1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The overall sentiment in the commodity market is bullish, but the black - series is still in a bottom - range oscillation phase and is sensitive to marginal news. Traders need to be vigilant against rumor disturbances and strengthen information screening. In the short term, the macro - level is in a policy window period, and attention should be paid to the "dual - carbon" policy and its impact on the steel industry's supply - demand pattern [3]. - The bullish sentiment in the commodity market may continue, but there is a risk of short - term shocks and high volatility from previous "sentiment leaders" such as silver, platinum, and lithium carbonate. For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the future market will be influenced by the direction of the black sector and cost - push and supply - contraction factors [10][11]. - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, the demand side is weak, and the supply - demand situation is loose with inventory accumulation pressure. The price increase in the industrial chain has an emotional support for raw material prices, and the market should pay attention to terminal demand feedback and trading liquidity [14][16]. - For glass and soda ash, glass prices are rising due to cost support and supply contraction expectations, but the demand is weak in the off - season, and the price increase space is limited. Soda ash is strongly affected by market sentiment, and the market is in a game between weak fundamentals and external positive factors, with high volatility [19][22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3187 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan/ton (2.442%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 56,844 tons, unchanged from the previous day. The main contract's open interest was 1.7414 million lots, up 178,435 lots. The spot rebar price in Tianjin was 3180 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it was 3320 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [2]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3332 yuan/ton, up 69 yuan/ton (2.114%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 103,995 tons, down 593 tons. The main contract's open interest was 1.3779 million lots, up 103,802 lots. The spot hot - rolled coil price in Lecong was 3300 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it was 3300 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [2]. Strategy View - The price of finished products has risen significantly driven by the strong raw material prices. The supply - demand contradiction of hot - rolled coils has been marginally alleviated, while the rebar inventory continues to decline. The winter storage participation is still cautious, and it is difficult to form a concentrated replenishment market. The black - series is in a bottom - range oscillation and is sensitive to news [3]. Iron Ore Market Quotes - The main iron ore contract (I2605) closed at 828.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +3.37% (+27.00), and the open interest increased by 25,713 lots to 666,600 lots. The weighted open interest was 999,700 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 832 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 56.85 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 6.42% [4]. Strategy View - The price of iron ore continued to rise. The overseas iron ore shipments decreased, and the near - end arrivals increased. The daily hot - metal output rebounded slightly, and the steel mills' profitability improved. The port inventory continued to accumulate, and the steel mills' imported ore inventory was still at a low level in the same period of the past five years, with some replenishment demand [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - On January 7, the main manganese silicon contract (SM603) rose 1.39% to close at 6000 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, with a basis of 60 yuan/ton. The main ferrosilicon contract (SF603) rose 1.45% to close at 5860 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5950 yuan/ton, with a basis of 90 yuan/ton [8]. Strategy View - The market's bullish sentiment may continue, but there is a risk of short - term shocks. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is still loose, and that of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. The future market will be affected by the black sector's direction and cost - push and supply - contraction factors. Attention should be paid to the manganese ore supply and "dual - carbon" policy [10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Quotes - The main industrial silicon contract (SI2605) closed at 8980 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.90% (+80). The weighted contract's open interest increased by 18,796 lots to 379,966 lots. The spot price of non - oxygen - permeable 553 industrial silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 220 yuan/ton; the price of 421 was 9650 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of - 130 yuan/ton [13]. - The main polysilicon contract (PS2605) closed at 58,300 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1.79% (- 1065). The weighted contract's open interest decreased by 8838 lots to 116,672 lots. The average spot price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type dense material was 52.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 53.5 yuan/kg, unchanged, with a basis of - 4800 yuan/ton [15]. Strategy View - The price of industrial silicon is affected by market sentiment, but its own supply - demand is weak, and inventory accumulation may continue. The demand for polysilicon is weak, and the supply - demand is loose with inventory accumulation pressure. The price increase in the industrial chain has an emotional support for raw material prices, and attention should be paid to terminal demand and trading liquidity [14][16]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Quotes - The glass main contract closed at 1148 yuan/ton on Wednesday, up 5.13% (+56). The price of large - size glass in North China was 1010 yuan, up 10 yuan from the previous day; in Central China, it was 1060 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 56.866 million cases, down 1.757 million cases (- 3.00%). The top 20 long - position holders increased 566 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 633 lots [18]. - The soda ash main contract closed at 1271 yuan/ton on Wednesday, up 6.81% (+81). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1231 yuan, up 81 yuan from the previous day. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.4083 million tons, down 30,200 tons (- 3.00%), including 676,100 tons of heavy soda ash, down 26,900 tons, and 732,200 tons of light soda ash, down 3300 tons. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 7939 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 32,712 lots [20]. Strategy View - Glass prices are rising due to cost support and supply contraction expectations, but the demand is weak in the off - season, and the price increase space is limited. Soda ash is strongly affected by market sentiment, and the market is in a game between weak fundamentals and external positive factors, with high volatility [19][22].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The medium - term outlook for the industry is "Oscillation" [6] Core Viewpoints - The central bank's meeting emphasizes promoting high - quality economic development and a reasonable rise in prices, keeping the macro sentiment positive. The supply of coking coal is tightening, driving up the prices of coking coal and coke. With the expected resumption of hot metal production and pre - festival restocking, iron ore prices remain strong. Although the fundamentals of steel in the off - season are lackluster, strong cost support keeps the futures prices strong. The price increase of glass and soda ash stimulates mid - stream restocking, but fundamental contradictions still exist [1][2]. - In general, the off - season fundamentals have few bright spots. Before the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the downstream restocking intensity. The resumption of production by steel enterprises in January is expected to boost the restocking expectation further, and the prices of furnace materials are expected to rise from the low level, but the upside is limited by steel mills' profits [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Iron ore: Port inventories are continuously accumulating, and there are expectations of supply disruptions. The resumption of hot metal production and pre - festival restocking on the demand side support the ore price. In reality, both supply and demand need to be verified. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [2][8]. - Scrap steel: The supply and demand of scrap steel are both weak. Steel mills' inventories are high, and restocking has slowed down. The spot price of scrap steel lacks the momentum to rise, but the good profits of electric furnaces support the demand. Overall, the fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the price is expected to oscillate [2][9]. Carbon Element - Coke: The cost side of coke has shown signs of stabilization, and the expectation of steel mills' resumption of production still exists. As mid - and downstream winter restocking gradually begins, the supply - demand structure of coke may gradually tighten. The sharp rise in the futures market may drive spot - futures and speculative demand to enter the market for procurement. The room for further price cuts in the spot market is limited, and the futures price is expected to follow that of coking coal [2][11]. - Coking coal: As the Chinese New Year approaches, the intensity of winter restocking is increasing, and the impulse behavior of Mongolian coal imports has improved. The overall supply pressure will be relieved, the fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and the futures and spot prices still have upward momentum [2][12]. Alloys - Manganese silicon: The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon remains loose, and the upstream has great pressure to destock. When the futures price rises to a high level, it will face selling hedging pressure. In the medium term, the futures price is expected to gradually fall back to near the cost valuation. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up [3][17]. - Ferrosilicon: Currently, the supply pressure of ferrosilicon is not large. The strong rebound of the black chain and the expected increase in electricity costs in Shaanxi support the futures price to maintain a high level in the short term. However, if the spot price rises significantly due to the influence of the futures, the resumption of production by manufacturers may accelerate after profit repair, and the upstream supply pressure may reappear. Caution should be exercised regarding the upside space of the futures price [3][19]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: There are still expectations of supply disruptions, but the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. Fundamentally, the current supply exceeds demand. If there is no more cold repair by the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [3][6][13]. - Soda ash: The overall supply exceeds demand. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the pattern of oversupply will intensify further, the price center will continue to decline, and capacity reduction will be promoted [3][6][16]. Other Information - Steel: The cost and sentiment provide support, and the futures price is strong. The spot market transactions have improved, and the profitability of steel mills has improved. However, in the off - season, the demand is facing downward pressure, and the inventory removal speed has slowed down. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate widely at a low level, and attention should be paid to the pre - festival restocking rhythm [8]. - Commodity Index: On January 7, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities rose. The special index, including the Commodity Index, Commodity 20 Index, and Industrial Products Index, also increased. The steel industry chain index had significant gains, with a daily increase of 3.33%, a 5 - day increase of 2.82%, a 1 - month increase of 4.79%, and a year - to - date increase of 3.21% [106][107].

Core Viewpoint - The significant rise in glass and soda ash futures prices is primarily driven by improved policy expectations and a recovery in market sentiment, with main contracts seeing increases of nearly 8% [1][2]. Macro Factors - The recent Central Bank meeting indicated a commitment to maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy, which is expected to support economic stability and boost market sentiment for commodities [3]. - The emphasis on counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, along with maintaining ample liquidity, is seen as a foundation for improving macro expectations [3]. Industry Factors - The ongoing "anti-involution" policies are leading to structural adjustments in the glass and soda ash industries, with initiatives like differentiated electricity pricing aimed at phasing out outdated capacities [3]. - Specific regional efforts, such as the transition to cleaner energy in glass production, are expected to further support price rebounds [3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Recent improvements in production and sales in key regions are contributing to a favorable supply-demand balance for glass, with expectations of entering a destocking phase [4]. - However, the soda ash industry still faces significant supply pressure, with ongoing capacity expansions projected to add 410 million tons in 2025 and 430 million tons in 2026, while demand remains weak [5]. - The float glass market is experiencing a dual weakness in supply and demand, with recent production declines and a slow recovery in the real estate market expected to lead to continued demand decreases [5][6]. Market Outlook - Industry experts suggest that both glass and soda ash sectors are at the bottom of their cycles, with limited rebound potential and increased short-term market volatility anticipated [7]. - Policy expectations are expected to dominate price trends, with fundamental factors unlikely to support sustained price increases [8]. - The long-term oversupply situation in soda ash is not expected to change quickly, while glass prices may see upward movement later in the year if supply-side adjustments are realized [8].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net sales increased by 2.1% to $348.6 million, driven by $18.4 million in inorganic sales from the acquisition of UW Solutions and favorable product mix, partially offset by lower volume, primarily in metals [10] - Adjusted EBITDA margin decreased slightly to 13.2%, primarily due to lower volume and price, as well as higher aluminum and health insurance costs [10] - Adjusted diluted EPS was $1.02, down year-over-year, primarily due to higher amortization and interest expense from the UW Solutions acquisition [11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Metals segment net sales declined due to lower volume, but adjusted EBITDA margin improved to 13.5% driven by increased productivity and cost savings from Fortify Phase 2 [11] - Services segment achieved its seventh consecutive quarter of year-over-year net sales growth, with adjusted EBITDA margin increasing to 9.7% due to lower incentive compensation expense [11] - Glass segment net sales increased slightly to approximately $71 million, driven by increased volume and favorable mix, but adjusted EBITDA margin moderated due to lower price and higher material costs [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Average aluminum prices rose approximately 13% compared to the second quarter and over 50% compared to the third quarter of last year, impacting volume and margin compression in the Metals segment [15] - Backlog for services ended the quarter at $775 million, down slightly from Q2 but up over 4% compared to Q3 of last year [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company remains focused on becoming the economic leader in target markets, managing its portfolio, and pursuing accretive M&A opportunities, with no change in strategic direction [19] - The UW Solutions acquisition is expected to contribute to market and geographical expansion, with fiscal 2026 expectations of $100 million in net sales and approximately 20% adjusted EBITDA margin [7] - The company aims to strengthen its core by driving more efficient operations and enabling sustained profitable growth [8] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges challenging macroeconomic factors but believes the company is well-positioned due to operational excellence and a strong balance sheet [8] - The company anticipates continued pressure on pricing and volume in both Metals and Glass segments, with expectations of cost headwinds from normalization of incentive compensation and higher health insurance costs [15] - Management is taking proactive measures, including expanding Project Fortify Phase 2, to manage near-term headwinds and position for growth opportunities [16] Other Important Information - The company reported net cash provided by operating activities of $29.3 million for Q3, down from $31 million in the prior year [12] - The balance sheet remains strong with a consolidated leverage ratio of 1.4x and significant capital available for future deployment [13] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the board looking for in new leadership? - The company is looking for someone with deep growth and operational excellence experience, particularly in M&A integration [20] Question: Is the updated outlook primarily impacted by aluminum inflation? - Yes, both Metals and Glass segments are experiencing pressure from rising aluminum prices, impacting margins [27] Question: What is the focus on M&A activity going forward? - The company has a robust M&A pipeline and is actively pursuing opportunities, with the UW Solutions acquisition being a successful example [36] Question: How is the company managing pricing discipline in a competitive market? - The company is focused on maximizing EBITDA dollar contribution while protecting premium margins, despite challenges in volume and price [44] Question: What are the near-term priorities for growth? - The company is focused on delivering results, expanding Project Fortify Phase 2, and leveraging the Apogee Management System for cost structure improvements [64][66]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net sales increased by 2.1% to $348.6 million, driven by $18.4 million in inorganic sales from the acquisition of UW Solutions and favorable product mix, partially offset by lower volume in metals [10] - Adjusted EBITDA margin decreased slightly to 13.2%, primarily due to lower volume and price, as well as higher aluminum and health insurance costs [10] - Adjusted diluted EPS was $1.02, down year-over-year, mainly due to higher amortization and interest expense from the UW Solutions acquisition [11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Metals segment net sales declined due to lower volume, but adjusted EBITDA margin improved to 13.5% driven by increased productivity and cost savings from Fortify Phase Two [11] - Services segment achieved its seventh consecutive quarter of year-over-year net sales growth, with adjusted EBITDA margin increasing to 9.7% due to lower incentive compensation expense [11] - Glass segment net sales increased slightly to approximately $71 million, driven by increased volume and favorable mix, though adjusted EBITDA margin moderated due to lower price and higher material costs [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Average aluminum prices rose approximately 13% from Q2 to Q3 and are up over 50% compared to the same quarter last year, impacting volume and margin [15] - Backlog for services ended the quarter at $775 million, down slightly from Q2 but up over 4% compared to Q3 of last year [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to become the economic leader in target markets, manage its portfolio through creative M&A opportunities, and strengthen core operations for sustained profitable growth [8][19] - The acquisition of UW Solutions is expected to expand market reach and provide a platform for growth in fiscal 2027 and beyond [7] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges challenging macroeconomic factors but believes the company is well-positioned due to operational excellence, cost-out execution, and a strong balance sheet [8] - The company expects continued pressure from competitive market dynamics in both Metals and Glass segments, with margin compression anticipated to persist into fiscal 2027 [15] Other Important Information - The company is expanding the scope of Project Fortify Phase Two to include further restructuring actions, primarily in Metals and corporate, with expected pre-tax charges of approximately $28-$29 million and annual pre-tax cost savings of $25-$26 million [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the board looking for in new leadership and any changes in strategic direction? - No change in strategy; focus remains on becoming the economic leader, managing the portfolio, and pursuing accretive M&A opportunities [19] Question: How is the company addressing the impact of rising aluminum prices? - Rising aluminum prices are impacting margins, and the company is focused on managing costs and implementing strategies to control expenses [27] Question: What is the company's approach to M&A activity moving forward? - The M&A pipeline is robust, with successful integration of UW Solutions and ongoing efforts to identify strategic acquisitions [36] Question: How does the company view its growth trajectory and ROIC metrics? - The strategy remains unchanged, with a focus on becoming the economic leader and managing the portfolio for growth opportunities [61] Question: What are the near-term priorities for the company? - Delivering results and focusing on Project Fortify Phase Two and the Apogee Management System to drive cost structure improvements [63][64]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net sales increased by 2.1% to $348.6 million, driven by $18.4 million in inorganic sales from the acquisition of UW Solutions and favorable product mix, partially offset by lower volume primarily in metals [10] - Adjusted EBITDA margin decreased slightly to 13.2%, impacted by lower volume and price, as well as higher aluminum and health insurance costs [10] - Adjusted diluted EPS was $1.02, down year-over-year due to higher amortization and interest expense from the UW Solutions acquisition [11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Metals segment net sales declined due to lower volume, but adjusted EBITDA margin improved to 13.5% driven by increased productivity and cost savings from Fortify Phase Two [11] - Services segment achieved its seventh consecutive quarter of year-over-year net sales growth, with adjusted EBITDA margin increasing to 9.7% due to lower incentive compensation expense [11] - Glass segment net sales increased slightly to approximately $71 million, driven by increased volume and favorable mix, though adjusted EBITDA margin moderated due to lower price and higher material costs [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Average aluminum prices rose approximately 13% from Q2 to Q3 and are up over 50% compared to the same quarter last year, impacting volume and margin [14] - Backlog for services ended the quarter at $775 million, down slightly from Q2 but up over 4% compared to Q3 of last year [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to become the economic leader in target markets with differentiated offerings and competitive cost structures, while also managing its portfolio through creative M&A opportunities [8] - The acquisition of UW Solutions is expected to contribute to market and geographical expansion, with fiscal 2026 expectations of $100 million in net sales and approximately 20% adjusted EBITDA margin [6] - The company is focused on operational excellence through the Apogee Management System (AMS) to drive productivity improvements and cost savings [7] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges challenging macroeconomic factors but believes the company is well-positioned due to operational excellence, cost-out execution, and a strong balance sheet [7] - The outlook for fiscal 2026 has been updated to expect net sales of approximately $1.39 billion and adjusted diluted EPS in the range of $3.40-$3.50, factoring in tariff impacts and cost headwinds [13] - Management anticipates continued margin pressure in the Metals and Glass segments due to competitive market dynamics and rising aluminum prices [14] Other Important Information - The company is expanding the scope of Project Fortify Phase Two to include further restructuring actions, primarily in Metals and corporate, to manage near-term headwinds [15] - The balance sheet remains strong with a consolidated leverage ratio of 1.4 times and no near-term debt maturities [13] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the board looking for in new leadership? - The company is seeking someone with deep growth and operational excellence experience, particularly in M&A integration, with no change in strategic direction [18][19] Question: How is the updated outlook impacted by aluminum prices? - The primary issue is the continued increase in aluminum prices, which has led to margin pressures in both Metals and Glass segments [20][25] Question: What is the company's stance on M&A activity? - The M&A pipeline is robust, with successful integration of UW Solutions and ongoing efforts to identify new opportunities for growth [32][34] Question: How does the company view pricing discipline in the current market? - The company is focused on maximizing EBITDA dollar contribution while managing costs and maintaining pricing discipline in a competitive environment [40][41] Question: What are the near-term priorities for the company? - Key priorities include delivering results for the current year, expanding Project Fortify, and leveraging AMS for cost structure improvements [59][60]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views - The market sentiment has improved, and steel prices are oscillating. Glass and soda ash are showing an oscillatory upward trend due to stable downstream consumption. Silicon ferroalloys (silicon manganese and silicon iron) are also experiencing price fluctuations influenced by various factors such as electricity costs, supply - demand relationships, and steel procurement [1][3]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: The glass futures market oscillated upward yesterday, while the spot market's transaction center shifted downward, with downstream buyers purchasing on - demand. The soda ash futures market also oscillated upward, but downstream buyers showed strong wait - and - see sentiment and made purchases based on rigid demand [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For glass, the supply - demand contradiction is still significant. Although some production lines are gradually cold - repairing, the production reduction is insufficient compared to the decline in rigid demand. There is a large inventory pressure, and there is a possibility of significant inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival. The market has expectations for the post - Spring Festival peak season. For soda ash, the supply - demand contradiction is relatively limited. Supply has decreased, and demand has weakened, leading to a month - on - month increase in inventory. With new soda ash projects planned for commissioning and the possibility of increased cold - repair of float glass production lines, it is necessary to control the production profit of soda ash enterprises [1]. - **Strategy**: Glass is expected to oscillate, and soda ash is also expected to oscillate. There are no cross - period or cross - variety strategies [2]. Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron - **Market Analysis**: The manganese silicon futures market rose slightly yesterday, with the overall sentiment improving. The market is oscillating, and market participants are waiting for the new round of steel procurement. The 6517 manganese silicon is priced at 5570 - 5670 yuan/ton in the northern market and 5650 - 5700 yuan/ton in the southern market. The silicon iron futures market rose significantly due to the implementation of differential electricity prices in Shaanxi. Traders are actively purchasing during the January steel procurement, and the overall sales are good. The 72 - grade silicon iron natural lump is priced at 5250 - 5350 yuan/ton, and the 75 - grade silicon iron is priced at 5600 - 5700 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The fundamentals of manganese silicon are not good, with production still higher than demand and a significant increase in inventory. Although the resumption of steel mills after New Year's Day will help repair the rigid demand for manganese silicon, the high inventory pressure restricts price increases. The low inventory of manganese ore at ports provides price support. For silicon iron, the supply - demand contradiction has been significantly alleviated. Enterprises have actively reduced production, leading to a significant decrease in factory inventory. After the resumption of steel mills, the rigid demand for silicon iron is expected to improve. The planned implementation of differential electricity prices in Shaanxi will increase the production cost of silicon iron enterprises, and the futures market is in a loss state [3]. - **Strategy**: Manganese silicon is expected to oscillate, and silicon iron is expected to oscillate with an upward bias [4].

黑色建材日报 2026-01-07 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3111 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 7 元/吨（0.225%）。当日注册仓单 56844 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 156.29 万手，环比增加 14597 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总价 格为 3150 元/吨, 环比减少 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3280 元/吨, 环比减少 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合约 收盘价为 3263 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 15 元/吨（0.461%）。 当日注册仓单 104588 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。 主力合约持仓量为 127 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Urea - On January 6, urea futures closed higher, and the spot market rose slightly. The overall trading atmosphere improved, but the short - term high - supply situation was difficult to change, and the downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs. The urea price was expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm of subsequent devices and the progress of downstream industrial and agricultural demand [1]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda futures fluctuated strongly on Tuesday, and the spot market was relatively stable. The supply - demand pattern of the caustic soda market was expected to be stable and weak, and attention should be paid to the procurement volume of the main downstream and the price fluctuation of liquid chlorine. PVC prices rose rapidly on January 6, but the supply - demand contradiction increased, and the price was expected to fluctuate weakly [2]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The overall supply of domestic petroleum benzene was stable, but the port inventory was high. The overall supply - demand pattern of pure benzene was weak, and the price was expected to fluctuate at a low level. The short - term supply - demand of styrene was in a tight balance, but the rebound space was limited [3]. Natural Rubber - The supply of natural rubber faced increased pressure from overseas production areas, but the cost support strengthened. The downstream replenishment was cautious, and the inventory in Qingdao increased significantly. The rubber price was driven up by market sentiment, and attention should be paid to the raw material situation in Thailand [4]. Crude Oil - On Tuesday, oil prices rose first and then fell. The short - term price of Brent crude oil was expected to fluctuate between $60 - 65 per barrel, and attention should be paid to geopolitical conflicts [6][7]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash prices rebounded, but the supply - demand situation was still under pressure, and the price rebound space was limited. Glass prices rebounded at night, but the demand was expected to weaken, and attention should be paid to the inventory digestion of the middle - stream [9]. LPG - LPG prices rose, and the inventory decreased slightly. The short - term market was affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts and inventory changes [11]. Methanol - Methanol prices continued to rise. The inland market was in a situation of weak supply and demand, while the port inventory was expected to enter the destocking cycle in the first quarter, and the market was expected to maintain a strong - fluctuating pattern [13][15]. Polyester Industry Chain - The supply of PX and PTA was expected to be high in January, but the demand was weak. The prices of PX and PTA were expected to fluctuate and adjust before the Spring Festival. The supply - demand of MEG was expected to accumulate inventory, and the price was under pressure. The supply - demand of short - fiber and bottle - chip was weak, and the prices were expected to follow the raw materials [18]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Urea - **Futures Prices**: On January 6, the 01 contract was 1694 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; the 05 contract was 1768 yuan/ton, up 0.57%; the 09 contract was 1730 yuan/ton, up 0.87%; the main contract was 2293 yuan/ton [1]. - **Futures Contract Spreads**: The spread between the 01 and 05 contracts was - 84 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the spread between the 05 and 09 contracts was 33 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the spread between the 09 and 01 contracts was 48 yuan/ton, up 6.25% [1]. - **Main Positions**: The long positions of the top 20 decreased by 0.25%, and the short positions of the top 20 decreased by 0.36% [1]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The prices of most upstream raw materials were stable, and the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong increased by 0.61% [1]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of small - particle urea in most regions rose slightly, and the FOB prices in China and the US Gulf were stable [1]. - **Supply - Demand**: The daily production of urea increased to 204,000 tons, the weekly production decreased by 0.49%, the plant - level inventory decreased by 4.65%, and the port inventory decreased by 0.50% [1]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **PVC Prices and Spreads**: On January 6, the market price of PVC in East China increased, the prices of futures contracts V2601 and V2605 rose by 3.3%, and the basis and spreads changed [2]. - **Caustic Soda Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The overseas quotes of caustic soda decreased, and the export profit decreased [2]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: The operating rate of the caustic soda industry was stable, the demand of downstream industries was weak, and the inventory of caustic soda and PVC changed [2]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil decreased, the price of CFR China pure benzene increased by 0.3%, and the spreads between pure benzene and related products changed [3]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of styrene in East China increased by 0.7%, and the spreads and basis of styrene futures changed [3]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports increased by 6.0%, and the inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports decreased by 4.7%. The operating rates of some industries in the pure benzene and styrene industry chain changed [3]. Natural Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On January 6, the price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex increased by 0.64%, and the basis and spreads changed [4]. - **Production and Operating Rates**: In November, the production of natural rubber in Thailand, Indonesia, etc. changed, and the operating rates of tire - related industries changed [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: The bonded - area inventory of natural rubber increased by 4.48%, and the inventory in Qingdao showed different changes in inbound and outbound rates [4]. Crude Oil - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: On January 6, the price of Brent crude oil decreased by 1.72%, the price of WTI crude oil decreased by 2.04%, and the spreads between different crude oil varieties and contracts changed [6][7]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil decreased, and the spreads between different refined oil contracts changed [6][7]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass Prices and Spreads**: The prices of glass in different regions were stable, and the prices of glass futures contracts changed slightly [9]. - **Soda Ash Prices and Spreads**: The prices of soda ash in different regions were stable, and the prices of soda ash futures contracts increased [9]. - **Supply and Inventory**: The operating rate and weekly production of soda ash decreased, the inventory of soda ash increased significantly, and the demand of downstream industries decreased [9]. LPG - **LPG Prices and Spreads**: On January 6, the prices of LPG futures contracts increased, and the spreads and basis changed [11]. - **LPG Inventory and Operating Rates**: The LPG refinery storage - capacity ratio increased slightly, the port inventory decreased by 8.41%, and the operating rates of upstream and downstream industries changed [11]. Methanol - **Methanol Prices and Spreads**: The prices of methanol futures contracts increased, and the spreads and basis changed [13]. - **Methanol Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventory of methanol enterprises and ports increased, and the operating rates of upstream and downstream industries changed [13][14][15]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: The prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil decreased slightly, and the prices of PX - related products increased [18]. - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: The prices of polyester products such as POY, FDY, etc. changed slightly, and the cash flows and processing fees of polyester products changed [18]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventory of MEG ports decreased slightly, and the operating rates of different industries in the polyester industry chain changed [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "oscillation", with some varieties having specific ratings such as "oscillation", "oscillation - biased upward", and "oscillation - biased downward" [5] Core Viewpoints - The central bank's emphasis on promoting high - quality economic development and reasonable price recovery has led to a warm macro - sentiment. There are still expectations of hot metal复产 and pre - holiday restocking, with iron ore prices remaining strong and coal and coke prices recovering from lows. The fundamentals of steel in the off - season have limited highlights, but cost support is strong, and the futures prices have rebounded from lows. The glass and soda ash futures follow the sector and perform strongly [1] - In the off - season, the fundamentals have limited highlights. Before the Spring Festival, continue to focus on the downstream restocking intensity. In January, the resumption of production by steel enterprises is expected to further boost the restocking expectation, and furnace material prices still have the potential to rise from lows, but the upside space is restricted by steel mill profits [5] Summary by Category Iron Element - Iron ore: The port inventory is continuously accumulating, and steel mills' restocking is slow. There is an expectation of blast furnace复产 in January. The复产 of hot metal and pre - holiday restocking support the ore price, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [1] - Scrap steel: The supply and demand of scrap steel are both weak. Steel mills' inventory is relatively high, and restocking has slowed down. The spot price of scrap steel lacks upward momentum, but the profit of electric furnaces is acceptable, which supports demand. The overall fundamental contradiction is not prominent, and the price is expected to oscillate [1] Carbon Element - Coke: The cost side of coke has shown signs of stabilization, and the expectation of steel mill复产 still exists. As mid - and downstream winter restocking gradually begins, the coke supply - demand structure may gradually tighten. The space for further spot price cuts is limited, and the futures are expected to oscillate following coking coal [2] - Coking coal: As the year approaches, the intensity of winter restocking gradually increases, and the impulse behavior of Mongolian coal imports has improved. The overall supply pressure will be relieved, the fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and there is still upward momentum in futures and spot prices [2] Alloys - Manganese silicon: The pattern of loose supply and demand for manganese silicon continues, and the upstream has great pressure to destock. When the futures price rises to a high level, it will face selling hedging pressure. In the medium term, the futures price may gradually fall back to the cost valuation [3] - Ferrosilicon: Currently, the upstream supply pressure of ferrosilicon has been relieved, and the market's bullish sentiment has increased. The short - term futures price is expected to remain high. However, if the spot price is significantly adjusted upwards due to the influence of futures, the resumption of production by manufacturers may accelerate after profit repair, and the upstream supply pressure may reappear [3] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the inventory of mid - and downstream is moderately high. Fundamentally, the current supply and demand are still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [2][4] - Soda ash: The overall supply and demand of soda ash are still in surplus, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the pattern of supply surplus will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction [2] Specific Varieties - Steel: The cost is strong, and the futures price has rebounded from lows. In the off - season, supply and demand are both weak. Although the fundamentals of rebar still have resilience and the inventory pressure of hot - rolled coils still exists, with the resumption of production by steel mills and winter restocking, cost support is strong, and the futures price is expected to oscillate widely at a low level [7][8] - Iron ore: The market sentiment is strong, and the futures and spot prices are rising. The supply side has expectations of disturbances, and the demand side has an expectation of blast furnace复产 in January. The port inventory is accumulating, and steel mills' restocking is slow. The ore price is expected to oscillate in the short term [8] - Scrap steel: Steel mills' arrivals are at a low level, and the price oscillates. The supply and demand are both weak, and the fundamentals have no prominent contradictions, so the price is expected to oscillate [10] - Coke: The fundamentals have limited changes, and the futures price first weakens and then strengthens. The cost side has stabilized, and the futures are expected to oscillate following coking coal [12][13] - Coking coal: The online auctions show mixed results, and the night - session futures of commodities generally rise. As the year approaches, the fundamentals will continue to improve marginally, and there is upward momentum in prices [14] - Glass: The commodity sentiment has recovered, and the valuation premium has rebounded. The supply has expectations of disturbances, and the inventory is moderately high. If there is no more cold repair, the price is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, it will rise [15] - Soda ash: The fundamentals have limited changes, and the sentiment drives the valuation to repair. The supply and demand are in surplus, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term and the price center will decline in the long run [17] - Manganese silicon: The upstream supply pressure remains high, and attention should be paid to the guidance of steel tender prices. The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the futures price may fall back to the cost valuation in the medium term [18] - Ferrosilicon: The electricity cost in Shaanxi is increasing, and the market's bullish sentiment is rising. The upstream supply pressure has been relieved, but attention should be paid to the potential resurgence of supply pressure [20]