Market Overview - On the second trading day of October, major A-share indices declined, with growth indices like the ChiNext and STAR Market experiencing significant pullbacks, while dividend sectors rose against the trend [1] - The trading volume remained above 2.5 trillion, indicating active market participation despite a slight decrease in transaction volume [2] Performance of Indices - In the first three quarters of 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 15.84%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 29.88%, the CSI 300 Index by 17.94%, and the ChiNext Index by 51.20% [2] - The performance of various sectors showed a majority of gains, with non-ferrous metals leading at 67.52%, followed by communications at 62.61%, and electronics at 53.51% [2] ETF Performance - Several ETFs, including construction materials and high-dividend ETFs, saw gains exceeding 2%, while battery and integrated circuit ETFs dropped over 7% [1] - In the first three quarters, Hong Kong's innovative drug ETFs doubled, while energy and coal ETFs faced significant declines [2] Earnings Forecasts - As of October 10, 32 companies had released earnings forecasts, with 90.63% indicating positive growth, particularly in sectors like basic chemicals, steel, and non-ferrous metals [5] - The expected doubling of earnings is concentrated in the main board, ChiNext, and STAR Market, with 6, 2, and 1 stocks respectively [5] Investment Themes - Key investment themes include sectors benefiting from external interest rate cuts and emerging demand, such as non-ferrous metals and stable price sectors like steel and coal [5] - The focus on AI and related infrastructure is emphasized as a core investment direction, with applications in robotics, gaming, and military sectors also highlighted [6] Historical Context - Historically, the Shanghai Composite Index has shown mixed performance in October, with a 55% chance of monthly gains over the past 20 years, but with an average increase of only about 0.29% [4] - The Shenzhen Component Index has a 70% win rate, while the ChiNext Index has a 60% win rate, indicating a generally favorable outlook for these indices in October [3]

- The report introduces a quantitative model named "250-day new high distance" to track market trends and identify hot spots. The model is based on momentum and trend-following strategies, emphasizing stocks that consistently hit new highs. The formula for calculating the 250-day new high distance is: $ 250\text{-day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{Close_t}{ts\_max(Close, 250)} $ where $ Close_t $ represents the latest closing price, and $ ts\_max(Close, 250) $ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days. If the latest closing price hits a new high, the distance equals 0; otherwise, it reflects the percentage drop from the peak [11][19][27] - The report evaluates the model positively, citing its ability to capture market leaders and trends effectively. It references studies by George (2004), William O'Neil, and Mark Minervini, which highlight the importance of tracking stocks near their 52-week highs for superior returns [11][18][21] - The model's backtesting results show that as of October 10, 2025, major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and others have respective 250-day new high distances of 0.94%, 2.70%, 1.97%, 2.00%, 1.49%, 2.61%, 4.55%, and 5.61%. Industry indices like power utilities, steel, and basic chemicals are closer to their 250-day highs, while sectors like food and beverage, banking, and transportation are farther away [12][13][31] - A factor named "Stable New High Stocks" is constructed to identify stocks with smooth price paths and consistent momentum. The factor considers analyst attention (minimum 5 buy/hold ratings in the past 3 months), relative price strength (top 20% in 250-day returns), price path smoothness (measured by price displacement ratio), and trend continuation (average 250-day new high distance over the past 120 days and past 5 days). The top 50 stocks meeting these criteria are selected [25][27][28] - The factor is positively evaluated for its focus on smooth momentum and its ability to identify stocks with strong and consistent performance. It references studies by Turan G Bali (2011) and Da Gurun (2012), which highlight the advantages of smooth price paths in momentum strategies [25][27][28] - Backtesting results for the "Stable New High Stocks" factor show that 50 stocks were selected, with the highest representation in cyclical and technology sectors. Examples include Industrial Internet, Xiangnong Chip, and Xingye Yinxi. The cyclical sector is dominated by basic chemicals, while the technology sector is led by electronics [28][30][32]

Market Overview - The overall valuation of the market has increased, with the Wind All A Index leading the rise, up by 2.9 percentage points in PE-TTM historical percentile[5] - The PB-LF historical percentile also saw an increase across indices, with the CSI 300 leading at a rise of 4.4 percentage points[5] Industry Insights - In the automotive sector, PE valuation increased by 1.1 percentage points, leading among industries[6] - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a significant rise in PB valuation, up by 14.0 percentage points, indicating strong performance[6] Trading Activity - Trading activity has increased, with the turnover rate rising by 26.0% for the SSE 50 index, while total transaction volume decreased by 1.25%[6] - As of September 30, 2025, the margin trading balance was 2.39 trillion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 1.25% compared to September 26, 2025[6] Company Performance - The company reported a revenue growth from 678,800 yuan in 2022 to 1,908,800 yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 67.7%[12] - The gross profit margin improved significantly from 19.9% in 2022 to 32.7% in 2024, maintaining at 32.4% in the first half of 2025[12] Risk Factors - Risks include uncertainties in overseas economic conditions and geopolitical factors that may impact market stability[8] - Potential risks in the pharmaceutical sector include uncertainties in original IP incubation and fluctuations in consumer demand[13]

上纬新材(688585.SH)今日晚间公告称，公司股票将于10月13日复牌。 此前，公司因股票交易异常波动停牌核查。公司已关注到近期市场存在部分媒体关于上纬新材与实际控制人邓泰华及其控制的智元创新(上海)科技有限公 司相关资产进行整合的讨论与报道。 公司发函向公司收购人暨控股股东上海智元恒岳科技合伙企业(有限合伙)及实际控制人邓泰华核实，截至目前，收购方智元恒岳及其一致行动人上海致远 新创科技设备合伙企业(有限合伙)不存在在未来12个月内对上市公司及其子公司的资产和业务进行出售、合并、与他人合资或合作的明确计划，或上市公 司拟购买或置换资产的明确重组计划。截至目前，未来36个月内，智元创新不存在通过上市公司借壳上市的计划或安排。 公告还称，公司股票价格涨幅显著高于同期相关指数涨幅。2025年7月9日至2025年9月25日期间，公司股票价格累计涨幅上涨1,597.94%，涨幅显著高于科 创综指、科创50、上证综指等相关指数涨幅。值得注意的是，截至9月25日收盘，若以年内最大涨幅统计，上纬新材涨幅超20倍。 | 证券代 | 证券简称 | 停复牌 | 停牌起 | 停牌 | 停牌终止日 | 复牌日 | | --- | ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年10月10日 **Makel'sid.** **Hil's.Makel's.** **Hil's.Makel's. **Hil's.Makel's. 乘势而起：市场新高趋势追踪：截至 2025 年 10 月 10 日，上证指数、深 证成指、沪深 300、中证 500、中证 1000、中证 2000、创业板指、科创 50 指数 250 日新高距离分别为 0.94%、2.70%、1.97%、2.00%、1.49%、 2.61%、4.55%、5.61%。中信一级行业指数中电力及公用事业、钢铁、 建材、有色金属、基础化工行业指数距离 250 日新高较近，食品饮料、 银行、消费者服务、综合金融、交通运输行业指数距离 250 日新高较远。 概念指数中，林木、充电桩、风力发电、钢铁、钢铁Ⅳ、发电设备、可 转债正股等概念指数距离 250 日新高较近。 见微知著：利用创新高个股进行市场监测：截至 2025 年 10 月 10 日，共 1235 只股票在过去 20 个交易日间创出 250 日新高。其中创新高个股数量最多的 是电子、机械、基础化工行业，创新高个股数量占比最高的是有色金属、电 子、电力设备 ...

Core Viewpoint - The agricultural, animal husbandry, and fishery sector showed strong performance on October 10, with the first agricultural ETF (159275) experiencing a significant increase in net subscriptions and notable gains in constituent stocks [1][3]. Market Performance - The agricultural ETF (159275) opened lower but quickly rebounded, closing up 0.8% after reaching a maximum intraday gain of 1.5%. It recorded a net subscription of 52 million units by the end of the day [1]. - Key stocks in the sector, such as TianKang Biological and GuanNong Co., saw increases exceeding 7%, while several others, including XiongDi Technology and ShengWu Shares, rose over 4% [1]. Industry Dynamics - The pig farming industry is undergoing capacity reduction, with a reported decrease of 400,000 breeding sows compared to the previous month and a total reduction of 3.4 million from the peak last year [2]. - Recent outbreaks of African swine fever in Vietnam and Guangxi, China, have heightened risks for the farming sector. A meeting on September 16 emphasized policies aimed at reducing production capacity [2][3]. Investment Outlook - Analysts from Pacific Securities and Dongfang Securities suggest that the current fundamentals and policy changes favor capacity reduction in the pig farming industry, indicating potential long-term investment value as most listed companies are at historical low valuations [3][4]. - The agricultural sector's valuation remains low, with the agricultural ETF's underlying index trading at a price-to-book ratio of 2.61, which is in the lower 34.9% of the past decade, suggesting a favorable entry point for investors [3]. Future Trends - The trend towards improving quality and efficiency in the pig farming industry is expected to continue, with outdated capacities being phased out and market dynamics shifting towards higher prices in the long term [4][5]. - Investment opportunities are identified in various segments, including pig farming, feed, animal health, and crop planting, as the demand for these sectors is anticipated to rise with the recovery of pig stocks [5][6].

Group 1 - The report tracks stocks, industries, and sectors reaching new highs, indicating market trends and hotspots [1][4] - As of October 10, 2025, the distance to the 250-day new high for major indices is as follows: Shanghai Composite Index 0.94%, Shenzhen Component Index 2.70%, CSI 300 1.97%, CSI 500 2.00%, CSI 1000 1.49%, CSI 2000 2.61%, ChiNext Index 4.55%, and STAR Market 5.61% [5][23] - Among the CITIC primary industry indices, power and utilities, steel, building materials, non-ferrous metals, and basic chemicals are closest to their 250-day new highs, while food and beverage, banking, consumer services, comprehensive finance, and transportation are further away [8][23] Group 2 - A total of 1,235 stocks reached a 250-day new high in the past 20 trading days, with the most in the electronics, machinery, and basic chemicals sectors [2][13] - The highest proportion of new high stocks is found in non-ferrous metals, electronics, and electric equipment and new energy sectors, with respective proportions of 54.03%, 39.75%, and 35.05% [13][15] - The technology and manufacturing sectors had the most new high stocks this week, with 403 and 363 stocks respectively [15] Group 3 - The report identifies 50 stable new high stocks based on analyst attention, relative strength, trend continuity, price path stability, and new high sustainability [3][24] - The cyclical and technology sectors had the most stable new high stocks, with 18 and 17 stocks respectively, with basic chemicals leading in the cyclical sector and electronics in the technology sector [19][24]

Group 1: IPO Market Trends - In September 2025, the A-share market saw 12 new IPOs, raising a total of 11.9 billion yuan, a 308% increase month-on-month[9] - The Shanghai and Shenzhen markets issued 8 new stocks in September, with a total fundraising of 10.6 billion yuan, marking a 607% increase month-on-month[9] - The average first-day closing price increase for new stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 207%, maintaining a "zero break" status for the year[33] Group 2: Valuation and Investor Participation - The average first-day PE ratio for new stocks was 24 times, with a 31% discount compared to comparable companies, indicating a narrowing valuation gap[20] - The average subscription rate for A/B class investors in the Shenzhen market was 0.0216%/0.0182%, reflecting a decrease of 1% and 15% respectively month-on-month[27] - The average number of offline inquiry products in the Shenzhen market reached a new high, with 8,275 products participating in September[24] Group 3: Regulatory Environment and Future Outlook - As of September 2025, there were 118 IPO projects pending approval in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, with a total proposed fundraising of 208.8 billion yuan[59] - The approval and registration process for IPOs has accelerated, with 12 projects reviewed and 13 registered in September, both hitting yearly highs[54] - Risks include potential changes in the IPO review pace, adjustments in issuance systems, and fluctuations in investor participation[48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In September, convertible bonds underperformed underlying stocks overall, but there was significant differentiation among sectors. High - price convertible bonds continued their strong performance, and the high - price convertible bond index led the gains. The technology sector's rise slightly declined, while the financial sector was under pressure. Under the expectation of a bull market in the equity market, the double - low strategy continued to underperform the high - price and low - premium strategy [1][2][3]. - Although high - price convertible bonds have stronger equity characteristics, the double - low strategy still has the advantage of being offensive and defensive. Actively screening sectors and individual stocks according to market trends can help obtain excess returns. In the context of the continuous rise of convertible bonds, the valuation has reached a relatively high historical level, and the number of individual bonds triggering forced redemptions is increasing [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Convertible Bond Monthly Market Tracking - Overall performance: In September (from September 1st to 30th), the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.97%, while the CSI All - Share Index rose 2.65%. Year - to - date (as of September 30th), the CSI Convertible Bond Index and the CSI All - Share Index rose 17.11% and 23.68% respectively. The convertible bonds underperformed underlying stocks, but there was obvious differentiation among sectors. The CSI Convertible Bond Index underperformed the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indexes by 1 pct and 3 pct respectively, but outperformed the CSI 2000 index by 2 pct [11]. - Classification by price: In September, the Wind high - price convertible bond index rose 5.92%, with the growth rate narrowing compared to August, but still significantly leading the low - price (+3.14%) and medium - price (+3.26%) convertible bonds. Since May, high - price convertible bonds have continuously outperformed medium - and low - price ones. Year - to - date (as of September 30th), the high - price convertible bond index has accumulated a 27.47% increase, especially significantly outperforming medium - and low - price indexes in the third quarter [12]. - Classification by outstanding scale: In September, the Wind small - cap (+2.73%) and medium - cap (+2.89%) convertible bond indexes led the gains, significantly outperforming the large - cap convertible bonds (+0.14%). Year - to - date (as of September 30th), the small - cap convertible bond index rose 23.93%, far ahead of the large - cap (+10.56%) and medium - cap (+17.35%) convertible bonds [16]. - Classification by credit rating: In September, the AAA high - rating convertible bond index fell 1.36%, while the AA - and below convertible bond index rose 3.15%, underperforming the AA + (+3.75%) and AA (+4.23%) convertible bond indexes. Throughout the year, low - rating convertible bonds still significantly outperformed high - rating ones, reflecting a relatively high market risk appetite [18]. - Sector performance: In September, the technology sector's rise slightly declined, and the financial sector was under pressure. The information technology and industrial convertible bond indexes rose 4.28% and 4.11% respectively, with the information technology sector still being the best - performing one. Except for information technology, industrial, and material convertible bonds, the performance of convertible bonds in other sectors was stronger than that of underlying stocks. The convertible bonds and underlying stocks in the financial sector both declined in September [22]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Monthly Investment Recommendations 3.2.1 Strategy Recommendation: Select High - Growth Industries from Low - Price Convertible Bonds - September double - low portfolio performance: The double - low portfolio constructed in September selected the bottom 10% of individual bonds in terms of double - low values. After active screening, 10 individual bonds were obtained, mainly concentrated in the light manufacturing and non - ferrous metals industries. From September 1st to 30th, the portfolio's return rate was 5.92%, outperforming the CSI Convertible Bond Index by about 4 pct. Cumulatively, since its construction in June, the portfolio's cumulative return rate was 19.12%, outperforming the CSI Convertible Bond Index by 5.3 pct [31]. - October double - low portfolio recommendation: In the context of the continuous rise of convertible bonds, individual bonds with low double - low values face higher risks of delisting and forced redemption, and the number of eligible individual bonds has decreased. This month, 10 individual bonds were selected from the bottom 10% of double - low value rankings. These recommended individual bonds are mainly concentrated in non - ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and power equipment industries, with an average convertible bond price of 133 yuan, conversion value of 122 yuan, and conversion premium rate of 9% [35]. 3.2.2 Allocation Recommendation: Focus on Technology Growth and "Anti - involution" - Related Sectors - Convertible bonds have entered a high - valuation range. At this stage, more attention should be paid to the safety margin. Under the unbroken expectation of a bull market, sectors at a low level with the expectation of a catch - up can be focused on. It is recommended to pay attention to "anti - involution" - related sectors with long - term logic, such as photovoltaic, lithium battery, engineering machinery, and chemical industries, as well as the callback layout opportunities of high - growth sectors such as robotics, semiconductors, AI computing power, and innovative drugs [37].

石化ETF（159731）及其联接基金（017855/017856）紧密跟踪中证石化产业指数，从申万一级行业分 布来看，基础化工行业占比为61.93%，石油石化行业占比为30.84%。前十大权重股分别为万华化学、 中国石油、盐湖股份、中国石化、中国海油、巨化股份、藏格矿业、金发科技、华鲁恒升和宝丰能源， 前十大权重股合计占比55.12%。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 东海证券认为，国内方面，国家政策端对供给侧要求（"反内卷"）频繁提及；海外方面，上涨的原料成 本+亚洲产能冲击，欧美化工企业近期多经历关停、产能退出等事件。短期来看，地缘摩擦反复，海外 化工供应不确定性有所增加；长期来看，我国化工产业链竞争优势明显，凭借显著的成本优势和不断突 破的技术实力，中国化工企业正迅速填补国际供应链的空白，有望重塑全球化工产业的格局 10月10日午后，三大指数延续下跌态势，中证石化产业指数逆势上涨，现涨约0.4%。成分股中，新凤 鸣涨超5%，荣盛石化、鲁西化工、兴发集团、恒逸石化等涨幅居前。相关ETF方面，石化ETF （159731）跟随指数上涨。 ...