Group 1 - Silver prices have surpassed $40 per ounce for the first time since 2011, with a year-to-date increase of approximately 40% [1] - Gold prices are approaching historical highs, trading near $3,500 per ounce, following a 1.1% increase [1] - The rise in precious metal prices is attributed to market expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in their upcoming meeting [1] Group 2 - The upcoming U.S. employment report is anticipated to confirm a weakening labor market, which may support the case for interest rate cuts [1][2] - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve have increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver [1] - Silver has outperformed gold this year, driven by increased investment in silver ETFs and a reduction in available silver inventory in the London market [3] Group 3 - The silver borrowing rate remains high at around 2%, indicating a tight market [3] - Silver has been included in the U.S. critical minerals list, raising concerns about potential impacts from U.S. tariffs [3] - As of the latest report, spot gold is up 1.15% to $3,487.76 per ounce, while silver, palladium, and platinum have also seen price increases [3]

投资逻辑 25Q2 有色金属板块涨幅 5.50%，涨幅超过沪深 300 指数;工业金属贵金属价格上涨，带动板块内企业业绩增长及板块 表现领先。 铜：铜供应紧缺叠加新一轮电气需求驱动，Q2 铜价触底反弹。铜矿及冶炼企业 25Q2 营收 4275.20 亿元，环比+20.41%； 归母净利润 229.71 亿元，环比+18.19%；铜加工板块 25Q2 营收 831.26 亿元，环比+6.29%；归母净利润 11.86 亿元， 环比+7.05%。中国新能源领域的强劲需求及多家矿企下调产量指引，推动商品价格反弹。 铝：基本面支撑铝价韧性较强，叠加成本端煤炭跌价，吨铝利润环比有所增加。25Q2 电解铝板块营收 1137.10 亿元， 环比+6.29%；归母净利润 96.01 亿元，环比+11.40%；25Q2 铝加工板块营收 543.78 亿元，环比+7.84%；归母净利润 19.24 亿元，环比+8.92%。中美关税博弈致铝价短暂下跌，基本面强支撑彰显铝价韧性，吨铝利润较 Q1 高位继续上 行，标的中国宏桥，云铝股份等。 贵金属：金银价格全面上涨。25Q2 贵金属板块营收 1265.78 亿元，环比+25.15%； ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guojin Securities highlights a comprehensive increase in precious metal prices, driven by rising risk aversion and ongoing global central bank gold purchases, with expectations for sustained gold price growth due to anticipated interest rate cuts [1][3]. Group 1: Precious Metals - The precious metals sector reported revenues of 126.58 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 25.15%, and a net profit of 6.86 billion yuan, up 41.93% [1][3]. - The downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating has heightened risk aversion, contributing to a continuous upward trend in gold prices [1][3]. - The expectation of ongoing global central bank gold purchases is anticipated to support gold prices, with a focus on gold ETF allocations and key stocks such as Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Gold [1][3]. Group 2: Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a price increase of 5.50% in Q2 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index, driven by rising industrial and precious metal prices [2]. - Copper prices rebounded due to supply shortages and increased electrical demand, with copper mining and smelting companies reporting revenues of 427.52 billion yuan, up 20.41%, and a net profit of 22.97 billion yuan, up 18.19% [2]. - The aluminum sector showed resilience with revenues of 113.71 billion yuan, a 6.29% increase, and net profits of 9.60 billion yuan, up 11.40%, supported by strong fundamentals and declining coal prices [2]. Group 3: Rare Earths and Specialty Metals - The rare earth sector experienced a revenue increase of 3.94% in Q2 2025, with net profits rising by 14.57%, driven by price increases and supply chain reforms [3]. - The average price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide was 432,000 yuan per ton, reflecting a 0.56% increase [3]. - The small metals sector reported a revenue increase of 20.46% and a net profit increase of 13.99%, with significant price increases in molybdenum, tungsten, antimony, and tin [4]. Group 4: Lithium and Nickel-Cobalt - The lithium sector faced pressure with revenues of 25 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 6.2%, while net profits increased by 21% [4]. - The nickel-cobalt sector saw revenue growth of 28% year-on-year, with net profits of 2.65 billion yuan, indicating an improvement in profitability [4]. Group 5: New Materials - The new materials sector reported a revenue increase of 12.53% and a net profit increase of 25.86% in Q2 2025, driven by technological innovation and domestic substitution [5].

9月1日周一，贵金属市场表现亮眼，白银触及2011年以来最高水平，金价连续第五日上涨至每盎司3478美元附近。投资者预期美联储即将降息， 推动资金流向避险资产。 MSCI亚太指数下滑0.1%，日经225指数受芯片股拖累下跌2%，三星电子和SK海力士等芯片制造商大幅下跌。美国股指期货小幅走低，欧洲股指 期货则微涨。因劳工节假期，美国市场周一休市。上周五，一家美国联邦上诉法院裁定，总统特朗普征收的大范围贸易关税为非法，为市场增添 了新的变数。 贵金属价格创多年新高 白银价格周一升破每盎司40美元，创2011年以来最高水平，年内涨幅超过40%。白银受益于其工业属性，根据白银协会（Silver Institute）的判 断，在太阳能电池板等清洁能源技术的推动下，白银市场正迈向连续第五年的供应短缺。 日经225指数跌幅扩大至2%。 欧洲斯托克50指数期货涨0.1% 美元现货指数变化不大，欧元上涨 0.2% 至 1.1709 美元。 台湾证交所加权股价指数收跌0.7%，报24,071.73点。 日本10年期国债收益率上涨两个基点至1.620%。 印度10年期国债收益率上升5个基点至6.62%。 西德克萨斯中质原油下跌 0 ...

周一，金价徘徊在3480美元附近，逼近历史高点，白银价格自2011年以来首次突破每盎司40美元。 在地缘政治紧张和金融状况不确定的背景下，贵金属受益于投资者对避险资产的强烈兴趣，其中包括特朗普对美联储的频频攻击，这引发了人们对美联储独 立性的担忧。 关于特朗普解雇美联储理事库克一事的紧急听证会已于上周五结束，但未做出裁决，预计至少在周二之前不会有关于她能否继续履职的裁定。 该案法官并未透露她倾向于哪一方，这一决定很可能决定美联储的未来，对一个独立性减弱的货币当局的担忧将侵蚀投资者对美国的信心，这种情况可能会 提振对黄金等避险资产的需求。 另外，一家联邦上诉法院裁定，特朗普的全球关税是根据一项紧急状态法被非法征收的，维持了国际贸易法院5月份的一项裁决。但法官们允许在案件审理 期间保留这些征税，这表明任何禁令的范围都可能被缩小。 金银铜齐飞 今年4月，在特朗普公布其初步的关税计划后，金价曾飙升至每盎司3500美元左右的历史高点。自那以后，随着特朗普收回一些他最激进的贸易提议，避险 需求降温，金价基本保持区间震荡。尽管如此，流入交易所交易基金（ETF）的资金帮助支撑了对这种贵金属的长期支持。 对于白银，其还因在太阳 ...

上周（8月25日至29日当周）国际现货黄金大幅走强，周涨超2%，周K线连续第二周收阳并重新回到 3400美元/盎司关口之上。在美联储降息预期升温的提振下，8月份现货黄金累计上涨157.77美元涨幅达 4.8%，创下4月份以来的最佳月度表现。 展望新的一周，即将公布的美国8月非农就业数据无疑是周内焦点中的焦点。在7月非农就业报告意外疲 软之后，8月报告或仍有可能为金价的强势表现再添动力。 美联储"鸽声"再起 9月降息预期增强 尽管上周公布的部分美国经济数据好于预期，但在通胀温和，且美联储主席鲍威尔此前一周在杰克逊霍 尔央行会议上暗示降息之后，美联储内部鸽派声音明显增加，这使得市场对9月降息的预期得到强化。 具体来看，上周公布的美国二季度GDP修正值和前一周初请失业金人数等指标，均表现好于预期。 美国商务部28日公布的第二次修正数据显示，2025年第二季度美国实际国内生产总值（GDP）年增长率 为3.3%，较初估数据上调0.3个百分点。同时，前一周初请失业金人数也减少至22.9万，显示劳动力市 场的表现仍显韧性。 进一步，上周五公布的美国7月核心PCE物价指数年率录得2.9%，虽然为今年2月以来最高，但基本符合 ...

2025年09月01日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：突破新高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：冲顶前高 | 2 | | 铜：美元承压，价格上涨 | 4 | | 锌：震荡运行 | 6 | | 铅：库存减少，支撑价格 | 8 | | 锡：区间震荡 | 9 | | 铝：重心上移 | 11 | | 氧化铝：下方空间恐仍在 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：强于电解铝 | 11 | | 镍：基本面逻辑窄幅震荡，警惕消息面潜在风险 | 13 | | 不锈钢：钢价窄幅震荡运行 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 1、美商务部国际贸易谈判代表兼副部长李成钢访美，与美国政府部门相关官员以及工商界代表举行 2025 年 9 月 1 日 黄金：突破新高 白银：冲顶前高 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxu ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a volatile upward movement in the morning session, with total market turnover reaching 1.85 trillion yuan [1] - The leading sectors included precious metals, innovative pharmaceuticals, film and theater, tourism and hotels, and storage chips, while insurance, military equipment, securities, and airport shipping sectors saw declines [1] Index Performance - As of the midday close, the CSI A500 index rose by 0.1%, the CSI 300 index fell by 0.1%, the ChiNext index increased by 0.6%, and the STAR Market 50 index rose by 0.7% [1] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index saw a significant increase of 1.5% [1] Index Details - The CSI 300 index consists of 300 stocks with good liquidity, covering 11 primary industries, with a rolling P/E ratio of 14.2 times [3] - The CSI A500 index includes 500 securities from various industries, covering 91 out of 93 tertiary industries, with a rolling P/E ratio of 16.6 times [3] - The ChiNext index is composed of 100 stocks with high liquidity from the ChiNext board, with a rolling P/E ratio of 41.0 times [4] - The STAR Market 50 index includes 50 stocks with significant market capitalization and liquidity, focusing on "hard technology" leaders [6] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index tracks 50 large-cap, actively traded stocks listed in Hong Kong, with a rolling P/E ratio of 10.2 times [8]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a collective rise in the three major indices during the morning session, indicating a positive market sentiment [1] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3862.65 points, with an increase of 0.12% - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12710.25 points, with an increase of 0.11% - The ChiNext Index closed at 2906.03 points, with an increase of 0.55% [1] Sector Performance Top Gaining Sectors - Precious Metals: Increased by 7.12%, with a total trading volume of 845.52 million hands and a net inflow of 20.88 billion - Biopharmaceuticals: Increased by 2.67%, with a total trading volume of 542.53 million hands and a net inflow of 8.02 billion - Film and Television: Increased by 2.29%, with a total trading volume of 843.68 million hands and a net inflow of 4.11 billion [2] Top Declining Sectors - Insurance: Decreased by 2.30%, with a total trading volume of 181.90 million hands and a net outflow of 17.61 billion - Military Equipment: Decreased by 1.83%, with a total trading volume of 1445.87 million hands and a net outflow of 48.57 billion - Securities: Decreased by 1.04%, with a total trading volume of 3305.29 million hands and a net outflow of 67.34 billion [2]

今日（9月1日）揽尽有色金属行业龙头的有色龙头ETF（159876）早盘活跃，场内价格现涨2.11%，值 得关注的是，有色龙头ETF（159876）获资金实时净申购3060万份！深交所数据显示，该ETF近5日累 计获资金净流入2840万元，近10日吸金4096万元，反映资金看好板块后市，逐步进场布局！ 成份股方面，金钼股份、西部黄金、白银有色涨停！华钰矿业涨超8%，湖南黄金涨近8%，兴业银锡、 中金黄金等个股大幅跟涨！ 消息面上，COMEX黄金价格继续上探历史新高（3542.8美元/盎司）。黄金为何大涨？重点关注三方面 因素： ①美联储独立性存疑引发避险买盘，美国总统特朗普免职美联储理事丽莎·库克引发市场担忧； ②美联储降息预期升温，交易员预计9月降息概率超过80%，利率下降削弱美元支撑； ③机构大幅上调金价预期，摩根大通预测央行黄金购买量将达850吨，金价可能触及4000美元/盎司。 分析人士表示，以上消息显著增强了黄金作为避险资产的吸引力，美联储降息预期和机构看涨报告可能 驱动资金持续流入黄金概念股，支撑板块表现。 展望有色金属板块后市，中信建投表示，除却美联储处于降息通道带来的货币宽松外，国内正在推行 ...