2025 年全球股票和债券市场的表现如何？ 2025 深度复盘，2026 策略前瞻 20151223 摘要 2025 年 A 股和港股市场结构分化明显，成长风格优于价值风格。A 股 有色金属和 TMT 板块涨幅居前，内需消费和房地产链板块表现落后。港 股医药行业，尤其是创新药表现优异，优于 A 股。 2025 年国内大宗商品螺纹钢价格走弱，债券市场整体震荡偏弱，利率 波动上行，与过去 7 年牛市形成对比。人民币兑美元汇率整体贬值，但 预计未来将维持强势。 中国出口目标国家多元化趋势明显，对"一带一路"沿线国家出口增长 显著，对美国出口占比持续下降，表明中国正积极调整出口策略应对国 际贸易环境变化。 2025 年中国经济呈现交易现实偏弱、预期较强的状态。商品价格疲软 反映宏观经济基本面承压，股票市场更关注未来预期，经济正经历复杂 调整。 展望 2026 年，中国宏观经济预计保持平稳，决策层对经济增速的诉求 维持在 5%左右，不太可能推出强刺激政策，倾向于结构优化和缓解内 卷。 Q&A 港股市场受全球流动性环境变化影响，南向资金流入形成一定支撑。港 股基本面与中国经济相关，估值受流动性和风险偏好决定，与 A 股同 ...

制造业 PMI 小幅回升至 49.2%，非制造业商务活动指数降至 49.5%。 国际机构上调对中国 2025 年和 2026 年经济增长预期，工业转型升级 取得进展，但内需不足和收入乐观程度下降构成挑战。 政策建议包括：生产端优化提升传统产业，培育壮大新兴产业；投资端 扩大有效投资，激发民间投资活力；消费端提升居民消费能力，推进新 消费培育。短期财政政策应兜牢基层"三保"底线，规范税收优惠及财 政补贴政策。 预计 2026 年全球经济增速与 2025 年持平，中国 GDP 增长目标可设定 为 4.5%-5.0%。宏观政策将继续实施积极财政政策和适度宽松货币政 策。应重视科技创新与产业深度融合，培育科技企业家，并通过高科技 发展带动就业和民生改善。 包括：内需动能不足拖累整体生产，但外需扩张对 11 月生产端形成主要拉动 力量；冬季供暖需求推动采矿业增速提升，当月煤炭开采和洗选业同比增速为 7.5%；装备制造业占比持续提升，工业结构不断优化，其中电子、汽车行业增 速分别为 9.2%和 11.9%；高技术制造业引领工业高质量发展，规模以上高技 术制造业增加值同比增长 8.4%。 稳中求进、行稳致远的中国宏观经济 ...

2026 年 A 股投资展望：中国资产价值重估 慢牛强化再上台阶 2025 年 12 月 24 日 年度策略 专题报告 投资风格有望从结构性到均衡：展望 2026 年，随着刺激消费政策逐步落地，成长和周期大幅超越其他风格的局面有望改善。 随着经济进入恢复性增长，消费复苏是大概率事件，大金融随着业绩持续改善尤其是非银金融的崛起，估值有望提升。节奏 东 兴 策 略 东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 主要观点： 中国资产价值重估空间巨大。2025 年中国股市走出慢牛行情，其本质是中国资产重估的过程。2021 年开始中国进入地产下 行周期，中国经济进入资产挤泡沫阶段，政府与居民资产负债表的资产端下行压力明显增加，中国资产整体进入新旧动能转 换期。中国产业结构发生了较大的变化，第三产业占比日益提升，低端制造业逐步迁移到海外低成本地区，本土经济正在向 高附加值的服务业转变。从产业增速可以看出，从 2017 年开始房地产进入下行周期，传统制造业进入增速下行通道，虽然 受到疫情影响短暂反弹，总体还是维持低增速状态，只有代表新质生产力的信息技术方向长期保持两位数增长。从 A 股 2025 年各个行 ...

最低只需1年社保或个税缴纳，北京重磅出手！ 据北京市住房和城乡建设委员会消息，12月24日，北京市住房城乡建设委等4部门联合印发《关于进一 步优化调整本市房地产相关政策的通知》，《通知》明确为更好满足居民刚性住房需求和多样化改善性 住房需求，进一步优化调整住房限购政策。一是放宽非京籍家庭购房条件。将非京籍家庭购买五环内商 品住房的社保或个税缴纳年限，由现行的"3年"调减为"2年"；购买五环外商品住房的，由现行的"2 年"调减为"1年"。二是支持多子女家庭住房需求。二孩及以上的多子女家庭，可在五环内多购买一套商 品住房，即：京籍多子女家庭，可在五环内购买3套商品住房；在京连续2年缴纳社保或个税的非京籍多 子女家庭，可在五环内购买2套商品住房。通知自2025年12月24日起施行。 10月28日，《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》全文发布。《建议》中 关于房地产部分提到加快构建房地产发展新模式、优化保障性住房供给、因城施策增加改善性住房供 给、建立房屋全生命周期安全管理制度等内容，同时在消费部分提出要"清理汽车、住房等消费不合理 限制性措施"。 58安居客研究院院长张波认为，当下国内居民住 ...

编辑 白爽 校对 张彦君 新京报讯（记者曹晶瑞）12月24日，市住房城乡建设委、市发展改革委、人民银行北京市分行、北京住 房公积金管理中心等4部门联合印发《关于进一步优化调整本市房地产相关政策的通知》（以下简称 《通知》），自2025年12月24日起施行。通知明确，商业性住房贷款利率将不再区分首套住房和二套住 房。 首套房贷和二套房贷执行不同的利率。目前，北京地区商贷首套房贷利率为3.05%，购买五环内二套房 商贷利率为3.45%，五环外二套房贷为3.25%。此次调整后，首套房贷和二套房贷利率将不再区分，具 体利率多少，由银行根据利率定价机制安排，不得低于首套房贷利率。 ...

12月24日，港股市场早盘走势分化，下午开始因圣诞节，本周提前交易收官，下周一开市。中证港股通高股息指数半日收跌0.42%，截至 15:00，港股红利ETF基金（513820）收跌0.08%，溢价持续走阔，尾盘达0.73%，或反映买盘活跃！资金借道ETF持续布局股息率优势明显的港 股红利资产，港股红利ETF基金（513820）已连续17日强势吸金超6亿元，基金最新规模超43亿元，在同指数ETF中大幅领先！ 【哑铃策略另一端：港股红利配置价值怎么看？】 （仅能客观列示溢价率，并注明风险提示：特此提示投资者关注二级市场交易价格溢价风险，若盲目投资溢价率过高产品，可能遭受重大损 失。） 港股红利ETF基金（513820）标的指数成分股多数收跌，汇丰控股逆势涨超1%，光大环境涨0.61%，农业银行涨0.18%，中国财险、中国电信、 中国联通等回调。 【港股红利ETF基金（513820）标的指数前十大成分股】 | 序号 | 代码 | 名称 | 申万一级行业 | 涨跌幅 | 估算权重 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 2328 | 中国财险 | 非银会融 | -0 ...

当前，我国城镇化正从快速发展期转向稳定发展期，城市发展正从大规模增量扩张阶段转向存量提质增 效为主的阶段，房地产市场供求关系发生重大变化，房地产发展必须适应新阶段新变化。房地产产业链 长、关联度高，必须处理好促发展和防风险的关系。要着力稳定房地产市场，因城施策控增量、去库 存、优供给，鼓励收购存量商品房重点用于保障性住房等。要深化住房公积金制度改革，有序推动"好 房子"建设。要坚持防范风险、强化监管和创新发展模式相协调，加快构建房地产发展新模式，加快推 动房地产业转型升级，建立风险防控长效机制，扎实推动房地产高质量发展。 习近平总书记强调："在中国式现代化进程中，不仅有风和日丽，也会有疾风骤雨甚至惊涛骇浪。"实现 明年经济社会发展目标任务，要求我们以历史主动精神克难关、战风险、迎挑战，集中力量办好自己的 事。让我们更加紧密团结在以习近平同志为核心的党中央周围，保持战略定力，增强必胜信心，积极识 变应变求变，进一步打好防范和抵御风险的有准备之战，打好化险为夷、转危为机的战略主动战，以新 安全格局保障新发展格局，奋力推动中国经济航船劈波斩浪、行稳致远。 "十五五"时期我国发展环境面临深刻复杂变化，我国发展处于战略 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Stock index: Bullish [6] Core View of the Report - The report is cautiously optimistic about China's macro - economy in 2026 but positive about the A - share market. It predicts that the A - share market will shift from valuation - driven to a mode of both valuation and profit contribution, with an expected annual index increase of about 10%. The long - term bull market in A - shares may continue throughout the "14th Five - Year Plan" period [4][103]. Summary by Directory 1. 2025 Year Review: A Feast of Equities - In 2025, it was a feast for equity assets globally. Global stock markets generally rose, supported by three common factors: global fiscal and monetary "double - easing", the AI industry trend, and the "de - dollarization" narrative [16]. - In China's A - share market, it showed a diverse and hot state. Most indices rose by over 20%, with micro - cap stocks performing best. The significant difference in performance between micro - cap stocks and blue - chip weight indices was mainly due to institutional behavior and capital attributes [24]. 2. 2026 Domestic Macroeconomic Outlook: Moderate Recovery and Deepening Differentiation 2.1 Exports: Room for Surplus Remains, and Resilience Continues in 2026 - In 2025, China's exports grew strongly, with a trade surplus reaching a record high. The market has debated the balance of the trade surplus, but China's trade surplus/GDP still has room to expand [30][31]. - In 2026, although global demand may slow down, China's active economic and trade policies and the certainty of Chinese enterprises going global will support exports. The export growth rate is predicted to be around 3 - 4% [42]. 2.2 Real Estate: In the Stock Era with Moderate Policies, It May Still Decline in 2026 - The real estate industry has entered the stock era, with the housing supply approaching saturation. It still has a strong financial attribute, and the pessimistic market expectations may lead to a continued decline in 2026 [43][45]. - The continuous adjustment of the real estate industry will affect residents' wealth and total demand, putting pressure on domestic demand [50]. 2.3 Fiscal Policy: Small - scale Total Growth and Possible Structural Re - equilibrium - In 2025, China's fiscal policy was more active, with an increased deficit rate and special bonds. The fiscal expenditure structure shifted towards people - oriented investment, weakening investment in infrastructure [56][58]. - In 2026, the fiscal policy will maintain an active tone but with limited expansion. The structure may be re - balanced, and the pace will be front - loaded, with obvious guidance on industrial policies [62]. 2.4 Monetary Policy: Limited Easing Space, More Focus on Flexibility and Precision - In 2025, the central bank's monetary easing had limited impact on credit expansion. Constrained by factors such as low corporate returns and high mortgage rates, the central bank's further interest rate cuts are restricted [63]. - In 2026, the central bank will maintain a loose policy, use various policy tools more flexibly, and support industrial upgrading and domestic demand expansion [69]. 2.5 Inflation: The Contradiction between Capacity Reduction and Capacity Increase - In 2026, China's industrial production capacity is still in a state of over - supply. The "anti - involution" policy aims to reduce capacity, but it faces challenges in implementation [71][73]. - At the same time, new fixed - asset investments will increase production capacity. On the consumer side, the expansion of service consumption will support CPI. It is predicted that PPI will recover to around - 1% and CPI to around 0.8% [74][81]. 3. 2026 Stock Index Outlook: The Long - term Bull Market Continues - The current A - share market valuation is not low, and the space for further valuation expansion in 2026 is limited, with the target P/E ratio estimated to be between 20 - 24x [96]. - It is predicted that the profit growth rates of the entire A - share market, non - financial stocks, and financial stocks in 2026 will be 4.5%, 8.4%, and 1.0% respectively, showing an N - shaped trend throughout the year [100]. - In terms of capital preferences, technology stocks and blue - chip growth stocks are expected to outperform in 2026 [102]. 4. Investment Advice: Continue to Hold the Long - Position Strategy for Stock Indices - Be cautiously optimistic about China's macro - economy in 2026 but positive about the A - share market. The long - term bull market in A - shares will continue, and the long - position strategy is recommended [4][103]. - Favor the CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) with a high proportion of technology stocks and the SSE 50 Index Futures (IF) with more blue - chip stocks. The performance of the CSI 500 Index Futures (IC) may be weaker in 2026 [105].

Core Viewpoint - The year 2026 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for the awakening of value in China's capital market, moving towards a low-volatility and high-Sharpe ratio investment phase [1][6][26]. Economic Outlook - China's economy is expected to emerge from its low point and enter a recovery phase, with exports remaining a key support for macroeconomic performance in 2026 [1][30]. - Despite overall external demand pressure, China's manufacturing competitiveness remains intact, particularly in the midstream sector, which is expected to show resilience in exports [1][30]. - CPI is likely to trend positively, with a high certainty of turning positive, reflecting the ongoing recovery in domestic demand [1][30][33]. - PPI is expected to show an upward trend, but its year-on-year positive growth needs to be verified in the second quarter [1][30][37]. Policy Perspective - Macro policies are shifting away from "extraordinary" measures, focusing instead on stabilizing expectations and supporting economic operations [2][26]. - The emphasis will be on sustainable policy adjustments rather than large-scale stimulus, with a focus on balancing short-term and long-term goals [2][27]. Asset Allocation Insights - In 2026, a "dual bull market" in stocks and bonds is unlikely; the focus will be on asymmetric volatility between the two asset classes [2][5]. - Investors are encouraged to consider undervalued, high-dividend sectors for allocation, while speculative funds should target industries with high capacity utilization and limited capital expenditure [2][5]. Sector-Specific Analysis - The midstream manufacturing sector is identified as the most certain area of prosperity for 2026, supported by enhanced export competitiveness and the implementation of anti-involution policies [5][30]. - The return on equity (ROE) in midstream manufacturing is expected to stabilize and improve, with PPI year-on-year growth anticipated to stop declining in the first half of the year [5][30]. Market Dynamics - The trend of residents moving their savings into financial assets is expected to continue, although risk appetite may not rise rapidly [2][5]. - The stock market's trading volume is projected to remain high but may not see significant increases compared to previous years [2][5]. Price Trends - The housing market's recovery is contingent on mortgage rates being lower than rental yields, which is a critical condition for stabilizing property prices [5][40]. - The relationship between mortgage rates and rental yields is highlighted as a key indicator for predicting housing price stabilization [5][40].

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 中国武夷实业股份有限公司（以下简称公司）于2023年12月6日召开了第七届董事会第三十五次会议、 第七届监事会第二十五次会议审议通过《关于控股子公司北京武夷向股东借出资金的议案》，公司控股 子公司北京武夷房地产开发有限公司（以下简称北京武夷）按权益比例采用借款的方式向公司和金融街 长安（北京）置业有限公司（以下简称长安置业）借出富余资金不超过20亿元，具体内容详见公司于 2023年12月7日在巨潮资讯网披露的《关于控股子公司北京武夷向股东借出资金的公告》（公告编号： 2023-128）。该事项已经公司2023年第三次临时股东大会审议通过，具体内容详见公司于2023年12月23 日在巨潮资讯网披露的《2023年第三次临时股东大会决议公告》（公告编号：2023-136）。 特此公告。 2023年12月26日，北京武夷与公司和长安置业分别签订《借款合同》，2023年12月27日，北京武夷向公 司和长安置业支付第一批借款合计5.5亿元，其中向长安置业支付1.65亿元；2024年1月15日，北京武夷 向公司和长安置业支付第二批借款合计3.8亿元，其中向长安置业支付1.1 ...