Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report by S&P Global indicates that global copper demand is expected to increase by 50% by 2040, driven by the growth of artificial intelligence and the defense industry, while supply may face a shortfall of over 10 million tons annually if recycling and mining are not improved [2] - The report highlights that the demand for copper will rise significantly from 28 million tons in 2025 to 42 million tons by 2040, with nearly a quarter of this demand potentially unmet without new supply sources [2] - Factors contributing to this demand include global electrification, with copper being essential for various industries such as construction, transportation, technology, and electronics [2] Group 2 - The report notes that the conflict in Ukraine and increased defense spending in countries like Japan and Germany may further elevate copper demand [2] - Chile and Peru are identified as the largest copper mining countries, while China is the largest copper smelting nation, with the U.S. relying on imports for half of its copper demand [3] - The report does not consider potential supply from deep-sea mining, and it adopts the assumption that copper demand will rise regardless of government climate policies [4][5]

商 品 研 究 2026 年 01 月 08 日 铜：LME 现货升水下滑，价格上涨放缓 宏观方面，美国"小非农"12 月 ADP 就业人数增长 4.1 万，扭转 11 月下滑但低于增幅预期；美 11 月 JOLTS 职位空缺降至一年多低点、四年来首次少于失业数，招聘放缓；美 12 月 ISM 服务业 PMI 54.4 创一 年多新高，需求稳健，招聘回暖。（华尔街见闻） 工信部等八部门：加速智能终端升级，到 2027 年中国人工智能关键核心技术实现安全可靠供给。（华 尔街见闻） 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | 昨日收盘价 | | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铜主力合约 | 103,410 | -1.81% | 102030 | -1.33% | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 12,866 | -2.93% | - | - | | 昨日成交 | | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 沪铜指数 ...

Group 1 - The Chinese government has issued new regulations to strengthen export controls on dual-use items to Japan, leading to a 1.06% drop in the Nikkei index on January 7 [10] - The South Korean stock market continues its upward trend, with the KOSPI index surpassing 4500 points, driven by a cyclical recovery in the global semiconductor industry and government initiatives to stimulate high-tech innovation [9] - The Venezuelan stock market surged over 50%, with the IBC index rising from approximately 2000 points to nearly 3900 points, reflecting a return of investor optimism amid potential economic and political changes [7][8] Group 2 - Citigroup has raised its short-term copper price target to $14,000 per ton but warned that the price surge may be nearing its peak, with January potentially being the highest point for 2026 [7] - The price of storage chips has seen an "epic" increase, with DDR4 16Gb memory prices rising by 1800%, and the supply shortage is expected to persist into 2026, benefiting related manufacturers [9] - Bitcoin prices have rebounded, reaching their highest level since November, with a year-to-date increase of 6.65%, amid speculation regarding Venezuela's hidden cryptocurrency assets valued at $60 billion [10]

SMM联合制作联系人 刘明康 156 5309 0867 他还称："美国铜关税的阴影仍然是市场的一个影响因素，因为，无论关税是否实施，我们认为美国的高库存短期内不太可能再出口，即便有可能，也不会 很快。" （文华综合） 作为全球最大的铜消费国，中国产业链面临三大挑战：上游资源对外依存度攀升、中游加工环节产能过剩、下游需求受高铜价抑制。为助力行业应对变局， 上海有色网携手铜产业链企业联合编制《2026中国铜产业链分布图》中英双语版，点击此链接即可免费领取铜产业链分布图： https://s.wcd.im/v/470opZ19l/。 liumingkang@smm.cn 1月7日（周三），在供应趋紧和关税不确定性的担忧下，铜价有所回落，但继续守住每吨13,000美元的关口。 加皇资本市场的Sam Crittenden称："市场平衡状况仍然存在结构性紧张，纽商所库存高企是以牺牲全球交易所库存为代价的。" ...

Group 1 - Kangfang Biotech (09926) shares rose over 6% after the approval of an important update to the product label for its PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody, Ivosidenib, which showed significant clinical benefits in treating advanced non-squamous non-small cell lung cancer [1] - Sunac China (01918) shares fell over 6% as the company reported a contract sales amount of 2.95 billion RMB in December, a year-on-year increase of 68.6%, but with a decrease in average sales price per square meter by 14.4% [1] - Nanshan Aluminum International (02610) saw a nearly 14% increase in shares, attributed to a tight global electrolytic aluminum market, with Indonesia being a key marginal supplier [1] Group 2 - Optical communication stocks rebounded, with Longi Fiber Optic (06869) up 7.46% and Cambridge Technology (06166) up 3.86%, following a significant rise in U.S. optical communication stocks [2] - Hengrui Medicine (01276) shares increased over 2.8% after announcing the approval of two innovative drugs for clinical trials targeting prostate cancer [2] - Cao Cao Travel (02643) shares rose over 7% following the announcement of acquisitions of Yao Travel and Geely Business Travel [2] Group 3 - Hutchison China MediTech (00013) shares increased over 5.3% after announcing positive results from a Phase III trial for a new treatment for autoimmune hemolytic anemia [3] - Geekplus Technology (02590) shares rose slightly by 0.51%, with a report highlighting its stable business model and growth potential due to AI applications [3] Group 4 - Xuan Bamboo Biotech (02575) shares surged over 11.6% after its drug, Pyrotinib, was included in the national medical insurance directory, providing new benefits for advanced breast cancer patients [4] Group 5 - Semiconductor equipment and materials stocks continued to rise, with significant gains for companies like Amkor Technology (AMKR.US) and Lam Research (LRCX.US) [5] - Chinese concept stocks mostly rose, with notable increases for Hesai (HSAI.US) and Pinduoduo (PDD.US), amid a bullish market sentiment [5] - Uber (UBER.US) and Lyft (LYFT.US) saw stock price increases following Nvidia's announcement of advancements in autonomous driving technology [5] Group 6 - Data center cooling stocks experienced a decline, with companies like Modine Manufacturing (MOD.US) and Johnson Controls (JCI.US) facing significant drops [6] - Copper stocks strengthened, with Freeport-McMoRan (FCX.US) and Southern Copper (SCCO.US) showing notable gains as copper futures reached a historic high [6] - The storage sector continued its upward trend, with SanDisk (SNDK.US) achieving a 27.56% increase after launching a new SSD product line [6] Group 7 - Alumis (ALMS.US) shares skyrocketed by 95.31% following positive results from clinical trials for its TYK2 inhibitor targeting psoriasis patients [7] - Tesla (TSLA.US) shares fell over 4.14% as BYD surpassed Tesla in electric vehicle sales in key European markets [7] - Zeta Global (ZETA.US) shares rose 9.83% after announcing a strategic partnership with OpenAI to enhance its product capabilities [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The price of copper is strong due to the boost in computing power demand [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main - contract was 105,320 with a daily increase of 3.92%, and the night - session closing price was 104,600 with a decrease of 0.68%. The LME Copper 3M electronic - trading price was 13,255 with a 1.28% increase. The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai Copper Index and LME Copper 3M electronic - trading also changed compared to the previous day [2]. - **Inventory Data**: The Shanghai Copper inventory was 93,271, an increase of 2,989 compared to the previous day, and the LME Copper inventory was 146,075, an increase of 3,525. The LME Copper注销仓单 ratio was 21.82%, a decrease of 1.08% [2]. - **Spread Data**: There were changes in various spreads such as LME copper ascension and discount, bonded - area warehouse - receipt premium, etc. For example, the LME copper ascension and discount was 41.98, an increase of 3.38 compared to the previous day [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Macro News**: The Trump administration is discussing plans to acquire Greenland, including military options. NVIDIA CFO said that by the end of 2026, the revenue of data - center chips will "definitely" be higher than the $500 billion predicted in October last year, and Huang Renxun said that the demand from Chinese customers is strong [2]. - **Industry News**: In November 2025, China's imports of copper ore and concentrates were 2,526,194.63 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.05% and a year - on - year increase of 13.13%. Chile's government initiated the preliminary mediation process for the labor - contract negotiation of the Mantoverde copper - gold mine. The second - phase expansion project of Julong Copper Mine completed the main - project construction and core - equipment installation and successfully carried out the linkage test run. The Kamoa - Kakula copper smelter produced its first batch of anode copper, with an expected production of 380,000 - 420,000 tons of mineral copper in 2026 (median 400,000 tons). Codelco's copper production in 2025 was 1.332 million tons, slightly higher than in 2024 [2][4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of copper is 2, indicating a strong bullish view [4].

1 行情回顾 2025年铜价重心再度攀升，在多重因素共振下突破2024年高点，刷新历史最高纪录。 2025年1月至3月下旬，美国总统特朗普对中国、加拿大、墨西哥等国加征关税，并宣布对铜进口展开232调查。受关税政策预期影响，COMEX市场和LME 市场的套利交易频繁，COMEX铜价大幅上涨，对LME和国内铜价亦有带动。 3月底至4月上旬，美国实施"对等关税"，全球经济衰退预期升温，股市和期市大幅下挫，铜价也大幅下跌，录得年内最低点。 4月中下旬，美国宣布对其他国家关税暂停90天，市场风险情绪回升，铜价自低位反弹。5月至8月期间，铜价波动幅度较小，美国与中国等国家达成协议， 关税忧虑消退，但在通胀隐忧下，美联储对降息持谨慎态度。7月底，特朗普宣布对几类进口铜产品征收关税，但将铜原材料排除在外，精铜套利交易有所 减弱。 9月至12月，美国非农数据不及预期，美联储重启降息周期。与此同时，印尼Grasberg铜矿因泥石流引发矿泄事故大幅减产。在宏观和基本面共振下，铜价 迎来大幅上涨行情。此外，2026年国内精铜存在减产预期， COMEX铜库存持续创新高，非美货源偏紧，对铜价形成有力支撑。 截至2025年12月31日， ...

Group 1 - U.S. copper stocks strengthened on Tuesday, with Freeport-McMoRan (FCX.US) rising over 3%, Southern Copper (SCCO.US) up more than 3%, BHP (BHP.US) increasing by over 1.9%, and Teck Resources (RECK.US) gaining over 3% [1] - The rise in copper stocks is attributed to the historical milestone of London copper futures reaching $13,000 per ton, marking a continuation of the upward trend for this key industrial metal into 2026 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strong performance of U.S. copper stocks, with notable increases in share prices for companies such as Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (FCX.US), Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO.US), BHP Group (BHP.US), and Teck Resources (RECK.US) [1] - Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (FCX.US) saw an increase of over 3%, while Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO.US) also rose by more than 3% [1] - BHP Group (BHP.US) experienced a rise of over 1.9%, and Teck Resources (RECK.US) increased by more than 3% [1] Group 2 - The article notes that copper futures in London reached a historic milestone, touching the $13,000 per ton mark for the first time, indicating a continuation of the upward trend for this key industrial metal into 2026 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The copper price continues to show a strong trend, and considering the continuous disruptions in copper mine supply, the copper price may continue its upward momentum. It is recommended to continue to focus on long positions in copper [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Latest Dynamics and Reasons - The copper price continues to be strong. The Shanghai copper price has exceeded 105,000 yuan/ton, and the London copper price has exceeded $13,000/ton. Capstone Copper announced that a union strike at its Mantoverde mine in Chile will involve about 22% of the labor force, and the mine's output during the strike is expected to drop to 30% of the normal level, with an annual output of about 50,000 tons. Tongling Nonferrous disclosed that the second - phase project of the Dorimilado copper plant under its subsidiary has officially suspended production due to the overdue signing of the mining contract, further exacerbating the tightness of copper mine supply [2] Fundamental Situation - On the supply side, copper mine supply disruptions continue to increase. The production cut at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia and the delayed commissioning of Tongling Nonferrous' copper mine have tightened the supply. In 2028, the long - term processing fee for copper mines has reached a record low of $0/ton. Chinese copper enterprises plan to reduce expanded production capacity by over 10% in 2026, and Congo has emphasized optimizing copper smelting capacity, strengthening the expectation of a contraction in refined copper supply. On the demand side, with the arrival of the off - season, terminal demand remains weak and inventories continue to accumulate. However, with the strengthening of the supply contraction expectation, the copper market is shifting from oversupply to tightness, and the overall supply - demand expectation is optimistic [3] Summary and Strategy - Looking ahead, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and balance - sheet expansion, the dollar remains weak, which significantly supports the copper price. Given the continuous disruptions in copper mine supply, the copper price may continue its upward trend, and it is advisable to focus on long positions in copper [4]