1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Stock Index: Volatile pattern [1] - Treasury Bonds: Bearish pattern [1] - Gold: Bullish pattern [4] - Silver: Bullish pattern [4] - Non - ferrous Metals (Copper): Volatile pattern [4] - Non - ferrous Metals (Aluminum, Alumina): Aluminum - Volatile pattern; Alumina - Bearish pattern [4] - Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel): Volatile [4] - Carbonate Lithium: Cautiously bearish [6] - Silicon Energy: Bearish pattern [6] - Steel and Iron Ore (Rebar, Hot - rolled Coil, Iron Ore): Volatile pattern [5][7] - Coking Coal and Coke: Volatile pattern [7] - Soda Ash and Glass: Volatile pattern [7] - Crude Oil: Volatile pattern [9] - Methanol: Volatile pattern [9] - Polyolefins: Bearish pattern [9] - Cotton: Bearish pattern [9] - Rubber: Cautiously bullish [9] 2. Core Views - The market is in a structural situation with cautious sentiment. The decline in trading volume and short - term slowdown of incremental funds limit the overall rise of the stock market. The bond market is under pressure due to economic data differentiation and policy expectations. In the commodity market, factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy changes, and macro - economic data influence the trends of different varieties [1][4][6][9] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Stock Index - The A - share market was weakly sorted on Tuesday, with the ChiNext leading the decline. Trading volume decreased to 2.15 trillion yuan (previous value 2.46 trillion). The real estate and banking sectors led the gains, while the electronics and computer industries led the losses. The stock index futures fell, but the overall decline was smaller than that of the spot index. The market is in a volatile pattern due to cautious sentiment, profit - taking pressure, and short - term slowdown of incremental funds [1] Treasury Bonds - The bond market continued to weaken across the board, with the TL contract having the most significant decline. Domestic economic data is still differentiated. The central bank made a small - scale net withdrawal in the open market, and the capital cost continued to rise. The market's concerns about the bond market intensified, and the upward pressure persisted [1] Precious Metals - The large downward revision of the non - farm employment benchmark in the US further confirmed the cooling of the employment market. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates once in September rose to 93%. The upward trend of gold and silver prices remains unchanged, and it is recommended to hold the previous long positions of AU2512 and AG2512 [4] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price continued to oscillate at a high level. The market's expectation of interest rate cuts was strengthened, but the concern about recession also increased. The dollar index rebounded slightly. The supply of the mining end was tense, and the demand was affected by the high - price aversion. The copper price was supported by the weak dollar and tight supply [4] - **Aluminum and Alumina**: The alumina price continued to weaken, and the Shanghai aluminum price increased slightly. The alumina was in a bearish pattern with an expected supply surplus, while the domestic and overseas aluminum inventories were low, and the price was resilient [4] - **Nickel**: The supply of the nickel mining end was loose, and the refined nickel was in an oversupply situation. The price was affected by the fundamentals and showed a volatile and weak trend, but the downward space was relatively limited [4] Carbonate Lithium - The news of the potential resumption of production at the Jianxiawo Mine may lead to a decline in lithium prices. It is necessary to verify the authenticity of the news and the actual progress of resumption [6] Silicon Energy - **Industrial Silicon**: In September, the supply - demand pattern turned to an increase in supply and a decrease in demand. The market was mainly under pressure and oscillating [6] - **Polysilicon**: The market's expectation of policies such as capacity storage and joint production restriction fermented, but the fundamentals had no signs of improvement. The supply was loose, and the price was suppressed [6] Steel and Iron Ore - **Rebar**: The spot price fluctuated slightly, and the inventory increased against the season. The supply was not effectively restricted, and the demand in the peak season needed to be verified. It is recommended to hold the arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on rebar in the January contract [5] - **Hot - rolled Coil**: The spot price was stable with a slight increase. The fundamentals of steel were accumulating contradictions, but the terminal demand was expected to improve. It is recommended to hold the strategy of going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coil to short the steel mill's profit [5] - **Iron Ore**: The consumption of imported iron ore in September was supported by high blast furnace iron - making and pre - holiday replenishment. The supply and demand contradiction was limited, and the price was supported. It is recommended to hold the long - iron - ore and short - rebar arbitrage strategy in the January contract [5][7] Coking Coal and Coke - **Coking Coal**: The coal mines were in the resumption stage, and the coal price was under pressure, but the downward space was limited [7] - **Coke**: The first round of price cuts of 50 - 55 yuan/ton was basically implemented. The coking enterprises still had a certain profit space, but the futures price was under pressure [7] Soda Ash and Glass - **Soda Ash**: The daily production decreased slightly. Although the supply exceeded demand, the short - term delivery was okay, and the inventory increase of alkali plants was slower than expected. The anti - involution expectation was the key to the future price direction [7] - **Float Glass**: The supply did not significantly shrink, and the high inventory was difficult to digest. The demand might improve seasonally. Whether the anti - involution expectation was falsified determined the future price trend. It is recommended to hold the long positions of the 01 contract below 1200 with a stop - loss [7] Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical events caused short - term price fluctuations, but the market's expectation of supply surplus remained unchanged, which continued to suppress the oil price [9] - **Methanol**: The demand for olefin procurement provided support. The methanol market showed a pattern of weakness in coastal areas and strength in inland areas. The futures price was in a stalemate, and it was recommended to sell the C2300 option [9] - **Polyolefins**: The increase in Middle - East production and the narrowing of the domestic - foreign price difference led to an increase in import offers. The inventory at all levels was higher than last year, and the price was in a downward trend [9] Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: The new cotton harvest is expected to be abundant, and it is expected to be listed earlier. The demand has not shown obvious peak - season performance. The Zhengzhou cotton may run weakly and oscillate [9] - **Rubber**: The market sentiment weakened, but the fundamentals supported the price. The demand for tires was positive, the new rubber output was affected by the climate, and the inventory was decreasing [9]

地产销售边际改善，耐用品增长乏力 [Table_Authors] 方奕(分析师) 中观景气 9 月第 1 期 本报告导读： 地产政策优化，楼市景气边际改善；耐用品增长乏力，受高基数影响，8 月乘用车零 售增速继续放缓，开学周服务景气有所回落；降息预期提升，金价大幅上涨。 投资要点： | | 021-38031658 | | --- | --- | | | fangyi2@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880520120005 | | | 陶前陈(研究助理) | | | 0755-23976164 | | | taoqianchen@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880125070014 | | | 张逸飞(分析师) | | | 021-38038662 | | | zhangyifei@gtht.com | [Table_Report] 相关报告 海外降息节奏临近，国内基金费率改革 2025.09.09 融资资金流入放缓，交易压力集中释放 2025.09.07 成交活跃度下降，创业板指估值领涨 2025.09.06 资产概览：金价创新高，新兴权益亮眼 2025.09.06 海纳百川 ...

- The report tracks multiple market factors, including stock market factors, commodity market factors, options market factors, and convertible bond market factors, providing a comprehensive analysis of market dynamics during the period from September 1 to September 5, 2025 [1][10][11] - **Stock Market Factors**: The report highlights the following: - **Market Style**: Large-cap style outperformed small-cap, and value style significantly outperformed growth style [11][13] - **Market Style Volatility**: Volatility in large-cap vs. small-cap styles increased, while volatility in value vs. growth styles decreased [11][13] - **Market Structure**: Industry index excess return dispersion and industry rotation speed increased, while the proportion of rising constituent stocks decreased. Additionally, the concentration of trading in the top 100 stocks increased, while the top 5 industries' trading concentration remained unchanged [11][13] - **Market Activity**: Both market volatility and turnover rate continued to rise [12][13] - **Commodity Market Factors**: The report identifies the following: - **Trend Strength**: The energy and chemical sectors showed increased trend strength, while other sectors remained stable [19][26] - **Basis Momentum**: Basis momentum for the black and energy sectors increased [19][26] - **Volatility**: Volatility in the black and precious metals sectors rose [19][26] - **Liquidity**: Liquidity performance varied across sectors [19][26] - **Options Market Factors**: The report notes: - Implied volatility for the SSE 50 and CSI 1000 indices remained high but showed marginal easing. The skew of put options for the SSE 50 rose rapidly, while the CSI 1000 remained unchanged. Additionally, the discount for the CSI 1000 index narrowed, indicating increased market divergence and the rotation and diffusion of market hotspots [30] - **Convertible Bond Market Factors**: The report highlights: - The convertible bond market experienced a volatile week, with a decline followed by recovery. The valuation of bonds with a par conversion premium stabilized at a mid-level, while the proportion of low-conversion-premium bonds significantly adjusted. Low-premium bonds performed relatively better. Market trading volume slightly contracted but remained healthy, and credit spreads showed an upward trend [31]

Market Overview - The current market sentiment remains heated, with the A-share upward cycle not yet over, but transitioning from a unilateral rise to a "slow bull" phase, indicating potential short-term volatility [1][4] - Growth style shows greater elasticity supported by industrial trends and earnings growth prospects, while cyclical style remains more stable; a balanced approach is recommended for investors [1][4] Equity Market Analysis - Last week, the market style favored large-cap stocks, with value style significantly outperforming; the volatility of large and small-cap styles increased rapidly, while value and growth style volatility decreased [6][7] - The excess return dispersion of industry indices increased, indicating a rise in industry rotation speed, while the proportion of rising constituent stocks decreased, suggesting a weakening of the strong index trend [6] - The trading concentration increased, with the top 100 stocks' trading volume share rising, while the top five industries' trading volume share remained stable compared to the previous period [6] Market Activity - Market volatility and turnover rate continued to rise last week, indicating increased market activity [7] Commodity Market Insights - In the commodity market, the energy and chemical sector's trend strength increased, while other sectors remained stable; the basis differential momentum for black and energy sectors rose [21] - Volatility increased in the black and precious metals sectors, with liquidity performance showing divergence across sectors [21] Options Market Overview - Implied volatility for the SSE 50 and CSI 1000 remains high but has shown marginal easing; the skew of put options for the 50ETF has risen rapidly, while the CSI 1000 remains unchanged [25] Convertible Bond Market Analysis - The convertible bond market experienced a decline followed by recovery, with significant volatility; the premium rate for bonds convertible at 100 yuan stabilized at a mid-level [27] - The proportion of low premium convertible bonds has notably decreased, with these bonds performing relatively well; market trading volume has contracted but remains within a healthy range [27]

Group 1 - The market has surpassed 3800 points, reflecting the positive outcomes of China's capital market reforms and the ongoing recovery of the economic fundamentals [1] - The market is expected to present a "steady yet improving" pattern, driven by continuous policy benefits, economic resilience, and existing valuation advantages [2] - Investment strategies should focus on a "core + satellite" approach, allocating most positions to low-valued blue chips in cyclical and certain consumer sectors, while a smaller portion should target high-growth sectors like digital economy and specialized innovation [2] Group 2 - In a bullish market, it is crucial to balance the rhythm and structure of investments, with a recommendation to increase positions during market pullbacks to better control volatility [3] - Key indicators for assessing fundamental trends include net profit growth rates and return on equity (ROE), which are essential for evaluating potential stock returns [3] - There are three major downside risks to be aware of: structural economic risks, the transition from a "slow bull" to a "fast bull" market, and uncertainties in international policies [4][5]

Group 1 - The A-share market is currently experiencing volatility, with expectations of limited downside in the near term, but potential for significant fluctuations as the market digests recent gains [1] - Two possible market scenarios are identified: continued thematic speculation with a need for adjustment in the TMT sector, or increasing selling pressure leading to a prolonged downtrend [1] - The current market sentiment remains strong, suggesting a likelihood of sector rotation within growth industries, while relatively cheap consumer and low-position sectors may lack short-term momentum [1] Group 2 - Liquidity support remains, but significant selling pressure from the previous week indicates a need for market consolidation before seeking new upward opportunities [2] - A potential rebalancing between large and small caps is anticipated, with growth styles expected to outperform value styles in the near term [2] - Key investment themes to focus on include technology rotation (e.g., new energy, innovative pharmaceuticals, robotics), interest rate cut trades (e.g., non-bank financials), and sectors benefiting from inflation stabilization (e.g., materials, chemicals) [2]

Group 1 - The market has surpassed 3800 points, reflecting the positive outcomes of China's capital market reforms and the continuous recovery of the economic fundamentals [1] - The market is expected to present a "stable and improving" pattern, driven by ongoing policy benefits, economic resilience, and existing valuation advantages [2] - A "structural slow bull" market characteristic is anticipated, with investment strategies suggesting a "core + satellite" allocation approach [2][3] Group 2 - In an optimistic market environment, it is crucial to balance the rhythm and structure of investments, with a focus on adding positions during market pullbacks to control volatility [3] - Key indicators for assessing fundamental trends include net profit growth rates and return on equity (ROE), which are essential for evaluating long-term stock returns [3] - Investors should remain vigilant about three major downside risks, including structural economic risks, the potential shift from a "slow bull" to a "fast bull" market, and uncertainties in international policies [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown strong performance over the past year, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a nearly ten-year high, reflecting a significant shift in investor risk appetite [1] Market Performance - Since the "9.24" period last year, the Shanghai Composite Index has experienced a recovery from the bottom, followed by fluctuations and a subsequent rise [1] - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market has increased to around 3 trillion yuan, indicating a notable change in investor sentiment over the past year [1] Sector Performance - The technology growth style, driven by industrial trends, has performed well overall, with the STAR 50 and ChiNext Index both showing cumulative gains of over 90% [1] - Leading sectors in the past year include TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), non-ferrous metals, and high-end manufacturing, while the real estate chain, broad consumption, and some traditional cyclical industries have shown relatively flat performance [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes a positive outlook on the A-share market, suggesting a "slow bull" or "healthy bull" market trend, supported by favorable policies and increasing long-term capital inflows [1][2] - Analysts from Huaxi Strategy highlight that recent adjustments in the A-share market are primarily due to profit-taking and structural trading, with historical data indicating limited pullback duration and magnitude during bull markets [1][2] - The market is expected to benefit from the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could strengthen the RMB and attract foreign capital into Chinese assets [1][2] Group 2 - The strategy team from Xingzheng suggests that the market has experienced extreme structural differentiation, necessitating short-term volatility for digestion and consolidation, with a focus on structural adjustments rather than position adjustments [2][3] - Dongcai Strategy indicates an increased probability of wide fluctuations in the A-share index, with potential internal shifts within prosperous sectors, benefiting from the U.S. rate cut expectations and a weaker dollar [1][3] - The analysis from Citic Strategy points out that the current market adjustment is driven by accelerated previous gains and extreme structural differentiation, recommending a focus on sectors with growth potential and cyclical opportunities [2][3]

Market Overview - The market continues to operate in an upward trend, with the core observation variable being whether the market's profit-making effect can be sustained. As long as the profit-making effect remains positive, incremental funds are likely to continue entering the market [1][3][9] - The current WIND All A trend line is around 6030 points, with a profit-making effect of 1%, which is at a critical position but still positive. It is advised to hold patiently until the profit-making effect turns negative [1][3][9] - Short-term expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have increased, which may enhance global risk appetite [1][3][9] Investment Strategy - The Davis Double Strategy achieved an excess return of 3.24% this week, with a cumulative absolute return of 48.29% for the year [10] - The net profit gap strategy also reported an excess return of 0.00% this week, with a cumulative absolute return of 46.58% for the year [10][14] - The recommended position is 80%, indicating a moderate level of investment in the market [4] Sector Allocation - Mid-term sector allocation continues to recommend turnaround sectors, particularly Hong Kong innovative pharmaceuticals and securities insurance, which are expected to maintain an upward trend [2][3] - Policy-driven sectors such as chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and innovative energy are also anticipated to sustain upward momentum [2][3] - The TWO BETA model continues to recommend technology sectors, focusing on consumer electronics and computing power [2][3] Market Volatility - Current market volatility has increased significantly, with some sectors experiencing substantial fluctuations. It is recommended to maintain a balanced allocation and to increase exposure to previously lagging sectors to diversify risk [1][3][9]