Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The industrial silicon market is expected to mainly experience range - bound fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the positions of the 2512 contract of polysilicon [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: - For industrial silicon Si2601, the closing price is 9,115 yuan/ton, with changes of - 95 yuan compared to T - 1, - 40 yuan compared to T - 5, and - 160 yuan compared to T - 22. The trading volume is 323,524 lots, down 45,701 lots from T - 1, down 250,821 lots from T - 5, and up 62,437 lots from T - 22. The open interest is 237,648 lots, down 22,881 lots from T - 1, down 36,330 lots from T - 5, and up 25,978 lots from T - 22 [2]. - For polysilicon PS2601, the closing price is 55,235 yuan/ton, down 660 yuan from T - 1 and up 2,785 yuan from T - 5. The trading volume is 324,070 lots, down 6,246 lots from T - 1 and up 19,235 lots from T - 5. The open interest is 141,586 lots, down 1,457 lots from T - 1 and up 7,294 lots from T - 5 [2]. - **Price and Basis**: - Industrial silicon spot prices vary by region. For example, Xinjiang 99 - silicon is 8,900 yuan/ton, and Yunnan Si4210 is 10,000 yuan/ton. Polysilicon - N - type re - feedstock is 52,300 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of industrial silicon and polysilicon also shows different trends. For example, the industrial silicon spot premium (against East China Si5530) is + 435 yuan/ton [2]. - **Profit**: - Silicon factory profits in Xinjiang (new standard 553) are - 2,154.5 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan (new standard 553) are - 3,401 yuan/ton. Polysilicon enterprise profits are 7.7 yuan/kg [2]. - **Inventory**: - Industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 550,000 tons, with an increase of 2,000 tons compared to T - 5 and a decrease of 8,000 tons compared to T - 22. The enterprise inventory of industrial silicon (sample enterprises) is 180,000 tons, with an increase of 1,800 tons compared to T - 5 and an increase of 12,000 tons compared to T - 22. The industry inventory (social + enterprise inventory) is 730,000 tons, with an increase of 3,800 tons compared to T - 5 and an increase of 3,900 tons compared to T - 22. The industrial silicon futures warehouse receipt inventory is 198,000 tons, down 4,000 tons from T - 1, down 14,000 tons from T - 5, and down 42,000 tons from T - 22. The polysilicon factory inventory is 281,000 tons, with an increase of 10,000 tons compared to T - 5 and an increase of 20,000 tons compared to T - 22 [2]. - **Raw Material Cost**: - The prices of raw materials such as silicon ore, washed coking coal, petroleum coke, and electrodes in different regions are provided. For example, the price of silicon ore in Xinjiang is 320 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan is 290 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On November 22, 2025, the list of winning bidders for the 2025 photovoltaic module centralized procurement project of China Energy Engineering Group Co., Ltd. was publicly announced. The total scale of the tender is estimated to be 17GW, divided into 8 bid packages, covering 182mm TOPCon modules, 210mm TOPCon modules, HJT modules, and BC modules [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The trend intensity of polysilicon is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - For industrial silicon, the spot price remains stable, and the supply - demand pattern may improve during the dry season but still shows a cumulative inventory pattern. The industrial silicon futures are mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there are policies to promote, the futures may have room to rise. For polysilicon, the supply and demand both weaken, with high inventory pressure and general consumption performance. The futures are affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and are expected to fluctuate mainly [3][6] Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On November 26, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2601 opened at 8,960 yuan/ton and closed at 9,020 yuan/ton, a change of 0.28% from the previous settlement. The position of the 2511 main contract was 260,529 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 40,425 lots, a decrease of 289 lots from the previous day. The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable, with prices in various regions unchanged [1] - The Lanzhou Dongjin Silicon Industry Co., Ltd. organic silicon integration project (change) has its total land area changed to 1,667.45 mu. The first - phase product is changed to 400,000 tons/year of industrial silicon blocks, and the second - phase will build a production line for 400,000 tons/year of organic silicon monomers and supporting downstream products [2] - The organic silicon DMC market is stable, with a current mainstream quotation of 13,100 - 13,200 yuan/ton. Manufacturers have a strong willingness to hold prices, and downstream enterprises actively follow up, with increased market confidence. It is expected to run steadily and strongly in the short term [2] Polysilicon - On November 26, 2025, the polysilicon futures main contract 2601 showed a strong - side fluctuation, opening at 54,730 yuan/ton and closing at 55,895 yuan/ton, a 2.93% change from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 143,043 lots, and the trading volume was 330,316 lots [4] - The polysilicon spot price weakened slightly. The polysilicon manufacturer inventory and silicon wafer inventory increased, with polysilicon inventory at 271,000 tons (a 1.50% change) and silicon wafer inventory at 18.72 GW (a 1.63% change). The weekly polysilicon production was 27,100 tons (a 1.11% change), and the silicon wafer production was 12.78 GW (a - 2.59% change) [4][5] - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components were provided, with some prices remaining stable and some having slight changes [5] Strategy Industrial Silicon - The spot price is stable. The industrial silicon futures are mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. Short - term interval operation is recommended, and contracts during the dry season can be bought at low prices [3] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures are affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality. Short - term interval operation is recommended, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot price of polysilicon remains stable, with a consensus on price support from policies and enterprises. In the short - term, the industry lacks the internal driving force for supply - demand improvement. The supply - demand situation will remain loose, and the profit of the industrial chain has concentrated on the polysilicon end. The futures price will operate within the range of the spot price [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The price of the polysilicon main contract showed a strong trend. The closing price of the PS2601 contract was 55,895 yuan/ton, with a 2.93% increase. The trading volume was 330,316 lots, and the open interest was 143,043 lots, with a net increase of 13,966 lots [4]. - **Spot Price**: The transaction price range of n - type polysilicon re - feeding materials was 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan/ton, remaining flat compared to the previous period. The transaction price range of n - type granular silicon was 50,000 - 51,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 50,500 yuan/ton, also remaining flat [4]. - **Future Outlook**: The spot price of polysilicon will continue to be stable. In the short - term, the industry lacks the internal driving force for supply - demand improvement. The production of silicon materials in November and December is expected to remain at 120,000 tons, and the production of silicon wafers and solar cells is stable. The supply - demand will remain loose. The weak terminal demand pressure is gradually transmitted to the upstream of the industrial chain. The prices of downstream silicon wafers and components continued to decline this week, which also hinders the price increase of silicon materials. There is no actual positive news from the policy side, but the official and enterprise consensus is to emphasize stability. The futures price will operate within the range of the spot price [4]. 3.2 Market News - On November 25, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 7,270 lots, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [5]. - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association stated that it is working with industry enterprises, and all relevant work is progressing steadily. The rumors on the Internet are false information. The association will fight against malicious short - selling and other bad behaviors [5]. - The Silicon Industry Branch of the association estimated that the production in November was about 118,000 tons, a 14% decrease from 137,000 tons in October. The production in December is expected to rebound to about 120,000 tons [5]. - The Silicon Industry Branch said that the industrial chain has reached an implicit consensus that if the polysilicon price continues to decline, it may lead to the collapse of the entire industrial chain price system, so enterprises are determined to stabilize the price [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. In November, the supply and demand of the industrial silicon market will both decline, with a larger decline in supply. However, due to the large supply base and the replenishment of the spot market by cancelled warehouse receipts, there is still expected to be inventory accumulation pressure. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [1]. Polysilicon - It is expected to maintain a high - level range oscillation. The market is in a situation of both supply and demand decline, with inventory accumulation expected in each link, but strong spot support. The backwardation market structure will remain. For trading strategies, try to go long at around 50,000 for futures; hold or take profit on sell put options for options, and consider buying straddles if volatility decreases [2]. Tin - With strong fundamentals, a bullish view on tin prices is maintained. Hold previous long positions and pay attention to macro - end changes and the recovery of supply in Myanmar [4]. Aluminum - Alumina is expected to maintain a bottom - level oscillation, with the main contract operating in the range of 2,700 - 2,850 yuan/ton. Whether the market can rebound depends on the actual production cut scale of existing enterprises and the inventory inflection point. Electrolytic aluminum is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, with the Shanghai aluminum main contract operating in the range of 21,100 - 21,700 yuan/ton. Focus on overseas monetary policy trends and domestic inventory destocking rhythm [6]. Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate. The supply - side pressure has gradually eased, and the demand side has shown a structural improvement. However, the terminal demand has remained stable, and there is limited upward momentum. The main reference range is 22,200 - 22,800 yuan/ton [7]. Copper - In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the bottom center of copper prices. Pay attention to macro - drivers such as overseas interest - rate cut expectations. The main reference range is 85,500 - 87,500 yuan/ton [8]. Nickel - The macro - situation is temporarily stable, and the fundamentals remain weak. However, due to upstream production cuts and low valuations, the market may oscillate and repair. In the medium term, the abundant supply will still restrict the upward space of prices. The main reference range is 116,000 - 120,000 yuan/ton [9]. Aluminum Alloy - The price of ADC12 is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term, with the main contract operating in the range of 20,300 - 20,900 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the improvement of scrap aluminum supply and the change in downstream procurement rhythm [11]. Stainless Steel - The policy - driven effect is difficult to be directly transmitted in the short term, cost support is weakening, and the fundamental structure has not improved significantly. There is still pressure on the supply - side steel mill production schedule and social inventory, and the demand is weak in the off - season. It is expected to oscillate, with the main operating range of 12,300 - 12,700 yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The market is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term, with the main reference range of 90,000 - 95,000 yuan. Although the market has a bullish sentiment, there is limited substantial new driving force [15]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Spot Prices and Basis - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot prices of various grades of industrial silicon remained stable on November 25, 2025, while the basis of some varieties decreased. For example, the basis of East China oxygen - containing S15530 industrial silicon decreased by 20 yuan to 540 yuan, with a decline of 3.57% [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The spot price of polysilicon remained stable, while the price of battery cells decreased. The main contract of polysilicon futures closed at 54,730 yuan/ton, up 1,415 yuan/ton [2]. - **Tin**: The spot prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze River 1 tin increased by 1,700 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, with a rise of 0.58%. The LME 0 - 3 spread increased by 18.32 US dollars/ton, with a rise of 19.15% [4]. - **Aluminum**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 80 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, with a rise of 0.37%. The price of alumina in various regions remained stable [6]. - **Zinc**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 20 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, with a rise of 0.09%. The import loss was - 4,312 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32.69 yuan/ton [7]. - **Copper**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 375 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, with a rise of 0.43%. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 378.62 yuan/ton, with a rise of 13.42% [8]. - **Nickel**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased by 800 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, with a rise of 0.68%. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 2 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.22% [9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained stable on November 26, 2025. The refined - scrap price difference of some regions changed, such as the refined - scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum increased by 80 yuan/ton, with a rise of 4.57% [11]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained stable at 12,700 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, while the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 100 yuan/ton, with a rise of 0.79% [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The prices of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, etc. decreased slightly on November 26, 2025. For example, the price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 100 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.11% [15]. Monthly Spreads - Different contracts of various metals showed different changes in monthly spreads. For example, in industrial silicon, the spreads of contracts such as 2512 - 2601 remained unchanged; in tin, the spread of 2601 - 2602 increased by 450 yuan/ton, with a rise of 107.14% [1][4]. Fundamental Data Production - **Industrial Silicon**: In November, the national industrial silicon production is expected to decline to around 400,000 tons. In October, the national industrial silicon production was 452,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.46%. The production in Xinjiang increased by 15.94%, while that in Yunnan and Sichuan decreased [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The monthly production in October was 134,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.08%. The weekly production was 27,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.12% [2]. - **Tin**: In October, SMM refined tin production was 16,090 tons, a month - on - month increase of 53.09%. The average operating rate was 66.81%, a month - on - month increase of 53.23% [4]. - **Aluminum**: In October, alumina production was 778,530 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.39%; electrolytic aluminum production was 374,210 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.52% [6]. - **Zinc**: In October, refined zinc production was 617,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.85% [7]. - **Copper**: In October, electrolytic copper production was 1,091,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.62% [8]. - **Nickel**: In October, China's refined nickel production was 35,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.84% [9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In October, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 645,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.42%; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 286,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.06% [11]. - **Stainless Steel**: In October, the production of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel (43 enterprises) was 1,787,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.72% [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In October, lithium carbonate production was 92,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.73% [15]. Import and Export - Different metals have different import and export trends. For example, the import of refined tin in October decreased by 58.55% month - on - month, and the export decreased by 15.33% month - on - month; the import of electrolytic aluminum in October increased by 0.61% month - on - month, and the export decreased by 15.18% month - on - month [4][6]. Operating Rate - The operating rates of different industries also vary. For example, the national operating rate of industrial silicon in October was 68.12%, a month - on - month increase of 9.98%; the operating rate of aluminum profiles was 52.10%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.95% [1][6]. Inventory Changes - Different metals have different inventory trends. For example, the social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 0.37% week - on - week; the SHEF inventory of tin decreased by 0.46% week - on - week [1][4].

Core Viewpoint - The polysilicon market continues to exhibit a weak supply and demand dynamic, with expectations of maintaining a stable but weak operational trend in the short term [1][2]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The transaction price range for n-type recycled polysilicon is between 49,000 to 55,000 CNY/ton, with an average price of 53,200 CNY/ton, remaining flat compared to the previous period [1]. - The transaction price range for n-type granular silicon is between 50,000 to 51,000 CNY/ton, with an average price of 50,500 CNY/ton, also unchanged from the previous period [1]. - The number of mainstream signing enterprises remains at 4-5, with a decrease in signing volume for rod silicon, while granular silicon shows resilience due to its improved quality recognition and cost-effectiveness [1]. Market Stability Factors - The stability in market prices is supported by both supply and demand sides. On the supply side, polysilicon companies are determined to maintain price stability, with two leading companies implementing significant production cuts this month [1]. - There is a clear consensus across the industry chain that price instability could harm the entire chain, contributing to price stability [2]. - Despite production cuts in the silicon wafer segment, downstream companies maintain their procurement plans, particularly for granular silicon, providing a bottom support for prices [1][2]. Price Statistics - The highest and lowest prices for n-type recycled polysilicon are 55,000 CNY/ton and 49,000 CNY/ton, respectively, with no price fluctuation [3]. - The average price for n-type dense material is 49,700 CNY/ton, with no fluctuation reported [3]. - The average price for p-type polysilicon is not specified, indicating no transactions occurred this week [3]. Participating Companies - The price statistics are based on data from nine polysilicon production companies, which account for 89.3% of the domestic total production in Q3 2025 [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the polysilicon market is experiencing a weak supply and demand situation, with stable pricing despite reduced purchasing needs from downstream silicon wafer producers [1][2]. - The average transaction price for n-type polysilicon is reported at 53,200 yuan/ton, with a price range of 49,000 to 55,000 yuan/ton, showing no change from the previous week [1][3]. - The transaction price for n-type granular silicon is reported at 50,500 yuan/ton, with a range of 50,000 to 51,000 yuan/ton, also remaining stable week-on-week [1][3]. Group 2 - The supply side is characterized by a significant reduction in production from leading companies, which has led to a contraction in supply, thereby supporting price stability [2][1]. - Despite the reduction in production from the silicon wafer segment, downstream companies maintain their purchasing plans, particularly for granular silicon, which provides a bottom support for prices [1][2]. - The consensus within the industry is that price instability could harm the entire supply chain, leading to a collective effort to maintain stable pricing [2][1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the spot price is stable, the supply - demand pattern improves during the dry season, but the total inventory is high and lacks driving force. The industrial silicon futures market is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there are relevant capacity - exit policies, the futures price may rise [1][3]. - For polysilicon, both supply and demand have decreased, the overall inventory pressure is large, and the consumer - end performance is average. The futures market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, with large fluctuations, and is expected to be mainly volatile [4][7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On November 25, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2601 opened at 8,940 yuan/ton and closed at 8,960 yuan/ton, a change of 10 yuan/ton (0.11%) from the previous settlement. The position of the 2511 main contract at the close was 263,919 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 40,714 lots, a change of - 810 lots from the previous day [1]. - The industrial silicon spot price was stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,400 - 9,600 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9,600 - 9,900 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,800 - 9,000 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,800 - 9,000 yuan/ton. Silicon prices in various regions were flat [1]. - As of the end of October, the national cumulative power generation installed capacity was 3.75 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 17.3%. Among them, solar power installed capacity was 1.14 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 43.8%; wind power installed capacity was 590 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 21.4%. In the first ten months of 2025, the total new photovoltaic capacity was 253GW [1]. - The consumption - end organic silicon DMC quotation was 13,100 - 13,300 yuan/ton. The current mainstream quotation was around 13,100 - 13,200 yuan/ton. Manufacturers had a strong willingness to support prices, and downstream enterprises actively followed up. The market's confidence in a price increase was enhanced, but the increase needed to be digested. The market was expected to remain stable in the short term [2]. Strategy - Short - term interval operation, and long positions can be taken at low prices for dry - season contracts [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On November 25, 2025, the polysilicon futures main contract 2601 showed a strong - side volatile operation, opening at 53,315 yuan/ton and closing at 54,730 yuan/ton, a 2.79% change from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 129,077 lots (128,427 lots the previous trading day), and the trading volume was 235,600 lots [4]. - The polysilicon spot price weakened slightly. The price of N - type material was 49.60 - 54.90 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory and silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 27.10 (a 1.50% month - on - month change), silicon wafer inventory was 18.72GW (a 1.63% month - on - month change), polysilicon weekly output was 27,100.00 tons (a 1.11% month - on - month change), and silicon wafer output was 12.78GW (a - 2.59% month - on - month change) [4][5]. - For silicon wafers, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.20 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.57 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.25 yuan/piece. Enterprises accelerated the production - reduction rhythm at the end of November, and the OEM orders of specialized factories decreased significantly, so the actual production schedule for the month was likely to be lower than expected [5]. - For battery cells, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 was about 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 was about 0.29 yuan/W (- 0.01 yuan/W), Topcon G12 was 0.29 yuan/W, Topcon210RN was 0.28 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery was 0.37 yuan/W [5]. - For components, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.66 - 0.68 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.68 - 0.69 yuan/W [6]. Strategy - Short - term interval operation, expected to fluctuate in the range of 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [7].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年11月26日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 | | | | | 供给端来看 ， | 上周工业硅供应量为9 | . | 1万吨 ， | 环比持平 。 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 需求端来看 ， | 上周工业硅需求为8万吨 | | 环比减少4 ， | 76% . . | 需求持续低迷 | 多 . | | | | | | | | 晶硅库存为27 1万吨 . | 处于低位 ， ， | | 硅片亏损 ， | 电池片亏损 | 组 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The current silicon market maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand, and there is still pressure on the upside of silicon prices. The downstream replenishment willingness for polysilicon is limited, and there is significant pressure for the spot price to continue rising, which restricts the upside space of the futures market [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Price Information - The average price of non-oxygenated 553 (East China) remained unchanged at 9,350 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) decreased by 0.51% to 9,750 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose by 0.22% to 8,960 yuan/ton, and the basis (East China 553 - futures main) was 390 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan [1]. Supply and Demand - In terms of supply, the southwest production area has gradually returned to the high-cost period of the dry season. Some silicon enterprises stopped furnaces and production at the end of October, and the silicon enterprise start-up rate significantly declined. In Yunnan, only integrated enterprises or those with long-term order demand are in production, while the furnace start-up in the north is relatively stable. After offsetting increases and decreases, it is expected that the industrial silicon output in November will drop below 400,000 tons. In terms of demand, polysilicon enterprises continue to reduce production, silicone enterprises have reached a joint production reduction mechanism, which may weaken the demand for industrial silicon, and silicon-aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed. The overall willingness of downstream enterprises to stock up at low levels is limited [1]. Investment Strategy - The trading strategy is range operation, and attention should be paid to the subsequent new warehouse receipt registration and the actual start-up of silicon enterprises [1]. Polysilicon Price Information - The price of N-type polysilicon material remained unchanged at 51 yuan/kg, the price of N-type re-feeding material decreased by 0.10% to 52.25 yuan/kg, the price of N-type mixed material and N-type granular silicon remained unchanged at 50.5 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract rose by 2.65% to 54,730 yuan/ton, and the basis was -3,730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,415 yuan [1]. Supply and Demand - In terms of supply, polysilicon enterprises continue to reduce production, and some polysilicon factories may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting increases and decreases, it is expected that the output in October will still increase slightly, and the output in November is expected to decrease to about 120,000 tons month-on-month. In terms of demand, the polysilicon market trading is relatively light, with few new transactions. Downstream enterprises have strong resistance to high-priced resources, and the market is waiting for industry policy guidance [1]. Investment Strategy - The trading strategy is to wait and see for the time being. Attention should be paid to the subsequent implementation of the polysilicon platform and the evolution of macro sentiment, and those with previous long positions should pay attention to profit protection [1]. Other Information - On November 21, the Beijing Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on the electricity price bidding for new energy incremental projects in the city in 2026. The electricity volume scale newly included in the mechanism in 2026 is 1.2 billion kWh, and the upper limit of the bidding price for wind power and photovoltaic power is 0.3598 yuan/kWh [1]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) released an Australian photovoltaic application report, showing that the newly installed photovoltaic capacity in Australia in 2024 was 5.2GW, and the total national installed capacity reached 40GW, including 26.1GW in distributed systems and 13.4GW in centralized systems. The newly installed capacity in 2024 has exceeded the historical cumulative installed capacity of 5.1GW in Australia as of the end of 2015 [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon are weak, with prices facing upward pressure. For industrial silicon, supply is contracting and costs are rising, providing some support for prices, but weak demand restricts upward movement. For polysilicon, there is a game between "weak reality" and "strong expectation", and prices are under pressure [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Chain Price Review - **Industrial Silicon Futures and Spot Prices**: The closing price of the industrial silicon futures main contract on November 21, 2025, was 8,960 yuan/ton, down 0.67% from November 14. Spot prices of different grades in various regions showed minor fluctuations, with some prices rising slightly [10]. - **Polysilicon and Related Product Prices**: The closing price of the polysilicon futures main contract on November 21, 2025, was 53,360 yuan/ton, down 1.27% from November 14. The prices of N - type polysilicon materials remained stable, while the prices of some silicon wafers, battery cells, and components decreased [10]. - **Raw Material Prices**: Silica prices remained stable due to downstream rigid - demand procurement. Electricity prices in the southwest region increased during the flat - dry season. Electrode prices remained stable due to weak supply and demand. Silicon coal prices increased due to cost drivers, while petroleum coke prices remained stable [16][22][27][33]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: In November, industrial silicon supply is expected to fall below 400,000 tons, a decrease of about 12%, in line with the same period in previous years. The opening of furnaces in the southwest region decreased, while the output in the northwest region was stable with a slight increase [4]. - **Demand**: In the polysilicon industry, production is expected to decline. The organic silicon industry has a strong willingness to support prices, with a consensus on stepped production cuts, resulting in a decrease in demand for industrial silicon. The silicon - aluminum alloy industry has no production increase or decrease plans, and its operation is stable [4]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week's production was 27,100 tons, a week - on - week increase. In November, due to maintenance and production cuts in Sichuan and Yunnan and some increases in Inner Mongolia, the total production is expected to drop to about 120,000 tons [4]. - **Demand**: The front - end installation rush in the first half of the year overdrafted some demand in the second half. Domestic bidding projects decreased, and overseas demand declined, putting pressure on the component side. If domestic demand remains weak, component production cuts may increase. Battery cell inventories are accumulating, and prices are generally falling. Silicon wafer inventories are also increasing, and production in November is expected to decline [4]. 3.3 Inventory Analysis - **Industrial Silicon**: Except for some silicon enterprises in the southwest that have reduced production, most manufacturers are in normal production. Due to relatively low prices, silicon enterprises are less willing to sell, and inventories are accumulating. As of November 20, the total industrial silicon social inventory (social inventory + delivery warehouse) was 548,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,000 tons [4][131]. - **Polysilicon**: As of November 20, the total polysilicon inventory was 271,000 tons, and the silicon wafer inventory was 18.72 GW. As of November 21, the registered polysilicon warehouse receipts were 7,500 lots [4]. 3.4 Market Outlook - **Industrial Silicon**: Driven by the sentiment of the organic silicon industry, industrial silicon prices briefly rose last week. Fundamentally, supply contraction and cost increases provide some support for silicon prices, but weak demand restricts upward movement. It is expected that silicon prices will remain range - bound in the short term, with an operating range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [4]. - **Polysilicon**: There is a game between "weak reality" and "strong expectation". Downstream prices are being lowered due to poor demand and inventory pressure. The overall market sentiment is pessimistic, and polysilicon prices are under pressure. Attention should be paid to protecting the profits of previous long positions [4].