1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Copper, Aluminum, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Canola Oil [1] - **Bearish**: None - **Neutral**: Stock Index, Treasury Bonds, Alumina, Zinc, Non - ferrous Metals, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals, Platinum - Palladium, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Iron Ore, Other Metals, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean Meal, Pulp, Crude Oil, Bitumen, Shanghai Rubber, BR Rubber, PTA, Polyester Staple Fiber, Styrene, Methanol, PE, PP, PVC, SS, LPG, Container Shipping on European Routes [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Before the holiday, the domestic macro - level may be relatively calm, and market performance will be highly related to regulatory trends. The stock index is expected to have limited short - term shock adjustment space and mainly show a shock - strong trend [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - Although the industrial drive is limited, the market risk preference has increased, and the prices of copper and aluminum are rising. The supply of domestic alumina is strong while demand is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate [1]. - The cost center of zinc fundamentals is stabilizing, and there is room for a supplementary increase in zinc prices. The supply of Indonesian nickel ore is tightening, and short - term nickel prices are running at a high level [1]. - The supply of stainless - steel raw materials is unstable, and the futures are oscillating at a high level. The supply of tin ore in Myanmar has limited incremental supply in the first quarter, and there is upward potential for tin prices [1]. - Due to the tense geopolitical situation in Iran, the prices of precious metals have risen strongly, but short - term fluctuations are severe. The prices of platinum and palladium fluctuate greatly, and it is recommended to allocate platinum at low prices [1]. - The production of industrial silicon in the northwest is increasing while that in the southwest is decreasing. The production of polysilicon and organic silicon in December has decreased [1]. - The new - energy vehicle market is in the off - season, but the energy - storage demand is strong. The price of lithium carbonate has risen significantly [1]. - The expected increase in rebar and iron - ore prices is not strong, and it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach. The supply and demand of other metals are in a situation of weak reality and strong expectation [1]. - The supply of soda ash is more relaxed in the medium term, and the price is under pressure. The market is pessimistic about the coking - coal 05 contract, and the previous low - buying strategy may need to be changed [1]. - The purchase rhythm of major consumer countries has started, and the price of palm oil is expected to be shock - strong. The fundamentals of domestic soybean oil are strong, and the price is bullish [1]. - The import of Canadian rapeseed is restricted, and the supply contradiction is not significantly alleviated. The cotton market is currently supported but lacks driving force [1]. - The global sugar market is in surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply is increasing. The upward momentum of corn prices before the holiday is insufficient [1]. - The Brazilian soybean supply is sufficient, and it is recommended to be cautious when chasing up the soybean - meal price. The paper - pulp price has fallen, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - The price of logs is expected to have limited further decline space and will fluctuate within a certain range. The pig - production capacity needs to be further released [1]. - Due to OPEC+ suspending production increase, tense Middle - East geopolitics, and the US cold wave, the price of crude oil is affected [1]. - Bitumen follows the trend of crude oil, and its profit is relatively high. Shanghai rubber is driven by cost and market sentiment to rise [1]. - The fundamentals of BR rubber are mixed, with short - term wide - range fluctuations and medium - long - term upward expectations. The PTA and polyester staple - fiber markets are affected by the strong PX market [1]. - The price of styrene has rebounded, and the inventory pressure has decreased. The methanol market is affected by the Iranian situation and downstream feedback [1]. - The supply of PE and PP is under pressure, and the PVC market has both positive and negative factors. The SS market fundamentals are weak [1]. - The LPG market is affected by multiple factors, and the price is expected to weaken. The freight rate of container shipping on European routes has peaked and fallen before the holiday [1] 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index - Before the holiday, the domestic macro - level may be relatively calm, and market performance will be highly related to regulatory trends. The short - term shock adjustment space is limited, and it will mainly show a shock - strong trend [1] Treasury Bonds - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1] Copper - Although the industrial drive is limited, the market risk preference has increased, and copper prices have risen further [1] Aluminum - Recently, the industrial drive is limited, but the decline of the US dollar index supports the price. Coupled with the tense situation in the Middle East, which causes concerns about the supply side, aluminum prices are running strongly [1] Alumina - The supply of domestic alumina is strong while demand is weak, and the industrial situation is weak. The price is under pressure, but it is currently near the cost line and is expected to fluctuate [1] Zinc - The cost center of zinc fundamentals is stabilizing. Recently, the North American cold wave has increased energy prices, which is unfavorable for the resumption of overseas smelters. There is room for a supplementary increase in zinc prices [1] Non - ferrous Metals - The market risk preference has recovered, which boosts non - ferrous metals. The supply of Indonesian nickel ore is tightening, and short - term nickel prices are running at a high level, still affected by the resonance of the non - ferrous metals sector. In the medium - long term, the high global nickel inventory may still have a suppressing effect [1] Stainless Steel - The supply of raw - material nickel - iron prices has been rising continuously, the spot trading of stainless steel is weak, the speed of social - inventory reduction has slowed down, and the steel mills' production schedule in January has increased. The supply - side disturbances are repeated, and the stainless - steel futures are oscillating at a high level [1] Tin - In the short term, the market sentiment is changeable. Although the approval of explosives in Myanmar is a negative news, the incremental supply of tin ore in Myanmar in the first quarter is still limited. Under the situation of fragile supply and rigid demand, there is upward potential for tin prices [1] Precious Metals - Due to the tense geopolitical situation in Iran, the demand for hedging and the wave of de - dollarization have accelerated, and the prices of precious metals have risen strongly again. However, as the market sentiment has fermented to the extreme, the prices of gold and silver have plunged at a high level, with severe short - term fluctuations. It is recommended to participate with a light position [1] Platinum - Palladium - The macro - drive has weakened, and the liquidity is relatively insufficient, resulting in large price fluctuations of platinum and palladium. In the medium - long term, the supply - demand prospects of platinum and palladium are different. There is still a supply - demand gap for platinum, while palladium tends to have a loose supply. It is recommended to allocate platinum at low prices or focus on the [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy [1] Industrial Silicon - The production in the northwest is increasing while that in the southwest is decreasing. The production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December have decreased [1] Polysilicon - The new - energy vehicle market is in the off - season, the energy - storage demand is strong, there is a rush for battery exports, and the price has risen significantly [1] Lithium Carbonate - The expected increase is strong, but the spot market is weak, and the sentiment has not been smoothly transmitted to the spot market. The upward momentum is insufficient [1] Rebar - The expected increase is strong, but the spot market is light, and the sentiment transmission to the spot is not smooth. The upward momentum is insufficient. It is recommended to close the long - single position and participate in the cash - and - carry arbitrage [1] Iron Ore - There is sector rotation, but the upward pressure on iron - ore prices is obvious. It is not recommended to chase up at this position [1] Other Metals - There is a situation of weak reality and strong expectation. The current supply and demand continue to be weak, but energy - consumption dual control and anti - involution may have an impact on the supply [1] Soda Ash - It mainly follows the trend of glass. The medium - term supply and demand are more relaxed, and the price is under pressure [1] Coking Coal - The market is pessimistic about the coking - coal 05 contract. After the first - round price increase of coke was shelved on Monday, funds began to anticipate the downstream's active de - stocking after the holiday. The short - position increased, and the price of coking - coal 05 broke through the previous important multi - empty boundary and support levels. The previous low - buying strategy may need to be changed [1] Coke - The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1] Palm Oil - The purchase rhythm of major consumer countries has started, and the production area is expected to reduce production and inventory. Coupled with the possible fermentation of the biodiesel theme, it is expected to be shock - strong [1] Soybean Oil - The fundamentals of domestic soybean oil are strong, and coupled with the rebound of US soybeans and positive news about US biodiesel, it is bullish [1] Canola Oil - Due to the influence of the US, the relationship between China and Canada is still uncertain, the continuous import of Canadian rapeseed is blocked, and the short - term supply contradiction is not significantly alleviated. Positive news about US biodiesel is beneficial to the oil market [1] Cotton - The domestic new - crop harvest is expected to be good, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream operation rate is low, but the yarn - mill inventory is not high, and there is a rigid demand for replenishment. Considering the growth of spinning capacity, the demand for cotton in the new - crop market year is relatively resilient. Currently, the cotton market is in a situation of "supported but lack of driving force" [1] Sugar - Globally, there is a sugar surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply has increased. The short - term fundamentals lack continuous driving force. Attention should be paid to the change in the capital side [1] Corn - Before the holiday, the stocking is almost over, the regional price difference is at a low level, and the domestic grain - reserve inventory is sufficient. The funds have taken profit, and the upward momentum of the futures price is insufficient. It is expected to fluctuate and回调 before the holiday [1] Soybean Meal - In February, there is an expectation of rainfall return in the Argentine production area, and the total supply of Brazilian soybeans is sufficient. The expected logistics congestion has postponed the selling pressure of Brazilian premiums. Unilaterally, there are no conditions for a significant trend - like increase. Currently, the domestic soybean - purchasing and crushing profit is at a high level, and from the perspective of crushing profit, the valuation of the soybean - meal futures is relatively high. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing up [1] Pulp - Today, the pulp price has fallen due to the decline of the commodity macro - market, but it has not broken through the oscillation range. The short - term commodity sentiment fluctuates greatly, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] Logs - The spot price of logs has shown a certain sign of bottom - rebounding recently, and the futures price is expected to have limited further decline space. However, the January overseas offer has still slightly decreased, and the spot and futures markets of logs lack upward - driving factors. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1] Pigs - Recently, the spot price has gradually stabilized. Supported by demand and with the slaughter weight not fully cleared, the production capacity still needs to be further released [1] Crude Oil - OPEC+ has suspended production increase until the end of 2026, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has heated up, and the cold wave in the US has increased energy demand [1] Bitumen - In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The probability of the 14th - Five - Year Plan rush - work demand being falsified is high, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The profit of bitumen is relatively high [1] Shanghai Rubber - The raw - material cost has strong support, the sharp rise of synthetic rubber has driven the sector to strengthen, and the overall atmosphere of the commodity market is bullish [1] BR Rubber - The cost - end butadiene still has strong bottom support, and the overseas cracking - device capacity has been cleared, which is beneficial to the long - term domestic butadiene export expectation. Recently, the profit of private cis - butadiene rubber plants has been severely lost, and the expectation of maintenance and production reduction has increased, and the short - term downstream negative feedback has been gradually realized. Fundamentally, butadiene is in the process of inventory reduction, and the high inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is still a potential negative factor. Attention should be paid to the pre - Spring - Festival inventory reduction of cis - butadiene rubber and the performance of butadiene inventory. The short - term futures price is expected to have a wide - range oscillation and a callback, and there is an upward expectation for BR in the medium - long term [1] PTA - The PX market has strongly led the rise of chemical products, and a large amount of funds have flowed into the chemical sector. Driven by the "cycle reversal" narrative, the market has significantly increased the allocation of chemical products. Polyester has led the rise of the entire chemical sector. The domestic PTA production has continued to increase, there is no new PTA production capacity in China, the domestic PTA has maintained a high - operation rate, the domestic demand has declined, and the production reduction of polyester factories has had a limited negative feedback on PTA [1] Polyester Staple Fiber - The PX market has strongly led the rise of chemical products, and a large amount of funds have flowed into the chemical sector. Driven by the "cycle reversal" narrative, the market has significantly increased the allocation of chemical products. Polyester has led the rise of the entire chemical sector. The domestic PTA production has continued to increase, there is no new PTA production capacity in China, the domestic PTA has maintained a high - operation rate, the domestic demand has declined, and the price of polyester staple fiber continues to closely follow the cost fluctuations [1] Styrene - There is news that the styrene plant in the Middle East has shut down. As the supply - demand fundamentals of styrene have improved marginally, the styrene futures price has rebounded rapidly. The Asian styrene market has stabilized, supported by the increase in domestic export opportunities and the rise of domestic prices. The styrene - benzene price difference has widened, and the economy has been slightly repaired. The styrene inventory has decreased, and the overall inventory pressure has been reduced [1] Methanol - Methanol is generally affected by the situation in Iran, and it is expected that the future import will decrease, but the downstream negative feedback is obvious, with both long and short factors intertwined. The downstream MTO leading plant has shut down, and some enterprises have reduced production, but Fude will restart on January 25th. The situation in Iran has eased, but the risk cannot be completely ruled out. Affected by the cold air, the freight in the inland area has increased, and the northwest enterprises have a large pressure to reduce inventory and sell at a reduced price [1] PE - The overseas ethylene glycol price has rebounded after a long - term slump. The reduction of ethylene glycol exports in the Middle East has boosted market confidence. A 1.8 - million - ton ethylene glycol plant in Jiangsu plans to switch the production of a 900,000 - ton EG production line in mid - February due to profit reasons. Driven by this news, the speculative demand in the market has significantly increased [1] PP - There are few maintenance operations, the operation load is relatively high, and the supply pressure is relatively large. The downstream improvement is less than expected. The price has returned to a reasonable range. The geopolitical conflict has intensified, and there is a risk of crude - oil price increase [1] PVC - In 2026, the global new production capacity is relatively small, and the future expectation is relatively optimistic. The fundamentals are poor. The export tax rebate has been cancelled, and there may be a phenomenon of rushing for exports later. The differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, which will force the elimination of PVC production capacity [1] SS - The macro - sentiment has temporarily subsided, and the futures price is expected to react to the fundamentals again. The fundamentals are weak, and the absolute price is at a low level. The factory is facing continuous inventory accumulation, and the spot price may still be reduced [1] LPG - The March CP is expected to decline compared with February, and the futures sentiment will switch between fundamentals and sentiment. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has cooled down, and the short - term risk premium has declined. The driving logic of the overseas cold wave is gradually weakening, the futures price is expected to weaken, and the basis is expected to gradually widen. The domestic PDH operation rate has declined, the profit is expected to be seasonally repaired, the global civil - combustion rigid demand is stable, the demand for MTBE

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that 77 REITs have disclosed their Q4 2025 results, showing marginal improvements in cyclical sectors and growth potential in counter-cyclical sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Performance Summary - 42 newly listed REITs exceeded performance expectations in Q4, with average achievement rates for revenue, EBITDA, and distributable amounts at 103.7%, 92.4%, and 104.1% respectively [1][2]. - Existing REITs showed overall marginal performance improvement, with year-on-year average changes in the three key metrics being 5.2%, 6.2%, and 17.2% [1][2]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - The consumption and rental housing sectors performed exceptionally well, while the municipal environmental sector experienced significant seasonal fluctuations. The transportation infrastructure sector underperformed expectations, and there was a mixed performance in energy, industrial parks, and warehousing logistics [3]. - Industrial parks continued to face year-on-year pressure but showed improved rental rates quarter-on-quarter, with factory REITs outperforming research and development office REITs [3]. - The warehousing and logistics sector saw marginal improvements in volume, while prices continued to decline, with stable whole leases and related contracts [3]. - The rental housing sector maintained high occupancy rates with slight fluctuations, and rental prices for policy-based rental housing increased steadily [3]. - The consumption sector benefited from strong operations and seasonal demand, leading to impressive performance, with operational and positioning factors driving differentiation [3]. - Data centers maintained stable performance due to large clients and long-term agreements [3]. - New transportation projects performed well, but performance differentiation continued due to network structure and cargo composition [3]. - The municipal sector is supported by demand stability, with a focus on actively improving operational projects [3]. - The energy sector experienced performance differentiation accelerated by resource endowments and regional electricity reform policies [3]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The strategy for new listings and strategic placements has shifted from "general selection" to "careful selection," with concentrated policy benefits expected to be released. The outlook for the REITs market in the first half of 2026 is positive, focusing on three main lines: counter-cyclical, high prosperity, and strong fundraising [4]. - The first line includes sectors with strong counter-cyclical attributes, such as consumption infrastructure, policy-based rental housing, and municipal environmental sectors [4]. - The second line includes sectors aligned with national strategic directions and high prosperity, such as data centers, as well as some warehousing logistics and highway projects showing marginal recovery [4]. - The third line benefits from the strategic value of public REITs as "asset listing platforms," with strong fundraising demands from original equity holders and high-quality asset reserves [4].

Group 1 - The Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index fell by 2.86% as of January 30, 2026, with mixed performance among constituent stocks, led by Fostar, while Nanshan Aluminum experienced the largest decline [1] - CICC pointed out that the supply-demand gap for electrolytic aluminum continues to widen, and with global fiscal and monetary policies resonating, aluminum prices are expected to reach new highs, with profit per ton of aluminum likely to expand as prices rise [1] - Guotai Junan Securities noted that while copper prices are currently affected by macro sentiment and AI-related demand adjustments, the long-term outlook remains strong due to ongoing tight supply of copper mines and declining spot processing fees [1] Group 2 - The National Grid's fixed asset investment for the "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase compared to the previous plan, which supports the copper price outlook [1] - Yingda Securities emphasized the importance of following the "14th Five-Year Plan" and subsequent policy directions, suggesting a focus on technology growth stocks with earnings support, as well as cyclical varieties, domestic consumption, dividend stocks, and sectors with improving economic conditions [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index as of December 31, 2025, include China National Offshore Oil Corporation, SAIC Motor, Gree Electric Appliances, and others, accounting for 51.95% of the index [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the document. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Financial Derivatives**: The stock index futures showed a strengthened style conversion, with the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 and Shanghai 50 indices performing strongly while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices were weak. The market is expected to continue its upward - trending in an oscillatory manner. The treasury bond futures rose and then fell, continuing the oscillation pattern. The direct impact of the rumored new monetary policy tool on the bond market is considered neutral [21][22][23]. - **Agriculture**: For protein meal, the supply pressure persists, and the price on the disk is under pressure for adjustment. The international sugar price fluctuates greatly, while the domestic sugar price is slightly stronger. The external - market prices of the oil and fat sector have declined. The northern port's spot price of corn and corn starch has fallen, and the disk price is oscillating at a high level. The pig price is continuously declining due to the supply pressure. The peanut spot price is stable, and the disk price is oscillating at the bottom. The egg price has increased due to pre - festival stocking. The apple price is firm due to good pre - festival sales. The fundamentals of cotton and cotton yarn have changed little, and the cotton price is supported [26][28][35]. - **Black Metals**: The demand for steel is marginally weakening, and the steel price will continue to oscillate following the market sentiment. The fundamental influence on coking coal and coke is decreasing, while the capital disturbance is increasing. The terminal demand for iron ore is at a low level, and the ore price is oscillating. For ferroalloys, due to the sharp shock in the night - session commodities, some of the previous long positions should be closed for profit [56][57][61]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The sharp decline in the US stock market has triggered a huge shock in the gold and silver markets. The liquidity squeeze has led to the decline of platinum and palladium. The concern about AI has caused the copper price to quickly retrace. The alumina price is mainly oscillating. The electrolytic aluminum price is oscillating widely at a high level, and the risk of capital leaving the market should be vigilant. The market liquidity of cast aluminum alloy has tightened, and the alloy has corrected with the sector. The zinc price should pay attention to the change of market sentiment. The lead price is in an oscillatory range due to weak supply and demand. The nickel price is operating at a high level under regulatory cooling. The stainless - steel price is in the off - season, supported by cost. The industrial silicon price should pay attention to the production - cut actions of large manufacturers. The polysilicon price should focus on the spot transaction in the short term. The lithium carbonate price is operating at a high level before the Spring Festival under regulatory cooling and tight supply - demand. The sharp decline in the US stock market has caused a significant retracement of the tin price [66][72][76]. - **Shipping**: Geopolitical conflicts remain unresolved, and the spot freight rates of shipping companies continue to be adjusted downward [112][113]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The crude oil price fluctuates greatly. The asphalt price is oscillating at a high level supported by cost. The fuel oil inventory in Singapore decreased significantly last week, and geopolitical factors are favorable. The geopolitical disturbance of LPG has intensified. The geopolitical risk of natural gas has fermented, and the market volatility has increased again. The polyester sector, including PX and PTA, is strengthening due to geopolitical disturbance and cost support. The cost support for pure benzene and styrene is increasing, and they maintain an upward momentum. The ethylene glycol still has obvious inventory - accumulation pressure before the Spring Festival. The short - fiber and bottle - chip prices are following the cost side to be stronger. The cost support for propylene is increasing. The polyolefin has marginal production cuts, and long positions should be held. The caustic soda price is oscillating. The PVC is operating strongly. The soda ash and glass are in an oscillatory rebound pattern. The methanol price is strongly rising. The urea price is oscillating widely. The pulp price continues to oscillate widely. The high inventory of offset printing paper suppresses the increase of the paper price. The spot price of logs is moderately strong. The natural rubber and 20 - number rubber are strong due to the macro - environment. The butadiene rubber is also strong due to the macro - environment [116][118][123]. 3. Summaries According to the Catalog Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: The stock index futures showed a strengthened style conversion. On Thursday, the Shanghai 50 index rose 1.65%, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 index rose 0.76%, the CSI 500 index fell 0.97%, and the CSI 1000 index fell 0.8%. The main contracts of stock index futures also showed different trends, with IH2603 rising 1.95%, IF2603 rising 1%, IC2603 falling 1.16%, and IM2603 falling 0.53% [20][21]. - **Investment Logic**: The market was differentiated. The gold, non - ferrous, and oil and gas sectors performed strongly, while the technology stocks were weak. The market turnover exceeded 3 trillion yuan, and the style conversion is expected to continue. The market is expected to maintain an upward - trending in an oscillatory manner [20][21]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: expect an oscillatory upward trend; arbitrage: conduct cash - and - carry arbitrage of IM/IC long 2609 and short ETF; options: use a bull - spread strategy [22]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: On Thursday, most treasury bond futures closed higher, with the 30 - year main contract rising 0.07%, the 10 - year main contract rising 0.06%, the 5 - year main contract rising 0.01%, and the 2 - year main contract almost flat. The yields of inter - bank treasury bonds of major tenors fluctuated, with the medium - and short - term bonds performing better than the long - term bonds [23]. - **Investment Logic**: The central bank's net injection of short - term liquidity led to narrow fluctuations in the market's capital supply. The bond market sentiment was affected by the rumor of a new monetary policy tool and the performance of the stock and commodity markets. The direct impact of the new monetary policy tool on the bond market is considered neutral. The current capital market has relatively abundant liquidity, but if it deviates from the real - economy demand, the regulatory attitude may change [23][24]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: close the long positions of the TL contract at high prices; arbitrage: narrow the spread between new and old ultra - long - term bonds; options: not mentioned [24]. Agriculture Protein Meal - **External - market Situation**: The CBOT soybean index fell 0.69% to 1083.5 cents per bushel, and the CBOT soybean meal index fell 1.05% to 300.9 US dollars per short ton [26]. - **Related Information**: The US soybean and soybean meal export sales decreased. Brazil's soybean and soybean meal exports are expected to increase. The domestic soybean crushing volume decreased slightly, and the soybean and soybean meal inventories decreased [26][27]. - **Logic Analysis**: The overall supply - demand of US soybeans is relatively loose, and the center of gravity is expected to move downward. The domestic soybean meal cost is under pressure, but the short - term spot price may be supported. The medium - and long - term pressure on the disk price still exists [27]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: wait and see in the short term and sell short at high prices; arbitrage: expand the MRM spread; options: sell a strangle strategy [27]. Sugar - **External - market Changes**: The ICE US raw sugar main contract price fluctuated, falling 0.01 (- 0.07%) to 14.71 cents per pound. The London white sugar main contract fell 1.3 (- 0.31%) to 411.8 US dollars per ton [29]. - **Important Information**: The number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports increased slightly, and the EU plans to suspend duty - free sugar imports. The domestic main - producing areas' white sugar spot prices are basically stable, and the overall transaction is generally good [30][31]. - **Logic Analysis**: Internationally, the influence of Brazilian sugar is decreasing, and the northern hemisphere's sugar production is mostly in an increasing cycle. The Indian sugar production may increase more than expected, putting downward pressure on the international sugar price. However, due to the low price and the strong performance of commodities, the US sugar price is expected to oscillate at the bottom. Domestically, the sugar supply is under pressure, but the low price and the support from the international market may limit the decline. The sugar price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [31][32]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: the international sugar price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term, and the Zhengzhou sugar is expected to oscillate in a large range. It is recommended to buy low and sell high according to the macro - sentiment; arbitrage: wait and see; options: sell a put option [32]. Black Metals Steel - **Important Information**: Most independent electric - arc - furnace steel mills will stop production in February. The US initial jobless claims were slightly higher than expected. This week, the production of the five major steel products increased, and the inventory accumulation accelerated. The construction steel demand declined, while the hot - rolled coil demand increased [56]. - **Logic Analysis**: The black - metal sector oscillated strongly at night. The steel price is affected by the market sentiment. The cost has support, but the winter demand decline and inventory accumulation limit the upward space of the steel price. It is expected to continue to oscillate following the macro - sentiment before the Spring Festival [56]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: oscillate following the market sentiment; arbitrage: short the hot - rolled coil to coking coal ratio and hold the short position of the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread; options: wait and see [57]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Important Information**: The coking coal online auction had a high non - trading rate, and the Mongolian coking coal market was strong, but the transaction was cold. The coke and coking coal warehouse - receipt prices are provided [58][59]. - **Logic Analysis**: The coking coal price increase on the disk is mainly driven by capital. Fundamentally, the supply is not tight, and the downstream winter - storage demand is weak. The spot price has cooled. The influence of fundamentals has decreased, and the capital and sentiment factors are more important. It is expected to be strong in the near future [59]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: be strong; hold long positions and consider buying on dips; arbitrage: wait and see; options: sell an out - of - the - money put option [60]. Non - ferrous Metals Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: The London gold and silver prices fluctuated greatly. The US stock market decline triggered a shock in the precious - metal market. The US dollar index also fluctuated [67]. - **Important Information**: Trump will announce the candidate for the Fed chairman next week, and there are geopolitical events such as the cease - fire in Ukraine and the Iranian naval exercise [67][68]. - **Logic Analysis**: The decline in the US stock market led to market panic and a tightening of market liquidity. The adjustment of gold and silver is mainly due to technical factors and risk release. The overall macro - logic has not changed [68][69]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: conservative investors should take profits at high prices, while aggressive investors can hold long positions cautiously; arbitrage: go long on the external market and short on the domestic market for silver; options: take profits on the bull - call spread strategy for gold and silver [69][72]. Copper - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai copper fell 2.03%, and the LME copper price rose 4.46%. The LME and COMEX copper inventories increased [76]. - **Important Information**: The concerns about AI investment returns have affected the copper price. The copper production in Zambia increased in 2025, while Southern Copper Corp. expects a decline in production in the next two years [76]. - **Logic Analysis**: The decline in the ore grade in Peru and the AI - related stock decline have affected the copper price. The LME inventory is expected to continue to increase, and the domestic market is in the inventory - accumulation stage. The copper price is expected to continue the upward trend, but the volatility will increase [77]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: aggressive investors can hold long positions above 105,000 - 106,000 yuan per ton; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [77][78]. Shipping Container Shipping - **Spot Situation**: The spot freight rate of the European line decreased. The 1/23 SCFI European line reported 1595 US dollars per TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 4.83%; the 1/26 SCFIS European line reported 1859.31 points, a month - on - month decrease of 4.9% [112]. - **Important Information**: There are geopolitical events such as Trump's executive order and the Iranian naval exercise [112]. - **Logic Analysis**: The demand for container shipping is declining, and the supply has a small - scale decrease. The traditional off - season is coming, and the rush - shipment is less than expected. The geopolitical situation is unstable, and the European line is difficult to resume large - scale shipping in the first half of the year [113]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: wait and see due to many short - term disturbances; arbitrage: take profits on most of the 6 - 10 calendar - spread long positions and hold a small part, and consider rolling operations on dips [115]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI crude oil futures rose 3.5% to 65.42 US dollars per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures rose 3.4% to 70.71 US dollars per barrel [117]. - **Related Information**: There are geopolitical events such as Trump's military order and the Iranian naval exercise. Venezuela reforms its petroleum law, and Saudi Aramco may lower the official selling price of crude oil to Asia in March [117]. - **Logic Analysis**: The military - conflict risk has increased, bringing a premium to the crude oil price. It is not recommended to chase high prices. The international oil price is expected to oscillate strongly, and the Brent main contract should focus on the 67 - 69 US - dollar range [118]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: hold long positions and do not chase high prices; arbitrage: the calendar spread is strong; options: wait and see [118]. Asphalt - **External - market Situation**: The WTI2603 and Brent2604 contracts rose. The BU2603 and BU2604 contracts in the night session also rose [119]. - **Important Information**: The spot price of asphalt in different regions has different trends. The demand is in the off - season, but the cost is supported by the crude oil price [120][121]. - **Logic Analysis**: The asphalt price follows the crude oil price to rise. The demand is weakening, but the low - inventory supply provides support. The raw - material price is rising [121]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: be strongly oscillating and pay attention to geopolitical fluctuations; arbitrage: wait and see; options: wait and see [122].

影响股市利好与利空消息 宏观新闻 1、国务院办公厅日前印发《加快培育服务消费新增长点工作方案》，其中提到，研究稳妥扩大单方面 免签、过境免签、区域性免签政策适用范围。其中还提到，鼓励地方结合消化存量房地产等政策落实， 支持旅居项目用地和服务设施建设。 2、商务部昨日举行例行新闻发布会。有记者提问称：美国贸易代表日前在达沃斯表示，在可能举行的 中美领导人会晤之前，中美双方有机会开启新一轮经贸谈判。新闻发言人何咏前表示，中方愿与美方共 同维护好、落实好两国元首重要共识，用好中美经贸磋商机制，管控分歧、推进合作，促进中美经贸关 系稳定、健康、可持续发展。 3、中英双方在英国首相斯塔默访华期间达成一系列积极成果，其中，中方将威士忌酒进口关税税率由 10%降至5%。 4、中国人民银行行长潘功胜1月28日会见了来访的高盛集团董事长兼首席执行官苏德巍。双方就全球经 济金融形势、中国宏观经济政策、中美经贸关系等议题进行了交流。 5、外交部发言人郭嘉昆昨日主持例行记者会。记者提问称，据报道，中国已批准进口首批英伟达的 H200人工智能芯片。郭嘉昆表示，具体问题建议向中方主管部门进行询问。 6、美国总统特朗普29日表示，鉴于严寒 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Inner Mongolia Market Supervision Administration has launched a special inspection campaign to identify and rectify safety hazards related to special equipment, emphasizing the importance of maintaining safety standards in various industries and public places [1][2]. Group 1: Inspection Details - The special action was conducted from January 24 to 28, involving five inspection teams led by senior officials from the Market Supervision Administration [1]. - The inspection covered 12 leagues and cities, focusing on key industries such as metallurgy, chemicals, energy, and construction materials, as well as crowded places like hospitals, schools, shopping malls, tourist attractions, and stations [1]. - A total of 43 special equipment usage units were inspected, with immediate feedback provided on identified issues, requiring companies to establish problem logs and implement corrective actions [1]. Group 2: Equipment and Compliance Focus - The inspection targeted eight categories of special equipment, including pressure vessels, boilers, pressure pipelines, elevators, lifting machinery, specialized vehicles, large amusement facilities, and passenger cableways [1]. - Key compliance areas included the legality of equipment, usage registration, regular inspections, daily maintenance, and the fulfillment of responsibilities by enterprises and regulatory departments [1].

1月29日晚，大宗商品上演大反转行情。 另外，伦敦金属交易所(LME)三个月期铜一度大涨10.32%，随后也跳水，收窄涨幅，截至发稿，报14105美元/吨。 布伦特原油突破70美元/桶关口，现报70.33美元/桶；WTI原油日内涨幅达4.7%，报66.2美元/桶。 消息面上，据央视新闻报道，美国方面28日消息，美国总统特朗普被曝"正考虑对伊朗发动新的重大打击"。 29日晚国际金价、银价一度保持大涨，现货白银日内涨幅一度达3.5%，报120.76美元/盎司，现货黄金一度大涨2%。 不过，接近午夜行情急转直下，现货金银开始大幅跳水，现货黄金连续跌破5400美元、5300美元、5200美元三道关口，截至发稿，跌幅5%，报5135美元/ 盎司；现货白银大跌7.82%，现报107.5美元/盎司。 国际油价大涨。 据消息人士称，特朗普正在考虑的选项包括空袭伊朗领导人和安全官员，以及袭击伊朗核设施和政府机构，但尚未做出最终决定。自美国海军"亚伯拉罕· 林肯"号航空母舰打击群在相关地区部署以来，他的军事选项范围已经扩大。 当地时间1月29日，俄罗斯总统普京在克里姆林宫同到访的阿联酋总统穆罕默德·本·扎耶德·阿勒纳哈扬举行会谈 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's recent quarterly earnings report slightly exceeded market expectations, but the actual operational data is underwhelming, leading analysts to conclude that Tesla currently lacks investment value [2][3]. Financial Performance - Revenue and profit metrics slightly surpassed market consensus, but the overall performance is disappointing, with a year-over-year revenue decline in Q4 [3]. - Q4 revenue dropped 11% year-over-year, with a more significant 17% decline quarter-over-quarter, primarily due to weak automotive sales [3][6]. - Adjusted EBITDA margin fell from 16.9% to 16.7%, indicating a continuous decline in profit margins [7]. - Q4 earnings per share (EPS) dropped 60% year-over-year under GAAP, and adjusted EPS fell 17% [7]. Cash Flow and Capital Expenditure - Operating cash flow for Q4 was $3.8 billion, down over 20% year-over-year, while free cash flow decreased by 30% to $1.4 billion [8]. - The projected annual free cash flow is between $5 billion and $6 billion, resulting in a historical free cash flow P/E ratio of approximately 250 times [8][10]. - Despite a year-over-year decrease in capital expenditures, free cash flow still declined, raising concerns about the sustainability of growth plans [9]. Market Position and Valuation - Tesla's automotive revenue is declining while the energy business, which grew 25% year-over-year, is too small to offset the automotive downturn [6][10]. - Analysts believe Tesla is significantly overvalued, with a historical free cash flow P/E ratio of 250 times and a P/E ratio of about 400 times based on the last 12 months' earnings [10]. - The company's future growth is heavily reliant on the autonomous taxi and robotics sectors, where it lags behind competitors like Waymo [10][11]. Analyst Sentiment - Analysts maintain a bearish outlook on Tesla, citing the struggles in its core automotive business and the lack of progress in its future ventures as reasons for skepticism [12].

转自：海口发布 民生保障和生态环境保护等关键领域 其中包括新建湛江至海口铁路 海口经济圈规模化供水工程 海口市横沟村城市更新项目等 日前 《海南省2026年重大项目投资计划》发布 根据投资计划 2026年海南共安排 省重大项目470个、预备项目160个 覆盖基础设施建设、产业发展 2026年，海南安排省重大项目470个，总投资7175亿元，年度计划投资1280亿元。按建设阶段划分：竣 工项目92个，总投资910亿元，年度计划投资211亿元，占17%；续建项目265个，总投资5354亿元，年 度计划投资849亿元，占66%；新开工项目113个，总投资911亿元，年度计划投资220亿元，占17%。 这些项目紧密服务自贸港建设需要，涵盖交通、能源、产业升级及公共服务等多方面。其中包括新建湛 江至海口铁路、海南商业航天发射场能力提升项目、海口经济圈规模化供水工程、海口市横沟村城市更 新项目、海南东方CZ8场址50万千瓦海上风电项目、海南思可源30万吨/年生物能源项目、G98环岛高速 公路大三亚段扩容工程等一系列标志性工程，将有效夯实自贸港硬件基础、培育现代化产业体系。 此外，投资计划还安排了160个预备项目，总投资2 ...

硬·AI 作者 | 李 丹 编辑 | 硬 AI 特斯拉四季度营收由三季度的两位数同比大增转为下滑，电动车交付量连续第二年下滑，成为营收与汽车毛利承压的主要原因，但EPS盈利高于预期，能源与 服务业务继续放量，披露投资xAI、无人驾驶出租车Robotaxi等"物理 AI"相关业务的进展。 盘后公布财报后，股价盘后跳涨，盘后涨幅曾超过4%。盘后上涨更像是源于特斯拉短期的业绩并没有太差，长期的叙事——Robotaxi/Optimus/xAI方面继续给 估值提供想象空间。业绩电话会上，特斯拉高管称2026年全年资本支出将超过200亿美元。此后股价曾回吐盘后多数涨幅。 汽车业务拖累特斯拉四季度的总营收由增转降，但储能部署装机量创纪录，应被市场视为短期内对冲汽车端下行的"硬支撑"。更重要的是，特斯拉强调"物理 AI"的进展与AI领域相关投资。 Q4特斯拉营收同比由增转降3%、略低于预期、首次年度营收下滑，当季EPS盈利降17%仍强于预期，毛利率升破20%，储能部署增29%至新高14.2GWh；1月开始在奥斯汀限量提 供无安全监督员的Robotaxi；Cybercab、Semi卡车、储能系统Megapack 3均按计划今年 ...