Market Overview - The A-share market showed a slight increase with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.27%, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index experienced minor declines. The North Exchange 50 Index increased by 0.55%. Overall trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.48 trillion, down by over 200 billion from the previous day, indicating a temporary market consolidation [1][3]. Sector Performance - Despite minor index fluctuations, over 3,000 stocks saw gains, suggesting a generally positive performance among individual stocks. The robot concept sector stood out, with humanoid robots and reducers experiencing significant gains, driven by market optimism regarding the integration of AI and manufacturing, supported by government policies [3]. - The precious metals sector also performed well, with Hunan Silver hitting the daily limit and Zhongjin Gold reaching near the limit during trading. This is attributed to high international gold prices and increased investor interest due to inflation expectations [3]. - The paper industry saw a sudden surge in the afternoon, with companies like Forest Packaging and Yibin Paper hitting the daily limit, likely due to anticipated price increases and low industry inventory levels [3]. - The electric power sector experienced high volatility, with companies like Jiantou Energy and Yunnan Energy hitting the daily limit, driven by rising electricity demand as temperatures increase [4]. Market Sentiment - The market reflects a dual sentiment: investors are seeking sectors with policy support and strong earnings expectations, such as robotics and electricity, while gradually withdrawing from previously high-flying sectors lacking earnings support, such as the financial sector and gaming stocks [4][5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For non - ferrous metals, which are in a state of shock and decline, it is recommended to construct a seller's neutral volatility strategy [2] - For the black series, which are in a state of range consolidation and shock, it is suitable to construct a seller's option neutral combination strategy [2] - For precious metals, specifically gold, which is in a state of high - level consolidation and weak decline, it is recommended to construct a spot hedging strategy [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Copper (CU2508): The latest price is 78,320, down 210 (-0.27%), with a trading volume of 8.17 million lots (down 1.76 million lots) and an open interest of 17.87 million lots (down 0.24 million lots) [3] - Aluminum (AL2508): The latest price is 20,645, down 70 (-0.34%), with a trading volume of 12.02 million lots (down 1.87 million lots) and an open interest of 25.51 million lots (down 0.05 million lots) [3] - Zinc (ZN2508): The latest price is 22,215, down 185 (-0.83%), with a trading volume of 12.94 million lots (down 1.71 million lots) and an open interest of 10.76 million lots (down 0.50 million lots) [3] - Other metals follow a similar pattern of price, trading volume, and open - interest changes [3] 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - For copper options, the volume PCR is 0.42 (down 0.11), and the open - interest PCR is 0.60 (up 0.01) [4] - For aluminum options, the volume PCR is 0.71 (down 0.11), and the open - interest PCR is 0.92 (up 0.03) [4] - Different metals show various trends in volume and open - interest PCR [4] 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - Copper: The pressure level is 82,000, and the support level is 78,000 [5] - Aluminum: The pressure level is 20,600, and the support level is 20,000 [5] - Other metals also have corresponding pressure and support levels [5] 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - Copper: The at - the - money implied volatility is 11.81%, the weighted implied volatility is 17.54% (down 0.23%), and the implied - historical volatility difference is - 3.44% [6] - Aluminum: The at - the - money implied volatility is 9.15%, the weighted implied volatility is 12.14% (up 0.27%), and the implied - historical volatility difference is - 1.54% [6] - Each metal has its own implied volatility characteristics [6] 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations for Different Metals 3.5.1 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - volatility seller's option portfolio; Spot long - hedging strategy: Hold spot long + buy put options + sell out - of - the - money call options [8] - **Aluminum/Alumina**: Directional strategy: Bull spread strategy for call options; Volatility strategy: Construct a short call + put option portfolio; Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a spot collar strategy [9] - **Zinc/Lead**: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a short neutral call + put option portfolio; Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a spot collar strategy [9] - **Nickel**: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a short bearish call + put option portfolio; Spot long - hedging strategy: Hold spot long + buy put options [10] - **Tin**: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Short - volatility strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a spot collar strategy [10] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a short neutral call + put option portfolio; Spot long - hedging strategy: Hold spot long + sell call options [11] 3.5.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a long - biased short - volatility option seller's portfolio; Spot hedging strategy: Hold spot long + buy put options + sell out - of - the - money call options [12] 3.5.3 Black Series - **Rebar**: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a short neutral call + put option portfolio; Spot long - hedging strategy: Hold spot long + sell call options [13] - **Iron Ore**: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a short bullish call + put option portfolio; Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy [13] - **Ferroalloys**: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Short - volatility strategy; Spot hedging strategy: None for manganese silicon [14] - **Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon**: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a short neutral call + put option portfolio; Spot long - hedging strategy: Hold spot long + sell call options [14] - **Glass**: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - volatility call + put option portfolio; Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy [15]

Core Viewpoints - The article highlights a significant increase in copper prices due to Trump's unexpected announcement of a 50% tariff on imported electrolytic copper, effective from August 1, which exceeded market expectations [3][5][6] - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, experienced a strong performance, with COMEX gold rising by 0.71% and silver by 5.22% [2][4] Copper Market Analysis - The announcement of the 50% tariff on imported electrolytic copper has led to a substantial rise in COMEX copper prices, with a maximum increase of over 15% during the week [5][6] - As of now, the U.S. has imported over 700,000 tons of electrolytic copper, with expectations to reach 900,000 tons by the time the tariff is implemented, matching last year's total imports [3][7] - The market anticipates that the tariff will redirect copper shipments to Asia or China, potentially increasing pressure on China's electrolytic copper inventory [7][8] - The SHFE copper price has faced downward pressure, testing the support level of 78,000 yuan/ton, while the market expects a significant increase in copper imports to China [7][8] Precious Metals Market Review - The precious metals market saw high volatility, with COMEX gold and silver trading within specific ranges, driven by increased macroeconomic uncertainty and expectations of interest rate cuts [4][23] - Silver prices surged due to tight supply-demand dynamics, reaching levels not seen since 2011, influenced by potential short squeeze risks [4][23] - The article notes that the gold-silver ratio has been declining, indicating stronger performance of silver relative to gold [25] Inventory and Positioning - COMEX gold inventory decreased by approximately 39,000 ounces, while silver inventory fell by about 436 million ounces [40] - The positioning data shows that non-commercial long positions in gold increased, while short positions also rose, indicating a mixed sentiment in the market [45]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" for the stock 兴业银锡 (000426.SZ) with projected EPS growth from 0.86 in 2024 to 1.76 in 2027, and a decreasing PE ratio from 18.90 to 10.05 over the same period [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant misunderstanding regarding silver's price drivers, emphasizing that while industrial demand constitutes nearly 60% of silver's usage, its long-term price correlation is more closely aligned with gold rather than industrial factors [1][11]. - Investment demand is identified as the primary driver of silver's total demand fluctuations, with a noted decline from a peak of 10,522 tons in 2022 to an estimated 5,939 tons in 2024 due to Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. However, the report suggests that there is substantial demand elasticity in this sector, which could counterbalance the impact of rising silver prices on industrial demand [1][18]. - The report argues against the notion that declining photovoltaic (PV) demand will negatively impact silver, citing historical trends where investment demand has compensated for drops in industrial demand. The PV sector contributed 78% of silver's demand growth from 2019 to 2024, despite concerns about slowing growth [2][24][25]. - The report also discusses the silver-gold ratio, suggesting that historical patterns indicate silver often outperforms gold during economic recoveries, even in periods of stagflation. The analysis of past market conditions shows that silver prices can rise significantly, even when industrial demand is under pressure [3][37][38]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Misconceptions about Silver's Price Drivers - Silver's long-term price trends are more aligned with gold than industrial demand, which primarily affects short-term fluctuations [1][14]. - Investment demand is the dominant factor influencing silver's price, with a strong positive correlation observed [1][18]. Section 2: Photovoltaic Demand and Silver - The photovoltaic sector has been a major growth driver for silver demand, with expectations of continued demand despite potential slowdowns [2][24]. - Historical data indicates that declines in specific industrial demands, such as photography, did not hinder silver's performance in past bull markets [2][25]. Section 3: Silver-Gold Ratio and Economic Conditions - The report highlights that silver has historically outperformed gold during economic recoveries, even in stagflation scenarios [3][37]. - The potential for silver price increases remains strong, supported by historical performance during similar economic conditions [3][38].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2] Core Views - Precious metals are expected to continue their upward trend, with gold prices rising by 0.53% and silver prices by 4.07% in the week of July 7-11, 2025. The gold-silver ratio has reached a maximum of over 100 this year, indicating potential for further increases in silver prices as gold prices stabilize [4] - Industrial metal prices are on the rise, with fluctuations in copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, and nickel prices noted. The report highlights a significant discrepancy between Indonesia's nickel production quotas and actual output due to seasonal weather impacts [4] - Rare earth prices, particularly praseodymium-neodymium oxides, have increased, driven by a recovery in manufacturing demand. Tungsten prices are also rising, indicating a steady growth in demand for tungsten in production tools [4] - Energy metals show mixed trends, with lithium prices increasing while cobalt and nickel prices are declining. The report emphasizes the need to monitor future demand growth for energy metals [4] - The report recommends investing in the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly in precious metals, as the Federal Reserve enters a rate-cutting cycle, and domestic monetary policies are expected to support growth [4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Review 1.1 Precious Metals - Gold prices have shown a consistent upward trend, with the gold-silver ratio indicating potential for silver price increases [4][5] 1.2 Industrial Metals - The report provides a detailed overview of price changes for various industrial metals, noting specific percentage changes for copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, and nickel [27] 1.3 Minor Metals - Prices for rare earth metals and tungsten have increased, reflecting a recovery in manufacturing and steady demand growth [28][31] 1.4 Energy Metals - Lithium prices are rising, while cobalt and nickel prices are declining, highlighting the need for ongoing monitoring of energy metal demand [34] 2. Market Data - The report notes that the non-ferrous metals sector has seen a 1.02% increase, with specific sectors like metal new materials and precious metals showing significant gains [35] 3. Important Events Review - The report highlights significant developments in the industry, including the successful launch of a new aluminum electrolysis production line and the planned expansion of an electrolytic aluminum project [41][42]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis, the report predicts the trends of various futures contracts on July 14, 2025, including股指期货,国债 futures, precious metal futures, base metal futures, energy futures, and agricultural product futures. It also analyzes the market conditions on July 11, 2025, and provides some macro - economic information and trading tips [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, IM2509 are expected to be strongly volatile. Resistance and support levels are provided for each contract [2][31]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year T2509 and thirty - year TL2509 are likely to have wide - range fluctuations, with corresponding support and resistance levels [2]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold (AU2510) will be strongly volatile, and silver (AG2510) will be strongly volatile and may hit a new high. Resistance and support levels are given [2][3]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Copper (CU2508) will be range - bound, aluminum (AL2508) will be weakly volatile, zinc (ZN2508) and nickel (NI2508) will be weakly volatile, while tin (SN2508), alumina (AO2509) will be strongly volatile, with support and resistance levels for each [3][4]. - **Energy Futures**: Crude oil (SC2508) and fuel oil (FU2509) will be strongly volatile, and PTA (TA509) will be strongly volatile, with corresponding support and resistance levels [7]. - **Agricultural Product Futures**: Soybean oil (Y2509) and palm oil (P2509) will be strongly volatile, while corn (C2509) and natural rubber (RU2509) will be weakly volatile, with support and resistance levels [7][8]. 3.2 Macro - economic Information - The 2025 SCO Digital Economy Forum was held, and 12 digital economy cooperation projects were signed. The Ministry of Finance promotes long - term and stable investment of insurance funds. Diplomatic activities between China and the US, Russia, etc. were carried out [9][10]. - The second - quarter high - frequency data in China showed improvement in consumption, investment, etc. The US imposed tariffs on multiple countries, which affected the global trade and financial markets [12]. 3.3 Commodity Futures - related Information - The IEA adjusted the growth expectations of global oil supply and demand. International oil prices rose on July 11, 2025, and international precious metal futures generally closed higher. London base metals mostly closed lower [17][18][19]. 3.4 Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: On July 11, 2025, IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, IM2509 showed different trends, with some hitting new highs. The market is expected to be strongly volatile in July 2025 [21][22][23]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On July 11, 2025, the ten - year T2509 had a slight decline, and the thirty - year TL2509 had a slight increase. They are expected to have wide - range fluctuations on July 14 [50][52]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold (AU2510) had a slight increase on July 11, 2025, and is expected to be strongly volatile in July and on July 14. Silver (AG2510) hit a new high on July 12, 2025, and is expected to continue to rise [55][61]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Different base metal futures showed various trends on July 11, 2025, and their trends on July 14 and in July 2025 are predicted [74][78][83]. - **Energy Futures**: Crude oil (SC2508) and fuel oil (FU2509) had different trends on July 11, 2025, and their future trends are forecasted [128][132]. - **Other Futures**: Industrial silicon, polycrystalline silicon, lithium carbonate, rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal, glass, soda ash, caustic soda futures all have their own trends on July 11, 2025, and future trends are predicted [100][102][105].

2025.07. 14 本文字数：634，阅读时长大约2分钟 7月14日，三大股指收盘涨跌不一，沪指报收3519.65点，涨0.27%；深成指报收10684.52点，跌 0.11%；创业板指报收2197.07点，跌0.45%。 沪深两市全天成交额1.46万亿，较上个交易日缩量2534亿。全市场超3100只个股上涨，超2000只 个股下跌。 造纸板块午后走高，森林包装、宜宾纸业涨停，松炀资源、恒达新材、景兴纸业等跟涨。 资金流向 | No. of Cattle | Page | 2. 11 | | Status of 12.00 | T | 1 | No. of Children | Dr | 1 | 1 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 1 | 100 | | | | | | | | | | | A Q 1 = 15 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 最新 | | 张唱 | | 上证指数 | 3519.65 | +9.47 | +0.27% | | ...

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations with mixed performance across the three major indices, highlighting a divergence in sector performance [1] - The robotics sector saw significant gains, while financial technology and gaming sectors faced declines [1] Sector Performance Robotics Sector - The robotics concept stocks collectively surged, with the human-shaped robot industry rapidly developing and outperforming the CSI 300 index since October 2024 [3] - The demand for human-shaped robots in consumer applications is expected to grow significantly, transitioning from laboratory settings to complex real-world applications [3] Financial Technology and Gaming Sectors - Financial technology and gaming-related ETFs dropped over 2%, indicating a downturn in these sectors [3] - Despite the recent decline, the financial IT sector is anticipated to benefit from improving macroeconomic conditions and ongoing capital market reforms [5] - The gaming market is projected to remain in an upward cycle globally, with increasing revenue and player numbers expected in the long term [5] ETF Performance - The Guozheng 2000 ETF fund rose over 6%, while various robotics and Hong Kong innovative drug-related ETFs increased by more than 2% [2] - The financial technology and gaming ETFs showed declines, with specific ETFs like the Huaxia Financial Technology ETF and the Gaming ETF experiencing drops of 2.81% and 2.76% respectively [4][5]

美联储公布的6月会议纪要显示，19位政策制定者中仅有少数支持本月降息，多数官员对特朗普贸易关 税可能带来的通胀压力表示担忧。尽管特朗普多次要求立即降息并呼吁美联储主席鲍威尔辞职，但会议 纪要表明决策者在降息问题上分歧明显。目前市场有关于鲍威尔可能被迫辞职的传言愈演愈烈。 【技术分析】 现货黄金(伦敦金)：从形态结构看,黄金近期低点不断抬高，沿着上涨趋势线不断震荡向上，走出标准上 涨趋势浪节奏。周五晚间多头再次强势发力突破关键压力位3345.0，进一步打开多头上涨空间，后市继 续看多头延续行情。综合MACD指标看，快慢线0轴上方运行，表明多头力量主导行情走势。 摘要7月14日亚市尾盘，贵金属市场呈现显著分化格局。现货黄金小幅攀升至3373.69美元/盎司上方维 持震荡，而现货白银则强势突破39美元/盎司关键位，刷新2011年9月以来逾12年高位，年内累计涨幅已 扩大至35%。市场聚焦即将公布的对俄政策声明，据白宫日程安排，特朗普将于今日就俄罗斯问题发 布"重要声明"，预计涉及新制裁措施。值得注意的是，尽管避险需求持续支撑贵金属估值，但技术面出 现微妙变化——黄金在3370美元附近承压明显，显示短期追高风险偏好下 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish. Driven by recent events, the short - term price of precious metals is expected to remain strong. However, close attention should be paid to the US precious metal import tariff policy, as the failure of the tariff policy may lead to a correction in precious metal prices and cross - market spreads. For short - term trading, the support levels for gold are 3300 - 3320 and then 3200, with resistance at 3365 and then 3400. London silver has broken through the resistance in the 37 - 37.3 area, and the upside may extend to the 40 area. The strategy of buying on dips is still recommended [5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, precious metal prices generally showed a strong performance, with significant increases in silver and palladium. The premium of precious metal prices in the US market over London spot prices widened significantly, possibly due to concerns about additional tariffs on other key imported minerals after Trump unexpectedly imposed a 50% tariff on copper imports. The prices of palladium, platinum, and silver in the US market have reached new highs. Attention should be paid to the future direction of Trump's import tariff policy on precious metals [1]. - Regarding trade tariffs, the implementation of reciprocal tariffs was postponed from July 9 to August 1. Starting from August 1, the US will impose different tariff rates on various countries, such as 25% on Japan, South Korea, etc., 30% on South Africa, Bosnia and Herzegovina, etc., and 50% on Brazil [1]. - In terms of the Fed's monetary policy, Fed Governor Waller said that a rate cut in July could be considered, and he supported continuing the balance - sheet reduction and increasing the proportion of short - term assets [1]. 3.2 Fund and Inventory - Long - term fund holdings: Last week, the SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 0.02 tons to 947.64 tons, and the iShares Silver ETF holdings decreased by 110.22 tons to 14758.5 tons [2]. - Short - term fund holdings: According to the CFTC持仓 report as of July 8, the non - commercial net long positions in gold increased by 988 contracts to 202968 contracts, with long positions increasing by 3054 contracts and short positions increasing by 2066 contracts. The non - commercial net long positions in silver decreased by 4879 contracts to 58521 contracts, with long positions decreasing by 1968 contracts and short positions increasing by 2911 contracts [2]. - Inventory: COMEX gold inventory decreased by 1.2 tons to 1143 tons, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 135.7 tons to 15393.7 tons. SHFE gold inventory increased by 3.13 tons to 24.59 tons, and SHFE silver inventory decreased by 36.15 tons to 1303.6 tons. The Shanghai Gold Exchange silver inventory (as of the week of July 4) decreased by 3.33 tons to 1319.9 tons [2]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - Data: Focus on the US CPI data on Tuesday evening [3]. - Events: - Domestic: On Monday at 10:00, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference to introduce the import and export situation in the first half of 2025; at 15:00, it will hold a press conference on the financial statistics in the first half of 2025. On Tuesday at 10:00, it will hold a press conference on the national economic operation in the first half of 2025 [3]. - Overseas: There are multiple speeches by Fed officials and the Bank of England governor throughout the week, and the Fed will release the Beige Book of Economic Conditions on Thursday. In addition, US President Trump plans to make a "major statement" on the Russian issue this week [3][4]. 3.4 Price and Related Ratios - The table shows the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various precious metal futures and spot contracts, as well as the gold - silver ratio [6]. - The table also presents the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of stock, bond, and commodity market indicators, including the US dollar index, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil, etc. [18].