1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: The steel market is expected to undergo weak consolidation. The rebar futures price decreased, with the 2510 contract closing at 3189 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton or 1.02% from the previous trading day. Spot prices also fell, and trading volume declined. Supply - demand data was weak, with a slight drop in rebar production, a significant increase in inventory, and a decline in apparent demand. Weak RMB loans in July affected market sentiment [1]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate. The main contract i2601 price dropped to 775 yuan/ton, down 2.94% from the previous settlement price. Global iron ore shipments decreased, iron - making production declined, and port and steel mill inventories increased [1]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal market is expected to have wide - range fluctuations. The 2601 contract closed at 1214 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton or 2.49%. The resumption of coal mine production was slow, downstream procurement slowed, and demand from coke - steel enterprises was average [1]. - Coke: The coke market is expected to have wide - range fluctuations. The 2601 contract closed at 1707 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton or 1.73%. The sixth round of price increases was fully implemented, coke enterprises' production was normal, and steel mills' demand for replenishment was relatively active [1]. - Manganese Silicon: The manganese silicon market may experience a slight correction. The main contract price was 6050 yuan/ton, down 1.08%. Supply was increasing, and demand was waiting for the main steel mill's tender price. The fundamental driving force was limited [1][3]. - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon market may experience a correction. The 09 contract price was 5744 yuan/ton, down 2.15%. Supply was increasing, and demand was affected by downstream production control. The fundamental driving force was limited [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: Yesterday, the rebar futures price continued to fall. The 2510 contract closed at 3189 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton or 1.02%, with a decrease of 16,000 lots in positions. Spot prices dropped, and trading volume declined. National rebar production decreased by 0.73 tons week - on - week to 220.45 million tons, social inventory increased by 26.45 million tons to 414.93 million tons, and factory inventory increased by 4.06 million tons to 172.26 million tons. Apparent demand decreased by 20.85 million tons to 189.94 million tons. In July, RMB loans were weak, affecting market sentiment [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract i2601 price fell to 775 yuan/ton, down 2.94%. Port spot prices also dropped. Australian shipments decreased, Brazilian shipments increased, and global shipments decreased. Iron - making production decreased by 0.34 million tons to 240.66 million tons, and the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.16%. Port and steel mill inventories increased [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The 2601 contract closed at 1214 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton or 2.49%, with a decrease of 24,908 lots in positions. The price of some coking coal in the spot market was adjusted. Coal mine resumption was slow, downstream procurement slowed, and demand from coke - steel enterprises was average [1]. - **Coke**: The 2601 contract closed at 1707 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton or 1.73%, with a decrease of 1034 lots in positions. The sixth round of price increases was fully implemented. Coke enterprises' production was normal, and steel mills' demand for replenishment was relatively active [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The main contract price was 6050 yuan/ton, down 1.08%, with a decrease of 21,026 lots in positions. The market price in each region was 5800 - 6050 yuan/ton. Supply was increasing, and demand was waiting for the main steel mill's tender price. The fundamental driving force was limited [1][3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The 09 contract price was 5744 yuan/ton, down 2.15%, with a decrease of 16,432 lots in positions. The market price in each region was about 5450 - 5500 yuan/ton. Supply was increasing, and demand was affected by downstream production control. The fundamental driving force was limited [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: The contract spreads of various varieties showed different changes. For example, the 10 - 1 spread of rebar was - 78.0, down 4.0; the 1 - 5 spread of iron ore was 22.0, up 1.0 [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of each variety also changed. For example, the 09 - contract basis of iron ore was 27.1, up 0.2; the 01 - contract basis of coke was - 85.0, up 8.3 [4]. - **Spot Price**: Spot prices of different varieties decreased. For example, the Shanghai rebar price was 3320.0, down 40.0; the PB powder price was 771.0, down 13.0 [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: The profit and spread of different varieties showed different trends. For example, the rebar futures profit was 13.8, up 15.0; the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 243.0, up 14.0 [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: Charts showed the closing prices of main contracts of various varieties from 2020 to 2025, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc [5][7][9]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts showed the basis of main contracts of various varieties over different time periods, such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc [18][19][20]. - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: Charts showed the spreads of inter - period contracts of various varieties over different time periods, such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc [26][28][30]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spread**: Charts showed the spreads of inter - variety contracts of various varieties from 2020 to 2025, including the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, etc [41][42][44]. - **Rebar Profit**: Charts showed the profit of rebar main contracts from 2020 to 2025, including futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [45][47][51]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: Current assistant director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and director of black research, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry. He has multiple honors and relevant qualification numbers [53]. - Zhang Xiaojin: Current director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with multiple honors and relevant qualification numbers [53]. - Liu Xi: Current black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data, with relevant qualification numbers [53]. - Zhang Chunjie: Current black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment and trade, and passed the CFA Level 2 exam, with relevant qualification numbers [54].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide specific industry investment ratings. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US July PPI significantly exceeded expectations, increasing inflation pressure, which affected the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and various asset prices [13][16]. - In the commodity market, different commodities showed different trends due to supply - demand relationships and external factors. For example, steel prices were under pressure due to inventory accumulation, and some agricultural products' prices were affected by production forecasts and export data [28][23]. 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US July PPI rose 3.3% year - on - year, causing the gold price to decline. The service cost increase was the main inflation driver, and the CPI still had upward potential. The market's expectation of a 50bp interest - rate cut in September decreased, and the short - term gold price was in a weak oscillation [13]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the callback risk as the short - term gold price is in a range - bound state [13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US July PPI significantly exceeded market expectations, strengthening inflation pressure and causing the US dollar index to rise. The market's interest - rate cut expectation declined, and the short - term risk appetite was moderately positive [16]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index is expected to rise in the short term [16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 128.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 3.2 billion yuan. The bond market was worried about the subsequent strength of the stock market. The stock market had a need for adjustment, and the bond market was difficult to have a trend - like market. - Investment advice: Allocation investors can gradually buy when the 10Y and 30Y interest rates are close to 1.75% and 2.0% respectively, while trading investors should be cautious in betting on rebounds [17]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The unexpected PPI and under - expected CPI indicated that US enterprises might bear more tariff costs, and core inflation was sticky. The market's interest - rate cut expectation cooled, but the probability of a September interest - rate cut was still high at 92%. - Investment advice: The risk of inflation rebound during the tariff transmission process may increase market volatility [19][20]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - CONAB and Abiove both raised Brazil's 24/25 soybean production forecasts. US soybean exports were better than expected, but China's procurement of US soybeans remained stagnant. - Investment advice: The futures price may be volatile and strong before China resumes purchasing US soybeans. Pay attention to the development of Sino - US relations [23]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - India's palm oil imports decreased in July. The vegetable oil market had a slight correction. - Investment advice: For the current vegetable oil market, it is recommended to buy on dips [25]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Japan launched an anti - dumping investigation on hot - dipped galvanized steel strips and sheets from China and South Korea. Steel prices oscillated weakly, and inventory accumulation accelerated. - Investment advice: The short - term market oscillates, and be vigilant against market fluctuations and callback risks [28][29]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The consumption of corn by starch sugar products decreased, while the consumption of corn starch increased. The terminal demand was still weak, and the开机 rate was expected to be weak. - Investment advice: The 11 and 01 contracts' short positions can be held, and pay attention to the 11 - 3 reverse spread opportunity [32][41]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Hogs) - The pig - breeding industry was in the stage of policy implementation. The short - term pig price was under pressure, and the long - term price was expected to rise. - Investment advice: Continuously pay attention to the opportunity of reverse spread [33][34]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - India planned to convert 4 - 5 million tons of sugar into ethanol in the 2025/26 season. Brazilian sugar exports improved, but the international sugar market was under pressure. - Investment advice: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price is expected to oscillate in the short term [38][39]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory in the northern ports decreased. The deep - processing consumption decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased slightly. - Investment advice: Hold the short positions of the 11 and 01 contracts and pay attention to the 11 - 3 reverse spread opportunity [40][41]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Alumina) - A large - scale alumina enterprise in Henan increased its daily output. The supply - demand surplus continued, and the futures price was under pressure. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see [43]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Multiple events affected the copper market, including the restart of a Chilean smelter and the sudden supply of copper concentrate from an Indonesian smelter. The US PPI data affected the copper price. - Investment advice: In the short term, it is recommended to buy on dips unilaterally and pay attention to the internal - external reverse spread strategy [46][47]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - A photovoltaic project started. The polysilicon market had problems such as inventory accumulation and slow improvement in fundamentals. - Investment advice: The price may oscillate between 45,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton in the short term. Consider short - term callback opportunities and long - term long positions when the price drops below 47,000 yuan/ton [48][49]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - An industrial silicon project was recognized. The supply and demand of industrial silicon were expected to be in a state of de - stocking in August. - Investment advice: In the short term, it is recommended to buy on dips, with the risk being the resumption of production by large factories [52][53]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The LME nickel inventory increased slightly. The raw material price started to weaken, and the nickel price was expected to oscillate. - Investment advice: Pay attention to short - term band opportunities and medium - term short - selling opportunities on rallies [54][56]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead spread was at a discount, and the social inventory increased. The demand in the peak season had not been realized. - Investment advice: Take profit on the previous long positions and pay attention to the internal - external positive spread opportunity [57][58]. 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The domestic zinc inventory increased significantly, and the zinc concentrate production of 29Metals decreased. The zinc price was affected by inventory and macro factors. - Investment advice: Manage positions unilaterally, pay attention to medium - term positive spread opportunities, and wait and see for internal - external operations [62]. 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - A lithium mine of CATL planned to stop production, which affected the supply of lithium carbonate. - Investment advice: The short - term price is expected to be strong. Pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [63][64]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The weekly commodity volume of LPG in China decreased, and the port inventory decreased. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the long - term positive spread operation opportunity [65][68]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price oscillated slightly. The supply - demand structure was balanced and loose, and the price was expected to oscillate in the short term. - Investment advice: The CEA price is expected to oscillate in the short term [69][70]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Natural Gas) - The US natural gas inventory increased. The demand was weak, and the gas price was expected to be bearish. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see [71][72]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - The PX price decline accelerated, affected by raw materials and supply - demand. - Investment advice: The price will oscillate and adjust in the short term [73][75]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The terminal weaving load increased slightly, and the PTA supply decreased due to low processing fees. - Investment advice: The price will oscillate and adjust in the short term [75][77]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The bottle - chip factory export quotes decreased, and the market was in a state of low - season demand. - Investment advice: The industry is in a state of production reduction, and the price follows the polyester raw materials [80]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong increased, and the supply was stable while the demand was positive. - Investment advice: The caustic soda futures price is expected to oscillate [81]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The imported wood pulp market was stable, and the price oscillated slightly. - Investment advice: The pulp price is expected to oscillate in the short term [82][84]. 3.2.24 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC price decreased, and the social inventory continued to accumulate. - Investment advice: The PVC price is expected to oscillate, supported by macro and coal - price factors [85]. 3.2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - The styrene production increased this week, and the price was affected by pure - benzene and supply - demand. - Investment advice: The styrene price is expected to oscillate, and pay attention to the cost - side changes caused by oil - price fluctuations [86][87]. 3.2.26 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The inventory of soda ash increased, and the market was weak. - Investment advice: Manage positions well as the market is volatile [88]. 3.2.27 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The glass price decreased, and the market was in a state of strong supply and weak demand. - Investment advice: Be cautious in unilateral operations and focus on the long - glass short - soda - ash spread strategy [89].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - China's financial data in July showed steady growth, and the A-share market strengthened with increased trading volume. The economy in July still had resilience, with positive policies and various economic indicators showing certain trends. For example, China's July exports increased, and the narrowing M2 - M1 gap indicated improved capital circulation efficiency. In the US, the July non - farm data was below expectations, but the service PMI improved, and inflation showed different trends [2]. - Attention should be paid to the impact of "reciprocal tariffs." The US has set new tariff standards, and the current tariff situation may affect goods with high external demand. Concerns about interest rate hikes and market liquidity shortages have increased, and the demand for Japanese government bond auctions has decreased [3]. - Different commodity sectors have different characteristics. The black and new energy metal sectors are sensitive to the domestic supply - side, the energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit from overseas inflation expectations, and the "anti - involution" space of some chemical products and the follow - up trends of "anti - involution" in the market are worthy of attention [4]. - The strategy for commodities and stock index futures is to allocate long positions in industrial products on dips [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - China's economic data in July: The official manufacturing PMI in July dropped to 49.3, the new order index dropped to 49.4, non - manufacturing remained in expansion, exports increased by 7.2% year - on - year, CPI was flat year - on - year, PPI's month - on - month decline narrowed, new social financing was 1.16 trillion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap narrowed. The US's July non - farm data was below expectations, but the service PMI improved, and inflation showed different trends. On August 13, the A - share market strengthened, and trading volume exceeded 2 trillion yuan [2]. Tariff and Interest Rate - The US has set new "reciprocal tariff" standards, and the current tariff situation is in a "stagnant" stage, which may affect external - demand - sensitive goods. After the July interest rate meeting, the Fed's attitude towards interest rate cuts is uncertain, and concerns about interest rate hikes and market liquidity shortages have increased, leading to a decrease in the demand for Japanese government bond auctions [3]. Commodity Analysis - Different commodity sectors: The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, the supply shortage in the non - ferrous sector persists, the energy sector's medium - term supply is expected to be relatively loose (OPEC + plans to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August), and the "anti - involution" space of some chemical products is worthy of attention. Agricultural products have limited short - term fluctuations. After the start of the "anti - involution" market in July, major varieties have retreated to some extent, and future trends will depend on the restoration of the economic fundamentals before the introduction of reciprocal tariffs in April and the implementation of "anti - involution" [4]. Strategy - The strategy for commodities and stock index futures is to allocate long positions in industrial products on dips [5]. Key News - China's financial data from January to July: RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan, deposits increased by 18.44 trillion yuan. At the end of July, M2 was 329.94 trillion yuan (up 8.8% year - on - year), M1 was 111.06 trillion yuan (up 5.6% year - on - year), M0 was 13.28 trillion yuan (up 11.8% year - on - year), and the net cash injection in the first seven months was 465.1 billion yuan. The social financing scale from January to July was 23.99 trillion yuan [6]. - Other news: The IEA predicts that the global oil market will face a record supply surplus next year. Trump will meet with Putin to discuss the Ukraine crisis. The A - share market strengthened on August 13, and the trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets exceeded 2 trillion yuan [2][4][6].

Core Viewpoint - The monitoring of market prices for 50 important production materials in China shows a mixed trend, with 18 products experiencing price increases, 29 seeing declines, and 3 remaining stable in early August 2025 compared to late July 2025 [2]. Group 1: Price Changes in Major Categories - In the black metal category, prices for rebar and wire rod decreased by 1.1% and 1.3% respectively, while seamless steel pipes saw a slight increase of 0.1% [4]. - The non-ferrous metals category experienced declines in prices for electrolytic copper, aluminum ingots, lead ingots, and zinc ingots, with decreases ranging from 0.5% to 1.7% [4]. - Chemical products showed a mixed performance, with sulfuric acid and methanol prices increasing by 1.7% and 0.6% respectively, while other products like styrene and polyvinyl chloride saw significant declines [4]. Group 2: Energy and Coal Prices - In the petroleum and natural gas sector, liquefied natural gas (LNG) and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) prices fell by 2.2% and 1.7% respectively, while gasoline prices remained relatively stable [4]. - Coal prices showed an upward trend, with prices for various types of coal, including anthracite and coking coal, increasing by 2.5% to 9.6% [4]. Group 3: Agricultural and Forestry Products - Agricultural products such as corn, cotton, and live pigs experienced price declines, with cotton prices dropping by 3.5% and corn by 0.5% [5]. - Conversely, soybean meal prices increased by 1.3%, indicating some resilience in the agricultural sector [5]. - In forestry products, natural rubber and paper pulp prices fell, while corrugated paper prices increased by 1.7% [5]. Group 4: Monitoring Methodology - The price monitoring encompasses 9 major categories and 50 products, with data collected from over 2,000 wholesalers and dealers across 31 provinces [8][9]. - The methodology includes on-site price collection, telephone inquiries, and electronic communications to ensure comprehensive data gathering [9]. Group 5: Price Fluctuation Statistics - The statistics on price fluctuations indicate that the number of products with rising prices is significantly lower than those with declining prices, reflecting a broader trend of price reductions in the monitored categories [10].

Group 1 - The concept of "involution" refers to a process where internal complexity increases under external constraints, leading to ineffective competition and diminishing returns on effort [1][8][14] - The "anti-involution" policy aims to address excessive competition and improve resource allocation efficiency, particularly in industries like steel and agriculture, where profit margins have been severely compressed [3][14][21] - The current economic structure in China shows a mismatch between supply and demand, with overcapacity in traditional industries and insufficient consumer demand, necessitating a shift towards high-quality development [20][25][30] Group 2 - The central government has established a comprehensive policy framework to combat "involution," which includes legal reforms, industry regulations, and measures to enhance labor rights [2][31][34] - Specific industries such as non-ferrous metals, photovoltaics, and automobiles are experiencing heightened scrutiny and regulatory measures to curb "involution" and promote sustainable growth [2][36][38] - The automotive industry is particularly affected by price wars, which threaten profitability and product quality, prompting calls for adherence to fair competition principles [43] Group 3 - The "anti-involution" measures are expected to stabilize industrial product prices and improve industry concentration, as seen in previous supply-side reforms that led to significant profit recovery in sectors like steel [3][4][14] - The photovoltaic industry faces challenges from low-cost competition, which has led to a decline in profit margins and necessitates a focus on innovation and quality improvement [38][42] - The non-ferrous metals sector is undergoing adjustments to address overcapacity and ensure sustainable development, with new regulations aimed at balancing supply and demand [36][37] Group 4 - Future policies will focus on creating a unified national market and optimizing competition order, with an emphasis on preventing price dumping and promoting industry self-regulation [4][31] - The relationship between "anti-involution" and the establishment of a unified market is crucial for addressing market distortions and fostering a fair competitive environment [4][31] - The ongoing adjustments in various industries highlight the need for a coordinated approach to manage capacity and enhance overall market efficiency [2][36][38]

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Analysis - In July, Guangdong's CPI decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points compared to June; month-on-month, it shifted from a decrease of 0.2% in June to an increase of 0.5% [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 0.4% year-on-year, with the growth rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points from June [1] - Food prices fell by 1.1% year-on-year, contributing approximately 0.21 percentage points to the CPI decline, while non-food prices decreased by 0.1%, impacting the CPI by about 0.07 percentage points [2] Group 2: Industrial Producer Price Index (PPI) Analysis - The PPI in Guangdong decreased by 2.0% year-on-year in July, with the decline widening by 0.2 percentage points compared to June; month-on-month, it fell by 0.2%, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points [1][4] - The average PPI for January to July showed a decrease of 1.4%, while the Industrial Producer Purchase Price Index (IPI) fell by 2.8% [1] - In the PPI survey, 38 major industries showed 8 increases, 29 decreases, and 1 stable, with an industry increase rate of 21.1%, down by 7.8 percentage points from June [4][5] Group 3: Sector-Specific Price Movements - Significant price changes were noted in various sectors, with educational and sports equipment manufacturing prices rising by 12.5%, while black metal mining and related industries saw declines of 18.0% and 12.0%, respectively [4] - The automotive manufacturing sector experienced a 1.6% price drop, influenced by the decline in fuel vehicle prices due to competition from the new energy vehicle market [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - Steel prices are oscillating with improved trading volume. The policy may enter a vacuum period, and the impact of the Tangshan production - restriction policy is expected to be limited. Focus on the possible mismatch in the low - inventory environment. Steel prices are currently stable, with support from the electric - arc furnace valley - electricity cost and upward elasticity depending on market sentiment and demand strength [3]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, macro policies are mainly positive, and prices are on the strong side. Although the anti - involution policy expectation is uncertain, previous trading logic continues to support prices. The supply is slightly increasing, and inventory is being depleted, but the high inventory still poses a challenge [4]. - For coking coal and coke, the impact of over - production inspection is ongoing, and the market is still betting on "anti - involution". The sixth round of coke price increase is yet to be confirmed. The coking coal supply is tightened, but the price faces upward pressure. The market is volatile, and light - position participation is recommended, with key time points to watch [6]. - For iron ore, the anti - involution sentiment is rising again. The direction of the black sector depends on coking coal. Iron ore supply is expected to increase, but the "anti - involution" policy may have a trend - setting impact. The lower support for iron ore is still effective, and there may be an upward opportunity after adjustment [6]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Far - month Contracts (August 11)**: RB2601 closed at 3319 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan (1.10%); HC2601 at 3461 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan (1.20%); I2601 at 789 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan (1.94%); J2601 at 1759.5 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan (1.73%); JM2605 at 1285 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan (2.39%) [1]. - **Near - month Contracts (August 11)**: RB2510 closed at 3250 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan (1.09%); HC2510 at 3465 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan (1.29%); I2509 at 796.5 yuan/ton, up 6.5 yuan (0.82%); J2509 at 1681 yuan/ton, up 32.5 yuan (1.97%); JM2601 at 1256 yuan/ton, up 36.5 yuan (2.99%) [1]. - **Spread and Basis**: On August 11, RB2510 - 2601 spread was - 69 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; HC2510 - 2601 spread was 4 yuan, up 5 yuan. The basis for HC, RB, I, J, and JM had different values and changes [1]. Steel Industry - **Price and Trading Volume**: On Monday, futures prices rebounded slightly, and spot prices followed suit. The trading volume of building materials trade increased to over 120,000 tons, and speculative demand improved [3]. - **Macro and Policy**: Domestic policies may enter a vacuum period. The Tangshan production - restriction policy is mild, and its overall impact on production is expected to be limited [3]. - **Industry Reality**: Last week, hot - rolled coil supply and demand were both weak, while building materials showed strong supply and demand. Steel exports are still at a high level, but the marginal weakening is observed [3]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Unilaterally, focus on the electric - arc furnace valley - electricity cost support; for arbitrage, do long on the 01 hot - rolled coil - rebar spread; there are partial profit - taking opportunities for basis, and conduct rolling operations in the spot - futures market [5]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Market Situation**: Macro policies are positive, and demand - side factors support prices. The anti - involution policy has an impact on supply and cost. The supply is slightly increasing, and inventory is being depleted, but high inventory remains a problem [4]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Hold long positions in the 01 contract [5]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Situation**: The sixth - round coke price increase is yet to be confirmed. Coking coal supply is tightened due to production inspection and natural factors. The market is betting on "anti - involution", but the price faces upward pressure as downstream acceptance of high - priced resources decreases [6]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude [6]. Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: The black sector is oscillating, and the direction depends on coking coal. Iron ore supply is expected to increase, but the "anti - involution" policy may have a significant impact. The lower support for iron ore is effective, and there may be an upward opportunity after adjustment [6]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Consider doing long on the 9 - 1 spread as it has shrunk to a historically low level [6].

8月12日，国内期市黑色金属板块全线飘红。其中，铁矿石期货主力合约开盘报790.0元/吨，今日盘中 高位震荡运行；截至午间收盘，铁矿石主力最高触及801.5元，下方探低787.5元，涨幅达2.17%。 中财期货分析称，供给端，铁矿石发运、到港均有所上升，预计后续铁矿石发运、到港将有所回升，供 应端整体偏弱。需求端，钢厂按需补库，日均铁水产量持续高位，钢厂在利润较好的情况下生产积极性 整体偏强，需求端整体偏强。库存端，台风影响陆续结束，预计疏港量将有所回落，港口库存将小幅累 库。现阶段铁矿石基本面现实偏强，需重点关注钢厂的限产节奏与力度，预计铁矿石价格震荡运行。 建信期货表示，现阶段黑色板块盘面价格走势主要受到宏观情绪的影响，反内卷相关品种炒作情绪依然 存在，但铁矿受到的影响几乎可以忽略不计，价格已逐步回归基本面，考虑到钢厂维持高产为矿价提供 支撑，预计短期矿价将呈现高位盘整运行走势。 目前来看，铁矿石行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于铁矿石后市行情将如何运行，相关机构 观点汇总如下： 华联期货指出，本期外矿发运量小幅回落，全球铁矿发运总量环比减少15.1万吨至3046.7万吨，同时， 外矿到港量也有所回 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides trend forecasts for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs, with investment advice such as "oscillating repeatedly," "broadly oscillating," and "bullishly oscillating" [5][10][14]. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Trend Forecast**: Oscillating repeatedly [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's futures closing price was 796.5 yuan/ton, up 6.5 yuan or 0.82% from the previous day; the previous day's position was 271,889 lots, a decrease of 36,188 lots; spot prices of imported and domestic ores all increased [6]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 9, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, the national consumer price index was flat year-on-year in July [6]. - **Trend Intensity**: -1 [6]. Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coils - **Trend Forecast**: Broadly oscillating due to sector sentiment resonance [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's futures closing prices of RB2510 and HC2510 were 3,250 yuan/ton and 3,465 yuan/ton, up 1.09% and 1.29% respectively; spot prices in various regions showed different degrees of increase or remained unchanged [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In late July 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises decreased by 5.6% month-on-month; in July, automobile production and sales decreased month-on-month but increased year-on-year; in late July, the average daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel decreased by 7.4% month-on-month, pig iron decreased by 4.5% month-on-month, and steel increased by 0.5% month-on-month; according to the weekly data of Steel Union on August 7, the output of rebar increased by 10.12 tons, hot-rolled coils decreased by 7.9 tons, and the total inventory of the five major varieties increased by 23.47 tons [11][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 for both rebar and hot-rolled coils [12]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Trend Forecast**: Broadly oscillating [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's futures closing prices of ferrosilicon 2509 and 2510 were 5,830 yuan/ton and 5,820 yuan/ton respectively; the previous day's futures closing prices of silicomanganese 2509 and 2510 were 6,100 yuan/ton and 6,112 yuan/ton respectively; spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia were 5,450 yuan/ton and 5,800 yuan/ton respectively [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 8, the price of 72 ferrosilicon in Qinghai decreased by 100 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 ferrosilicon in Gansu increased by 50 yuan/ton; the price of 6517 silicomanganese in the north was 5,850 - 5,950 yuan/ton, and in the south was 5,900 - 6,000 yuan/ton; as of August 8, the total manganese ore inventory increased by 8.83 tons month-on-month [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [16]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Trend Forecast**: Bullishly oscillating [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's futures closing prices of JM2509 and J2509 were 1,106.5 yuan/ton and 1,681 yuan/ton, up 3.5% and 1.7% respectively; most spot prices remained unchanged [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 9, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, the national consumer price index was flat year-on-year in July [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal [19]. Logs - **Trend Forecast**: Oscillating repeatedly [20]. - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of the 2509, 2511, and 2601 contracts showed different degrees of increase or decrease; most spot prices remained unchanged [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 9, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, the national consumer price index was flat year-on-year in July [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 [23].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bullish/bearish bias, indicating a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★☆★ [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆ (White stars represent a relatively balanced short-term bullish/bearish trend, with poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting a wait-and-see approach) [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market shows mixed trends with rising thread demand and production but falling hot-rolled coil demand and production, while inventory accumulates in both. The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The coke and coking coal markets are affected by "anti-involution" policies with increased short-term volatility and limited downside space. The silicomanganese and ferrosilicon markets also follow the "anti-involution" policy expectations and face pressure near previous highs [2][3][4] By Commodity Type Steel - Thread's apparent demand and production increased, inventory continued to accumulate; hot-rolled coil's apparent demand dropped significantly, production declined, and inventory also continued to accumulate. Iron water production declined slightly but remained high. Downstream industries showed weak domestic demand, while steel exports remained relatively high. Market sentiment was supported by factors such as narrowed PPI decline and marginal relaxation of the Beijing property market [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures price rose slightly, and the basis fluctuated recently. Global shipments decreased slightly this period, with a large drop in Australian shipments and increases in Brazilian and non-mainstream country shipments. Domestic arrivals decreased this period but were slightly higher than last year. Terminal demand was weak, and blast furnace iron water decreased slightly. Steel mills had high profit ratios and limited motivation for active production cuts. The market was expected to fluctuate at a high level [3] Coke - Coke prices fluctuated upward. The sixth round of price increases improved profits, and daily production increased slightly. Inventory continued to decline, and traders had good purchasing intentions. The carbon element supply was abundant, and downstream iron water remained at a high level during the off-season. The price was greatly affected by "anti-involution" policy expectations, with increased short-term volatility and limited downside space [4] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices fluctuated upward. Market sentiment was high regarding coal overproduction inspections. Mine production decreased, the spot auction market improved, and terminal inventory remained flat. Total inventory decreased, and production-side inventory continued to decline significantly. The price was greatly affected by "anti-involution" policy expectations, with increased short-term volatility and limited downside space [6] Silicomanganese - Silicomanganese prices rose slightly. Iron water production remained above 240. Weekly production continued to increase but at a slower rate than expected, providing some support to the price. Manganese ore prices rose slightly this week, and it was expected to accumulate inventory in the second half of the year. In July, supply exceeded demand, and on-balance-sheet inventory continued to decline. The price was greatly affected by "anti-involution" policy expectations, and pressure near previous highs should be noted [7] Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices rose slightly. Iron water production decreased slightly but remained above 240. Export demand remained at around 30,000 tons with a marginal impact. Metal magnesium production decreased slightly, and secondary demand declined marginally. Supply increased significantly, market trading was average, and on-balance-sheet inventory increased slightly. The price was greatly affected by "anti-involution" policy expectations, and pressure near previous highs should be noted [8]