一、行情回顾与展望 多晶硅日报 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 行业 日期 2025 年 12 月 17 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅/多晶 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - The current stage of spot supply and demand for copper is still tight, and there is a probability that the upward trend of Shanghai copper will pause. The alumina market is in significant surplus, and the rebound space of the alumina disk is limited before large - scale production cuts. The zinc market has a relatively balanced supply - demand relationship, and there is an opportunity for a cross - market reverse arbitrage strategy. The lead market is affected by overseas surplus pressure, and the price of Shanghai lead may be supported at 16,800 yuan/ton. The nickel and stainless - steel market has a weak fundamental situation, and it is more reasonable to short at high positions. The tin market emphasizes high - position risks. The lithium carbonate market has strong demand, and the price is in a strong shock. The industrial silicon market has a complex situation with supply reduction expectations and price fluctuations. The polysilicon market is in a game between strong policy expectations and weak real - world fundamentals, with wide - range fluctuations [1] Summary by Directory Copper - **Market situation**: LME copper briefly reached nearly $12,000, with short - term fluctuations around $11,900. The Fed cut interest rates in December, and the market is concerned about the short - term balance - sheet expansion. Domestic high copper prices suppress consumption, and the social inventory of SW copper has increased to 164,500 tons. The goal of the price increase promoted by funds has basically been achieved, and some investment banks may raise the 2028 price target. The global visible inventory is high, and the surplus of refined copper is relatively stable in the UK market [1] - **Trend**: The current spot supply and demand are tight, and there is a probability that the upward trend of Shanghai copper will pause. Pay close attention to the phased reduction of positions, and be cautious about the performance of the M10 moving average. Old orders and new enterprises should wait and see, and pay attention to the support of the 40 - day line [1] Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The Axis mine in Guinea, which has been shut down for half a year, has been approved to restart, and there is an expectation of lower ore prices. The domestic alumina operating capacity remains at a historical high of 96 million tons, and there has been no long - term production cut. The alumina balance is in significant surplus, and the inventory has increased by 102,000 tons to 4.585 million tons. After the economic meeting, relevant domestic themes have fermented, but the fundamental pressure is difficult to change, and the rebound space of the alumina disk is limited before large - scale production cuts [1] - **Aluminum**: Overseas monetary policy is loosening, and there is policy expectation after the domestic economic meeting. The supply - demand relationship in the aluminum market is relatively balanced, and the price is high. The short - term shock - strengthening trend of Shanghai aluminum remains unchanged. Pay attention to the support of the 40 - day line, and if it is broken, the trend will turn to shock [1] Zinc - **Market situation**: After the Fed cut interest rates and expanded the balance sheet last week, the supply pressure of zinc has weakened, and the export window has opened. The LME zinc inventory has increased to 64,500 tons. The IME plans to limit positions on key contracts on July 6, and the term structure of LME zinc has changed from B to C. The domestic refineries' zinc ingot supply is expected to decline by about 25,000 tons in December, and the social inventory of zinc has decreased to 128,200 tons. Some projects are rushing to work at the end of the year, and the orders for galvanized pipes are good [1] - **Trend**: The inventory structure at home and abroad has converged, and there is an opportunity for a cross - market reverse arbitrage strategy. Shanghai zinc is not regarded as a short - selling variety in the short term, and pay attention to the support at 22,800 yuan/ton [1] Lead - **Market situation**: The export window is open, and the overseas surplus pressure is transmitted to the domestic market. The LME lead inventory is at a high level of 235,000 tons, and the 0 - 3 - month spot is at a discount of $31.61/ton. The domestic lead concentrate market has tight supply, and some refineries are under maintenance. The downstream demand for lead - acid batteries is good at the end of the year, but the export is affected by anti - dumping duties [1] - **Trend**: The supply of lead ingots at home and abroad is sufficient, and the price of Shanghai lead may be supported at 16,800 yuan/ton [1] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market situation**: Shanghai nickel is under pressure and falling, and the stainless - steel price has also declined. The spot trading is extremely sluggish, and the inventory of nickel and stainless steel has increased. The premium of Jinchuan nickel is high, and the support of high - nickel iron price rebound is weakening [1] - **Trend**: The inventory of Shanghai nickel is increasing, and the fundamental situation is weak. It is more reasonable to short at high positions [1] Tin - **Market situation**: The price of tin has continued to rise last week, showing the characteristics of "increasing positions and rising, reducing positions and adjusting", mainly driven by domestic funds. The market is concerned about the security situation in the east of Congo (Kinshasa) and northern Nigeria. The export volume of Indonesia in November reached a high of 2,458 tons. The potential consumption of the tin market may show a growth rate similar to that of copper and aluminum affected by the long - term global macro - economic trend, but the consumption structure will be more concentrated. The domestic and foreign tin inventories have increased [1] - **Trend**: Continue to emphasize high - position risks, and hold short - call options as the 2001 contract options are about to expire [1] Lithium Carbonate - **Market situation**: The lithium carbonate futures have rebounded in shock, and the market trading is active. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 35,200 yuan/ton. The demand side is strong, with expected bright performance in new - energy vehicle sales in December and a supply - demand boom in the energy - storage market. The production of lithium carbonate in December is expected to increase slightly month - on - month [1] - **Trend**: The price of lithium carbonate futures is in a strong shock, and the short - selling side is relatively disadvantaged [1] Industrial Silicon - **Market situation**: The price of the main contract of industrial silicon has fallen to 8,200 yuan/ton, and then rebounded to 8,400 yuan/ton. Some enterprises in Xinjiang plan to stop production. The cost of petroleum coke has slightly decreased, and other costs are stable. The supply is expected to decrease due to weather and other reasons. The demand for polysilicon is stable, and the inventory of industrial silicon has increased by 3,000 tons to 661,000 tons [1] - **Trend**: The establishment of the industrial silicon platform boosts sentiment [1] Polysilicon - **Market situation**: The spot price of polysilicon has continued to rise, and the 05 main contract is expected to break through the 3,000 - yuan/ton mark. The production of polysilicon in December has a limited month - on - month decline, and the production scheduling of silicon wafers has decreased by 16.5% month - on - month. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers has increased by 2,000 tons to 293,000 tons [1] - **Trend**: The futures and spot prices show different trends. The market is in a game between strong policy expectations and weak real - world fundamentals, and it will maintain wide - range fluctuations before the acquisition plan is further implemented [1]

Core Viewpoint - The newly established polysilicon integration platform, Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Guanghe Qiancheng"), held its first meeting to discuss market price maintenance and production strategies among key stakeholders in the Chinese photovoltaic industry [1][4]. Group 1: Company Formation and Structure - Guanghe Qiancheng was officially established with a registered capital of 3 billion RMB, located in Chaoyang District, Beijing, and its business scope includes technology services, consulting, and management [3]. - The meeting included prominent figures such as Liu Hanyuan, Chairman of Tongwei Group, and Zhu Gongshan, Chairman of GCL Group, along with leaders from the China Photovoltaic Industry Association [2]. Group 2: Market Price and Production Strategy - Discussions emphasized the importance of adhering to national regulations that prevent polysilicon manufacturers from selling below their total cost price, including taxes [4]. - It was noted that the expected tax-inclusive price for polysilicon in December 2025 is projected to be slightly higher than current market prices, which range from 45,000 to 55,000 RMB per ton [4]. - Forecasts for 2026 suggest total sales may not exceed 1.2 million tons, with first-quarter sales projected at around 200,000 tons [5]. Group 3: Production Capacity and Recommendations - Participants agreed on the need to further compress production and sales volumes starting December 2025, especially if prior commitments were not fully utilized [6]. - The meeting highlighted the increasing collaboration among major domestic polysilicon companies, although specific actions regarding the acquisition of excess production capacity were not detailed [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - For industrial silicon, the current valuation is low, and if there are relevant capacity exit policies, the futures market may have room to rise. It is expected to operate in a short - term range [1][2]. - For polysilicon, the supply - demand situation is poor with increasing inventory and general consumer - end performance. The market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality. The expectation of industry self - disciplined production cuts is strengthening, and the price is expected to fluctuate upwards, but attention should be paid to the target price of 60,000 yuan/ton [3][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - On December 15, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated upwards. The main contract 2605 opened at 8505 yuan/ton and closed at 8350 yuan/ton, a change of 95 yuan/ton (1.15%) from the previous day's settlement. The position of the main contract 2601 at the close was 200,749 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts on December 14 was 8743 lots, a change of 124 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon was basically stable. The price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon in East China was 9100 - 9300 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9500 - 9800 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8600 - 8900 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8600 - 8900 yuan/ton. The silicon prices in various regions were flat, and the price of 97 silicon was stable [1]. - As of December 12, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 561,000 tons, an increase of 3000 tons from the previous week. Among them, the inventory in social ordinary warehouses was 136,000 tons, an increase of 5000 tons from the previous week, and the inventory in social delivery warehouses was 425,000 tons, a decrease of 2000 tons from the previous week [1]. - The quotation of silicone DMC was 13,500 - 13,700 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy** - The industrial silicon futures market is mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment and policy - related news. It is necessary to pay attention to whether there will be relevant capacity exit policies. Currently, it is recommended to operate within a short - term range [2]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis** - On December 15, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures fluctuated widely. It opened at 57,000 yuan/ton and closed at 58,030 yuan/ton, a change of 3.61% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 142,844 lots (126,436 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 314,139 lots [3]. - The spot price of polysilicon weakened slightly. The price of N - type material was 49.60 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and the price of n - type granular silicon was 49.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 29.30 (with a month - on - month change of 0.55%), the silicon wafer inventory was 23.30GW (with a month - on - month change of 9.39%), the weekly polysilicon output was 25,100 tons (with a month - on - month change of - 2.71%), and the silicon wafer output was 12.15GW (with a month - on - month change of 1.67%) [3]. - For silicon wafers, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.18 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.48 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.23 yuan/piece [3]. - For battery cells, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W; PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan/W; TopconM10 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.28 yuan/W; Topcon210RN battery cells were 0.28 yuan/W; HJT210 half - piece battery cells were 0.37 yuan/W [4]. - For components, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.65 - 0.67 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W [4][5]. - **Strategy** - The supply - demand situation of polysilicon is poor with high inventory pressure. After the establishment of the platform company, attention should be paid to the intensity of production and sales restrictions. It is expected that the price will fluctuate upwards, but attention should be paid to the 60,000 yuan/ton target price [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon spot prices are stable, while futures prices opened high and closed low. The market is expected to remain in a weak supply - demand situation in December. The price is expected to fluctuate between 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton, with potential to reach 10000 yuan/ton if production drops significantly, or fall to 7500 yuan/ton under certain negative scenarios. Attention should be paid to position management [1]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures prices are oscillating higher. There is a contradiction between the strong futures market and weak spot demand. The current price is in a high - level oscillation. Future trends depend on the extent of production cuts. The trading strategy for the main contract (now 2605) is to wait and see [3]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is tight, but Indonesian exports increased in November, causing tin prices to decline. However, considering the strong fundamentals, tin prices are expected to remain strong within the year. It is recommended to hold long positions and consider buying on dips [5]. Nickel - The nickel market is under fundamental pressure. Macro factors have limited impact on nickel prices. The Indonesian nickel ore benchmark price has fallen, and domestic inventory is increasing rapidly. The price is expected to be weak in the short - term, with the main contract reference range of 110000 - 118000 yuan/ton [7]. Stainless Steel - Stainless steel is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The supply pressure is slightly relieved, and nickel - iron prices have stopped falling, providing cost support. However, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the inventory reduction is insufficient. The price is expected to be weak in the short - term, with the main contract reference range of 12200 - 12800 yuan/ton [8]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices rose overall. The fundamentals are in a situation of strong supply and demand. The market is affected by news such as the slow resumption of production of large mines. The price may be strong in the short - term under the influence of capital sentiment, but attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand improvement in the off - season [10]. Aluminum and Alumina - Alumina supply is in an oversupply situation, with high inventory suppressing prices. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom, with the main contract reference range of 2450 - 2700 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices are expected to be strong in the short - term but may face a pullback. The main contract of Shanghai Aluminum is expected to oscillate between 21700 - 22400 yuan/ton [12]. Zinc - Zinc prices are oscillating. The supply side is gradually shifting from loose to tight, and demand has shown structural improvement. The short - term Shanghai zinc price may be stronger than the London zinc price. Attention should be paid to the inflection point of TC and changes in refined zinc inventory, with the main contract support at 23000 - 23200 yuan/ton [15]. Copper - Copper prices are oscillating at a high level. The high price is driven by supply - inventory imbalance and macro factors. The supply side may face tightness, and the demand is being suppressed. The price is expected to have limited downside space, with the main contract support at 90000 - 91000 yuan/ton [16]. Aluminum Alloy - Cast aluminum alloy prices are oscillating strongly, with strong cost support but weak demand. The price is expected to oscillate narrowly at a high level, with the main contract reference range of 20700 - 21400 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the improvement in scrap aluminum supply and downstream purchasing rhythm [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The prices of various types of industrial silicon remained stable on December 12 compared to December 11, while the basis decreased significantly. For example, the basis of East China oxygen - containing S15530 industrial silicon decreased by 16.39% [1]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts showed various changes, such as the 2601 - 2602 spread decreasing by 150.00% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: National industrial silicon production decreased by 11.17%, and the national operating rate decreased by 4.84%. Organic silicon DMC production increased by 3.82%, while polysilicon production decreased by 14.48% [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: Most inventories increased slightly on a weekly or daily basis, such as the Xinjiang factory - level inventory increasing by 3.39% on a weekly basis [1]. Polysilicon - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The average prices of N - type polysilicon products remained stable, while the N - type material basis decreased by 41.13% [3]. - **Futures Prices and Monthly Spreads**: The main contract of polysilicon futures rose by 2.56%. The spreads between different contracts showed significant fluctuations, such as the near - month to the first - continuous contract spread decreasing by 1206.25% [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly silicon wafer production increased by 1.67%, and monthly polysilicon production decreased by 14.48%. Polysilicon imports increased by 11.96%, and exports decreased by 27.99% [3]. - **Inventory Changes**: Polysilicon inventory increased by 0.69%, and silicon wafer inventory increased by 9.39% [3]. Tin - **Spot Prices and Basis**: SMM 1 tin and Yangtze 1 tin prices decreased by 1.76% on December 16 compared to the previous value, and the LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 22.73% [5]. - **Import - Export Parity and Ratios**: The import loss decreased by 8.14%, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.92 [5]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts showed different changes, such as the 2601 - 2602 spread decreasing by 18.06% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, tin ore imports increased by 33.49%, and SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09%. Refined tin imports decreased by 58.55%, and exports decreased by 15.33% [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: SHEF inventory increased by 7.66%, and social inventory increased by 5.59% [5]. Nickel - **Prices and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel and 1 Jinchuan nickel prices decreased by 0.72% and 0.70% respectively. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 1.92% [7]. - **Electrolytic Nickel Production Costs**: The production cost of integrated MHP - based electrolytic nickel increased by 0.19%, while that of integrated high - grade nickel matte - based electrolytic nickel decreased by 3.60% [7]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts showed small changes, such as the 2602 - 2603 spread increasing by 20 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production decreased by 9.38%, and imports decreased by 65.66%. SHFE inventory increased by 5.10%, and social inventory increased by 3.73% [7]. Stainless Steel - **Prices and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained stable, while that of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.39%. The spot - futures price difference increased by 20.99% [8]. - **Raw Material Prices**: The prices of most raw materials remained stable, such as the average price of Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (CIF) remaining at 57 US dollars/wet ton [8]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts changed slightly, such as the 2602 - 2603 spread decreasing by 10 yuan/ton [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production decreased by 0.72%, and Indonesia's production increased by 0.36%. Stainless steel imports increased by 3.18%, and exports decreased by 14.43% [8]. - **Inventory Changes**: The 300 - series social inventory in Wuxi and Foshan increased by 0.69%, and the SHFE warehouse receipt decreased by 0.30% [8]. Lithium Carbonate - **Prices and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices increased by 0.69% and 0.71% respectively. The basis increased by 0.69% [10]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts showed different changes, such as the 2601 - 2602 spread increasing by 120 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, lithium carbonate production increased by 3.35%, and demand increased by 5.11%. In October, imports increased by 21.86%, and exports increased by 63.05% [10]. - **Inventory Changes**: In November, the total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 23.36%, the downstream inventory decreased by 21.13%, and the smelter inventory decreased by 27.19% [10]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Prices and Spreads**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 1.54%, and the alumina average price remained stable. The electrolytic aluminum import loss decreased by 1977 yuan/ton [12]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spreads between different aluminum contracts showed various changes, such as the AL 2601 - 2602 spread decreasing by 35 yuan/ton [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, alumina production decreased by 4.44%, domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 2.82%, and overseas production decreased by 3.50%. In October, electrolytic aluminum imports increased by 0.61%, and exports decreased by 15.18% [12]. - **Inventory Changes**: China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 0.17%, and the aluminum rod social inventory increased by 8.58% [12]. Zinc - **Prices and Basis**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 0.97%, and the premium increased by 5 yuan/ton [15]. - **Import - Export Parity and Ratios**: The import loss decreased by 813.46 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased by 0.03 [15]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts showed different changes, such as the 2601 - 2602 spread decreasing by 10 yuan/ton [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, refined zinc production decreased by 3.56%. In October, imports decreased by 16.94%, and exports increased by 243.79% [15]. - **Inventory Changes**: China's zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased by 7.57%, and LME inventory increased by 4.12% [15]. Copper - **Prices and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 1.42%, and the premium increased by 80 yuan/ton [16]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts changed, such as the 2602 - 2603 spread decreasing by 30 yuan/ton [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.05%, and in October, imports decreased by 15.61%. The import copper concentrate index decreased by 0.51% [16]. - **Inventory Changes**: The domestic social inventory increased by 2.62%, the bonded - area inventory decreased by 2.58%, and the SHFE inventory increased by 0.54% [16]. Aluminum Alloy - **Prices and Spreads**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price decreased by 0.69%. The spreads between different contracts showed different changes, such as the 2601 - 2602 spread decreasing by 25 yuan/ton [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, recycled aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 5.74%, and primary aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 5.84%. In October, imports decreased by 7.06%, and exports increased by 31.49% [18]. - **Inventory Changes**: The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 1.08% [18].

Copper - Overnight copper prices fluctuated and then retreated, with domestic refined copper imports maintaining losses. The New York Federal Reserve reported a significant drop in the general business conditions index by about 23 points to -3.9, indicating a contraction in manufacturing, although the outlook for the next six months improved significantly, with the outlook index rising 16.6 points to its highest level since the beginning of the year, reflecting increased optimism about orders and shipments [3][9] - Domestic economic data for November showed resilient exports but weak domestic demand, with consumption declining rapidly month-on-month and fixed asset and real estate investments under pressure, highlighting the need for policy intervention [3][9] - LME copper inventory decreased by 25 tons to 165,875 tons, while COMEX copper warehouse receipts increased by 1,995 tons to 410,792 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts rose by 9,663 tons to 42,226 tons [3][9] Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel fell by 2.22% to $14,295 per ton, while SHFE nickel dropped by 2.15% to 112,530 yuan per ton. LME inventory increased by 360 tons to 253,392 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts rose by 2,622 tons to 37,872 tons [10] - The stainless steel market showed improved transaction sentiment, with total social inventory of stainless steel in major markets decreasing by 1.55% week-on-week to 1,063,600 tons [10] - The nickel price is under pressure due to weak demand and inventory accumulation, with attention on overseas industrial policies and macroeconomic sentiment [10] Alumina & Aluminum - Overnight alumina prices showed a slight decline, with AO2601 settling at 2,527 yuan per ton, down 0.75%. SHFE aluminum also experienced a slight decline, with AL2602 closing at 21,865 yuan per ton, down 0.11% [11] - The market is currently negotiating new quarterly order prices for alumina, with companies showing a strong willingness to maintain production despite losses [11] - The aluminum price is expected to continue to run at high levels due to supply constraints and the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [11] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices showed a slight increase, with the main contract settling at 8,350 yuan per ton, up 1.15%. Polysilicon prices also increased, with the main contract at 58,030 yuan per ton, up 3.61% [13] - The market is currently experiencing a disconnect between spot and futures prices due to excess supply in crystalline silicon and a shortage of warehouse receipts [13] - The trading environment remains cautious, with a focus on the dynamics of production capacity and market responses to recent production cuts [13] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures rose by 1.4% to 101,060 yuan per ton, with both battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium carbonate prices increasing by 650 yuan per ton [14] - Weekly production increased by 59 tons to 21,998 tons, with expectations for a 3% increase in December production [14] - The market is experiencing a reduction in inventory levels, with social inventory continuing to decline, indicating strong demand despite potential seasonal price weaknesses [14]

Group 1: Report Information - Report date: December 16, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Performance and Outlook - Market performance: The price of the main polysilicon contract rose and then fell. The closing price of the PS2605 contract was 58,030 yuan/ton, with a 3.61% increase. The trading volume was 314,139 lots, and the open interest was 142,844 lots, with a net increase of 16,408 lots. The net long positions of the top 20 increased by 11,262 lots, and the net short positions of the top 20 increased by 10,425 lots [4] - Spot price: The transaction price range of polysilicon n-type re-feeding material was 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The transaction price range of n-type granular silicon was 50,000 - 51,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 50,500 yuan/ton, also unchanged from the previous period [4] - Future outlook: The fundamentals are weak, but it is not the main line of futures game. The storage platform provides more policy imagination space, and long funds are more sensitive. Unconfirmed news says that the production capacity will be reduced from 3.2 million tons to less than 1.5 million tons. The annual demand is expected to be less than 1.2 million tons in the annual report, and the production capacity will be effectively utilized. However, it is unconfirmed and there are no specific details. The price center is expected to move up significantly, but in the short term, it is still facing the negative feedback of weak and further shrinking downstream to drive the spot price to break through 60,000 yuan. The futures price has risen and then fallen continuously, and it is expected to run cautiously and strongly [4] Group 3: Market News - On December 15, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 3,640 lots, unchanged from the previous trading day [5] - Xinjiang Jinnuo New Energy Industry Development Co., Ltd.'s "Jinnuo" brand and Xinjiang Eastern Hope New Energy Co., Ltd.'s "Eastern Hope" brand have been added as registered brands for polysilicon futures, effective from the date of the announcement [5] - A polysilicon production capacity integration and acquisition platform named Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd. was established on December 9, 2025, with a registered capital of 3 billion yuan [5]

平台公司提振，多晶硅偏强震荡 工业硅/多晶硅 20251215 博士后工作站 | 宏观研究 | 大宗商品 周贵升 从业资格证：F3036194 投资咨询证：Z0015986 工业硅 价格：现货方面，本周工业硅现货价格偏弱。截至2025年12月12日，新疆工业硅553#通氧价格为8800元/吨，环比上 周下跌100元/吨。期货方面，本周主力合约大幅走低，截至12月12日主力合约收8390元/吨。 供应：新疆地区因上周新增硅炉产量释放，目前硅价低位北方大厂有协商自律意愿，且冬季空气污染多发，石河子重 污染天气预警对硅企生产有所影响，关注开工变化情况；云南地区开工维持低位；四川地区在产硅企季节性减产，在 产硅企稀少。整体而言，工业硅产量环比小幅回落。 需求：多晶硅周度开工基本稳定，周内有部分粉单订单招标；有机硅开工小幅下降，下游持稳为主；铝合金企业开工 率小幅下降，重庆地区因天气污染有减产。出口方面，10月工业硅出口4.51万吨，环比减少36%，同比减少31%。 成本：本周工业硅成本暂稳。 库存：SMM统计12月11日工业硅全国社会库存共计56.1万吨，较上周增加0.3万吨。 后市研判：目前工业硅供需偏弱，高库存去 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was weak last Friday, and the prices of finished steel products showed a weak and volatile trend. The terminal demand remains weak, and the inventory pressure of hot-rolled coils is prominent. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the bottom range. With the approaching of winter storage, attention should be paid to winter storage policies and price guidance [2]. - The supply of iron ore has slightly increased, while the demand has decreased, and the inventory has continued to rise. The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the support level of 750 yuan/ton for the weighted contract [5]. - The market is relatively optimistic about the black sector and domestic policies. It is recommended to pay attention to whether there are any unexpected situations, as well as the inflection points of sentiment and prices [9]. - The supply and demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, while that of ferrosilicon remains basically balanced. The future market trends of these two products will be mainly influenced by the direction of the black sector and cost increases [10]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to be weak in the short term, and it may rebound if the sentiment of "anti-involution" related commodities improves. Attention should be paid to new supply-side disturbances in the northwest [14]. - The price of polysilicon is expected to be affected by the "anti-involution" policy and the weak supply and demand situation. Attention should be paid to the pressure level of 60,000 yuan for the futures contract [16]. - The float glass market is in a state of weak supply-demand balance and is expected to continue to show a narrow-range fluctuation trend in the short term [19]. - The price of soda ash is expected to continue to decline under pressure in the short term. Attention should be paid to the impact of enterprise maintenance schedules and inventory changes on the market [21]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3,060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton (-0.29%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 43,097 tons, a net increase of 2,418 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.607057 million lots, a net increase of 4,982 lots. The spot prices in Tianjin and Shanghai remained unchanged [1]. - The closing price of the hot-rolled coil main contract was 3,232 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton (-0.18%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 108,128 tons, a net decrease of 886 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.190487 million lots, a net increase of 42,139 lots. The spot price in Lecong decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while that in Shanghai remained unchanged [1]. Strategy Views - The production of rebar decreased significantly this week, and the inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral to stable overall performance. The production of hot-rolled coils continued to decline, the apparent demand decreased slightly, and it was more difficult to reduce inventory. The factory inventory also increased this week [2]. - The central economic work conference proposed to focus on stabilizing the real estate market, which will provide some support for steel demand, but the steel consumption related to real estate will remain weak [2]. Iron Ore Market Quotes - The closing price of the iron ore main contract (I2605) was 760.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.46% (+3.50). The position decreased by 2,568 lots to 465,500 lots. The weighted position was 882,300 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 782 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 70.00 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 8.43% [4]. Strategy Views - The overseas iron ore shipments increased slightly in the latest period. The shipments from Australia increased, while those from Brazil decreased. The shipments from non-mainstream countries reached a new high for the year, and the near-term arrivals decreased [5]. - The daily average pig iron output decreased to below 2.3 million tons. The profitability of steel mills decreased slightly, and the port inventory continued to rise [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - On December 12, the manganese silicon main contract (SM601) closed up 0.32% at 5,730 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5,700 yuan/ton, with a basis of 160 yuan/ton [8]. - The ferrosilicon main contract (SF603) closed up 0.96% at 5,470 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5,600 yuan/ton, with a basis of 130 yuan/ton [8]. Strategy Views - The supply and demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, but most of these factors have been reflected in the price. The supply and demand structure of ferrosilicon remains basically balanced [10]. - The future market trends of these two products will be mainly influenced by the direction of the black sector and cost increases, especially the potential impact of sudden changes in the manganese ore market [10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Quotes - The closing price of the industrial silicon futures main contract (SI2605) was 8,390 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.94% (+160). The weighted contract position decreased by 35,281 lots to 459,941 lots. The spot price of 553 non-oxygenated silicon in East China remained unchanged at 9,200 yuan/ton, with a basis of 810 yuan/ton [12]. - The closing price of the polysilicon futures main contract (PS2605) was 57,190 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.56% (+1,425). The weighted contract position increased by 4,484 lots to 269,692 lots. The average spot prices of N-type granular silicon, dense material, and reclaimed material remained unchanged, with a basis of -4,890 yuan/ton [15]. Strategy Views - The production of industrial silicon has reached a bottleneck in decline, and the demand has weakened. The price is expected to be weak in the short term and may rebound if the sentiment of related commodities improves [14]. - The production of polysilicon is expected to continue to decline in December, but the decline may be limited. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is difficult to relieve. Attention should be paid to the pressure level of 60,000 yuan for the futures contract [16]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Quotes - The glass main contract closed at 964 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, a decrease of 2.03% (-20). The inventory of float glass sample enterprises decreased by 1.215 million boxes (-2.04%) week-on-week. The top 20 long and short positions decreased by 68,030 and 67,811 lots respectively [18]. - The soda ash main contract closed at 1,094 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, a decrease of 2.76% (-31). The inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 443,000 tons (-2.04%) week-on-week. The top 20 long and short positions decreased by 54,680 and 61,494 lots respectively [20]. Strategy Views - The supply of glass decreased due to cold repairs, and the market sales were supported to some extent. However, due to high inventory and weak terminal demand, the upward space was limited. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate narrowly in the short term [19]. - The supply of soda ash increased due to the resumption of production of maintenance enterprises and new capacity releases. The downstream demand has not improved significantly, and the price is expected to continue to decline under pressure in the short term [21].

2025年12月14日 | 镍：过剩结构性转向，关注印尼政策风险 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：供需双弱运行，钢价低位震荡 | 2 | | 工业硅：新疆环保消息发酵，关注实际减产 | 11 | | 多晶硅：预计盘面高位震荡态势 | 11 | | 碳酸锂：基本面新增驱动有限，高位宽幅震荡 | 20 | 国泰君安期货研究周报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 镍：过剩结构性转向，关注印尼政策风险 不锈钢：供需双弱运行，钢价低位震荡 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 12 月 14 日 报告导读： 沪镍基本面：预计镍价低位震荡运行。精炼镍边际转向供需双弱格局，耐蚀合金需求承压，前期重心 下移挤压精炼镍利润，不少企业转向硫酸镍生产，精炼镍累库斜率稍有趋缓，这也将精炼镍过剩的压力进 行结构性转向，硫酸镍与盘面溢价回归收敛。不过，总量过剩矛盾与湿法投产预期或仍然拖累镍价。远端 低成本湿法路径供应增加的预期未改，即中间 ...