1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trade policy uncertainty is rising in the short - term, with the dollar index expected to decline; the stock market is in a capital - driven market with abundant liquidity, and the bond market will remain volatile until substantial bullish factors such as interest rate cuts materialize [15][18][21]. - In the commodity market, different products have different trends. For example, power coal prices are expected to remain high in the short - term but face seasonal pressure after August; the price of some metals and energy - chemical products is affected by supply - demand, policies, and other factors [3][41]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US Treasury Secretary said trade negotiations are progressing steadily. Gold prices have risen strongly, and the short - term trend is volatile, facing a directional choice [11][12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - Dollar Index) - The US Republican accused the Fed Chairman of perjury, and the White House said Trump may issue more tariff letters before August 1. The dollar index is expected to decline in the short - term [13][15][16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The 7 - month LPR remained unchanged, and the State Council announced the "Housing Rental Regulations". It is recommended to allocate various stock indexes evenly [17][18][19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project started, and the central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation. Before interest rate cuts and other substantial bullish factors, the bond market will remain volatile. It is recommended to sell long positions when the futures rebound and continue to allocate medium - term long positions at low prices [20][21]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills is approaching 1 million tons, and the excellent rate of US soybeans has slightly decreased. The short - term futures price is expected to be volatile [22][23]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The export of Malaysian palm oil decreased from July 1 - 20, while the production increased. It is not recommended to over - short palm oil. Wait for the price to fall and then consider long positions [24][25][28]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The import of syrup and premixed powder decreased in June, and the net short position of ICE raw sugar decreased. The short - term Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the resistance level of 5900 [29][30][32]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The daily output of Indonesia's Dexin Steel exceeded 20,000 tons, and the investment in water conservancy construction increased in the first half of the year. Steel prices are strong in the short - term, but risks should be vigilant after August [33][34][36]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The export of corn starch decreased significantly in June. Starch enterprises are expected to continue to operate at a loss or with low profits, and the opening rate is expected to remain low [37]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in Wuhai is strong. The short - term coking coal futures price is expected to be volatile, waiting for changes in the supply side [38][39]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The auction volume of imported corn decreased on July 22. It is recommended to hold a small number of short positions in new - crop corn and look for opportunities to add positions on rebounds [40]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The social electricity consumption increased by 5.4% in June. The steam coal price is expected to remain high in the short - term, but seasonal pressure should be noted after August [41][42]. 3.2.9 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The investment in water conservancy construction increased in the first half of the year. The long - term upward pressure on iron ore prices is limited, and short - term fluctuations may intensify [43][44]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The export of Chinese photovoltaic modules decreased in June. It is recommended to go long at low prices, and the price is expected to run at a low level within the price limit [45][46][47]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The export of industrial silicon increased in June. The short - term industrial silicon is expected to be strong, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production of large factories in Xinjiang [48][49]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The import of copper ore, scrap copper, and refined copper changed in June. The copper price is expected to be volatile and strong, and it is recommended to wait and see [50][52][54]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Lifezone released a feasibility study report on its nickel project. The short - term nickel price may be strong, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities in the medium - term [55][56][57]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The import of lithium carbonate and lithium spodumene decreased in June, and Yichun Yinli will conduct maintenance. It is recommended to stop profiting from long positions and consider reverse arbitrage [58][60][62]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead spread was at a discount on July 18, and the export of lead - acid batteries decreased in June. It is recommended to buy at low prices in the short - term [63][64][65]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The export of die - cast zinc alloy and galvanized sheets increased, and the import of zinc concentrate increased in the first half of the year. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities in the near - month spread [66][67][69]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The FOB price of Middle - East frozen LPG decreased. The fundamentals are weak, and there is insufficient upward driving force [70][71][72]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Turkey will terminate the Iraq oil pipeline agreement in July 2026. The short - term crude oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range [73][74]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong decreased locally on July 21. It is difficult for the caustic soda price to continue rising [75][77][78]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp increased. The upward space of the pulp price is limited due to unchanged supply - demand [79][80]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC powder increased. The PVC price may have limited upward movement due to inventory accumulation [81]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Asphalt) - The inventory of asphalt refineries decreased. It is recommended to wait and see as the asphalt price needs oil price as a driving force [82][83]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - The PX price increased slightly on July 21. The short - term PX price is expected to be volatile and strong [84]. 3.2.24 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The spot basis of PTA decreased significantly. The PTA price may be strong in the short - term following the domestic commodity market [85][86]. 3.2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - The export of urea increased in June. The urea price may be slightly strong, oscillating around 1700 [87][88]. 3.2.26 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - The port inventory of styrene increased. The short - term styrene price is affected by macro factors, and the pure benzene price is expected to oscillate and repair [89][90]. 3.2.27 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotation of bottle chip factories increased slightly. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to expand the processing fee of bottle chips by going long at low prices [90][91]. 3.2.28 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The inventory of soda ash manufacturers decreased. It is risky to short - sell in the short - term, and wait for policy guidance [92][93]. 3.2.29 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Hubei increased on July 21. It is recommended to consider the cross - variety arbitrage strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash [94].

Group 1 - The article highlights that most commodities have risen, emphasizing the importance of policy determination [1] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has fallen below the 200-day moving average, currently at 4.35%, marking a decline for the fourth consecutive trading day [1] - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has announced the listing of propylene futures contracts with a benchmark price of 6350 CNY per ton [1] Group 2 - U.S. stock indices have primarily risen, with the construction materials sector leading gains while the banking sector lagged [2] - The market's trading volume reached 1.73 trillion CNY, with a decrease in financing balance by 1.99 billion CNY to 1.889167 trillion CNY [2] - The A-share market is considered to have high investment value, particularly the CSI 500 and CSI 1000, which are supported by technology policies [2] Group 3 - The average daily pig iron output has increased by 26,300 tons week-on-week, marking the largest weekly increase in recent weeks [3] - Coking coal inventory at steel and coking plants has risen to 17.2 million tons, marking a four-week consecutive increase [3] - The market anticipates further policy support, with potential supply constraints due to enhanced safety and environmental regulations ahead of the September 3 military parade [3] Group 4 - Gold and silver have strengthened due to rising market risk aversion ahead of new tariff deadlines, alongside a weakening dollar and U.S. Treasury yields [4] - Recent economic data suggests that the impact of tariff policies may be less severe than previously feared, but caution is advised regarding potential future tariff threats [4] - The long-term support for gold remains strong due to continued purchases by the People's Bank of China [4] Group 5 - Fitch Ratings has downgraded the outlook for 25% of U.S. industries to "negative" due to increased uncertainty and expected prolonged high interest rates [5] - China's LPR remained unchanged for the second consecutive month, with the one-year rate at 3.0% and the five-year rate at 3.5% [6] - The National Energy Administration reported a 5.4% year-on-year increase in electricity consumption in June, with a cumulative increase of 3.7% for the first half of the year [7]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The core CPI has shown continuous recovery since February, with a year-on-year increase of 0.7% in June, marking a 0.1 percentage point expansion from the previous month, the highest in nearly 14 months [3] - The increase in gold prices, the "old-for-new" policy supporting durable goods prices, and a moderate recovery in service prices are the main drivers of the core CPI's sustained recovery [3] - Looking ahead, while service prices have room for recovery, the momentum may slow down due to various factors including high base effects and early release of durable goods demand [3][5] Group 2: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Components - Service prices have shown a continuous recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 0.5% in June, and a cumulative growth rate of 0.4% from January to June [6] - The rental price decline has narrowed, positively impacting the core CPI, as rental demand is closely related to employment conditions, particularly for recent graduates [6][7] - The upcoming summer travel season is expected to boost service prices, but the pressure on the rental market may increase due to the high number of graduates entering the job market [7] Group 3: Global Economic and Trade Dynamics - The report discusses the uncertainty in the Middle East and its potential impact on global supply chains, emphasizing the need for diversification in import sources for products heavily reliant on Middle Eastern imports [14][15] - The report highlights that the geopolitical situation in the Middle East could lead to significant supply risks, particularly for energy and chemical products, affecting downstream manufacturing sectors in China [15][17] Group 4: AI Industry Insights - The AI sector in the U.S. has seen a significant upward trend, with the AI industry rising by 80.19% since the beginning of 2024, outperforming the Nasdaq index, which increased by 38.47% in the same period [25] - Domestic AI tools are rapidly gaining market share through low pricing strategies, which is expected to lead to increased user adoption and long-term profitability [26] - The report suggests that the development of AI applications will have transformative effects across various industries, with a notable acceleration in B-end commercialization in the media sector [27]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [10]. - China's equity assets are still promising in the long - term, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [8]. - For most commodities, the market situation is complex, and different trading strategies should be adopted according to the specific fundamentals of each commodity, such as waiting for opportunities to short, going long at low positions, or temporarily observing. 3. Summary by Commodity 3.1 Fixed - Income Products - **Treasury Bonds**: The previous trading day saw most treasury bond futures close higher. The current macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. It is expected that there will be no trending market, and caution should be maintained [5][6]. 3.2 Equity - Related Products - **Stock Index Futures**: The previous trading day saw mixed performance in stock index futures. The domestic economic situation is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. However, due to the low valuation of domestic assets and the resilience of the Chinese economy, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [7][8][9]. 3.3 Precious Metals - **Precious Metals**: The previous trading day saw a slight decline in the closing price of the gold main contract and a slight increase in the silver main contract. The current global trade and financial environment is complex, and factors such as "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [10][11]. 3.4 Base Metals - **Copper**: The previous trading day saw Shanghai copper fluctuate slightly. The US imposing additional tariffs on copper has been confirmed, which has put downward pressure on Shanghai copper prices. After the decline, the price has gradually stabilized. It is advisable to temporarily observe the main contract of Shanghai copper [57][58]. - **Tin**: The previous trading day saw Shanghai tin fluctuate. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the consumption situation is good. The inventory at home and abroad is showing a downward trend. Overall, the supply is still in short supply [59]. - **Nickel**: The previous trading day saw Shanghai nickel rise. The price of the ore end has weakened, and the actual consumption is still not optimistic. The refined nickel is still in an oversupply situation, and the nickel price is expected to fluctuate [60]. 3.5 Ferrous Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The previous trading day saw a slight rebound in rebar and hot - rolled coil futures. Although the important meeting at the beginning of the month has triggered expectations of supply contraction, the downward trend of the real estate industry and over - capacity are still suppressing the price. The price rebound space may be limited. It is advisable for investors to wait patiently for shorting opportunities after the rebound and set appropriate stop - profits [12][13]. - **Iron Ore**: The previous trading day saw a slight increase in iron ore futures. Policy expectations have boosted the price, but the supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally. The price valuation is relatively high. Technically, it may continue to be strong in the short - term. It is advisable for investors to pay attention to buying opportunities at low positions and set stop - profits in time [15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The previous trading day saw a late - session rally in coking coal and coke futures. The important meeting at the beginning of the month has triggered expectations of supply contraction, but in reality, the coal mine start - up rate is rising, and the steel mill's procurement willingness is not strong. Technically, it may break through the previous high and continue to rise. It is advisable for investors to wait patiently for appropriate mid - term shorting entry points and set stop - profits in time [17][18]. - **Ferroalloys**: The previous trading day saw the manganese - silicon and silicon - iron main contracts close higher. The supply of ferroalloys is still high, and the demand is weak. After entering the off - season, the short - term demand has peaked, and the overall price is under pressure. If the spot losses continue to expand recently, it is advisable to consider low - value out - of - the - money call options [20]. 3.6 Energy Products - **Crude Oil**: The previous trading day saw INE crude oil open low and close high, supported by the 10 - day moving average. The decline in US active rig counts and summer oil demand support oil prices, but tariff frictions and sanctions against Russia still restrict oil prices. It is advisable to temporarily observe the main contract of crude oil [21][22][23]. - **Fuel Oil**: The previous trading day saw fuel oil rise and then fall, showing a weak trend. The supply of fuel oil in Asia is abundant, and trade frictions are intensifying, which is negative for fuel oil prices. It is advisable to pay attention to shorting opportunities in the main contract of fuel oil [24][25][27]. 3.7 Chemical Products - **Synthetic Rubber**: The previous trading day saw the synthetic rubber main contract close higher. The raw material price has fallen, and the operating profit has turned positive. The supply - demand situation is short - term loose. It is advisable to wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [28][29]. - **Natural Rubber**: The previous trading day saw the natural rubber main contract and 20 - rubber main contract close higher. It is expected that the natural rubber market will maintain a relatively strong oscillation next week. It is advisable to pay attention to mid - term long - position opportunities [30][31]. - **PVC**: The previous trading day saw the PVC main contract close slightly higher. The current PVC market still has an oversupply situation, but the room for further decline is limited, and it may enter a bottom - oscillation stage [32][33][36]. - **Urea**: The previous trading day saw the urea main contract close higher. The short - term domestic urea market will fluctuate narrowly, waiting for the implementation of policies and demand. It is advisable to treat it as oscillating in the short - term and bullish in the medium - term [37][38]. - **Para - Xylene (PX)**: The previous trading day saw the PX2509 main contract rise. The short - term supply - demand balance of PX remains tight, but the support from crude oil costs is slightly insufficient. It is advisable to participate cautiously, pay attention to the changes in crude oil costs, and control risks [39][40]. - **PTA**: The previous trading day saw the PTA2509 main contract rise. The short - term supply of PTA increases, the demand weakens, and the cost support from crude oil is slightly insufficient. However, the processing fee of PTA has dropped to a low level, and subsequent production cuts may increase. It is advisable to participate within a range and pay attention to the opportunity to expand the processing fee when it is low [41]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The previous trading day saw the ethylene glycol main contract rise. The supply pressure has been relieved recently, and the inventory has decreased and is at a low level. It is advisable to be cautious about the downward space and participate within a range, paying attention to port inventory and import changes [42][43]. - **Short - Fiber**: The previous trading day saw the short - fiber 2509 main contract fluctuate and adjust. The short - term fundamentals of short - fiber lack driving forces, and some factories have cut production. The processing fee is gradually recovering. It is advisable to be cautious about the space for the repair of the processing spread and pay attention to cost changes and the intensity of plant production cuts [44]. - **Bottle Chips**: The previous trading day saw the bottle chips 2509 main contract rise. Recently, the raw material price has fluctuated, and the support is slightly insufficient. The number of bottle chip plant overhauls has increased, and the inventory has decreased. It is expected that the market will follow the cost - end oscillation. It is advisable to participate cautiously and pay attention to cost price changes [45][46]. - **Soda Ash**: The previous trading day saw the main 2509 contract of soda ash close higher. The short - term soda ash market is expected to oscillate and adjust. In the long - term, the oversupply situation is difficult to alleviate. It is advisable to be rational and not over - pursue high prices or short [47]. - **Glass**: The previous trading day saw the main 2509 contract of glass close higher. The actual supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious driving forces. The price increase yesterday was mainly due to the pull of the energy sector such as coking coal, and it is expected to rebound in the short - term [48][49]. - **Caustic Soda**: The previous trading day saw the main 2509 contract of caustic soda close lower. The short - term price may have some support, but the overall positive support is still relatively limited [50][51]. - **Pulp**: The previous trading day saw the main 2509 contract of pulp close higher. The supply of pulp still tends to expand, and the demand in the market is weak. The overall pulp price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [53]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The previous trading day saw the lithium carbonate main contract close higher. Although there are expectations of supply - side reforms and production cuts by enterprises, the supply - demand pattern has not changed, and the inventory remains high. It is not advisable for investors to chase high prices [55][56]. 3.8 Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: The previous trading day saw soybean oil and soybean meal futures close higher. The domestic soybean supply is relatively loose, and the import cost has increased. It is advisable to consider long - position opportunities in the low - support range for soybean meal after adjustment, and for soybean oil, consider call option opportunities in the support range after the price decline [61][62]. - **Palm Oil**: The previous trading day saw the Malaysian palm oil futures close lower. The export data of Malaysian palm oil in July 1 - 15 was weak, and the domestic palm oil inventory has increased. It is advisable to consider the opportunity to widen the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [63][64]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The previous trading day saw the Canadian rapeseed futures close higher. The domestic rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil are all in the process of destocking. It is advisable to consider long - position opportunities in rapeseed products [65][66]. - **Cotton**: The previous trading day saw domestic Zheng cotton rebound to a new high. The US Department of Agriculture's July report raised the estimates of US cotton production and global inventory. The global supply - demand is expected to remain loose, and it is advisable to observe [67][68][70]. - **Sugar**: The previous trading day saw domestic Zheng sugar fluctuate. The production forecast in Brazil has been lowered. The domestic inventory is low, and the supply - demand contradiction is not sharp. It is advisable to observe [71][72]. - **Apples**: The previous trading day saw domestic apple futures rise slightly. The expected production reduction has been falsified, and the national apple production is expected to increase slightly. It is advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities when the price is high [73][75][76]. - **Hogs**: The previous trading day saw the main contract of hogs close lower. The short - term price is expected to be stable with narrow adjustments. In the middle of the month, the group - farm slaughter volume has recovered, and the demand in the summer off - season is still weak. It is advisable to hold previous short positions [77][78]. - **Eggs**: The previous trading day saw the main contract of eggs close lower. The supply of eggs in July is expected to continue to increase year - on - year. It is advisable to consider a 9 - 10 reverse spread [79][80]. - **Corn and Starch**: The previous trading day saw the corn main contract and the corn starch main contract close higher. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, and the consumption is warming up. The inventory pressure has decreased. It is advisable to observe. The production and demand of corn starch are both weak, and it mainly follows the corn market [81][82]. 3.9 Logs - **Logs**: The previous trading day saw the main 2509 contract of logs close higher. It is expected to oscillate and adjust before the first delivery. The main 09 and far - month contracts are mainly influenced by positive sentiment, but the actual quoted price of standard products has not increased significantly [83][86].

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between Everbright Bank and Ordos Group has evolved over nearly 20 years, showcasing the latter's innovation and industrial upgrades, particularly in the textile and energy sectors [2][3]. Group 1: Company Overview - Ordos Group operates a modern cashmere industry park in Inner Mongolia, processing high-quality cashmere through over 100 procedures to produce premium cashmere garments for global markets [1]. - The brand "Ordos" has maintained its position as the top brand in the textile and apparel industry for 19 consecutive years [2]. Group 2: Financial Collaboration - Everbright Bank's cooperation with Ordos Group has transitioned from a single business model of 340 million yuan in working capital loans to a diversified financial service model addressing various corporate needs, with total credit now reaching 7.5 billion yuan [3]. - The partnership has expanded from one subsidiary to eleven, covering the entire production process from supply to sales, thereby enhancing financial support for Ordos Group [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Everbright Bank plans to support Ordos Group's vision of creating a world-class sustainable cashmere fashion industry and a high-tech green circular industry, contributing to the long-term development of the company [5]. - The bank aims to increase its financial services to the private sector, with a target of approving 19.4 billion yuan in credit by 2025, focusing on high-quality development and transformation of traditional industries [5].

Core Viewpoint - China National Petroleum Corporation Capital Co., Ltd. (CNPC Capital) and Kunlun Capital are focusing on building an integrated ecosystem for industrial investment and financing, emphasizing the importance of "industrial demand" in their collaboration [1] Group 1: Industry Context - The energy industry is characterized by its complexity and extensive financial needs, requiring a variety of financing channels and tools to support systemic transformation [1] - Compared to traditional finance, industrial finance should enhance resource integration and value addition to help achieve goals such as maintaining industrial safety, driving innovation, optimizing structure, and promoting upgrades [1] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - CNPC Capital and Kunlun Capital are committed to improving efficiency and reducing carbon emissions in the oil and gas chemical industry through capital integration, creating a "cloud ladder" for development between CNPC and invested enterprises [1] - Regular supply-demand matching lists and communication activities will be organized to strengthen business cooperation and enhance the resilience of the industrial supply chain [1] Group 3: Resource Integration - The companies are integrating research, industry, capital, and financial resources to promote deep integration of innovation, industry, and funding chains, facilitating the flow of resources across units [2] - A full lifecycle empowerment system is being constructed to assist in the incubation, transformation, and industrialization of advanced technological achievements [2] Group 4: Investment Strategy - Kunlun Capital is employing a "fund + direct investment" dual-driven model, focusing on investments in emerging industries such as new energy, new materials, green environmental protection, and high-end intelligent manufacturing [2] - The company is exploring new paths for industry development through selective investment in mature projects and identifying strategic acquisition opportunities [2] Group 5: Financial Services - CNPC Capital aims to leverage its comprehensive financial licenses and extensive service network to enrich its financial product offerings, providing tailored and competitive "one-stop" comprehensive financial services for industrial units and invested enterprises [2]

行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2024 年 7 月 16 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：李金（甲醇） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、纯碱、玻璃行情回顾与操作建议 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfuture ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors including finance and commodities. In the financial sector, factors such as inflation data, trade agreements, and central bank policies influence the performance of assets like gold, the US dollar, and stocks. In the commodity sector, supply - demand dynamics, production data, and policy changes impact prices of metals, energy, and agricultural products. Overall, different assets are expected to have diverse trends such as some being in a short - term upward movement, some in a downward trend, and others in a state of oscillation [1][2][3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Nvidia is applying to resell H20 GPUs, and the US government assures to grant the license. US CPI rebounded in June, with inflation data influencing gold prices. Gold is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [13][14]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump reached a trade deal with Indonesia, lowering the tariff rate to 19%. US CPI data in June was in line with expectations, with inflation rising and the US dollar index expected to continue rising in the short term [15][16]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Central Urban Work Conference was held, emphasizing the transformation of urban development. China's Q2 GDP growth was 5.2%. It is recommended to allocate various stock indices evenly [18][19]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Trump announced a trade deal with Indonesia, and US core CPI in June rose 2.9% year - on - year. The impact of tariffs is emerging, and the stock index is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to control positions carefully [21][23]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 3425 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. China's Q2 GDP growth was 5.2%, higher than expected. The bond market is expected to turn stronger gradually in the coming months [25][27]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - On July 15, the price difference between imported and domestic steam coal was presented. Due to high - temperature weather, coal prices are expected to remain strong in the short term [30]. 2.2 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Rio Tinto's Q2 iron ore production and shipment data were released. The iron ore price is expected to oscillate as the market sentiment eases [31]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - NOPA's June soybean crushing was higher than expected. The price of soybean meal is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to US soybean产区 weather and Sino - US relations [33][34]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazil's sugar export in the first two weeks of July decreased. Pakistan canceled a large - scale sugar import tender. The sugar price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the processing sugar quotation [35][38]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 15 decreased by 6.16% month - on - month. The oil market is expected to decline slightly, and a YP spread widening strategy can be considered [41]. 2.6 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - China's infrastructure investment in H1 increased by 4.6%. Steel prices are expected to have limited upward space, and a rebound hedging strategy is recommended for the spot market [42][44]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Hogs) - New Hope's expected H1 2025 net profit increased. The hog price is expected to oscillate with an upward bias, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended for the 09 contract [46][47]. 2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Corn starch enterprises in different regions had different profit situations. The starch price is expected to be stable, and the CS - C spread has high uncertainty [48]. 2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The成交 rate of the corn auction on July 15 decreased. Corn prices are expected to oscillate, and short positions on new - crop corn can be considered [49][51]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead spread was presented. The lead price is expected to have support at the moving average, and long positions can be considered on dips [52]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - A zinc smelter in central China plans to conduct maintenance in August. The zinc price is expected to be under pressure, and short - selling opportunities can be considered [54][55]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Lockheed Martin plans to restart seabed mining. China's copper production increased. The copper price is expected to be under pressure in the short term [57][59]. 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia and the EU have no disputes over nickel mining policies. The nickel price is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term, and short - selling opportunities can be considered [61][63]. 2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Sayona's lithium project drilling results were positive. Lithium carbonate is expected to be strong in the short term, and long positions on dips can be considered [64]. 2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU plans to expand the CBAM scope. The CEA price is expected to oscillate in the short term [66]. 2.16 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - On July 15, the PX price declined. The PX price is expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short term [68]. 2.17 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot price declined, and the basis was stable. The PTA price is expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short term [70][72]. 2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - A styrene plant in Shandong resumed production. The styrene price is expected to oscillate downward, and potential layout opportunities should be observed [73]. 2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle chip factories are implementing production cuts. The bottle chip price is expected to have a short - term relief in supply pressure, and opportunities to expand the processing margin can be considered [74][77]. 2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong increased sporadically. The caustic soda price is expected to have difficulty rising further after the basis has been adjusted [77][78]. 2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The imported wood pulp price was stable. The pulp price is expected to have limited upward space as the supply - demand situation remains unchanged [79][80]. 2.22 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC powder market was slightly weaker. The PVC price is expected to have limited upward space as the fundamentals are weakening [81][82]. 2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float glass price in the Shahe market was stable. The glass price is expected to have a trading range of [900, 1100] yuan/ton, and a long - glass short - soda ash strategy is recommended [83][84]. 2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market in North China was stable. The soda ash price is expected to be sold short on rallies in the medium term [85][86]. 2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - OPEC's June production increased, and China's June crude oil processing volume rebounded. The crude oil price is expected to oscillate in the short term [87][88]. 2.26 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - Shipping companies adjusted their US - East routes. The container freight rate is expected to have short - selling opportunities for the EC2510 contract and 10 - 12 reverse spread opportunities [90][92].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Equity Index**: Overseas, focus on the impact of US tariffs; domestically, watch the "Central Political Bureau Meeting" in July. Suggest going long on IF index futures on dips [2][3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Expect interest rates to decline in the long - term. Consider the stock - bond seesaw effect and go long on dips [4][5]. - **Precious Metals**: Maintain a bullish view on silver. Suggest going long on silver and provide reference price ranges for Shanghai gold and silver futures [6]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Most non - ferrous metals are expected to be weak. For example, copper, aluminum, and zinc are under pressure, while lead shows relative strength [8][9][10]. - **Black Building Materials**: Steel prices may be affected by policies and demand. Iron ore prices are short - term strong. Glass and soda ash have different trends based on supply and demand [21][23][25]. - **Energy Chemicals**: Different energy chemicals have different trends. For example, rubber may be bullish in the medium - term, while crude oil is in a multi - empty game [34][39]. - **Agricultural Products**: The livestock market is in a stalemate, and the egg market is expected to be stable. The soybean meal market is multi - empty intertwined, and the oil market is expected to fluctuate [52][53][55]. 3. Summary by Category Macro - financial - **Equity Index**: In June, M2, M1, and M0 had different growth rates. The central bank will adjust policies according to the situation. The central bank will conduct a 1400 - billion - yuan repurchase operation. Overseas, focus on US tariffs; domestically, watch the July meeting. Suggest going long on IF index futures on dips [2][3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On Monday, bond futures declined. In June, social financing and money supply grew. The central bank will conduct a 1400 - billion - yuan repurchase operation. China's exports and imports increased in June. Expect interest rates to decline in the long - term, and consider the stock - bond seesaw effect [4][5]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices declined slightly. Fed officials' statements on interest rate cuts are mixed. Maintain a bullish view on silver and provide reference price ranges for Shanghai gold and silver futures [6]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The US plans to impose a 50% tariff on copper. LME and domestic inventories increased. Expect copper prices to be weak and volatile [8]. - **Aluminum**: Domestic aluminum ingot inventories increased more than expected. Expect aluminum prices to be weak in the short - term [9]. - **Zinc**: Domestic zinc ore supply is loose. Zinc prices are expected to be bearish in the long - term and fluctuate in the short - term [10][11]. - **Lead**: Lead supply is relatively loose, but battery demand is improving. LME lead shows strength, while Shanghai lead's upside is limited [12]. - **Nickel**: Stainless steel demand is weak, and nickel iron prices are under pressure. Suggest going short on nickel on rallies [13]. - **Tin**: Supply is low, and demand is weak. Expect tin prices to be weak and volatile [14]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Lithium prices rebounded. Supply is expected to remain high. Suggest paying attention to news and market sentiment [15]. - **Alumina**: Alumina prices rose slightly. Suggest going short on rallies considering the over - capacity situation [16]. - **Stainless Steel**: It is the traditional off - season for stainless steel. Supply exceeds demand, and prices are expected to be weak [17]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: It is the off - season. Supply and demand are weak. Prices face resistance [18][19]. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices rose slightly. Supply and demand decreased, and inventories are at a low level. Follow policy signals and demand recovery [21][22]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices rose slightly. Supply is stable, and demand decreased. Expect prices to be strong in the short - term [23][24]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass prices rebounded due to policy expectations. Soda ash prices are expected to be weak due to supply and inventory pressure [25][26]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: Prices rose slightly. Suggest waiting and watching due to the uncertain trend [27]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Prices rose. The industry has over - supply and insufficient demand. Suggest using the rebound for hedging [31][32]. Energy Chemicals - **Rubber**: NR and RU rose significantly. Suggest a bullish medium - term view and a neutral - to - bullish short - term view [34][38]. - **Crude Oil**: WTI and Brent crude oil prices declined, while INE crude oil prices rose. The market is in a multi - empty game. Suggest waiting and watching [39]. - **Methanol**: Prices are expected to be weak due to supply and demand. Suggest waiting and watching [40]. - **Urea**: Prices have support but limited upside. Suggest going long on dips [41]. - **Styrene**: Prices may follow the cost side. BZN is expected to repair [42]. - **PVC**: Supply exceeds demand. Prices are expected to be weak [44]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply and demand are changing. Prices are expected to be strong in the short - term [45]. - **PTA**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is under pressure. Suggest going long on dips following PX [46]. - **Para - xylene**: PX is expected to destock in the third quarter. Suggest going long on dips following crude oil [47]. - **Polyethylene PE**: Prices may fluctuate due to trade policies and inventory [48]. - **Polypropylene PP**: Prices are expected to be bearish in July. LL - PP spread may widen [50]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: Pig prices may be stable or decline. Short - term long positions may have space, but there are medium - term risks [52]. - **Eggs**: Egg prices are expected to be stable. Suggest waiting for a rebound to go short [53]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: US soybeans are under pressure, and domestic soybean meal is multi - empty intertwined. Suggest going long on dips [54][56]. - **Oils**: EPA policy is positive, but there are still bearish factors. Suggest a wait - and - see approach [57][59]. - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar prices may decline. Import pressure may increase [60][61]. - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton prices may fluctuate. There are potential bearish factors [62].

1. Report Summary - The report analyzes the financial and commodity markets on July 15, 2025, covering macro - strategies, commodities, and shipping. It provides news, analysis, and investment advice for each sector. 2. Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 3. Core Views - China's economic data shows positive trends, with June exports increasing by 5.8% and imports by 1.1%. The overall economic situation has improved, and comprehensive policies to address "involution" are gradually taking effect [21][20] - Trump's tariff threat against Russia is less effective, and the US dollar index continues to rebound [14][15] - The short - term bond market is weak, but there is long - term optimism, suggesting to buy mid - term long positions on dips [27][28] - The steel price remains volatile, supported by "anti - involution" policies, but caution is needed when chasing long positions [43] - The price of palm oil may correct, suggesting to buy long positions on dips or hedge with short positions on other oils [36] 4. Summary by Category 4.1 Financial News and Reviews - **Macro - strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - Dollar Index)**: Hasset is a leading candidate for the next Fed Chair. Trump is open to EU trade talks and threatens Russia with 100% tariffs. The dollar index is expected to strengthen in the short term [13][14][15] - **Macro - strategy (US Stock Index Futures)**: Trump threatens Russia with high tariffs, and the EU may impose counter - tariffs on $72 billion of US goods. Market volatility may increase, and the index valuation center may move up [16][17][18] - **Macro - strategy (Stock Index Futures)**: Comprehensive policies to address "involution" are gradually taking effect, and China's June exports and imports are showing positive growth, which is expected to boost market sentiment [20][21] - **Macro - strategy (Treasury Bond Futures)**: Social financing data is strong, and the bond market is weak in the short term but optimistic in the long term. It is recommended to buy mid - term long positions on dips [27][28] 4.2 Commodity News and Reviews - **Black Metal (Steam Coal)**: High summer temperatures increase coal consumption, and coal prices are expected to remain strong in the short term [29] - **Black Metal (Iron Ore)**: Iron ore prices are stable, with mild fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see [30] - **Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal)**: US soybean growth conditions are better than expected, and domestic oil mills' soybean meal inventory is rising. The market is concerned about US tariff policies and NOPA's monthly report [31][32] - **Agricultural Products (Palm Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Kernel Oil)**: Indian palm oil imports have increased significantly, and domestic palm oil inventory is rising. There is a risk of correction in the short term, and it is recommended to buy long positions on dips [34][35][36] - **Agricultural Products (Cotton)**: India has sold more than half of its MSP - purchased cotton. China's textile exports are mixed, and the downstream industry is in a downturn, which may limit the upward momentum of cotton prices [37][39][40] - **Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Steel prices are volatile, and "anti - involution" policies support prices in the short term. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing long positions [43] - **Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke)**: Coking coal prices are rising, mainly driven by macro factors. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [45][46] - **Agricultural Products (Corn Starch)**: Corn starch prices are slightly down, and demand is loosening. The uncertainty of CS - C in the future is high [47] - **Agricultural Products (Corn)**: Corn imports are down year - to - date, and spot prices are falling. It is recommended to pay attention to import auctions and inventory [48][49] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Copper)**: Luoyang Molybdenum's profit is expected to increase significantly in the first half of the year. The US tariff policy and inflation data will affect copper prices, which are expected to be volatile in the short term [52][55] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Lead)**: The lead market is in a state of both supply and demand increase, and prices are expected to rise. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to the investigation in Gansu [56][57] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate)**: Yichun's policy has increased supply uncertainty, and lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [59] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc)**: Zinc fundamentals are weakening, but the short - term macro sentiment is strong. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and protect previous short positions [63][64] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel)**: Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate in a low - level range in the short term and decline in the medium - term [66][67] - **Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil)**: Trump pressures Russia to cease fire, and oil prices are expected to fluctuate [68] - **Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas)**: The domestic market is weak, and prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [70][72] - **Energy Chemicals (Asphalt)**: Asphalt prices are expected to rise slightly [73] - **Energy Chemicals (PX)**: PX prices have rebounded, and the medium - long - term de - stocking pattern continues. It is recommended to pay attention to the implementation of maintenance plans [74][75] - **Energy Chemicals (PTA)**: PTA prices are expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term [78][79] - **Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda)**: The caustic soda market is rising, but it may be difficult to continue rising [80][81] - **Energy Chemicals (Paper Pulp)**: Pulp prices are driven up by the market, but the upward space is limited [82][83] - **Energy Chemicals (PVC)**: PVC prices are rebounding, but the upward space is limited [84] - **Energy Chemicals (Urea)**: Urea exports are accelerating, and the market is expected to fluctuate [86][87] - **Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips)**: Bottle chip factories are implementing production cuts, and it is recommended to buy on dips to expand processing fees [89] - **Energy Chemicals (Styrene)**: The pure benzene market is expected to improve in July - August, but the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to wait for a safer valuation [91] - **Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate)**: China's imports and exports are growing, and the SCFIS (European Line) index is rising. The futures valuation center of the European line may move up [93][94]