Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - CTAs are currently net short on RTY by $1.8 billion, with expectations of buying approximately $2.5 billion in the next week and $5.2 billion in the next month [2] - The GS Equity Fundamental L/S Performance Estimate increased by 1.29% from May 30 to June 5, outperforming the MSCI World TR which rose by 0.73% during the same period [2] - A significant portion of stocks (approximately 40%) is expected to enter a blackout period starting around June 16, estimated to last until July 25 [2] Summary by Relevant Sections CTA Corner - Over the next week, buyers are expected to contribute $2.77 billion, with $2.40 billion directed into the US market [5] - For the upcoming month, buyers are projected to contribute $8.19 billion, with $5.79 billion into the US [5] Key Levels for SPX - Short-term pivot level is at 5786, medium-term at 5793, and long-term at 5554 [5] Market Flows - Global equities saw net buying for the fifth consecutive week, with long buys outpacing short sales at a ratio of 1.7 to 1 [40] - Hedge funds have net bought US equities for five weeks, primarily driven by long buys in single stocks [42] - The US Energy long/short ratio is currently at 1.46, the highest level since October 2023 [42] Sentiment Indicators - The GS Sentiment Indicator decreased despite a market rally of 1.5%, indicating cautious investor sentiment [60] - The SPX put-call skew experienced a significant decline, suggesting increased demand for upside through call options [65]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report No clear core view is presented in the given content. The report mainly provides data on global asset market performance, including bond yields, exchange rates, stock indices, and futures trading data. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - Year Treasury Bond Yields**: Yields vary across different economies. For example, on 2025/06/06, the US was at 4.508, with a latest change of 0.115, a one - year change of - 0.043. Some yields have increased recently, while others have decreased [2]. - **2 - Year Treasury Bond Yields**: Similar to 10 - year yields, there are differences among economies. The US 2 - year yield on 2025/06/06 was 3.870, with a latest change of - 0.090 and a one - year change of - 1.060 [2]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar's exchange rates against major emerging economies' currencies show different trends. For instance, against the Brazilian real, it was 5.560 on 2025/06/06, with a latest change of - 0.50% and a one - year change of 7.74% [2]. - **Stock Indices**: Stock indices also have diverse performances. The S&P 500 on 2025/06/06 was 6000.360, with a latest change of 1.03% and a one - year change of 13.09% [2]. - **Credit Bond Indices**: Different types of credit bond indices (investment - grade and high - yield) in different regions (US, eurozone, emerging economies) have various changes. For example, the US investment - grade credit bond index had a latest change of - 0.49% [2]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: A - share closed at 3385.36 with a 0.04% change. Different indices like the CSI 300, SSE 50, etc., have different closing prices and percentage changes [3]. - **Valuation**: PE (TTM) values for different indices are provided, such as 12.56 for the CSI 300, with corresponding环比 changes [3]. - **Risk Premium**: Risk premium data (1/PE - 10 rate) and their环比 changes are given for multiple indices [3]. - **Fund Flows**: The latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flows for different segments of the A - share market are presented. For example, the latest value of A - share fund flow was - 518.24 [3]. - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volumes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and different indices are provided, along with环比 changes [3]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis and spread data for index futures like IF, IH, and IC are given [3]. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - **Closing Prices and Changes**: The closing prices and percentage changes of treasury bond futures (T00, TF00, T01, TF01) are shown. For example, T00 closed at 108.710 with a 0.03% change [4]. - **Funding Rates**: Funding rates (R001, R007, SHIBOR - 3M) and their daily changes are provided [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing economic and trade negotiations between China and the United States, highlighting the impact of recent economic data and policy decisions on various markets, including precious metals, stock indices, and crude oil [1][2][4]. Group 1: Economic and Trade Developments - The first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism took place from June 8 to June 13, with China's Ministry of Commerce stating that export controls on rare earths align with international practices [1]. - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for the seventh consecutive month, adding 60,000 ounces, although the pace of accumulation has slowed [1]. - US non-farm payrolls for May increased by 139,000, surpassing market expectations but marking the lowest growth since February [1][4]. Group 2: Precious Metals Market - The US non-farm data exceeded expectations, leading to a divergence in gold and silver prices, with gold experiencing a pullback while silver continued to strengthen [2][15]. - Concerns arose regarding the potential spread of tariffs on precious metals following President Trump's announcement to raise tariffs on steel and aluminum from 25% to 50% [2][15]. - The market anticipates a period of consolidation for gold and silver, with long-term support remaining clear, while short-term fluctuations may arise from US debt issues or potential quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve [2][15]. Group 3: Stock Indices - US stock indices showed an upward trend, with low volatility observed in the previous trading day [3][8]. - As of June 5, the financing balance in China increased by 4.599 billion yuan, indicating a favorable environment for medium to long-term investments in the stock market [3][8]. - Current valuation levels of major indices in China remain low, suggesting a high cost-effectiveness for long-term capital allocation [3][8]. Group 4: Crude Oil Market - Crude oil prices rose by 1.71% in the night session, supported by a decrease in US commercial crude oil inventories by 4.304 million barrels [10]. - The market is currently influenced by seasonal demand peaks and geopolitical issues, although long-term production increases pose a downside risk to prices [10]. - The potential for US sanctions on Venezuela and Iran remains a critical factor to monitor in the crude oil market [10]. Group 5: Domestic and International News - Canadian Prime Minister expressed willingness to restore relations with China, indicating a potential for increased cooperation in trade and other sectors [5]. - The Shanghai Shipping Exchange reported an increase in the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index, reflecting a rise in shipping costs [7].

美国市场正处于一个罕见的"叠加时刻"：特朗普既像典型的共和党那样大力减税，又延续民主党级别的 超高支出，美股则重现80年代去监管与90年代科技牛市的合体盛宴。 近日，美银首席投资策略师Michael Hartnett在最新报告中犀利指出，美国政府正在以7万亿美元的支出 对抗5万亿美元的收入，2万亿美元的赤字缺口让美元在5%国债收益率下依然暴跌。市场欢乐的背后， 是美元崩跌、债务激增与AI驱动下的不确定性。 "减税+撒钱"下的危局，美元失色，债务无底 美银的数据显示，自大选以来，代表权贵科技与金融的"bro billionaire"股票篮子暴涨45%，而代表特 朗普票仓的小盘股罗素2000指数却下跌7%。关税、减税、制造业回流、去监管——所有利好政策一应 俱全，但小投资者却无人问津。 这种分化正在重塑市场格局。Z世代和千禧一代面对高不可攀的房价选择了退却，转而通过股票和加密 货币为未来储蓄并对冲AI风险。经纪交易商与房屋建筑商的比值已达16年高点，而20-24岁大学毕业生 的失业率在过去三个月飙升至6%，远高于2023年12月的4%。 特朗普"既要减税，也要豪掷"，7万亿美元的财政支出，配合每年5万亿美元的收入 ...

大类资产&海外事件&数据：中美第二轮贸易谈判将启，美国非农就业强于预期 海外市场多数上涨，美债利率大幅上行。 当周，海外多数上涨，纳指上涨2.2%，仅日经225下跌0.6%。 10Y美债收益率上行10bp至4.51%；美元指数下跌0.2%至99.2，离岸人民币小幅升值。WTI原油大涨6.2% 至64.6美元/桶，COMEX黄金上涨0.6%至3308.2美元/盎司。 中美将启动第二轮贸易谈判。 特朗普6月6日宣布，将于6月9日在伦敦与中方开启第二轮贸易谈判，或重 点讨论协议到期后的关税走廊及调整机制、关键矿产出口恢复等问题。美国谈判代表将包括财政部长贝 森特、商务部长卢特尼克、贸易代表格里尔。 5月美国非农就业强于预期，欧央行6月降息25BP。 美国5月非农新增就业13.9万人，市场预期12.6万人。 失业率维持于4.2%，但数据背后就业市场仍存在走弱迹象；5月美国ISM制造业PMI回落至48.5；欧央行6 月会议降息25BP，拉加德表示降息周期即将结束。 文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、李欣越 联系人 | 李欣越 摘要 风险提示 地缘政治冲突升级；美国经济放缓超预期；美联储超预期转"鹰" 报告正文 二、大类资产&海外事 ...

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Core Viewpoint - Analysts are betting on a significant rebound opportunity for small-cap stocks, despite a poor start in 2025, with historical data suggesting a 60% chance of small-cap stocks outperforming large-cap stocks in June [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Russell 2000 index has declined approximately 5.9% year-to-date, underperforming the S&P 500's 1.5% gain, and small-cap stocks have not reached new highs since 2021 [1] - The sentiment around small-cap stocks is currently pessimistic, with call option volumes in the Russell 2000 ETF nearing their lowest since February [2] - Short positions in small-cap stocks have been increasing, with the iShares Russell 2000 ETF seeing its highest short amount since 2022 [2] Group 2: Potential Catalysts for Rebound - A substantial agreement between the U.S. and its trade partners, along with strong economic data, could serve as catalysts for a rebound in small-cap stocks [2] - The Russell 2000 index has shown a slight outperformance against the S&P 500 by 0.5 percentage points in the first three trading days of June [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The Russell 2000 index is currently at a critical turning point around 2100 points, with a potential rise to 2500 points (a 19% increase) if it breaks through this level [3]

A股中韩自贸区板块异动拉升，青岛双星涨停，朗姿股份此前涨停，连云港涨超7%，华光源海、青岛 金王、青岛食品跟涨。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the US dollar and US Treasury bonds are no longer considered safe-haven assets, and the dollar is expected to weaken in the coming years, potentially becoming a risk asset [1][2] - The market is experiencing a shift, leading to increased volatility, and while the dollar was previously strong, it is now facing challenges due to uncertainties such as tariffs [2] - Despite the weakening dollar, there is no recommendation against investing in US stocks; rather, it is suggested to preserve gains accumulated in the US stock market by reallocating funds to non-US assets [2] Group 2 - There is a significant influx of global capital into the Chinese capital markets, particularly the Hong Kong market, which has seen increased liquidity since September of last year [1][3] - The correlation between A-shares and precious metals has shifted, with both now behaving more like safe-haven assets, especially during downturns in the US stock market [3] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has reported a substantial increase in the base currency balance, leading to lower overnight rates and a surge of funds into the Hong Kong market, with estimates of $2 trillion to $3 trillion in overseas capital flowing in [3]

Group 1 - The article discusses the emergence of various acronyms in financial markets that reflect the volatility and uncertainty since Donald Trump's return to the presidency, with strategies linked to his economic and trade policies [1][2][3] - Acronyms like MAGA (Make America Great Again) and YOLO (You Only Live Once) were popular during the initial phase of Trump's presidency, driving significant market movements, but have since lost favor due to concerns over economic policies and market stability [2][3] - The TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) strategy has gained traction among traders, betting on Trump's tendency to backtrack on aggressive policies, leading to market rebounds after initial declines [3][4] Group 2 - MEGA (Make Europe Great Again) has resurfaced as European markets outperform U.S. markets, driven by increased interest in European equities and military spending in response to U.S. policies [5][6] - The MAGA variant, "Make America Go Away," reflects a growing sentiment among foreign investors to avoid U.S. markets due to concerns over inflation and the erosion of confidence in U.S. assets [6][7] - FAFO (Fuck Around and Find Out) describes the chaotic market conditions resulting from Trump's policy decisions, highlighting the risks of frequent trading in response to market volatility [7]