price was 2,607, and the spot import equilibrium ratio was 8.50 with a profit of - 1302.79 [1]. - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 120,650, the LME price was 15,163, and the spot import equilibrium ratio was 8.24 with a profit of - 2919.07 [1]. - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 17,025, the LME price was 2,043, and the spot import equilibrium ratio was 8.82 with a profit of - 1022.99 [3]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On July 4, 2025, the spread between the next - month and spot - month was - 170, and the theoretical spread was 506 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spread between the next - month and spot - month was 15, and the theoretical spread was 215 [4]. - **Aluminum**: The spread between the next - month and spot - month was - 170, and the theoretical spread was 215 [4]. - **Lead**: The spread between the next - month and spot - month was 100, and the theoretical spread was 211 [4]. - **Nickel**: The spread between the next - month and spot - month was 670 [4]. - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was - 340, and the theoretical spread was 5546 [4]. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spread between the current - month contract and spot was - 215, and the theoretical spread was 213 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spread between the current - month contract and spot was - 70, and the theoretical spread was 110 [4]. - **Lead**: The spread between the current - month contract and spot was 120, and the theoretical spread was 135 [5]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On July 4, 2025, the Shanghai (three - continuous) copper/zinc ratio was 3.61, copper/aluminum was 3.90, copper/lead was 4.65, aluminum/zinc was 0.93, aluminum/lead was 1.19, and lead/zinc was 0.78; the LME (three - continuous) ratios were 3.62, 3.82, 4.82, 0.95, 1.26, and 0.75 respectively [5].

铅：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/03 跨期套利跟踪 2025/07/03 铜 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -280 -470 -770 -1000 理论价差 506 910 1323 1736 锌 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -85 -140 -195 -245 理论价差 215 335 456 576 铝 次月-现货月 三月-现货月四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -165 -235 -325 -435 理论价差 215 331 447 563 铅 次月-现货月 三月-现货 月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 105 120 120 125 理论价差 210 317 423 529 镍 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货 月 五月-现货月 价差 690 780 940 1050 锡 5-1 价差 -1000 理论价差 5546 期现套利跟踪 2025/07/03 铜 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 -140 -420 理论价差 237 644 锌 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 25 -60 理论价差 113 243 国 ...

Group 1 - The Dachen Nonferrous ETF (159980.SZ) has shown a bullish signal after three months, entering a relatively certain bullish cycle, with continuous fund inflows [1] - The ETF's underlying index includes six components: copper (approximately 50%), aluminum (approximately 16%), nickel (approximately 11%), tin (approximately 8%), lead (approximately 8%), and zinc (approximately 8%), all maintaining bullish signals at the daily level [1] - As of July 1, the Dachen Nonferrous ETF has seen a net inflow of 81.7191 million yuan over the past five days, reaching a new high in scale at 966 million yuan and a new high in shares at 565 million [1] Group 2 - Citic Securities analysis indicates that the refined copper market remains in a tight balance due to limited production guidance and declining TC/RC fees, with support for copper prices from China's economic stability and a soft landing in the U.S. economy [2] - Current market prices for copper are considered reasonable, with potential for further upward movement contingent on domestic macro policies and overseas economic recovery [2] - Expectations of rising inflation, interest rate cuts, and a slight decline in the U.S. dollar index may support copper prices in maintaining a strong oscillating trend [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ☆☆☆ (White stars, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but poor operability on the market) [1] - Alumina: ☆☆☆ (White stars) [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not rated [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ (One star) [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆ (White stars) [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ (One star) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer long/short trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity) [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★ (Three stars) [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ (Three stars) [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall performance of the non - ferrous metals market is affected by multiple factors such as macro - economy, supply - demand fundamentals, and technical trends. Different metals have different price trends and investment suggestions [2][3][4] - Some metals are in a state of high inventory, which affects their price trends and investment opportunities. For example, lithium carbonate has high inventory, and its price rebound is not stable [9] - Market sentiment and external events also have an impact on metal prices. For example, the US dollar index, fiscal policies, and manufacturing PMI data can all affect the price of non - ferrous metals [2][4] Summary by Metal Copper - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai copper in the afternoon session increased in position and rose to 80,600 yuan. The spot copper was reported at 80,205 yuan, with a premium in Shanghai of 200 yuan and in Guangdong rising to 90 yuan. The refined - scrap price difference was still 2,100 yuan. In July, the LME Hong Kong warehouse will be put into use, and attention should be paid to the logistics impact. Technically, the short - term upward trend of Shanghai copper may reach above 81,000 yuan. Long - term trend trading is still recommended to focus on short - selling at high levels [2] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated today. The spot premium in East China continued to decline by 30 yuan to 40 yuan, the processing fee of aluminum rods in South China fell to negative, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots continued to increase slightly. There are signs of advanced terminal consumption and off - season negative feedback. The recent improvement in macro - risk appetite has promoted the strength of non - ferrous metals. The position of the Shanghai aluminum index is at a high level in recent years, indicating great market divergence. Be vigilant against the risk of a phased correction. Cast aluminum alloy fluctuated narrowly, and the Baotai ADC12 quotation was stable at 19,500 yuan. The peak - season contract maintained a certain premium. The spot price difference between aluminum and cast aluminum alloy is large, but the price difference between AL2511 and AD2511 only fluctuates around 400 yuan. If it expands, consider a long - AD and short - AL strategy. Recently, the spot transaction price of alumina is 3,000 - 3,100 yuan. The price of Guinea ore has stabilized at 75 US dollars, corresponding to the cost in Shanxi of around 3,000 yuan. The domestic operating capacity has increased for six consecutive weeks to over 93 million tons, and the spot liquidity has improved. In the context of oversupply, the futures market fluctuates weakly, and it is advisable to short at high levels [3] Zinc - Trump promoted the "big and beautiful" bill, the US dollar index continued to decline, and the external metal market was strong, which pulled up the domestic market. The fundamentals of zinc still show an increase in supply and weak demand. The zinc price first declined and then rose during the day, and closed down overall. The weighted position decreased by more than 6,000 lots to 268,800 lots, and the funds flowed out by 184 million yuan. The 600,000 - ton zinc smelter in Huoshaoyun has started feeding production, and the new production capacities of Wanyang and Yunnan Copper have gradually come into production. There is still pressure on the domestic supply side, and zinc is still mainly recommended for short - selling on rebounds [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded and fluctuated at a high level, and the market trading was active. In terms of spot, the premium of Jinchuan nickel was 2,600 yuan, the premium of imported nickel was 400 yuan, and the premium of electrowinning nickel was 150 yuan. The loading progress of nickel mines in the Philippines has limited impact on the supply of the ore end, and the calming of the situation in Indonesia is still the main pressure on the ore end. The price of high - nickel ferro - nickel is quoted at 913 yuan per nickel point, and the support from upstream prices has weakened significantly recently. In terms of inventory, the nickel - iron inventory increased to 35,000 tons, the pure nickel inventory decreased to 38,000 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory remained at a high level of around one million tons, with the latest report at 992,000 tons. Technically, Shanghai nickel is at the end of the rebound, waiting for the short - selling opportunity to mature [7] Tin - The main contract of Shanghai tin was driven by the sentiment in the copper market at the end of the session, and increased in position and rose nearly 270,000 yuan in the short term. Today's spot tin was 266,500 yuan, with a premium of 110 yuan over the delivery month. The tin market is in the off - season of consumption, and the price range of 268,000 - 272,000 yuan is considered a relatively high - level area. Contracts in the far - month are recommended for short - selling [8] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate fluctuated and rebounded, and the market trading was active. The total market inventory continued to rise to the recent highest level of 137,000 tons. Downstream replenishment increased by 300 tons to 40,635 tons, and traders continued to replenish inventory by 1,000 tons to 37,000 tons. The confidence of downstream enterprises has significantly increased. It is understood that the downstream production schedule in July is relatively strong, and the factor of rushing for exports still exists. Technically, lithium carbonate is in a rebound, but the current inventory is still high, and the ore price is also in the rebound period. The rebound of the futures price is not stable. However, from another perspective, the industrial chain still needs time to digest the new price level around 60,000 yuan, and it is regarded as a short - term fluctuation [9] Industrial Silicon - The futures price of industrial silicon significantly dropped to 7,765 yuan/ton, and the market trading cooled down. As Yunnan entered the wet season, many industrial silicon plants started to resume production today. At the same time, there is a new expectation of resuming production from a large factory in Xinjiang after the rumor of production reduction. There are frequent fluctuations on the supply side. After the price reached the 8,000 - yuan/ton mark, the chasing - up momentum of long - position funds weakened. Coupled with the possible entry of some hedging funds, the futures price quickly dropped. In addition, the theme of "anti - involution" has once again sparked heated discussions recently, and the market's expectation of supply - side regulation policies has increased. In summary, the price of industrial silicon is at a low level, with a mixture of long and short themes, and its trend is expected to be mainly volatile [10] Polysilicon - The futures price of polysilicon dropped significantly to 32,700 yuan/ton, and the market trading cooled down, which was affected to some extent by the callback of the industrial silicon futures. The weak reality of polysilicon continues. In July, downstream enterprises continued to revise down their monthly production schedules, and the total inventory of polysilicon remained at a high level of 270,000 tons. The increase in supply from leading enterprises is not clear for the time being. However, from the perspective of the futures price, it is still in a state of discount. Coupled with the recent resurgence of the "anti - involution" theme and the increasing market expectation of supply - side regulation policies, the downward space is still relatively limited, and the trend is expected to maintain a volatile state [11]

有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/06/30 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/30 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 80110 10134 7.81 三月 79760 9894 8.09 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.15 -2612.60 现货出口 1836.25 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/30 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22590 2765 8.17 三月 22345 2765 6.23 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.65 -1338.95 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/30 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 20890 2579 8.10 三月 20480 2579 7.99 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.55 -1159.58 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/30 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 119900 14975 8.01 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.25 -2723.01 或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我们均不承担任何责任。 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人 ...

| | 操作评级 | 2025年06月27日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | な女女 | 肖静 首席分析师 | | 铝 | ★☆☆ | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 氧化铝 | な☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 铸造铝合金 文文文 | | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 锌 | な☆☆ | 吴江 高级分析师 | | 铝 | な☆☆ | F3085524 Z0016394 | | 镇及不锈钢 ☆☆☆ | | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | 锡 | ★☆☆ | F03099436 Z0021022 | | 碳酸锂 | ななな | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | 工业硅 | ななな | F03111330 Z0018905 | | 多晶硅 | な女女 | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【铜】 周五沪铜高位震荡，增仓测试8万关口。今日现铜上调到80125吨，上海铜升水扩至110元。海外投行再次强调对 铜征收高额进口关税，美盘高位涨幅走扩，LMEO-3月现货升水走高到300美元以上。临近7月市场关注 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: Despite concerns about demand uncertainty due to macro and geopolitical factors, the strong reality of copper is increasingly strengthening. There is a potential pattern of buying on dips. In the short - term, it is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the absence of effective resonance between macro and micro factors, with a focus on the 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton range [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina shows a tendency of fluctuating upward. The electrolytic aluminum market is in a game between weakening marginal demand and low ingot - casting volume and low - warehouse - receipt squeezing effects. For waste aluminum, there is still cost support, and continuous attention should be paid to the opportunity of rolling to do long on the AD - AL spread [1][2]. - Nickel: In the short - term, the firm raw material prices provide support, but the market lacks confidence. Mid - term demand may still restrict the fundamentals to be bearish. Attention should be paid to the premium of nickel ore and the inventory of primary nickel, as well as the changes in overseas policies [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper rose 0.65% to $9,727/ton, and SHFE copper rose 0.36% to 78,720 yuan/ton. The import of refined copper and scrap copper in China decreased, and the export window opened. The LME inventory dropped to below 100,000 tons, and the market was worried about extreme market conditions [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina fluctuated strongly, with AO2509 closing at 2,937 yuan/ton, up 1.07%. The spot price of alumina declined. The electrolytic aluminum market faced a game between demand and supply - side factors [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel rose 1.14% to $15,075/ton, and SHFE nickel rose 1.19% to 119,490 yuan/ton. The stainless - steel market was in an oversupply state, and the supply and demand of nickel sulfate were both weak [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper increased, and the price of waste copper also rose. The LME inventory decreased by 1,200 tons, and the SHFE warehouse receipt decreased by 955 tons [1][3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead increased by 180 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate price rose, and the LME inventory decreased by 2,125 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: The price of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai changed slightly. The LME inventory decreased by 2,000 tons, and the SHFE warehouse receipt decreased by 1,620 tons [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased. The LME inventory increased by 432 tons, and the SHFE nickel warehouse receipt decreased by 222 tons [2][4]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price rose slightly. The LME inventory decreased by 575 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 0.26 tons [5]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price decreased by 0.4%. The LME inventory decreased by 25 tons, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 142 tons [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: The document shows the spot premium trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][12]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: It presents the near - far month spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][22][23]. - **LME Inventory**: The LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 are demonstrated [24][26][28]. - **SHFE Inventory**: The SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 are shown [31][33][35]. - **Social Inventory**: It includes the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [37][39][41]. - **Smelting Profit**: The document shows the trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [43][45][47]. 3.4有色金属团队介绍 - **展大鹏**: A master of science, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher of precious metals, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial product futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. He has more than ten years of commodity research experience [50]. - **王珩**: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon [50]. - **朱希**: A master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel [51].