Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The real estate market is still at the bottom, but the decline trend is slowing; the steel consumption in the automotive manufacturing sector has declined for two consecutive months; infrastructure investment is providing support [4][6][8][10] - The iron ore price shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern. In the medium to long term, new capacity will make the fundamentals looser, and macro - demand is under pressure both at home and abroad [25] - The short - term surplus contradiction of coking coal has intensified, and the supply - demand contradiction of coke may deteriorate. Overseas energy price increases provide bottom support, but the surplus problem restricts price elasticity [42] - The support for ferroalloys has strengthened, but the demand from steel mills is weak, and the silicon - manganese inventory is at a historical high with great de - stocking pressure [57] - The supply pressure of soda ash persists, and the price trend may be affected by other sectors and macro - factors, with limited upward and downward space [69] - The price of float glass fluctuates due to the combined effects of supply, demand, and cost factors [91] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Macro Data**: In January - February, the new construction area of real estate was 5.084 million square meters, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 23.1%, and the single - month steel consumption was 330,460 tons, at the lowest level in the same period over the years. The decline trend has begun to stabilize. The automobile production in January - February was 4.024 million vehicles, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 9.9%. The steel consumption in the automotive industry decreased for two consecutive months. The infrastructure investment completion in February increased by 9.76% year - on - year [4][6][8] - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures contracts on March 23, 2026, showed certain changes compared with March 20. The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions also had corresponding changes [10][15] - **Price Ratios**: The 01, 05, and 10 rebar/iron ore ratios were all 4, and the 01, 05, and 10 rebar/coke ratios were all 2 on March 23, 2026 [22] Iron Ore - **Price Situation**: The price shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern. The cost - end support comes from high - level crude oil and fuel shortage. The global shipping volume has marginally recovered, and the molten iron output has increased with the resumption of production by steel mills. The inventory at ports is being depleted slowly, and the structural shortage of spot goods supports the price. In the medium to long term, new capacity will make the fundamentals looser, and macro - demand is under pressure both at home and abroad [25] - **Price Data**: On March 23, 2026, the 01, 05, and 09 contract closing prices of iron ore were 762.5, 819, and 786.5 respectively, with corresponding daily and weekly changes [26][30] - **Fundamental Data**: On March 20, 2026, the daily average molten iron output was 228,150 tons, the 45 - port desilting volume was 3.2097 million tons, and other data such as global shipping volume, port inventory, and steel mill inventory also showed certain changes [37] Coal and Coke - **Market Situation**: Domestic coal mines have resumed production, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal is relatively high, and the price decline of Australian coal has narrowed the domestic - foreign price difference, intensifying the short - term surplus contradiction of coking coal. The price increase of coke chemical products has improved profits, and the operating rate is expected to increase. However, the profit pressure of downstream steel products has dragged down the resumption of molten iron production, and the supply - demand contradiction may deteriorate. Overseas energy price increases provide bottom support, but the surplus problem restricts price elasticity [42] - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The futures price differences and spot prices of coking coal and coke on March 23, 2026, showed certain changes compared with previous days, and the corresponding profit data also changed [43][44][45] Ferroalloys - **Market Situation**: The Australian hurricane has disturbed the shipping of manganese ore, and miners' price - holding has pushed up the manganese ore price. The strong coking coal provides cost support, enhancing the downward support for ferroalloys. The output of ferrosilicon has increased, while the output of silicomanganese remains low. The profitability of steel mills is limited, providing weak support for the demand for ferroalloys. The silicomanganese inventory is at a historical high, with great de - stocking pressure, and the manganese ore disturbance amplifies the price fluctuations [57] - **Data**: The daily data of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese on March 23, 2026, showed changes in basis, price differences, and spot prices compared with previous days [58][60][61] Soda Ash - **Market Situation**: The daily production remains at a high level, the supply pressure persists, the rigid demand is stable but weak, the inventory performance is better than expected, and there is room for replenishment in the middle - stream, but the limited demand elasticity restricts the upward amplitude. The downward space needs to be opened up by inventory accumulation. In the medium to long term, the high - level supply expectation remains unchanged, and the industrial contradiction needs further accumulation. The price trend may be affected by other sectors and macro - factors, and the upward and downward space is difficult to open up for the time being [69] - **Price Data**: On March 23, 2026, the closing prices of the 05, 09, and 01 contracts of soda ash increased compared with March 20, and the price differences and basis also changed [70][71] Float Glass - **Market Situation**: The cold - repair expectation of float glass continues, the daily melting volume has declined, the middle - stream inventory is relatively high, and there is a risk of negative feedback. The supply return expectation and high inventory limit the price increase. The demand needs to be verified. The increase in the price of petroleum coke at the cost end provides support, and the macro - sentiment and fluctuations in related sectors have a driving effect. The price fluctuates under the combined action of supply, demand, and cost [91] - **Price and Sales Data**: On March 23, 2026, the closing prices of the 05, 09, and 01 contracts of glass increased compared with March 20, and the price differences, basis, and daily sales data also showed certain changes [92][94]

免责声明 热轧卷板产业链日报 2026/3/23 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：HC：热轧卷板 研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,330 | +33↑ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1055371 | -42832↓ | | | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -55,633 | -30074↓ HC5-10合约价差(元/吨) | -6 | 0.00 | | | HC 上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 525806 | -589↓ HC2605-RB2605合约价差(元/吨) | 176 | +2↑ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,330.00 | +30.00↑ 广州 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,300.00 | +20.00↑ | | | 武汉 4.75热轧板卷(元 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [5] Core Insights - The London gold spot price has dropped significantly by 10.49% week-on-week, marking the largest weekly decline in six years, with the current price at $4,492 per ounce [10] - The financing environment index for small and medium enterprises (SMEs) is at 48.66 for February 2026, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 3.20% [15] - The cumulative year-on-year sales area of commercial housing in China for January-February 2026 is down by 13.50% [18] Liquidity - The total liabilities of the Federal Reserve are reported at $6.61 trillion, with a week-on-week increase of 0.15% [10] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference in February 2026 is -3.1 percentage points, showing a month-on-month increase of 1.0 percentage points [15] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The cumulative year-on-year new construction area of commercial housing for January-February 2026 is down by 23.10% [18] - The national average price index for cement has increased by 1.58% week-on-week, with a current operating rate of 46.95% [59] Industrial Chain - The operating rate for semi-steel tires is at a five-year high of 78.25%, with a week-on-week increase of 0.54 percentage points [2] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is reported at 24,030 yuan per ton, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 4.26% [9] Price Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore is currently at 3.94, indicating a significant price relationship [3] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel is 90 yuan per ton, with a week-on-week increase of 40 yuan [3] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in February 2026 is at 45.00%, down by 2.8 percentage points month-on-month [3] - The CCFI composite index for container shipping rates is at 1,120.61 points, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 4.52% [3] Valuation Levels - The CSI 300 index has decreased by 2.19%, with the steel and industrial metals sectors showing a PB ratio of 30.19% and 63.67% relative to the CSI 300 [4] - The current PB ratio for the steel sector is 0.49, which is near its historical high of 0.82 [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a long-term positive outlook for the non-ferrous metals and steel sectors, while short-term observations should focus on oil price performance and steel production policies [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - The steel industry is in a state of basic balance between supply and demand, with both supply and demand increasing. This week, the increase in apparent demand is greater than the increase in production, maintaining seasonal destocking. The steel price has risen to the upper limit of the range, and there is a probability of price increase in the short - term due to the influence of raw materials. The shock center of rebar will rise [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Short - term iron ore prices are supported by factors such as accelerated steel mill复产 and restricted liquidity of some spot varieties. The supply of iron ore has increased, and the demand for molten iron has rebounded significantly. The inventory of steel mills has increased, and the port inventory has decreased slightly. In the future, the main iron ore contract is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Coke has an expectation of bottoming out and rebounding. The supply of coke and coking coal has increased, and the demand has also risen after the end of the two sessions. The inventory of coking plants has decreased, while the inventory of steel mills and ports has increased. It is recommended to go long on coke 2605 contract and long coking coal and short coke for arbitrage [6]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon Industry - Silicon iron has a situation of both supply and demand increasing, and the cost is also supported. It is expected that the supply will continue to grow. The price is expected to fluctuate widely and run strongly. Manganese silicon has cost support, and the supply growth rate is lower than expected. The price has bottom - line support, and it is recommended to pay attention to the supply changes and cost changes [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts have different degrees of changes. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract price decreased by 12 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The prices of steel billets and slab decreased and remained unchanged respectively. The costs of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar and converter rebar decreased by 4 yuan/ton. The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions also changed to varying degrees [1]. Production - The daily average molten iron output increased by 7.0 to 228.2, with a growth rate of 3.1%. The output of five major steel products increased by 18.9 to 839.8, with a growth rate of 2.3% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 28.7 to 1946.2, with a decrease rate of 1.5%. The inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil also decreased [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 0.9 to 9.9, with a growth rate of 10.2%. The apparent demand of five major steel products increased by 70.4 to 868.5, with a growth rate of 8.8% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore varieties increased, and the basis of 05 contracts of some varieties decreased. The 5 - 9 and 9 - 1 spreads increased [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of various iron ore varieties in Rizhao Port increased slightly, and the price of the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap also increased slightly [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 394.9 to 2215.0, with a decrease rate of 15.1%. The global shipping volume increased by 151.0 to 3048.8, with a growth rate of 5.2% [4]. Demand - The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 7.0 to 228.2, with a growth rate of 3.1%. The 45 - port daily average desilting volume increased by 3.1 to 321.0, with a growth rate of 1.0% [4]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 89.1 to 17098.4, with a decrease rate of 0.5%. The inventory of imported iron ore in 247 steel mills increased by 105.0 to 9034.1, with a growth rate of 1.2% [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - The prices of coke and coking coal contracts increased to varying degrees. The basis of coke and coking coal contracts also changed [6]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.3 to 64.2, with a growth rate of 0.5%. The daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.3 to 47.3, with a growth rate of 0.7% [6]. Demand - The molten iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 7.0 to 228.2, with a growth rate of 3.1% [6]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory decreased by 2.8 to 981.5, with a decrease rate of 0.3%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 35.6 to 1005.0, with a growth rate of 3.7% [6]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon Industry Futures and Spot - The closing prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon main contracts increased. The spot prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon in different regions also changed to varying degrees [7]. Cost and Profit - The production costs of silicon iron and manganese silicon in different regions changed slightly. The production profits of silicon iron and manganese silicon also changed [7]. Supply - The silicon iron output increased by 0.7 to 10.4, with a growth rate of 7.2%. The manganese silicon supply decreased slightly, and the operating rate has declined for several consecutive weeks [7]. Demand - The demand for silicon iron and manganese silicon increased. The molten iron output increased by 7.0 to 228.2, with a growth rate of 3.1% [7]. Inventory Changes - The silicon iron inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 0.2 to 5.9, with a decrease rate of 2.9%. The inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased by 0.9 to 38.5, with a growth rate of 2.4% [7].

Oil Market - The core variable for oil price trends remains the ability to maintain the smooth operation of the Strait of Hormuz, with geopolitical conflicts showing no signs of easing, leading to potential price volatility [2][22] - The International Energy Agency's member countries are releasing strategic oil reserves as an emergency buffer, but this is not a sustainable supply source, and there is still a need for replenishment after the release [2] Precious Metals - Precious metals continue to show weakness, influenced by hawkish signals from central banks like the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, with expectations that the Fed may not lower interest rates this year [3] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are likely to keep precious metals under pressure [3] Base Metals - Copper prices have declined due to negative risks from the Middle East situation and increasing inflationary pressures, with domestic demand providing some support [4] - Aluminum prices have retreated as domestic inventories reach record highs, while overseas low inventories create a shortage expectation [5] - Zinc prices are under pressure with a rebound in domestic zinc concentrate stocks, while the market remains cautious about the seasonal destocking pace [8] Industrial Metals - The market for aluminum alloys is following aluminum price fluctuations, with a narrowing price gap due to overall declines in the sector [7] - The iron ore market is experiencing fluctuations, with domestic port inventories declining seasonally and demand from steel mills showing signs of recovery [16] Energy Products - Fuel oil prices are expected to remain strong due to geopolitical tensions affecting supply routes, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz [22] - The asphalt market is tightening as refinery supplies decrease, with expectations of improved demand as temperatures rise [23] Agricultural Products - The soybean and meal markets are under pressure due to rising energy prices and concerns over fertilizer supply disruptions from the Middle East [36] - The corn market is expected to respond to government policies aimed at ensuring food security, with recent price increases observed [40] Livestock - The live pig market is facing downward pressure with high inventory levels, while the egg market shows potential for price increases due to lower supply expectations [41][42] Chemical Products - The methanol market is showing strength due to reduced import volumes and recovering domestic demand, influenced by geopolitical factors [25] - The PVC market is experiencing a strong upward trend, supported by tight supply and rising raw material costs [29] Financial Markets - The stock market is experiencing volatility, with significant movements in indices influenced by geopolitical developments and central bank policies [48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel industry is experiencing strong supply and demand, and there are opportunities to go long on the basis. Attention should be paid to the development of geopolitical conflicts [3][6]. - The coking coal and coke market is showing a trend of catch - up growth. The main logic is still the geopolitical conflict, and the market focus is on the development of geopolitical conflicts and the formation of positive feedback from long - position funds [61]. - The iron ore market is mainly in a high - level shock. It is not recommended to chase high or short, and it can be operated according to the range shock [122]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Steel - **Supply**: The output of the long - process steel has increased significantly, and the molten iron output has increased by 7 to 228.2wt this week. The daily consumption of scrap steel is slowly recovering, slightly weaker than the seasonality. After the impact of environmental protection restrictions fades, the steel output is on the rise [6]. - **Demand**: The seasonal demand for building materials is rising, and both supply and demand are increasing. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils has reached the performance of the seasonal peak season, and whether it can exceed expectations needs 1 - 2 weeks of verification. The demand for medium plates and cold - rolled products is also good [6]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products has started to decline. The overall inventory level is neutral, and the greatest pressure is on hot - rolled coils, while the inventory - to - sales ratios of other products are acceptable [6]. - **Basis/Spread**: The basis of hot - rolled coils and rebar fluctuates within a narrow range, and the basis of hot - rolled coils has increased slightly. As of Friday, the basis of rb2605 in the East China region (Hangzhou) is 71, a week - on - week decrease of 1; the basis of hc2605 in the East China region (Shanghai) is - 17, a week - on - week increase of 8 [6]. - **Profit**: Recently, the increase in the price of furnace materials is higher than that of finished products, and the overall profitability of steel mills is weak. The actual production profit is slightly higher than the statistical profit, and the profit of rebar is slightly better than that of plates. The profitability rate of steel mills is 42.42%, with a week - on - week change of 1.29% [6]. - **Valuation**: The basis of hot - rolled coils has returned to a premium, while rebar is mostly in a discount structure. The basis of hot - rolled coils is more suitable for participating in spot - futures positive arbitrage, and the spot liquidity is better. From an industrial perspective, the production profit corresponding to the futures price is meager, and the industrial valuation is relatively low [6]. - **Macro and Risk Preference**: The impact of geopolitical conflicts on the market has not subsided. The black sector is mainly affected by the spill - over of market sentiment. In the short term, coal may be driven upward through energy substitution and increased logistics costs [6]. - **Investment View**: In the short term, it is recommended to go long. During the climbing period of molten iron output and steel apparent demand, there is a natural bullish protection for furnace materials. Coupled with the geopolitical premium, the logic of strong cost support for steel has not been falsified. Unilateral trading can continue to participate in pulse - rebound bands. With the recent decline in the basis, attention can be paid to opportunities for going long on the basis or spot - futures positive arbitrage, with hot - rolled coils being the best choice [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: Participate in pulse rebounds. Arbitrage: Take profit when the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar reaches 175+. Spot - futures: Look for opportunities to go long on the basis of hot - rolled coils or engage in spot - futures positive arbitrage [6]. 3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - **Demand**: The downstream demand is gradually recovering. This week, the output of five major steel products is 839.82 (+18.85), and the demand is 839.82 (+68.84). After the Spring Festival, the supply and demand continue to recover, and the inventory has started to decline. The blast furnaces of steel mills have started to resume production. This week, the daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills is 228.15 (+6.95), and the profitability rate of steel mills is 42.42% (+1.29%). There is still room for further resumption of production [61]. - **Coking Coal Supply**: Domestic coal mines have resumed production quickly. The customs clearance at the Mongolian coal port remains at a high level, and the market transaction situation has improved. The overseas coking coal market is weakly stable, and the purchase intention of market participants has increased, but the price is still inverted [61]. - **Coke Supply**: Coking plants are under normal environmental protection restrictions. This week, the daily average coke output is 111.5 (+0.7), and the coking profit is 38 (+41). Affected by the rising price of chemical by - products, the profitability of coking plants is good [61]. - **Inventory**: The downstream purchasing sentiment is rising. The mines are selling well. The downstream coking and steel enterprises are in the resumption stage. Coupled with the impact of the Middle East conflict, the purchasing enthusiasm is high, and the coking coal and coke inventory is continuously transferred to the downstream [61]. - **Basis/Spread**: After the first round of price cuts by steel mills, the warehouse - receipt cost is around 1680, and after the price increase, it is around 1730. The warehouse - receipt cost of Mongolian coal is around 1200 [61]. - **Profit**: The profitability rate of steel mills is 42.42% (+1.29%), and the coking profit is 38 (+41) [61]. - **Summary**: The main logic is still the geopolitical conflict. The market's trading on the Iranian issue has developed from "inflation shock" to "growth shock". Under this market atmosphere, the market sentiment has weakened, and the prices of some supply - reduced products have reached high levels. The coking coal market has shown a catch - up growth. The key to the market lies in the development of geopolitical conflicts and the formation of positive feedback from long - position funds [61]. - **Trading Strategy**: If the coking coal 09 contract hits the daily limit on Monday, it is recommended to go long with a light position and buy call options. Spot - futures positive arbitrage positions can be entered [61]. 3.3 Iron Ore - **Supply**: The Reuters shipping data this period shows a week - on - week increase of 50.3 tons per day to 469 tons per day. The arrivals in China have also increased. The port inventory has decreased by 133.14 tons to 17814.18 tons, but it is still at a high level [122]. - **Demand**: The molten iron output of steel mills has increased by 6.95 to 228.15 tons this period. The daily average port desilting volume has increased to 335.92 tons. The port inventory has decreased, mainly due to the policy that steel mills can pick up Jinbuba powder at the port last week [122]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory has decreased by 133.14 tons to 17814.18 tons, but it is still at a high level [122]. - **Profit**: The profit of steel mills is at a low level [122]. - **Valuation**: The short - term valuation is neutral [122]. - **Summary**: The price of iron ore is in a high - level range shock. Due to the undetermined negotiation between China's mines and BHP, it is difficult for the price to decline significantly in the short term. Without new restrictive policies, it is also difficult for the price to break through upward. It is not recommended to chase high or short, and it can be operated according to the range shock [122]. - **Investment View**: Neutral [122]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: Wait and see. Arbitrage: Wait and see for the time being [122].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the macro - logic continued to dominate the market. With the war escalating and the Fed remaining hawkish, most commodities except a few energy - chemical products declined. Next week, the war situation will still significantly impact the market. The performance of commodities is expected to be energy and chemicals > agricultural products > ferrous metals > precious metals and non - ferrous metals. Given the high volatility of commodities, it is recommended to wait and see until the situation becomes clear [2][18][19]. Summary According to the Directory 1. One - Week Review and Views 1.1 One - Week Review: Commodity Trends Diverged, Only Some Energy - Chemical Products Performed Strongly - From March 16th to 22nd, commodity trends diverged. Only some energy - chemical products were strong. In terms of sectors: coal chemical industry > energy > oil chemical industry > ferrous metals > agricultural products > non - ferrous metals > precious metals. In the first half of the week, the market fluctuated narrowly. In the second half, the Fed remained unchanged, and Powell's hawkish statement led to a downward revision of interest - rate cut expectations. The attack on Iranian oil and gas facilities by Israel on Thursday caused oil and chemical prices to rise, but they slightly declined on Friday [1][11]. 1.2 Next - Week Outlook: The War Situation is Complex, It is Recommended to Wait and See Cautiously - The war shows an escalating trend, with the Fed remaining hawkish. Most commodities except energy - chemical products declined. Next week, the arrival of the US amphibious landing force in the Middle East may lead to further war escalation, but there are also signs of "peace talks". As long as the strait is not unsealed, there will be a supply - demand gap in the energy market, and energy - chemical products have a basis for price increase. However, due to high volatility, it is recommended to wait and see [2][18][19]. 2. Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Data Tracking - The US dollar index weakened, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose. As of March 20th, the US dollar index fell 0.99% to 99.5100, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 11BP to 4.39%. The attack on Iranian oil and gas facilities and high US PPI have raised inflation concerns. The Fed remained unchanged, with some hawkish statements. The weakening of the US dollar index may be due to concerns about the US getting into a war quagmire and future stagflation [26][27]. 3. Upstream Raw Material Prices - The Iran - US war continues, and with the attack on Iranian energy facilities, the shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has not been substantially restored, causing oil prices to rise. The increase in oil prices and downstream restocking demand are positive for coking coal, but due to loose domestic supply and weak terminal demand, coking coal prices are generally fluctuating [30]. 4. High - Frequency Production - End Data - Most commodity production - end data improved this week, except for the slight decline in PE capacity utilization, and production indicators of glass and soda ash. The year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value from January to February was 6.3%, exceeding market expectations [33]. 5. High - Frequency Inventory - End Data - Gold and silver inventories continued to decline slightly. Most industrial product inventories decreased, but the inventories of copper, aluminum, PTA, etc. continued to accumulate, and the inventory pressure of live pigs was relatively high [53]. 6. High - Frequency Demand - End Data - Most real - estate high - frequency indicators improved this week, such as the increase in the sales area of second - hand houses in 16 cities and the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities. The government bond issuance and net financing scale increased significantly. Terminal demand, including subway passenger volume, flight execution rate, apparent consumption of rebar, and power consumption of 25 provinces' power plants, is improving [75][76]. 7. Key Commodity Basis - The report provides data on the basis of key commodities such as gold, copper, aluminum, rebar, etc., but specific analysis is not detailed in the provided text [90]. 8. Commodity Price Ratios - The report presents various commodity price ratios, including the gold - silver ratio, gold - copper ratio, etc., but no in - depth analysis is provided [101]. 9. Summary and Outlook - The performance of commodities is expected to be energy and chemicals > agricultural products > ferrous metals > non - ferrous metals and precious metals. Due to the unpredictable war situation, it is recommended to wait and see [3][110].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a trading strategy of "oscillating upward" [3] Core Viewpoints - The recent rebound in finished product prices is mainly driven by the increased expectation of rising raw material costs. There may be a short - term rebound, with pressure around the off - peak electricity cost. Attention should be paid to whether it can break through effectively [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Price Changes - **Futures**: On March 20, 2026, for RB2605, the price was 3123, down 12 from March 19; RB2610 was 3151, down 12; RB2701 was 3183, down 7. For HC2605, it was 3297, down 5; HC2610 was 3303, down 4; HC2701 was 3312, down 8. The night - session closing prices were RB2605 at 3148, RB2610 at 3171, HC2605 at 3315, and HC2610 at 3321. The 5 - 10 spread of rebar was - 23 yuan, and that of hot - rolled coil was - 6 yuan. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar for the May contract was 167 yuan, and for the October contract was 150 yuan [1][2] - **Spot**: On March 20, 2026, Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3200 yuan (unchanged), and Shanghai Bengang hot - rolled coil was 3280 yuan (unchanged). The national average price of rebar from March 16 - 20 was 3329 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.3% [1][2] Market Transaction and Production Data - On March 20, the national main port iron ore trading volume was 48.55 tons, a 20.8% decrease from the previous day; 237 mainstream traders' construction steel trading volume was 9.90 tons, a 10.2% increase from the previous day [2] - From March 16 - 20, the national rebar production was 203.33 tons, with an inventory of 889.41 tons. Consumption was 208.09 tons. Rebar production increased week - on - week but was still at a low level in the same lunar period in the past five years, and inventory started to decline [2] - Last week, the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 85.53%, a 2.61 - percentage - point increase from the previous week; the steel mill profitability rate was 42.42%, a 1.29 - percentage - point increase; the daily average pig iron output was 228.15 tons, a 6.95 - ton increase from the previous week [3] - Last week, the average capacity utilization rate of 94 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 56.57%, a 6.13 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 1.67 - percentage - point increase year - on - year; the average operating rate was 66.89%, a 9.55 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 5.04 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year [3] Industry News - On March 20, some coke enterprises in Inner Mongolia initiated the first round of price increase for coke. The price of wet - quenched coke increased by 50 yuan/ton, and that of dry - quenched coke increased by 55 yuan/ton, effective from 0:00 on March 23 [2] - Over the weekend, the ex - factory price of common carbon billets in Tangshan, Hebei, increased by 20 yuan to 2980 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan increase week - on - week. The domestic building materials market prices were strong, and trading was normal [3] Market Structure Analysis - Currently, the production and sales of the five major steel products are both increasing, and the total inventory has reached an inflection point. The overall level is slightly higher than that of last year. After the Two Sessions, the production of hot - rolled coils has increased slightly week - on - week, and the total inventory is being depleted at an accelerated pace. Rebar production continues to rise, mainly from short - process enterprises. With the recovery of demand, the current inventory pressure is relatively limited [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the black sector fluctuated within a narrow range, with small price changes in both raw materials and finished products. The steel demand continued to recover, and the steel inventory reached its peak and started to decline last week. The coking coal production rebounded to a normal to high level since last year, and the market began to trade the substitution effect of coal due to the impact on crude oil and liquefied gas supply. Overall, the black sector is expected to fluctuate with an upward bias [4][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 01 Black Sector Trend Comparison: Narrow - range Fluctuation - The black sector showed a narrow - range fluctuation last week. The price trends of different black commodities such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented in the graph [6][7] 02 Futures Market Rise and Fall Comparison: Non - ferrous Metals Decline, Energy and Chemicals Continue to Strengthen - In the futures market, the non - ferrous metals sector had a significant decline, while the energy and chemicals sector continued to strengthen. The five - day percentage changes of various futures indexes are shown in the graph [9][10] 03 Spot Prices: Slight Decline in Rebar and Iron Ore, Coking Coal Begins to Strengthen - The spot prices of rebar and iron ore slightly declined, while coking coal started to strengthen. The five - day price changes and percentage changes of different commodities are presented in the graph [11][12] 04 Profit and Valuation: Improvement in Steel Mill Profits, Low Valuation of Rebar Futures - The profitability of steel mills has improved. The rebar futures price is below the valley - electricity cost of electric furnaces, indicating a relatively low static valuation. Graphs show the profitability of steel mills, different types of profits (valley - electricity, flat - electricity, peak - electricity, and long - process profits), and the comparison between futures prices and different cost levels [13][14] 05 Steel Supply and Demand: Demand Continues to Rise, Inventory Starts to Decrease - The steel demand continued to recover, and the steel inventory reached its peak and started to decline. Graphs present the total inventory, weekly production, and weekly apparent consumption of five major steel products, as well as the corresponding data for rebar [16][17] 06 Iron Ore Supply and Demand: Steel Mill Restart, Significant Increase in Hot Metal Production - Affected by the restart of steel mills, the hot metal production increased significantly last week. Currently, the hot metal production is still lower than the same period last year, with room for further increase. The steel mills started to replenish inventory, leading to an increase in steel mill iron ore inventory and a decline in port inventory. The graphs show the production of iron concentrate, global iron ore shipments, port and steel mill iron ore inventories, and the daily average hot metal production [25][26] 07 Coking Coal Supply and Demand: Increase in Raw Coal Production, Inventory Transfer to Downstream - The raw coal production of coking coal increased, and the inventory transferred to the downstream. The graphs show the daily average production of raw coal and clean coal of 523 mines, the inventory of clean coal and raw coal of 523 sample mines, the 16 - port coking coal inventory, and the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills and all coking plants [28][29] 08 Coke Supply and Demand: Production Rebounds from a Low Level, Inventory Increases Slightly - The coke production rebounded from a low level, and the inventory increased slightly. The graphs show the daily coke production of 247 steel mills and all coking plants, the inventory of independent coking enterprises, 18 - port coke inventory, and the inventory of 247 steel mill sample coking plants [30][31] 09 Variety Spreads: Decline in Steel Mill's Disk Profit, Expansion of Hot - rolled and Rebar Spread - The steel mill's disk profit declined, and the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar expanded. Graphs show the steel mill's disk profit of rebar, the ratio of coke to coking coal, the ratio of rebar to iron ore and rebar to coke, and the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [32][33] 10 Key Data/Policy/Information - The draft report of the 2026 national economic and social development plan aims to balance supply and demand in key industries such as steel, and reduce energy consumption and carbon emissions. International events include measures to ensure the safety of the Strait of Hormuz, the release of strategic oil reserves, and geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East. Domestic economic data shows that the national fixed - asset investment increased by 1.8% year - on - year from January to February, and 5.2% after excluding real estate development investment [38]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In terms of supply and demand, steel production continued to rise this week. Rebar production was similar to the same period last year, while hot-rolled coil production was at a low level. Construction steel demand recovered at a similar pace to last year, hot-rolled coil demand was weak, and cold-rolled coil and medium-thick plate demand were at the highest levels for the same period, showing strong demand resilience. Steel inventories decreased slightly and entered the destocking phase, but rebar inventories in East China were high, and the hot-rolled coil warehouse receipt volume was at the highest level for the same period. The overall fundamental contradictions in the steel market were not obvious, and the driving force was not strong. Pig iron production recovered significantly, supporting raw material demand. Geopolitical disturbances continued, and the problem of available iron ore resources remained unresolved, providing some support at the cost end [2]. - From the perspective of driving factors, the basis of rebar is bullish, while that of hot-rolled coil is bearish. Although steel mill profits are not high, they are generally acceptable, and there is an expectation of continued resumption of production, so the supply side will continue to increase. Real estate and infrastructure investment data are weak, while the demand for cold-rolled and medium-thick plates is strong, and the differentiation continues. The destocking slope driven by the overall demand recovery speed of steel in the later stage is crucial. At the same time, the raw material side is greatly affected by non-supply and demand disturbances, providing support. Currently, the black market still lacks strong driving forces, and the trading logic may shift to actual supply and demand in the later stage. It is advisable to sell spot steel at high prices or hedge at an appropriate time [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Monthly Data - In December 2025, the monthly production of pig iron was 60720,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.9%; the cumulative production was 137,700,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.7%. The monthly production of crude steel was 68180,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.3%; the cumulative production was 160,340,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.6%. The monthly production of steel was 115,310,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8%; the cumulative production was 221,190,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%. Steel imports were 370,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 33.5%; the cumulative imports were 830,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 21.7%. Steel exports were 7840,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5%; the cumulative exports were 15,590,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.1% [4]. Five Major Steel Products Weekly Data - As of March 20, 2026, the weekly production of rebar was 2,033,300 tons, an increase of 80,300 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 7%; consumption was 2,080,900 tons, an increase of 312,800 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 10%; inventory was 8,894,100 tons, a decrease of 47,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.26%. The weekly production of wire rod was 805,800 tons, an increase of 30,100 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year change of 0%; consumption was 850,000 tons, an increase of 155,700 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 2%; inventory was 1,928,600 tons, a decrease of 40,900 tons, a year-on-year increase of 10%. The weekly production of hot-rolled coil was 3,002,100 tons, an increase of 49,500 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 5%; consumption was 3,105,100 tons, an increase of 151,500 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 5%; inventory was 4,612,900 tons, a decrease of 103,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 13%. The weekly production of cold-rolled coil was 888,500 tons, an increase of 5,800 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 2.22%; consumption was 946,100 tons, an increase of 34,100 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 2.81%; inventory was 1,830,800 tons, a decrease of 57,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.81%. The weekly production of medium-thick plate was 1,668,500 tons, an increase of 22,800 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 4.32%; consumption was 1,706,000 tons, an increase of 49,900 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 4.24%; inventory was 2,195,900 tons, a decrease of 37,500 tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.75%. The total weekly production of the five major steel products was 8,398,200 tons, an increase of 188,500 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 2.86%; total consumption was 8,680,000 tons, an increase of 700,000 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 3.24%; total inventory was 19,460,000 tons, a decrease of 286,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.84% [5]. Steel Production Profit - On March 19, 2026, the profit of rebar from blast furnaces in East China was 110, a decrease of 18; the profit of rebar from electric furnaces using off-peak electricity was 31, a decrease of 2; the profit of rebar from electric furnaces using normal electricity was -90, a decrease of 2; the profit of hot-rolled coil from blast furnaces was 62, a decrease of 8. In North China, the profit of rebar from blast furnaces was 80, a decrease of 10; the profit of rebar from electric furnaces using off-peak electricity was 0, with no change; the profit of rebar from electric furnaces using normal electricity was -84, with no change; the profit of hot-rolled coil from blast furnaces was -34, an increase of 2. In Central China, the profit of rebar from blast furnaces was 175, with no change; the profit of rebar from electric furnaces using off-peak electricity was -10, with no change; the profit of rebar from electric furnaces using normal electricity was -142, with no change; the profit of hot-rolled coil from blast furnaces was 85, with no change [20]. Steel Demand - Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative year-on-year decrease in the commercial housing transaction area of 30 large and medium-sized cities compared with the same period last year was 19%, and the cumulative year-on-year increase in the land transaction area of 100 cities was 1.4% [27]. - In 2025, China's steel exports to Iran were only 270,000 tons, which can be ignored, but exports to the seven Gulf countries were about 14,000,000 tons, accounting for about 11.7% of China's total steel exports. Due to the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, China's steel export orders and shipments to this region have been affected. Therefore, the war has a negative impact on China's steel exports in the short term, but if the war continues, the local steel shortage may need to be filled by China, which will form an indirect benefit. From January to February this year, steel exports decreased by 8% year-on-year [35]. Steel Inventory and Basis - The rebar basis rebounded slightly this week and was still slightly higher year-on-year. Currently, rebar production and apparent demand are similar to the same period last year, and there are price increases for certain specifications in some areas. This week, rebar entered the destocking phase, but the inventory in Hangzhou was still at the highest level for the same period, facing certain destocking pressure, and the room for the basis to strengthen was limited [49]. - The hot-rolled coil basis fluctuated at a low level this week. The hot-rolled coil inventory was high, and the warehouse receipts were at a high level for the same period, suppressing the basis. However, the basis has now fallen to a low level for the same period, and the room for further weakening is limited [53]. - The 5 - 10 month spread of rebar fluctuated little this week. During the destocking phase, the month spread tends to weaken. At the same time, the inventory level in Hangzhou is high, and the month spread may run weakly in the later stage [59]. - The 5 - 10 month spread of hot-rolled coil strengthened slightly, and the room for further strengthening is limited under the pressure of warehouse receipts and destocking [61].