Core Viewpoint - The recent meeting among PTA and bottle chip industry leaders is seen as a crucial step to mitigate "involution" competition and promote stable industry operations amid supply-demand mismatches and low profits [1][2]. Industry Overview - The polyester industry is currently in a phase of concentrated capacity investment, with poor profitability reported across the sector. However, the PX segment maintains a good capacity utilization rate, while PTA faces operational challenges due to intense competition [1]. - PTA's average operating load this year is reported to be below 80%, with spot processing margins dropping to as low as 100 yuan/ton, significantly below normal processing cost levels, leading to potential losses for companies [1][2]. Market Dynamics - Despite low processing fees in the PTA and bottle chip sectors, significant capacity clearance is unlikely in the short term due to the relatively recent investment in capacity. However, the current capacity utilization is better than the previous downturn cycle (2014-2015) [2]. - The polyester industry has begun to implement "anti-involution" measures, such as increasing maintenance frequency and duration, and collaborative production cuts among suppliers, which have led to a recovery in processing margins [2]. Recent Trends - The polyester sector has shown strength recently, with PX and PTA futures rebounding quickly, driven by cost support from rising crude oil prices and increased demand in anticipation of the "Double 11" shopping festival [3]. - The market expects that the meeting among industry leaders will lead to measures aimed at reducing losses, although there are concerns about potential declines in textile and apparel production loads in November [3]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that if new PTA and bottle chip capacities slow down next year while demand stabilizes, the supply-demand structure for both could improve. However, the industry still faces seasonal pressures and inventory accumulation in the short term [4]. - As previously invested capacities are gradually digested and competition among leading companies stabilizes, the polyester industry is expected to focus more on improving operational efficiency and optimizing balance sheets [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tongkun Co., Ltd. is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report highlights a slight decline in operating performance due to a drag from the polyester sector, with a focus on the long filament industry's competitive landscape improvement [2][3] - The company reported a revenue of 67.397 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 11.38%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 53.83% to 1.549 billion yuan [2][3] - The report anticipates a recovery in the long filament market driven by improved supply-demand dynamics and the company's competitive advantages as a market leader [4][6] Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a net profit of 1.549 billion yuan, with a basic earnings per share (EPS) of 0.65 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 54.76% [2][3] - The average prices of key raw materials such as PX, MEG, and PTA decreased by 17.13%, 0.92%, and 17.18% respectively, while the prices of main products POY, FDY, and DTY fell by 9.55%, 15.38%, and 9.94% respectively [3] - The report projects the company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be 2.087 billion, 2.788 billion, and 3.416 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 73.7%, 33.6%, and 22.5% [6] Industry Outlook - The report notes that the polyester sector is experiencing a seasonal slowdown, but the long filament market is expected to see a gradual recovery as downstream demand improves [3][4] - The competitive landscape in the long filament industry is anticipated to strengthen, with the market leader's advantages becoming more pronounced as smaller players exit the market [4][6] - The report indicates that the average operating rate of textile enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has risen to approximately 69%, suggesting a recovery in industry activity [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Rongsheng Petrochemical, indicating a positive outlook for the company's stock performance relative to the market [5]. Core Insights - The company's performance exceeded expectations, with a notable recovery in profitability driven by the refining sector and a potential recovery in the polyester market due to policy changes aimed at reducing competition [5]. - The report highlights a significant increase in net profit for Q3 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 1427.94%, indicating strong operational performance [5]. - Future growth is anticipated from new material projects and a partnership with Saudi Aramco, which is expected to enhance the company's long-term growth prospects [5]. Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 343.298 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.2% [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to reach 2.936 billion in 2025, reflecting a substantial increase of 305.3% compared to the previous year [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 0.29 in 2025, with a projected increase to 0.75 by 2027 [4]. - The report notes a gross margin of 10.7% for 2025, with an anticipated improvement in return on equity (ROE) to 6.3% [4]. Market Context - The report discusses the impact of Brent crude oil prices on refining margins, with a calculated refining price difference of 1471 yuan/ton for Q3 2025, indicating a favorable market environment for the refining sector [5]. - The polyester market is currently facing challenges due to oversupply, but the report suggests that internal industry cooperation may lead to a recovery in profitability [5]. - The anticipated "anti-involution" policies are expected to facilitate the exit of less competitive refineries, thereby improving the overall refining landscape [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tongkun Co., Ltd. (601233) [6] Core Views - The polyester industry is currently under pressure, but the "anti-involution" policy is expected to accelerate industry recovery [6] - The company's Q3 performance was slightly below expectations, with a revenue of 67.397 billion yuan, down 11.38% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 53.83% to 1.549 billion yuan [6] - The report anticipates a gradual improvement in profitability for the polyester segment due to reduced capital expenditures and favorable industry policies [6] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 102.542 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.2% [5] - The net profit for 2025 is estimated at 2.127 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 77.0% [5] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 5.8% in Q1-Q3 2025 to 7.6% in 2026 [5] - The report highlights a decrease in polyester filament sales volume in Q3 2025, which reached 3.19 million tons, down 7.5% quarter-on-quarter [6] - The PTA industry is facing continued pressure, but a rebound is anticipated as leading companies enter a phase of coordinated production cuts [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance exceeded expectations, with a notable recovery in profitability driven by the "anti-involution" policy, which is expected to boost industry recovery [6] - The report highlights a potential improvement in refining margins and polyester market conditions, suggesting a favorable outlook for the company's future performance [6] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 343.298 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.2% [5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 2.936 billion in 2025, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 305.3% [5] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to reach 0.29 in 2025, with a projected PE ratio of 35 [5] - The company achieved a gross margin of 12.19% in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 0.48 percentage points [6] Market and Industry Analysis - The report indicates that the refining sector is showing signs of recovery, with Brent oil prices increasing and a projected refining margin of 1,471 yuan/ton in Q3 2025, up 202 yuan/ton from the previous quarter [6] - The polyester market is currently facing challenges due to oversupply, but the "anti-involution" policy is expected to lead to coordinated production cuts, which may improve market conditions [6] - The company's new materials projects and collaboration with Saudi Aramco are anticipated to enhance future growth prospects [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The polyester industry is experiencing pressure, but the "anti-involution" trend is expected to accelerate industry recovery [1] - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 67.397 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.38%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.549 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 53.83% [7] - The third quarter saw a decline in polyester demand due to seasonal factors, with a significant drop in sales volume [7] - The PTA industry continues to face pressure from excess supply, but a rebound is anticipated as major players begin to reduce production [7] - Investment income from Zhejiang Petrochemical has improved, indicating potential for future profitability [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 102.542 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.2% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is projected to be 2.127 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 77.0% [6] - The company's gross margin for Q3 2025 was 4.01%, down 2 percentage points from the previous quarter [7] - The report forecasts earnings per share of 0.88 yuan for 2025, with a PE ratio of 17 [6]

| 证券代码：600370 | 证券简称：三房巷 | 公告编号：2025-081 | | --- | --- | --- | | 转债代码：110092 | 转债简称：三房转债 | | 二、主要产品和原材料的价格变动情况 （一）主要产品价格波动情况（不含税） | 主要产品 | 2025 年 月 | 1-9 | 2024 年 | 1-9 月 | 变动比例 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 平均售价（元/吨） | | 平均售价（元/吨） | | （%） | | 瓶级聚酯切片 | | 5,568.83 | | 6,337.71 | -12.13 | | PTA | | 4,242.43 | | 5,122.74 | -17.18 | （二）主要原材料价格波动情况（不含税） | 主要原材料 | 年 月 2025 1-9 | | 年 月 2024 1-9 | | 变动比例 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 平均采购价（元/吨） | | 平均采购价（元/吨） | | （%） | | PX | | 5,978.45 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The news of the PTA industry promoting an "anti-involution" policy has pushed up the PTA price rapidly, but it may fall due to the post - market decline of crude oil [2]. - Although the overall load of domestic PTA plants has been adjusted down due to low processing fees, the polyester industry's profit is still constrained by over - capacity pressure from new capacity and overseas plant commissioning [2]. - After long - term low - level operation, the PTA price rebounded quickly due to policy expectations. The current downstream polyester operating rate remains above 91%, with demand slightly exceeding expectations, and recent polyester production and sales are generally high [2]. - Against the background of positive news from the Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, overseas demand for Chinese textile and clothing products is expected to recover [2] Group 3: Summary of Related Data Spot and Futures Prices - PTA spot price remained at 4535, MEG inner - market price decreased from 4167 to 4152, PTA closing price increased from 4614 to 4636, and MEG closing price increased from 4069 to 4100 [2]. - The price of 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber decreased from 6445 to 6440, and the short - fiber basis increased from 103 to 151 [2]. - The price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets decreased, with the average price down 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day [2]. Industry Indicators - The direct - spinning short - fiber load (weekly) increased from 93.90% to 94.40%, and the polyester staple fiber production and sales decreased from 44.00% to 41.00% [2][3]. - The yarn - spinning machine operating rate (weekly) remained at 63.50%, and the recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) decreased from 51.50% to 51.00% [2][3]. Cash Flow and Processing Fees - The polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, and the bottle - chip spot processing fee decreased from 459 to 455 [2]. - The T32S pure - polyester yarn processing fee increased from 3875 to 3880, and the polyester - cotton yarn profit decreased from 1587 to 1536 [2]. - The cash flow of 6 - 15D hollow short - fiber increased from 522 to 527 [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2) Core Viewpoints - PTA prices saw a rapid afternoon rally due to rumors of an "anti-involution" policy in the PTA industry. Despite rising crude oil prices, PTA prices had only rebounded slightly. With cost support from rising crude oil and policy expectations, PTA prices rebounded after long - term low - level operation. The downstream polyester industry's demand is slightly better than expected, and overseas demand for Chinese textile and clothing products may recover after positive signals from China - US economic and trade negotiations [2]. - For ethylene glycol, the inventory at East China ports remains low, and the arrival volume at ports is limited. However, domestic device production and the return of coal - based ethylene glycol devices are pressuring prices. As the polyester peak season is ending and the crude oil fundamentals are weakening, the polyester industry is expected to operate weakly [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **INE Crude Oil**: Price dropped from 462.7 yuan/barrel on October 28, 2025, to 462.6 yuan/barrel on October 29, 2025, a decrease of 0.10 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA - SC**: Price increased from 1251.5 yuan/ton to 1274.2 yuan/ton, an increase of 22.73 yuan/ton [2]. - **PX**: CFR China PX price rose from 814 to 818, an increase of 4; PX - naphtha spread widened from 236 to 249, an increase of 13 [2]. - **PTA**: The main futures price rose from 4614 yuan/ton to 4636 yuan/ton, an increase of 22 yuan/ton; the spot price remained unchanged at 4535 yuan/ton; the spot processing fee decreased from 180.7 yuan/ton to 170.1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.6 yuan/ton; the disk processing fee increased from 259.7 yuan/ton to 261.1 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.4 yuan/ton; the main basis improved from (81) to (76), an increase of 5; the number of PTA warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 48579 [2]. - **MEG**: The main futures price rose from 4069 yuan/ton to 4100 yuan/ton, an increase of 31 yuan/ton; the MEG - naphtha spread decreased from (121.59) yuan/ton to (121.78) yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.2 yuan/ton; the MEG domestic price decreased from 4167 to 4152, a decrease of 15; the main basis decreased from 83 to 78, a decrease of 5 [2]. - **Industry Chain Operating Rates**: PX operating rate remained at 86.21%, PTA operating rate increased from 79.46% to 80.09%, an increase of 0.63%, MEG operating rate remained at 64.41%, and polyester load remained at 89.28% [2]. - **Polyester Product Data**: For polyester filament, POY150D/48F, FDY150D/96F, and DTY150D/48F prices remained unchanged; POY, FDY, and DTY cash flows increased by 5; the filament sales rate decreased from 63% to 48%, a decrease of 15%. For polyester staple fiber, the price of 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber decreased from 6445 to 6440, a decrease of 5; the staple fiber cash flow remained at 272; the staple fiber sales rate remained at 43%. For polyester chips, the semi - bright chip price increased from 5560 to 5565, an increase of 5; the chip cash flow increased from (63) to (53), an increase of 10; the chip sales rate decreased from 57% to 37%, a decrease of 20% [2]. Device Maintenance - A 2.2 - million - ton PTA device in East China slightly reduced its load, and the recovery time is to be tracked [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall risk preference in the crude oil market has improved, and oil prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. The prices of fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride are all expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the impact of macro - factors on oil prices [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, oil prices rebounded. WTI December contract rose $0.33 to $60.48 per barrel (0.55% increase), Brent December contract rose $0.52 to $64.92 per barrel (0.81% increase), and SC2512 closed at 465.1 yuan per barrel, up 5.9 yuan (1.28% increase). EIA inventory data showed a comprehensive decline in inventories. Mexican national oil company's production decreased year - on - year. The Fed cut interest rates, and the subsequent rate - cut path is uncertain. The market is expected to fluctuate [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main contracts of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell. The Asian low - sulfur market structure weakened due to weak downstream demand and sufficient supply, while the high - sulfur market is expected to remain stable. FU and LU absolute prices will fluctuate with the cost side [3] - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell. In November, the refinery's asphalt production plan decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The inventory levels all decreased. The supply pressure will ease, and there is still a rush - work expectation in some markets. The BU absolute price will fluctuate with the cost side [3] - **Polyester**: TA601 and EG2601 rose on Wednesday. The production and sales of polyester improved, and the fundamentals of TA improved. However, there is still a pressure of inventory accumulation for EG in the fourth quarter, and its price is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the trend of crude oil prices [4] - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - number rubber rose, while the butadiene rubber contract fell. The social inventory of natural rubber decreased. Due to the upcoming Sino - US leaders' meeting and good demand, rubber prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [4] - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, the spot price of methanol was reported. The domestic overhauled devices are gradually resuming production, and the overseas Iranian devices will be restricted by winter gas curtailment. The short - term port supply is still abundant, and methanol prices are expected to fluctuate [6] - **Polyolefins**: On Wednesday, the prices of polyolefins were reported. The short - term production will remain high, and the marginal increase in demand will gradually decline. The rebound of crude oil supports the valuation, but the fundamental driving force is weakening, and prices are expected to enter a fluctuating stage [6] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Wednesday, the PVC market prices in East, North, and South China were reported. The supply remains high, domestic demand slows down, and exports are expected to be weak. The price has a demand for phased repair, but the rebound height is limited under high - inventory pressure [8] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The document provides the basis price, basis rate, and their changes of various energy - chemical varieties on October 29 and 28, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. It also shows the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [9] 3.3 Market News - US EIA data shows that the decline in US crude oil, gasoline, and distillate fuel inventories last week exceeded analysts' expectations, forcing the market to re - evaluate the expectation of a large surplus in the oil market [11] - Trump predicted that his talks with Chinese leaders would yield good results. The talks are scheduled for Thursday at a summit in South Korea. The positive news about the Sino - US talks and the US - South Korea trade agreement eased investors' concerns about the economic recession caused by Trump's tariffs and trade wars [11] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: It provides the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [13] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It provides the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [25] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It provides the spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical varieties, such as the spread between 01 - 05 and 05 - 09 contracts of fuel oil, and the spread between the main and sub - main contracts of asphalt [39] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It provides the spread and ratio charts between different varieties, such as the spread between domestic and foreign crude oil, the B - W spread of crude oil, the high - low sulfur spread of fuel oil, etc. [55] - **4.5 Production Profits**: It provides the production profit charts of LLDPE and PP from 2018 to 2025 [63] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant to the director of the research institute and director of energy - chemical research. With more than ten years of experience in futures derivatives market research, she has won many awards and has rich experience in serving enterprises [67] - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping. She has won many industry awards and has in - depth research on the energy industry chain [68] - **Di Yilin**: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester. She has won several awards and is good at data analysis and research on related varieties [69] - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, propylene, pure benzene, polyolefins, and PVC. He has a background in energy - chemical spot - futures trading and relevant professional qualifications [70]