Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: July 9, 2025 [2] - Energy and Chemical Research Team: Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), Li Jie (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil), Ren Junchi (PTA, MEG), Peng Haozhou (Urea, Industrial Silicon), Liu Youran (Pulp), Feng Zeren (Glass and Soda Ash) [4] Group 2: Market Quotes Futures Market Quotes | Variety | Opening Price (yuan/ton) | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Highest Price (yuan/ton) | Lowest Price (yuan/ton) | Change (yuan/ton) | Change Rate | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Plastic 2601 | 7223 | 7225 | 7243 | 7219 | 5 | 0.07% | 114,889 | 1,041 | | Plastic 2605 | 7199 | 7200 | 7218 | 7197 | -1 | -0.01% | 1,816 | 35 | | Plastic 2509 | 7255 | 7245 | 7264 | 7240 | -5 | -0.07% | 448,580 | -332 | | PP2601 | 7026 | 7006 | 7031 | 7002 | -17 | -0.24% | 109,780 | -590 | | PP2605 | 7016 | 6997 | 7016 | 6997 | -12 | -0.17% | 3,907 | 194 | | PP2509 | 7066 | 7045 | 7070 | 7042 | -14 | -0.20% | 402,080 | -2,959 | [5] Spot Market Quotes - PE Market: Most PE market prices declined. In North China, some linear PE prices dropped by 20 - 50 yuan/ton, some high - pressure PE prices dropped by 20 - 100 yuan/ton, and some low - pressure PE prices dropped by 20 - 50 yuan/ton. In East China, some high - pressure, low - pressure, and linear PE prices dropped by 10 - 50 yuan/ton. In South China, some linear and low - pressure PE prices dropped by 20 - 50 yuan/ton, and some high - pressure PE prices dropped by 20 - 100 yuan/ton. The LLDPE prices in North China were 7,160 - 7,400 yuan/ton, in East China were 7,200 - 7,650 yuan/ton, and in South China were 7,350 - 7,600 yuan/ton [7]. - Shandong Propylene Market: The market price declined slightly, closing at 6,400 - 6,420 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [7]. - PP Market: The PP market continued to decline slightly, with a range of 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The upstream petrochemical factory prices continued to decline, traders lacked confidence and actively sold goods, and some offers still had discounts. Downstream buyers made rigid purchases, and actual transactions focused on negotiation. The mainstream prices of North China drawn PP in the morning were 7,010 - 7,110 yuan/ton, in East China were 7,000 - 7,180 yuan/ton, and in South China were 7,050 - 7,230 yuan/ton [7]. Group 3: Market Review and Outlook - LianSu L2509 opened higher, fluctuated during the session, and closed lower at 7,245 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.07%), with a trading volume of 210,000 lots and an open interest decrease of 332 to 448,580 lots. The PP main contract closed at 7,045 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan, a decrease of 0.20%, with an open interest decrease of 2,959 lots to 401,300 lots [6]. - The weak and fluctuating futures market increased market wait - and - see sentiment, and the market trading atmosphere was cautious. New production capacities were gradually put into operation, and the intensity of device maintenance decreased, putting pressure on the supply side. In July, there were plans to put into operation the fourth line of Yulong Petrochemical and the first line of Ningbo Daxie Petrochemical for PP, and the second - phase HDPE of Jilin Petrochemical. The overall supply pressure was increasing. The off - season demand lacked support, and downstream buyers mostly maintained a low - inventory strategy. The supply - demand margin was deteriorating, and the market showed a unilateral downward trend [6]. Group 4: Industry News - On July 8, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 780,000 tons (yesterday's inventory was revised to 790,000 tons), a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous working day, a decline of 1.27%. The inventory in the same period last year was 780,000 tons [7]. Group 5: Data Overview - The report includes data on L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventories, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [9][16][17]

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 7 月 8 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一油价低开高走，其中 WTI 8月合约收盘上涨 0.93 美元至 67.93 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 1.39%。布伦特 9 月合约收盘上涨 1.28 美元至 69.58 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 1.87%。SC2508 以 512.0 元/桶收盘，上涨 10.7 元/ | | | | 桶，涨幅为 2.13%。油价无视欧佩克+超预期增产利空，价格偏强 | | | | 运行。宏观方面，美国总统特朗普签署行政令，将对等关税生效 | | | | 日和谈判截止日期从 7 月 9 日延后至 8 月 1 日。此外，他还向 14 | | | | 个国家发出首批关税信函，8 月 1 日起将对日本和韩国加征 25% | | | | 关税，对马来西亚、哈萨克斯坦和突尼斯征收 25%的关税，南非 | | | 原油 | 则将面临 30%的税率，老挝和缅甸将被征收 40%的关税。 | 震荡 | | | 其他受影响国家还包括印尼 32%、孟加拉国 3 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: July 8, 2025 [2] Group 2: Research Team - Energy and Chemical Research Team: Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), Li Jie, CFA (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil), Ren Junchi (PTA, MEG), Peng Haozhou (Urea, Industrial Silicon), Liu Youran (Pulp), Feng Zeren (Glass and Soda Ash) [4] Group 3: Futures Market Quotes | Variety | Opening | Closing | High | Low | Change | Change Rate | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Plastic 2601 | 7232 | 7220 | 7246 | 7204 | -52 | -0.72% | 113848 | 7043 | | Plastic 2605 | 7219 | 7197 | 7221 | 7188 | -69 | -0.95% | 1781 | 197 | | Plastic 2509 | 7272 | 7247 | 7277 | 7229 | -61 | -0.83% | 448912 | 231 | | PP2601 | 7042 | 7021 | 7049 | 7009 | -32 | -0.45% | 110370 | 2632 | | PP2605 | 7016 | 7008 | 7016 | 7007 | -35 | -0.50% | 3713 | 45 | | PP2509 | 7074 | 7057 | 7082 | 7043 | -34 | -0.48% | 405039 | -9584 | [5] Group 4: Market Review and Outlook - Futures Market: The futures market opened low and oscillated weakly, dampening the trading atmosphere. Some factory prices were lowered, and traders quoted prices according to the market. End - users mainly replenished at low prices. New production capacities are being put into operation, and the intensity of device overhauls is weakening, so the supply side is under pressure. In July, there are plans to put into operation the fourth line of Yulong Petrochemical and the first line of Ningbo Daxie Petrochemical for PP, and the second - phase HDPE of Jilin Petrochemical. The overall supply pressure is increasing. The demand is in the off - season and lacks support. Downstream enterprises mostly maintain a low - inventory strategy, and the supply - demand margin is deteriorating, with a unilateral weak downward trend [6] Group 5: Industry News - Inventory: On July 7, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 780,000 tons, a stockpiling of 70,000 tons compared with the previous working day, an increase of 9.86%. The inventory in the same period last year was 795,000 tons. - PE Market: The PE market price was weakly adjusted. The LLDPE price in North China was 7200 - 7450 yuan/ton, in East China was 7230 - 7650 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7350 - 7550 yuan/ton. - Propylene Market: The propylene price on the west coast of the Yellow Sea declined. As of the close, the mainstream price on the west coast of the Yellow Sea was 6370 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price in Lianyungang was 6410 yuan/ton. Some PDH plants in the north are expected to restart, the supply side is bearish, downstream enterprises are waiting and watching, the cross - regional arbitrage space across the west of the Yellow Sea is limited, and the overall trading atmosphere is poor. - PP Market: The PP market declined slightly, with a decline range of 10 - 30 yuan/ton. Most traders mainly sold at reduced prices according to their own situations. The follow - up of new downstream orders was insufficient, and the intention to enter the market was mediocre. The overall trading was average. In the morning, the mainstream price of drawn PP in North China was 7020 - 7120 yuan/ton, in East China was 7020 - 7200 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7060 - 7250 yuan/ton. [7] Group 6: Data Overview - Figures: The report includes figures such as L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [9][16][17]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views Crude Oil - Oil prices are likely to loosen significantly but difficult to form a strong trend. Short - term can be treated with a bearish mindset, with WTI running in the range of [64, 67], Brent in [65, 69], and SC in [480, 520]. Pay attention to the opportunity of the monthly spread declining in the arbitrage end, and capture the opportunity of increased volatility in the options end [2]. Methanol - The inland market has limited short - term decline space supported by centralized maintenance in July. The port market faces dual pressures: the expected import in July reaches 1.2 million tons, and the planned maintenance of coastal MTO will weaken olefin demand, with the port expected to turn to slight inventory accumulation in July [5]. Urea - The short - term core driver comes from the emotional resonance of macro - policies and export expectations. The disk still has room to rise above 10,000 but is restricted by demand - side support [7][8]. Polyolefins (LLDPE and PP) - Both PP and PE show a supply contraction trend. The cost side has more valuation repair, and the July balance sheet shows a de - stocking expectation, but there is still an overall pressure. Short - term, pay attention to the support brought by de - stocking, and for PP, it is recommended to opportunistically arrange short positions when the price rebounds to the 7200 - 7300 range [12]. Styrene - The supply of styrene is expected to increase, while the demand is weakening at the margin, and the port inventory is continuously increasing. The basis has dropped significantly. The short - term supply - demand expectation of styrene is weak, and the cost - side support is limited, so it is expected to gradually face pressure [31]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: The short - term is under pressure, but considering the downstream PTA device production in August, the PXN downward space is limited, and the absolute price may fluctuate with oil prices, showing a short - term shock and a medium - term weakening trend [37]. - **PTA**: The short - term absolute price is under pressure, and it is recommended to be bearish when above 4800, conduct TA9 - 1 reverse arbitrage, and short the PTA processing fee at high levels [37]. - **MEG**: The supply - demand is gradually turning to looseness, and the price is under pressure in the short - term. Pay attention to the pressure at 4400 for EG09 and conduct EG9 - 1 reverse arbitrage at high levels [37]. - **Short - fiber**: The supply - demand is weak on both sides, and the absolute price fluctuates weakly with raw materials. It is recommended to operate in the 6350 - 6650 range for PF08 and expand the processing fee at low levels [37]. - **Bottle - chip**: The supply has an improvement expectation, and the absolute price follows the cost side. It is recommended to operate similarly to PTA, conduct PR8 - 9 positive arbitrage at low levels, and expand the processing fee at the lower edge of the 350 - 600 yuan/ton range [37]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 7, Brent was at $67.78/barrel, down $0.52 or - 0.76% from July 3; WTI was at $65.98/barrel, down $1.02 or - 1.52%. The spreads such as Brent - WTI remained unchanged at 0.00%, while many monthly spreads and other spreads showed declines [2]. - **Driving Factors**: Supply expansion suppresses market sentiment, and the weakening of macro and geopolitical risk premiums reduces the disturbance to the market. OPEC+ plans to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, and the actual increase from April - July is lower than the target. Demand - side inventory has increased, and the macro - situation has relatively eased [2]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 7, MA2601 closed at 2437, down 0.53% from July 3; MA2509 closed at 2399, down 0.62%. The MA91 spread decreased by 2 to - 38, with a change of 5.56% [5]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 3.14% to 35.228%, port inventory increased by 0.47% to 67.4 million tons, and social inventory increased by 1.37% to 102.6 [5]. - **Operating Rates**: Upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 3.19% to 75.61%, and some downstream operating rates such as formaldehyde decreased, while some such as MTBE increased [5]. Urea - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 4, the 01 - contract closed at 1702, up 0.18% from July 3; the 09 - contract closed at 1735, down 0.12%. The UR - MA main - contract spread was - 664, up 13 from July 3 [7]. - **Positions**: The long positions of the top 20 increased by 66 to 125,746, with a change of 0.05%, and the short positions of the top 20 decreased by 6830 to 135,833, with a change of - 4.79% [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily production increased by 1.03% to 19.68 million tons, and the factory - inventory decreased by 7.06% to 101.85 million tons on a weekly basis [7]. Polyolefins (LLDPE and PP) - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 4, L2601 closed at 7243, down 0.26% from July 3; L2509 closed at 7282, down 0.03%. The L2509 - 2601 spread increased by 17 to 39, with a change of 77.27% [12]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory decreased by 2.19% to 43.8 million tons, and PP enterprise inventory decreased by 2.55% to 57.0 million tons [12]. - **Operating Rates**: PE device operating rate increased by 3.95% to 79.5%, and PP device operating rate decreased by 0.4% to 79.3% [12]. Styrene - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 4, styrene East - China spot price was 7650, up 1.1% from July 3; EB futures 2508 closed at 7297, up 0.5%. The EB basis (08) increased by 45 to 353, with a change of 14.6% [31]. - **Inventory**: The East - China port inventory of styrene increased by 7.6% to 9.63 million tons from June 25 to July 2 [31]. - **Operating Rates**: The styrene operating rate increased by 0.8% to 74.5% from June 27 to July 4, while some downstream operating rates such as PS + EPS decreased [31]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 4, PTA East - China spot price was 4835, down 1.1% from July 3; TA futures 2509 closed at 4710, down 0.8%. The PX - naphtha spread decreased by 11 to 261, with a change of - 4.0% [37]. - **Inventory**: MEG port inventory decreased by 12.4% to 54.5 million tons from June 23 to June 30 [37]. - **Operating Rates**: The PTA operating rate remained unchanged at 77.7% from June 27 to July 4, and the MEG comprehensive operating rate decreased by 1.1% to 66.5% [37].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views Market Analysis - In the first half of 2025, the polyolefin prices generally maintained a weak and volatile trend. The domestic capacity expansion cycle continued, with new capacity pressure remaining. The production profits of oil - and coal - based polyolefins were good, leading to continuous increase in production. However, downstream demand support was weak. The market was affected by macro - economic atmosphere, Sino - US trade war, and Middle - East geopolitical conflicts, causing wide - range fluctuations in the market [7]. - In the second half of 2025, the domestic capacity expansion cycle will continue, mainly concentrated in the fourth quarter. The supply pressure will be fully realized, and new capacity pressure will still exist. It is expected that the PE capacity growth rate will reach 8% and the PP capacity growth rate will exceed 10% in the second half of the year. Polyolefin production is expected to continue to increase. The growth rate of downstream plastic product demand is slowing down, and greater consumption stimulus policies are needed to boost market demand. The government is expected to accelerate the governance of low - price and disorderly competition among enterprises, promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity, and boost market sentiment, resulting in a slight increase in polyolefin demand growth rate [8]. Strategy - Short - hedge polyolefins at high prices. In the second half of 2025, the polyolefin capacity expansion cycle will continue, with new capacity pressure remaining. Domestic demand growth is slowing down, and external demand is weak due to tariffs. Polyolefins are expected to continue to decline in a volatile manner. The upstream energy prices are running weakly. The absolute price of coal is at a low level, with limited downside space in valuation. One can short the production profit of coal - based polyolefins [6][9]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Polyolefin Market Review and Basis Structure - In the first half of 2025, the plastic main contract fluctuated and declined in the range of 6900 - 8200 yuan/ton, and the polypropylene main contract fluctuated and declined in the range of 6800 - 7500 yuan/ton. The domestic capacity expansion cycle continued, and downstream demand support was weak. The market was affected by macro - events such as the Sino - US trade war and Middle - East geopolitical conflicts [19][20]. II. Polyolefin Capacity Expansion 1. 2025 China Polyolefin Production Schedule - In the first half of 2025, the new PE capacity was 285 tons/year, mainly concentrated in the second quarter and in full - density and LLDPE units. By the end of the first half, the domestic PE capacity reached 3829 tons/year, with a capacity growth rate of 7.2% in the first half. It is expected that the capacity growth rate will reach 8% in the second half and 15% for the whole year, reaching 4114 tons/year [21]. - In the first half of 2025, the new PP capacity was 196 tons/year, with production in both the first and second quarters, mainly in refinery and coal - chemical units. By the end of the first half, the domestic PP capacity reached 4657 tons/year, with a capacity growth rate of 4% in the first half. It is expected that the capacity growth rate will exceed 10% in the second half, and the capacity is expected to reach 5122 tons/year for the whole year [22]. 2. 2025 Overseas Polyolefin Production Schedule - In the first half of 2025, there were few new overseas polyolefin plant startups, and the main startups are concentrated in the second half, with possible delays in the official startup time [26]. III. Polyolefin Maintenance 1. PE Maintenance Capacity by Process - In the first half of 2025, due to continuous new PE capacity, the over - capacity pattern in the industry continued, and the PE plant maintenance volume remained high. In terms of process, oil - based PE maintenance accounted for 78% of the total maintenance volume, coal - based PE accounted for 1%, and alkane - based PE accounted for 21% [31]. 2. PP Maintenance Capacity by Process - In the first half of 2025, the maintenance volume of upstream petrochemical plants remained high, especially for PDH - based PP plants sensitive to production profits. Oil - based PP maintenance accounted for 41% of the total maintenance volume, coal - based PP accounted for 5%, PDH - based PP accounted for 40%, and other processes accounted for about 14% [36]. 3. Polyolefin Operating Rate Forecast - In the first half of 2025, there were intensive plant maintenance in March, May, and July. The annual average operating rate of PP was lower than that of PE. Among PE varieties, LLDPE had a higher operating rate than the total, while HDPE had a lower one. In terms of process, oil - and coal - based polyolefins had better operating rates, while PDH plants had low operating rates from March to May due to production losses [41][46]. IV. Polyolefin Domestic Supply and Import - Export 1. Domestic Polyolefin Production - In the first half of 2025, the domestic PE production was 15.39 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12%. LLDPE production was 6.74 million tons (about 44% of the total), HDPE was 6.92 million tons (about 45%), and LDPE was 1.72 million tons (about 11%). The domestic LLDPE and HDPE production was more than LDPE, and LDPE was more dependent on imports. - In the first half of 2025, the domestic PP production was 18.65 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12%. PP drawstring production was 5.89 million tons (about 31.6% of the total), PP homopolymer was 11.65 million tons, and PP copolymer was 6.9 million tons [51]. 2. Polyolefin Production Profit and Operating Rate - In the first half of 2025, energy prices were running weakly. Polyolefin production profit was mainly affected by crude oil prices. The profit of crude - oil - based polyolefins was acceptable, while PDH - based PP was in a loss state. The average operating rate of PE was 88.2%, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%, and that of PP was 85.2%, a year - on - year increase of 1.1%. The overall polyolefin operating rate was at a low level, and the capacity utilization rate was expected to decline with continuous capacity expansion [56]. 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Spread and Operating Ratio - In the first half of 2025, the operating ratio of LLDPE was 39%, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%, HDPE was 36.3%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.7%, and LDPE was 9.3%, a year - on - year increase of 0.2%. The operating rate of PE standard products increased significantly, while that of non - standard products decreased, leading to a stronger spread between non - standard and standard PE products. - In the first half of 2025, the operating ratio of PP drawstring was 28.7%, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%. The operating ratios of PP homopolymer injection, PP copolymer injection, and PP fiber fluctuated mainly, and the spread between PP non - standard and standard products changed little [66]. 4. Polyolefin Import - Export - From January to May 2025, the PE import volume was 5.965 million tons, an 8% increase from the same period last year; the export volume was 415,000 tons, an 8% increase; and the net import volume was 5.55 million tons, a slight increase. The PP import volume was 1.424 million tons, a 9% decrease; the export volume was 1.329 million tons, a 21.6% increase; and the net import volume was 100,000 tons, a decrease. - In the first half of 2025, the external dependence of PE remained high but was decreasing. PP imports continued to decline, exports increased significantly, and the net import volume approached zero, gradually transforming into an export - oriented product [79]. 5. Polyolefin Domestic - Overseas Spread - In the first half of 2025, the LLDPE import window was partially opened at some times, and the export window was closed. The PP export window was opened, and the import window was closed. The import - export profits were mostly around the break - even point, and the import - export windows were not significantly opened. The overseas polyolefin prices were improving, and the domestic - overseas spread strengthened slightly [88]. V. Polyolefin Demand and Inventory 1. Polyolefin Downstream Demand - From January to May 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of plastic product production was 5.4%. Domestic demand for plastic products increased compared with last year, mainly driven by industries such as automobiles, home appliances, and express delivery. The national subsidy policy had a good effect on domestic demand. However, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of plastic product export value was - 2%, and that of primary - form plastic import volume was - 2.3%. The downstream external demand was under pressure due to the Sino - US trade war. - In terms of PE downstream demand, the agricultural film operating rate and order days fluctuated little, currently in the seasonal off - season. The operating rate and order days of packaging film decreased year - on - year, and the profitability of stretch film slightly increased. The raw material inventory days of PE downstream terminals were at a low level, maintaining just - in - time procurement. - In terms of PP downstream demand, the operating and order conditions of plastic weaving and BOPP film were similar to previous years, and the production profit of BOPP film decreased [104]. 2. Polyolefin Inventory - In the first half of 2025, the inventory accumulation pressure of petrochemical polyolefins was acceptable, and the inventory destocking rate in June was slow. Overall, the PP inventory situation was better than that of PE. - For PE inventory, the inventory of upstream "two - oil" companies and coal - chemical enterprises increased, the port inventory was high, and the inventory of middle - stream traders was low, with weak purchasing willingness. - For PP inventory, the inventory of upstream "two - oil" companies increased, the inventory of coal - chemical enterprises and ports was low, and the inventory of middle - stream traders slightly increased [134].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Report's Core View - The prices of most energy and chemical products are expected to fluctuate. For crude oil, due to macro - uncertainties and the fading of geopolitical premiums, it will continue to fluctuate pending the OPEC meeting's production increase decision. High - sulfur fuel oil may have a short - term rebound, but it is recommended to short the high - sulfur cracking spread on rallies. For asphalt, it is recommended to short the cracking spread on rallies. Polyester products like TA and EG are also expected to fluctuate. Rubber is expected to fluctuate weakly, and methanol and other products will maintain a fluctuating trend [1][3][4][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, WTI 8 - month contract closed down 0.45 dollars to 67 dollars/barrel, with a decline of 0.67%. Brent 9 - month contract closed down 0.31 dollars to 68.8 dollars/barrel, with a decline of 0.45%. SC2508 closed up 3.3 yuan/barrel to 507 yuan/barrel, with an increase of 0.66%. The US June non - farm payroll data exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. The Fed Chairman Powell said that a July rate cut is "still under consideration". With macro - uncertainties and the fading of geopolitical premiums, the oil price will continue to fluctuate pending the OPEC meeting's production increase decision [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main fuel oil contract FU2509 on the SHFE closed up 1.05% to 2987 yuan/ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2509 closed up 0.89% to 3623 yuan/ton. As of July 2, the fuel oil inventory in Fujairah decreased by 139.1 million barrels (13.46%) week - on - week. The high - sulfur fundamentals are slightly stronger than the low - sulfur ones. High - sulfur prices may have a short - term rebound, but it is recommended to short the high - sulfur cracking spread on rallies. The domestic low - sulfur supply remains sufficient, and the internal - external price difference is expected to remain low [3] - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract BU2509 on the SHFE closed up 0.25% to 3588 yuan/ton. This week, the shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises decreased by 14.3% week - on - week, and the capacity utilization rate of 69 modified asphalt enterprises decreased by 0.8% week - on - week. The pricing center may shift back to the north after the peak season in the north. It is recommended to short the cracking spread on rallies [3] - **Polyester**: TA509 closed down 1% at 4746 yuan/ton, EG2509 closed down 0.26% at 4288 yuan/ton, and PX 509 closed down 0.74% at 6740 yuan/ton. The downstream demand is weak, and the production and sales of polyester yarn are weak. TA and EG prices are expected to fluctuate [4] - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main rubber contract RU2509 closed down 110 yuan/ton to 14015 yuan/ton. The tire production load decreased, the rubber inventory increased slightly, and the rubber price is expected to fluctuate weakly [5] - **Methanol**: With the recovery of Iranian plants, the subsequent imports will increase. The MTO profit is being compressed, and the short - term methanol price will maintain a fluctuating trend [5] - **Polyolefins**: The supply is at a high level but the increase is limited, the total inventory is slowly decreasing, and the price center moves with the cost [7] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: As the downstream enters the off - season, the fundamentals are under pressure, but the arbitrage and hedging space is narrowing. The PVC price is expected to continue to fluctuate [7] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes for various energy and chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. on July 3 and July 2, 2025 [9] 3. Market News - Iran's Foreign Minister said that Iran will continue to engage with the UN nuclear watchdog. The US June non - farm payroll data exceeded expectations, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, and the Fed Chairman Powell said that a July rate cut is "still under consideration" [11] 4. Chart Analysis 4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [13][14][15] 4.2 Main Contract Basis - It shows the basis charts of main contracts for various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. over a certain period [33][34][35] 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides the spread charts between different contracts for products like fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [45][46][50] 4.4 Inter - product Spreads - It includes the spread and ratio charts between different products such as crude oil internal - external markets, fuel oil high - low sulfur, etc. [61][63][65] 4.5 Production Profits - The report shows the cash - flow and profit charts for products like ethylene - based ethylene glycol and PP [70] 5. Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [77][78][79]

Group 1: Brain-Computer Interface (BCI) - The National Medical Products Administration has announced measures to optimize the lifecycle regulation supporting the innovation of high-end medical devices, particularly focusing on BCI technology [1] - The BCI industry is expected to experience significant growth, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 25.22%, reaching a market size of $7.63 billion by 2029 [1] Group 2: Autonomous Charging Robots - BMW's autonomous charging robot has completed concept validation and is set to be deployed based on future market conditions, utilizing AI for efficient charging operations [2] - The technology enhances charging efficiency and convenience, with competitors like Telda and Zhida Technology also developing similar products [2] Group 3: Commercial Cryptography - New regulations on the use of commercial cryptography for critical information infrastructure will take effect on August 1, 2025, impacting sectors like energy, finance, and transportation [3] - The commercial cryptography market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 25%, reaching 140 billion yuan by 2025 [3] Group 4: POE Price Increase - Major chemical companies have announced price increases for POE (polyolefin elastomer), with prices rising over 1,000 yuan per ton due to geopolitical uncertainties [4] - POE is increasingly used in solar energy applications, accounting for 40% of its usage in China, indicating a growing market potential [4] Group 5: Metaverse Development - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments are promoting the recommendation of typical metaverse cases, indicating a shift towards commercialization [5] - The metaverse market is projected to become a trillion-dollar industry, driven by technological advancements and policy support [5] Group 6: Solid-State Batteries - The Fourth Solid-State Battery Conference is being held, highlighting the industry's focus on high energy density and safety [6] - The solid-state battery sector is accelerating its industrialization process, with applications expected to expand in various fields [6] Group 7: PCB Market Growth - The AI server and switch market for M8 PCBs is projected to reach 50-60 billion yuan by 2026, driven by increasing demand for AI infrastructure [7] - The PCB industry is experiencing growth due to the recovery of electronic demand and innovations in AI and high-speed communication [7] Group 8: Domestic Chip Development - Strategic investments are being made in domestic AI chip companies, indicating a focus on building new AI infrastructure [8] - The demand for AI models is driving the need for enhanced computing capabilities, with domestic companies aiming to compete with international products [8]

Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: July 3, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The futures market of polyolefin opened low and fluctuated upwards, but the market sentiment was not significantly boosted. The cost - end disturbance weakened, and the market returned to its own supply - demand logic. The supply - side pressure from new production capacity continued to be released, and the demand entered the off - season in July. The supply - demand relationship tended to deteriorate, and the single - side market showed a weak downward trend [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - The main contract of LLDPE (L2509) opened low, fluctuated upwards during the session, and closed up at 7288 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan/ton (0.72%), with a trading volume of 270,000 lots and a decrease in open interest by 14,574 to 443,293 lots. The main contract of PP closed at 7072 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan (0.34%), with a decrease in open interest by 12,023 lots to 411,306 lots. The trading atmosphere in the spot market was not strong, and terminal procurement was mainly for rigid demand [5][6] - The weekly maintenance volume of PP/PE increased, but the pressure on the supply side from new production capacity such as Zhenhai Refining & Chemical's fourth - line PP and Yulong Petrochemical continued to be released. In July, the off - season characteristics were more obvious, and the downstream operating rate was mainly supported by order execution [6] 2. Industry News - On July 2, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 740,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons (1.99%) from the previous working day, compared with 750,000 tons in the same period last year [7] - The PE market price continued to decline. The LLDPE price in North China was 7140 - 7380 yuan/ton, 7300 - 7700 yuan/ton in East China, and 7350 - 7650 yuan/ton in South China [7] - The propylene price on the west coast of the Yellow Sea was stable with minor fluctuations, and the mainstream price was 6525 yuan/ton. The downstream was in a wait - and - see state [7] - The PP market continued to decline weakly, with prices dropping by 20 - 30 yuan/ton. The downstream wait - and - see sentiment was strong, and the overall market transaction was poor [7] 3. Data Overview - The report presented multiple data charts, including L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, and the settlement price of the main crude oil futures contract, but no specific data analysis was provided [12][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, the current geopolitical risks have gradually subsided, but the short - term decline in oil prices has been significant. It is believed that the current oil prices have reached a reasonable range. Short positions can still be held, but it is not advisable to chase short positions [2]. - For methanol, it has returned to its own fundamentals. The reality is still low inventory, and the spot performance is relatively strong. The valuation of methanol spot itself is relatively high, and the downstream profits have been significantly compressed. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - For urea, the supply is starting to decline, and the demand for compound fertilizers in the autumn will gradually start. Exports are expected to continue. It is believed that the supply - demand situation of urea may improve slightly, and the short - term downward space for prices is relatively limited. One can pay attention to short - term long opportunities on dips [5]. - For rubber, there is a market expectation of storing 50,000 tons of smoked sheet rubber. NR and RU have strengthened in a volatile manner. It is recommended to adopt a neutral approach, conduct short - term operations, and enter and exit quickly. Also, pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [8][10]. - For PVC, under the expectation of strong supply and weak demand, the main logic of the market is still inventory reduction and weakening. The fundamentals are under pressure, and it is expected to operate weakly in the short term [10]. - For styrene, the cost side is relatively loose, the supply side is increasing in inventory, and the demand side is in the seasonal off - season. It is expected that the styrene price may fluctuate downward [13]. - For polyethylene, the short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to high - maintenance - promoted inventory reduction. The price is expected to remain volatile [15]. - For polypropylene, the profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the demand side is expected to decline seasonally. It is expected that the polypropylene price will be bearish in June [16]. - For PX, after the end of the maintenance season, the load remains high. In the third quarter, due to the commissioning of new PTA plants, PX is expected to continue to reduce inventory. After the geopolitical situation eases and risks are released, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil [18][19]. - For PTA, in July, the expected increase in maintenance volume will lead to a slight reduction in inventory, and the processing fee is supported. After the geopolitical situation eases and risks are released, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [20]. - For ethylene glycol, the inventory reduction in ports is expected to gradually slow down. The fundamentals are weak, and in the short term, it may be strong due to the unexpected shutdown of Saudi plants. Pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rallies, but beware of ethane import risks [21]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $0.56, or 0.86%, to $65.53; Brent main crude oil futures fell $0.35, or 0.52%, to $67.28; INE main crude oil futures rose 1.10 yuan, or 0.22%, to 499.4 yuan [2]. - **Data**: At the Fujairah port, gasoline inventory decreased by 0.45 million barrels to 7.61 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 5.56%; diesel inventory decreased by 0.54 million barrels to 1.63 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 24.94%; fuel oil inventory decreased by 0.28 million barrels to 9.13 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 3.03%; total refined oil inventory decreased by 1.27 million barrels to 18.37 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 6.49% [2]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 1, the 09 contract rose 3 yuan/ton to 2384 yuan/ton, the spot price fell 270 yuan/ton, and the basis was +136 [3]. - **Analysis**: It has returned to its own fundamentals with low inventory and strong spot performance. The downstream profits have been compressed, and it is expected that the port will not accumulate a large amount of inventory before the 09 contract. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 1, the 09 contract rose 9 yuan/ton to 1721 yuan/ton, the spot price fell 10 yuan/ton, and the basis was +39 [5]. - **Analysis**: The number of maintenance devices has increased, and domestic demand has weakened. Exports are continuing, and port inventory is rising. It is expected that the supply - demand situation will improve slightly, and one can pay attention to short - term long opportunities on dips [5]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: There is a market expectation of storing 50,000 tons of smoked sheet rubber, and NR and RU have strengthened in a volatile manner [8]. - **Analysis**: Bulls are optimistic due to the expected production reduction, while bears are pessimistic due to the poor macro - outlook and weak demand. The tire start - up rate has increased year - on - year and month - on - month. It is recommended to adopt a neutral approach and conduct short - term operations [8][9][10]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract fell 68 yuan to 4821 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4740 yuan/ton (down 80 yuan/ton), the basis was - 81 yuan/ton (down 12 yuan/ton), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 93 yuan/ton (down 4 yuan/ton) [10]. - **Analysis**: The cost side has some upward pressure, the supply is high, the demand is weak, and the exports are expected to weaken. The market is expected to operate weakly [10]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price and futures price have both fallen, and the basis has strengthened [12]. - **Analysis**: The cost side is relatively loose, the supply side is increasing in inventory, and the demand side is in the seasonal off - season. It is expected that the styrene price may fluctuate downward [12][13]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price has fallen. The main contract closed at 7249 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton, the spot price fell 15 yuan/ton, and the basis was 51 yuan/ton, weakening by 3 yuan/ton [15]. - **Analysis**: The short - term contradiction has shifted, and the price is expected to remain volatile [15]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price has fallen. The main contract closed at 7044 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton, the spot price remained unchanged, and the basis was 176 yuan/ton, strengthening by 26 yuan/ton [16]. - **Analysis**: The profit of Shandong refineries has rebounded, and the demand side is expected to decline seasonally. It is expected that the price will be bearish in June [16]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 2 yuan to 6794 yuan, the PX CFR fell 13 dollars to 861 dollars, and the basis was 305 yuan (- 110 yuan), and the 9 - 1 spread was 160 yuan (- 34 yuan) [18]. - **Analysis**: After the end of the maintenance season, the load remains high. In the third quarter, due to the commissioning of new PTA plants, PX is expected to continue to reduce inventory. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil [18][19]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose 2 yuan/ton to 4800 yuan, the East China spot price fell 50 yuan to 4980 yuan, the basis was 175 yuan (- 49 yuan), and the 9 - 1 spread was 126 yuan (- 18 yuan) [20]. - **Analysis**: In July, the expected increase in maintenance volume will lead to a slight reduction in inventory, and the processing fee is supported. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [20]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 6 yuan/ton to 4273 yuan, the East China spot price fell 6 yuan to 4328 yuan, the basis was 69 yuan (+ 5 yuan), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 21 yuan (+ 6 yuan) [21]. - **Analysis**: The inventory reduction in ports is expected to gradually slow down. The fundamentals are weak, and in the short term, it may be strong due to the unexpected shutdown of Saudi plants. Pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rallies [21].

型劇现日报 聚烯烃广 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年7月2日 张晓珍 Z0003135 | 品种 | 7月1日 | 6月30日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L2601收盘价 | 7214 | 7228 | -14 | -0.19% | | | L2509 收盘价 | 7249 | 7261 | -12 | -0.17% | | | PP2601 收盘价 | eaal | 7012 | -16 | -0.23% | | | PP2509 收盘价 | 7044 | 7070 | -26 | -0.37% | | | L2509-2601 | રેટ | 33 | 2 | 6.06% | | | PP2509-2601 | 48 | 58 | -10 | -17.24% | TT/04 | | 华东PP拉丝现货 | 7110 | 7150 | -40 | -0.56% | | | 华北LLDPE膜料现货 | 7170 | 7200 | -30 | -0.42% | | | 华北塑料基差 | -8 ...