（二）券商最新研判 （一）重磅消息 据新华社报道，国务院总理7月26日在上海出席2025世界人工智能大会暨人工智能全球治理高级别会议 开幕式并致辞。围绕如何把握人工智能公共产品属性、推进人工智能发展和治理，提出三点建议。一是 更加注重普及普惠，充分用好人工智能发展的已有成果。二是更加注重创新合作，力求更多突破性的人 工智能科技硕果。三是更加注重共同治理，确保人工智能在造福人类上最终修成正果。 信达证券：当下市场具备政策和流动性驱动牛市的条件 牛市重要的驱动力量之一是股市政策驱动股权融资减少。2023年下半年以来，随着股权融资规模的下 降，股市的供需结构也在扭转。当下市场也具备政策和流动性驱动牛市的条件。 战略上，2025年下半年可能会出现类似2014年下半年的突破，战术上要等待经济或政策的催化。估值位 置偏低、上市公司盈利偏弱、政策基调积极、各类主题机会活跃，这些很像2013年~2014年年中和2019 年的震荡市，最终的结局大概率是更全面的牛市。战术层面，之前突破的临界点均有政策和经济高频数 据催化，目前需要等待观察1~2个月。 行业配置方面，稳健策略包括非银、银行，指数权重大且机构低配。需要轮动的策略上， ...

Group 1 - The report discusses the rationale behind the "bull market atmosphere," emphasizing that time is a friend to the bull market as it supports fundamental improvements and incremental capital inflows [3][4][6] - The midstream manufacturing sector is expected to see supply-demand improvements starting in mid-2026, with a significant reduction in capital expenditures leading to a prolonged window for supply-demand balance [4][6][8] - The report notes that while conditions for residents to fully allocate equity are still lacking, the accumulation of profit effects has accelerated, with the fund-heavy stock index rising by 11% since June 23 [4][6][8] Group 2 - The report highlights that the "high-cut low" market behavior is not just a temporary phase but is supported by the "anti-involution" trend and the catalytic effects of major hydropower projects [8][9][10] - It suggests that the current market is in a transitional phase, seeking to identify the main structural themes of the bull market, with opportunities to explore new structural chances [10][11] - The report identifies non-bank financials and innovative pharmaceuticals as clear mid-term opportunities, while also suggesting a strategic focus on Hong Kong stocks, particularly in internet leaders, new consumption, and high-dividend stocks [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The article provides an overview of the mid-year earnings forecasts for A-shares in 2025, highlighting a significant number of companies with positive earnings expectations compared to those with negative forecasts [1][2]. Group 1: Company Earnings Forecast Types - As of July 24, over 1,500 companies have released their mid-year earnings forecasts, with 890 companies expecting positive earnings (including increases, reduced losses, and continued profits) and 685 companies anticipating negative earnings (including first losses and profit reductions) [1]. Group 2: Industry Earnings Forecast Statistics - Among the 30 industries tracked, 12 industries have more than 50% of companies forecasting positive earnings, including non-bank financials, utilities, telecommunications, automotive, electronics, and more [2]. Group 3: Earnings Forecast Rankings - 70 companies are expected to report a net profit of over 1 billion yuan, with 5 companies forecasting profits exceeding 10 billion yuan. China Shenhua leads with an expected net profit of 23.6 billion to 25.6 billion yuan [5][6]. Group 4: Top 30 Companies by Earnings Forecast - The top three companies by forecasted net profit are: 1. China Shenhua: 236-256 billion yuan [6] 2. Zijin Mining: 232 billion yuan [6] 3. Guotai Junan: 152.83-159.57 billion yuan [6]. Group 5: Year-on-Year Net Profit Growth - 29 companies with positive earnings forecasts expect net profit growth exceeding 1000% compared to last year, with Southern Precision Engineering forecasting a staggering increase of 28647%-35784% [7][8]. Group 6: Year-on-Year Net Profit Decline - Among the companies with negative earnings forecasts, *ST Nanzhi is expected to see the largest decline, with a projected drop of 18396.17%-25257.32%, resulting in a loss of 800 million to 1.1 billion yuan [9][10]. Group 7: Securities Firms Earnings Forecast - 29 listed securities firms have released their mid-year earnings forecasts, with Guotai Haitong predicting the highest net profit of 152.83-159.57 billion yuan, followed by China Galaxy with 63.62-68.01 billion yuan [11][12].

Group 1 - Public funds increased their holdings in the banking, telecommunications, and non-bank financial sectors by 1.6%, 1.6%, and 0.8% respectively in Q2 2025, while reducing their positions in food and beverage, automotive, and power equipment sectors by 2.1% and 0.9% [1] - The defense sector also saw increased interest from public funds due to heightened geopolitical uncertainties, ranking fourth in terms of increased holdings [1] - The holdings in the STAR Market by public funds rose by 0.4%, reaching a historical high of 14.8% [1] Group 2 - New fund issuance remained sluggish in Q2 2025, with a total of 59.9 billion units of actively managed equity and mixed funds issued, a year-on-year increase of 128%, but down 73% from the peak levels of 2020-2021 [4] - Active management funds have consistently outperformed the CSI 300 index since Q3, indicating potential for increased fund inflows as market performance improves [4] - Positive catalysts in high-holding sectors may lead to increased new fund issuance, providing additional liquidity and creating a positive feedback loop [4] Group 3 - Net inflows from southbound funds reached 273.9 billion RMB in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 25%, with the financial sector seeing the largest inflow [5] - Public funds' holdings in Hong Kong stocks increased by 1.5%, reaching 18.8%, a rise of 6.6 percentage points from Q4 2024 [5] - The AH premium significantly decreased in the first half of 2025 due to liquidity differences between A-shares and H-shares, with expectations of maintaining mid-term low levels [5] Group 4 - The "national team" is estimated to have increased its holdings in A-share ETFs by over 200 billion RMB in Q2 2025, with 65% directed towards CSI 300 index ETFs [6] - The "national team's" actions reflect a commitment to stabilizing the capital market and providing downside protection for A-shares [6] - In extreme scenarios, the "national team" has the capacity to further increase holdings to stabilize the market [7]

沪指本周上涨1.67%，深成指上涨2.33%，创业板指上涨2.76%，沪深300指数上涨1.69%。可交易A股 中，上涨的有3856只，占比71.26%，下跌的1503只。 资金面上，本周主力资金合计净流出1366.37亿元。其中，创业板主力资金净流出401.29亿元；科创板主 力资金净流出87.58亿元；沪深300成份股主力资金净流出224.21亿元。 本周主力资金流向概况（单位：亿元） | 日期 | 深沪两市 | 创业板 | 科创板 | 沪深300 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 一周合计 | -1366.37 | -401.29 | -87.58 | -224.21 | | 7月25日 | -493.76 | -103.43 | -8.19 | -171.68 | | 7月24日 | 89.13 | 11.51 | -17.99 | 81.79 | | 7月23日 | -515.28 | -108.88 | -28.79 | -102.02 | | 7月22日 | -377.02 | -113.82 | -15.25 | -15.12 | | 7月21日 | -6 ...

以银行股为代表的红利资产，除了保险资金不断举牌加仓外，公募基金也在增配。 近日，公募基金二季度持仓公布，主动权益类基金持有银行股的占比上升了0.9个百分点，非银金融持仓也提高了0.6个百分点，不过相对于 行业配置基准（行业市值占全A市值的比例）仍有空间。目前银行股的股息率仍然突出，平均市净率PB也低于1，但出于对净息差收窄和地 产下行拖累的担忧，市场对银行股的看法也存在分歧。 值得注意的是，当险资频频举牌银行H股，公募基金也开始增配， 部分银行股的A/H价差收窄，招商银行A/H价格倒挂，邮储银行、民生银 行等A/H溢价率大幅收窄，考虑到港股通20%或28%的红利税成本，后续在具体个股和A/H股的选择上，资金偏好可能有所分化。 金融股持仓比例提升 整体上，主动权益类基金在二季度明显增配了银行股和非银金融（券商、保险等），保险资金也在港股市场上频繁举牌银行股，但局部上一 些资金也获利了结，关于银行股的共识与分歧已经出现。 比如中泰资管的百亿基金经理姜诚，二季度就小幅减仓工商银行、招商银行，不过这两只银行股仍是他管理的中泰星元灵活配置混合A前十 大重仓股。姜诚一直认为选择红利股的关键不仅是股息率高，而且有持续且稳定 ...

Core Insights - As of July 24, the total market financing balance reached 1.93 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.097 billion yuan from the previous trading day, marking four consecutive days of growth in financing balance [1] - On July 24, 1,965 stocks received net financing purchases, with 559 stocks having net purchases exceeding 10 million yuan, and 30 stocks exceeding 100 million yuan [1] - The top net financing purchase was for China Power Construction, with a net purchase of 725 million yuan, followed by Zhongjin Gold and Northern Rare Earth with net purchases of 512 million yuan and 304 million yuan, respectively [1][2] Financing Balance and Stock Performance - The average financing balance as a percentage of circulating market value for stocks with significant net purchases is 3.56%, with Jianghuai Automobile having the highest ratio at 9.22% [2] - The stocks with the highest net financing purchases on July 24 included: - China Power Construction: 725 million yuan, 10.04% increase - Zhongjin Gold: 511 million yuan, 4.41% decrease - Northern Rare Earth: 303 million yuan, 9.00% increase - Iron Construction Machinery: 298 million yuan, 8.43% increase - Huatai Securities: 296 million yuan, 3.28% increase [2][3] Industry Distribution - The industries with the most stocks receiving net financing purchases exceeding 100 million yuan include: - Non-ferrous metals: 5 stocks - Non-bank financials: 4 stocks - Machinery equipment: 3 stocks [1] - The distribution of significant net purchases shows that 25 stocks are from the main board, 3 from the ChiNext board, and 2 from the Sci-Tech Innovation board [1]

Group 1 - As of the end of Q2 2025, public funds held shares in a total of 2,917 A-share companies, with a total market value of approximately 25,837 billion yuan, a decrease of about 50 billion yuan compared to the end of Q1 [1] - The electronics industry had the highest total market value of fund holdings, approximately 4,392 billion yuan, followed by power equipment, food and beverage, pharmaceutical and biological, and banking industries, each with market values exceeding 2,000 billion yuan [3] - A total of 43 A-share companies had public fund holdings exceeding 100 billion yuan, with 11 from the electronics industry and 4 each from non-bank financials, banking, food and beverage, and pharmaceutical and biological sectors [3] Group 2 - As of the end of Q2 2025, 99 companies had a public fund holding ratio of over 10% of their circulating shares, with 13 from the electronics industry and 8 from the pharmaceutical and biological industry among the top 30 companies by holding ratio [4] - The most favored A-share company by public funds was Ningde Times, with a holding market value of approximately 1,426 billion yuan, followed by Kweichow Moutai at approximately 1,252 billion yuan [3] - A total of 136 A-share companies were heavily held by over 100 funds, with the most popular company being Ningde Times, held by 1,774 funds, while Zijin Mining, Midea Group, and Kweichow Moutai were also held by over 1,000 funds [3]

（文章来源：证券时报网） | 代码 | 最新融资余额（亿元） | 较上一日增减（亿元） | 环比增幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 有色金属 | 886.42 | 25.87 | 3.01 | | 银行 | 605.53 | 14.95 | 2.53 | | 建筑装饰 | 347.03 | 9.96 | 2.96 | | 医药生物 | 1382.85 | 7.68 | 0.56 | | 机械设备 | 1017.61 | 5.66 | 0.56 | | 基础化工 | 835.80 | 5.26 | 0.63 | | 通信 | 686.03 | 4.37 | 0.64 | | 电子 | 2194.53 | 4.03 | 0.18 | | 环保 | 160.20 | 3.66 | 2.34 | | 公用事业 | 461.90 | 3.65 | 0.80 | | 国防军工 | 695.78 | 3.37 | 0.49 | | 家用电器 | 267.16 | 3.19 | 1.21 | | 交通运输 | 344.43 | 2.98 | 0.87 | | 煤炭 | 161.94 | 2 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed above 3600 points, specifically at 3605.73, with a gain of 0.65% [2][4] - The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index also saw significant increases, rising by 1.21% and 1.50% respectively [2][4] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Beauty Care (3.10%), Non-ferrous Metals (2.78%), and Steel (2.68%) [3] - Conversely, the Banking sector recorded a decline of 1.42%, while the Communication sector fell by 0.15% [3] Conceptual Sector Highlights - The Hainan Free Trade Zone and the Horse Racing concept were among the leading conceptual sectors, with gains of 9.11% and 4.67% respectively [3][4] - In contrast, the F5G concept and Controlled Nuclear Fusion sectors experienced declines of 0.55% and 0.09% respectively [3][4] Future Outlook - The report indicates a strong short-term technical outlook, with the potential for continued upward movement in the market, although increased selling pressure may lead to volatility [5] - The attractiveness of Chinese assets is expected to rise due to macro policy support and capital market reforms, with a long-term upward trend anticipated [5] Investment Focus - Short-term investment focus should be on sectors expected to report favorable mid-year results, while long-term attention should be directed towards domestic demand, technology, and dividend-paying sectors [5]