黑色建材日报 2025-10-22 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3047 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 2 元/吨（0.065%）。当日注册仓单 129796 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 199.5833 万手，环比减少 10093 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总 价格为 3110 元/吨, 环比减少 0/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3200 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合约 收盘价为 3219 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 4 元/吨（0.124%）。 当日注册仓单 113657 吨, 环比减少 2375 吨。 主力合约持仓量为 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，9月水泥产量1.54亿吨，同比-8.6%(8月同比-6.2%)，跌幅略有扩 大。后续建议关注行业协同提价力度以及供给侧反内卷背景下水泥企业限制超产政策落地执行进展。钢 铁方面，9月粗钢产量7349万吨，同比-4.6%，国内粗钢表观消费量6452万吨，同比-4.4%，供需同比降 幅均走阔。近期行业供需趋弱，炉料价格受供给扰动侵蚀利润，导致钢材价格及利润收缩，但反内卷下 行业供需长期改善趋势未变。 中金主要观点如下： 水泥：9月产量同比跌幅略扩大，小旺季价格环比略有提振 9月水泥产量1.54亿吨，同比-8.6%(8月同比-6.2%)，跌幅略有扩大。根据中金建筑组统计，9月广义基建 投资同比-8.4%，其中水利、环境和公共设施管理业细分项同比-15%，基建表现疲软，水泥需求偏弱。 在7-8月淡季企业盈利持续承压背景下，不同地区错峰停产、协同提价，效果一般：9月全国水泥均价环 比+3元至342元/吨，低于去年同期375元/吨；测算9月行业吨毛利同比-18元/吨左右。后续建议关注行业 协同提价力度以及供给侧反内卷背景下水泥企业限制超产政策落地执行进展。 标的上，建议关注海螺水泥(00 ...

据卓创资讯，截至2025年10月17日，国内浮法玻璃均价1276元/吨，环比-2.1%，同比去年+1.5%。库存 天数29.09天，较9月30日增加4.29天。2.0mm镀膜面板主流订单价格13元/平方米左右，环比持平，较上 周暂无变动，样本库存天数约18.87天，环比增加25.64%。当前玻璃龙头估值偏低，看好旗滨集团、山 东药玻、福莱特(A)、福莱特玻璃(H)、信义玻璃、信义光能，关注金晶科技、力诺特玻。 智通财经APP获悉，广发证券发布研报称，二手房高景气叠加补贴政策，零售建材景气率先恢复，龙头 公司经营韧性强。消费建材长期需求稳定性好、行业集中度持续提升、竞争格局好的优质龙头中长期成 长空间仍然很大。下游地产仍在寻底，等待销售企稳好转;核心龙头公司经营韧性强。 广发证券主要观点如下： 水泥：本周全国水泥市场价格环比继续回落0.7% 据数字水泥网，截至2025年10月17日，全国水泥均价347元/吨，环比-2.33元/吨，同比-61.83元/吨;全国 水泥出货率45.20%，环比+0.67pct，同比-10.00pct。随着部分区域水泥价格持续回调至底部区间，预计 后期水泥价格仍将维持小幅震荡调整走势。 ...

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The market trading volume is weak, and steel prices are fluctuating downward. Glass and soda ash are facing supply - demand contradictions and are showing a weak downward trend. Silicon manganese and silicon iron prices are expected to fluctuate, with silicon manganese enterprises facing increased losses and silicon iron enterprises having low production - increasing motivation [1][3]. Market Analysis Summary Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Futures fluctuated weakly with active trading yesterday. Spot market's downstream purchasing sentiment was cautious, and the trading center shifted down. Supply is on a low - rising trend, middle - stream trade inventory is high, speculative demand is weakening, and destocking pressure is increasing. With the end of the consumption peak season approaching and the possibility of some production lines resuming, demand is expected to further weaken [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Futures fluctuated with active trading yesterday. Spot market trading was average, downstream purchasing sentiment was cautious, and low - price just - in - time demand transactions were the main type. Supply - demand contradictions remain, supply is at a high level with growth expectations, demand shows resilience, and destocking pressure persists throughout the year [1]. Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron - **Silicon Manganese**: Futures rose in a fluctuating manner yesterday. Spot market performed okay, with strong market waiting sentiment at the beginning of the week. Northern market price was 5630 - 5680 yuan/ton, and southern market price was 5650 - 5700 yuan/ton. Enterprises' losses are intensifying, production is high, demand has weakened with the decline of hot metal, and prices are expected to fluctuate and follow the sector [3]. - **Silicon Iron**: Futures fluctuated yesterday. Spot prices were stable. Ningxia 72 - grade silicon iron natural block was 5150 - 5200 yuan/ton, 72 - grade silicon iron standard block was 5250 - 5300 yuan/ton, and 75 - grade silicon iron was 5800 yuan/ton. Enterprises' production has slightly decreased, losses continue, production - increasing motivation is insufficient, downstream demand is weakening, and prices are expected to follow the sector [3]. Strategy Summary - **Glass**: Fluctuate weakly [2] - **Soda Ash**: Fluctuate weakly [2] - **Silicon Manganese**: Fluctuate [4] - **Silicon Iron**: Fluctuate [4]

Report Information - Report Name: Soda Ash, Glass Daily Report [1] - Date: October 21, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The soda ash market has a weak supply - demand pattern with supply affected by equipment maintenance, downstream low - price restocking, and insufficient fundamental drivers. The market supply - demand imbalance persists. The contract shows signs of bottom - building and is expected to oscillate weakly [8]. - The glass market is in a weak supply - demand balance. The post - festival factory inventory remains high, and the demand for float glass may not continue to rise. The market may experience a second bottom - testing, but excessive short - selling is not advisable. Attention should be paid to potential positive factors from policies and production line changes [9][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions Soda Ash - **Market Data**: On October 21, the main soda ash futures SA601 contract oscillated. The closing price was 1,219 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 36,196 lots [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Weekly production decreased by 30,300 tons to 740,500 tons, a 3.93% week - on - week decline. The alkali plant inventory reached 1.705 million tons, at a low level in the past six months. The total shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises at the end of September was 881,000 tons, a 11.86% increase from the previous period. The demand for heavy soda ash changed little [8]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate weakly due to the lack of substantial positive factors [8]. Glass - **Market Data**: On October 21, FG601 closed at 1,091 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan or 2.41%; FG603 closed at 1,161 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan or 2.27% [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Float glass production was stable, and the photovoltaic glass was in a weak balance. The overall glass supply was at a high level this year. The post - festival factory inventory remained high, and the real - estate market showed no signs of stabilization [9]. - **Outlook**: The market may experience a second bottom - testing, but attention should be paid to potential positive factors from policies and production line changes [9][10]. 2. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts including soda ash weekly production, soda ash enterprise inventory, soda ash active contract price trend, glass active contract price trend, central China heavy soda market price, and flat glass production, with data sources from Wind, iFind, and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [14][16][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating" [6][7][8] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On October 20, 2025, the main economic indicators for September were announced. Data in real estate, infrastructure, and other fields related to black building materials remained poor. The prices of leading sector varieties dropped from their intraday highs and remained under pressure at night. The demand side of the industry continued to be weak. With the "15th Five - Year Plan" meeting underway, the market still expects policy benefits to boost confidence [1][2] - Entering late October, the traditional peak season is ending, and with tariff disturbances, the demand side is unlikely to perform well. Although high molten iron still supports the furnace charge in the short term, the market's negative feedback expectation strengthens as the peak season ends. Attention should be paid to the possibility of the "15th Five - Year Plan" meeting releasing sector benefits [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments rebounded slightly, and the arrival volume at 45 ports dropped from a high level. The demand side saw a slight decline in the average daily output of sample molten iron and the steel mill profitability rate, but molten iron remained at a high level. Port inventories continued to accumulate. The fundamentals of iron ore weakened marginally, but the overall pressure was not prominent. Policy expectations may cause fluctuations, and steel demand improved slightly. The future of Sino - US trade relations is uncertain, so short - term prices are expected to oscillate [2][8] - **Scrap Steel**: The arrival volume at steel mills decreased, and the electric furnace profit improved slightly. The fundamentals of scrap steel have no obvious contradictions. With the current pressure on finished product prices and poor electric furnace profits, short - term prices are expected to follow finished products [2][10] 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: The short - term supply and demand of coke remained tight. With rising costs, the second price increase was initiated, but steel prices were still weak. The price increase needs time to be implemented, and coke prices are expected to oscillate [2][11][13] - **Coking Coal**: Supply disturbances continued, and the production increment space of coal mines was limited. With low inventories, the fundamentals were healthy. Coking coal prices are expected to oscillate [2][11][12] 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: Short - term high costs, peak demand season, and policy expectations support the price, but the market's supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and there is still room for the price center to decline in the future [3][15] - **Silicon Iron**: Short - term peak demand season, policy expectations, and firm costs support the price, but the supply - demand relationship is becoming looser, and there is still downward pressure on prices [3][16] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Spot sales and production are weak. After the negative feedback between futures and spot, short - term prices show an oscillating and weakening trend. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and prices are expected to oscillate downward [3][12] - **Soda Ash**: The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. It is expected to follow macro - changes and oscillate widely. In the long run, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [3][14] 3.5 Steel - The fundamentals of steel still have contradictions. After the National Day, the demand for five major steel products recovered to a limited extent, and the inventory level is still moderately high. With the domestic important meeting this week, attention should be paid to policy disturbances, and short - term prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [7] 3.6 Commodity Index - On October 20, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities showed that the commodity 20 index was 2533.64, down 0.15%; the industrial products index was 2183.97, up 0.37%. The steel industry chain index was 1976.21, up 0.55% on the day, up 0.13% in the past 5 days, down 1.65% in the past month, and down 6.26% since the beginning of the year [102][104]

供需矛盾突出 今年"金九银十"，玻璃市场并未呈现旺季特征，核心因素在于需求偏弱。一方面，终端房地产市场复苏缓慢，长期压制玻璃需求。1—9月， 我国新建商品房销售面积、房屋新开工面积、房屋施工面积、房屋竣工面积累计同比增幅分别为-5.5%、-18.9%、-9.4%、-15.3%，较去年同 期降幅明显收窄，从侧面反映房地产行业持续复苏。但以上指标仍处于同比负增长状态，按照新开工至竣工的传导周期为18~24个月计算， 未来房地产行业对玻璃的需求仍处于同比下降趋势。另一方面，终端复苏缓慢抑制玻璃深加工订单量和开工水平。截至10月中旬，玻璃深加 工企业订单天数均值约10.4天，同比下降21.2%；下游Low-E玻璃开工率仅为43.7%，已连续4周下滑。 事实上，近几年玻璃市场常出现"旺季不旺"特征，今年9—10月需求也表现平淡。除季节性规律失调外，北方自9月下旬进入持续降雨周期， 天气因素限制了玻璃企业的出货效率，削弱玻璃采购需求的同时，也导致玻璃企业持续累库。截至10月中旬，玻璃企业库存为6427.56万重 箱，较9月末增长8.29%。 国庆节假期后，玻璃期现货价格双双下跌。10月20日，玻璃期货主力2601合约收盘 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview: Real Estate - **Market Performance**: The real estate market in 2025 is expected to see a decline in sales area, sales amount, land acquisition area, and new starts by approximately 10%, 12%, 12%, and 20% respectively, with real estate development investment decreasing by about 15% [1][3][4] - **Quarterly Expectations**: The fourth quarter of 2025 is anticipated to show poor data, but there may be improvements in the first quarter of 2026 due to the resilience of the market, stabilizing around 2 trillion [1][4] - **Price Trends**: New home prices in first and second-tier cities are expected to continue rising, while second-hand home prices will depend on the balance of supply and demand [1][4] Risks in the Real Estate Sector - **Key Risks**: The industry faces three main risks: delivery risk, systemic financial risk, and local debt risk. Most large real estate companies have resolved or can control their debt issues, with only a few, like Evergrande, still needing attention [1][5] Construction Industry Insights - **Investment Trends**: Narrow infrastructure investment saw a year-on-year decline of 4.6% in September 2025, marking the third consecutive month of negative growth, indicating that upcoming quarterly results may not meet expectations [1][6][7] - **Future Outlook**: Without unexpected policy support, infrastructure investment growth may continue to remain negative over the next six months [8][11] Manufacturing and Real Estate Investment - **Performance Metrics**: Both manufacturing and real estate investments are underperforming, with manufacturing down 1.9% year-on-year in September and real estate investment down 21.3%, indicating significant economic pressure [1][9] Building Materials Sector - **Current Status**: The building materials industry is also facing challenges, with cement production down 8.4% year-on-year in September and an expected cumulative decline of about 5.2% for the year [1][10] - **Future Expectations**: There is a need for policy support to improve demand in the building materials sector [10] Stock Recommendations - **Consumer Building Materials Stocks**: These stocks are worth attention due to the low environment and the necessity for upward policy support. Leading companies have moved away from dependence on real estate and are entering a moderate growth phase [2][13] - **Promising Companies**: Companies like Three Trees, Henkel Group, and Oriental Yuhong have shown signs of upward growth, driven by various strategic initiatives [14] - **Watchlist Companies**: Companies such as Weixing, Rabbit Baby, and Beixin are still worth monitoring despite not yet proving an upward growth point [15] Cement Industry Challenges and Opportunities - **Market Conditions**: The cement industry is currently facing low domestic demand, but there are opportunities in overseas markets, particularly in Africa, and strong demand in western infrastructure projects [17] Glass Industry Recommendations - **Recommended Stocks**: Xinyi Glass and Qibin Group are recommended due to their cost advantages and ability to maintain profitability at the industry cycle's bottom [18] Fiberglass Sector Outlook - **Future Prospects**: The fiberglass sector has an optimistic outlook, with strong demand in the electronic cloth segment and leading companies like China Jushi, Jushi Group, and Zhongcai Technology being highlighted as key recommendations [19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction materials industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - Short-term focus is on the "15th Five-Year Plan," while mid-term strategies await the economic work conference for direction [1]. - The construction materials sector has shown a decline of 4.11% this week, underperforming compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which fell by 2.22% [4]. - The report highlights the importance of domestic circulation and technological advancements in the industry, particularly in the context of the upcoming economic policies [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Bulk Construction Materials Fundamentals and High-Frequency Data - **Cement**: The national average price for high-standard cement is 346.8 CNY/ton, down by 2.3 CNY/ton from last week and down 61.8 CNY/ton from the same period in 2024. The average cement inventory ratio is 67.3%, up 0.6 percentage points from last week [4][20][15]. - **Glass**: The average price for float glass is 1301.0 CNY/ton, up 11.2 CNY/ton from last week and up 46.6% from 2024. Inventory levels have increased, indicating a potential oversupply [45][51]. - **Fiberglass**: The market for fiberglass remains stable, with prices for non-alkali yarn around 3250-3700 CNY/ton, showing a year-on-year decline of 3.93% [4][6]. 2. Industry Dynamics Tracking - The report notes that the cement market is experiencing weak demand, particularly in northern regions due to weather conditions, while southern regions face financial constraints [13][14]. - The glass market is characterized by high inventory levels and weak demand, leading to price fluctuations [44][51]. - The report emphasizes the need for supply-side reforms and the potential for price stabilization in the fiberglass sector as excess capacity is addressed [7][8]. 3. Weekly Market Review and Sector Valuation - The construction materials sector's valuation is at historical lows, with expectations for policy support to enhance profitability and valuation recovery [4][6]. - The report suggests that leading companies in the cement industry, such as Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement, are well-positioned to benefit from industry consolidation and improved market conditions [4][6].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [3] Core Views - Since October, domestic demand for building materials has shown weakness, with cement affected by cooling, rainfall, and funding issues, resulting in a year-on-year shipment rate still 10 percentage points lower as of last Friday. Glass prices are hindered by insufficient replenishment sentiment post-holiday, leading to increased producer inventory and price stagnation. Currently, the profitability of major building materials like cement and glass remains at relatively low levels. A previously released plan for stable growth in the building materials industry suggests potential continued policy support for supply-side optimization in the fourth quarter. As the year-end performance sprint approaches, companies may increasingly seek to optimize supply and raise prices through market mechanisms. Recent market performance indicates a relative advantage for cyclical stocks, suggesting a possible style shift in the fourth quarter. The building materials sector currently possesses both low valuation defensive attributes and valuation recovery momentum under anti-involution catalysts, continuing to recommend high-demand African cement and glass fiber with price increase expectations [2][17]. Summary by Sections Market Review - Last week (October 13-17, 2025), the CSI 300 index fell by 2.22%, while the building materials sector (CITIC) dropped by 3.48%. Among sub-sectors, ceramics and glass performed relatively well, while fiberglass saw a significant decline. Notable individual stock performances included Fashilong (up 18.1%), Huali Shares (up 14.5%), Hainan Development (up 10.9%), Saitex New Materials (up 7.7%), and Tubao (up 6.9%) [1][9]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends the following stocks: Western Cement, Huaxin Cement, Qingsong Construction, China National Materials, Honghe Technology, China Jushi, Sankeshu, and Dongpeng Holdings. The current building materials industry is nearing a cyclical bottom, with high-demand new materials expected to continue demonstrating growth potential. Cement is anticipated to benefit from improving infrastructure and real estate demand, with long-term supply dynamics expected to optimize. Recommended stocks include Huaxin Cement, Western Cement, and Qingsong Construction, with a focus on companies like Sankeshu and Dongpeng Holdings that are likely to improve their balance sheets as real estate policies become more favorable [3][17].