Report Date - The report was produced on August 27, 2025 [3] Futures Market Overview - As of the close on August 27, most domestic futures contracts ended in the red. Apples and Shanghai nickel rose over 1%. Polysilicon dropped over 4%, while coking coal and crude oil fell over 3%. Alumina, BR rubber, fuel oil, soybean No.2, and styrene declined over 2%. Among stock index futures, the CSI 300 (IF) dropped 1.71%, the SSE 50 (IH) fell 1.85%, the CSI 500 (IC) decreased 1.51%, and the CSI 1000 (IM) tumbled 2.08%. In the bond futures market, the 2-year (TS) rose 0.02%, the 5-year (TF) climbed 0.06%, the 10-year (T) advanced 0.08%, and the 30-year (TL) soared 0.24% [6] Capital Flows - As of 15:22 on August 27, funds flowed into the CSI 500 2509, CSI 1000 2509, and CSI 300 2509 contracts, amounting to 3.741 billion, 1.151 billion, and 566 million respectively. Meanwhile, funds flowed out of the Shanghai gold 2510, Shanghai silver 2510, and SSE 50 2509 contracts, reaching 1.746 billion, 968 million, and 458 million respectively [8] Core Views Copper - Shanghai copper opened lower and closed higher, facing pressure. The probability of a 25% Fed rate cut is currently 85%. The supply of copper is expected to be tight both internationally and domestically, and the inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange remains low. Although the downstream market is in a slack season, there is an expectation of increased demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. Overall, copper prices are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias in the short term [10] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened higher and closed lower. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 81,600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, while the industrial-grade was 79,300 yuan/ton, also down 100 yuan/ton. The import volume in July decreased by 22% month-on-month and 43% year-on-year. The production in August and September is expected to decline by 15% year-on-year. The demand is expected to increase during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, providing support for prices [12] Crude Oil - Crude oil is at the end of the seasonal travel peak. The EIA data shows a larger-than-expected decline in US crude and gasoline inventories. OPEC+ plans to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September. The EIA and IEA have both raised the forecast of global oil surplus, increasing the pressure on crude oil prices in the fourth quarter. The price is expected to have limited upside potential, and it is recommended to short on rallies [13][15] Asphalt - The asphalt production rate decreased by 2.2 percentage points to 30.7% last week. The expected production in August is 2.413 million tons, a decrease of 5.1% month-on-month but an increase of 17.1% year-on-year. The downstream demand is weak due to factors such as funds and weather. The cost support from crude oil has weakened. The asphalt futures are expected to fluctuate in the near term [16] PP - The downstream PP operating rate increased by 0.18 percentage points to 49.53%. The PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 87%. The cost pressure from crude oil is increasing as the consumption peak ends and OPEC+ accelerates production. The new capacity has been put into operation, and the downstream demand is weak. However, the upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" season may bring some support. The PP market is expected to fluctuate in the near term [17][18] Plastic - The plastic operating rate remained at around 84%. The PE downstream operating rate increased by 0.53 percentage points to 40.00%. The cost pressure from crude oil is increasing. The new capacity has been put into operation, and the downstream demand is weak. The upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" season may bring some support. The plastic market is expected to fluctuate in the near term [19] PVC - The PVC operating rate decreased by 2.72 percentage points to 77.61%. The downstream demand is weak, and the export expectation has declined. The social inventory is still high. The PVC market is expected to decline with fluctuations in the near term [20][21] Coking Coal - Coking coal opened lower and closed lower. The import volume in July increased significantly. The domestic production is increasing, and the inventory at mines has increased. The downstream demand is affected by environmental protection. The coking coal market is expected to decline with fluctuations in the near term, but the downside space is limited [22] Urea - Urea opened lower and closed lower. The spot market is weak and stable. The supply is expected to remain stable with the commissioning of new capacity. The demand from the industrial sector is resilient, but the demand for autumn fertilizers has not yet arrived. The inventory is at a high level. The urea market is expected to decline with fluctuations in the short term [23][24]

自願公告 成立合資公司 本 公 告 乃 由 中 國 鋁 業 股 份 有 限 公 司（「本公司」）自 願 作 出。 香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內 容 概 不 負 責，對 其 準 確 性 或 完 整 性 亦 不 發 表 任 何 聲 明，並 明 確 表 示，概 不對因本公告全部或任何部份內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的 任 何 損 失 承 擔 任 何 責 任。 中國鋁業股份有限公司 葛小雷 公司秘書 中國‧北京 2025年8月27日 於 本 公 告 刊 發 日 期，董 事 會 成 員 包 括 執 行 董 事 何 文 建 先 生、毛 世 清 先 生 及 蔣 濤 先 生，非 執 行 董 事 李 謝 華 先 生 及 江 皓 先 生，獨 立 非 執 行 董 事 余 勁 松 先 生、陳 遠 秀 女 士 及 李 小 斌 先 生。 * 僅供識別 於2025年8月27日，經本公司第九屆董事會（「董事會」）第四次會議審議通過， 本 公 司 擬 與 中 國 鋁 業 集 團 有 限 公 司（「中鋁集團」）、雲南銅業股份有限公 司（「雲南銅業」）、雲 南 馳 宏 鋅 鍺 股 份 有 限 公 司（「馳宏鋅鍺 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides investment analysis and strategies for various financial and commodity futures and options, including intraday and mid - term views, reference strategies, and core logics for each product [1][2][5]. - For financial futures, the stock index futures are expected to have high - level sideways consolidation and index differentiation in the short - term, with a wide - range shock in the medium - term. The treasury bond futures are expected to continue to rebound with long - term bonds being strong in the short - term and remain strong in the medium - term [1][2]. - For commodity futures, different sectors such as metals, black and building materials, livestock and soft commodities, and energy and chemicals have different trends and influencing factors. For example, copper in the metal sector is affected by factors like Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, supply and demand, and inventory [5][6][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures and Options Stock Index Futures - **Varieties**: IF, IH, IC, IM - **Intraday View**: High - level sideways consolidation, index differentiation [1] - **Mid - term View**: Wide - range shock - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in IF2509 cautiously and hold IO - 4300 - P put options for protection - **Core Logic**: Market trading volume has decreased but remains at a high level. Margin trading balance is stable and approaching 2.2 trillion yuan. Leverage funds continue to enter the market, and the trading sentiment of margin trading funds is heating up. The policy side forms multiple positive overlays, providing good support for the market [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Varieties**: TS, TF, T, TL - **Intraday View**: Rebound continues, long - term bonds are strong - **Mid - term View**: Strong - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in TL2512 - **Core Logic**: The central bank's open - market operations turn to net withdrawal, but the previous monthly MLF renewal achieved a large - scale net injection. The inter - bank market liquidity remains abundant. The stock - bond seesaw effect may be further desensitized, and the economic recovery is slow, indicating that the bond market is difficult to switch from bull to bear [2][3]. Commodity Futures and Options Metal and New Energy Materials Sector - **Copper** - **Intraday View**: Fluctuate within the range of 79290 - 80100 (also 78500 - 80000 in another part) [5][51] - **Mid - term View**: Fluctuate within the range of 60000 - 90000 - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt an oscillating operation idea - **Core Logic**: The Fed's September interest - rate cut expectation is high. Supply shows a tightening trend in some aspects, and demand is positive in some areas like China's power grid investment and global energy - storage battery shipments. However, the slowdown in US import demand may weaken the support for copper prices [6][7][51]. - **Industrial Silicon** - **Intraday View**: Run strongly, within the range of 8600 - 8900 (also 8500 - 8800 in another part) [8][54] - **Mid - term View**: Run strongly, within the range of 8500 - 9500 - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt a long - biased approach - **Core Logic**: Supply decreased year - on - year in July. Demand also decreased year - on - year in June. The inventory is at a high level in the past 7 years, but the "Industrial Silicon Industry Kunming Initiative" is expected to boost the price [8][9][54]. - **Polysilicon** - **Intraday View**: Run strongly, within the range of 50,000 - 53,000 - **Mid - term View**: Run strongly, within the range of 45,000 - 65,000 - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt a long - biased approach - **Core Logic**: Supply decreased year - on - year in June. Demand decreased year - on - year in July. The inventory shows obvious oversupply, but the "anti - involution" expectation boosts the price [10][11][12]. - **Aluminum** - **Intraday View**: Run at a high level, within the range of 20600 - 20900 - **Mid - term View**: Run strongly, within the range of 19500 - 21000 - **Reference Strategy**: Sell AL2510 - P - 19300 - **Core Logic**: The supply - side reform in 2017 set a cap on China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity, and the current production capacity increase space is limited. The social inventory is at the second - lowest level in the past 5 years, and the automobile market is performing well, which is beneficial to the aluminum price [13][14][59]. - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Intraday View**: Wide - range fluctuation, within the range of 75,000 - 85,000 - **Mid - term View**: Oscillate strongly, within the range of 70,000 - 100,000 - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt a long - biased approach - **Core Logic**: The spot price has declined recently. Supply increased year - on - year in July, and the total inventory is at a high level within the year [15]. Black and Building Materials Sector - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil** - **Intraday View**: Short - term decline but limited downside space - **Mid - term View**: Lack of upward driving force - **Reference Strategy**: Continue to hold sold out - of - the - money put options on rebar, such as RB2510 - P - 2900 - **Core Logic**: The inflection point of raw material supply and demand has appeared, and the policy - based production restriction is less than expected. However, the explicit inventory of steel products is at the lowest level in the past 5 years, so the downside space in the next 1 - 2 weeks is expected to be limited [17][18][61]. Livestock, Animal Husbandry, and Soft Commodities Sector - **Sugar** - **Intraday View**: Run weakly - **Mid - term View**: Strong bottom support (also oscillate weakly in another part) [20][21][63] - **Reference Strategy**: Exit long positions and wait and see - **Core Logic**: Production and exports in Brazil decreased in July. India is expected to have a large increase in production in the new season, and Thailand is expected to continue to increase production. In China, the domestic refined sugar production has increased significantly year - on - year, and the supply is expected to be marginally looser [23][63]. - **Protein Meal** - **Intraday View**: Rapeseed meal 2601 is weaker than soybean meal 2601 - **Mid - term View**: Soybean meal 2601 will fluctuate sharply in August and September - **Reference Strategy**: Continue to hold the strategy of shorting soybean oil 2601 and going long on palm oil 2601 - **Core Logic**: The average yields of US corn and soybeans are expected to reach record highs. The situation of US soybean exports to China, the harvest progress of Canadian rapeseed, and relevant policies all affect the market [33][34][64]. Energy and Chemicals Sector - **Crude Oil** - **Intraday View**: There is upward space - **Mid - term View**: Under pressure - **Reference Strategy**: Sell out - of - the - money put options on SC crude oil - **Core Logic**: OPEC + maintains the production - increase strategy in September. The supply of heavy - oil is still tight due to sanctions, but the supply from Venezuela may increase. The demand shows different trends in different regions and products, and the inventory is expected to accumulate in the third - quarter end [40][41][67]. - **PVC** - **Intraday View**: Stabilize and rebound (also run weakly in another part) [42][70] - **Mid - term View**: Support at the bottom - **Reference Strategy**: Continue to hold the strategy of selling out - of - the - money put options on PVC - **Core Logic**: The cost of calcium carbide increases, the supply decreases due to equipment maintenance but may increase in the future. The demand is weak, and the inventory is currently accumulating but may decrease later [43][44][70].

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View - The copper market is currently in a transition period between the off - season and peak season. With the withdrawal of the waste copper investment promotion policy, the short - term output of recycled copper rods has decreased, leading to an increase in the substitution consumption of refined copper rods. It is expected that domestic inventories will decline in the future, and LME inventories will be transferred to China with the import window open. The low - inventory support logic will continue, and copper prices are likely to rise rather than fall [10] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The Shanghai copper market oscillated and declined. The US dollar rose against major currencies, and the market digested Powell's speech. The upward trend of A - shares paused, and the market's bullish sentiment decreased. Nearly 4 billion yuan of funds flowed out of industrial products. Shanghai copper retraced throughout the day and closed lower at the end of the session. The near - month back spread widened to 40, the spot price increased by 190 to 79,585, the spot premium decreased by 10 to 130. The spot import profit was 150, the Shanghai - London ratio dropped to 8.09, and the LME0 - 3 contango structure narrowed to 78. The market is optimistic about the September premium, and holders are firm on prices [10] 2. Industry News - First Quantum Minerals abandoned the plan to sell its stake in Zambian copper mines. On August 25, it announced that a $1 billion gold deal had alleviated its balance - sheet pressure, so it shelved the plan to sell its minority stake in two Zambian copper mines [11] - Ivanhoe Mines advanced the drainage plan for the Kamoa copper project. After the drainage of the eastern area of the Kamoa - Kakula copper mine was completed, mining operations are expected to resume early next year. The company also plans to release new production forecasts in the coming weeks [11] - The US plans to include copper and potash in the list of critical minerals. The US government will add copper, potash, silicon, silver, lead, and rhenium to the draft list of critical minerals, while tellurium and arsenic will be removed [12]

Group 1: Non-ferrous Metals - Copper prices have rebounded, surpassing $9,000 due to rising expectations of overseas interest rate cuts, which could trigger a second price increase wave for CCL manufacturers as copper accounts for over 30% of their costs [1] - A $100 increase in copper prices could compress CCL gross margins by approximately 1.5-2 percentage points, incentivizing major manufacturers to issue price increase notices [1] - Tin production has been halted due to an accident at Hunan Xinlong Mining, which accounts for 10% of China's and 6% of global capacity; if the shutdown lasts over a month, it will exacerbate the global supply gap [1] Group 2: Artificial Intelligence - The release of the "Artificial Intelligence+" action plan aims for over 70% penetration of smart terminals/agents by 2027, exceeding 90% by 2030, and achieving a fully intelligent society by 2035 [2] - The key highlight of this policy compared to the 2015 "Internet+" initiative is the inclusion of penetration rates as quantifiable KPIs, indicating that fiscal policies, state-owned enterprise procurement, subsidies, and demonstration projects will focus on achieving these targets [2] Group 3: Livestock Industry - Since May, the policy focus has shifted from "stabilizing production and supply" to "reducing excess" in the pig industry, with a slight decrease in the breeding sow inventory ending an 18-month growth streak [3] - A 1% decrease in breeding sows could lead to a 5% long-term increase in pig prices, with projections suggesting that the price center could rise to 16-17 yuan/kg by 2026 [3] - Several insurance funds and FOFs have shifted their investments in the breeding sector from cyclical plays to high-dividend combinations, anticipating an increase in dividend rates from 40% to 60-70% under supportive policies and improved cash flow [3] Group 4: Chemical Industry - The phosphate fertilizer export policy has transitioned to a "dual-track system," effective from 2025, regulating exports through a combination of supply assurance and quota-based exports [4] - This new pricing mechanism aims to manage domestic price differences and capitalize on high overseas prices, with current FOB prices for diammonium phosphate at $803/ton and domestic ex-factory prices at 4,000 yuan/ton, yielding over 2,000 yuan profit per ton exported [4] Group 5: Financial Sector - China Ping An reported a 39.8% year-on-year increase in NBV, with the bancassurance channel growing by 16%, and CCL high-dividend stocks generating an additional 16.1 billion yuan [5] - The financial policy environment is stabilizing, with interest margins at a low point and non-performing loan ratios declining, suggesting that banks like Hangzhou Bank, Jiangsu Bank, and Qingdao Bank may see relative returns in Q3 due to their valuation bottoms and high dividends [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market may experience increased short - term volatility after recent continuous rises, but the general strategy is to go long on dips. In the bond market, there is still room for interest rates to decline, but it may return to a volatile pattern in the short term. For precious metals, it is recommended to go long on silver on dips. For most non - ferrous metals, prices are expected to be volatile with a slightly upward trend. In the black building materials sector, steel products face weak demand, while iron ore is expected to be volatile. For energy chemicals, the trends vary by product, and for agricultural products, different products have different outlooks based on supply and demand [3][6][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Financial 3.1.1 Stock Index - Policy: The State Council released an opinion on implementing the "Artificial Intelligence +" action, aiming for over 70% penetration of new - generation intelligent terminals by 2027 [2]. - Fund Scale: In July, the scale of money funds increased by over 38 billion yuan, stock funds by over 19 billion yuan, and hybrid funds by over 13 billion yuan, while bond funds decreased by over 4.6 billion yuan [2]. - Company Performance: Cambrian achieved an operating income of 2.881 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year - on - year increase of 4347.82%, and a net profit of 1.038 billion yuan, turning a profit year - on - year [2]. - International Data: US durable goods orders in July decreased by 2.8% month - on - month, better than the expected 4% decline [2]. - Trading Logic: The market may be volatile in the short term but the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [3]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - Market Performance: On Tuesday, TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts all rose [4]. - News: Trump fired Fed governor Lisa Cook, and Guangdong plans to issue 2.5 billion yuan of offshore RMB local government bonds in Macau [4]. - Liquidity: The central bank conducted 40.58 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 17.45 billion yuan [5][6]. - Strategy: Interest rates may decline in the long term but the bond market may be volatile in the short term [6]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals - Market Performance: Shanghai gold rose 0.21%, Shanghai silver fell 0.30%, COMEX gold rose 0.24%, and COMEX silver rose 0.22% [7]. - Market Outlook: US economic data pressured precious metals prices in the short term, but Trump's action may lead the Fed to turn dovish. It is recommended to go long on silver on dips [7][8]. 3.2 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.2.1 Copper - Market Performance: LME copper rose 0.38%, and Shanghai copper closed at 79,420 yuan/ton [10]. - Industry Situation: LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic copper supply is expected to be in a slightly surplus situation. Copper prices are expected to be volatile and slightly upward [10]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - Market Performance: LME aluminum rose 0.63%, and Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,880 yuan/ton [11]. - Industry Situation: Domestic aluminum inventory is low, and demand is expected to improve. Aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and slightly upward [11]. 3.2.3 Zinc - Market Performance: Shanghai zinc index fell 0.52%, and LME zinc rose [12]. - Industry Situation: Zinc ore inventory is rising, but the dovish Fed statement strengthens the support for zinc prices. Zinc prices are expected to be volatile in the short term [12][13]. 3.2.4 Lead - Market Performance: Shanghai lead index rose 0.38%, and LME lead rose [14]. - Industry Situation: Lead supply is increasing, and downstream demand is warming up in the short term but faces pressure in the medium term [14]. 3.2.5 Nickel - Market Performance: Shanghai nickel rose 0.05% [15]. - Industry Situation: Nickel supply is in surplus, and stainless steel demand is weak. Nickel prices are expected to be volatile [15]. 3.2.6 Tin - Market Performance: Shanghai tin fell 0.05% [16]. - Industry Situation: Tin supply is low, and demand is weak. Tin prices are expected to be volatile [16]. 3.2.7 Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: The MMLC index was flat, and the LC2511 contract fell 0.45% [17]. - Industry Situation: Lithium mica supply is shrinking, and the price is expected to be supported. Attention should be paid to overseas supply [17]. 3.2.8 Alumina - Market Performance: The alumina index fell 3.47% [18]. - Industry Situation: Ore supply is disturbed, and the Fed's dovish statement may support the price. It is recommended to wait and see [18]. 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - Market Performance: The stainless - steel main contract fell 0.31% [19]. - Industry Situation: Short - term demand is weak, but it is expected to improve with the arrival of the peak season [20]. 3.2.10 Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Performance: The AD2511 contract fell 0.32% [21]. - Industry Situation: The downstream is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and the price may rise, but there is delivery pressure [21]. 3.3 Black Building Materials 3.3.1 Steel - Market Performance: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices fell [23]. - Industry Situation: Steel demand is weak, inventory is accumulating, and prices may continue to decline if demand does not improve [24]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - Market Performance: The iron ore main contract fell 1.33% [26]. - Industry Situation: Overseas shipments are stable, demand is flat, and inventory is rising slightly. Iron ore prices are expected to be volatile [27]. 3.3.3 Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: Spot prices are stable, inventory is rising slightly, and prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [28]. - Soda Ash: Spot prices are stable, inventory pressure is decreasing, and prices are expected to be volatile in the short term and gradually rise in the long term [29]. 3.3.4 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market Performance: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices fell [31]. - Industry Situation: Iron alloy prices are affected by market sentiment. It is recommended for speculative funds to wait and see and for hedging funds to participate [32]. 3.3.5 Industrial Silicon - Market Performance: The industrial silicon main contract fell 1.84% [34]. - Industry Situation: Supply is increasing, demand support is limited, and prices are expected to be volatile [35]. 3.3.6 Polysilicon - Market Performance: The polysilicon main contract fell 1.15% [36]. - Industry Situation: It is in a "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern, and prices are expected to be highly volatile [36]. 3.4 Energy Chemicals 3.4.1 Rubber - Market Performance: NR and RU were in a volatile consolidation [38]. - Industry Situation: There are different views on the rise and fall. It is expected that rubber prices will be volatile and slightly upward [39][42]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil - Market Performance: WTI fell 2.21%, Brent fell 2.17%, and INE rose 0.66% [43]. - Industry Situation: The fundamentals are healthy, but seasonal demand may limit the upside. The short - term target price for WTI is $70.4/barrel [43]. 3.4.3 Methanol - Market Performance: The 01 contract fell [44]. - Industry Situation: Supply is increasing, demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [44]. 3.4.4 Urea - Market Performance: The 01 contract fell [45]. - Industry Situation: Supply pressure exists, demand is weak, and it is recommended to go long on dips [45][46]. 3.4.5 Styrene - Market Performance: Spot and futures prices fell, and the basis strengthened [47]. - Industry Situation: Cost support exists, inventory is rising, and prices may rebound after inventory reduction [47]. 3.4.6 PVC - Market Performance: The 01 contract fell [49]. - Industry Situation: Supply is strong, demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [49]. 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - Market Performance: The EG01 contract fell [50]. - Industry Situation: Supply is still in surplus, and there is downward pressure on valuation in the medium term [50][51]. 3.4.8 PTA - Market Performance: The PTA01 contract rose [52]. - Industry Situation: Supply is decreasing, demand is improving, and it is recommended to go long on dips [52]. 3.4.9 Para - Xylene - Market Performance: The PX11 contract rose [53]. - Industry Situation: PX load is high, and there is support for valuation. It is recommended to go long on dips [53]. 3.4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - Market Performance: Futures prices fell [54]. - Industry Situation: Cost support exists, inventory is decreasing, and prices may rise [54]. 3.4.11 Polypropylene (PP) - Market Performance: Futures prices fell [56]. - Industry Situation: Supply and demand are weak, and it is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract on dips [56]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Live Pigs - Market Performance: Pig prices fell [58]. - Industry Situation: Supply is excessive, and the market is in a range - bound pattern [58]. 3.5.2 Eggs - Market Performance: Egg prices were stable or rose [59]. - Industry Situation: The egg market is in a supply - surplus cycle, and it is recommended to reduce short positions or short on rebounds [59]. 3.5.3 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Market Performance: US soybeans rose slightly, and domestic soybean meal was relatively weak [60]. - Industry Situation: Supply is sufficient, and it is recommended to go long on dips in the cost - range low [60][61]. 3.5.4 Oils and Fats - Market Performance: Domestic oils and fats were weakly volatile [63]. - Industry Situation: There are multiple factors supporting the price, and palm oil is expected to be volatile and slightly upward [63][64]. 3.5.5 Sugar - Market Performance: Zhengzhou sugar futures prices fell [65]. - Industry Situation: International and domestic supply is increasing, and prices are likely to continue to decline [65]. 3.5.6 Cotton - Market Performance: Zhengzhou cotton futures prices were volatile [66]. - Industry Situation: Fundamentals are expected to improve, and prices may rise in the short term [66].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For copper, the fundamentals remain unchanged, demand is at the end of the off - season, and there is no upward driving force. With short - term large - scale fluctuations being unlikely, it is advisable to focus on range trading [9] - For lithium carbonate, the market is close to the peak season, with demand providing support at the bottom and limited decline. However, it is easily affected by industry news, so cautious operation is recommended [11] - For crude oil, although the price has rebounded, the subsequent consumption peak season is ending, and OPEC+ is accelerating production increases. It is recommended to sell on rallies [12] - For asphalt, with both supply and demand being weak and the cost - side support strengthening, the asphalt futures are expected to fluctuate in the near term [14] - For PP, it is expected to fluctuate in the near term. It is recommended to take profit on the 09 - 01 reverse spread [15][16] - For plastic, it is expected to fluctuate in the near term [17] - For PVC, it is expected to fluctuate downward due to its own fundamental pressure [19] - For coking coal, the market sentiment is volatile, and the fundamentals have no significant changes, with the price oscillating at a high level [20] - For urea, it is in a weak consolidation stage. It is advisable to short on rebounds in the short term, and there is support at the bottom [22] Summaries by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of the close on August 26, most domestic futures main contracts declined. Peanut, log, and 20 - gauge rubber rose slightly. Alumina and coking coal dropped by over 3%, while industrial silicon, container shipping to Europe, coke, and polysilicon dropped by over 2%. Glass, soda ash, and styrene dropped nearly 2%. Among stock index futures, IF dropped 0.22%, IH dropped 0.40%, IC rose 0.17%, and IM dropped 0.10%. Among treasury bond futures, TS rose 0.01%, TF rose 0.04%, T rose 0.06%, and TL rose 0.47% [6] Capital Flow - As of 15:18 on August 26, in terms of capital inflow in domestic futures main contracts, alumina 2601 had an inflow of 373 million, Shanghai copper 2510 had an inflow of 332 million, and 30 - year treasury bond 2512 had an inflow of 196 million. In terms of capital outflow, CSI 300 2509 had an outflow of 4.638 billion, CSI 1000 2509 had an outflow of 4.034 billion, and CSI 500 2509 had an outflow of 3.377 billion [7] Analysis of Specific Varieties Copper - Supply: Codelco adjusted its production target downward. The port inventory of refined copper ore has decreased, and the TC/RC fees are rising. The sulfuric acid price is high, supporting smelter profits. The production of refined copper is expected to remain stable in the short term, but there may be production cuts in the later third quarter [9] - Demand: Downstream demand is lukewarm, with new orders increasing but market trading volume decreasing. The real estate sector is a drag, but the power grid and new energy bring demand resilience [9] - Inventory: The inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange has increased this week, indicating weak short - term demand [9] Lithium Carbonate - Price: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 81,700 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [10] - Supply: The production from August to September is expected to decline by 15% year - on - year. Yichun Yinli has resumed production, but CATL has not [11] - Demand: After the price correction, downstream purchasing sentiment has been stimulated, and there is support at the bottom [11] Crude Oil - Inventory: EIA data shows that the inventory of crude oil and gasoline has decreased more than expected [12] - Production: OPEC+ plans to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September [12] - Price: Saudi Aramco has raised the official selling price of Arab Light crude oil for Asia in September [12] Asphalt - Supply: The asphalt production rate has decreased, and the planned production in August is 2.413 million tons, a decrease of 5.1% from the previous month [14] - Demand: Affected by factors such as funds, rainfall, and high temperatures, the demand is weak [14] PP - Supply: The new capacity of CNOOC Ningbo Daxie PP is planned to be put into production in August, and the number of maintenance devices has decreased slightly [15] - Demand: The downstream demand is weak, but there may be an improvement during the peak season [15] Plastic - Supply: The new capacity of Jilin Petrochemical's HDPE was put into operation at the end of July, and the plastic production rate has increased [17] - Demand: The agricultural film is gradually emerging from the off - season, but the raw material replenishment is not strong [17] PVC - Supply: The PVC production rate has decreased, and new capacities are being put into production [18][19] - Demand: The downstream demand is weak, and the export outlook is not optimistic [18][19] Coking Coal - Supply: The import volume in July increased significantly, and the domestic production has rebounded [20] - Demand: The downstream coke production enthusiasm has improved, but the steel mill profits have weakened [20] Urea - Supply: The daily production is around 190,000 tons, and there are maintenance plans this week, with production expected to decrease [21] - Demand: The industrial demand has some resilience, but is affected by environmental protection restrictions. The inventory is at a high level [21][22]

【冠通研究】 沪铜震荡运行 制作日期：2025 年 8 月 26 日 【策略分析】 今日沪铜高开高走，日内下挫尾盘翻绿。特朗普签署行政令罢免美联储理事库克， 加剧市场对美联储独立性的担忧，铜价承压。供给方面，智利国有铜业公司（Codelco） 上调对于事故损失的估计，下调了 2025 年的产量目标，5 月精炼铜产量同比增长 14.0%，精铜矿港口库存去化至近五年低位水平，冶炼厂 TC/RC 费用继续企稳回升，长协 订单有盈利，现货订单依然亏损，硫酸价目前处于历史同期高位水平，支撑冶炼厂利 润，目前 8 月仅 1 家冶炼厂有检修计划，且华东新投产的冶炼厂开始生产，预计精铜产 量波动幅度不大，冶炼厂三季度后期或因矿端资源偏紧及硫酸胀库而减产停产。需求方 面，下游需求表现为不温不火，新增订单有增加，市场成交量环比减少，房地产依然拖 累下游需求，1-7 月房地产开发投资同比下降 12%，新建商品房销售面积同比下降 4%。 但电网及新能源带来需求韧性。上期所库存本周表现为累库，反映了短期内需求疲软， 供需宽松的格局。综合来看，基本面暂无明显变动，需求处于淡季尾端，无向上驱动 力。昨日美联储降息预期升温提振铜行情，今日美 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expectation of the Fed cutting interest rates in September has increased, there is an expectation of the traditional off - season turning into the peak season in the domestic market, and the global total inventory of electrolytic copper has started to decline, which may lead to a cautious and bullish trend in the price of Shanghai copper. It is recommended that investors hold their long positions from the previous day cautiously and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, LME copper, and COMEX copper [3]. - The Shanghai copper basis is negative and at a relatively low level, while the monthly spread is positive and basically within a reasonable range. Due to factors such as the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut in September, continuous tight supply of global copper concentrates, and the expectation of the traditional off - season turning into the peak season in the domestic market, investors are advised to pay attention to the short - term arbitrage opportunity of going long on the Shanghai copper basis at low prices [7]. - The (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contract spreads of LME copper are negative and at relatively low levels, and the ratio of Shanghai - LME copper prices is at the 75% quantile of the past five - year average. Considering factors such as Trump's tariff policy and the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut in September, investors are advised to temporarily wait and see regarding the arbitrage opportunity of the LME copper (3 - 15) contract spread [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - environment - Import tariffs have pushed up commodity prices, leading to an increase in the US PPI annual rate in July and the core CPI annual rate in the consumer sector. Fed Chairman Powell indicated that the change in the risk balance may require policy adjustment due to the weak supply and demand in employment, which has increased the expectation of a Fed interest - rate cut in September. However, attention should be paid to the new non - farm payrolls in the US in August and the CPI on September 5th and 11th [2]. Upstream - In August, the domestic production (import) volume of copper concentrates increased (increased) month - on - month. The export restriction of high - quality scrap copper in Europe has limited Chinese importers to purchasing copper rice or brass. Uncertainty in Sino - US tariff negotiations has led to low direct imports of US scrap copper by traders, who instead supply through transit countries such as Japan, South Korea, and Thailand. The negative spread between domestic electrolytic copper and bright and aged scrap copper may weaken the economic viability of scrap copper, closing the scrap copper import window. As a result, the domestic production (import) volume of scrap copper in August may increase (decrease) month - on - month, and the supply - demand outlook is tight [2][25]. - The No. 1 smelting furnace of Jiangxi Keli Copper Industry's 150,000 - ton anode plate project (Phase II: 250,000 - ton copper rod project; Phase III: 200,000 - ton cathode copper and copper alloy project) was ignited on August 11th. The weekly processing fees for crude copper in northern (southern) China remained flat (decreased) month - on - month, and the capacity utilization rate of domestic scrap - produced anode plate production decreased compared to the previous week. The capacity for crude smelting maintenance in domestic smelters in August may decrease month - on - month, which may lead to an increase (increase) in the domestic production (import) volume of crude copper in August [2][28]. - The 600,000 - ton cathode copper production capacity of Jianfa Shenghai may be put into operation in May 2026. The second - phase project of Jiangxi Copper Hongyuan with an annual production capacity of 150,000 tons of cathode copper started construction in Guixi at the end of March and will achieve a capacity of 250,000 tons after completion. These factors may lead to a month - on - month decrease in the domestic production volume of electrolytic copper in August. The delay in ship bookings due to African agricultural exports until late August has led to inventory accumulation of electrolytic copper in Durban and Dar es Salaam ports, which may result in a month - on - month decrease in the domestic import volume of electrolytic copper in August [2][34]. Downstream - The capacity utilization rate of domestic refined copper rods (recycled copper rods) increased (decreased) compared to the previous week. The raw material (finished product) inventory of refined copper rod enterprises decreased (decreased) compared to the previous week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory of recycled copper rod enterprises also decreased (decreased) compared to the previous week. The capacity utilization rate of domestic copper wire and cable decreased compared to the previous week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory of copper wire and cable enterprises decreased (increased) compared to the previous week. The order volume (capacity utilization rate) of domestic copper enameled wire decreased (decreased) compared to the previous week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of enameled wire enterprises decreased (decreased) compared to the previous week. The capacity utilization rate (production volume) of domestic copper strips decreased (decreased) compared to the previous week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of copper strip enterprises decreased (remained flat) compared to the previous week. The capacity utilization rate of domestic copper tubes decreased compared to the previous week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of copper tube enterprises increased (increased) compared to the previous week. The capacity utilization rate of domestic brass rods increased compared to the previous week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of brass rod enterprises decreased (decreased) compared to the previous week [3][35][49]. - In August, the capacity utilization rate of copper wire and cable (due to weak terminal orders in construction and relatively stable orders in the power grid and new energy sectors) and copper enameled wire (due to weakening terminal demand in household appliances and significant order decline) may decrease month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate of copper strips (although demand in new energy vehicles, power, and high - end electronics is good, but demand in household appliances and photovoltaics is weak, resulting in a significant decline， in new orders for some enterprises) and copper foils (due to the significant increase in demand for HVLP ultra - low profile copper foils in the AI field, orders for many copper foil enterprises are saturated) may increase month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate of copper tubes (as the estimated total production volume of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in August is lower than that of last year, and high tariffs suppress export orders to the US) may decrease month - on - month, while the capacity utilization rate of brass rods (due to the potential growth in demand from new energy and power sectors, which may improve large - enterprise orders, but small and medium - sized enterprises still face high raw material costs, tight funds, and insufficient orders) may increase month - on - month [55][63][69]. Inventory - The domestic electrolytic copper social inventory decreased compared to the previous week. The opening of the import window may increase the domestic import volume of electrolytic copper, leading to a decrease in the inventory of electrolytic copper in China's bonded areas compared to the previous week. The inventory of electrolytic copper in the London Metal Exchange increased compared to the previous week [16][17]. - The inventory of copper concentrates at Chinese ports decreased compared to the previous week [20]. - The COMEX copper inventory increased compared to the previous week [19]. Futures Spread and Structure - The Shanghai copper basis is negative and at a relatively low level, and the monthly spread is positive and basically within a reasonable range [7]. - The (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contract spreads of LME copper are negative and at relatively low levels, and the ratio of Shanghai - LME copper prices is at the 75% quantile of the past five - year average [8]. - The spreads between COMEX copper and LME copper, as well as between COMEX copper and Shanghai copper, are negative and basically within a reasonable range. The spreads between different - maturity contracts of COMEX copper are also negative and basically within a reasonable range [10][12]. - The closing prices of near - and far - term contracts of Shanghai copper show a Back structure, while those of COMEX copper show a Contango structure [13]. Position - The ratio of non - commercial long to short positions in COMEX copper decreased month - on - month. The non - commercial long (short) positions decreased (increased), and the commercial long (short) positions increased (increased) [18][19].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the growth in China's refined copper (electrolytic copper) production, with a projected output of 1.3 million tons by June 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.2% [1] - In the first half of 2025, China's cumulative production of refined copper reached 7.363 million tons, showing a cumulative growth of 9.5% [1] - The report by Zhiyan Consulting provides an analysis of the market status and investment prospects for the electrolytic copper foil industry in China from 2025 to 2031 [1] Group 2 - Listed companies in the copper industry include Jiangxi Copper, Yunnan Copper, Zijin Mining, Tongling Nonferrous Metals, Western Mining, Silver Industry, Chuangjiang New Material, Hailiang Co., Xin Ke Materials, and Xiyang Co [1] - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in in-depth industry research reports, business plans, feasibility studies, and customized services [2]