1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market, including rebar and hot - rolled coils, shows signs of weak consolidation. Rebar inventories have decreased, and the implementation of new policy financial tools may support market sentiment. However, the short - term rebar futures market is expected to remain weak [1]. - The iron ore market is expected to be volatile. Although iron ore prices have declined, iron ore demand, as indicated by increasing iron - water production, is rising, while supply shows mixed trends [1]. - The coking coal and coke markets are likely to experience wide - range fluctuations. The coking coal market is affected by pre - holiday production adjustments and downstream inventory replenishment, and the coke market is influenced by cost increases and demand changes [1]. - The manganese silicon and silicon iron markets are expected to be weakly volatile. Both markets face challenges such as high supply, limited demand, and increasing production costs [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures contract 2601 closed at 3097 yuan/ton, down 0.0.55% from the previous trading day, with a decrease in positions. Spot prices were stable, and the national building materials inventory decreased by 5.1% week - on - week. The hot - rolled coil inventory also declined. The market is expected to be weakly consolidated [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The main iron ore futures contract i2601 closed at 784 yuan/ton, down 0.76%. Australian shipments increased slightly, Brazilian shipments decreased steadily, and other countries' shipments increased. Iron - water production rose, and the market is expected to be volatile [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures contract 2601 closed at 1154 yuan/ton, down 3.55%. Some coal mines have scheduled holiday maintenance, and downstream inventory replenishment is nearing completion. The market is expected to fluctuate widely [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures contract 2601 closed at 1647 yuan/ton, down 2.69%. Some steel mills have accepted the first round of coke price increases. Coke supply may decrease due to cost pressure, and the market is expected to fluctuate widely [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon futures price weakened, closing at 5820 yuan/ton, down 0.78%. Supply remains relatively high, demand is limited, and production costs are increasing. The market is expected to be weakly volatile [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: The silicon iron futures price weakened, closing at 5610 yuan/ton, down 1.23%. Supply is high, demand is limited, and production costs are rising. The market is expected to be weakly volatile [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads**: The spreads of various contracts, such as 1 - 5 months and 5 - 10 months for different commodities, showed different changes. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of rebar was - 58.0, down 1.0 [3]. - **Basis**: The basis of different contracts also changed. For instance, the basis of the 01 rebar contract was 143.0, down 3.0 [3]. - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices of different commodities in different regions changed. For example, the Shanghai spot price of rebar was 3240.0, down 10.0 [3]. - **Profits and Price Ratios**: The report also monitored profits (such as rebar's盘面利润, long - process profit, and short - process profit) and price ratios (such as the coil - rebar ratio, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc.) [3]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report presented the historical closing prices of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron from 2020 to 2025 [5][7][8][10][14]. - **Main Contract Basis**: The historical basis of the main contracts of various commodities was shown, including rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron [16][18][21][23]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The historical spreads of different inter - period contracts (such as 10 - 01, 01 - 05, 05 - 09) of various commodities were presented [25][28][29][30][31][33][34][35][37][39]. - **Inter - commodity Contract Spreads**: The historical spreads of different inter - commodity contracts (such as the coil - rebar ratio, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc.) were shown [41][42][43][44]. - **Rebar Profits**: The historical profits of rebar (盘面利润, long - process profit, and short - process profit) from 2020 to 2025 were presented [46][47][49]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - The black research team of Everbright Futures includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with their own professional backgrounds and qualifications [51][52].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate at a high level due to repeated expectations [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to fluctuate weakly as raw material trends weaken [2][7][8]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to fluctuate weakly due to sector sentiment resonance [2][11]. - Coke and coking coal are expected to have wide - range fluctuations with repeated expectations [2][14][15]. - Logs are expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][17]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of iron ore closed at 784.0 yuan/ton, down 6.0 yuan or 0.76%. The open interest decreased by 34,937 lots. Spot prices of imported and some domestic ores declined slightly. The basis and inter - contract spreads showed certain changes [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: From January to August, the total profit of large - scale industrial enterprises in China was 4692.97 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.9% [4]. - **Trend Strength**: The trend strength of iron ore is 1 [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of RB2601 and HC2601 were 3097 yuan/ton and 3289 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan (-1.34%) and 41 yuan (-1.23%) respectively. Open interest and trading volume data are provided, and spot prices in different regions decreased slightly [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Multiple industry data were released, including profit data of large - scale industrial enterprises, steel production, inventory, and import - export data. For example, from January to August, the cumulative export of steel was 7749.0 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.0% [9][10]. - **Trend Strength**: The trend strength of rebar and hot - rolled coil is - 1 [10]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese contracts decreased. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia declined. Various spreads such as basis, inter - contract spreads, and cross - product spreads are provided [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Price information of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions and production data in some areas are provided [11]. - **Trend Strength**: The trend strength of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is - 1 [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of JM2601 and J2601 were 1154 yuan/ton and 1647 yuan/ton, down 42.5 yuan (-3.6%) and 45.5 yuan (-2.7%) respectively. Spot prices of coking coal and coke were mostly stable, and basis and inter - contract spreads changed [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The China Coking Industry Association stated that it has never issued or authorized any notices or initiatives regarding "mandatory production cuts" or "joint price increases" [16]. - **Trend Strength**: The trend strength of coke and coking coal is 0 [16]. Logs - **Fundamentals**: Closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different log contracts showed different degrees of change. Spot - futures spreads and inter - contract spreads also changed [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% [20]. - **Trend Strength**: The trend strength of logs is 0 [20].

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting analyzes the market trends and strategic outlook for the black metal industry in China from 2025 to 2031 [1] Price Trends - As of mid-September 2025, the market price for hot-rolled ordinary plates (4.75—11.5mm, Q235) is 3428.8 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.05% and a month-on-month increase of 0.6% [1] - The highest recorded price in the past five years for the same product was 5897.8 yuan per ton in mid-September 2021 [1] Historical Price Data - The report includes a statistical chart detailing the price fluctuations of hot-rolled ordinary plates (4.75—11.5mm, Q235) from 2019 to mid-September 2025 [1]

Core Insights - The market price of angle steel (5) in mid-September 2025 is reported at 3481 CNY per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.19% and a month-on-month increase of 0.27% [1] - The highest recorded price in the past five years for angle steel (5) was 5666.1 CNY per ton in mid-September 2021 [1] Price Trends - The price of angle steel (5) has shown a consistent upward trend, with a notable increase in the current year compared to the previous year [1] - Historical data indicates significant fluctuations in the price of angle steel (5) from 2019 to 2025, with the peak occurring in 2021 [1]

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting analyzes the market trends and strategic outlook for the black metal industry in China from 2025 to 2031 [1] Price Trends - As of mid-September 2025, the market price for ordinary medium plates (20mm, Q235) is 3512.9 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.1% and a month-on-month increase of 0.33% [1] - The highest recorded price for the same period in the past five years was 5736.5 yuan per ton in mid-September 2021 [1]

Report Investment Ratings - Thread: ☆☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ★★★ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆★ [1] Core Views - The steel market is in a volatile pattern, with demand expectations being pessimistic and the market sentiment cautious [1] - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate at a high level [2] - Coke and coking coal prices are relatively firm due to sufficient carbon supply, high downstream hot metal levels, and pre - National Day replenishment sentiment [3][5] - Silicomanganese and ferrosilicon prices have an upward drive, and it is recommended to go long on dips under the "anti - involution" background [6][7] Summary by Commodity Steel - Today's steel futures fluctuated mainly. Thread demand continued to recover, production stabilized, and inventory declined. Hot - rolled coil demand and production slightly decreased, and inventory continued to accumulate slightly [1] - Iron - water production remained high, and the negative feedback pressure in the industrial chain eased, but poor steel profits restricted further production resumption space [1] - Downstream demand was weak, with real - estate investment decline expanding, and infrastructure and manufacturing growth slowing down. Steel exports remained high [1] Iron Ore - The supply side was relatively strong, with overseas shipments being relatively high and non - mainstream shipments increasing significantly recently. Domestic arrivals rebounded to a relatively high level this year, and port inventory fluctuated mainly [2] - The demand side was supported by high short - term iron - water production. Steel mills' imported ore inventory increased significantly, and there was still a certain pre - holiday replenishment demand [2] - The market speculative sentiment was volatile due to the Fed's interest - rate cut and pending domestic policies [2] Coke - The intraday price fluctuated upward. The first round of coke price increases was partially implemented. Coke production decreased slightly, and overall inventory increased [3] - The supply of carbon elements was sufficient, and high downstream hot - metal levels supported the price. The pre - National Day replenishment sentiment also contributed to the relatively firm price [3] Coking Coal - The intraday price was in a strong - side fluctuation. Mongolian coal customs clearance was suspended during the National Day holiday and resumed on October 8th [5] - Coking coal mine production increased slightly. Pre - National Day replenishment sentiment was strong, with more spot auction transactions and improved prices [5] - Total coking coal inventory increased month - on - month, and production - end inventory decreased slightly. The possibility of further significant capacity release was low under the over - production inspection background [5] Silicomanganese - The intraday price fluctuated upward. The "Three - Carbon" concept provided an upward drive [6] - Demand was supported by high iron - water production. Weekly production increased, and inventory did not accumulate. Manganese ore prices were slightly higher, and inventory accumulation was slow [6] Ferrosilicon - The intraday price fluctuated upward. The "Three - Carbon" concept drove the price up [7] - Total demand was acceptable, with high iron - water production and stable export demand. Metal magnesium production decreased slightly [7] - Supply recovered to a high level, market spot and futures demand was good, and inventory decreased slightly [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black metal sector maintained a volatile trend today, with general spot steel transactions and ongoing pre - holiday restocking. The overall output of the five major steel products increased this week, but hot - rolled production decreased. Affected by supply pressure, the apparent demand for hot - rolled weakened, while the demand for rebar continued to recover. With the cooling weather, the downstream demand improved, leading to an overall increase in the apparent demand of the five major steel products. Steel inventories entered an inflection point, with the five major steel products starting to destock and the inventory accumulation rate of hot - rolled slowing down. It is expected that the molten iron output will remain high this week. The approaching typhoon in South China and the upcoming double festivals may affect some construction site demands. However, with the cooling weather, steel demand may recover to some extent after the festivals. Since mid - September, there have been many market rumors, causing the futures market to rise rapidly, but currently, there is a lack of further upward drivers. Pre - holiday long - position funds may leave the market one after another. Recently, rebar production has resumed, so there is still pressure on steel prices, and there may be a risk of decline about a week after the festivals. If the downstream demand recovers beyond expectations in October, steel prices may rise further. In addition, the content of the "15th Five - Year Plan" will also affect market fluctuations. Subsequently, it is necessary to pay attention to the peak - season demand, coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [7] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Information - Spot prices: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar is 3260 yuan (+10), Beijing Jingye rebar is 3190 yuan (-), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil is 3400 yuan (-), and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil is 3330 yuan (-) [6] Market Judgement - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Maintain a volatile trend - Arbitrage: It is recommended to continue holding the 1 - 5 positive spread and continue holding the short position of the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [8] - **Important Information** - On September 25, the China Index Academy monitored that the total bond financing of the real estate industry in August 2025 was 55.31 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 4.3%. From May to July, the monthly financing amount showed an increasing trend, but in August, the monthly financing amount decreased year - on - year. The average bond financing interest rate was 2.51%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.01 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 percentage points [8] - In August 2025, the crude steel output of 70 countries/regions included in the World Steel Association statistics was 145.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3% [10] Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including those related to rebar and hot - rolled coil prices, basis, spreads, contract spreads, and profit margins, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind. These charts cover different contract periods (01, 05, 10) and different types of profit margins (disk profit, cash profit, etc.) [16][18][20]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term price of rebar is expected to be in a narrow - range consolidation as there is no obvious upward driving force, but the downward space is also limited [1]. - The iron ore price is expected to show a volatile trend due to the interweaving of long and short factors [1]. - The coking coal and coke prices are expected to have a wide - range volatile operation in the short term [1]. - The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices are expected to follow the overall fluctuation of the black commodities in the short term, with limited fundamental driving forces [1][3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views Steel - The rebar futures contract 2601 closed at 3164 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton (0.29%) from the previous trading day, with an increase of 0.08 million lots in positions. The spot price was stable with a slight increase, and the trading volume increased slightly. The national building materials production, social inventory, factory inventory, and apparent demand all changed, showing weak data [1]. Iron Ore - The iron ore futures main contract i2601 closed at 803.5 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.12%) from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 200,000 lots and a reduction of 0.8 million lots in positions. The supply of iron ore from Australia and Brazil decreased, while the demand (hot metal production) increased, and the steel mill profitability declined [1]. Coking Coal - The coking coal futures contract 2601 closed at 1224.5 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 7155 lots in positions. The spot price of some coking coal varieties changed. The supply side had normal production in most mines, and the demand was good. The iron - making enterprises purchased as needed, and the market was mostly in a wait - and - see state [1]. Coke - The coke futures contract 2601 closed at 1730 yuan/ton, up 12.5 yuan/ton (0.73%), with an increase of 113 lots in positions. The spot price of port coke increased. The cost of coking enterprises increased, and the downstream replenishment demand was released as the holidays approached, but the overall replenishment was expected to be limited [1]. Manganese Silicon - The manganese silicon futures price strengthened in a volatile manner, with the main contract closing at 5916 yuan/ton, up 0.44% month - on - month, and the positions decreased by 1401 lots to 333,800 lots. The market price in some regions changed. The steel procurement was ongoing, and the production was expected to increase. The cost was relatively stable [1]. Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon futures price strengthened in a volatile manner, with the main contract closing at 5742 yuan/ton, up 0.88% month - on - month, and the positions increased by 621 lots to 188,000 lots. The market price in some regions changed. Some production enterprises resumed production, and the downstream steel mills' inventory days increased. The cost was supported to some extent [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on contract spreads, basis, spot prices, profits, and cross - variety spreads of various black commodities, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal, coke, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [2]. 3. Chart Analysis 3.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing prices of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [5][7][8][10][14]. 3.2 Main Contract Basis - The report shows the basis data of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon for different years and contracts [16][18][21][23]. 3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides the spread data of different contracts (such as 1 - 5 months, 5 - 9 months) of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [25][28][29][30][31][33][34][35][37][39]. 3.4 Cross - variety Contract Spreads - The report shows the spreads of cross - variety contracts, including the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, the ratio of rebar to coke, etc. from 2020 to 2025 [41][42][43][44]. 3.5 Rebar Profits - The report presents the profit data of rebar, including the disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit from 2020 to 2025 [46][47][49][50]. 4. Black Research Team Members Introduction - The report introduces the members of the black research team, including their positions, work experience, and professional qualifications [53][54].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Steel**: The spot and futures prices of steel have corrected, with reduced spot trading volume and a still weak market sentiment. Macro - level, US interest rate cuts are beneficial for mid - cycle liquidity and risk appetite, and the follow - up of domestic policies needs to be observed. Industry - level, steel demand in the off - season is not strong, and the improvement in building materials' apparent demand is not significant. There is cost support due to high hot metal production and pre - National Day furnace charge restocking, but high production of building materials poses a potential risk. Futures trading suggests waiting and seeing, and for basis - stage buying hedging positions, consider rolling profit - taking before the National Day according to spot exposure [3]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Market sentiment has improved, but there are concerns in the fundamentals. The industry's average profit has been restored, and supply continues to increase. With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October", terminal demand needs verification, and the risk of a decline in hot metal and electric furnace start - up accumulates, which may impact demand. Current industry inventories are still high, and there is pressure to reduce inventories [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal spot prices are strong. Before the National Day, due to restocking, coking coal auction transactions are good, and prices mostly rise. Futures are oscillating. Although there are positive macro - news, the market shows a "sell - on - news" sign. From an industry perspective, the cost support is verified, but due to the lack of obvious improvement in terminal demand, the upward driving force is limited. It is recommended to gradually liquidate long positions before the National Day and use selling hedging when prices rise [3]. - **Iron Ore**: There are many rumors in the market during the iron ore conference week. Steel mills' hot metal production has slightly increased, and the profit rate has declined. Steel mills' restocking for the National Day is almost over. Before the National Day, factors such as restricted circulation of mineral resources and restocking support iron ore prices, but the upside depends on steel demand. The long - term view is to buy on dips [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Futures Market - **Contract Closing Prices**: On September 23, for far - month contracts, RB2605 closed at 3212 yuan/ton (- 33 yuan, - 1.02%), HC2605 at 3351 yuan/ton (- 42 yuan, - 1.24%), etc.; for near - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3155 yuan/ton (- 32 yuan, - 1.00%), HC2601 at 3340 yuan/ton (- 45 yuan, - 1.33%) [1]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: On September 23, the spread between RB2601 and RB2605 was - 57 yuan/ton (+ 2 yuan), the spread between HC2601 and HC2605 was - 11 yuan/ton (- 3 yuan), etc. The coil - to - rebar spread was 185 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan), the rebar - to - ore ratio was 3.93 (- 0.01), etc. [1]. Spot Market - **Prices**: On September 23, Shanghai rebar was 3250 yuan/ton (- 40 yuan), Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3370 yuan/ton (- 70 yuan), etc. [1]. - **Basis**: On September 23, the basis of HC main contract was 30 yuan/ton (- 30 yuan), the basis of RB main contract was 95 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan), etc. [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - For the stock index, after continuous previous rises, high - level hot sectors like AI have shown divergence recently. There is a short - term adjustment pressure on the index due to capital rotation and shrinking trading volume. However, in the long - term, with policy support for the capital market remaining unchanged, the strategy is mainly to go long on dips [4]. - Regarding national debt, considering the slowdown of economic data in August and the expected weakening of the export pull, along with the central bank's maintenance of loose funds, interest rates are expected to decline. The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover in the short term, but the stock - bond seesaw effect needs attention [8]. - For precious metals, after the September interest - rate cut, the dovish stance of the Fed's key figures makes the market expect further interest - rate cuts. It is recommended to go long on dips [9]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, most metals are affected by the Fed's interest - rate policy. Although short - term sentiment may be affected, with the approach of the National Day holiday, downstream demand is expected to increase, providing support for metal prices. Different metals have different supply - demand situations, and corresponding strategies are formulated accordingly [13][15][17][19][20][22][24][26][28][30]. - In the black building materials sector, the steel market is affected by factors such as weak demand and narrowing steel mill profits, and there is a risk of price decline. The iron ore market is expected to oscillate, and the glass and soda ash markets are expected to continue to oscillate and sort out. The manganese - silicon and silicon - iron markets may have a short - term downward callback risk but may have multi - allocation value in the future. Industrial silicon and polysilicon markets are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to supply - demand changes and policy impacts [34][36][37][40][42][43][47][49]. - In the energy and chemical sector, different products have different supply - demand and price trends. For example, rubber is recommended to be long - term bullish and short - term neutral or slightly bullish; crude oil is recommended to be long - term multi - allocated; methanol and urea are recommended to be observed; pure benzene and styrene are recommended to go long on dips; PVC and ethylene glycol are recommended to go short on rallies; PTA and p - xylene are recommended to be observed [53][56][58][60][62][64][66][69][71]. - In the agricultural products sector, the pig price is expected to be stable or decline, and it is recommended to go short on the near - month contract and do reverse arbitrage. The egg price is expected to be stable, and it is recommended to observe in the short term and pay attention to buying the far - month contract after a decline. The soybean meal market is expected to oscillate in a range, and it is recommended to sell on rallies. The oil market is expected to be oscillatory and bullish in the medium - term, and it is recommended to buy after a decline and stabilization. The sugar market is expected to be bearish in the long - term but may have a short - term rebound. The cotton market is recommended to be observed in the short term [79][81][84][86][88][91]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - financial - **Stock Index** - **Market Information**: The arrival of the central delegation in Xinjiang, the new high of spot gold prices, the continuous capital inflow of KWEB, and the suspension of trading of Tianpu Co., Ltd. for verification [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH in different periods are provided [3]. - **Strategy**: Short - term adjustment pressure exists, but long - term long - on - dips strategy is recommended [4]. - **National Debt** - **Market Information**: The decline of main contracts on Tuesday, the release of August's power consumption data, and the reduction of the US current - account deficit [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 2761 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 109 billion yuan [6][7]. - **Strategy**: Interest rates are expected to decline, and the bond market is expected to oscillate and recover in the short term [8]. - **Precious Metals** - **Market Information**: The price changes of domestic and foreign gold and silver, the dovish stance of the Fed's key figures [9]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on dips [9]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper** - **Market Information**: The slight decline of LME copper, the reduction of LME and SHFE copper inventories, and the narrowing of the refined - scrap price difference [11]. - **Strategy**: The short - term price may oscillate and rise [13]. - **Aluminum** - **Market Information**: The decline of LME aluminum, the reduction of SHFE aluminum positions and inventories, and the change of the spot - futures basis [14]. - **Strategy**: The short - term price may repair upwards [15]. - **Zinc** - **Market Information**: The decline of the zinc index, the change of positions and inventories, and the calculation of the import profit and loss [16]. - **Strategy**: The short - term price is expected to be weak [17]. - **Lead** - **Market Information**: The decline of the lead index, the change of positions and inventories, and the calculation of the import profit and loss [18]. - **Strategy**: The short - term price is expected to be strong [19]. - **Nickel** - **Market Information**: The oscillatory operation of nickel prices, the stable cost of nickel ore and nickel iron, and the increase of MHP prices [20]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on dips in the long - term, and the short - term price is expected to operate within a certain range [20]. - **Tin** - **Market Information**: The decline of the tin contract, the increase of registered warehouse receipts, and the decline of tin concentrate prices [21]. - **Strategy**: The short - term price is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to observe [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Market Information**: The stable spot price and the increase of the futures contract price [23]. - **Strategy**: The price has a strong bottom support, and it is recommended to pay attention to supply and demand and market sentiment [24]. - **Alumina** - **Market Information**: The decline of the alumina index, the change of positions, and the opening of the import window [25]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe and wait for macro - sentiment resonance [26]. - **Stainless Steel** - **Market Information**: The decline of the stainless - steel contract, the stable spot price, and the reduction of social inventories [27]. - **Strategy**: The short - term price is expected to oscillate [28]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy** - **Market Information**: The decline of the AD2511 contract, the change of positions and inventories, and the stable average price [29]. - **Strategy**: The price is under pressure above and supported by the cost of scrap aluminum [30]. 3.3 Black Building Materials - **Steel** - **Market Information**: The decline of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures prices, the change of registered warehouse receipts and positions, and the decline of spot prices [32]. - **Strategy**: There is a risk of price decline if demand cannot be effectively repaired [34]. - **Iron Ore** - **Market Information**: The decline of the iron - ore contract, the change of positions, and the calculation of the basis [35]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to downstream demand recovery and de - stocking speed [36]. - **Glass and Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: The decline of glass and soda - ash futures prices, the change of inventories and positions [37][39]. - **Strategy**: Both are expected to continue to oscillate and sort out [37][40]. - **Manganese - silicon and Silicon - iron** - **Market Information**: The rise of manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures prices, and the stable spot prices [41]. - **Strategy**: There may be a short - term downward callback risk, but multi - allocation value may appear in the future [42][43]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: The decline of industrial - silicon and polysilicon futures prices, and the change of positions and inventories [46][48]. - **Strategy**: Both are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to supply - demand changes and policy impacts [47][49]. 3.4 Energy and Chemical - **Rubber** - **Market Information**: The impact of typhoon "Huajiacha", the different views of bulls and bears, and the change of tire - enterprise operating rates and inventories [51][52][53]. - **Strategy**: Long - term bullish, short - term neutral or slightly bullish [53]. - **Crude Oil** - **Market Information**: The decline of WTI, Brent, and INE crude - oil futures prices, and the de - stocking of refined - oil products in Fujeirah Port [54]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to multi - allocate [56]. - **Methanol** - **Market Information**: The change of methanol prices and basis, and the change of supply and demand and inventories [57]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe [58]. - **Urea** - **Market Information**: The decline of urea prices and basis, and the change of supply and demand and inventories [59]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe or go long on dips [60]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene** - **Market Information**: The change of pure - benzene and styrene prices, basis, and supply - demand indicators [61]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on dips [62]. - **PVC** - **Market Information**: The decline of PVC prices and basis, and the change of supply and demand and inventories [63]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go short on rallies [64]. - **Ethylene Glycol** - **Market Information**: The decline of ethylene - glycol prices and basis, and the change of supply and demand and inventories [65]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go short on rallies, but beware of non - fulfillment of weak expectations [66]. - **PTA** - **Market Information**: The decline of PTA prices and basis, and the change of supply and demand and inventories [67]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe [69]. - **p - Xylene** - **Market Information**: The decline of p - xylene prices and basis, and the change of supply and demand and inventories [70]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe and pay attention to the recovery of the terminal and PTA valuations [71]. - **Polyethylene (PE)** - **Market Information**: The decline of PE futures prices, the change of spot prices, basis, and supply - demand indicators [72]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate upwards in the long - term [73]. - **Polypropylene (PP)** - **Market Information**: The decline of PP futures prices, the change of spot prices, basis, and supply - demand indicators [74]. - **Strategy**: There is no prominent short - term contradiction, and the price is under pressure from high - level warehouse receipts [75]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Pig** - **Market Information**: The stable or declining pig prices in different regions, and the abundant supply and limited demand [78]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go short on the near - month contract and do reverse arbitrage [79]. - **Egg** - **Market Information**: The stable egg prices, and the stable supply and general demand [80]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe in the short term and pay attention to buying the far - month contract after a decline [81]. - **Soybean Meal** - **Market Information**: The weak rebound of US soybeans, the cancellation of Argentina's export tax, and the change of domestic soybean and soybean - meal inventories [82]. - **Strategy**: The market is expected to oscillate in a range, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [84]. - **Oil** - **Market Information**: The change of palm - oil export and production in Malaysia, the decline of domestic oil prices, and the stable spot basis [85]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to be oscillatory and bullish in the medium - term, and it is recommended to buy after a decline and stabilization [86]. - **Sugar** - **Market Information**: The decline of sugar futures and spot prices, and the decrease of Brazil's sugar exports [87]. - **Strategy**: Bearish in the long - term, but may have a short - term rebound [88]. - **Cotton** - **Market Information**: The decline of cotton futures and spot prices, the change of downstream operating rates and inventories, and the high - quality rate of US cotton [90]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe in the short term [91].