Core Viewpoint - The restructuring of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in Shaanxi Province emphasizes not only the physical integration of institutions and assets but also the deep fusion of resources, mechanisms, and strategies, leading to a transformation from decentralized operations to concentrated development, thereby releasing strong new development momentum [1][6]. Group 1: Background and Context - Shaanxi Province has historically faced challenges with its SOEs, characterized by a high number of enterprises that are dispersed and homogeneous, which has hindered high-quality economic development [3][4]. - The province has undertaken 13 rounds of strategic restructuring, reducing the number of provincial SOEs from over 40 to 23, focusing on resource complementarity and competitive advantage [1][4]. Group 2: Economic Performance - In 2024, Shaanxi's provincial SOEs reported total assets of 3.39 trillion yuan, operating revenue of 1.68 trillion yuan, and total profits of 861.2 billion yuan, maintaining a leading position among local state-owned asset systems in China [1][5]. - The total profit of Shaanxi's SOEs increased by 9.9% year-on-year, with industrial output value rising by 5.4% [5]. Group 3: Restructuring Strategies - The restructuring approach includes strategies such as homogenization integration, industrial chain integration, and professional integration, aiming to enhance operational efficiency and reduce redundant competition [4][10]. - The focus is on market-oriented reforms, optimizing equity structures, and introducing professional managers to strengthen the market competitiveness of enterprises [4][10]. Group 4: Innovation and Development - Post-restructuring, Shaanxi SOEs are prioritizing innovation as a core element of their development strategy, with significant investments in technology and research [8][9]. - The Shaanxi Energy Group has implemented 18 reform measures to support technological innovation, leading to substantial advancements in various fields [8][9]. Group 5: Regulatory Innovations - The province is innovating its state asset supervision model to ensure the sustainable operation of restructured SOEs, focusing on comprehensive, penetrating, and intelligent regulation [10][11]. - The introduction of external directors and specialized supervisory roles aims to enhance oversight and reduce decision-making risks within SOEs [10][11]. Group 6: Future Directions - Shaanxi's SOEs are targeting emerging industries such as new materials, hydrogen energy, and new energy vehicles, with a focus on transforming strategic plans into tangible outcomes [12]. - The province aims to create distinctive industrial clusters that contribute to high-quality economic development, leveraging its unique regional advantages [12].

Core Insights - The National Energy Investment Group has released its brand strategy and ESG reports, highlighting its commitment to sustainable development and social responsibility [1][2] - The group achieved a total power generation of 724.4 billion kWh in 2024, with a total installed capacity exceeding 260 million kW, and nearly 73% of its capacity coming from clean energy sources [1] - The group received a "five-star" rating for its 2024 social responsibility report, marking the second consecutive year of this recognition [1] Group 1 - The National Energy Investment Group's clean energy installed capacity continues to lead globally, particularly in solar and renewable energy [1] - The group has established a comprehensive reporting matrix for ESG disclosures, with six listed companies and 24 secondary units publishing their respective reports [1] - The group ranked 10th in brand value within the energy and chemical sector according to the 2025 China Brand Value Evaluation [1] Group 2 - The group aims to be a leader in forging national key projects while adhering to green development principles [2] - It emphasizes the importance of social welfare and aims to contribute to societal prosperity through its initiatives [2] - The group is focused on high-quality development and brand leadership to support national construction and rejuvenation efforts [2]

Core Viewpoint - The conference on biomass gasification and downstream high-value utilization technologies highlighted the importance of coupling biomass energy with the coal chemical industry as a key measure to implement the national "energy revolution" strategy and promote green and low-carbon transformation in the industrial sector [1] Group 1: Industry Developments - Recent advancements in biomass gasification, catalytic conversion, and green fuel synthesis technologies have provided strong support for building a clean and low-carbon energy system in China [1] - Biomass gasification is recognized as an effective supplement for the clean and efficient utilization of coal, transitioning from laboratory research to industrialization [1] Group 2: Technical Innovations - Experts presented reports on various aspects of biomass gasification technology, low-carbon coupling, catalytic conversion, green fuel certification, and project engineering, showcasing a full chain of innovative achievements from key technological breakthroughs to commercial certification and project implementation [1] - The "Coal Science Furnace" biomass gasification pilot facility demonstrated efficient conversion of various biomass feedstocks and low-carbon operation, based on years of gasification technology accumulation by the China Coal Research Institute [2] Group 3: Future Directions - The China Coal Research Institute plans to accelerate the integration of clean and efficient coal utilization technologies with biomass gasification technologies, aiming to expand pathways for low-carbon products such as green methanol and sustainable aviation fuel [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Short - term, the price is in a correction trend, pay attention to the risk of decline [12] - US Dollar Index: Short - term, it is expected to fluctuate [16] - US Stock Index Futures: Short - term, the pessimistic sentiment may ferment, the market will fluctuate and adjust, but maintain a bullish view overall [19] - Treasury Bond Futures: Short - term, the bond market will fluctuate, it is recommended to observe more and trade less [23] - Stock Index Futures: Allocate long positions in each stock index evenly [26] - Thermal Coal: The price is strongly supported, but there is regulatory pressure above 800 yuan, pay attention to the risk of price correction [27] - Iron Ore: The price center is gradually weakening, and it is expected to be weak in the short - term [31] - Palm Oil and Soybean Oil: For palm oil, the MPOB report is crucial; for soybean oil, focus on US bio - fuel policies and US soybean purchases [34] - Sugar: The Zhengzhou sugar futures will be mainly volatile in the short - term, and the 1 - 5 contract long spread can be held [39] - Cotton: In the short - term, it will fluctuate between 13300 - 13600 - 13800; in the long - term, it is cautiously bullish, wait for the opportunity to go long on dips [44] - Bean Meal: It is currently in a situation of "cost support below and supply - demand suppression above", and pay attention to actual soybean purchases and South American production forecasts [47] - Steel: In the short - term, consider the steel price to be in a weak and volatile trend [51] - Corn Starch: In the medium - long term, the spot rice - flour price difference is expected to shrink, it is recommended to trade in bands [53] - Red Dates: The market is in intense game, operate cautiously, and focus on the price game and purchase progress in the producing areas [56] - Corn: The 01 contract is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term, and rebound in the medium - long term; do not be overly optimistic about the far - month contracts [58] - Copper: Unilaterally, it is recommended to go long on dips; for arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see [63] - Polysilicon: In November, it enters the critical point of policy and fundamentals game. Consider shorting on rallies [66] - Industrial Silicon: It is more cost - effective to go long on dips, and take profit at high levels [68] - Lithium Carbonate: In the short - term, it will fluctuate within a range; in the medium - term, consider shorting on rallies [74] - Nickel: Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips after the inflection point of inventory accumulation [78] - Lead: Industrially, consider shorting on rallies in the medium - term; for spreads, wait and see; for internal - external spreads, consider long internal - short external spreads [80] - Zinc: Industrially, consider shorting on rallies in the medium - term, but wait and see in the short - term; for spreads, consider long spreads in the medium - term; for internal - external spreads, it has a certain profit - loss ratio [81] - EU Carbon Emissions: The EU carbon price will fluctuate in the short - term [83] - Crude Oil: The oil price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [86] - PTA: In the short - term, the futures will be volatile and strong, but be cautious about the upside space [88] - Bottle Chip: Consider shorting the far - month processing margin on rallies, and the absolute price follows the polyester raw materials [92] - Urea: It will fluctuate within the range of 1580 - 1780 yuan/ton, and adjust according to the actual spot feedback [94] - Container Freight Rate: In the short - term, the market will fluctuate, and continuously monitor the spot price changes [96] 2. Core Views - The US government shutdown shows signs of resolution, which may boost market risk appetite and weaken the US dollar index. The US stock index futures market sentiment has recovered, but the consumer confidence index has declined [14][16][19] - China's October export growth rate decreased significantly, but it is expected to have resilience in the future. The bond market is currently in a volatile state, and positive spread strategies can be considered [20][22][23] - Various commodities have different market situations. For example, the iron ore price is weakening, the palm oil market is waiting for the MPOB report, and the copper market is affected by macro - expectations and inventory structures [28][33][62] 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - In October, China's gold reserves increased by about 0.93 tons. The US consumer confidence index declined in November, inflation expectations slightly rose, and the short - term gold price continued to fluctuate [10][11] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The Fed needs to weigh various factors in the next interest - rate decision. The potential agreement to end the US government shutdown is being reached, and the US dollar index is expected to weaken in the short - term [13][15][16] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The Fed should act cautiously as the interest rate approaches the neutral level. The US government shutdown shows signs of resolution, but the consumer confidence index is close to a record low. The short - term market will fluctuate and adjust [17][18][19] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - China's October inflation data was slightly better than expected, but the export growth rate decreased significantly. The bond market is worried about the fund fee rate new regulations, and it is currently in a volatile state [20][22][23] 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China has suspended some export control measures. The A - share market has shown a stable volume and rising price, and it is recommended to evenly allocate long positions in each stock index [24][25][26] 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Thermal Coal) - In November, the thermal coal price has risen, and it is expected to be strong, but there is regulatory pressure above 800 yuan [27] 3.2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - A South African iron ore mine will be temporarily closed, but it will not affect global supply. The iron ore price is weakening, and the inventory is expected to increase [28][29][31] 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Brazil's soybean planting progress is slower than last year and the five - year average. The palm oil market is waiting for the MPOB report, and the soybean oil market is concerned about US bio - fuel policies [32][33][34] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazil's sugar export reached a new high in October. The new sugar production in Guangxi will start later, and the Zhengzhou sugar futures will be mainly volatile in the short - term [36][38][39] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - China's textile and clothing export decreased in October. The cotton picking progress is fast, and the Zhengzhou cotton futures will fluctuate in the short - term and be cautiously bullish in the long - term [40][42][44] 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Bean Meal) - China has restored the soybean import qualification of three US companies. The domestic soybean import is abundant, and the oil mill's开机 rate is expected to rise [45][46][47] 3.2.7 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Some areas in Hebei have lifted the heavy - pollution weather emergency response. The steel price is in a weak and volatile state, and more market - oriented production cuts are needed [48][50][51] 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The starch sugar industry's开机 rate has increased. The starch enterprise is profitable, and the inventory pressure is acceptable [52] 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The red date price in the Hebei market is weak and stable. The new jujubes are about to be harvested, and the market game is intense [54][56] 3.2.10 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The feed enterprise's corn inventory days have increased, and the deep - processing enterprise's inventory has decreased slightly. The 01 contract is expected to be weak in the short - term and rebound in the medium - long term [57][58] 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Chile's copper export increased in October. The copper price is affected by macro - expectations and inventory structures, and it is recommended to go long on dips [59][62][63] 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - A company has reduced its stake in Tianhe光能. The polysilicon spot price is under pressure, and it is recommended to short on rallies in November [64][65][66] 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The Sichuan and Yunnan silicon enterprises'开机 rate is weak. The industrial silicon price may fluctuate, and it is recommended to go long on dips [67][68] 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - A company has won a large lithium project contract. The lithium demand is strong, but the supply is also increasing. The short - term price will fluctuate, and consider shorting on rallies in the medium - term [69][72][74] 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia plans to complete the feasibility study of 18 downstream projects in December and has stopped approving some nickel intermediate product plants. The nickel price is affected by market sentiment and fundamentals, and pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips [75][77][78] 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead is at a discount. The recycled lead industry is in the stage of large - scale resumption of production, and the short - term supply and demand will be strong. Consider shorting on rallies in the medium - term [79][80] 3.2.17 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc is at a premium. The LME zinc may face a short - squeeze risk, and the domestic zinc inventory has decreased. Consider shorting on rallies in the medium - term [81] 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU carbon price is affected by weather and power - price policies and will fluctuate in the short - term [82][83] 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US oil rig count remains unchanged. The US will exempt Hungary from sanctions on importing Russian oil. The oil price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [84][85][86] 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot price has increased, and the futures market is affected by supply - side factors. The short - term futures will be volatile and strong, but be cautious about the upside space [87][88] 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chip) - The bottle chip factory's export price is stable. The supply is stable, the demand is in the off - season, and consider shorting the far - month processing margin on rallies [91][92] 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - India has issued a new urea import tender. The urea futures have rebounded due to export policy changes and replenishment demand. It will fluctuate within a certain range [93][94] 3.2.23 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The new - shipbuilding market is active. The SCFI index has declined, and the container freight rate will fluctuate in the short - term, and monitor the spot price changes [95][96]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market will remain volatile under the backdrop of declining liquidity. The three - dimensional timing framework continues to predict a volatile decline. The Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 index is in a slow - rising trend and oscillating within a channel, with strong upper resistance and lower support [1][7]. - The power grid equipment theme index has seen significant inflows. In the past week, there were large inflows into the power grid equipment theme, communication equipment theme, etc., while the innovation energy, state - owned enterprise digital economy, etc. had the most outflows [1][25]. - Industries recommended based on capital resonance are agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, construction, electric power and public utilities, and petroleum and petrochemicals [2][31]. - The high - volatility and high - liquidity style is dominant this week, with the liquidity factor achieving positive returns. Among Alpha factors, reversal and cash - flow factors perform well. In large - cap stocks, factors such as profit growth and analyst expectations are dominant, while in small - cap stocks, R & D intensity and growth factors perform better [2][39]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Quantitative Views 3.1.1 Timing Viewpoint Liquidity is on a downward trend, divergence is on an upward trend, and the prosperity has rebounded again (financial sector up, industrial sector down). The three - dimensional timing framework maintains a judgment of volatile decline. The Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 index is in a slow - rising trend and oscillating within a channel, with no sign of breaking through the range [1][7]. 3.1.2 Index Monitoring By calculating the overall subscription/redemption shares of ETF products for each index, it was found that the power grid equipment theme had the largest inflow ratio in the past week, month, and three - month periods. The innovation energy, state - owned enterprise digital economy, etc. had the most outflows in the past week. The hot - trend strategy for ETFs includes industries such as photovoltaic semiconductors, environmental protection and new energy, energy and chemicals, and power grid equipment [25]. 3.1.3 Capital Flow Resonance The margin trading funds had the largest net inflow of 6249 million yuan in the power equipment and new energy sector last week, and the large - order funds had the largest net inflow of 1323 million yuan in the banking sector. This week, the recommended industries are agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, construction, electric power and public utilities, and petroleum and petrochemicals [2][31]. 3.2 Factor Tracking 3.2.1 Style Factors The market this week shows the characteristics of "momentum continuation, high volatility, and high liquidity". The volatility factor and the liquidity factor both achieved positive returns, and the momentum factor also had a positive return [39]. 3.2.2 Alpha Factors - **By Time**: Recently, the reversal and cash - flow factors have performed well. The short - term reversal factor had the best performance in the past month, with a long - position excess return of 1.16% [43]. - **By Index**: In large - cap indexes such as the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, profit - growth and analyst - expectation factors are dominant. In small - cap indexes such as the CSI 1000, R & D intensity and growth factors perform better. As the market capitalization moves from the CSI 800 to the CSI 1000, the excess returns of most factors show an upward trend [45].

Core Insights - The 8th China International Import Expo (CIIE) showcases the integration of global goods, cutting-edge technology, and diverse cultures, emphasizing the theme of "New Era, Shared Future" [3][6] Group 1: Industry Trends - The CIIE has evolved from a "newborn" to a "mature" event, transforming from a "window" to a "hub" for international trade, reflecting China's commitment to increasing openness [3] - The agricultural sector is highlighted by Syngenta Group, which reports that its Chinese operations account for one-third of its total revenue, showcasing significant market demand [4] - The modernization of China's agriculture is accelerating, with notable improvements in production efficiency and sustainable development, which are expected to drive global agricultural innovation [5] Group 2: Company Developments - A major energy and chemical project worth over $1 billion was signed during the expo, indicating strong international collaboration and confidence in the Chinese market [7] - DoTerra's growth in China exemplifies successful localization strategies, with the company expanding from a small team to over 200 employees and establishing a research center in Shanghai [8] - DoTerra's innovative "essential oil + agriculture" model is fostering sustainable development and creating unique economic opportunities for local farmers [8]

Group 1: Institutional Research and Market Trends - During the week of November 2 to 7, 418 listed companies disclosed institutional investor research records, maintaining the same level as the previous week [1] - Key focus areas for institutions included interpretations of Q3 operational results, potential opportunities in Q4, and analyses of development prospects brought by the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] - Nearly 50% of companies that were researched by institutions achieved positive returns, with notable stock price increases around 30% for companies like Longda Co., CITIC Metal, and Changbao Co. [1] Group 2: R&D Investment Trends - Companies are increasingly focusing on R&D investments as a sign of future growth, with significant increases reported in Q3 [2] - Q3 R&D investment for Qichuang Data reached 230 million yuan, a substantial increase of approximately 83.5 million yuan year-on-year, primarily for upgrading computing service platforms [2] - Ying Shi Innovation reported increases in both R&D and marketing expenses, with R&D costs rising due to custom chip development and strategic project investments [2][3] Group 3: Q4 Opportunities - Companies are looking for potential opportunities in Q4, with Petty Co. noting a 30% year-on-year increase in GMV during the "Double Eleven" shopping festival [4] - Botao Bio indicated a rising trend in flu activity, suggesting a strong market demand for POCT flu virus testing as the flu season approaches [4] - The SAF price has been rising due to factors such as mandatory blending policies and increased raw material costs, with expectations of sustained high industry demand [5] Group 4: "14th Five-Year Plan" Insights - Companies are focusing on opportunities presented by the "14th Five-Year Plan," with China Energy Construction emphasizing a focus on integrated hydrogen energy solutions [6][7] - HNA Group plans to optimize its fleet structure during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period to ensure stable and healthy development [7] - Jinzhou Pipeline highlighted a national investment of 5 trillion yuan for underground pipeline construction, predicting an annual growth rate of over 8% in the pipeline manufacturing industry [8]

Group 1: Core View - With positive progress in economic and trade tariffs between China and the US, the macro bullish expectations have been fulfilled, and the macro - driven force of energy - chemical commodities has weakened, being dominated by their respective supply - demand fundamentals. Some domestic energy - chemical commodities maintained a inventory - building trend this week, including rubber, methanol, ethylene glycol, polypropylene, plastic, and urea, while fuel oil, asphalt, styrene, PTA, and PVC showed de - stocking. Methanol, PVC, plastic, polypropylene, PTA, asphalt, and fuel oil maintained a weekly production - increasing trend, while the production of urea, ethylene glycol, and styrene decreased slightly. Currently, energy - chemical commodities generally face over - capacity, insufficient downstream terminal demand, and increasing inventory pressure, leading to a downward shift in the center of futures prices [6]. Group 2: Data Charts Rubber - Rubber data charts include rubber basis, 1 - 5 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao Free Trade Zone rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [7][9][11][13]. Methanol - Methanol data charts involve methanol basis, 1 - 5 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [18][20][22][25]. Crude Oil - Crude oil data charts cover crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US commercial crude oil inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position holding change, and Brent crude oil net position holding change [31][33][35][37]. Fuel Oil - Fuel oil data charts include domestic high - sulfur fuel oil basis trend, high - sulfur fuel oil month spread trend, 2016 - 2025 domestic fuel oil production trend, 2020 - 2025 Singapore fuel oil inventory trend, 2022 - 2025 global major shipping index trend, and Shanghai Futures Exchange high - sulfur fuel oil futures inventory trend [45][46][48][50]. Asphalt - Asphalt data charts involve 2020 - 2025 domestic asphalt basis trend, asphalt month spread trend, 2016 - 2025 domestic asphalt production trend, 2016 - 2025 domestic refinery asphalt unit operating rate, 2020 - 2025 China's asphalt import volume trend, and 2016 - 2025 Shanghai Futures Exchange asphalt weekly inventory trend [59][60][61][63]. PTA - PTA data charts include 2020 - 2025 domestic PTA basis trend, 2020 - 2025 domestic PTA futures 1 - 5 month spread trend, 2020 - 2025 domestic PTA unit operating rate trend, 2016 - 2025 Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange PTA warehouse receipts trend, 2016 - 2025 domestic PTA weekly production trend, and 2020 - 2025 PTA enterprise weekly inventory [70][71][73][76]. Ethylene Glycol - Ethylene glycol data charts cover ethylene glycol basis trend, 1 - 5 month spread trend, 2021 - 2025 domestic ethylene glycol operating rate trend, 2018 - 2025 polyester industry chain operating rate trend, 2021 - 2025 domestic ethylene glycol weekly production trend, and 2018 - 2025 East China ethylene glycol inventory [85][87][89][92]. Styrene - Styrene data charts include 2020 - 2025 styrene basis trend, 2021 - 2025 styrene 1 - 5 month spread trend, 2016 - 2025 domestic styrene operating rate trend, 2020 - 2025 domestic styrene factory inventory trend, 2020 - 2025 East + South China port styrene inventory, and 2021 - 2025 styrene registered warehouse receipts volume [98][99][101][103]. Plastic - Plastic data charts involve LLDPE basis trend, 2019 - 2025 LLDPE 1 - 5 month spread trend, 2019 - 2025 domestic PE and LLDPE monthly production, 2020 - 2025 Dalian Commodity Exchange plastic warehouse receipts quantity, 2018 - 2025 domestic polyethylene import volume trend, and 2016 - 2025 domestic plastic products trend [109][110][113][115]. PP - PP data charts include polypropylene basis trend, polypropylene 1 - 5 month spread trend, 2010 - 2025 Taiwan polypropylene production, 2016 - 2025 domestic polypropylene downstream operating rate, 2016 - 2025 domestic PP import volume trend, and 2020 - 2025 domestic polypropylene warehouse receipts quantity trend [124][125][127][129]. PVC - PVC data charts involve 2019 - 2025 domestic PVC basis trend, 2019 - 2025 domestic PVC 1 - 5 month spread trend, 2016 - 2025 ethylene production trend, 2018 - 2025 domestic PVC import volume trend, 2020 - 2025 Dalian Commodity Exchange PVC warehouse receipts quantity, and 2018 - 2025 cumulative values of housing completion and sales area [136][137][139][141]. Urea - Urea data charts include 2019 - 2025 domestic urea spot price trend, 2020 - 2025 domestic urea 1 - 5 month spread trend, 2019 - 2025 domestic urea futures registered warehouse receipts, 2017 - 2025 domestic urea weekly operating rate, 2016 - 2025 domestic urea port inventory trend, and 2017 - 2025 domestic urea daily average production [149][150][152][153].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market showed a strong upward trend on November 6, 2025, with the technology sector leading the way. The market is expected to experience some short - term fluctuations but has limited downside risks. For the bond market, there are opportunities for appropriate long - positions and positive arbitrage strategies. In the precious metals market, there is a long - term bullish outlook, but short - term oscillations are expected. Different commodities in the futures market have their own supply - demand situations and price trends, with corresponding trading suggestions provided for each [3][5][7][10] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: On November 6, the A - share market rose across the board, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.97% at 4007.76 points. The four major stock index futures contracts also closed higher, and the basis discounts of the main contracts were repaired. The semiconductor industry chain rebounded strongly, while the consumer industry corrected [3][4] - **News**: Domestically, the Ministry of Commerce held talks with the US agricultural trade delegation. Overseas, the US Supreme Court debated the legality of Trump's large - scale tariff collection [4] - **Funding**: The trading volume of the A - share market increased by over 300 billion yuan, with a total turnover of 2.06 trillion yuan. The central bank conducted 92.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 249.8 billion yuan [5] - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to mainly observe as the market may experience a slight callback after reaching a high and is waiting to stabilize [5] Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Most treasury bond futures contracts closed lower, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds generally rose [6] - **Funding**: The central bank conducted 92.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 249.8 billion yuan. However, the inter - bank liquidity remained loose [6][7] - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to take appropriate long - positions in the unilateral strategy and pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities in the spot - futures strategy [7] Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market Review**: US labor market contraction signals emerged in October, and the UK central bank paused interest rate cuts. Precious metals prices first rose and then fell. The international gold price closed at $3975.88 per ounce, down 0.07%, and the international silver price closed at $47.983 per ounce, up 0.02% [8][9][10] - **Outlook**: In the long - term, precious metals may enter a bull market, but in the short - term, the international gold price is expected to oscillate between $3900 - $4030, and the silver price between $47 - $49 [10] - **Funding**: ETF funds have flowed out due to the recent price fluctuations, and investors' attitudes are cautious [12] Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Spot Quotation**: As of November 4, the freight quotes for Shanghai - Europe routes from different shipping companies showed certain ranges [13] - **Container Shipping Index**: As of November 3, the SCFIS European line index decreased by 7.92% month - on - month, while the US - West route index increased by 14.43% [13] - **Fundamentals**: As of November 4, the global container shipping capacity increased by 7.34% year - on - year, and the demand in different regions showed different characteristics as reflected by PMI data [14] - **Logic**: The futures market declined, and the main contract is expected to oscillate between 1800 - 2000 points [14] - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to buy the December contract at low prices in the short - term [14] Financial Derivatives - Commodity Futures - Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: As of November 6, the average price of SMM electrolytic copper increased, and downstream demand showed a short - term recovery [14] - **Macro**: The US market liquidity tightened, the manufacturing PMI was lower than expected, and the Trump tariff case was being heard, which may affect copper prices [15] - **Supply**: The copper concentrate spot TC remained low. The electrolytic copper production in October decreased slightly, and it is expected to decline slightly in November [16] - **Demand**: The weekly operating rate of copper rod processing increased, and downstream demand showed strong resilience [16][17] - **Inventory**: LME, domestic social, and COMEX copper inventories all increased [17] - **Logic**: The copper price is expected to show an upward trend in the long - term due to supply - demand contradictions, but short - term price increases may suppress demand [18] - **Operation Suggestion**: Pay attention to the support at 84000 and the resistance at 86500 [18] - **Short - term View**: Oscillation [18] Alumina - **Spot**: On November 6, the spot prices of alumina in different regions showed different trends, with a shrinking north - south price difference [18] - **Supply**: In October, the production of metallurgical - grade alumina increased, and the operating rate decreased slightly. In November, the supply is expected to remain in surplus, but the situation may improve [19] - **Inventory**: Alumina inventories in ports, plants, and warehouses all increased [19] - **Logic**: The alumina price is expected to remain weakly oscillating, with the main contract ranging from 2750 - 2900 yuan/ton [20] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 2750 - 2900 yuan/ton [20] - **View**: Weakly oscillating [20] Aluminum - **Spot**: On November 6, the average price of SMM A00 aluminum increased, and the spot premium decreased [22] - **Supply**: In October, domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased, and it is expected to decline slightly in November due to environmental protection restrictions [22] - **Demand**: Downstream processing industries entered the peak season, but the weekly operating rate declined [22] - **Inventory**: Domestic mainstream consumer area inventories increased slightly, while LME inventories decreased [23] - **Logic**: The price increase of the main contract was driven by overseas news, but the fundamentals are not optimistic. The price is expected to fluctuate between 20500 - 21500 yuan/ton [24] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 20800 - 21600 yuan/ton [25] - **View**: Wide - range oscillation [25] Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: On November 6, the average price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged [25] - **Supply**: In October, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased, and the supply of raw materials remained tight [25] - **Demand**: The demand showed a mild recovery, but the order volume did not increase significantly [26] - **Inventory**: The social inventory increased slightly, and the absolute inventory remained high [26] - **Logic**: The ADC12 price is expected to remain strongly oscillating, with the main contract ranging from 20400 - 21000 yuan/ton [27] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 20400 - 21000 yuan/ton. Consider the arbitrage strategy of going long on AD01 and short on AL01 when the spread is above 550 [28] - **View**: Wide - range oscillation [28] Zinc - **Spot**: On November 6, the average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots remained stable, and downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand [28] - **Supply**: The zinc concentrate processing fees decreased, and the zinc production from January to October increased. The subsequent supply increase may be limited [29] - **Demand**: The operating rates of primary processing industries were relatively stable, and the overall demand did not exceed expectations [30] - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventories decreased, while LME inventories were basically stable [30] - **Logic**: The zinc price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term but may remain range - bound. Upward or downward breakthroughs depend on demand improvement or inventory changes [31] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 22300 - 23000 yuan/ton [31] - **Short - term View**: Oscillation [31] Tin - **Spot**: On November 6, the price of SMM 1 tin increased, and the market trading was mainly for rigid demand [31] - **Supply**: In September, the domestic tin ore and tin ingot imports showed different trends. The supply from Myanmar improved slightly, but the overall supply remained tight [32] - **Demand and Inventory**: In September, the solder operating rate increased, but the traditional consumer electronics and other fields had weak demand. The LME inventory increased, while the domestic inventory decreased [33] - **Logic**: The market sentiment improved, and the fundamentals were strong. It is recommended to hold long positions at low prices and buy on dips [34] - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions at low prices and buy on dips [34] - **Near - term View**: Wide - range oscillation [34] Nickel - **Spot**: As of November 6, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel decreased [34] - **Supply**: In October, the domestic refined nickel production decreased, but the overall production remained at a high level [35] - **Demand**: The demand for electroplating and alloys was relatively stable, the demand for stainless steel was weak, and the demand for nickel sulfate was supported in the short - term but faced challenges in the medium - term [35] - **Inventory**: Overseas inventories remained high, while domestic social inventories decreased slightly, and bonded area inventories declined [35] - **Logic**: The macro - environment was weak, but the cost was supported. The price is expected to oscillate between 118000 - 124000 yuan/ton [36] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 118000 - 124000 yuan/ton [37] - **Short - term View**: Range - bound oscillation [37] Stainless Steel - **Spot**: As of November 6, the prices of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan remained stable [38] - **Raw Materials**: The nickel ore price was firm, the nickel iron price decreased, and the chromium iron market was weak [38] - **Supply**: In September and October, the domestic stainless steel production increased. The supply pressure remained [39] - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased slightly, and the warehouse receipt quantity declined [39] - **Logic**: The macro - driving force weakened, and the fundamentals were under pressure. The price is expected to oscillate weakly between 12500 - 13000 yuan/ton [40] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 12500 - 13000 yuan/ton [41] - **Short - term View**: Weakly oscillating [41] Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: As of November 6, the prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased, and the trading was mainly for rigid demand [41] - **Supply**: In October, the lithium carbonate production increased, and last week's production also showed a slight increase [42] - **Demand**: The demand was optimistic, and the production schedules of iron - lithium and ternary materials were expected to increase [42] - **Inventory**: The overall inventory decreased last week [43] - **Logic**: The price was supported by strong fundamentals in the short - term. However, the trading logic has switched, and the price is expected to oscillate between 78000 - 82000 yuan/ton [45] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 78000 - 82000 yuan/ton [46] - **Short - term View**: Oscillation adjustment [46] Financial Derivatives - Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - **Spot**: The spot price was stable, the basis of rebar weakened, and the basis of hot - rolled coil was slightly stronger [46] - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of iron elements had weak support, while the cost of carbon elements had support. The profit order was billet > hot - rolled coil > rebar > cold - rolled coil [46] - **Supply**: From January to September, the iron element production increased. In October and November, the molten iron production decreased, and the five major steel products' production also declined [46] - **Demand**: Domestic demand was weak, exports were high, and the apparent demand decreased [47] - **Inventory**: The inventory of the five major steel products decreased, the rebar inventory decreased, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased [47] - **View**: The steel market was slightly stronger, and it is recommended to continue holding the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on hot - rolled coil [48][49] Iron Ore - **Spot**: As of November 6, the prices of mainstream iron ore powders increased slightly [50] - **Futures**: The iron ore futures prices increased slightly, and the 1 - 5 spread weakened [50] - **Basis**: The basis of different iron ore products was provided [50] - **Demand**: As of November 6, the daily molten iron production decreased, and the demand for iron ore weakened [50] - **Supply**: Last week, the global iron ore shipment decreased, but the port arrivals increased significantly [51] - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased, the daily port clearing volume increased slightly, and the steel mill's imported iron ore inventory increased [51] - **View**: The iron ore price is expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to short at high prices and use the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore [51] Coking Coal - **Futures and Spot**: As of November 6, the coking coal futures rebounded, the Shanxi coal - coke price was strong, and the Mongolian coal price was high [52] - **Supply**: The production capacity utilization rate of sample coal mines decreased slightly, and the production and inventory showed different trends [52][53] - **Demand**: The production of coke by independent coking plants and steel mills decreased, and the demand for coking coal weakened [54] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of coking coal increased slightly [55] - **View**: The coking coal price is expected to rise in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to go long on coking coal 2601 at low prices and use the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [56] Coke - **Futures and Spot**: As of November 6, the coke futures rebounded. The third - round price increase of coke was implemented, and there is still an expectation of a further increase [57][61] - **Profit**: The average profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants was negative [58] - **Supply**: The daily production of coke decreased, and the cost was supported by the rising coking coal price [59][61] - **Demand**: The iron water production decreased, and the steel price was weak, which suppressed the coke price increase [60][61] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of coke decreased slightly, and the supply - demand was tight [61] - **View**: The coke price is expected to rise in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to go long on coke 2601 at low prices and use the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [62] Financial Derivatives - Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - **Spot Market**: On November 6, the domestic soybean meal price was stable or decreased, and the rapeseed meal price increased. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased [63] - **Fundamentals**: China adjusted the tariff on US imports, and there were various news about the soybean production and trade in the US, Brazil, and Argentina [63][64] - **Market Outlook**: The US soybean price fell sharply. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories were high, but the cost support was strong, and the soybean meal price was expected to be supported [64][65] Live Pigs - **Spot Situation**: The spot price of live pigs oscillated, and the national average price increased slightly [66] - **Market Data**: The inventory of breeding sows decreased in October, and the profit of live pig farming decreased [66][67] - **Market Outlook**: The live pig price is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to continue holding the 3 - 7 reverse spread strategy and be cautiously bullish on the unilateral position [67] Corn - **Spot Price**: On November 6, the corn price in Northeast China and North China was relatively stable, and the port price was slightly weak [68] - **Fundamentals**: The corn inventory in northern ports and Guangdong ports showed different trends, and the inventory of feed and deep - processing enterprises also changed [68][69] - **Market Outlook**: The corn

1. Overall Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The commodity futures market is influenced by a variety of factors, including economic data, geopolitical events, and supply - demand dynamics. Different commodities show different trends and investment opportunities due to their unique fundamentals [2][4][9]. - In the precious metals market, the price of gold and silver is affected by factors such as US economic data, Fed officials' statements, and inventory changes. In the base metals market, copper, aluminum, and other metals are affected by market risk preferences, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes. In the black industry, steel, iron ore, and other products are affected by factors such as supply - demand balance and cost changes. In the agricultural products market, factors such as supply - demand balance, weather, and policies affect the prices of soybeans, corn, and other products. In the energy and chemical industry, factors such as new device production, demand, and geopolitical risks affect the prices of LLDPE, PVC, and other products [2][4][7]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - **Gold**: Overnight, precious metal prices rose and then fell, with London gold reaching $4000/ounce. The US included copper and silver in the new key minerals list, and US employment data was weak. Domestic gold ETF inflows were 1.1 tons. Suggest buying at the lower support level [2]. - **Silver**: Multiple factors influenced the market, and it is recommended to reduce long positions [2]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Copper prices oscillated. The market risk preference declined, and the supply of copper ore remained tight. It is recommended to treat it with an interval - oscillation mindset in the short term [4]. - **Aluminum**: The price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 1.10%. Supply increased slightly, and demand decreased slightly. Pay attention to the de - stocking of aluminum ingots [4]. - **Alumina**: The price of the alumina main contract increased by 0.54%. Supply decreased due to environmental protection, and demand remained high. The market is in an oversupply pattern, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [5]. - **Zinc**: The price of the zinc main contract increased slightly. Supply increased, and demand was in the off - season. It is recommended to sell short at high prices [5]. - **Lead**: The price of the lead main contract decreased slightly. Supply was marginally loose, and demand was mixed. It is recommended to operate within an interval [5]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of the main contract increased. Supply decreased, and demand was supported by polysilicon. The price is expected to operate between 8600 - 9400, and it is recommended to wait and see [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of the main contract increased. Supply was expected to increase, and demand was high. It is recommended to try to buy on dips [6]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The price of the main contract increased slightly. Supply decreased, and demand was under pressure. It is recommended to buy on dips or sell put options [6]. - **Tin**: Tin prices oscillated weakly. Market risk preferences fluctuated, and supply was expected to ease. It is recommended to use an interval - oscillation mindset in the short term [6]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The price of the rebar main contract increased. Supply and demand weakened marginally, and the futures price was at a high valuation. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of the iron ore main contract decreased. Supply and demand were neutral and deteriorated marginally. It is recommended to exit and wait, and aggressive investors can try to short [7]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of the coking coal main contract decreased slightly. Supply and demand were affected by steel production, and the futures price was at a high valuation. It is recommended to exit and wait, and aggressive investors can try to short [8]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans may enter an oscillation phase. Domestic supply is relatively loose, and the medium - term trend depends on tariff policies and production in the producing areas [9]. - **Corn**: Corn futures prices rose, and spot prices were mixed. New grain is about to be listed, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [9]. - **Sugar**: The price of the Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract increased slightly. Internationally, sugar production is expected to increase, and it is recommended to short in the futures market and sell call options [9]. - **Cotton**: International cotton prices fell, and domestic cotton prices oscillated weakly. It is recommended to wait and see within the 13400 - 13700 range [9]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil market rebounded. Supply increased, and demand increased slightly. The market is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to pay attention to production and policies [10]. - **Eggs**: Egg futures and spot prices rose. Supply decreased, and demand increased seasonally. Prices are expected to oscillate strongly [10]. - **Pigs**: Pig futures prices oscillated narrowly, and spot prices were mixed. Supply is sufficient, and prices are expected to be weak [10]. - **Apples**: The price of the main contract decreased slightly. Different regions have different situations, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The price of the LLDPE main contract continued to decline slightly. Supply pressure increased but at a slower pace, and demand was in the off - season. It is recommended to short at high prices in the medium - long term [11]. - **PVC**: The price of the PVC main contract decreased. Supply increased, and demand was weak. It is recommended to short or do a reverse spread [12]. - **PTA**: PX supply increased, and PTA supply pressure was high in the medium - long term. It is recommended to take profit on long positions and short the processing fee in the far - month contracts [12]. - **Glass**: The price of the glass main contract decreased. Supply decreased due to production line shutdowns, and demand improved. It is recommended to do a reverse spread [12]. - **PP**: The price of the PP main contract continued to decline slightly. Supply increased, and demand was in the off - season. It is recommended to short at high prices in the medium - long term [12]. - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices fell. Supply pressure increased, and demand was seasonally weak. Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, and it can be shorted at high prices if Russian oil production reduction is less than 500,000 barrels per day [13]. - **Styrene**: The price of the styrene main contract continued to decline slightly. Supply and demand were weak, and it is recommended to short at high prices in the medium - long term [13]. - **Soda Ash**: The price of the soda ash main contract increased. Supply and demand were balanced, and it is recommended to wait and see [13].