Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices fell, with Brent's October contract down 2.17%. From August 27, the US imposed a 25% tariff on India for buying Russian oil. Indian refineries' Russian oil purchases are expected to drop from 1.8 million barrels per day in the first half of the year to 1.4 - 1.6 million barrels per day after October. Before geopolitical risks further escalate, crude oil may enter a sideways trend [1]. Precious Metals - Overnight, precious metals trended sideways with an upward bias. The market has priced in a September Fed rate cut, but the future economic direction remains uncertain. Trump's dismissal of Fed officials has reignited concerns about the Fed's independence, which may further erode the US dollar's credit. Maintain a strategy of buying on dips [2]. Copper - Overnight, LME copper closed higher, while SHFE copper traded sideways below 79,500 yuan. The decline in US durable goods orders in July was better than expected, and consumer confidence remained weak. Hold short positions at high levels [3]. Aluminum - Overnight, SHFE aluminum rose. At the beginning of the week, social inventories of aluminum ingots increased by 20,000 tons, and aluminum rods by 9,000 tons compared to last Thursday. In the short - term, SHFE aluminum will test the resistance around 21,000 yuan [4]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of SHFE aluminum. The spot price of Baotai was raised to 20,200 yuan. There is room for the cross - variety spread between the spot and SHFE aluminum to further narrow [5]. Alumina - The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, and both industry inventory and SHFE warehouse receipts are rising. It is in a weak sideways trend, with support at the 3,000 - yuan level [6]. Zinc - The increase in global zinc mine supply is being realized, and TC continues to rise. Wait for short - selling opportunities after a rebound [7]. Lead - Due to weak demand, the rebound momentum is weak. However, the decline space is also limited [8]. Silver and Stainless Steel - SHFE silver rebounded slightly, with dull market trading. Technically, silver prices still show an intention to rebound, but the fundamentals are weak. Look for short - selling opportunities [8]. Tin - Overnight, both domestic and overseas tin prices rose, breaking through the integer - level resistance. It is expected that tin prices still have the potential to rise in the short term [9]. Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate corrected, and market trading volume shrank. Adopt a bullish approach with risk control [10]. Industrial Silicon - The futures price of industrial silicon decreased with reduced positions. In the short term, the price is under pressure due to emotional factors. Observe the support at 8,300 yuan per ton [11]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures continued to trade sideways. In the short term, it is expected to maintain a range - bound trend. Continue to buy on dips [12]. Iron Ore - Overnight, the iron ore futures market traded sideways. Overall, the supply - demand situation of iron ore is weakening marginally, and it is expected to trade in a high - level range [14]. Coke - The intraday price of coke declined. In the short term, the price volatility is high. Observe the support at the previous low [15]. Coking Coal - The intraday price of coking coal declined. In the short term, the price volatility is high. Observe the support at the previous low [16]. Manganese Silicon - The intraday price of manganese silicon was in a weak sideways trend. Observe the support at the previous low [17]. Ferrosilicon - The intraday price of ferrosilicon was in a weak sideways trend. It mainly follows the trend of manganese silicon [18]. Shipping Index (European Line) - The spot market for shipping continues to decline. The spot price is expected to continue to fall [19]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Overnight, oil prices tumbled. The LU - FU spread is expected to continue to narrow [20]. Asphalt - Overnight, oil prices tumbled, but the decline of BU was limited. Low inventory levels support both the futures and spot prices of asphalt [21]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The international market rebounded supported by import demand. The futures market shows a pattern of near - term strength and far - term weakness [22]. Urea - Urea futures prices were in a weak sideways trend, and spot prices continued to fall. In the short term, it is expected to continue to trade in a low - level range [23]. Methanol - Methanol prices continued to fall overnight. Pay attention to the macro atmosphere and the possibility of the restart of coastal MTO plants [24]. Pure Benzene - Pure benzene prices continued to trade in a narrow range overnight. In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand situation may continue to be under pressure [25]. Styrene - The cost - side support has slightly improved, but there is no upward impetus. There is still an expectation of inventory accumulation [26]. Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - The inventory pressure of propylene producers is not significant, but downstream demand has weakened. The supply of polyethylene and polypropylene is expected to increase slightly [27]. PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC is in a sideways trend. The price of caustic soda has fallen from a high level. The current price is not cost - effective for chasing long positions [28]. PX and PTA - Overnight, PX continued its strong trend, while PTA had a weak rebound. Pay attention to the actual dynamics of the plants, the direction of oil prices, and the pace of polyester capacity utilization increase [28]. Ethylene Glycol - Ethylene glycol is trading sideways around 4,500 yuan per ton. In the short term, it is relatively strong [29]. Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - The supply - demand situation of short - fiber is stable, driven by cost. Consider a long - position allocation if demand improvement is realized in the medium term. The bottle - chip industry faces long - term over - capacity pressure [30]. Glass - The spot price of glass is facing a weak reality of decline. Given the current low valuation and positive macro policies, the downward space of futures prices is limited [31]. 20 - Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber - International crude oil futures prices tumbled, while the price of Thai raw materials was stable with a slight increase. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [32]. Soda Ash - The supply of soda ash fluctuates slightly. In the long term, the supply of soda ash remains under high pressure. Consider short - selling at high rebounds [33]. Group 2: Agricultural Products Soybeans and Soybean Meal - As of the week of August 24, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 69%. In the medium - to - long term, there is a cautious bullish view on domestic soybean meal futures [34]. Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - The market has positive expectations for China - US trade negotiations. Consider buying soybean and palm oil on dips in the medium - to - long term [35]. Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed sector is in a short - term sideways consolidation pattern, and the price center may shift downward [36]. Soybean No. 1 - The price of Soybean No. 1 showed a weak decline. Domestic soybeans need to continue to pay attention to policies and the performance of imported soybeans in the short term [37]. Corn - The Dalian corn futures may continue to operate weakly at the bottom [38]. Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs is weak, and the futures market follows the spot trend. The pig price is expected to remain weak in the medium term [39]. Eggs - Egg futures are in a weak trend. The probability of significant capacity reduction in the second half of this year is increasing. Consider buying futures contracts for the first half of next year on dips [40]. Cotton - US cotton prices tumbled yesterday. Operate by buying on dips for Zhengzhou cotton [41]. Sugar - Overnight, US sugar prices traded sideways. It is expected that sugar prices will maintain a sideways trend [42]. Apples - Apple futures prices are in a sideways trend. The market's trading focus has shifted to the new - season yield estimate. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [43]. Wood - Wood futures prices are in a sideways trend. The supply - demand situation has improved, but the peak - season demand has not started. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [44]. Pulp - Pulp futures prices continued to fall yesterday. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy or trade within the range [45]. Group 3: Financial Products Stock Index - Yesterday, the broader market traded in a narrow range with reduced volume. Maintain an increased allocation to the technology - growth sector, and also pay attention to opportunities in the consumption and cyclical sectors [46]. Treasury Bonds - Treasury bond futures closed higher across the board. It is expected that the probability of a steeper yield curve will increase [47]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyester Industry - PX: Supply is expected to increase as maintenance devices restart, but demand may weaken. However, with the approaching peak season, the demand may strengthen. Short - term PX11 can be overweighted in the chemical sector, and the PX - SC spread can be widened [2]. - PTA: Supply is affected by planned outages due to low processing fees, but demand may pick up. It can be overweighted in the chemical sector, and TA1 - 5 may show a positive spread repair in the short - term [2]. - Ethylene Glycol: Domestic supply increases, port inventory is low, and demand is expected to improve. Short - term put option EG2601 - P - 4350 sellers can hold [2]. - Short - fiber: Supply increases as maintenance devices restart, and demand may improve with the approaching peak season, but the sustainability of downstream restocking is weak. PF10 can be overweighted in the chemical sector [2]. - Bottle - chip: In the peak consumption season, production cuts lead to inventory reduction, but the cost increase suppresses processing fees. PR is similar to PTA, and the main contract processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [2]. Polyolefin Industry - PP: The price center moves down, and the weighted profit is compressed. The supply and demand both increase, achieving de - stocking. The LPO1 spread can be held [7]. - PE: The price is stable with a downward trend. High - maintenance continues until September, and the upstream shows de - stocking while the mid - stream accumulates inventory [7]. Methanol Industry - The valuation is neutral. The inland supply is high, but low inventory supports the price. The demand may improve as some MTO devices are expected to restart. The 01 contract may see a balance improvement after mid - September [9]. Chlor - alkali Industry - Caustic Soda: The spot price is expected to continue to rise steadily, but the short - term futures may face resistance. It is recommended to take profit on previous long positions [34]. - PVC: The cost - driven effect weakens, and the supply is expected to increase while the demand is weak. It is advisable to short at high prices [34]. Crude Oil Industry - The short - term oil price is affected by macro risks, geopolitical factors, and supply uncertainties. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side, and look for opportunities to widen the option spread after the volatility increases [38]. Urea Industry - The supply expands while the demand is weak, dragging down the price. Attention should be paid to the start time and intensity of autumn fertilizer preparation and the change in urea procurement by compound fertilizer enterprises [40]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Pure Benzene: The supply is sufficient, and the fundamental improvement is marginal. BZ2603 should follow the fluctuations of oil price and styrene [43]. - Styrene: The demand is expected to improve, but the high supply and inventory pressure prices. EB10 can be shorted in the short - term [43]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Polyester Industry Upstream Prices - Brent crude oil (October) decreased by 2.3% to $67.22/barrel, WTI crude oil (October) increased by 0.3% to $63.44/barrel, and CFR Japan naphtha increased by 1.2% to $600/ton [2]. Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows - POY150/48 price decreased by 1.58% to $6845/ton, and its cash flow decreased by 32.2% [2]. PX - related Prices and Spreads - CFR China PX increased by 0.6% to $864/ton, and PX spot price (RMB) decreased by 0.5% [2]. PTA - related Prices and Spreads - PTA East China spot price increased by 0.4% to 4870 yuan/ton, and PTA spot processing fee decreased by 3.7% [2]. MEG - related Prices and Spreads - MEG East China spot price increased by 0.2% to 4553 yuan/ton, and MEG port inventory decreased by 4.7% [2]. Polyester Industry Chain Operating Rates - Asian PX operating rate decreased by 2.2% to 76.3%, and PTA operating rate increased by 4.4% to 76.0% [2]. Polyolefin Industry Prices - L2601 closed at 7402 yuan/ton, down 0.28%; PP2601 closed at 7046 yuan/ton, down 0.40% [7]. Operating Rates - PE device operating rate decreased by 6.5% to 78.7%, and PP device operating rate increased by 0.4% to 78.2% [7]. Inventories - PE enterprise inventory increased by 12.91% to 50.2 million tons, and PP enterprise inventory decreased by 2.59% to 57.2 million tons [7]. Methanol Industry Prices and Spreads - MA2601 closed at 2395 yuan/ton, down 1.2%; MA2509 closed at 2272 yuan/ton, down 1.56% [9]. Inventories - Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 5.15% to 29.5573 million tons, and methanol port inventory increased by 5.3% to 107.6 million tons [9]. Operating Rates - Upstream domestic enterprise operating rate increased by 0.52% to 73.01%, and downstream MTO device operating rate remained unchanged at 76.92% [9]. Chlor - alkali Industry PVC and Caustic Soda Spot & Futures - Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda equivalent price remained unchanged at 2687.5 yuan/ton; V2509 decreased by 0.8% to 4854 yuan/ton [34]. Caustic Soda Overseas Quotes & Export Profits - FOB East China port decreased by 2.6% to $380/ton, and export profit decreased by 162.2% [34]. PVC Overseas Quotes & Export Profits - CFR Southeast Asia remained unchanged at $680/ton, and export profit decreased by 5.4% [34]. Supply and Demand - Caustic soda industry operating rate decreased by 1.4% to 86.1%, and PVC total operating rate decreased by 4.8% to 75.0% [34]. Crude Oil Industry Crude Oil Prices and Spreads - Brent decreased by 2.3% to $67.22/barrel, WTI increased by 0.3% to $63.44/barrel, and SC increased by 1.34% to 500.1 yuan/barrel [38]. Refined Oil Prices and Spreads - NYM RBOB increased by 0.73% to 213.77 cents/gallon, and ICE Gasoil decreased by 2.25% to $674.5/ton [38]. Refined Oil Cracking Spreads - US gasoline cracking spread decreased by 2.42% to $26.34/barrel, and European diesel cracking spread decreased by 5.07% to $26.9/barrel [38]. Urea Industry Futures Prices and Spreads - 01 contract decreased by 0.67% to 1777 yuan/ton, and 05 contract decreased by 0.46% to 1737 yuan/ton [40]. Upstream Raw Materials - Anthracite small pieces (Jincheng) remained unchanged at 900 yuan/ton, and动力煤坑口 (伊金霍洛旗) decreased by 1.94% to 505 yuan/ton [40]. Downstream Products - Melamine (Shandong) remained unchanged at 5225 yuan/ton, and compound fertilizer 45%S (Henan) remained unchanged at 2930 yuan/ton [40]. Supply and Demand - Domestic urea daily output decreased by 0.81% to 19.52 million tons, and urea production enterprise operating rate decreased by 0.81% to 84.33% [40]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry Upstream Prices and Spreads - Brent crude oil (October) decreased by 2.3% to $67.22/barrel, CFR China pure benzene decreased by 0.1% to $750/ton [43]. Styrene - related Prices and Spreads - Styrene East China spot price decreased by 1.2% to 7260 yuan/ton, and EB futures 2510 decreased by 1.0% to 7257 yuan/ton [43]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Downstream Cash Flows - Phenol cash flow decreased by 3.6% to - 544 yuan/ton, and PS cash flow decreased by 26.7% to - 150 yuan/ton [43]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventories - Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 4.2% to 13.8 million tons, and styrene Jiangsu port inventory increased by 10.8% to 17.9 million tons [43]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry Chain Operating Rates - Asian pure benzene operating rate increased by 2.9% to 77.9%, and domestic styrene operating rate increased by 0.4% to 78.2% [43].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market may experience increased short - term volatility after recent continuous rises, but the general strategy is to go long on dips. In the bond market, there is still room for interest rates to decline, but it may return to a volatile pattern in the short term. For precious metals, it is recommended to go long on silver on dips. For most non - ferrous metals, prices are expected to be volatile with a slightly upward trend. In the black building materials sector, steel products face weak demand, while iron ore is expected to be volatile. For energy chemicals, the trends vary by product, and for agricultural products, different products have different outlooks based on supply and demand [3][6][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Financial 3.1.1 Stock Index - Policy: The State Council released an opinion on implementing the "Artificial Intelligence +" action, aiming for over 70% penetration of new - generation intelligent terminals by 2027 [2]. - Fund Scale: In July, the scale of money funds increased by over 38 billion yuan, stock funds by over 19 billion yuan, and hybrid funds by over 13 billion yuan, while bond funds decreased by over 4.6 billion yuan [2]. - Company Performance: Cambrian achieved an operating income of 2.881 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year - on - year increase of 4347.82%, and a net profit of 1.038 billion yuan, turning a profit year - on - year [2]. - International Data: US durable goods orders in July decreased by 2.8% month - on - month, better than the expected 4% decline [2]. - Trading Logic: The market may be volatile in the short term but the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [3]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - Market Performance: On Tuesday, TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts all rose [4]. - News: Trump fired Fed governor Lisa Cook, and Guangdong plans to issue 2.5 billion yuan of offshore RMB local government bonds in Macau [4]. - Liquidity: The central bank conducted 40.58 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 17.45 billion yuan [5][6]. - Strategy: Interest rates may decline in the long term but the bond market may be volatile in the short term [6]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals - Market Performance: Shanghai gold rose 0.21%, Shanghai silver fell 0.30%, COMEX gold rose 0.24%, and COMEX silver rose 0.22% [7]. - Market Outlook: US economic data pressured precious metals prices in the short term, but Trump's action may lead the Fed to turn dovish. It is recommended to go long on silver on dips [7][8]. 3.2 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.2.1 Copper - Market Performance: LME copper rose 0.38%, and Shanghai copper closed at 79,420 yuan/ton [10]. - Industry Situation: LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic copper supply is expected to be in a slightly surplus situation. Copper prices are expected to be volatile and slightly upward [10]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - Market Performance: LME aluminum rose 0.63%, and Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,880 yuan/ton [11]. - Industry Situation: Domestic aluminum inventory is low, and demand is expected to improve. Aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and slightly upward [11]. 3.2.3 Zinc - Market Performance: Shanghai zinc index fell 0.52%, and LME zinc rose [12]. - Industry Situation: Zinc ore inventory is rising, but the dovish Fed statement strengthens the support for zinc prices. Zinc prices are expected to be volatile in the short term [12][13]. 3.2.4 Lead - Market Performance: Shanghai lead index rose 0.38%, and LME lead rose [14]. - Industry Situation: Lead supply is increasing, and downstream demand is warming up in the short term but faces pressure in the medium term [14]. 3.2.5 Nickel - Market Performance: Shanghai nickel rose 0.05% [15]. - Industry Situation: Nickel supply is in surplus, and stainless steel demand is weak. Nickel prices are expected to be volatile [15]. 3.2.6 Tin - Market Performance: Shanghai tin fell 0.05% [16]. - Industry Situation: Tin supply is low, and demand is weak. Tin prices are expected to be volatile [16]. 3.2.7 Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: The MMLC index was flat, and the LC2511 contract fell 0.45% [17]. - Industry Situation: Lithium mica supply is shrinking, and the price is expected to be supported. Attention should be paid to overseas supply [17]. 3.2.8 Alumina - Market Performance: The alumina index fell 3.47% [18]. - Industry Situation: Ore supply is disturbed, and the Fed's dovish statement may support the price. It is recommended to wait and see [18]. 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - Market Performance: The stainless - steel main contract fell 0.31% [19]. - Industry Situation: Short - term demand is weak, but it is expected to improve with the arrival of the peak season [20]. 3.2.10 Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Performance: The AD2511 contract fell 0.32% [21]. - Industry Situation: The downstream is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and the price may rise, but there is delivery pressure [21]. 3.3 Black Building Materials 3.3.1 Steel - Market Performance: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices fell [23]. - Industry Situation: Steel demand is weak, inventory is accumulating, and prices may continue to decline if demand does not improve [24]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - Market Performance: The iron ore main contract fell 1.33% [26]. - Industry Situation: Overseas shipments are stable, demand is flat, and inventory is rising slightly. Iron ore prices are expected to be volatile [27]. 3.3.3 Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: Spot prices are stable, inventory is rising slightly, and prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [28]. - Soda Ash: Spot prices are stable, inventory pressure is decreasing, and prices are expected to be volatile in the short term and gradually rise in the long term [29]. 3.3.4 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market Performance: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices fell [31]. - Industry Situation: Iron alloy prices are affected by market sentiment. It is recommended for speculative funds to wait and see and for hedging funds to participate [32]. 3.3.5 Industrial Silicon - Market Performance: The industrial silicon main contract fell 1.84% [34]. - Industry Situation: Supply is increasing, demand support is limited, and prices are expected to be volatile [35]. 3.3.6 Polysilicon - Market Performance: The polysilicon main contract fell 1.15% [36]. - Industry Situation: It is in a "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern, and prices are expected to be highly volatile [36]. 3.4 Energy Chemicals 3.4.1 Rubber - Market Performance: NR and RU were in a volatile consolidation [38]. - Industry Situation: There are different views on the rise and fall. It is expected that rubber prices will be volatile and slightly upward [39][42]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil - Market Performance: WTI fell 2.21%, Brent fell 2.17%, and INE rose 0.66% [43]. - Industry Situation: The fundamentals are healthy, but seasonal demand may limit the upside. The short - term target price for WTI is $70.4/barrel [43]. 3.4.3 Methanol - Market Performance: The 01 contract fell [44]. - Industry Situation: Supply is increasing, demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [44]. 3.4.4 Urea - Market Performance: The 01 contract fell [45]. - Industry Situation: Supply pressure exists, demand is weak, and it is recommended to go long on dips [45][46]. 3.4.5 Styrene - Market Performance: Spot and futures prices fell, and the basis strengthened [47]. - Industry Situation: Cost support exists, inventory is rising, and prices may rebound after inventory reduction [47]. 3.4.6 PVC - Market Performance: The 01 contract fell [49]. - Industry Situation: Supply is strong, demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [49]. 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - Market Performance: The EG01 contract fell [50]. - Industry Situation: Supply is still in surplus, and there is downward pressure on valuation in the medium term [50][51]. 3.4.8 PTA - Market Performance: The PTA01 contract rose [52]. - Industry Situation: Supply is decreasing, demand is improving, and it is recommended to go long on dips [52]. 3.4.9 Para - Xylene - Market Performance: The PX11 contract rose [53]. - Industry Situation: PX load is high, and there is support for valuation. It is recommended to go long on dips [53]. 3.4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - Market Performance: Futures prices fell [54]. - Industry Situation: Cost support exists, inventory is decreasing, and prices may rise [54]. 3.4.11 Polypropylene (PP) - Market Performance: Futures prices fell [56]. - Industry Situation: Supply and demand are weak, and it is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract on dips [56]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Live Pigs - Market Performance: Pig prices fell [58]. - Industry Situation: Supply is excessive, and the market is in a range - bound pattern [58]. 3.5.2 Eggs - Market Performance: Egg prices were stable or rose [59]. - Industry Situation: The egg market is in a supply - surplus cycle, and it is recommended to reduce short positions or short on rebounds [59]. 3.5.3 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Market Performance: US soybeans rose slightly, and domestic soybean meal was relatively weak [60]. - Industry Situation: Supply is sufficient, and it is recommended to go long on dips in the cost - range low [60][61]. 3.5.4 Oils and Fats - Market Performance: Domestic oils and fats were weakly volatile [63]. - Industry Situation: There are multiple factors supporting the price, and palm oil is expected to be volatile and slightly upward [63][64]. 3.5.5 Sugar - Market Performance: Zhengzhou sugar futures prices fell [65]. - Industry Situation: International and domestic supply is increasing, and prices are likely to continue to decline [65]. 3.5.6 Cotton - Market Performance: Zhengzhou cotton futures prices were volatile [66]. - Industry Situation: Fundamentals are expected to improve, and prices may rise in the short term [66].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term macro upward drive is marginally strengthening, with the market focusing on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies [2][3]. - Different asset classes are expected to show short - term range - bound trends, and specific investment strategies vary according to different sectors. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - Overseas: The attempt to remove Fed Governor Cook has raised concerns about central bank independence, leading to a decline in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, and an increase in global risk appetite. - Domestic: China's economic data in July slowed down and fell short of expectations. Policy stimulus has been strengthened, and the short - term external risk uncertainty has decreased while domestic easing expectations have increased, resulting in an overall increase in domestic risk appetite. - Asset Recommendations: Stocks are expected to oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; bonds are expected to oscillate at a high level, and cautious observation is advised; commodities in different sectors are generally expected to oscillate in the short term, and cautious observation is recommended [2]. Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as rare earth concepts, biomedicine, and small metals, the domestic stock market declined slightly. - With the strengthening of policy stimulus, the reduction of short - term external risk uncertainty, and the increase in domestic easing expectations, the short - term macro upward drive is marginally strengthening. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - Gold prices are supported in the short term due to increased concerns about independence, rising risk of stagflation, and strengthened rate - cut expectations. However, attention should be paid to the Fed's attitude changes, and the market focus is on the upcoming US PCE data [4][5]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot and futures markets of steel continued to be weak. Demand was weak, inventory increased, and supply was expected to decline in the future. With strong cost support, a range - bound approach is recommended in the short term [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore declined. With strong northern production - restriction expectations, cautious procurement by steel mills, and increasing supply pressure, a range - bound approach is expected in the short term [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices were flat, and the futures prices declined slightly. Supply in some regions was increasing, but there were potential production - cut plans. A range - bound approach is recommended in the short term [7][8]. - **Soda Ash**: There is a situation of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. The supply - side contradiction is the core factor suppressing prices. It is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term [9]. - **Glass**: Supply is stable, demand is difficult to increase significantly, and it is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term under the boost of real - estate news [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The impact of Trump's attempt to remove Cook on the copper market is expected to be small in the short term, and domestic demand is expected to weaken marginally [10][11]. - **Aluminum**: The price declined slightly. The fundamentals changed little, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term with limited upward space [11]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, production costs are rising, and demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short term with limited upward space [11]. - **Tin**: Supply is expected to be relatively loose in the long term, and demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with limited upward space [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: After the previous sentiment subsided, it is expected to oscillate in a wide range, with a short - term bearish and long - term bullish outlook [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It is expected to oscillate in a range, considering the high - level oscillation of black metals and polysilicon [13]. - **Polysilicon**: It is facing a game between strong expectations and weak reality, and is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Concerns about the Fed's independence and the potential impact of US tariffs on India's oil imports have affected oil prices. There is still some support for oil prices in the near term [16]. - **Asphalt**: Supported by anti - involution in the petrochemical industry and rising crude oil prices, but with limited inventory reduction, it is expected to remain weakly oscillating in the near term [16]. - **PX**: It is in a tight situation in the short term and is expected to oscillate while waiting for changes in PTA device operations [16]. - **PTA**: Driven by capacity adjustments and increased downstream demand, it is expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillating pattern in the short term [17]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Port inventory has decreased slightly. Supported by downstream demand recovery, but facing supply pressure, short - term buying on dips should pay attention to crude oil cost fluctuations [18][19]. - **Short - fiber**: Driven by sector resonance, its price increased slightly. It is expected to follow the polyester sector and may be shorted on rallies in the medium term [19]. - **Methanol**: The fundamentals are showing marginal improvement, but the oversupply situation remains. It is expected to oscillate in price [19]. - **PP**: Supply pressure is increasing, but there is policy support. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract should focus on peak - season inventory - building [19]. - **LLDPE**: Supply pressure remains, and demand shows signs of turning. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract should focus on demand and inventory - building [19]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The selling pressure of US Treasuries has increased, and the weakening of the US dollar has provided some support to commodities. The expected Sino - US trade negotiations have boosted the export sales expectations of US soybeans [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The pressure of continuous inventory accumulation of domestic soybean and soybean meal in oil mills has eased. Rapeseed meal still has the basis for upward fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the development of Sino - Canadian trade relations [21]. - **Oils**: Rapeseed oil inventory is decreasing, and the supply is expected to shrink; soybean oil is expected to have a low - valuation price - increase market; palm oil is expected to enter an oscillating phase [21]. - **Corn**: The national corn price is running weakly. The futures price has entered a relatively low - valuation range, and there is a low possibility of breaking through the previous range [21]. - **Pigs**: The weight of pigs has declined, and the second - fattening market is cautious. The market's pessimistic sentiment about the fourth - quarter outlook has increased [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, hurricane expectations, and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand decline in mid - August will limit its upside. A short - term target price of $70.4/barrel for WTI is given, suggesting short - term long positions on dips and taking profits, and left - side trading for September's Russia geopolitical expectations and hurricane - induced supply disruptions [2]. - For methanol, the cost has increased due to rising coal prices, domestic supply is increasing, and overseas imports are expected to rise. The demand is currently weak, but there are expectations for the peak season and the return of MTO. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and focus on positive spread opportunities after the improvement of supply - demand [4]. - Urea faces a situation of low valuation and weak supply - demand. The supply pressure remains, and the domestic demand lacks support. The main demand variable is exports. It is recommended to consider long positions on dips [6]. - For rubber, it is expected that the rubber price will fluctuate strongly. A neutral - long approach is suggested, with short - term long positions on pullbacks and quick entry and exit. Partial liquidation of the strategy of going long RU2601 and shorting RU2509 is recommended [13]. - PVC has a poor fundamental situation with strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. It is recommended to wait and see [15]. - For styrene, the long - term BZN spread is expected to recover. When the inventory de - stocking inflection point appears, the styrene price may rebound [18]. - Polyethylene is expected to have an upward - trending price in the long - run, and it is recommended to wait and see [20]. - For polypropylene, it is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract on dips [21]. - PX is expected to maintain low inventories, and there are opportunities to go long on dips following crude oil during the peak season [24]. - PTA's supply - demand pattern has changed from inventory accumulation to de - stocking, and there are opportunities to go long on dips following PX [25]. - Ethylene glycol has an oversupply situation in the medium - term, and there is downward pressure on its valuation [26]. Summary by Catalog Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures fell $1.43, or 2.21%, to $63.31; Brent main crude oil futures fell $1.49, or 2.17%, to $67.25; INE main crude oil futures rose 3.20 yuan, or 0.66%, to 488.8 yuan [1]. - **Inventory Data**: In the weekly data of Fujairah Port's oil products, gasoline inventory decreased by 1.09 million barrels to 6.97 million barrels, a 13.47% decline; diesel inventory decreased by 0.82 million barrels to 1.46 million barrels, a 35.88% decline; fuel oil inventory increased by 0.43 million barrels to 7.18 million barrels, a 6.30% increase; total refined oil inventory decreased by 1.48 million barrels to 15.61 million barrels, an 8.65% decline [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 26, the 01 contract fell 29 yuan/ton to 2395 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 22 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 120 [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: Coal prices are rising, domestic supply is increasing, overseas imports are expected to rise rapidly. The demand from port MTO plants is temporarily stopped and expected to resume at the end of the month, and traditional demand is weak [4]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and focus on positive spread opportunities after the improvement of supply - demand [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 26, the 01 contract fell 8 yuan/ton to 1737 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained stable, with a basis of - 47 [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily production is at a high level, and the enterprise profit is at a low level. The domestic demand is weak, and the main demand variable is exports [6]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to consider long positions on dips [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU are oscillating and consolidating [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: Bulls believe in factors such as weather in Southeast Asia, seasonal trends, and improved demand expectations in China; bears are concerned about uncertain macro - expectations, seasonal demand slumps, and less - than - expected supply benefits [10]. - **Industry Situation**: As of August 21, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 64.54%, up 1.47 percentage points from last week and 6.25 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 74.38%, up 2.13 percentage points from last week and down 4.28 percentage points from the same period last year [11]. - **Inventory**: As of August 18, 2024, China's natural rubber social inventory was 121.7 million tons, up 0.4 million tons or 0.34% from the previous period; as of August 17, 2025, the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao was 48.54 (- 0.18) million tons [12]. - **Strategy**: It is expected that the rubber price will fluctuate strongly. A neutral - long approach is suggested, with short - term long positions on pullbacks and quick entry and exit. Partial liquidation of the strategy of going long RU2601 and shorting RU2509 is recommended [13]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract fell 48 yuan to 4999 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4760 (- 10) yuan/ton, the basis was - 239 (+ 38) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 145 (+ 9) yuan/ton [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: The overall operating rate of PVC decreased, the downstream operating rate decreased slightly, the factory inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased. The enterprise profit is at a high level, and the export expectation is weak [15]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see [15]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot and futures prices of styrene fell, and the basis strengthened [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: The macro - sentiment is good, the cost support remains, the BZN spread has room to recover, the supply is increasing, the port inventory is accumulating, and the demand is rising [17][18]. - **Strategy**: When the inventory de - stocking inflection point appears, the styrene price may rebound [18]. Polyolefins Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of polyethylene fell, and the spot price rose [20]. - **Supply and Demand**: The market expects favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in Q3, the cost support remains, the inventory is being depleted, and the demand for agricultural film raw materials is starting to stockpile [20]. - **Strategy**: The long - term price is expected to oscillate upward [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of polypropylene fell, and the spot price remained stable [21]. - **Supply and Demand**: A new integrated device has been put into production, the demand - side operating rate is oscillating at a low level, and the inventory pressure is high [21]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract on dips [21]. PX, PTA, and MEG PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 24 yuan to 6994 yuan, and the PX CFR rose $5 to $864 [23]. - **Supply and Demand**: The PX load is at a high level, the downstream PTA has many unexpected short - term maintenance, the overall load center is low, but due to new PTA device put - ins, PX is expected to maintain low inventories [23][24]. - **Strategy**: There are opportunities to go long on dips following crude oil during the peak season [24]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract rose 8 yuan to 4870 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 20 yuan/ton to 4870 yuan [25]. - **Supply and Demand**: The PTA load decreased, the downstream load increased, and the inventory decreased. The supply - demand pattern has changed from inventory accumulation to de - stocking [25]. - **Strategy**: There are opportunities to go long on dips following PX [25]. MEG - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract fell 19 yuan to 4490 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 11 yuan to 4553 yuan [26]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of ethylene glycol is increasing, the downstream load is increasing, the port inventory is decreasing, but there is an oversupply situation in the medium - term [26]. - **Strategy**: There is downward pressure on its valuation in the medium - term [26].

Group 1: Economic and Market Overview - The market is experiencing fluctuations due to concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve following Trump's attempts to dismiss a board member, leading to a decline in the dollar index by 0.21% to 98.19 [3][10] - Gold prices have risen, closing at $3393.7 per ounce, up 0.83%, while silver increased by 0.12% to $38.61 per ounce, indicating a shift towards safe-haven assets amid market uncertainty [3][7] - International crude oil prices have dropped, with WTI crude falling 2.27% to $63.15 per barrel and Brent crude down 2.13% to $66.75 per barrel, reflecting concerns over global trade tensions and potential supply disruptions [3][7] Group 2: Stock Market Performance - U.S. stock indices showed slight gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.3%, S&P 500 rising 0.4%, and Nasdaq increasing by 0.44%, while Chinese stocks like NIO and XPeng saw significant gains [4] - European stock indices collectively declined, with Germany's DAX30 down 0.5%, the UK's FTSE 100 down 0.6%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 down 1.11% [4] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index closed down 1.18% at 25524.92, with notable movements in sectors such as transportation and precious metals, while semiconductor and pharmaceutical stocks faced declines [5] Group 3: Domestic Developments - The Chinese government is pushing forward with initiatives in artificial intelligence, emphasizing the need for innovation in AI chips and software ecosystems [11] - The State Council is focusing on enhancing service trade openness and aligning with international high-standard economic rules [11] - Recent developments include Trump's threats of high tariffs on rare earth magnets, which could impact trade relations with China [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, oscillating stronger, and slightly rising on Tuesday. The price center slightly moved up to the 15,885 yuan/ton level during the session, and closed slightly up 0.28% to 15,885 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 month spread discount widened to 995 yuan/ton. With the game between the improvement of macro - expectations and the negative factors of the industry, it is expected that the contract may maintain an oscillating and slightly stronger trend in the future [4]. - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract showed a trend of decreasing volume, increasing positions, oscillating weakly, and slightly falling on Tuesday. The price reached a maximum of 2,430 yuan/ton and a minimum of 2,392 yuan/ton, and closed down 1.16% to 2,395 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 month spread discount widened to 123 yuan/ton. Affected by the decline of domestic coal futures prices and the weak supply - demand structure of methanol, it is expected that the contract may maintain an oscillating and slightly weaker trend in the future [4]. - The domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract showed a trend of decreasing volume, decreasing positions, oscillating stronger, and slightly rising on Tuesday. The price reached a maximum of 500.8 yuan/barrel and a minimum of 494.0 yuan/barrel, and closed slightly up 0.53% to 496.1 yuan/barrel. With the digestion of previous negative factors and the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, it is expected that domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices may maintain an oscillating and stable trend in the future [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of August 24, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 606,200 tons, a decrease of 10,500 tons or 1.71% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 73,300 tons, a decrease of 4.70%, and the general trade inventory was 532,900 tons, a decrease of 1.28%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouse decreased by 3.71 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.57 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse decreased by 0.73 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.32 percentage points [8]. - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of domestic semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.87%, a slight week - on - week increase of 2.76 percentage points and a significant year - on - year decrease of 7.81 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.97%, a slight week - on - week increase of 2.35 percentage points and a significant year - on - year increase of 7.01 percentage points [8]. - In July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.591 million and 2.593 million respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 7.3% and 10.7% respectively, and a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and 14.7% respectively. From January to July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 18.235 million and 18.269 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12% respectively. The growth rate of production and sales expanded by 0.2 and 0.6 percentage points respectively compared with January - June [9]. - In July 2025, China's automobile exports were 575,000, a year - on - year increase of 22.6%. From January to July 2025, China's automobile exports were 3.68 million, a year - on - year increase of 12.8% [9]. - In July 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 83,000, a month - on - month decrease of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 42% compared with 58,300 in the same period last year. From January to July, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 622,000, a year - on - year increase of about 11% [9]. Methanol - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 80.65%, a slight week - on - week increase of 1.65%, a slight month - on - month decrease of 1.01%, and a slight year - on - year increase of 4.82%. The average weekly methanol output in China reached 1.8974 million tons, a slight week - on - week increase of 34,100 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease of 1,500 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons compared with 1.7474 million tons last year [10]. - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 30.45%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.32%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was maintained at 8.80%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.37%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 85.68%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.88%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 55.12%, a week - on - week increase of 0%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 79.30%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.58 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 2.88% [10]. - As of August 22, 2025, the domestic methanol to olefin futures盘面 profit was - 172 yuan/ton, a slight week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton and a slight month - on - month increase of 31 yuan/ton [10]. - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was maintained at 934,200 tons, a slight week - on - week increase of 43,100 tons, a significant month - on - month increase of 347,100 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 144,600 tons. As of the week of August 21, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 310,900 tons, a slight week - on - week increase of 15,200 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease of 29,000 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 99,700 tons compared with 410,600 tons last year [11]. Crude Oil - As of the week of August 15, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling platforms was 412, a slight week - on - week increase of 1 and a decrease of 71 compared with the same period last year. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.382 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 55,000 barrels/day and a slight year - on - year decrease of 18,000 barrels/day [11]. - As of the week of August 15, 2025, US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 421 million barrels, a significant week - on - week decrease of 6.014 million barrels and a significant year - on - year decrease of 5.345 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, USA reached 23.47 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 419,000 barrels; the US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory reached 403 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 223,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was maintained at 96.6%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.2 percentage points, a slight month - on - month increase of 1.1 percentage points, and a significant year - on - year increase of 4.3 percentage points [12]. - As of August 19, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 120,209 contracts, a significant week - on - week increase of 3,467 contracts and a significant decrease of 62,961 contracts or 34.37% compared with the July average of 183,170 contracts. As of August 19, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 176,893 contracts, a significant week - on - week decrease of 22,927 contracts and a significant decrease of 43,183 contracts or 19.62% compared with the July average of 220,076 contracts [13]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,950 yuan/ton | +100 yuan/ton | 15,885 yuan/ton | - 20 yuan/ton | - 935 yuan/ton | +120 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,300 yuan/ton | - 22 yuan/ton | 2,395 yuan/ton | - 29 yuan/ton | - 95 yuan/ton | +7 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 467.9 yuan/barrel | +0.2 yuan/barrel | 496.1 yuan/barrel | +3.2 yuan/barrel | - 28.3 yuan/barrel | - 3.1 yuan/barrel | [14] 3.3 Related Charts - Rubber: There are charts including rubber basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, all - steel tire start - up rate trend, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, semi - steel tire start - up rate trend, and rubber 9 - 1 month spread [15][17][19] - Methanol: There are charts including methanol basis, methanol 9 - 1 month spread, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol to olefin start - up rate change, methanol inland social inventory, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [28][30][32] - Crude Oil: There are charts including crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery start - up rate, WTI crude oil net position holding change, and Brent crude oil net position holding change [40][42][44]

Group 1: Gold Market - The dovish speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell at the Jackson Hole conference has significantly increased expectations for future interest rate cuts, with the probability of a September rate cut rising above 90% [2] - New York Fed President Williams stated that the era of low neutral interest rates in the U.S. is not over, contrary to some Fed officials' views that neutral rates are rising due to inflation [2] - Analyst Owen from Baillie Gifford believes that the dovish stance from Powell supports the likelihood of gold prices rising further, with short-term support at $3,363 and resistance at $3,392 [2] Group 2: Oil Market - Saudi Arabia's oil exports fell by 15.8% year-on-year in Q3, with export revenue dropping from 74.7% to 67.9%, although non-oil exports increased by 17.8% in Q2, offsetting some losses [3] - Attacks on Russian energy facilities by Ukraine have disrupted oil exports, providing short-term support for oil prices [3] - Oil prices reached a high of $65 but then retreated; if prices do not recover above $64.50, the potential for a rebound may end, while a breakthrough above $65 could target $67.50 [3] Group 3: Dollar Index - President Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Cook raises concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, as Trump's nominee may strengthen his control over the Fed [4] - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee noted mixed economic data, indicating potential action in September, while Boston Fed President Collins is open to rate cuts due to tariff policies and a slowing labor market [4] - The dollar index experienced a quick drop but rebounded, with expectations of trading within the 97.50-99 range [4] Group 4: Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has been in a continuous decline since last week, with the support level at 42,500 breached, indicating that the downward trend is likely to continue [6] - Short-term resistance is noted at 42,650, while support is observed at the 42,000 level [6] Group 5: Copper Market - Copper prices experienced a significant drop at the end of July, with the previous bullish trend halted, and the market has been maintaining a weak rebound [7] - The focus for this week is on the resistance level at $4.50; if breached, a larger rebound may occur, while support is at $4.42, with a potential drop to $4.37 if this level is broken [7]

来源：智昇财论 黄金方面：上周五（8月22日）晚间，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会上发表鸽派讲话，一度 点燃了华尔街对未来降息的预期。9月降息的概率上升至90%之上，鲍威尔表示鉴于当前的美国经济， 美联储可能需要调整政策立场。 芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比表示，近期的经济数据好坏参半，9月份可能会采取行动。波士顿联储主席柯 林斯表示，受关税政策和劳动力市场放缓的影响，对9月份的降息持开放态度。 技术面：美元上周五（8月22日）短线快速下挫，昨日持续反弹，重回下跌的起点，下跌走势并未延 续，后续处于97.50-99区间震荡的概率大。 纽约联储主席威廉姆斯表示，美国中性利率持续处于低位的时代并未结束，与美联储部分官员认为的 （美国中性利率因通胀而上升）观点相反。同时还表示，考虑到一些评估经济因素的不确定性，低利率 将在某个时候回归。 智昇研究黄金高级分析师欧文认为，美联储主席鲍威尔发表鸽派讲话，使得未来降息的预期大幅增强， 黄金受此支撑进一步走高的概率大。 技术面：黄金上周五自3320美元一线快速上涨，多头强劲。今日早间短线下挫，但多头走势未改，进一 步震荡走高的概率大。短线下方关注3363美元的支撑，上方可以看 ...

Core Insights - The trade volume between China and the Arab League reached a record high of 1.72 trillion yuan in the first seven months of the year, marking a 3.2% year-on-year increase [1] - In July alone, China's imports and exports with the Arab League amounted to 245.31 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 6.9% [1] - China's exports of mechanical and electrical products to the Arab League totaled 557.66 billion yuan, a significant increase of 22% year-on-year, accounting for nearly 60% of total exports to the region [1] Trade Dynamics - China imported over 40% of its crude oil from the Arab League, with increases in imports of natural gas, refined oil, and metal ores, ensuring stable energy resource supply [1] - The trade structure between China and the Arab League is characterized by strong economic complementarity and mutual benefits, providing sustained momentum for economic cooperation [2] Agricultural Cooperation - China is deepening agricultural cooperation with the Arab League, supporting modern agricultural development and expanding imports of distinctive agricultural products from the region [1] - Exports of agricultural machinery and crop seeds from China to the Arab League grew by 10.5% and 10.4% respectively, while imports of specific products like Omani seafood and Egyptian frozen strawberries saw significant increases [1]